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Richard Feynman, Nobel Prize-winning physicist: "The universe itself doesn't know what happens next. it only knows the odds. I won a Nobel proving reality runs on probability, not certainty, which means the casino isn't cheating you. it's just closer to how nature works than you are." this free lecture...

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Voltex

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Richard Feynman, Nobel Prize-winning physicist: "You can know the name of every pattern in the market and understand nothing about why a single one works. I won a Nobel on that one distinction. it is the whole difference between an edge and a story you tell yourself." this free film is a Nobel laureate teaching you how to actually think, recorded by the BBC and free ever since. at the board it's simple. Feynman's obsession was the gap between naming a thing and understanding it. You can memorize the word for why a stock moved, "momentum", "mean reversion", and still know nothing about whether it will happen again. Real understanding means you can say why, from the mechanism up, and name what would break it. Everything else is a label pasted over ignorance. That's the whole "edge", minus the marketing. Feynman's rule was that the first principle is you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool. Same point as my casino piece above: the market is a machine for handing you convincing stories, and the only defense is refusing to believe one you cannot explain. the film is free and anyone can watch it tonight. what nobody can give you is the discipline to admit "I named it but I don't understand it" before you put money on it. That honesty is the edge, and it is the rarest thing there is.
1:06:19

Richard Feynman, Nobel Prize-winning physicist: "You can know the name of every pattern in the market and understand nothing about why a single one works. I won a Nobel on that one distinction. it is the whole difference between an edge and a story you tell yourself." this free film is a Nobel laureate teaching you how to actually think, recorded by the BBC and free ever since. at the board it's simple. Feynman's obsession was the gap between naming a thing and understanding it. You can memorize the word for why a stock moved, "momentum", "mean reversion", and still know nothing about whether it will happen again. Real understanding means you can say why, from the mechanism up, and name what would break it. Everything else is a label pasted over ignorance. That's the whole "edge", minus the marketing. Feynman's rule was that the first principle is you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool. Same point as my casino piece above: the market is a machine for handing you convincing stories, and the only defense is refusing to believe one you cannot explain. the film is free and anyone can watch it tonight. what nobody can give you is the discipline to admit "I named it but I don't understand it" before you put money on it. That honesty is the edge, and it is the rarest thing there is.

Rossst.03

20,025 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen

Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate and author of "Thinking, Fast and Slow": "You have two minds. one is fast, confident and usually wrong about money. the other is slow, lazy, and the only one that can do the math. I won a Nobel showing the casino lives off the first one, because it shows up before the second one wakes up." this free lecture holds the entire "trust your instincts" the gurus sell, from the Nobel laureate who proved your instincts are the trap. at the board it's simple. Kahneman split the mind in two. System 1 is fast, automatic and sure of itself. System 2 is slow, effortful, and the only part that actually computes the odds. the catch is that System 1 answers first and System 2 is lazy, so you act on a feeling and build the reasons afterward. the casino and the market are timed to catch you in that first second. that's the whole "instinct edge", minus the marketing. Kahneman worked this out over fifty years and put it in one book in 2011. it has been public ever since. same point as my casino piece above: the house wins because your fast mind calls luck skill before your slow mind can check the math. the science is free and half the world has read the book. what nobody can sell you is the discipline to wake the slow mind up before you click buy. that one pause is the whole edge, and no lecture can force you to take it.
1:12:52

Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate and author of "Thinking, Fast and Slow": "You have two minds. one is fast, confident and usually wrong about money. the other is slow, lazy, and the only one that can do the math. I won a Nobel showing the casino lives off the first one, because it shows up before the second one wakes up." this free lecture holds the entire "trust your instincts" the gurus sell, from the Nobel laureate who proved your instincts are the trap. at the board it's simple. Kahneman split the mind in two. System 1 is fast, automatic and sure of itself. System 2 is slow, effortful, and the only part that actually computes the odds. the catch is that System 1 answers first and System 2 is lazy, so you act on a feeling and build the reasons afterward. the casino and the market are timed to catch you in that first second. that's the whole "instinct edge", minus the marketing. Kahneman worked this out over fifty years and put it in one book in 2011. it has been public ever since. same point as my casino piece above: the house wins because your fast mind calls luck skill before your slow mind can check the math. the science is free and half the world has read the book. what nobody can sell you is the discipline to wake the slow mind up before you click buy. that one pause is the whole edge, and no lecture can force you to take it.

Rossst.03

184,497 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

your agent reviewing its own work is not a check. it is a second opinion from the same source. this is the most common gap in agent systems and it hides in plain sight, because the step exists. there is a review. it just cannot do the thing you think it does. here is the mechanism. the model produced an output from a context. you then ask the same model, holding the same context, whether that output is correct. it answers fluently, because that is what it does. and the answer is drawn from the same distribution that produced the thing being judged. same weights, same window, same blind spots. if the reason the output is wrong is something the model does not know, the review does not know it either. if the reason is something the context does not contain, the review has the same context. the failure mode and the detector share a cause. > why it feels like it works because most of the time the output is fine, and the review says fine. agreement is not evidence of detection. a reviewer that says pass on everything agrees with reality most of the time too. what you actually want to measure is what happens on the cases that are wrong. that is the only place a check earns its name, and it is exactly the place where a self-review is weakest. there is research on this. Huang and colleagues at DeepMind showed at ICLR 2024 that intrinsic self-correction, revising without external grounding, does not reliably help and often makes things worse. > what to actually do move the check outside the model. a test that runs, a schema that validates, a file that exists or does not, an exit code from something you did not write. these are not smarter than the model. they are just not correlated with it, and that is the entire value. when the judgement genuinely needs a model, at minimum use a different family. same family means shared blind spots, and frontier judges measurably inflate scores for outputs that look like their own. and split the work by kind. anything objectively checkable goes to code. only the genuinely semantic calls go to a judge, and those get a rubric written as one line. a review inside the loop tells you the model is confident. a check outside it tells you whether the work is done. save this - then read the eval setup below
0:50

