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🚨🇷🇺💥 RUSSIAN BILLIONAIRE WARNS: A WILDBERRIES COLLAPSE COULD TRIGGER A BANKING CRISIS. Oligarch Oleg Deripaska has warned that the potential bankruptcy of Wildberries, Russia's largest online retailer, could have devastating consequences for the country's financial system. According to Deripaska, the company is burdened by massive multi-billion-dollar liabilities, creating the...

72,670 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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"We need to finish off Wildberries and Ozon - that’s a must. It would trigger the collapse of the banking system." - Fire Point co-owner and chief designer Denys Shtilierman in an interview with Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon Strikes on Wildberries: the consequences for Russia's economy Over the course of the week, between July 18 and 24, Ukrainian drones struck at least nine major Wildberries warehouses, from Moscow region to St. Petersburg and Simferopol. Wildberries is Russia's largest online marketplace, handling about half of the country's online purchases. According to preliminary estimates, around 10% of its warehouse capacity has been damaged. The economic consequences of these strikes do deserve attention. Estimates of the damage vary. Rebuilding the warehouses could cost 20-35 billion rubles (~$260-450 million). Total losses, including destroyed goods, exceed 100 billion rubles (~$1.3 billion), while sellers' losses could reach 150 billion rubles (~$1.9 billion) or more. For Russia's economy, this is not a critical scale. However, the losses are concentrated not at the level of the state or big business, but among hundreds of thousands of small entrepreneurs. Eleven days before the first strike, Wildberries changed its terms for sellers: goods destroyed in attacks were classified as force majeure, meaning the company bears no liability. The platform has between 500,000 and 800,000 sellers. A significant portion of them finance their purchases with loans. If the goods are destroyed, there is no compensation, but the loan obligations remain. Thus, much of the financial burden is shifted from the marketplace to small businesses. This means bankruptcies for individual sellers and growing non-performing loans for banks. Wildberries itself is also vulnerable. Last year, the group's main company raised about 1.5 trillion rubles (~$19.2 billion) in short-term financing, and by the end of the year, its debt to banks stood at about 800 billion rubles (~$10.3 billion). A significant share of these loans is unsecured. This model depends on continuous refinancing. Following a series of cyberattacks, the company’s credit risk is rising: banks may demand higher interest rates, reduce credit limits, or tighten financing terms. It’s not just borrowing that’s becoming more expensive. Costs for warehouse insurance, security, and logistics are also rising. Sellers are forced to distribute goods across a larger number of warehouses, which also increases production costs. What's next? In the coming months, the most likely consequences are bankruptcies among some small sellers, an increase in non-performing loans, and higher financing costs for Wildberries. One of the first tests will be the repayment of the company’s bonds in August. In the longer term, e-commerce logistics in Russia will become more expensive due to higher costs for insurance, security, and the fragmentation of warehouse infrastructure. Some small sellers will leave the market, reducing competition and putting additional pressure on prices. What these strikes are unlikely to cause is the collapse of Wildberries, a stock market crash, or a large-scale economic crisis. Instead, they will gradually increase business costs, weaken small businesses, and make the war increasingly tangible for Russia's rear.

Anton Gerashchenko

34,053 просмотров • 1 месяц назад