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Sam Altman discussing why building massive AI infrastructure is critical for future models, „And as we look forward another year or two years, lets say iot takes 10 GW of compute, you could choose one of two things. Cure cancer by doing a bunch of reserach, or free education... show more

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38,259 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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ELON MUSK: SpaceX could have closer to 10 GW of compute next year. “We are building and deploying compute, I think, faster; our rate of growth certainly is faster than anyone else and our efficiency of compute deployment, I think, is also the highest. So we expect to end this year with over two gigawatts of compute. And probably our cumulative compute online by the end of next year will be several times higher. So it may, let’s say, be closer to 10 gigawatts of compute than five gigawatts of compute. That’s the way to think about it.”

ELON MUSK: SpaceX could have closer to 10 GW of compute next year. “We are building and deploying compute, I think, faster; our rate of growth certainly is faster than anyone else and our efficiency of compute deployment, I think, is also the highest. So we expect to end this year with over two gigawatts of compute. And probably our cumulative compute online by the end of next year will be several times higher. So it may, let’s say, be closer to 10 gigawatts of compute than five gigawatts of compute. That’s the way to think about it.”

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If OpenAI actually pulls this off and builds billions of GPUs, every single human on Earth would basically have access to their own GPU. That’s the vision of Universal Basic Compute Sam Altman has been hinting at, compute as abundant and accessible as electricity. Not just AI for the few, but AI for everyone.

If OpenAI actually pulls this off and builds billions of GPUs, every single human on Earth would basically have access to their own GPU. That’s the vision of Universal Basic Compute Sam Altman has been hinting at, compute as abundant and accessible as electricity. Not just AI for the few, but AI for everyone.

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"Compute is the currency of the future." "Compute is the new OIL." Great, so how do I invest? You can play with the NVIDIA stock, or spin up an AI-Ready Data Center. Challenges of Spinning up AI-Ready Compute: Cost: Even a small cluster of H100 machines is upward to $10M GPU Scarcity: Unallocated or “underutilized” H100, A100, and RTX4090 GPUs are almost non-existent. Very Specific Physical & Technical Requirements: A data center with the right infrastructure is also very rare. There are only 10 in North America that deploy thousands of GPUs, in the open market. Domain Expertise: Teams of experts with the years of experience required to operate, deploy, and manage AI compute at scale are as rare as the GPUs they deploy. Exabits checks all of these boxes and we are the premier Compute Tokenization Platform. We are backed by REAL COMPUTE used by REAL CUSTOMERS.

"Compute is the currency of the future." "Compute is the new OIL." Great, so how do I invest? You can play with the NVIDIA stock, or spin up an AI-Ready Data Center. Challenges of Spinning up AI-Ready Compute: Cost: Even a small cluster of H100 machines is upward to $10M GPU Scarcity: Unallocated or “underutilized” H100, A100, and RTX4090 GPUs are almost non-existent. Very Specific Physical & Technical Requirements: A data center with the right infrastructure is also very rare. There are only 10 in North America that deploy thousands of GPUs, in the open market. Domain Expertise: Teams of experts with the years of experience required to operate, deploy, and manage AI compute at scale are as rare as the GPUs they deploy. Exabits checks all of these boxes and we are the premier Compute Tokenization Platform. We are backed by REAL COMPUTE used by REAL CUSTOMERS.

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Steve Jobs was a great communicator of technology, and we could learn something from him today, in the context of AI. Sam Altman recently said, "If AI stays on the trajectory we think it will, then amazing things will be possible. Maybe with 10 gigawatts of compute, AI can figure out how to cure cancer." That's a fine quote. The abundance AI promises is super exciting. But Sam is saying that AI is going to figure out how to cure cancer. And if you've used these tools today, and talked to people who are at the labs, the reality is it's much more likely that humans will use AI to cure cancer. Steve might have said: "If AI stays on the trajectory we think it will, then amazing things will be possible. Maybe with 10 gigawatts of compute, humans can use AI to cure cancer." Small tweak, but a big difference. Steve Jobs was not one to shy away from impressive specs and massive scale, but flipping the final line from "AI will cure cancer" to "Humans will use AI to cure cancer" makes all the difference. Apple under Steve Jobs put human centrality at the heart of everything they did. And we need that spirit to infuse how we communicate about AI today.

Steve Jobs was a great communicator of technology, and we could learn something from him today, in the context of AI. Sam Altman recently said, "If AI stays on the trajectory we think it will, then amazing things will be possible. Maybe with 10 gigawatts of compute, AI can figure out how to cure cancer." That's a fine quote. The abundance AI promises is super exciting. But Sam is saying that AI is going to figure out how to cure cancer. And if you've used these tools today, and talked to people who are at the labs, the reality is it's much more likely that humans will use AI to cure cancer. Steve might have said: "If AI stays on the trajectory we think it will, then amazing things will be possible. Maybe with 10 gigawatts of compute, humans can use AI to cure cancer." Small tweak, but a big difference. Steve Jobs was not one to shy away from impressive specs and massive scale, but flipping the final line from "AI will cure cancer" to "Humans will use AI to cure cancer" makes all the difference. Apple under Steve Jobs put human centrality at the heart of everything they did. And we need that spirit to infuse how we communicate about AI today.

