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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Robert Pape says people are misreading the canceled U.S. strikes on Iran. The political scientist argues the real story isn't whether the operation was a bluff, but what the cancellation reveals about Washington's decision-making. In his view, this is the White House caught between military action and... show more

Mario Nawfal

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The canceled U.S. strikes on Iran were far more than just political rhetoric, according to Robert Pape. The political scientist says Washington's actions went well beyond public threats. State Department warnings were issued, allies were alerted, and military preparations were already underway before President Trump called the operation off. Pape argues the key unanswered question isn't whether the strikes were a bluff, but how far the military planning had actually progressed before the order was reversed. "This wasn't just a matter of President Trump giving some verbal bluffing." Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The canceled U.S. strikes on Iran were far more than just political rhetoric, according to Robert Pape. The political scientist says Washington's actions went well beyond public threats. State Department warnings were issued, allies were alerted, and military preparations were already underway before President Trump called the operation off. Pape argues the key unanswered question isn't whether the strikes were a bluff, but how far the military planning had actually progressed before the order was reversed. "This wasn't just a matter of President Trump giving some verbal bluffing." Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

144,850 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Make no mistake, Iran is WINNING this war Political scientist Prof. Robert Pape: "They're not just inflicting costs, but they're also persuading the world that the probability of success of Trump's strategies is virtually zilch. That is what is demoralizing Americans. That's what demoralizes the U.S military, and that is why Iran has been gaining the upper hand." Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Make no mistake, Iran is WINNING this war Political scientist Prof. Robert Pape: "They're not just inflicting costs, but they're also persuading the world that the probability of success of Trump's strategies is virtually zilch. That is what is demoralizing Americans. That's what demoralizes the U.S military, and that is why Iran has been gaining the upper hand." Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

71,678 görüntüleme • 21 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is currently trapped in a “spiral phase of the escalation trap” regarding Iran, where the illusion of easy diplomatic or military leverage has finally vanished. Robert Pape says the U.S. has no power to compel Iran to stop its nuclear program through air or naval strikes alone; the only remaining military path would require ground forces to physically "haul out" enriched material. A move the U.S. is unlikely to make. “Iran is on its way to becoming the 4th center of world power with or without war by the United States.” Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is currently trapped in a “spiral phase of the escalation trap” regarding Iran, where the illusion of easy diplomatic or military leverage has finally vanished. Robert Pape says the U.S. has no power to compel Iran to stop its nuclear program through air or naval strikes alone; the only remaining military path would require ground forces to physically "haul out" enriched material. A move the U.S. is unlikely to make. “Iran is on its way to becoming the 4th center of world power with or without war by the United States.” Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

71,275 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷History doesn't lie, and Political Scientist Robert Pape has 30 years of data to prove it. "American sanctions, oil sanctions is the American way of war. It is not the peace path." Trump is caught in an escalation trap, and every exit costs him everything. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷History doesn't lie, and Political Scientist Robert Pape has 30 years of data to prove it. "American sanctions, oil sanctions is the American way of war. It is not the peace path." Trump is caught in an escalation trap, and every exit costs him everything. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

29,680 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Three tankers hit near the Strait of Hormuz in a matter of day, and somehow it's barely making the news. Professor Robert Pape says this isn't a one-week story but the opening act of a "gathering storm," with Iran allegedly behind a wave of strikes the West keeps shrugging off. "They're simply not giving it the attention it deserves and that's going to set up for some pretty big surprises going forward." Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Three tankers hit near the Strait of Hormuz in a matter of day, and somehow it's barely making the news. Professor Robert Pape says this isn't a one-week story but the opening act of a "gathering storm," with Iran allegedly behind a wave of strikes the West keeps shrugging off. "They're simply not giving it the attention it deserves and that's going to set up for some pretty big surprises going forward." Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

