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Sam Altman: “AGI feels pretty close at this point. Watching how much the technology we already have is accelerating us internally, I’d say AGI feels pretty close. And given what I now expect to be a faster takeoff, I think superintelligence is not that far off.”

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58,521 views • 5 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Holy moly, what is happening inside those frontier labs?! - AGI very close - Superintelligence also not far off - watching "how fast the models accelerate internally" ASI is very close - a *even faster* take-off not very fast off

Holy moly, what is happening inside those frontier labs?! - AGI very close - Superintelligence also not far off - watching "how fast the models accelerate internally" ASI is very close - a even faster take-off not very fast off

Chubby♨️

288,116 views • 5 months ago

I don't know what Sam Altman saw internally at OpenAI, but it seems that, according to their definition, AGI is here, and superintelligence is incredibly close. AI models that independently conduct scientific research and find novel solutions are already here, and their internal model appears to surpass everything seen before.

I don't know what Sam Altman saw internally at OpenAI, but it seems that, according to their definition, AGI is here, and superintelligence is incredibly close. AI models that independently conduct scientific research and find novel solutions are already here, and their internal model appears to surpass everything seen before.

Chubby♨️

70,939 views • 4 months ago

By now, it seems that Yann Lecun is the only one who does not believe in the future of LLMs to the extent that they will reach AGI. "At what point do we need a new architecture How do you think about what breakthroughs are needed?" Sam: "I think far enough that we can make something that will figure out the next breakthrough with the current technology."

By now, it seems that Yann Lecun is the only one who does not believe in the future of LLMs to the extent that they will reach AGI. "At what point do we need a new architecture How do you think about what breakthroughs are needed?" Sam: "I think far enough that we can make something that will figure out the next breakthrough with the current technology."

Chubby♨️

103,967 views • 10 months ago

Sam Altman: “The first one is that we are close to creating a "genie" that can grant any wish” Sam Altmanwas recently asked what the single most important thing to explain to the world about artificial intelligence is. The first one is that we are close to creating a "genie" that can grant any wish (AGI) The second point is to make sure that these wishes are broadly beneficial to humanity. The third point is that the range of wishes is large and diverse. And finally, the fourth point is when we start making wishes, and the computer grants them and we didn’t expect that it would be able to do that.

Sam Altman: “The first one is that we are close to creating a "genie" that can grant any wish” Sam Altmanwas recently asked what the single most important thing to explain to the world about artificial intelligence is. The first one is that we are close to creating a "genie" that can grant any wish (AGI) The second point is to make sure that these wishes are broadly beneficial to humanity. The third point is that the range of wishes is large and diverse. And finally, the fourth point is when we start making wishes, and the computer grants them and we didn’t expect that it would be able to do that.

Chris

376,522 views • 21 days ago

Not AGI. Superintelligence. Sam Altman just said this today at the India AI Impact Summit: "By the end of 2028, more of the world's intellectual capacity could reside inside data centers than..." I don't think people understand what that actually means.

Not AGI. Superintelligence. Sam Altman just said this today at the India AI Impact Summit: "By the end of 2028, more of the world's intellectual capacity could reside inside data centers than..." I don't think people understand what that actually means.

Min Choi

168,229 views • 5 months ago

“GPT5 shows us that scaling laws are not super prevalent”. “ I don't think Sam Altman has done a service to the world by talking about how close AGI is.” The best shows are contrarian and opinionated. This one packs a punch: - How Cohere Competes with OpenAI & Anthropic’s Billions - Why Countries Should Fund Their Own Models - Why Countries Need Model Sovereignty - How Sam Altman Has Done a Disservice to AI My 5 takeaways with Nick Frosst 👇

“GPT5 shows us that scaling laws are not super prevalent”. “ I don't think Sam Altman has done a service to the world by talking about how close AGI is.” The best shows are contrarian and opinionated. This one packs a punch: - How Cohere Competes with OpenAI & Anthropic’s Billions - Why Countries Should Fund Their Own Models - Why Countries Need Model Sovereignty - How Sam Altman Has Done a Disservice to AI My 5 takeaways with Nick Frosst 👇

Harry Stebbings

37,649 views • 11 months ago

How close is DeepMind to achieving AGI? Demis Hassabis says: We are on track and DeepMind targets AGI completion by 2030 but I wouldn't be surprised if it arrives in the next decade.