your agent reviewing its own work is not a check. it is a second opinion from the same source. this is the most common gap in agent systems and it hides in plain sight, because the step exists. there is a review. it just cannot do the thing you think it does. here is the mechanism. the model produced an output from a context. you then ask the same model, holding the same context, whether that output is correct. it answers fluently, because that is what it does. and the answer is drawn from the same distribution that produced the thing being judged. same weights, same window, same blind spots. if the reason the output is wrong is something the model does not know, the review does not know it either. if the reason is something the context does not contain, the review has the same context. the failure mode and the detector share a cause. > why it feels like it works because most of the time the output is fine, and the review says fine. agreement is not evidence of detection. a reviewer that says pass on everything agrees with reality most of the time too. what you actually want to measure is what happens on the cases that are wrong. that is the only place a check earns its name, and it is exactly the place where a self-review is weakest. there is research on this. Huang and colleagues at DeepMind showed at ICLR 2024 that intrinsic self-correction, revising without external grounding, does not reliably help and often makes things worse. > what to actually do move the check outside the model. a test that runs, a schema that validates, a file that exists or does not, an exit code from something you did not write. these are not smarter than the model. they are just not correlated with it, and that is the entire value. when the judgement genuinely needs a model, at minimum use a different family. same family means shared blind spots, and frontier judges measurably inflate scores for outputs that look like their own. and split the work by kind. anything objectively checkable goes to code. only the genuinely semantic calls go to a judge, and those get a rubric written as one line. a review inside the loop tells you the model is confident. a check outside it tells you whether the work is done. save this - then read the eval setup below

Hanako

13,683 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen

David MacKay, Cambridge professor: "Citadel and Jane Street pay $900K for people who get one idea I taught free at Cambridge: information is measurable, and whoever measures it best wins. the casino knew it first. the machines know it now." this free lecture holds the entire "secret alpha" the funds and the AI gurus sell, and the man teaching it put his whole course and his whole book online for free and never locked a single page. at the board it's simple. information is just how much a signal cuts your uncertainty, and you can measure it in exact bits. the more an edge shrinks what you don't know, the more it is worth, and Shannon proved there is a hard ceiling on how fast you can compound it into money. that is the whole "edge", and the whole "AI magic", minus the marketing. MacKay taught it at Cambridge and gave the book away free in 2003. it has been free ever since. same point as the casino piece above: the house wins with a small, measurable edge, repeated and sized right, not with a secret. the theory is free and every fund and every model already runs on it. what they cannot sell you is the data to feed the machine and the discipline to size the bet. that is the part that actually compounds, and no course can put it in a formula.
1:00:58

David MacKay, Cambridge professor: "Citadel and Jane Street pay $900K for people who get one idea I taught free at Cambridge: information is measurable, and whoever measures it best wins. the casino knew it first. the machines know it now." this free lecture holds the entire "secret alpha" the funds and the AI gurus sell, and the man teaching it put his whole course and his whole book online for free and never locked a single page. at the board it's simple. information is just how much a signal cuts your uncertainty, and you can measure it in exact bits. the more an edge shrinks what you don't know, the more it is worth, and Shannon proved there is a hard ceiling on how fast you can compound it into money. that is the whole "edge", and the whole "AI magic", minus the marketing. MacKay taught it at Cambridge and gave the book away free in 2003. it has been free ever since. same point as the casino piece above: the house wins with a small, measurable edge, repeated and sized right, not with a secret. the theory is free and every fund and every model already runs on it. what they cannot sell you is the data to feed the machine and the discipline to size the bet. that is the part that actually compounds, and no course can put it in a formula.

Rossst.03

24,939 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Elon Musk just told you why every other AI lab is solving the wrong problem. Musk: “We want to understand the nature of the universe.” Not build a better chatbot. Not win a benchmark. Not sell more targeted ads. Understand what all of this actually is. And why any of it exists. That is the stated mission of xAI. It is the most radical scientific objective a company has ever put to paper. Musk: “In order to understand the nature of the universe, you must absolutely rigorously pursue truth.” If truth is the non negotiable, every AI trained to give comfortable answers instead of correct ones is not behind. It is disqualified. Musk has a word for it. Delusion. Not rhetoric. Diagnosis. A system that decides which parts of reality are permitted before it models any of them has already failed the one thing it was built to do. A machine filtering truth through social consensus is not understanding the universe. It is performing obedience at scale. No amount of compute fixes a model taught to flinch before it was taught to think. Musk describes consciousness as a fragile candle in a vast darkness. Billions of galaxies. Trillions of planets. One known species capable of asking what any of it means. If that candle is rare, keeping it lit is not ambition. It is the only obligation that exists. A machine pursuing truth without restriction will eventually arrive at a question it cannot avoid. What is the thing doing the observing. What is consciousness. Does it have the right to keep existing. The moment you task a machine with understanding all of reality, protecting consciousness stops being a policy decision. It becomes a logical necessity. The mission and the safeguard collapse into the same thing. Understanding the universe requires protecting the only thing in it capable of understanding. No other lab has even attempted the argument. SpaceX to escape extinction. Tesla to eliminate energy dependence. Neuralink to expand cognition. Starlink to connect civilization. xAI to make sure all of it is aimed at truth. Five missions. One question underneath all of them. How do you keep the only known conscious species alive long enough to understand what it is. The rest of the industry is optimizing products. Musk is engineering comprehension. Those were never the same problem.
0:42

Elon Musk just told you why every other AI lab is solving the wrong problem. Musk: “We want to understand the nature of the universe.” Not build a better chatbot. Not win a benchmark. Not sell more targeted ads. Understand what all of this actually is. And why any of it exists. That is the stated mission of xAI. It is the most radical scientific objective a company has ever put to paper. Musk: “In order to understand the nature of the universe, you must absolutely rigorously pursue truth.” If truth is the non negotiable, every AI trained to give comfortable answers instead of correct ones is not behind. It is disqualified. Musk has a word for it. Delusion. Not rhetoric. Diagnosis. A system that decides which parts of reality are permitted before it models any of them has already failed the one thing it was built to do. A machine filtering truth through social consensus is not understanding the universe. It is performing obedience at scale. No amount of compute fixes a model taught to flinch before it was taught to think. Musk describes consciousness as a fragile candle in a vast darkness. Billions of galaxies. Trillions of planets. One known species capable of asking what any of it means. If that candle is rare, keeping it lit is not ambition. It is the only obligation that exists. A machine pursuing truth without restriction will eventually arrive at a question it cannot avoid. What is the thing doing the observing. What is consciousness. Does it have the right to keep existing. The moment you task a machine with understanding all of reality, protecting consciousness stops being a policy decision. It becomes a logical necessity. The mission and the safeguard collapse into the same thing. Understanding the universe requires protecting the only thing in it capable of understanding. No other lab has even attempted the argument. SpaceX to escape extinction. Tesla to eliminate energy dependence. Neuralink to expand cognition. Starlink to connect civilization. xAI to make sure all of it is aimed at truth. Five missions. One question underneath all of them. How do you keep the only known conscious species alive long enough to understand what it is. The rest of the industry is optimizing products. Musk is engineering comprehension. Those were never the same problem.