59,751 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇮🇷 One fork in the road, and neither path is clean. Political Scientist Robert Pape has modeled this escalation for 21 years, and he says the Trump administration is running out of options fast. "Unless the Trump administration allows Iran to become the fourth center of world power, your government, the UAE, will be toppled, likely within 4 or 5 years." The bombs didn't work. The naval blockade didn't work. What comes next is the question nobody wants to answer. Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷 One fork in the road, and neither path is clean. Political Scientist Robert Pape has modeled this escalation for 21 years, and he says the Trump administration is running out of options fast. "Unless the Trump administration allows Iran to become the fourth center of world power, your government, the UAE, will be toppled, likely within 4 or 5 years." The bombs didn't work. The naval blockade didn't work. What comes next is the question nobody wants to answer. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

64,131 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The behavior on the ground tells a different story than the words coming out of Washington. Political Scientist Robert Pape breaks it down simply: forces are moving toward Iran, not away. "The idea that you're moving all this force continuously toward Iran, and then you're just going to somehow surrender to Iran, this just doesn't seem plausible here." Every day without a credible off ramp is another day the trap closes tighter. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The behavior on the ground tells a different story than the words coming out of Washington. Political Scientist Robert Pape breaks it down simply: forces are moving toward Iran, not away. "The idea that you're moving all this force continuously toward Iran, and then you're just going to somehow surrender to Iran, this just doesn't seem plausible here." Every day without a credible off ramp is another day the trap closes tighter. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

108,692 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Escalation might be the only card left on the table as the U.S. runs out of options in the Middle East. Professor Robert Pape argues that chaos in Lebanon is handing the Trump administration consecutive political losses that make them look incredibly weak. He suggested the pressure to avoid looking like an embarrassment on the world stage could trigger another massive military escalation in the coming months. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Escalation might be the only card left on the table as the U.S. runs out of options in the Middle East. Professor Robert Pape argues that chaos in Lebanon is handing the Trump administration consecutive political losses that make them look incredibly weak. He suggested the pressure to avoid looking like an embarrassment on the world stage could trigger another massive military escalation in the coming months. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

55,961 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 WAR BY YEAR’S END: IRAN’S GROWING GRIP By the end of the year, Robert Pape predicts that the strategic playing field will likely tilt even further in Tehran’s favor. History shows the probability of a "mechanistic" regime change is only about 5% which is a gamble the U.S. can't afford to rely on. With no good military option to change the current trajectory, Iran is already looking to China and Russia to cement their influence. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 WAR BY YEAR’S END: IRAN’S GROWING GRIP By the end of the year, Robert Pape predicts that the strategic playing field will likely tilt even further in Tehran’s favor. History shows the probability of a "mechanistic" regime change is only about 5% which is a gamble the U.S. can't afford to rely on. With no good military option to change the current trajectory, Iran is already looking to China and Russia to cement their influence. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

103,074 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

🇮🇷🇰🇼 The conflict is entering what political scientist Robert Pape calls a "spiral" of escalation. Pape says Iran's strikes on Kuwait's desalination plants prove that critical infrastructure is now becoming a deliberate target. And attacks show a high degree of precision and planning. He warns that if Iran disables just a few of Kuwait's largest plants, millions could face drinking water shortages within a week. Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷🇰🇼 The conflict is entering what political scientist Robert Pape calls a "spiral" of escalation. Pape says Iran's strikes on Kuwait's desalination plants prove that critical infrastructure is now becoming a deliberate target. And attacks show a high degree of precision and planning. He warns that if Iran disables just a few of Kuwait's largest plants, millions could face drinking water shortages within a week. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

58,715 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's growing power is unstoppable – US professor The US chose to follow a “horrible strategy” against Iran, says US political scientist Robert Pape.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's growing power is unstoppable – US professor The US chose to follow a “horrible strategy” against Iran, says US political scientist Robert Pape.

Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸

142,957 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

University of Chicago professor Robert Pape says he’s not hopeful about an imminent resolution to the conflict with Iran, arguing that “we’re in the middle part… of the escalation trap.” He says the United States will remain caught in that “trap” through the November midterms as Iran seeks to maximize its leverage. Robert A. Pape

University of Chicago professor Robert Pape says he’s not hopeful about an imminent resolution to the conflict with Iran, arguing that “we’re in the middle part… of the escalation trap.” He says the United States will remain caught in that “trap” through the November midterms as Iran seeks to maximize its leverage. Robert A. Pape

Drop Site

40,154 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE ESCALATION LADDER: BEYOND RED LINES The regional war we are witnessing is far more than a "Venezuela-style" operation. Professor Robert Pape explains that Iran has leaped over critical steps on the escalation ladder. Daily strikes in the Gulf and tight control over the Strait of Hormuz prove the strategy is backfiring. Two weeks into the bombing, and Iran is actually stronger and more in control of oil than when it started. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE ESCALATION LADDER: BEYOND RED LINES The regional war we are witnessing is far more than a "Venezuela-style" operation. Professor Robert Pape explains that Iran has leaped over critical steps on the escalation ladder. Daily strikes in the Gulf and tight control over the Strait of Hormuz prove the strategy is backfiring. Two weeks into the bombing, and Iran is actually stronger and more in control of oil than when it started. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

56,951 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

🇨🇳 🇮🇷 If China wants to broker Iran's nuclear deal, it needs boots on the ground. Political scientist Robert Pape says the path to a deal is actually simple on paper. China offers Iran economic integration. Iran freezes its nuclear program. Trump claims the political win. The part nobody's solved is credibility. Iran has been promised things before. The promises didn't hold. Pape says the fix is what he calls the credibility of commitment problem. China would have to put 100,000 personnel inside Iran. Physical presence in the exact places the U.S. and Israel would target in any future strike. That arrangement would make Iran the fourth center of world power. Robert A. Pape

🇨🇳 🇮🇷 If China wants to broker Iran's nuclear deal, it needs boots on the ground. Political scientist Robert Pape says the path to a deal is actually simple on paper. China offers Iran economic integration. Iran freezes its nuclear program. Trump claims the political win. The part nobody's solved is credibility. Iran has been promised things before. The promises didn't hold. Pape says the fix is what he calls the credibility of commitment problem. China would have to put 100,000 personnel inside Iran. Physical presence in the exact places the U.S. and Israel would target in any future strike. That arrangement would make Iran the fourth center of world power. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

96,784 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🗣️ "President Trump is up against the weight of history." Professor of political science Robert Pape says the U.S. trying to control the escalating conflict in Iran from the air is a tactic which has "never worked in 100 years." #iran #middleeast

🗣️ "President Trump is up against the weight of history." Professor of political science Robert Pape says the U.S. trying to control the escalating conflict in Iran from the air is a tactic which has "never worked in 100 years." #iran #middleeast

Sky News

165,077 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 Israel is rapidly approaching a dangerous "escalation trap" where it may soon decide to launch major military operations entirely without American approval. Professor Robert Pape pointed out that nearly half of the Israeli public is now allegedly onboard with the nation going solo in its foreign policy initiatives. The professor warns that domestic political pressures are making rogue Israeli strikes highly likely. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 Israel is rapidly approaching a dangerous "escalation trap" where it may soon decide to launch major military operations entirely without American approval. Professor Robert Pape pointed out that nearly half of the Israeli public is now allegedly onboard with the nation going solo in its foreign policy initiatives. The professor warns that domestic political pressures are making rogue Israeli strikes highly likely. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

60,525 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 You can't shoot down a cheap drone with an expensive missile forever. Political Scientist Robert Pape says interceptor stocks are thinning out, drained by having to answer both ballistic missiles and low-cost drones with the same high-end munitions. The workaround is leaning harder on long-range bombers and other assets. Pape is careful about what that means: it constrains the campaign, it doesn't decide it. So does this shape the tempo from here, or just the target list? Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 You can't shoot down a cheap drone with an expensive missile forever. Political Scientist Robert Pape says interceptor stocks are thinning out, drained by having to answer both ballistic missiles and low-cost drones with the same high-end munitions. The workaround is leaning harder on long-range bombers and other assets. Pape is careful about what that means: it constrains the campaign, it doesn't decide it. So does this shape the tempo from here, or just the target list? Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