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Elon Musk: Why a 1 Terawatt AI is impossible on Earth?? "My estimate is that the cost-effectiveness of AI in space will be overwhelmingly better than AI on the ground. So, long before you exhaust potential energy sources on Earth, meaning perhaps in the four or five-year timeframe, the lowest cost way to do AI compute will be with solar-powered AI satellites. I'd say not more than five years from now Just look at the supercomputers we're building together. Let's say each rack is two tons; out of that two tons, 1.95 of it is probably for cooling. Just imagine how tiny that little supercomputer is Electricity generation is already becoming a challenge. If you start doing any kind of scaling for both electricity generation and cooling, you realize space is incredibly compelling Let's say you wanted to do 200 or 300 gigawatts per year of AI compute. It's very difficult to do that on Earth. The US average electricity usage, last time I checked, was around 460 gigawatts per year. So, if you're doing 300 gigawatts a year, that would be like two-thirds of US electricity production per year. There's no way you're building power plants at that level And then if you take it up to a Terawatt per year, impossible. You have to do that in space In space, you've got continuous solar. You don't need batteries because it's always sunny. The solar panels actually become cheaper because you don't need glass or framing, and the cooling is just radiative"

Elon Musk: Why a 1 Terawatt AI is impossible on Earth?? "My estimate is that the cost-effectiveness of AI in space will be overwhelmingly better than AI on the ground. So, long before you exhaust potential energy sources on Earth, meaning perhaps in the four or five-year timeframe, the lowest cost way to do AI compute will be with solar-powered AI satellites. I'd say not more than five years from now Just look at the supercomputers we're building together. Let's say each rack is two tons; out of that two tons, 1.95 of it is probably for cooling. Just imagine how tiny that little supercomputer is Electricity generation is already becoming a challenge. If you start doing any kind of scaling for both electricity generation and cooling, you realize space is incredibly compelling Let's say you wanted to do 200 or 300 gigawatts per year of AI compute. It's very difficult to do that on Earth. The US average electricity usage, last time I checked, was around 460 gigawatts per year. So, if you're doing 300 gigawatts a year, that would be like two-thirds of US electricity production per year. There's no way you're building power plants at that level And then if you take it up to a Terawatt per year, impossible. You have to do that in space In space, you've got continuous solar. You don't need batteries because it's always sunny. The solar panels actually become cheaper because you don't need glass or framing, and the cooling is just radiative"

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Sam Altman says the AI infrastructure race is not about bigger chatbots. It is about shifting the planet's intellectual output from human brains to AI brains. "If people knew what we could do with compute, they would want way, way more." "The thing I am personally most excited about is to use AI and lots of compute to discover new science." "A recent cool example here is we built the Sora Android app using Codex... in less than a month." "You can imagine that way much further, where entire companies can build their products using lots of compute." Then he gives the scale: "Let's say that an AI company today might be generating something on the order of 10 trillion tokens a day out of frontier models." "We're going to have these models at a company be outputting more tokens per day than all of humanity put together, and then 10 times that, and then 100 times that." The bottleneck is moving from software talent to compute supply, inference speed, product integration, and where all that machine intelligence gets pointed.

Sam Altman says the AI infrastructure race is not about bigger chatbots. It is about shifting the planet's intellectual output from human brains to AI brains. "If people knew what we could do with compute, they would want way, way more." "The thing I am personally most excited about is to use AI and lots of compute to discover new science." "A recent cool example here is we built the Sora Android app using Codex... in less than a month." "You can imagine that way much further, where entire companies can build their products using lots of compute." Then he gives the scale: "Let's say that an AI company today might be generating something on the order of 10 trillion tokens a day out of frontier models." "We're going to have these models at a company be outputting more tokens per day than all of humanity put together, and then 10 times that, and then 100 times that." The bottleneck is moving from software talent to compute supply, inference speed, product integration, and where all that machine intelligence gets pointed.

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Shaun Maguire on SpaceX IPO: "Starship is the railroad to space." "In 2019, it was very predictable that Starlink would work and produce a massive amount of revenue, and we called that right." "We're now in a very similar point to where Starlink was in 2019 with AI infrastructure and orbital compute." "I think people are really underestimating how far along the orbital compute product is right now." On the $22 trillion TAM: "What do you think is the TAM for intelligence? What's the TAM for all compute infrastructure 50 years from now?" "People are underappreciating how much infrastructure is going to be built in space and how much easier it is to access energy in space." "We're at the beginning of this AI era, and we're going to double or triple the total amount of intelligence that we have access to over the next decade — so yes, I absolutely believe in the TAM, and I would even argue it's an underestimate." How much is the "railroad to space" worth in the era of AI and orbital compute? Now imagine the railroad company also owns the AI and the orbital compute. Elon Musk Shaun Maguire

Shaun Maguire on SpaceX IPO: "Starship is the railroad to space." "In 2019, it was very predictable that Starlink would work and produce a massive amount of revenue, and we called that right." "We're now in a very similar point to where Starlink was in 2019 with AI infrastructure and orbital compute." "I think people are really underestimating how far along the orbital compute product is right now." On the $22 trillion TAM: "What do you think is the TAM for intelligence? What's the TAM for all compute infrastructure 50 years from now?" "People are underappreciating how much infrastructure is going to be built in space and how much easier it is to access energy in space." "We're at the beginning of this AI era, and we're going to double or triple the total amount of intelligence that we have access to over the next decade — so yes, I absolutely believe in the TAM, and I would even argue it's an underestimate." How much is the "railroad to space" worth in the era of AI and orbital compute? Now imagine the railroad company also owns the AI and the orbital compute. Elon Musk Shaun Maguire

KanekoaTheGreat

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