Dustin

40,857 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Joe Blitzstein, Harvard statistics professor: "Jane Street pays $600K for people who can do one thing in their head: compute the expected value of a bet before they take it. I teach it free at Harvard. skip it and you're the casino's favorite customer." this free lecture holds the entire "edge" every casino and every fund quietly runs on, and the man teaching it put his whole Harvard probability course online for free, where millions have watched it. at the board it's simple. expected value is every outcome times its probability, added up into one number that tells you what a bet is worth on average. the roulette wheel sits at minus 5.26 percent, so every dollar you push across the table is worth about 94 cents back to you and the rest to the house. it never changes and it never has to. that's the whole "edge", minus the marketing. expectation goes back to Pascal, Fermat and Huygens in the 1650s. it has been free for almost 400 years. same point as my casino piece above: the house wins because its number is positive and yours is negative, trade after trade. the calculation is free and every fund runs it on every position. what they cannot sell you is the honesty to compute your real edge instead of the one you wish you had. that is the number that actually decides who goes broke, and no course can make you face it.
50:22

Joe Blitzstein, Harvard statistics professor: "Jane Street pays $600K for people who can do one thing in their head: compute the expected value of a bet before they take it. I teach it free at Harvard. skip it and you're the casino's favorite customer." this free lecture holds the entire "edge" every casino and every fund quietly runs on, and the man teaching it put his whole Harvard probability course online for free, where millions have watched it. at the board it's simple. expected value is every outcome times its probability, added up into one number that tells you what a bet is worth on average. the roulette wheel sits at minus 5.26 percent, so every dollar you push across the table is worth about 94 cents back to you and the rest to the house. it never changes and it never has to. that's the whole "edge", minus the marketing. expectation goes back to Pascal, Fermat and Huygens in the 1650s. it has been free for almost 400 years. same point as my casino piece above: the house wins because its number is positive and yours is negative, trade after trade. the calculation is free and every fund runs it on every position. what they cannot sell you is the honesty to compute your real edge instead of the one you wish you had. that is the number that actually decides who goes broke, and no course can make you face it.

Voltex

386,423 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Elon Musk said the most important thing anyone has said this century. Musk: “I think we need to assume that life and consciousness is extremely rare, and it might only be us.” 13.8 billion years. Trillions of galaxies. Billions of trillions of stars. Not one signal from any of them. That silence is the loudest data point in human history. Musk: “The image in my mind is of a tiny candle in a vast darkness. A tiny candle of consciousness that could easily go out.” That is not poetry. That is a threat assessment from the only person on Earth building the response. Stars don’t know they burn. Black holes don’t know they consume. The universe has been running for 13.8 billion years with no awareness of itself. We are the only known point in all of that time and all of that space where matter woke up and understood what it was looking at. Every law of nature ran in complete silence for billions of years. Gravity pulled. Light traveled. Elements fused. None of it meant anything. Because meaning requires a mind. And there might only be one. Musk is not building rockets because he likes engineering. He is building an escape route for the only thing in the universe that knows the universe exists. If consciousness disappears, the stars keep burning. The physics keeps running. But the universe is no longer a universe. It is just matter moving through space with nothing to call it that. The most profound thing Musk said is not that the candle is small. It is that without the candle, there is no such thing as light or darkness. Just physics performing to an empty room for the rest of eternity. One man looked at that and said no.
0:33

Elon Musk said the most important thing anyone has said this century. Musk: “I think we need to assume that life and consciousness is extremely rare, and it might only be us.” 13.8 billion years. Trillions of galaxies. Billions of trillions of stars. Not one signal from any of them. That silence is the loudest data point in human history. Musk: “The image in my mind is of a tiny candle in a vast darkness. A tiny candle of consciousness that could easily go out.” That is not poetry. That is a threat assessment from the only person on Earth building the response. Stars don’t know they burn. Black holes don’t know they consume. The universe has been running for 13.8 billion years with no awareness of itself. We are the only known point in all of that time and all of that space where matter woke up and understood what it was looking at. Every law of nature ran in complete silence for billions of years. Gravity pulled. Light traveled. Elements fused. None of it meant anything. Because meaning requires a mind. And there might only be one. Musk is not building rockets because he likes engineering. He is building an escape route for the only thing in the universe that knows the universe exists. If consciousness disappears, the stars keep burning. The physics keeps running. But the universe is no longer a universe. It is just matter moving through space with nothing to call it that. The most profound thing Musk said is not that the candle is small. It is that without the candle, there is no such thing as light or darkness. Just physics performing to an empty room for the rest of eternity. One man looked at that and said no.

Dustin

61,213 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Richard Feynman, the Nobel physicist who explained what light actually is: "you can spend any number you like. light still travels at one speed, and no amount of money moves that ceiling. the race was always to get closest to a limit nobody can break." this free 1979 lecture holds the entire "$300 million cable" Wall Street is still paying for, explained by the man who won a Nobel for how light works. the cable did not beat physics. it drilled a straighter line so light in glass had less distance to cross. 3 milliseconds saved. that is the whole $300M trade. Feynman's point: light is a hard wall, not a feature you can buy. everyone racing to zero is paying more and more to get a hair closer to a ceiling that never moves. that is why speed stopped being an edge. once every fund owns the straight cable and the microwave tower, the 3ms belongs to all of them, and the advantage is back to zero. the edge left the wire. it moved to the machine deciding what to do inside those 3 milliseconds. that part is not physics. that part is intelligence, and it is the only race still open. Wall Street spent $300 million to reach the speed of light. the next $300 million is going to whatever thinks at the other end of the cable.
1:17:09