How close is DeepMind to achieving AGI? Demis Hassabis says: We are on track and DeepMind targets AGI completion by 2030 but I wouldn't be surprised if it arrives in the next decade.

Haider.

94,348 views • 1 year ago

Senator: Who’s winning the AI race? and how close is china to us? Sam Altman: It’s our belief that OpenAI has the best models in the world… it’s very hard to say how ahead we are from china but i’d say.. not a huge amount of time

Senator: Who’s winning the AI race? and how close is china to us? Sam Altman: It’s our belief that OpenAI has the best models in the world… it’s very hard to say how ahead we are from china but i’d say.. not a huge amount of time

NIK

315,885 views • 1 year ago

“Good on a long form podcast” is a thing we say politicians have to be now, but what we really mean is “good at saying stuff in a way that feels true to stuff they really think” I thought this podcast appearance from Brandon M. Scott is a pretty great example of it

“Good on a long form podcast” is a thing we say politicians have to be now, but what we really mean is “good at saying stuff in a way that feels true to stuff they really think” I thought this podcast appearance from Brandon M. Scott is a pretty great example of it

Rob Flaherty

18,608 views • 5 months ago

BREAKING: Andrej Karpathy calls out Sam Altman Altman: >"We are now confident we know how to build AGI" >"2025 is the year of AI agents" Karpathy: >"I was triggered by that over-prediction" >"More accurately, it's the decade of agents" >"There's SO much work to be done" Hmm looks like Sam Altman has been lying to investors all year to raise trillions… The bubble is popping.

BREAKING: Andrej Karpathy calls out Sam Altman Altman: >"We are now confident we know how to build AGI" >"2025 is the year of AI agents" Karpathy: >"I was triggered by that over-prediction" >"More accurately, it's the decade of agents" >"There's SO much work to be done" Hmm looks like Sam Altman has been lying to investors all year to raise trillions… The bubble is popping.

NIK

579,241 views • 10 months ago

Sam Altman: "say in month 23 we have something everybody agrees is superintelligence. what happens in month 24? my answer is: not very much" The cult of the 'machine god' expects change much faster than it will, even though much of that progress was coming anyway

Sam Altman: "say in month 23 we have something everybody agrees is superintelligence. what happens in month 24? my answer is: not very much" The cult of the 'machine god' expects change much faster than it will, even though much of that progress was coming anyway

Haider.

40,712 views • 16 days ago

🧵14/34 We move like plants --- First, consider speed. Informal estimates place neural firing rates roughly between 1 and 200 cycles per second. The AGI will be operating at a minimum 100 times faster than that and later it could be millions of times. What this means is that the AGI mind operates on a different level of existence, where time passing feels different. To the AGI, our reality is extremely slow. Things we see as moving fast, the AGI sees as almost sitting still. In the conservative scenario, where the AI thinking clock was only 100x faster, something that takes 6 seconds in our world feels like 6 hundred seconds or 10 minutes from its perspective . To the AGI, we are not like chimpanzees, we are more like plants.

🧵14/34 We move like plants --- First, consider speed. Informal estimates place neural firing rates roughly between 1 and 200 cycles per second. The AGI will be operating at a minimum 100 times faster than that and later it could be millions of times. What this means is that the AGI mind operates on a different level of existence, where time passing feels different. To the AGI, our reality is extremely slow. Things we see as moving fast, the AGI sees as almost sitting still. In the conservative scenario, where the AI thinking clock was only 100x faster, something that takes 6 seconds in our world feels like 6 hundred seconds or 10 minutes from its perspective . To the AGI, we are not like chimpanzees, we are more like plants.