68,213 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The current U.S.-Iran negotiations represent a massive strategic shift. Professor Robert Pape argued that despite Western media spin, Iran is actually in the driver's seat and setting the terms while the Trump administration scrambles to adjust. He suggested the escalation trap the world is facing signals a permanent new era of global energy and economic instability, rather than a temporary hurdle. "We are in an era of instability, not a moment of instability." Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The current U.S.-Iran negotiations represent a massive strategic shift. Professor Robert Pape argued that despite Western media spin, Iran is actually in the driver's seat and setting the terms while the Trump administration scrambles to adjust. He suggested the escalation trap the world is facing signals a permanent new era of global energy and economic instability, rather than a temporary hurdle. "We are in an era of instability, not a moment of instability." Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

58,085 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Were the last 13 days of strikes tactical prep for a possible MOVE ONSHORE near Iran's coast? Prof. Robert Pape says the bombing hit tactical/defensive targets, not the underground ballistic missile sites Iran actually fires from. His prediction: expect a renewed suppression push this week, plus the U.S. pulling every spare Patriot interceptor it can find. Asia, maybe Ukraine too. This campaign wasn't fully successful in March or April either. Why would round 3 be different? Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Were the last 13 days of strikes tactical prep for a possible MOVE ONSHORE near Iran's coast? Prof. Robert Pape says the bombing hit tactical/defensive targets, not the underground ballistic missile sites Iran actually fires from. His prediction: expect a renewed suppression push this week, plus the U.S. pulling every spare Patriot interceptor it can find. Asia, maybe Ukraine too. This campaign wasn't fully successful in March or April either. Why would round 3 be different? Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

69,771 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Robert Pape: Iran is playing Russian roulette with U.S. aircraft carriers Iran may not be trying to actually hit an American carrier, but something more dangerous: making sure nobody can guarantee that it won’t. University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape argues Iran’s recent missile launches are a textbook example of what strategist Thomas Schelling called “the threat that leaves something to chance.” Tehran is the weaker conventional power, but it can compensate by deliberately introducing risk. Fire an advanced missile close enough to a carrier that an interception fails, the ship maneuvers incorrectly, or the weapon deviates slightly, and suddenly hundreds of American sailors could be dead. Pape calls it “Russian roulette with the carrier.” And that puts Washington in an ugly position. Keep the carriers there and eventually the roulette wheel may land on the live round. Pull them back and Iran demonstrates that it can push American military power out of the Gulf. Pape believes that is the larger objective: not simply imposing economic costs on Washington, but demonstrating that American military power can be denied. “The goal is to physically evict American power out of the Persian Gulf.” Iran doesn't need to win a conventional naval war. Making staying more dangerous than leaving does the trick. Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Robert Pape: Iran is playing Russian roulette with U.S. aircraft carriers Iran may not be trying to actually hit an American carrier, but something more dangerous: making sure nobody can guarantee that it won’t. University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape argues Iran’s recent missile launches are a textbook example of what strategist Thomas Schelling called “the threat that leaves something to chance.” Tehran is the weaker conventional power, but it can compensate by deliberately introducing risk. Fire an advanced missile close enough to a carrier that an interception fails, the ship maneuvers incorrectly, or the weapon deviates slightly, and suddenly hundreds of American sailors could be dead. Pape calls it “Russian roulette with the carrier.” And that puts Washington in an ugly position. Keep the carriers there and eventually the roulette wheel may land on the live round. Pull them back and Iran demonstrates that it can push American military power out of the Gulf. Pape believes that is the larger objective: not simply imposing economic costs on Washington, but demonstrating that American military power can be denied. “The goal is to physically evict American power out of the Persian Gulf.” Iran doesn't need to win a conventional naval war. Making staying more dangerous than leaving does the trick. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

293,824 görüntüleme • 21 gün önce