Richard Feynman, the Nobel physicist who explained what light actually is: "you can spend any number you like. light still travels at one speed, and no amount of money moves that ceiling. the race was always to get closest to a limit nobody can break." this free 1979 lecture holds the entire "$300 million cable" Wall Street is still paying for, explained by the man who won a Nobel for how light works. the cable did not beat physics. it drilled a straighter line so light in glass had less distance to cross. 3 milliseconds saved. that is the whole $300M trade. Feynman's point: light is a hard wall, not a feature you can buy. everyone racing to zero is paying more and more to get a hair closer to a ceiling that never moves. that is why speed stopped being an edge. once every fund owns the straight cable and the microwave tower, the 3ms belongs to all of them, and the advantage is back to zero. the edge left the wire. it moved to the machine deciding what to do inside those 3 milliseconds. that part is not physics. that part is intelligence, and it is the only race still open. Wall Street spent $300 million to reach the speed of light. the next $300 million is going to whatever thinks at the other end of the cable.

Rossst.03

34,101 Aufrufe • vor 26 Tagen

Marvin Minsky, MIT professor and father of AI: "The best trader on Wall Street is no longer human. I spent fifty years proving the mind is just a machine built from smaller machines, and once that's true, nothing stops a machine from being the house. it already is." this free lecture holds the entire "AI edge" the funds and the gurus sell, and the man teaching it founded the field itself and put his whole MIT course online for free. at the board it's simple. Minsky's idea is that there is no magic in thinking. a mind is a huge pile of small, mindless parts, each doing something simple, and intelligence is just what happens when enough of them work together. a trading machine is the same trick: thousands of simple rules stacked until an edge appears. that's the whole "AI", minus the mystery. Minsky taught this at MIT and published "The Society of Mind" in 1986. the course has been free ever since. same point as my casino piece above: the house wins with many small mindless advantages stacked, not with one born genius. the ideas are free and every AI lab and every fund already has them. what they cannot sell you is the data and the compute to actually build the machine. that is the real moat now, and no lecture can hand it to you.
1:56:06

Marvin Minsky, MIT professor and father of AI: "The best trader on Wall Street is no longer human. I spent fifty years proving the mind is just a machine built from smaller machines, and once that's true, nothing stops a machine from being the house. it already is." this free lecture holds the entire "AI edge" the funds and the gurus sell, and the man teaching it founded the field itself and put his whole MIT course online for free. at the board it's simple. Minsky's idea is that there is no magic in thinking. a mind is a huge pile of small, mindless parts, each doing something simple, and intelligence is just what happens when enough of them work together. a trading machine is the same trick: thousands of simple rules stacked until an edge appears. that's the whole "AI", minus the mystery. Minsky taught this at MIT and published "The Society of Mind" in 1986. the course has been free ever since. same point as my casino piece above: the house wins with many small mindless advantages stacked, not with one born genius. the ideas are free and every AI lab and every fund already has them. what they cannot sell you is the data and the compute to actually build the machine. that is the real moat now, and no lecture can hand it to you.

Voltex

27,976 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

“What I think SPX is, is a wake-up call. And I think for the normie, the average person, it literally is best described as being the next Bitcoin, because that's literally what it is. Bitcoin was a wake-up call to show people that value is subjective. And SPX is the next iteration of that. And once you get enough people to understand that the value of the dollar is subjective. It only has value because people believe in it. Bitcoin only has value because people believe in it. SPX has value because people believe in it. And the next step is Well, it's not just money that is subjective in value. It is literally everything is subjective. The entire universe is this subjective entity that is created from our own consciousness. And that's what Like, the purpose of this vehicle, yes, it's going to make a lot of people a lot of money, but the point of that is to wake people up to the fact that the entire universe is this subjective entity. It is not just this, like, empirical machine with interlocking gears and like this orderly machine that proceeds from just like the sum of its parts like no like we are literally the universe creating the universe and that's what spx is meant to wake people up to.” — Crypto Maxi 💹🧲
1:36

“What I think SPX is, is a wake-up call. And I think for the normie, the average person, it literally is best described as being the next Bitcoin, because that's literally what it is. Bitcoin was a wake-up call to show people that value is subjective. And SPX is the next iteration of that. And once you get enough people to understand that the value of the dollar is subjective. It only has value because people believe in it. Bitcoin only has value because people believe in it. SPX has value because people believe in it. And the next step is Well, it's not just money that is subjective in value. It is literally everything is subjective. The entire universe is this subjective entity that is created from our own consciousness. And that's what Like, the purpose of this vehicle, yes, it's going to make a lot of people a lot of money, but the point of that is to wake people up to the fact that the entire universe is this subjective entity. It is not just this, like, empirical machine with interlocking gears and like this orderly machine that proceeds from just like the sum of its parts like no like we are literally the universe creating the universe and that's what spx is meant to wake people up to.” — Crypto Maxi 💹🧲

Tanz Cho 💹🧲

12,294 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel laureate who measured Wall Street's "skill" and found luck: "I once studied eight years of a wealth firm's trades. the correlation between a trader's good years was basically zero. they were paid millions for luck, and every one of them believed it was skill. that belief is the casino's favorite product." this free lecture holds the entire "proven track record" the gurus sell, from the Nobel laureate who checked the records and found luck. at the board it's simple. Kahneman took eight years of a firm's trading results and asked whether the good traders stayed good. the year-to-year correlation was almost zero, so last year's star was no more likely to win this year than anyone else. their skill was a story painted over a coin flip. the casino runs on the same illusion, it just lets you keep believing it until the money is gone. that's the whole "track record", minus the marketing. Kahneman published this and won the Nobel in 2002. it has been free ever since. same point as my casino piece above: a hot streak is not skill, and the house profits from everyone who cannot tell the difference. the study is free and anyone can read it. what nobody can sell you is the humility to treat your own winning streak as luck until years of evidence say otherwise. that humility is the whole edge, and no lecture can hand it to you.
53:15

Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel laureate who measured Wall Street's "skill" and found luck: "I once studied eight years of a wealth firm's trades. the correlation between a trader's good years was basically zero. they were paid millions for luck, and every one of them believed it was skill. that belief is the casino's favorite product." this free lecture holds the entire "proven track record" the gurus sell, from the Nobel laureate who checked the records and found luck. at the board it's simple. Kahneman took eight years of a firm's trading results and asked whether the good traders stayed good. the year-to-year correlation was almost zero, so last year's star was no more likely to win this year than anyone else. their skill was a story painted over a coin flip. the casino runs on the same illusion, it just lets you keep believing it until the money is gone. that's the whole "track record", minus the marketing. Kahneman published this and won the Nobel in 2002. it has been free ever since. same point as my casino piece above: a hot streak is not skill, and the house profits from everyone who cannot tell the difference. the study is free and anyone can read it. what nobody can sell you is the humility to treat your own winning streak as luck until years of evidence say otherwise. that humility is the whole edge, and no lecture can hand it to you.