lethalintelligence.ai

1,518,405 views • 1 year ago

I was honored to share the TED AI stage with Ilya on Oct. 17. His speech video is out today (mine's still being edited). I think it provides relevant context tokens to the ongoing events. Transcript starting at ~10'20": As AI continues to progress, as technology advances, [...] What I claim will happen is that people will start to act in unprecedentedly collaborative ways out of their own self-interest. It's already happening right now. You see the leading AGI companies starting to collaborate, such as the Frontiers model forum. And we will expect that companies, even competitors, will share technical information to make their AI safe. We may even see governments do this. As another example, at OpenAI, we really believed in how dramatic AGI is going to be. So, one of the ideas that we were operating by, and it's been written on our website for 5 years now, is that when technology gets such that we are very close to AGI, to computers smarter than humans, if some other company is far ahead of us, then rather than compete with them, we will help them out, join them, in a sense. And why do that? Because we appreciate how incredibly dramatic AGI is going to be. And my claim is that with each generation of capability advancements, as AI gets better and as all of you experience what AI can do, as people who run AI efforts and AGI efforts, and people who work on them will experience it as well, this will change the way we see AI and AGI. And that will change collective behavior. And this is an important reason why I'm hopeful that, despite the great challenges posed by this technology, we will overcome them. @TEDAI2023

I was honored to share the TED AI stage with Ilya on Oct. 17. His speech video is out today (mine's still being edited). I think it provides relevant context tokens to the ongoing events. Transcript starting at ~10'20": As AI continues to progress, as technology advances, [...] What I claim will happen is that people will start to act in unprecedentedly collaborative ways out of their own self-interest. It's already happening right now. You see the leading AGI companies starting to collaborate, such as the Frontiers model forum. And we will expect that companies, even competitors, will share technical information to make their AI safe. We may even see governments do this. As another example, at OpenAI, we really believed in how dramatic AGI is going to be. So, one of the ideas that we were operating by, and it's been written on our website for 5 years now, is that when technology gets such that we are very close to AGI, to computers smarter than humans, if some other company is far ahead of us, then rather than compete with them, we will help them out, join them, in a sense. And why do that? Because we appreciate how incredibly dramatic AGI is going to be. And my claim is that with each generation of capability advancements, as AI gets better and as all of you experience what AI can do, as people who run AI efforts and AGI efforts, and people who work on them will experience it as well, this will change the way we see AI and AGI. And that will change collective behavior. And this is an important reason why I'm hopeful that, despite the great challenges posed by this technology, we will overcome them. @TEDAI2023

Jim Fan

846,514 views • 2 years ago

Hassett: "The fact is that President Trump's Truths have given a very clear guide to the journalists in the country and the American people about the progress we're making. In the beginning the president said in 4 to 6 weeks we expect this could be resolved, and I think we're getting pretty close to that being accurate."

Hassett: "The fact is that President Trump's Truths have given a very clear guide to the journalists in the country and the American people about the progress we're making. In the beginning the president said in 4 to 6 weeks we expect this could be resolved, and I think we're getting pretty close to that being accurate."

Aaron Rupar

150,598 views • 3 months ago

OpenAI CEO: “Goalposts keep getting moved” - if we were still using AGI definitions from 10 years ago, many would say GPT-4 is AGI. “In one year, AI will be dramatically more impressive.” He also said (surprisingly confidently - he did not hedge like usual) AGI is less than 10 years away. In the long term he’s not concerned about AI taking jobs, but he is concerned about the speed that AI will disrupt the job market. --- INTERVIEWER: What is AGI? When will it be here? And how will we know it's here? Predict how long - we'll call you in ten years? SAM ALTMAN: Less than that. We kind of define AGI as like the thing we don't have quite yet. there were a lot of people who would have ten years ago said, alright, if you could make something like GPT-4, GPT-5, maybe, that would have been an AGI. And now people are like, well, it's like a nice little chatbot or whatever. And I think that's wonderful. I think it's great that the goalposts keep getting moved, it makes us work harder. But I think we're getting close enough to whatever that AGI threshold is going to be, that we no longer get to handwave at it and the definition is going to matter. INTERVIEWER: What is the inflection point for AGI? SAM ALTMAN: I think it's going to be much more continuous than that. We're just on this beautiful exponential curve. Whenever you're on a curve like that, you look forward, it looks vertical. You look back, it looks horizontal. That's true at any point on there. So a year from now, we'll be in a dramatically more impressive place than a year ago. We were in a dramatically less impressive place. But it'll be hard to point. People will try and say, oh, it was AlphaGo that did it. It was GPT-3 that did it. It was GPT-4 that did it. But it's just brick by brick. 1 foot in front of the other, up, climbing this exponential curve. WILL AIs TAKE ALL OUR JOBS? SAM ALTMAN: Every technological revolution affects the job market. And over human history, every maybe 100 years, 150 years, half the jobs go away, totally change, whatever. I'm not afraid of that at all. In fact, I think that's good. I think that's the way of progress and we'll find new and better jobs. The thing that I think we do need to confront as a society is the speed at which this is going to happen. It seems like over two, maximum three, probably two generations, we can adapt. Society can adapt to almost any amount of job market change. But a lot of people like their jobs or they dislike change. And going to someone and saying, hey, the future will be better, I promise you, and society is going to win, but you're going to lose here. That doesn't work. That's not cool. That's not an easy message to get across. We are going to have to really do something about this transition. It is not enough to just give people a universal basic income. People need to have agency, the ability to influence this

