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.Robert A. Pape on why Iran is refusing to negotiate.

TRIGGERnometry

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65,195 次观看 • 4 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape says “we’re about to enter the period of maximum leverage for Iran.” He told CNN that as global oil inventories hit a projected “cliff” in late July and early August, Tehran’s bargaining power will surge. “Why would it cut a deal when its leverage is about to grow?” he asked. Robert A. Pape

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🇨🇳 🇮🇷 If China wants to broker Iran's nuclear deal, it needs boots on the ground. Political scientist Robert Pape says the path to a deal is actually simple on paper. China offers Iran economic integration. Iran freezes its nuclear program. Trump claims the political win. The part nobody's solved is credibility. Iran has been promised things before. The promises didn't hold. Pape says the fix is what he calls the credibility of commitment problem. China would have to put 100,000 personnel inside Iran. Physical presence in the exact places the U.S. and Israel would target in any future strike. That arrangement would make Iran the fourth center of world power. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The behavior on the ground tells a different story than the words coming out of Washington. Political Scientist Robert Pape breaks it down simply: forces are moving toward Iran, not away. "The idea that you're moving all this force continuously toward Iran, and then you're just going to somehow surrender to Iran, this just doesn't seem plausible here." Every day without a credible off ramp is another day the trap closes tighter. Robert A. Pape

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EP-27 with Top U.S. Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape (Robert A. Pape) premieres today at 5 PM IST | ANI Broadcast “President Trump could effectively lose his presidency in a war of attrition.” “Iran is becoming the oil hegemon, on the cusp of nuclear weapons.” “Iran is now among the 5th most powerful countries on the planet.” “Pakistan gave Iran somewhere between 600 and 900 centrifuges from its nuclear program” “There is a 70% chance that the U.S. would invade Iran.” Tap 'notify me' to get episode alerts: #ANIBroadcast #IshaanPrakash #RobertPape #DonaldTrump #USA #Iran #War #Israel #Netanyahu #Pakistan #SaudiArabia #Gulf

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Maybe there is a reason why Iran is refusing to negotiate a peace deal with Jarad Kushner. How does someone we never voted for and was never confirmed by congress for any position. How does someone like that have some much power inside the US government?

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The army should not be used as a battering ram from a government that is refusing to meet workers' representatives, refusing to negotiate, and refusing to invest in our NHS. Solidarity with ambulance staff on strike up and down the country today.

The army should not be used as a battering ram from a government that is refusing to meet workers' representatives, refusing to negotiate, and refusing to invest in our NHS. Solidarity with ambulance staff on strike up and down the country today.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is currently trapped in a “spiral phase of the escalation trap” regarding Iran, where the illusion of easy diplomatic or military leverage has finally vanished. Robert Pape says the U.S. has no power to compel Iran to stop its nuclear program through air or naval strikes alone; the only remaining military path would require ground forces to physically "haul out" enriched material. A move the U.S. is unlikely to make. “Iran is on its way to becoming the 4th center of world power with or without war by the United States.” Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is currently trapped in a “spiral phase of the escalation trap” regarding Iran, where the illusion of easy diplomatic or military leverage has finally vanished. Robert Pape says the U.S. has no power to compel Iran to stop its nuclear program through air or naval strikes alone; the only remaining military path would require ground forces to physically "haul out" enriched material. A move the U.S. is unlikely to make. “Iran is on its way to becoming the 4th center of world power with or without war by the United States.” Robert A. Pape

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