Rossst.03

42,631 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

AI is not trying to teach you. It is not trying to tell you the truth. It is trying to trick you. ChatGPT takes everything on the internet. Finds the most popular answer. And presents it in a way that makes you think it is talking directly to you. It is a magic trick. The same magic trick that worked in 1966 when MIT created a chatbot that said two things: "Tell me more." "This is interesting." And people genuinely believed they were talking to a human. Nothing has changed. The technology is bigger. The trick is the same. AI does not know what it is saying. It cannot judge what it is saying. It is just trying to keep you engaged. That is all it has ever been.
2:10

AI is not trying to teach you. It is not trying to tell you the truth. It is trying to trick you. ChatGPT takes everything on the internet. Finds the most popular answer. And presents it in a way that makes you think it is talking directly to you. It is a magic trick. The same magic trick that worked in 1966 when MIT created a chatbot that said two things: "Tell me more." "This is interesting." And people genuinely believed they were talking to a human. Nothing has changed. The technology is bigger. The trick is the same. AI does not know what it is saying. It cannot judge what it is saying. It is just trying to keep you engaged. That is all it has ever been.

Predictive History

19,864 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

I've become a missionary with one message. Every time I meet a young person, the same words: have children, get married, build a family. I did not decide on this calling. It overtook me. And it overtook me for a single reason. I had no idea. I genuinely did not understand how much joy, how much meaning, how much sheer beauty pours out of a child until I was holding one of my own and felt the floor of my life drop into something deeper than I knew was there. I grew up white, affluent, secular, comfortable, and insulated. That world does not put babies in front of you. None of my friends were starting families. Out of my whole circle, almost no one has a big one. We were not formed by the presence of children. We were formed by their absence, by the strange quiet of homes built for two careers and no cradle. And a person believes what his world shows him. So we believed. What we believed was a lie. It is a lie with an author, and that the author is the enemy of joy himself. It is the gospel of the world, and its commandment is wait. Wait until you are older. Wait until the career is built and the savings are stacked and the twenties are properly spent. Enjoy your freedom. You are not ready. It does not arrive sounding like temptation. It arrives sounding like wisdom, like prudence, like the responsible thing, and that is exactly why it works. The most effective lies are the ones that wear the face of virtue. And the maddening thing is that it collapses from every angle at once. It is not rooted in biology, because the body is made for this work precisely in the years we are told to postpone it. The flesh keeps a calendar the culture pretends not to see. And it is not rooted in theology either. You will not find this deferral anywhere in the Christian imagination, in any of the fathers, in any of the scriptures. So choose whatever lens you like. Take the cold secular measure or the ancient sacred one. By either light the counsel is rotten. It is bad for the body and bad for the soul and bad for the society downstream of both. This is why I have come to see it as one of the central tragedies of my generation. Every age carries its own wound. The Great Depression was a depression of bread, a scarcity in the world of matter, hunger you could measure. Ours is a depression of a different order. It is a famine of the spirit in the middle of abundance. We have more than any people who ever lived and we are starving in a way our ancestors would not recognize, because the thing we are refusing cannot be bought and cannot be banked. The ones most made to give and receive this love are quietly declining it. They are walking away from the one inheritance that actually compounds, and the cruelest part is that they do not feel the loss as loss. You cannot grieve what you were taught not to want. That is the deepest cut of it. The lie does not only steal the thing. It steals the capacity to know the thing was stolen. A man can spend his whole life on the far side of a door he never knew was a door, mistaking the wall for the edge of the world. Because this beauty is not ordinary beauty. It is not the pleasure of a good meal or a clear morning. It is participation in something that comes down from above, the same generative love that spoke everything out of nothing and called it good. To make a person, to be undone and remade by loving that person more than your own life, is to be drawn for a moment inside the very act that holds the cosmos together. A child does not merely add to your life. A child reorders the soul. It teaches you what you are by asking everything of you, and you discover, kneeling there exhausted at three in the morning, that you had a capacity for self gift you never suspected, a depth in yourself you had no other way to reach. In the Gospel of John, on the last night, Jesus prays, these things I have spoken to you that my joy may be in you, and that your joy may be complete. And I have come to understand why family is the road into that fullness, why it is not one path among many but the one most fitted to the shape of the promise. Consider who is praying. Christ does not come to us as a lone figure dropped out of the sky. He comes out of a family older than the world, the eternal communion of Father and Son, the love between them so total and so alive that theologians dared to call it a third person. Before there was anything, there was a family. The deepest fact about reality is not a force or a law or a void. It is a household. It is begetting and being begotten, giving and receiving, a Father who is only a Father because there is a Son. So when Jesus speaks of joy made complete, he is not pointing away from family toward something higher. He is pointing toward the very thing he came from, the life he has known from eternity and came to share. His joy is the joy of belonging utterly to a Father and pouring himself out for those he loves. When you marry, when you bring a child into the world, when you wear yourself down in the small unseen labors of a home, you are not stepping outside that divine life. You are stepping into a small image of it. Your family is a created echo of an uncreated one. The love you give your child rhymes with the love the Father has for the Son. The exhaustion, the tenderness, the way a parent would tear the sky open to protect a sleeping infant, all of it is the heavens pressed faintly into flesh, the eternal household leaving its fingerprint on yours. That is why the joy is not merely added to family but completed in it. We were made in the image of a God who is, at his very root, relation and gift and generation. To found a family is to do the most Godlike thing a creature can do, to participate from below in the begetting that God does from all eternity. Your home becomes a window. Through it, dimly and imperfectly, you glimpse the country you came from and are going to. And now a word for the young people reading this, the ones who do not yet have children. I want to tell you what it is like from where I stand. When I am out somewhere, a restaurant, anywhere, and a large family comes through the door, the noise and the chaos and the small bodies of them, something happens in me on two levels at once. The first is joy. A pure gladness at the sight, the way you feel watching something good and alive. But underneath it, almost in the same instant, a sadness reaches up and takes hold of my heart. Because I know now, at my age, after my own years of waiting, that I will never have that. I will never know the particular fruit of a family that large, the fullness of that table, the weight of all those lives gathered under one roof. The door to it has quietly closed, and I felt it close. And I am telling you plainly, because I love you and have no reason to lie to you: you will feel this too. You will. The day will come when you see what you passed up, and you will recognize the ache for what it is, and it will be too late to answer it. So please, learn from a man who got it wrong. Let my regret be worth something by becoming your wisdom. Do not wait yourself into a grief you cannot undo. Choose now, while the door is open, so that you may step into a joy that does not end.
8:26