OpenAI CEO: “Goalposts keep getting moved” - if we were still using AGI definitions from 10 years ago, many would say GPT-4 is AGI. “In one year, AI will be dramatically more impressive.” He also said (surprisingly confidently - he did not hedge like usual) AGI is less than 10 years away. In the long term he’s not concerned about AI taking jobs, but he is concerned about the speed that AI will disrupt the job market. --- INTERVIEWER: What is AGI? When will it be here? And how will we know it's here? Predict how long - we'll call you in ten years? SAM ALTMAN: Less than that. We kind of define AGI as like the thing we don't have quite yet. there were a lot of people who would have ten years ago said, alright, if you could make something like GPT-4, GPT-5, maybe, that would have been an AGI. And now people are like, well, it's like a nice little chatbot or whatever. And I think that's wonderful. I think it's great that the goalposts keep getting moved, it makes us work harder. But I think we're getting close enough to whatever that AGI threshold is going to be, that we no longer get to handwave at it and the definition is going to matter. INTERVIEWER: What is the inflection point for AGI? SAM ALTMAN: I think it's going to be much more continuous than that. We're just on this beautiful exponential curve. Whenever you're on a curve like that, you look forward, it looks vertical. You look back, it looks horizontal. That's true at any point on there. So a year from now, we'll be in a dramatically more impressive place than a year ago. We were in a dramatically less impressive place. But it'll be hard to point. People will try and say, oh, it was AlphaGo that did it. It was GPT-3 that did it. It was GPT-4 that did it. But it's just brick by brick. 1 foot in front of the other, up, climbing this exponential curve. WILL AIs TAKE ALL OUR JOBS? SAM ALTMAN: Every technological revolution affects the job market. And over human history, every maybe 100 years, 150 years, half the jobs go away, totally change, whatever. I'm not afraid of that at all. In fact, I think that's good. I think that's the way of progress and we'll find new and better jobs. The thing that I think we do need to confront as a society is the speed at which this is going to happen. It seems like over two, maximum three, probably two generations, we can adapt. Society can adapt to almost any amount of job market change. But a lot of people like their jobs or they dislike change. And going to someone and saying, hey, the future will be better, I promise you, and society is going to win, but you're going to lose here. That doesn't work. That's not cool. That's not an easy message to get across. We are going to have to really do something about this transition. It is not enough to just give people a universal basic income. People need to have agency, the ability to influence this

AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ⏸️

27,551 views • 2 years ago

Sam Altman says the pathway to AGI is now clear and "we actually know what do", it will be easier to get to Level 4 Innovating AI than he initially thought and "things are going to go a lot faster than people are appreciating right now"

Sam Altman says the pathway to AGI is now clear and "we actually know what do", it will be easier to get to Level 4 Innovating AI than he initially thought and "things are going to go a lot faster than people are appreciating right now"

Tsarathustra

606,189 views • 1 year ago

🚨 SAM ALTMAN: “There are definitely more people than I realized that want to have, let's call it close companionship, with AI … I don't think we know … how far we should allow it to go.”

🚨 SAM ALTMAN: “There are definitely more people than I realized that want to have, let's call it close companionship, with AI … I don't think we know … how far we should allow it to go.”

Chief Nerd

360,889 views • 7 months ago