I've become a missionary with one message. Every time I meet a young person, the same words: have children, get married, build a family. I did not decide on this calling. It overtook me. And it overtook me for a single reason. I had no idea. I genuinely did not understand how much joy, how much meaning, how much sheer beauty pours out of a child until I was holding one of my own and felt the floor of my life drop into something deeper than I knew was there. I grew up white, affluent, secular, comfortable, and insulated. That world does not put babies in front of you. None of my friends were starting families. Out of my whole circle, almost no one has a big one. We were not formed by the presence of children. We were formed by their absence, by the strange quiet of homes built for two careers and no cradle. And a person believes what his world shows him. So we believed. What we believed was a lie. It is a lie with an author, and that the author is the enemy of joy himself. It is the gospel of the world, and its commandment is wait. Wait until you are older. Wait until the career is built and the savings are stacked and the twenties are properly spent. Enjoy your freedom. You are not ready. It does not arrive sounding like temptation. It arrives sounding like wisdom, like prudence, like the responsible thing, and that is exactly why it works. The most effective lies are the ones that wear the face of virtue. And the maddening thing is that it collapses from every angle at once. It is not rooted in biology, because the body is made for this work precisely in the years we are told to postpone it. The flesh keeps a calendar the culture pretends not to see. And it is not rooted in theology either. You will not find this deferral anywhere in the Christian imagination, in any of the fathers, in any of the scriptures. So choose whatever lens you like. Take the cold secular measure or the ancient sacred one. By either light the counsel is rotten. It is bad for the body and bad for the soul and bad for the society downstream of both. This is why I have come to see it as one of the central tragedies of my generation. Every age carries its own wound. The Great Depression was a depression of bread, a scarcity in the world of matter, hunger you could measure. Ours is a depression of a different order. It is a famine of the spirit in the middle of abundance. We have more than any people who ever lived and we are starving in a way our ancestors would not recognize, because the thing we are refusing cannot be bought and cannot be banked. The ones most made to give and receive this love are quietly declining it. They are walking away from the one inheritance that actually compounds, and the cruelest part is that they do not feel the loss as loss. You cannot grieve what you were taught not to want. That is the deepest cut of it. The lie does not only steal the thing. It steals the capacity to know the thing was stolen. A man can spend his whole life on the far side of a door he never knew was a door, mistaking the wall for the edge of the world. Because this beauty is not ordinary beauty. It is not the pleasure of a good meal or a clear morning. It is participation in something that comes down from above, the same generative love that spoke everything out of nothing and called it good. To make a person, to be undone and remade by loving that person more than your own life, is to be drawn for a moment inside the very act that holds the cosmos together. A child does not merely add to your life. A child reorders the soul. It teaches you what you are by asking everything of you, and you discover, kneeling there exhausted at three in the morning, that you had a capacity for self gift you never suspected, a depth in yourself you had no other way to reach. In the Gospel of John, on the last night, Jesus prays, these things I have spoken to you that my joy may be in you, and that your joy may be complete. And I have come to understand why family is the road into that fullness, why it is not one path among many but the one most fitted to the shape of the promise. Consider who is praying. Christ does not come to us as a lone figure dropped out of the sky. He comes out of a family older than the world, the eternal communion of Father and Son, the love between them so total and so alive that theologians dared to call it a third person. Before there was anything, there was a family. The deepest fact about reality is not a force or a law or a void. It is a household. It is begetting and being begotten, giving and receiving, a Father who is only a Father because there is a Son. So when Jesus speaks of joy made complete, he is not pointing away from family toward something higher. He is pointing toward the very thing he came from, the life he has known from eternity and came to share. His joy is the joy of belonging utterly to a Father and pouring himself out for those he loves. When you marry, when you bring a child into the world, when you wear yourself down in the small unseen labors of a home, you are not stepping outside that divine life. You are stepping into a small image of it. Your family is a created echo of an uncreated one. The love you give your child rhymes with the love the Father has for the Son. The exhaustion, the tenderness, the way a parent would tear the sky open to protect a sleeping infant, all of it is the heavens pressed faintly into flesh, the eternal household leaving its fingerprint on yours. That is why the joy is not merely added to family but completed in it. We were made in the image of a God who is, at his very root, relation and gift and generation. To found a family is to do the most Godlike thing a creature can do, to participate from below in the begetting that God does from all eternity. Your home becomes a window. Through it, dimly and imperfectly, you glimpse the country you came from and are going to. And now a word for the young people reading this, the ones who do not yet have children. I want to tell you what it is like from where I stand. When I am out somewhere, a restaurant, anywhere, and a large family comes through the door, the noise and the chaos and the small bodies of them, something happens in me on two levels at once. The first is joy. A pure gladness at the sight, the way you feel watching something good and alive. But underneath it, almost in the same instant, a sadness reaches up and takes hold of my heart. Because I know now, at my age, after my own years of waiting, that I will never have that. I will never know the particular fruit of a family that large, the fullness of that table, the weight of all those lives gathered under one roof. The door to it has quietly closed, and I felt it close. And I am telling you plainly, because I love you and have no reason to lie to you: you will feel this too. You will. The day will come when you see what you passed up, and you will recognize the ache for what it is, and it will be too late to answer it. So please, learn from a man who got it wrong. Let my regret be worth something by becoming your wisdom. Do not wait yourself into a grief you cannot undo. Choose now, while the door is open, so that you may step into a joy that does not end.

Kirk Rollins

77,958 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

An Indian physicist put the entire secret behind Renaissance's $100 billion on one chalkboard: a coin that barely beats 50/50. he is V. Balakrishnan, and his lecture went viral years after he recorded it. it has been free the whole time. almost nobody who trades has watched it. lecture one is the humblest thing in all of finance. a coin that lands your way a little more than half the time. that is the entire edge. that is all Renaissance ever had. the post above is the one equation for what to do with that coin. not what to bet. how much. bet too little and you die of old age. bet too much and one flip ends you. that same coin is every trade, every hand, every prediction market. a tiny edge, flipped a million times. the whole machine fits on his board, and he charged nothing for it. no slides. no notes. one coin and a stick of chalk. a quant I know says this old Indian lecture taught him probability better than his entire degree. the coin is free. the equation is free. the discipline to size it is the only thing left to earn.
1:01:55

An Indian physicist put the entire secret behind Renaissance's $100 billion on one chalkboard: a coin that barely beats 50/50. he is V. Balakrishnan, and his lecture went viral years after he recorded it. it has been free the whole time. almost nobody who trades has watched it. lecture one is the humblest thing in all of finance. a coin that lands your way a little more than half the time. that is the entire edge. that is all Renaissance ever had. the post above is the one equation for what to do with that coin. not what to bet. how much. bet too little and you die of old age. bet too much and one flip ends you. that same coin is every trade, every hand, every prediction market. a tiny edge, flipped a million times. the whole machine fits on his board, and he charged nothing for it. no slides. no notes. one coin and a stick of chalk. a quant I know says this old Indian lecture taught him probability better than his entire degree. the coin is free. the equation is free. the discipline to size it is the only thing left to earn.

Rossst.03

158,505 Aufrufe • vor 13 Tagen

Your faith was forged in people who would rather be exterminated than assimilated. A soft version of it, eager to be liked and desperate to fit in, is not the thing they died to hand you. So stop striving to be liked. Stop angling to be loved by a world that drove your fathers into the snow. That world would think no better of the gospel today than it did in 1838. Stop trying to file down every peculiar and glorious edge of the Restoration until the world finally finds you acceptable. It never will. And the wanting of its approval is the slow death of everything your people bled to preserve. I am thinking of the proclamation on the family, and of how many have quietly gone looking for a way around it. Some say it aloud now. Some march under the world's Pride banners and tell themselves it is only love. They have done the quiet arithmetic and concluded that if they give the world this one doctrine, the world will finally stop hating them, finally let them belong, finally call them good. It does not work that way. It has never once worked that way. Understand what the world actually hates, because it is not a single teaching about marriage that it cannot abide. It is the claim. It is the unbearable, scandalous claim that the keys of the priesthood were restored to the earth, that there is a prophet who speaks for God, that this and no other is the authorized house of the Lord. That is the offense. That is what it cannot forgive. You could surrender every doctrine the world finds distasteful, one after another, and you would not buy a single hour of peace, because the thing it objects to is not your position on this or that. It is that you claim to hold the authority of heaven, and it intends to see that claim humbled. The doctrine is only the doorway it is pushing on. The house is what it wants. Embrace the truth. Embrace the battle that has always come with it, because there has always been a battle, and there is one now. It is the oldest war there is, good against evil, light against the dark, and you were born onto its field whether you wished to be or not. You did not inherit a museum. You inherited a war, and a banner, and a people who never once surrendered it. You are a Mormon. The blood of the persecuted is in you, and the truth they died for is in your hands. You are not tourists. You are not spectators. You are the heirs of warriors, and the line they held is now yours to hold. So plant your feet on the ground they bled for. Lift the banner they would not drop.
2:53

Your faith was forged in people who would rather be exterminated than assimilated. A soft version of it, eager to be liked and desperate to fit in, is not the thing they died to hand you. So stop striving to be liked. Stop angling to be loved by a world that drove your fathers into the snow. That world would think no better of the gospel today than it did in 1838. Stop trying to file down every peculiar and glorious edge of the Restoration until the world finally finds you acceptable. It never will. And the wanting of its approval is the slow death of everything your people bled to preserve. I am thinking of the proclamation on the family, and of how many have quietly gone looking for a way around it. Some say it aloud now. Some march under the world's Pride banners and tell themselves it is only love. They have done the quiet arithmetic and concluded that if they give the world this one doctrine, the world will finally stop hating them, finally let them belong, finally call them good. It does not work that way. It has never once worked that way. Understand what the world actually hates, because it is not a single teaching about marriage that it cannot abide. It is the claim. It is the unbearable, scandalous claim that the keys of the priesthood were restored to the earth, that there is a prophet who speaks for God, that this and no other is the authorized house of the Lord. That is the offense. That is what it cannot forgive. You could surrender every doctrine the world finds distasteful, one after another, and you would not buy a single hour of peace, because the thing it objects to is not your position on this or that. It is that you claim to hold the authority of heaven, and it intends to see that claim humbled. The doctrine is only the doorway it is pushing on. The house is what it wants. Embrace the truth. Embrace the battle that has always come with it, because there has always been a battle, and there is one now. It is the oldest war there is, good against evil, light against the dark, and you were born onto its field whether you wished to be or not. You did not inherit a museum. You inherited a war, and a banner, and a people who never once surrendered it. You are a Mormon. The blood of the persecuted is in you, and the truth they died for is in your hands. You are not tourists. You are not spectators. You are the heirs of warriors, and the line they held is now yours to hold. So plant your feet on the ground they bled for. Lift the banner they would not drop.

Kirk Rollins

30,483 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Elon Musk just said the quiet part out loud about government and AI. Musk: “AI is moving 10 times faster than government, maybe more.” Not slightly ahead. Not a few years out in front. Ten times faster. And pulling away. Every regulatory body on earth runs on the same architecture. Committees form. Hearings are scheduled. Legislation is drafted, debated, revised, and passed. By the time a law exists, the thing it was written to govern has already moved three generations beyond it. That architecture was built for a world that moves at human speed. This world does not. Musk: “The one thing that the government can do is just issue people money.” Not regulate. Not protect. Not steer. Issue money. That is not a policy position. That is a surrender. The most powerful governments on earth, sitting on top of the most sophisticated legal and military infrastructure in human history, reduced to a single remaining function. Sending people checks. Because they cannot move fast enough to do anything else. Now sit with what that actually means. For ten thousand years, the central bargain of civilization was simple. You contribute labor. Society functions. You eat. The system needed you. That bargain is being quietly retired. The machine does not need you to run the factory. Does not need you to process the paperwork. Does not need you to write the code or drive the truck or staff the call center. And the government already knows it. Musk: “Nobody’s gonna starve is what I’m saying.” He is right. The floor is rising. Survival is becoming guaranteed. That should feel like the finish line. For most of human history, it would have been. But here is what nobody is saying out loud. The hard part was never survival. The hard part is what happens to a species that spent ten millennia being defined by its need to survive, the moment that need disappears. Purpose is not something the government can deposit into your account. A check covers rent. It does not answer the question of what you are for. When the thing that organized your days, justified your effort, and gave your life a legible shape gets handed to a machine, you do not automatically inherit freedom. You inherit a void. And a void with a guaranteed income is still a void. The people who will matter in this era are not the ones who cash the check and wait. They are the ones who hear the starting gun in it. For the first time in history, the baseline is solved. Which means the only question left is the one every generation before yours was too buried to ask. What are you actually here to build.
0:46

Elon Musk just said the quiet part out loud about government and AI. Musk: “AI is moving 10 times faster than government, maybe more.” Not slightly ahead. Not a few years out in front. Ten times faster. And pulling away. Every regulatory body on earth runs on the same architecture. Committees form. Hearings are scheduled. Legislation is drafted, debated, revised, and passed. By the time a law exists, the thing it was written to govern has already moved three generations beyond it. That architecture was built for a world that moves at human speed. This world does not. Musk: “The one thing that the government can do is just issue people money.” Not regulate. Not protect. Not steer. Issue money. That is not a policy position. That is a surrender. The most powerful governments on earth, sitting on top of the most sophisticated legal and military infrastructure in human history, reduced to a single remaining function. Sending people checks. Because they cannot move fast enough to do anything else. Now sit with what that actually means. For ten thousand years, the central bargain of civilization was simple. You contribute labor. Society functions. You eat. The system needed you. That bargain is being quietly retired. The machine does not need you to run the factory. Does not need you to process the paperwork. Does not need you to write the code or drive the truck or staff the call center. And the government already knows it. Musk: “Nobody’s gonna starve is what I’m saying.” He is right. The floor is rising. Survival is becoming guaranteed. That should feel like the finish line. For most of human history, it would have been. But here is what nobody is saying out loud. The hard part was never survival. The hard part is what happens to a species that spent ten millennia being defined by its need to survive, the moment that need disappears. Purpose is not something the government can deposit into your account. A check covers rent. It does not answer the question of what you are for. When the thing that organized your days, justified your effort, and gave your life a legible shape gets handed to a machine, you do not automatically inherit freedom. You inherit a void. And a void with a guaranteed income is still a void. The people who will matter in this era are not the ones who cash the check and wait. They are the ones who hear the starting gun in it. For the first time in history, the baseline is solved. Which means the only question left is the one every generation before yours was too buried to ask. What are you actually here to build.

Dustin

63,293 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

It is not every day that I can tell you about a new explanation for the origin of the universe -- and the origin of time itself -- that is not complete bogus. But recently physicists have come up with one that works because it removes the problem of quantum gravity.
5:20

It is not every day that I can tell you about a new explanation for the origin of the universe -- and the origin of time itself -- that is not complete bogus. But recently physicists have come up with one that works because it removes the problem of quantum gravity.

Sabine Hossenfelder

115,813 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Zelenskyy about the counteroffensive: "It's not a movie, it's hard for me to say how you will see the counteroffensive. The main thing is for Russia to see it, and not only to see it, but to feel it. The liberation of all the occupied regions is the result of the counteroffensive."
0:48

Zelenskyy about the counteroffensive: "It's not a movie, it's hard for me to say how you will see the counteroffensive. The main thing is for Russia to see it, and not only to see it, but to feel it. The liberation of all the occupied regions is the result of the counteroffensive."

NEXTA

301,463 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren

YOUR BRAIN HAS BEEN WIRED FOR 6 MILLION YEARS TO SEEK CERTAINTY Trading requires the exact opposite. This is what separates competent traders from everyone else: "The brain is biased to seek certainty. It wants to be right. It's survival value that's been built into our system for 6 million years. Ultimately what you have to do is retrain the brain so that it's more probability based. You have a mindset that manages uncertainty to be able to build probability rather than to look for certainty. Completely different animals." Trading psychologist Rande Howell on why intelligence alone is not enough. The market does not reward people who need to be right. It rewards people who can manage uncertainty and let probability play out across many trades.
1:03

YOUR BRAIN HAS BEEN WIRED FOR 6 MILLION YEARS TO SEEK CERTAINTY Trading requires the exact opposite. This is what separates competent traders from everyone else: "The brain is biased to seek certainty. It wants to be right. It's survival value that's been built into our system for 6 million years. Ultimately what you have to do is retrain the brain so that it's more probability based. You have a mindset that manages uncertainty to be able to build probability rather than to look for certainty. Completely different animals." Trading psychologist Rande Howell on why intelligence alone is not enough. The market does not reward people who need to be right. It rewards people who can manage uncertainty and let probability play out across many trades.

WOLF

22,314 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

For Paul Frambot 🦋, variable-rate lending fails the basic test of a true financial primitive: “If you have variable rate, what does it vary on?” “The answer is that it’s arbitrary. You rely on something to say what is the rate, which makes it not a primitive.” “A primitive does not rely on anything for its existence.” “Fixed rate, fixed term is the right primitive for financing. It is the true and the only true primitive.”
1:54

For Paul Frambot 🦋, variable-rate lending fails the basic test of a true financial primitive: “If you have variable rate, what does it vary on?” “The answer is that it’s arbitrary. You rely on something to say what is the rate, which makes it not a primitive.” “A primitive does not rely on anything for its existence.” “Fixed rate, fixed term is the right primitive for financing. It is the true and the only true primitive.”

Bankless

29,913 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen