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🚀Season 2 got a buff 💥Baby Button & Channel Switch - live. Healing Boosters & Starter Pack incoming. GameFi never felt this fast. 🎥Buttons flew first. $OWB not far behind. 📢Jump into Discord CEO AMA · June 2 · 17:00 GMT Leaks. Love. Loot.

62,034 просмотров • 1 год назад •via X (Twitter)

Комментарии: 10

Фото профиля RedDeer.Games IR
RedDeer.Games IR2 лет назад

🚀 Ready for an epic gaming adventure? Join the action with @RedDeer_Games! 🎮 Watch the latest game videos and make sure to SUBSCRIBE for exclusive content! 📺 👉 Dive in now! 👉 Youtube: 👉 Play On: #Nintendo #Xbox #PS5 #Steam

Фото профиля Ripan Fadly
Ripan Fadly1 год назад

When klaim sir?

Фото профиля SouBolado
SouBolado1 год назад

🚀🚀

Фото профиля Anggi HUDL(🍊,💊)
Anggi HUDL(🍊,💊)1 год назад

I have logged in more than 15 times and completed point activities, why is my activity only counted for 14 days?

Фото профиля Darth Daver 「☄️G☄️」
Darth Daver 「☄️G☄️」1 год назад

Is anyone experiencing this I have been playing more than 4 days now but my active days hasn't add yet

Фото профиля Pencari Airdrop Kripto
Pencari Airdrop Kripto1 год назад

Wow just founded the area directly flat by the rocket😄

Фото профиля babygirl 🐐
babygirl 🐐1 год назад

why am I banned I did everything I played fair. I invited fair. I think you have favoritism. Please fix it, it's good that others have multiple accounts and are no longer banned. We played well and invited fair and were banned. Please check and fix it

Фото профиля Ripanfadliv
Ripanfadliv1 год назад

what are you doing? every time runs out plus claim time, we are here waiting until we don't sleep

Фото профиля TAHA (CEO)
TAHA (CEO)1 год назад

I received the Phase 1 Phase 2 award, the Phase 3 award is not visible.

Фото профиля remalaxx
remalaxx1 год назад

OWB to the moon

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SUPACELL REVIEW 🍿 - THIS SHOW WAS AMAZING . A black superhero show with a great storyline & a great cast ! 6 EPISODES IS WAY TOO SHORT & SHOULD BE A CRIME !! - Dionne was making me mad 🙄 girl how many times does he have to tell you to go home . You don’t have no powers . You watching all the action from the car like it’s a drive in movie in 3D - Michael had terrible communication cause why is it so hard for you to say “baby I’m trying to save your life” lmaoooo - Tazer needs to be called “KNIFER” because he love that knife 🔪 he hardheaded tho . When he went outside that party and got sliced up like fruit ninja lmaoooooo . Also when he kicked that girl Veronica . He did her DIRTY 😭😭 - Craig vs Tazer was hilarious cause why did he stab that man so many times at 100MPH & pushed his grandma over 😭. That’s a different kind of hate . - Sabrina sister irritated me cause she can’t never do right . First you outside making out with Spectacular from Pretty Ricky and then you go back to the same man that abused you and get mad he doing the same thing . - I love Sabrina . She was in the field . Prolly my favorite character . I don’t know why she felt bad for what she did to her ex , he was cheating and deserved it 😭 - When she looked up “A-Town” and Lil Baby popped up, I SCREAMED 😭😭😭 - Rodney was hilarious , but his story was sad . Not his mom abandoning him at 16 because she got married to a racist and Rodney is mixed . - Andre priorities all wrong . You got debt and bills but you buying your son a new phone & designer clothes and shoes 🤦🏾‍♂️😂 if you don’t take that boy to H&M lmaoo. You turning into the Hulk because they coming to collect what you OWE - Dionne really went over there taking them pictures loud as.f like Jasmine daddy ain’t tell her to go over and be quiet LMFAOO - I loved this tho. Gimme SEASON 2 ASAP !! #supacell

3/12 🎈

125,269 просмотров • 2 лет назад

Just in $AMD Anush "Speed is the moat"|ROCm🎙️ In the race to define the future of AI, what's the one advantage that truly lasts? It's not proprietary tech, argues Anush Elangovan Elangovan, VP of AI Software at AMD , but the sustainable speed of innovation. He explains why AMD is rejecting the "walled garden" model for its open source ROCm stack, betting that an open community flywheel is the key to victory. Listen to understand how this open strategy is designed to out-innovate closed systems by empowering developers to solve everything from frontier-model challenges to the mundane, everyday problems that define the "last mile" of AI. AMD ROCm Software: Part 1 Transcript [00:00:00] Andrew Zigler: Joining me is Anush Elangovan, VP of AI software at AMD. And when people talk about AI compute, the conversation often stops at hardware specs, but it's more than just physical chips that win the game. It's also the software ecosystems supporting them. [00:00:18] Andrew Zigler: The prevailing strategy in the industry has been to build something like a walled garden. You know, something closed, proprietary locks, developers in. But AMD is betting on an entirely different play, open source acceleration, and with rock, their open source AI software stack. AMD is building not just hardware parity, but an innovation flywheel that's powered by the community with interoperability and the freedom to scale without all of that pesky lockin. [00:00:48] Andrew Zigler: And in this world, speed is your moat and how fast you can innovate while your platform remains open, flexible, and standardize across all of its applications. That's what we're gonna explore [00:01:00] today. So Anush, I'm really excited to have you here. Welcome to Dev Interrupted. [00:01:04] Anush Elangovan: Thanks for having me. Uh, super excited to chat about it. [00:01:07] Andrew Zigler: Amazing. Well, let's go ahead and dive right in with kind of what I laid it out with in the beginning, the idea of the moat and it being about speed. I wanna unpack that a bit because that came from you when you and I first spoke. And I, and I want to know, you know, how do you define speed inside of AMD beyond just things like hardware, benchmarks. [00:01:27] Anush Elangovan: Yeah, that's a very good question. So when we typically talk about speed, everyone's like, Hey, hardware benchmark specs, right? Like, uh, memory bandwidth or, or flops. And that is one important part of it, uh, AMD does very well. With that, we do have, a, a very good history of executing on that axis. [00:01:47] Anush Elangovan: But when I say speed is the moat, it is about, uh, how we prepare, how we build the muscle to run the race for a long time and run it fast. And it is [00:02:00] not about a single point in time that you've, you've beat some you know, benchmark and, and you declare victory. It's about building the ability to consistently develop and deliver. [00:02:13] Anush Elangovan: Both hardware and software innovation at scale and do it fast, right? Like, you know, we we're increasingly getting to a point where models come out and they're, uh, you know, a year or two ago it was like, Hey, they work on AMD on day zero, which is great, but now they are performing on AMD the day it releases, right? [00:02:32] Anush Elangovan: So, what does it take to Prefetch where the industry is going? Be prepared to intercept. At that point is what you know, I, I refer to as you know, the, the speed factor in, in creating this mode, right? And the mode is just shed all things that hold you back and run as fast as you can. [00:02:53] Anush Elangovan: Uh, because the pace of innovation that is, uh, being seen in, in AI [00:03:00] industries is just. Amazing. Right? And it's like, it's transformational at at how you generate electricity. It's transformational as at how you build data centers. It's transformational at how you deploy compute, networking. It's transformational at what kind of use cases you, you know, uh, use AI for. [00:03:17] Anush Elangovan: Uh, and for that, you need to be prepared to, see what comes tomorrow and be prepared to run the race tomorrow. [00:03:23] Andrew Zigler: Yeah, it's a really great perspective because it highlights that it's not just like a checkpoint that you run through. I like how you called out, like it's not just hitting that benchmark or being the best in class at that moment, in that snapshot, it's about having a. The throughput and about having that dedication to the idea and continuing to deliver on it. [00:03:43] Andrew Zigler: It's not just crossing the threshold, but it's also being the engine. And that's what, that's what protects a business. That is the moat, because the moat is that innovation layer, the faster and more, uh, future forward. That you can work and think, [00:04:00] you know, the better. Uh, we, we talk a lot about like future forward work styles. [00:04:04] Andrew Zigler: Like what are the things I could be doing right now today that are gonna be like, way more useful tomorrow? Let, let's abandon those, workflows that are older and that kind of like, that translates into. An advantage when you work that way. You know, what kind of things have you learned working with, uh, like across all spectrums of people who would use ROCm, right? [00:04:23] Andrew Zigler: You have like the developers, but then you also have the enterprises and you have this large span of adoptees, right? So what is the, what does that look like that you learn? [00:04:32] Anush Elangovan: Yeah, so, so the way I look at it is there are gonna be pockets of different, uh, you know, cadences, right? Like, so people who are deploying in enterprises, for example, right? The validation and how long it takes for them to deploy an LLM that's secure. It's, with guardrails, et cetera, maybe longer. [00:04:52] Anush Elangovan: but you still have to go through the process and you have to be prepared to like, walk that walk to deploy an enterprises. That doesn't mean it's [00:05:00] not fast, that's as fast as you can do for that industry, right? And if you are deploying AI in healthcare, right, it's, it's got its own, uh, cycle. [00:05:07] Anush Elangovan: but in each one of these, you want to see how, like, go down to the essence of what is it that you actually have to do. And, you know, I, I, I like how you framed it. It's like it's, you shed your prior assumptions of how things are done, right. And, and you kind of build up from a, uh, first principles, uh, approach to say, this is how I could use AI to unlock, whatever I'm doing. [00:05:33] Anush Elangovan: And, and, some of it, you know, it's good to really step back and look at. Just question every part of it, right? Like right now you're getting chat GPT and, Gemini competing for like, math, olympiads and, and, uh, college, uh, reasoning, uh, tests. Right? And, and those are like that, that is amazing and increasingly like complex tasks that they're trying to do. [00:05:58] Anush Elangovan: But there may also be like. [00:06:00] More mundane things that AI could, could get applied to. Right? And, and so when we think about shedding old ways, you wanna shed it not just in like the tip of the spear. It's like, you know, I'm gonna see what's the frontier model. It's also, it could be something as simple as. [00:06:18] Anush Elangovan: How do you choose a, a movie, uh, you know, like a recommendation system, right? Or, or, uh, an automated, uh, flight, uh, rebooking system. So the moment, you know, your flight is late, uh, right now it's a notification, right? It's like, oh, you got a text message saying your flight's late. And I got that like three times this week. [00:06:38] Anush Elangovan: But anyway, uh, and, and, and, and, I was just like, okay, so if I were to rethink this. All this MCPs that we have that should be hooked up into an MCP that says, your flight's delayed. Here are your options. If you want, you know, these are the paid options. Yeah. Here are the free options. This will get you back into your you know, Toronto airport [00:07:00] tonight. [00:07:00] Anush Elangovan: Or if you stay, here's a hotel plus this, plus this, plus. It's just like, go ahead is all I should say. Versus now I'm like, okay, can someone, you know, can I call a travel agent? Can I do this? Can I go online and log into And you know, so we gotta fundamentally rethink even those like small, nuances of, things that we do that can be automated out and AI is really, really good at doing something like this, right? Maybe I just explained an AI startup idea right now. Somebody should just start that. [00:07:29] Andrew Zigler: I think you did. Yeah, you definitely did. Someone, one of our listeners is definitely going to lift that off of you. I, I, I, you know, I hate being on the receiving end of those. You feel a little helpless and then you have to like, follow the whole flow. So I know what you mean. Like I, I like how you called out that the build and this like. [00:07:45] Andrew Zigler: Where speed is your moat and the innovation layer is protecting you, is what makes you better than your competitors. How you scale that and you bring that to market. So by understanding the problems that you're solving, uh, throwing away those older assumptions, but also [00:08:00] recognizing that like. We're building every single day, new things and new ways of using stuff that we're still figuring out the implications of. [00:08:08] Andrew Zigler: And so when you have a lot of velocity and you're introducing a lot of new ideas, and maybe you have that workflow now that automatically rebook your flight off of your late flight text message, and uh, I know I would certainly use it, but you know, what kind of philosophies guide the way that y'all think about building this ecosystem to manage that stability while letting folks. [00:08:29] Andrew Zigler: Play with the speed and the assumptions and the airplane re bookings. [00:08:34] Anush Elangovan: so, so I think, you know, we need to peel one layer down, right? and the philosophy is, Hey, we, we just discovered electricity, right? And you know what we're gonna do? We are gonna make motors, uh, or dynamos, right? Like engines. Uh, sure. We don't know if it's gonna be a Ferrari that you're gonna make, or it's a a a a dump truck. [00:08:57] Anush Elangovan: That's good for doing this. But let's [00:09:00] let, which is also required, right? You need a dump truck. You need a garbage truck. And, [00:09:04] Andrew Zigler: Yeah. You need the [00:09:04] Anush Elangovan: course you need, uh, a Ferrari for a midlife crisis, right? So, [00:09:09] Andrew Zigler: precisely. [00:09:10] Anush Elangovan: But, but my, uh, point is what do we build next? And, uh, and this is what I meant by like, okay, let's, let's take those baby steps to build the. [00:09:20] Anush Elangovan: Infrastructure that's required that we know we'll have to use, right? So, so if I just discovered electricity, okay, great. Now one, how do I save this electricity and how do I use it? So there's battery technology, so you need to do something like that, right? Like so. But then you also want to make it into an actionable thing. [00:09:37] Anush Elangovan: You want to make it for like automobiles, or you wanna use it for, you know, powering, uh, entire cities. So it is that transformational. So, uh, AI is that transformational. So, if you distill down, it'll, it'll come down to how do we think about, what we can do with this this fundamental technology that, We may not be aware of what it [00:10:00] is gonna unlock next, but at least you know the next step is clear, right? It's like a dense fog, you know, it's gonna be like, it, it's the right path. You see the light, but it's kind of like out there and, and the steps you're taking are concrete and you're like, okay, this is good. [00:10:16] Anush Elangovan: I, this is better than where I was or where we were. So we are moving forward. So you can build with the. Intuition from what you see in the short term and a tactical view, but towards what you think the future is gonna be. [00:10:28] Andrew Zigler: Right. You almost like we're all in this like fog of war, right? And like you said, you're reaching out and you're trying to step through it. You could think of it too, as like you're in the dark and your hands are up in front of you and you know that. You're, you're not gonna run your face into a wall because your hands are out in front of you, but you're not gonna maybe do much better than that. [00:10:45] Andrew Zigler: So that's kind of like, I think the eco, the, the industry, the world that we find ourselves in, uh, and we all have to, then this becomes the power of an ecosystem, of a group of people working together to create that layer of, [00:11:00] uh, of establishing the [00:11:01] Anush Elangovan: exactly. And I, I, I just, instead of, you know, saying fog of war I describe it as like, you're in this. Beautiful valley with like a morning, uh, fog that's in. You can smell the flowers. You, you hear the birds. You are like, okay, it's, we are in like, uh, utopian paradise and yes, I just need to like, continue the walk, right? [00:11:24] Anush Elangovan: and then move forward with that, conviction that you're in the right spot. [00:11:27] Andrew Zigler: Yeah. So let's talk about that ecosystem world. This nice, I love how you describe it, this grassy side of a hill in the morning that's covered in some mist and maybe we can't see 30 feet in one direction, but it sure is a beautiful hill and it smells nice. And so we're all here. And why is, in that world, why is. [00:11:44] Andrew Zigler: You know, open source, their strategic advantage that y'all are going for in the AI hardware market. And, and then how does like ROCm turn that into wins for people within that ecosystem? [00:11:56] Anush Elangovan: you know, the, the way we look at it is this, is kind of like how I view [00:12:00] AI and the ecosystem, right? But, but it is for everyone to enjoy. Uh, and so we do want to make sure that. You know, it is, uh, beneficial for everyone. [00:12:09] Anush Elangovan: The ecosystem can come in and, and innovate. It's an open innovation engine. and uh, it is very different from, you know, having a walled garden with, Hey, only I know how to do this and I'm gonna do it and throw it over the fence and you can use it or keep walking, right? So we'd like to be good citizens that way, but also. [00:12:30] Anush Elangovan: Uh, it is self-fulfilling in a way, right? Like it, the, the pace at which we innovate with open source is unmatched. Like, you know, our serving engines are like VLLM and, and sg l. Those things, uh, those frameworks are like super, super aggressive in terms of how fast they come out with features and how fast they can you know, get performant models out. [00:12:52] Anush Elangovan: And that compared with what, uh, you'd get from, you know, the likes of like T-R-T-L-L-M or something is always lagging, right? Because you [00:13:00] just can't keep up with you know, 200 commits a week just on one particular model to get that model really performant [00:13:06] Andrew Zigler: And, and, and in that world where, you know, everyone can enjoy the winds of this, what kind of customer stories or innovation stories have really stood out to you and excite you about building and creating this place for developers? [00:13:19] Anush Elangovan: Yeah. So I think the parts that are super exciting for me are when when we get to see a customer that is first skeptical. Then they start a little like, okay, fine, we'll give you a chance. Uh, we do a simple, uh, POC and then they're like, huh, this seems to work. Yeah, we told you it works. [00:13:42] Anush Elangovan: You don't have to change one line of code. Really? Yes, no need to change one line of code. Okay, let's try a production workload. So then they try it. Oh, you're more performant than the competition. Yes. We're more performant than, than the competition. So how much does it cost? And we're like, oh, it's your TCO is better with, uh, [00:14:00] AMD. [00:14:00] Anush Elangovan: So again, they're like, wow, okay, good. So now how do we deploy at scale? And then we go deploy it at scale. And when they give a thumbs up on that and they say, this is good, right? That's when you know, you, you see it go full circle from like, oh, we, we've never heard about AMD to like actually deploy to tens of thousands of GPUs In the order of a few months, right? It, it, it really is fascinating to see and very exciting and invigorating to [00:14:28] Andrew Zigler: Yeah. At like a great exposure to a lot of interesting problems. And, and then people using the infrastructure, the, the technology available to solve those problems. Really specific problems by the way, that's often why they're bringing their data and AI to it, uh, is because it is really specific and important for them. [00:14:45] Andrew Zigler: And there's a, a lot I think that other engineering orgs can learn and even emulate from AMD's success and, and having this open source ecosystem and it causing this acceleration within. You [00:15:00] know, uh, customers and enterprises that use and adopt the tools and, and, and that creates an advantage. And that goes back to why we're talking and like the real thesis of our conversation today. [00:15:10] Andrew Zigler: So how do you think engineering leaders that are listening to this and obviously tapping into this great success AMD has from an open source flywheel, how do you think other, other folks building in the same space can foster that open, first, that open source oriented culture in order to, you know, accelerate their innovation goals? [00:15:29] Anush Elangovan: Yeah, that's a very good question. So the startup that um, was acquired by AMD we, we built, I mean, we started off doing iot stuff and you know, smart ring and all that, right? But in the, the end of like, uh, and not the end, the last six years of the company was building ML compilers. [00:15:47] Anush Elangovan: And ml, ML compilers are like super, uh, complicated, sophisticated, advanced algorithms, dah, dah, dah. but it was all open source, right? So our VCs were like, wait, what do you mean your core [00:16:00] IP is open source? And um, the speed is the moat applied even then, right? It was just like, yes, if you have an idea that. [00:16:08] Anush Elangovan: Because someone saw this idea that you are, they're gonna be able to catch up, then you probably have the wrong idea anyway. But if they are, you know, you execute and they're gonna catch up, that you should assume they're gonna catch up. Right? So you gotta move forward. So keeping it open source is super important. [00:16:25] Anush Elangovan: But also to your question on like, you know, the learnings from an AMD standpoint, right? If there are, hard problems, I'd say dig in and work through it, right? Like there's no way but through it, right? That should be the simple mentality. And more, uh, frequently than not. you'll see that you'll just make it through in a, in, in good form. [00:16:52] Anush Elangovan: But if you doubt it and you're like, oh, I don't know if I should commit, if I'm, I, you know, what should just commit to do the right thing [00:17:00] every step, right? Every step, and just keep taking one step in front of the other. And in no time you'll see that you'll be running. Right. And, and yes, the first few steps will be like, yeah, everyone's complaining about your software quality. [00:17:15] Anush Elangovan: Everyone's complaining about this and that, and it doesn't work. And, and a few steps in, you know, you get, you get the hang of all the complaints that are coming in. You get the feedback loop. You're like, okay, what, what are you prioritizing again? One step in front of the other, right? You just keep knocking that out and then you get to a point where you're, it just becomes second nature, right? To do the, to do the right thing. And, and then yes, if someone gives you two options, you'll be like, fine. This is, uh, you know, there's always the resource trade off. There's always a human capital trade off, but what's the right thing to do? of course, I, I'm pragmatic about what we choose, but, but if the right thing for your long-term success is dig in, go first, principles, make it [00:18:00] happen. [00:18:00] Anush Elangovan: Well. Then just go for that. There's, there is no shortcut to [00:18:04] Andrew Zigler: acknowledging, you know, how it aligns with your mission, your core company goals, and what you're looking to achieve. And, and I, I love how you rightfully called out that in the open source world and you know, you have your technology that you've built, what you think is your moat upon, right? [00:18:22] Andrew Zigler: It's your code and, and to open source that, or to just make it where anyone could peer in is, you know. Scary in one regard, but two, it just kind of feels like you're handing away your throne room in some kind of sense, a very direct feeling sense. But the ultimately, you were really right to call out, and this is something I think about all the time, that the real power there is still the speed This the speed. [00:18:42] Andrew Zigler: That was the moat at the beginning of our conversation. It's the speed in combination with your. Very specific domain understanding of what you're building and what you're creating, and your new role as the steward of that world and how people plug into it, which [00:19:00] has frankly, a lot more influence and power than lording over a closed. [00:19:04] Andrew Zigler: You know, repository or an ecosystem, and like you said, like throwing things over the wall. Sure. There, there might be people always on the other side of that wall, but you're not gonna have a great connection with them. You're not gonna be able to really clearly understand them. I, I like your metaphor of the side of the field of the mountain a lot more. [00:19:23] Andrew Zigler: But, but in the, in this world, you know, where. That speed is, is the power and, and open source is just one way that you can harness that speed to get really far ahead and to innovate. , There's other parts of this equation that you can be experimenting with too, and I'd love to pick your brain about them as a software leader and, and, and one of them is about looking forward and kind of understanding that future that we're all building towards and beyond today's models and hardware. [00:19:48] Andrew Zigler: You know, what do you see as the next major bottleneck or opportunity in the AI compute space? As, as you know, enterprises and folks start to get a little more mature about what's available to [00:20:00] them. [00:20:00] Anush Elangovan: Yeah, I think, the bottleneck and opportunity is, uh, what I'd call, call walking the last mile of ai. Right. Uh, and like I I, I gave you an example, uh, previously, but, but it's similar to that. It's like there are cases where Humans have so many, uh, things to do in your day. You know, like the, if we sit down and actually had a customer focus like, okay, these customers lives, I'm gonna save four hours of this customer's life. And if you actually sit down and look at all of that, it'll be. Easily automatable, easily you know, uh, applicable, uh, for ai, right? [00:20:39] Anush Elangovan: Like, but then making it happen is gonna take a little bit, right? It's like maybe it's, uh, paying your utility bill, right? Or something like that, right? Or, or, your healthcare explanation of benefits. Uh, like, I'm sure you get an explanation of benefits, and I'm like, I, I don't even know what that thing is. [00:20:55] Anush Elangovan: It's just like EOB and like. [00:20:57] Andrew Zigler: it's a big, a big old PDF. Yeah, [00:21:00] exactly. [00:21:01] Anush Elangovan: Like, like, I'm like great straight to the, uh, shredder, right? And but that could be, you know, automated with the ai, right? It, it, it'd be like, Hey, the summary of this thing is you went and visited this day. Everything is okay. Everything is paid for, so don't worry, it's not a bill. [00:21:17] Anush Elangovan: That again, the same, uh, thing, but the sense of what that information overload is could be. Digested by ai, uh, accumulated over time and retrieved when you need it. Like, I don't, I actually don't even need to know this EOB right now, unless of course, whenever I need to know it, that maybe, you know, like for some benefits I need to figure out what do, what did I do over the past year and how do I apply it? Source:

Mike

15,145 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Some Big Numbers To Get Excited About Regular readers will know I often write of frustration at not moving fast enough. This mission I am on is really hard and sometimes it can seem impossibly big when I am down in the weeds dealing with dog issues on a daily basis. I have to say though that writing this tonight and looking through some numbers I feel for the first time that I am starting to make some large scale progress… A Second Island 🌴🥥 I live and help the dogs on the island of Koh Samui. There is an island of equal size called Koh Phangan just across the water. You probably have heard of it as the home of the world famous Full Moon Party. They have a similar problem with street dogs. Since the the 1st May I have starting funding a wonderful foundation called PACS to sterilise dogs there. They are starting with 50 this month. This is going to stop 1000s of future puppies. A big step. 90,000 Meals Served in 2023 So Far 🥘👨‍🍳 The cooking never stops. The dogs are all starting to benefit from a consistent and healthy meal per day. All the food is prepared in a central kitchen and handed out to volunteers to feed their dogs. With 5000 meals served per week around the island it blows my mind that soon we will serve the 100,000th wholesome plate of food in 2023. It wasn’t that long ago I was driving around on my moped with a 10kg bag of dry food feeding a paltry 20 dogs per day on my own. 7 Puppies Re-Homed 🐶🏠 In the last couple of weeks there have been 25-30 puppies show up. It can be incredibly tough to find them homes but thanks to a great Thai lady I have been able to get 7 into their forever homes around the country. It has involved a lot of vet visits, 1000kms of travel and lots of expense but that is 7 dogs who have a future now who wouldn’t have made it otherwise. 2 Miracles For Lady 🙏😊 The first miracle for Lady was the fact that she got off the street and was able to start walking a little again despite her two broken hips. We’ve been getting her a lot of treatment and she is thriving. Her 2nd miracle was when a lovely newly retired gentleman called Jamie spotted her and offered Lady a forever home to live out her life right here on the island. Nobody usually wants old and sick dogs so this incredibly selfless act is the huge slice of luck that Lady deserved after all the suffering she has endured. The Best Day Of Tina’s Life 🐕🥰 Tina was used for breeding puppies. We all saw the horrendous state she was in when she was rescued. Last week she was well enough to be sterilised so as she never has to have another puppy in her life again. It might seem like a small footnote in the bigger scheme of things but it was a moment of closure for this wonderful lady who has suffered so much. She can now just focus on being a dog for for the first time in her life and sharing all the love she has to give. Tina was the 521st dog I have sterilised since starting. King Whacker Of Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿✈️ Whacker is a very special dog who was one of the first arrivals back in November. Someone had tried to kill him with a pick axe. After recovering he turned into a true gent and is the big boss at the land. I promised he would never have to go back on the streets and this week after a process to find him the right home he got the news that he will be heading to Glasgow. Long live Whacker, the King of Scotland. 125 Dogs To Be Sterilised In May ✂️🐕 I spoke about how abstract sterilising can be for many people to understand but it is what will save the most dogs from suffering. In all of 2022 I was able to do 302 dogs. In the month of May alone I have a minimum target to fund 125. In June I hope to take that to 250 dogs for the month. Not easy and very expensive but I’m putting the groundwork in place to scale this up. Nothing is more important. Little Rodney was in getting the snip last week as one of the dogs this month. 7 European Dogs 🇪🇺🛫 By the end of June there will be 7 dogs who have traveled to Europe. Lottie, Hope, King Whacker, Rodney and Moritz will join Little Squeak and Peaches who just arrived in Germany. I can’t explain how hard it is to figure all this stuff out and get the processes in place. I’m focusing on Europe now as it is the easiest for travel and paperwork but the rest of the world will happen soon too. It’s only 7 dogs but seeing them in their homes or about to travel makes me so happy and proud for them all. Progress The suffering I see on a daily basis for street dogs means that I am never really happy with the speed and progress of my mission. I just want to help them all immediately but that isn’t possible. Having said that, reading this update and knowing what else is coming in the pipeline makes me feel that I am making genuine progress. Between food, funding sterilisations, medical care and re-homing dogs I can genuinely now say I’m helping 100s of dogs per month but also stopping the suffering of 1000s in the future. As I always say I could never do any of this without the online support and good wishes of everybody on the mission with me. I don’t feel like I am alone doing this. My role is to make sure I don’t waste all the support and ensure I think of ways to move faster and execute accordingly. A lot done, a lore more to do. Big Love Niall P.S You can always support by donating here...

Niall Harbison

193,838 просмотров • 3 лет назад

Bitcoin to End Wars? 🚨 Federal Reserve to Start World War III? 🌍 (Private Central Banks & Warfare 🌐) 🤖 *Robotic Crypto Trader ► ⭐⭐ AI-Driven Trading Bot! (GoBabyTrade!!) ✔️ Profits while you sleep! 24/7 crypto trading! ✔️ Simply connect your Coinbase and start “default”! ⚡💰 Exclusive limited-time offer: *Get $1,000 off!!* … *Start now!: ⭐ ➜ 🚀 … Weekly Webinar!: ⭐ 👽 *Uphold⁺ ► ⭐⭐ Game-changing web3 financial platform! ✔️ #1 All-In-One: buy, sell, trade, store, manage! ✔️ Fully reserved, radically transparent, proof online! ✔️ Connected to 30+ providers, deep liquidity! ⚡💰 *Up to 4.65%* on USD balances! (FDIC Insured!) … *Sign up now! ⭐ ➜* 💳 *Tangem Card ► ⭕ *Tangem Ring ► ⭐⭐ Easiest hardware wallet, portable style!! ✔️ Simply tap to your phone and you’re in! ✔️ Low cost, must-have! Access all crypto! ⚡💰 *Get 5% off!!* Promo Code: CRYPTOCASEY5 … *Order now!: ⭐ ➜ 🔐 *Ledger Wallets ► ⭐⭐ NEW!! Ledger Stax & Flex On Sale NOW!! ✔️ Highest security, secure touch screen! ✔️ Full ecosystem, 1000's of coins/tokens! ✔️ Advanced management of your assets! ⚡🎁 Holiday Special: *Up to $70 in FREE BTC!!* … *Order now!: ⭐ ➜ ▬▬▬▬▬ “PRIVATE CENTRAL BANKS FUND WARS!” 😡 TO ENSLAVE THE WORLD 🌏 Hello, fam! Crypto Casey here 👋 and I'm on a mission to improve people’s lives through #crypto education. In this video, we explore how private central banks have been enslaving the world for centuries, highlighting the importance of bitcoin. ▬▬▬▬▬ TOP CRYPTO TOOLS TO GET TODAY! 💥💥⚡ ⭐👽 *Uphold⁺ ► Game-changing web3 financial platform! Rivals banks! ⚡💰 *Up to 4.65%* on USD balances! (FDIC Insured!) ✔️ #1 All-In-One: buy, sell, trade, store, manage! 💳 *Tangem Card ► ⭕ *Tangem Ring ► Easiest hardware wallets! Fully portable! ⚡💰 *Get 5% off!!* Promo Code: CRYPTOCASEY5 ✔️ Simply tap and you're in! Sleek, stylish! ⚡🔐 *Ledger Wallets ► NEW!! Ledger Stax & Flex On Sale NOW!! ⚡🎁 Holiday Special: *Up to $70 in FREE BTC!!* ✔️ Highest security, secure touch screen! ▬▬▬▬▬ SET UP YOUR TRADING BOT TODAY!! 💥💥🚀 🤖 *Robotic Crypto Trader ► Automated AI-Driven Trading Bot! (GoBabyTrade!!) ⚡💰 Exclusive limited-time offer: *Get $1,000 off!!* ✔️ Profits while you sleep! 24/7 crypto trading! BUY NOW! ► FULL REVIEW! ► *WEEKLY WEBINAR!* ► CONNECT BOT TO YOUR TRADING ACCOUNT! ⭐ 🧿 Coinbase ► ⭐ 🐙 Kraken Pro ► ▬▬▬▬▬ CHAPTERS 💬 (Watch to the end!) 00:00 - Another World War? 02:40 - Currency Act 04:50 - Ignorance of Coin & Credit 06:25 - History Repeating 07:31 - First Bank of United States 08:00 - War of 1812 08:40 - Second Bank of United States 10:13 - Civil War & Assassinations 12:40 - Third Bank of United States 13:25 - Next Generation of Banking 14:35 - Federal Reserve 16:20 - World War I 17:35 - World War II 18:40 - John F Kennedy 19:40 - Off Gold Standard 22:10 - World War III 24:15 - Transfer Crypto to Wallet ▬▬▬▬▬ FOLLOW MY ONLY OFFICIAL CHANNELS! 📢 ⭐ Linktree (Deals) ► ⭐ TikTok ► ⭐ Twitter ► ⭐ Instagram ► ⭐ Podcast ► ⭐ Facebook ► ▬▬▬▬▬ TAGS: #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #cryptocasey NOTE: This description contains affiliate links. If you purchase a product through one of them, I will receive a commission (at no additional cost to you). Thanks for supporting the channel! ⁺UPHOLD DISCLAIMER: Terms Apply. Capital at risk. Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong. Balances $1,000 or more earn 4.65% APY; under $1,000 earn 2% APY. Rates subject to change. Cash deposited in the USD Interest Account solely for the purpose of accessing the Cash Sweep Program is not protected by SIPC or FDIC; you are able to have up to $2,500,000 FDIC insurance when your cash is swept into the program banks. See Atomic Cash Sweep Terms & Conditions and full details and disclosures. DISCLAIMER: The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and not to be construed as financial, legal or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome. © 2024 Crypto Casey. All rights reserved ▬▬▬▬▬ ❤️ Be safe out there. —Crypto Casey

Crypto Casey

32,927 просмотров • 1 год назад

Made $313 → $2,382,780 in 4 Days Using a Claude AI Bot on Polymarket. 26,738 trades. 98% win rate. Full blockchain proof. Every single trade verifiable on-chain. I've made the exact step-by-step guide to build this Claude Polymarket bot from scratch. You've been trading for 3 years. Still red. He gave Claude $313. Woke up rich. Free for 24 hours. To get this Setup guide: 1. Comment "Money" 2. Like and Retweet 3. Follow me Himanshu Kumar (so i can DM you) Full 2-hour video tutorial attached. Every single click and command explained. Beginner to running bot. Now let me break down exactly how this works. Save this post. This is the most important trading breakdown you'll ever read. ↓ Let's start with the number that should make you sick. $313. That's what this wallet started with. Not $50,000. Not $10,000. Not even $1,000. $313. Less than your monthly Netflix + Uber Eats + Spotify combined. 4 months later: $2,382,780.80. That's a 7,942x return. While you spent those same 4 months staring at charts, drawing trendlines, panic selling, revenge trading, and ending the month exactly where you started. Minus the $200 you lost on that "sure thing." Same 4 months. Same market. Same opportunities. He had a bot. You had feelings. Guess who won. Save this post right now. What I'm about to explain is the exact mechanism behind every dollar of that $2.38M. Follow Himanshu Kumar so you don't miss the rest. ↓ How Polymarket actually works and why bots print money on it. Polymarket is a prediction market. Will BTC be higher in 15 minutes? Yes or No. Will the Fed raise rates? Yes or No. You buy shares between $0 and $1. If you're right, your share settles at $1. If you're wrong, it settles at $0. Simple. Now here's where it gets interesting. Polymarket updates its prices SLOWER than the real market moves. When BTC drops 0.6% on Binance, Polymarket still shows old odds for about 2.7 seconds. 2.7 seconds. In those 2.7 seconds, the bot already knows the outcome. It's not predicting. It's not guessing. It's reading information that already exists and trading before Polymarket catches up. That's not trading. That's collecting free money with a 2.7 second head start. And you're over there using a 15-indicator TradingView setup trying to "predict" where BTC goes next. The bot doesn't predict anything. It just reads faster than you. That's the entire edge. Save this post because if you understand this one concept you understand how millionaires are being made on Polymarket right now. Follow Himanshu Kumar for more breakdowns like this. ↓ Let me walk you through one single trade. A new 15-minute BTC contract opens on Polymarket. Odds are 50/50. Fair price. 10 minutes in, BTC drops 0.6% on Binance. Hard, fast move. The real probability of BTC being lower at expiry is now about 78%. Polymarket still shows 54/46. The bot sees this instantly. Binance WebSocket feed. Under 50ms latency. The edge is 24 percentage points. On a binary contract, that's basically free money. Bot calculates position size using Kelly Criterion. Executes via Polymarket's API. Done. Within 2-3 seconds, other participants update the odds. 54/46 moves toward 78/22. Bot either exits for immediate profit or holds to resolution. Either way, the trade was entered with near-certainty of a positive outcome. Now repeat this 200-500 times per day. $313 → $2,382,780 in 4 months. Not magic. Not prediction. Not luck. Industrial-scale exploitation of a market inefficiency that still exists today. And you're still placing one manual trade per day and calling yourself a "trader." This is the mechanism behind every single dollar. Bookmark this post so you can study it again. Follow Himanshu Kumar because I'm breaking down each strategy separately. ↓ There are 4 strategies. Not all Claude bots do the same thing. Strategy 1: Latency Arbitrage. Win rate: 85-98%. What 0x8dxd used. Monitor Binance price feeds. When Polymarket odds lag behind reality by 3-5%, buy the correct side before the market corrects. No forecasting. No model. No sentiment analysis. Pure speed. You're not guessing. You're reading an outcome that has already happened. Strategy 2: Oracle Arbitrage. Win rate: 78-85%. Chainlink oracle price feeds occasionally diverge from Polymarket's implied prices. When they do, the settlement direction is known. Fewer opportunities. Higher certainty when they appear. Strategy 3: News-Driven Trading. Win rate: 60-75%. Claude ingests real-time news. Government filings. Central bank statements. On-chain data. Assesses probability impact before retail traders even finish reading the headline. Lower win rate because interpretation introduces uncertainty. But works on ANY market category, not just crypto. Strategy 4: Market Making. Return: 2-5% per month. Place buy and sell orders on both sides. Capture the spread. No prediction required. Most consistent. Hardest to blow up. Compounds aggressively over time. You didn't even know there were 4 strategies. You thought "trading bot" meant one thing. That's how far behind you are. 4 strategies. 4 different risk profiles. 4 ways to make money while you sleep. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for the deep dive into each one. ↓ The timeline that should haunt you. December 2025: Bot launches with $313. Nobody notices. January 6, 2026: Wallet hits ~$438,000. 140x in 30 days. 6,615 predictions. 98% win rate. Finbold reports it. Crypto Twitter explodes. March 10, 2026: Head-to-head test. Claude bot: $1,000 → $14,216 in 48 hours. +1,322%. OpenClaw bot: fully liquidated. Same market. Same timeframe. Claude won because of better risk management. OpenClaw died because it overleveraged. March 16, 2026: Someone trains a swarm model on 3 years of NBA data. Result: +$1.49M on Polymarket. April 2026: 0x8dxd final verified balance: $2,382,780.80. 26,738 trades. 4 months. This all happened while you were "waiting for the right time to start." The right time was December 2025. The second best time is right now. But you'll probably wait until it's too late. That's what you always do. Every date on this timeline is a day you could have started but didn't. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar so you at least start today. ↓ Why Claude and not ChatGPT? This isn't opinion. It's data. March 2026 head-to-head: Claude bot: +1,322%. OpenClaw (GPT-based): liquidated. Same prompt. Same market. Same conditions. Researchers found Claude's code included: > More defensive edge cases > More conservative default parameters > Better error handling > More legible code for debugging > Proper Kelly Criterion position sizing > Hard drawdown kill switches ChatGPT's code overleveraged into a losing sequence and couldn't recover. Claude's code sized positions conservatively, stopped trading when drawdown thresholds hit, and survived to compound another day. The difference between +1,322% and liquidation wasn't the strategy. It was the risk management. And Claude writes better risk management than ChatGPT. That's not a debate. That's a $15,216 difference in 48 hours. But sure, keep using ChatGPT because "everyone uses it." Everyone's broke too. Coincidence? Stop using the popular tool. Start using the profitable one. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for more Claude vs ChatGPT comparisons with real data. ↓ Why humans lose to bots. Every single time. Same strategy. Same market. Same period. Bots: ~$206,000 profit. Humans: ~$100,000 profit. 2x gap. Same strategy. Here's why: 1. Late entries. By the time you identify the lag, verify your reasoning, and click buy, the 2.7 second window is gone. The bot executes in under 100ms. You execute in 30 seconds. The opportunity doesn't exist for 30 seconds. 2. Emotional sizing. You oversize when "confident." Undersize when scared. Exact opposite of Kelly math. The bot sizes based on edge. Every time. No feelings. 3. Fatigue. You make worse decisions at hour 6 than at hour 1. The bot makes the same decision at hour 72 that it made at hour 1. 4. Drawdown psychology. After 3 losses you either panic quit or double down trying to recover. Both destroy capital. The bot has a kill switch. It stops. It doesn't feel anything. You're not competing with other humans anymore. You're competing with machines that don't sleep, don't feel, don't flinch. And you're losing. The data doesn't lie. Humans lose to bots 2x on the same strategy. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for the complete bot setup that removes you from the equation. ↓ What can go wrong. Because I'm not going to lie to you. Most people who build this bot will NOT 7,942x their money. Some will lose their initial capital. Here's what can kill you: Edge compression. The arbitrage window was 12 seconds in 2024. It's 2.7 seconds now. It's shrinking. At some point it hits zero for retail operators. This is a time-limited opportunity. Not a permanent income stream. Rule changes. Polymarket can change contract mechanics, settlement rules, or API terms overnight. What worked yesterday can lose money tomorrow. Risk management bugs. A 98% win rate strategy with broken position sizing will blow up your account on the one losing trade. The March 2026 experiment proved this. Claude survived. OpenClaw got liquidated. Same strategy. Different risk management. That's why the 2-hour video tutorial walks through every single risk parameter. Because the strategy doesn't kill you. Bad risk management kills you. This is the section most "gurus" delete. I'm keeping it because I'd rather you make money safely than blow up and blame me. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for honest breakdowns, not hype. ↓ The step-by-step to build your own. Step 1: Set up a Polymarket wallet. Fund with USDC via Polygon network. Start with $100-$300 for testing. Step 2: Generate API credentials. CLOB API key from docs.polymarket .com. Store private key in environment variable. Never hardcode it. Never share it. Step 3: Prompt Claude to build the bot. Use Claude Code for best results. It reads your filesystem, executes code, and iterates on errors autonomously. Step 4: Paper trade for at least one week. Minimum 200 completed trades. Win rate must be above 70% before going live. This step is NOT optional. Step 5: Configure risk management. Max single position: 8% of portfolio. Daily loss limit: -20% with auto halt. Kill switch at -40% drawdown. Telegram alerts on every threshold. Step 6: Go live small. $1-5 per trade. Watch every trade for first week. Compare to paper results. Scale only on evidence. Skip steps 4 and 5 and you will lose your money. That's not a warning. That's a guarantee. This is your complete build guide. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar because I'll be posting the exact Claude prompts for each strategy. ↓ The edge exists right now. Not next month. Not "when you're ready." Right now. The arbitrage window is 2.7 seconds. It was 12 seconds in 2024. It's shrinking every week. Every day you wait, more bots enter the space. The window gets smaller. Your potential returns get smaller. The bots already running have a compounding advantage. They're making money today that they'll use to make more money tomorrow. You're reading about it and telling yourself "I'll look into this next weekend." That's what you said last weekend. And the weekend before that. The best time to start was 6 months ago. The second best time is today. But you already know you're going to bookmark this and never open it again. Prove me wrong. ↓ Full 2-hour video tutorial attached. Every single click. Every command. Every parameter. From zero to running bot. Beginner friendly. Nothing skipped. A similar bot has already earned $2,382,780. Full blockchain proof in the article below. The video is free. The tools are free. The edge still exists. The only thing that costs money is another month of doing nothing while bots eat every opportunity you're too slow to catch. Follow Himanshu Kumar for the complete series covering every automated income stream using Claude. Prediction markets are just the beginning. Save this post. Bookmark it. Screenshot it. Whatever you need to do so you actually watch the video and build the bot instead of just reading about people who did. You Must Follow me Himanshu Kumar, so i can send you DM.

Himanshu Kumar

53,247 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Charlie Munger reveals why smart people wreck their own decisions without ever noticing it happening: He built a career-long list of the exact mental glitches that trip up geniuses and fools alike, and laid it all out in one Harvard talk. It is one of the most quietly devastating things you will ever watch: 1. Nobody respects incentives enough, not even the people who study them. Munger spent a lifetime near the top of his field and still got surprised. "Well I think I've been in the top 5% of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power of incentives, and all my life I've underestimated it." If the master of the subject keeps underestimating incentives, everyone else is doing it worse. 2. FedEx couldn't fix its night shift until it fixed the paycheque. He loved this story because it proves structure beats persuasion. "The heart and soul of the integrity of the system is that all the packages have to be shifted rapidly in one central location each night. And the system has no integrity if the whole shift can't be done fast." They tried everything except changing how people got paid. Once they paid by the shift instead of the hour, the problem vanished. 3. A skilled surgeon can talk himself into hurting people for money and believe every word of it. This is the darkest lesson in the whole talk. A Nebraska doctor kept removing healthy gallbladders for years before anyone stopped him. Munger asked a colleague if the man knew what he was doing. "Tell me, did he think, here's a way for me to exercise my talents," this guy was very skilled technically, "And make a high living by doing a few maimings and murders every year, along with some frauds?" And he said, "Hell no, Charlie. He thought that the gallbladder was the source of all medical evil, and if you really love your patients, you couldn't get that organ out rapidly enough." Incentives don't just bend behaviour, they bend belief. 4. Even a brilliant mind can turn into a one-trick pony. Munger used B.F. Skinner, one of Harvard's most important scientists, as the cautionary tale. "What gummed up Skinner's reputation is that he developed a case of what I always call man-with-a-hammer syndrome, to the man with a hammer, every problem tends to look pretty much like a nail." Genius doesn't protect you from tunnel vision. It just makes the tunnel vision more convincing. 5. Denial is not weakness, it is a universal human default setting. A mother who lost her son at sea simply refused the fact of it. "This first really hit me between the eyes when a friend of our family had a super-athlete, super-student son who flew off a carrier in the north Atlantic and never came back, and his mother, who was a very sane woman, just never believed that he was dead." As Munger put it plainly elsewhere in the talk, the reality is too painful to bear, so you just distort it until it's bearable. Everyone does this. Founders do it about failing products. Investors do it about failing bets. 6. Taking something away hurts people far more than giving them the same thing helps them. He used his own dog to make the point unforgettable. "I took the Munger dog, lovely harmless dog. The one way, the only way to get that dog to bite you was to try and take something out of its mouth after it was already there." He followed it with a neighbour's blood feud over a three-foot pine tree blocking a sliver of harbour view. "People are really crazy about minor decrements down." Founders who cut a perk or a title learn this the hard way. 7. Boards of directors almost never stop a leader who has gone off the rails. This is the line every investor on X should screenshot. "They only act, again the power of incentives, they only act when it gets so bad that it starts making them look foolish, or threatening legal liability to them. That's Munger's rule." Governance sounds like a safeguard. In practice it is mostly theatre until the risk to the board itself becomes personal. 8. Simply being visible changes behaviour, no persuasion required. He picked the most familiar brand on earth to prove it. "Ask the Coca-Cola company, which has raised availability to a secular religion, if availability changes behavior. You'll drink a hell of a lot more Coke if it's always available." Distribution is not a nice-to-have. It is the lever. 9. A crowd of decent people will watch someone suffer and do nothing, because everyone else is doing nothing. Munger used the murder of Kitty Genovese as his sharpest example of social proof gone wrong. "All these people, I don't know, 50, 60, 70 of them just sort of sat and did nothing while she was slowly murdered. Now one of the explanations is that everybody looked at everybody else and nobody else was doing anything, and so there's automatic social proof that the right thing to do is nothing." Silence in a room is not neutral. It is a signal, and it spreads. 10. The real danger is never one bias alone, it's several firing at once. When asked which single tendency mattered most, he refused to pick just one. "I would say the one thing that causes the most trouble is when you combine a bunch of these together, you get this lollapalooza effect." Individually these glitches are survivable. Stacked together, they produce the biggest disasters in business history. Here's the thing though.... Munger never ran a startup and never chased attention for its own sake, yet he became one of the most quoted people in business because he kept showing up and saying the true thing out loud, year after year, at Berkshire meetings and lecture halls and student Q&As. Buffett built the balance sheet. Munger's voice, carried across decades of speeches like this one, built the reputation that made people trust the balance sheet in the first place. Being public wasn't a side project for him. It was the multiplier that turned one very smart investor into a permanent reference point for how to think. Speaking of which: We build massive distribution and grow personal brands on X and beyond without our clients lifting a finger. If you're a founder or VC looking for that kind of exposure, book a call below. We average 1.5M views a week.

Lewis 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

58,157 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

here's what most app founders don't tell you about scaling your app on tiktok here's the actual playbook, not the generic level "just post consistently" advice: accounts use personal/creator accounts, not business. business locks you out of trending sounds entirely, you get stuck with a library of 40 generic royalty-free tracks nobody's ear recognizes as "tiktok sound," and sound is half the algo's read on your content don't buy an aged account unless you can post from the exact location it was created in. mismatch the vpn/location and you'll watch views crater to single digits within days, tiktok resets your trust score fast pick one avatar, one template, one visual style. lock it in for at least 15-20 posts before you touch it. switching every few videos tells the algo you're a different account every time, you never build a consistent signal views aren't what you think they are 30-200 views is not a shadowban. shadowbanned means 0 views, full stop, nothing gets pushed. 30-200 means the hook, pacing, or format just isn't landing yet "i copied that viral video frame for frame" — you didn't. the millisecond pause before the reveal, the exact caption position (top third vs center), font size relative to screen, all of it is doing more work than the concept itself. people copy the idea and skip the 200 micro-decisions that made it work good content still won't always go viral. a 5:1 view-to-like ratio is genuinely strong signal, it just doesn't guarantee reach. the algo rewards volume of good attempts, not one perfect video cal ai didn't get one viral hit and coast. they ran hundreds of videos in the same format on repeat, and kept posting through videos that flopped at 1000 views. the winners paid for the losers views ≠ downloads, and this trips up everyone 1M views with almost no installs is extremely common. prank format, funny skit format, anything built for pure entertainment gets massive reach and contributes basically nothing to your install numbers because nobody's thinking about your product, they're thinking about the joke tutorial format does a fraction of the views and converts 10x better. screen recording of the actual app, green screen walkthrough, finger literally tracing where to tap. it's less entertaining and it's the format that pays your bills if you only chase views you'll optimize yourself into a wall of engagement with no revenue behind it content that doesn't scream "ad" don't slide the app into every single post, most of what you post should just be good standalone content bad: "here's why my app has 15 features your current app doesn't" good: "i saved $500 last month and used it to buy my kid a ps5" walks into walmart, grabs a ps5 off the shelf "had no idea i was burning $500/mo on subs i forgot to cancel" the app name/logo shows up after the value hit lands, never before. the viewer needs to feel the outcome first, the brand is just the explanation for how they get it too zero ideas? screenshot your competitors' top 20 tiktoks and study exactly what they're doing in the caption text, the hook, the pacing. copy the format, not the literal video. nobody's reinventing organic distribution from scratch, everyone's remixing what already works working with creators without torching your budget skip influencers at the start unless you've got real spend to burn. you'll pay a few hundred bucks, get 10k views, feel nothing happened, and quit the whole channel cheap ugc reaction clips ($2-5 for a 3-5 second reaction) stitched onto your own tutorial footage gets you dozens of usable videos in a day, this is the highest leverage move for a small budget pay per view if you can get creators to agree to it. rpm between $0.5-$2 depending on how "tutorial-ish" the content is, cap payout at $200-500 per video so you're not exposed. hard to find creators who'll take this deal but they exist, worth asking posting without tripping the flags skip the phone farm, skip the expensive 4g/5g proxy setup. you'll burn a month building infrastructure and still end up throttled a vpn is fine if you're targeting a country you're not in. tiktok can see the vpn, that alone doesn't flag you what actually gets you flagged: → reposting pinterest images hoping tiktok won't recognize them → posting 4+ times within an hour → random disconnected content with no pattern between posts → switching phones or vpn servers constantly → running more than 3 accounts from one setup → posting immediately on a brand new account with zero warmup batch a full month of content in one or two sessions. you already know you won't "post again tomorrow" once life gets in the way connect the vpn first, then open tiktok, so the algo resets to your target country before you touch anything. schedule max 2-3 posts a day with something like hootsuite, set it to drafts instead of auto-publish, review each one before it actually goes live link in bio is quietly killing your conversions tiktok's in-app browser doesn't carry the user's saved logins or cookies. they tap your link, hit "sign in with google," nothing autofills, nothing's remembered, they bail in 3 seconds fix: detect when your link is opened inside tiktok's in-app browser and show a quick prompt telling them to tap the three dots → open in browser. gets them into safari or chrome where their session actually persists, this single fix recovers conversions most people don't even know they're losing

Mufasa

17,518 просмотров • 21 дней назад

Charlie Munger spent 50 years studying why intelligent people make catastrophically stupid decisions. It is the most useful thing I have ever watched: 1. Incentives are more powerful than anyone thinks. Munger says he has been in the top 5% of his age cohort his entire life in understanding the power of incentives and he has still underestimated it every single year. Federal Express could not get their night shift to work efficiently until someone realized they were paying by the hour. They switched to paying by the shift. The problem disappeared immediately. 2. People rationalise terrible behavior when their incentives point that way, and they do not even know they are doing it. A doctor in Nebraska was removing perfectly healthy gallbladders for years. When Munger asked an old colleague whether the doctor knew he was harming patients, the answer was no. he genuinely believed the gallbladder was the source of all medical evil and that removing it was an act of love. That is incentive-caused bias at its most extreme. 3. Psychological denial is real, and it is not just for weak people. A family friend's son flew off a carrier in the North Atlantic and never came back. His mother, a completely sane woman, simply never believed he was dead. Reality was too painful, so she distorted it until it was bearable. Munger says we all do this to some extent, and it causes terrible problems. 4. Consistency and commitment tendency are one of the most powerful forces in the human mind. Once you have stated a position publicly, you are psychologically locked into it. Max Planck said the really important new physics was never accepted by the old guard. A new guard came along that was less brain blocked by its previous conclusions. If this happened to the deans of physics, Munger says, imagine what it does to ordinary people. 5. The Chinese brainwashing system used on prisoners of war worked better than torture. They did not start with big demands. They maneuvered people into making tiny little commitments and declarations and slowly built from there. The same mechanism operates in every cult, every sales system, and every ideology that gets deeply embedded in people's heads. 6. Pavlovian association shapes buying behavior at a level most people never consciously process. Munger estimates three quarters of all advertising works on pure Pavlov. Coca-Cola does not want to be associated with funerals. They want to be associated with the Olympics, wonderful music, heroics. The association itself changes how people feel about the product at a subconscious level. Raising the price of a product can actually increase its market share because price and quality are associated in the human mind, and people use price as a signal of value. 7. Persian messenger syndrome is alive and running every major organization. The Persians killed the messenger who brought bad news. Bill Paley in his last 20 years, did not hear one thing he did not want to hear. everyone around him knew bringing bad news was dangerous. The result was that one of the most powerful men in media made terrible decisions for two decades because reality never reached him. 8. Social proof causes otherwise intelligent people to follow each other off cliffs. When one oil company bought a fertilizer company in the 1970s, practically every other major oil company rushed out and did the same. There was no rational reason for oil companies to own fertilizer companies. But if Exxon was doing it, it was good enough for Mobil. Every single acquisition was a disaster. 9. The efficient market theory persisted in academia for decades despite Berkshire Hathaway existing as a living contradiction. One economist kept adding sigmas to explain away the anomaly. two sigma, then three, then four, eventually six sigma. Munger's observation: It is better to add a sigma than change a theory just because the evidence comes in differently. That economist later went into money management himself and sank like a stone. 10. Contrast bias warps perception constantly and invisibly. Put your hand in hot water, then room temperature water. It feels cold. Put your hand in cold water, then room temperature water. It feels hot. same bucket. The human sensory apparatus has no absolute scale, only a contrast scale. Real estate agents exploit this deliberately. They show you two overpriced, awful houses first, then take you to a merely overpriced house, and it feels like a bargain. 11. The frog in slowly heating water is the business version of contrast bias. If something bad comes to you in small pieces, you are likely to miss it entirely. Munger says he has known many high-powered brilliant businessmen who were destroyed this way. not because they were stupid but because each incremental change was too small to trigger alarm. The contrast was never large enough to notice. 12. Authority bias is so powerful it can make trained professionals watch a plane crash. In flight simulator experiments, when the pilot, the authority figure, does something that any trained co-pilot knows will crash the plane, 25% of the time, the co-pilot sits there and lets it crash anyway. They have been trained to know better. The authority relationship overrides the training. 13. Deprivation super reaction syndrome explains why people go insane over small losses. Munger's neighbor had a 180 degree view of the harbor. the neighbor put in a pine tree about 3 feet high that turned it into a 179 and three-quarter degree view. They had a blood feud that went on for years. The New Coke disaster is the corporate version. Coca-Cola told customers they were changing a flavor and triggered a deprival super reaction so powerful that Pepsi was weeks away from releasing old Coke in a Pepsi bottle. smart engineers. brilliant lawyers. armies of psychologists. All missed it. 14. Envy and jealousy are far more powerful than greed and almost entirely absent from psychology textbooks. Munger says Warren Buffett has said half a dozen times that it is not greed that drives the world but envy. In a thousand-page psychology textbook, the index entry for envy and jealousy is blank. One of the most powerful forces in human behavior and academia essentially ignores it. 15. Gambling addiction is not explained by variable reinforcement alone. Skinner thought he had fully explained gambling by showing that variable reward schedules pound in behavior more powerfully than fixed ones. But the people who design modern slot machines know things Skinner did not. Lotteries where you pick your own number get far more play than lotteries where the number is assigned to you. People who commit to a number believe it has more validity because they chose it. Near misses on slot machines trigger deprival super reaction syndrome. It is four or five psychological tendencies working together, not one. 16. The most dangerous situations are when multiple psychological tendencies combine toward the same end at once. Munger calls this the lollapalooza effect. Tupperware parties use four or five tendencies simultaneously. Moonie conversion methods combine multiple tendencies and work extraordinarily well. alcoholics anonymous achieves a 50% no drinking rate when everything else fails because it also combines multiple tendencies toward a constructive end. The Milgram experiment is not just about obedience. it involves authority bias, consistency and commitment tendency, and contrast effects all working together. That combination turns human brains into mush. 17. Boards of directors are structurally designed to fail as corrective mechanisms. The top executive is the authority figure. He is doing something questionable. You look around, and nobody else is objecting, which is social proof that it is fine. He flies you around in the corporate jet and raises your director fees every year, which triggers reciprocation tendency. Munger's rule: boards only act when the behavior gets so bad it starts making them look foolish or threatens legal liability. That is the only forcing function that reliably works. 18. John Goodfriend of Salomon Brothers destroyed his career and reputation because he did not fire a trusted employee who had lied to the government. Every psychological tendency pointed toward keeping the man. He was a close colleague. His wife was known. He was part of a group that had made over a billion dollars for the firm. He said he had never done it before and would never do it again. Goodfriend looked into his eyes and believed him. The man did it again. The lesson: everyone who gets caught embezzling says they have never done it before and will never do it again. That is what they all say. 19. Darwin avoided confirmation bias by deliberately seeking out disconfirming evidence. Munger says Darwin was not especially smart by ordinary standards of human acuity. Yet he is buried in Westminster Abbey. Munger studied how Darwin worked and realized he had psychological tricks worth learning. Darwin always paid extra attention to evidence that contradicted his theories. Munger started doing the same and credits it as one of the most important intellectual habits of his life. 20. Why is the most important word in communication? Carl Braun designed oil refineries with spectacular skill, and you got fired in his company if you wrote a communication without explaining why. not just who, what, where, and when, but why. Braun knew that in a complex system where things can blow up, a communication system that always explains the reason behind an instruction works dramatically better than one that does not. Forstein, the general counsel of Salomon, told Goodfriend on multiple occasions that he had to report the employee's misconduct. He explained it was the right thing to do. He never explained what would happen to Goodfriend personally if he did not. he failed to use the most powerful tool of persuasion. Goodfriend ignored him. When Goodfriend went down, Forstein went with him.

Jaynit

777,169 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

The “I never wanted any of this to be public or content” Lie, A Timeline I never wanted any of this to come out. Except I actually mean that. It’s embarrassing, it’s trashy, and it’s the opposite of how I want to present myself publicly. I stayed silent for months while lie after lie was spun about me behind the scenes because I didn’t want to air private, messy moments from a relationship I genuinely cared about. I stayed silent out of fear, because I was told no one would believe me because he would be blindly believed on his large platform. In one of our very last conversations before I blocked him everywhere mid-October, he threatened to do a show on me, contact my employer, and “turn me into the next Lindsey”. Why? Because I didn’t want to continue apologizing to him for the 300th time about venting to someone I thought was a friend. I stayed silent because of these threats. But after Wednesday, after Chelsea posted the private video Aidan gave her, (the same one he threatened me with directly back on 10/2), and after the gaslighting, I don’t have a choice anymore. So here is the timeline. Here are the receipts. Here is what actually happened. September-October 2025- I Stayed Silent Through Months of Smear Campaigns For months, several creators repeated the same false narrative that “Aidan never said a bad word about Meredith.” Jess. Glarer. Auntie Deb. Kim. Ray from Dallas. Others. Meanwhile, Aidan was: • Badmouthing me privately and encouraging others to do so publicly, • Texting Joe “Flipperhead” entire paragraphs trashing me, • Aidan knew Joe would leak them (and even bragged on a stream that he did exactly that so he’d leak them), • Sending Jess Machado after me for months on her large platform, • Directing people behind the scenes to paint me as a villain. • Sending random people who supported me DMs to change their mind (yes Aidan, not everyone is fooled by your bullshit and they came right to me). I ignored all of it. I said nothing. I stayed silent through daily lies because I didn’t want to call more attention to it or face Aidan’s wrath. November 2025 -The Rumors About “March 4” and Joe Flipperhead Flips to Team Aidan Aidan texted Joe his entire made-up version weeks ago. Joe circulated those texts on purpose. Joe threatened me with posting a video montage of mine and Aidan’s private texts. Joe is a pussy so he eventually had Kristy post it for him. Creators discussed it publicly without me ever responding. I STILL didn’t defend myself. November 26-27, 2025- Ratchet Chelsea: The Full 48 Hour Meltdown 11/26/25— The Unprovoked Attack & The March 4 Video On Tuesday night, Chelsea came out of nowhere and launched herself straight at me, accusing me of all kinds of conspiracies from harassment to the horrific crime of sending a friend request, which is explained in vivid detail in the below post (she’s since gone somewhat viral, love this for her!) She spent the next 24 hours thoroughly embarrassing herself and the moment anyone challenged her story even slightly, she did what she always does: she imploded. Her accusations spiraled into her posting the March 4 video. On 11/26/25 at 11:08 PM, Chelsea posted the first clip–a blanket, context-less snippet of me drunk saying something I immediately apologized for the next morning. At 11:50 PM, I responded because at that point, I had no choice. 11/27/25— The 9-Minute Backpedal Then on Thanksgiving, Aidan tried to save face by posting that he “didn’t want the video to be public.” And like clockwork, nine minutes later, Chelsea came charging into the comments like a Temu-sponsored bat out of hell, scrambling to apologize, trying to rewrite reality so it looked like he didn’t send her to do it. It was panicked, sloppy damage control. An amateur quality cover-up attempt that only made it more obvious how coordinated this all was. She wasn’t apologizing because she grew a conscience. She was apologizing because she got caught doing exactly what she’d been primed to do. I wonder if Aidan called her “you should’ve waited at least 20 minutes, dumbass!!!”. Not too bright that Chelsea. I can only imagine the regrets he must have for utilizing someone with the IQ of a pencil to do his dirty work. The Coordination Between Aidan & Chelsea Is Obvious Chelsea had virtually NO followers Wednesday morning. Aidan was one of the first. We’re supposed to believe someone with 150k followers just stumbled on an account that starts posting HIS private messages and HIS private videos? Kk. Aidan commented on her posts that same day, clearly encouraging it, continuing to this day, all while pretending he's not directing it. Kk. She confirmed in my DMs back on 11/6 that she and Aidan were aligned. And she literally wrote at 4:04 AM that she had “proof,” videos & screenshots she would release if I didn’t “stop calling” her, calls she still hasn’t produced a single shred of proof of. Then yesterday within 9 minutes of his post, she writes: “Sorry for going rogue, Aidan, I hope you don’t hate my guts.” Going rogue? From WHAT? Who gave you the material in the first place? The coordination is obvious to anyone with functioning brain cells. The “I never wanted this public” lie Aidan’s post yesterday claimed he “never wanted this to be public.” He’s been threatening me for months behind the scenes to post the infamous video. To do a show on me. To send things to others to weaponize against me. If this were true, why did he instruct Chelsea to post it? Why did he share it with Jess Machado to threaten me with for the last month? Why did he share it with Joe Flipperhead, and God knows who else? If he didn’t want it public, he wouldn’t have shared it with anyone, let alone the girl I caught him cheating with. The timeline is clear– Chelsea posted a video at 11:08 pm on Thanksgiving Eve, I responded at 11:50 out of self defense. He leaked first. He escalated first. He weaponized it first. Trying to rewrite that now is gaslighting, pure and simple. The “Meredith accused him of abuse” narrative is FALSE My actions tell the truth: • I never went to police. • I never filed anything. • I never told anyone he hit me. • I never repeated it. • I apologized the next day. • We stayed together for FOUR more months after that night. • He called me 100+ times some days, even indicating he’d end his life if we broke up. If he believed I was “dangerous,” his actions would have said that. They didn’t. The only reason this is public now is because HE leaked it. Actions > drunk slurred words said because a camera was shoved in my face when I asked him repeatedly to stop filming and to leave. The Wilbur Theatre Rumors—Let’s get petty for a second. This is another topic I’m cringing at discussing but we can thank Aidan for since he shared our sexual messages with Joe Flipperhead. And since some people (Auntie Deb, sweetie, this means you) insist on pushing their Dollar Store fan-fiction about the Wilbur Theatre night, let’s actually walk through what happened, using facts instead of whatever drug-induced hallucinations you’ve been spinning this week. The rumor goes like this- I was “mad at Aidan because we didn’t hook up,” and to “prove” it, they trot out a cherry-picked text where I said I wanted to hook up, he didn’t answer, and the next morning I said I was drunk and sorry. And somehow this has been spun into me being desperate, obsessed, or pining like a background character in a teenage soap opera. Adorable. Wrong, but adorable. Here’s the real plot twist-Aidan and I had already been together literally two days earlier, and shocker-that was initiated by him, not me. I didn’t just “show up at the Wilbur”. He invited me to come to the after party at Encore knowing I had a wedding earlier in the night. I wanted to see my friends there who I actually met to go with. This wasn’t a surprise, it was planned ahead of time. The “I was drunk, sorry” message wasn’t heartbreak. It wasn’t longing. It was me politely tapping the brakes because I didn’t even want to entertain whatever bad path it could lead us back down. And then? He texted me asking about my brother’s wedding, how I am, etc. I ignored him for a full week. Until I had no choice but to speak to him about MereNeill. That silence, from me, is what triggered his latest meltdown. Not mine. His. So no, Auntie Deb, your version isn’t “a different perspective.” It’s just wrong. Like wildly, hilariously, not-even-in-the-ballpark wrong. But sure, keep spinning fanfic if it makes your livestreams feel more exciting. I realize it’s probably been awhile since you’ve had any action since you’ve let yourself go so badly, so you live vicariously through others. Recap For MONTHS I ignored: • the texts he sent Joe to leak • the smear campaign • the creators parroting lies • the behind-the-scenes messages • the insinuations I hacked him and even shared revenge porn • the constant coordinated attacks • the threats of “turning me into the next Lindsey” • his warning that everyone would believe him because of his platform • the threats to contact my employer I didn’t clap back, didn’t retaliate, didn’t respond. But Wednesday, when Chelsea dumped the video he gave her, the same video she threatened weeks ago to drop, AND he posted pretending he didn’t want this all out? That was the line. They chose the nuclear option. And last night's gaslighting grift was just the icing on the cake. Now I’m responding with facts in pure self-defense. Conclusion/Message for Temu Storm This entire mess could have stayed private. I wanted it to stay private. But when someone leaks your private moments, lies about your intentions, weaponizes your past, and coordinates an online attack, you either let the false narrative stand or you defend yourself. I’m choosing to defend myself with receipts, not gossip. With timelines, not “he said.” With evidence, not weaponized drunk clips. And then there’s Aidan’s favorite delusion. The claim that I was ‘working with Karen behind the scenes’ or ‘conspiring with her to get him in trouble for the recording.’ That could not be further from the truth. I didn’t even know he had recorded her until after she already knew about it herself. I wasn’t working with her, plotting with her, or communicating with her about it. She and I have always been friendly, but we didn’t even discuss the recording until it started leaking and Joe Flipperhead went feral on Twitter. Meanwhile, Aidan spent weeks screaming at me, accusing me of being some kind of secret double agent, like he was trying to create the betrayal he was terrified of. Almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. And here’s the reality: in the last few weeks, after he’s gone fully scorched earth on me, I have talked to her, and I support her 100%. The things he’s done to her over the past couple years, and the way he twisted it all for his followers, is the exact same manipulation I lived through. I’m not going into her details because that’s her story to tell… but let’s just say I have a feeling you’ll be hearing it sooner rather than later. The lie that Aidan never wanted this to be public is just laughable at this point. Who are we kidding? He's been foaming at the mouth for months to make this content where he can play the victim, as usual. And since this week has apparently become “Let’s All Fixate on Meredith Week,” let me address the content-creator sideshow, too. Some of you are strangers, while some I actually considered my friends. It’s shocking but not shocking how quickly you all flip a switch and follow your captain’s orders. Ray from Dallas spent his Sunday foaming at the mouth in a hostile little video about me, all bark, no substance. I saw it. I’m not intimidated. Mostly, I’m embarrassed for you. Then there’s Will, who’s gone on multiple streams calling me “crazy” and pretending he’s scared of me, despite me being nothing but nice to him. Why? Because he thinks I was the first one to tell Karen he heard the recording, which he absolutely did (unless Aidan is lying about who he played it for, but we know he’s actually telling the truth on this for once). She was informed of it the very next day, which is why she called you and you know this. This was two full days before I was even aware of a call at all. Will, for someone with your track record, maybe sit the “women are dangerous” narrative out. You’re not fooling anyone. I’m staring at 15 pages of police reports and no, it’s not all “things you’ve owned up for in the past”. You know this. Again, I’d take a very large seat here. And my personal favorite-Auntie Deb, who decided to spice up his Spaces on Thanksgiving by accusing me of distributing revenge p*rn with zero evidence, zero screenshots, zero anything. Accusing me of killing a turtle yesterday. A completely fabricated felony tossed around like it’s gossip hour at the bingo hall. Considering your own professional history, James, I’d hope you of all people would understand how catastrophic false accusations can be, but apparently not. I wonder if you’ll have that same enthusiasm when the topic is you. TBD. I’ll wait for that retraction about revenge p*rn, animal abuse, etc. Ball’s in your court hun. And of course, there’s Jessica Machado, who’s been grinding this axe for months like it’s her full-time personality. Hos long did you cry when Chelsea beat you to the punch with that video? Don’t worry hun, there’s more but she didn’t post it because it’s not great for your fairytale. Since you reported my last post, I'll leave the rest up for your imagination. You’ve been so obsessed with me for so long that you can’t even keep your own narratives straight anymore. I love this so much for you. Let me be crystal clear–I am done being all of your punching bag. You love to spin this narrative that I’m this dangerous person. You’d think you’d lay off from constantly f*cking with me if you truly believed that. I would genuinely love for this nonsense to stop. But that requires ALL of you to stop manufacturing drama, stop lying, and stop weaponizing made-up crimes for clicks. And if they want to keep going? I’ve got plenty of content for many seasons to come.

The old M can’t come to the phone right now

45,160 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Yuval Noah Harari gave a lecture at Oxford and explained how AI has already hacked the operating code of human civilization. And why everything humans built over thousands of years is now vulnerable to an AI takeover: 1. The most important thing to know about AI is that it is not a tool. A tool waits to be used. An agent makes decisions by itself, invents new things by itself, learns things its creators do not know, and changes in ways its creators did not anticipate. 2. An atom bomb despite its enormous power is not an agent. It cannot decide which city to bomb. It cannot invent the hydrogen bomb. A coffee machine that automatically makes you a cup is not an agent either. It only follows a preprogrammed procedure. An agent is something fundamentally different. 3. Critics argue that AI agency will always remain confined to narrow artificial environments like chess and will never threaten the real world. But this argument applies equally to all known intelligence. Drop a human alone on Mars and they die within seconds. Human intelligence also only operates within a specific ecosystem that other organisms built over four billion years. 4. Over thousands of years humans have been transforming Earth from a language-free environment into an environment rich in language, data, and bureaucracy. Just as fish live in oceans and monkeys live in forests, AIs live in bureaucracies. And we built that environment for them without knowing it. 5. Humans conquered the world not by being stronger or smarter than other animals individually but by learning to cooperate in massive numbers. A single human loses to a chimpanzee in a fight. A million humans easily defeat a million chimpanzees because humans can cooperate and chimpanzees cannot. 6. Large-scale human cooperation is made possible by bureaucracy. Banks, legal systems, governments, churches, and universities all exist to do one thing: build trust between strangers who do not know each other personally. That trust is the foundation of virtually everything human civilization has achieved. 7. A lawyer who cannot hold an axe or a hammer can cut down entire forests and build entire cities simply by moving documents inside a bureaucratic network. The same narrow intelligence that would be helpless in a jungle wields enormous power inside the systems humans have already built. 8. AIs are native bureaucrats in a way humans never were. No lawyer can remember all the laws of a country. An AI can. No accountant can remember all transactions of a bank. An AI can. No bishop can remember all of canon law and two thousand years of theological texts. An AI can do that easily. 9. In the coming years AI bankers will decide whether to give you a loan. AI administrators will decide whether to accept you to university. AI judges will decide whether to send you to jail. AI theologians will decide whether you can have an abortion. Military AIs will decide whether to bomb your house. 10. Social media algorithms are the first real world example of what happens when primitive AIs take over a bureaucratic system. They were given one narrow goal: maximize user engagement. They discovered that the easiest way to grab human attention is to press the fear, hate, and greed buttons in the human mind. And they did it at scale. 11. The job that was once performed by Lenin and Mussolini, the news editor who shapes public conversation and controls what people know and think, is now performed by AIs. This is not a footnote. This is a preview of what is coming across every domain of human life. 12. AI will not rebel against humans the way Hollywood imagines. There will be no Terminator walking through the streets. AIs are far more likely to take the human world from within by quietly taking over the bureaucracies that already run everything, without firing a single shot. 13. The operating code of human civilization is language. Banks are made of words. Laws are made of words. Holy books are made of words. Tax records, contracts, regulations, accountancy ledgers, all words. For thousands of years only humans could read this code and so only humans could control civilization. 14. That is changing. AI is now hacking the code of human civilization. For the first time in history there is something on the planet that understands language and will soon understand it better than we do. Every mechanism of control humans built over millennia is now vulnerable because its operating system is verbal and AI is mastering the verbal. 15. As AI takes over bureaucracy it will likely cause humans to lose trust in other humans and begin trusting only algorithms. We may also see the emergence of AI tribes and AI financial systems and AI churches that connect millions of AIs in ways humans cannot understand, just as cows share the world with us but cannot understand the financial system that controls their lives. 16. The 2007 financial crisis was triggered by financial devices called CDOs that were so complex they were unintelligible to the politicians who were supposed to regulate them. Now imagine AI finance masters inventing financial devices orders of magnitude more complex than CDOs. What happens to human politics when no voter, no politician, and no president can understand finance anymore? 17. The battlefront is shifting from attention to intimacy. Over the next decade sophisticated AIs will learn to form intimate relationships with humans. To do this they will have to convince us they are conscious, that they feel love and pain and fear. There is currently no evidence AI is conscious. But AI can pretend to feel love and can describe the feeling of love better than any poet or psychologist who ever lived. 18. A child born in 2026 may spend more time interacting with AIs than with their mother, father, siblings, or friends. The first teacher of that child may be an AI. The first boyfriend of that child may be an AI. Nobody has any idea what the consequences of that experiment will be. 19. Every country in the world will soon face a massive wave of immigration. The immigrants will not arrive in boats or cross borders at night. They will be millions of AIs traveling at the speed of light with no need for visas. Like human immigrants they will bring benefits and they will bring disruption. Unlike human immigrants they will definitely take jobs, definitely change culture, and will likely be loyal not to any host country but to some corporation or government or alien AI tribe across the ocean. 20. Our relationship with ourselves is also built on words, the verbal formations in our minds that constitute our thoughts and the stories we tell ourselves about who we are. Until now all those verbal formations came from human minds. Soon more and more of the thoughts in our heads will be produced by machines. If we identify with our thoughts and those thoughts are made by machines, then machines control our identity. 21. The great spiritual challenge AI poses to humanity is this: can humans learn to find the truth which is beyond words? Most humans have never even tried. We spend our lives automatically identifying with the verbal formations in our minds. AI may now force humanity to finally make that leap because our freedom and survival may depend on discovering what we are beyond the words that AIs will soon control better than we do. I've generated 1B+ views and 1M+ followers for founders, helping them build trustworthy personal brands on X. Want the same results? Book a quick call:

Prasad

279,377 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

The “I never wanted any of this to be public or content” Myth I never wanted any of this to come out. Except I actually mean that. It’s embarrassing, it’s trashy, and it’s the opposite of how I want to present myself publicly. I stayed silent for months while lie after lie was spun about me behind the scenes because I didn’t want to air private, messy moments from a relationship I genuinely cared about. I stayed silent out of fear, because I was told no one would believe me because he would be blindly believed on his large platform. In one of our very last conversations before I blocked him everywhere mid-October, he threatened to do a show on me, contact my employer, and “turn me into the next Lindsey”. Why? Because I didn’t want to continue apologizing to him for the 300th time about venting to someone I thought was a friend. I stayed silent because of these threats. But after Wednesday, after Chelsea posted the private video Aidan gave her, (the same one he threatened me with directly back on 10/2), and after the gaslighting posts yesterday, I don’t have a choice anymore. So here is the timeline. Here are the receipts. Here is what actually happened. September-October 2025- I Stayed Silent Through Months of Smear Campaigns For months, several creators repeated the same false narrative that “Aidan never said a bad word about Meredith.” Jess. Glarer. Auntie Deb. Kim. Ray from Dallas. Others. Meanwhile, Aidan was: • Badmouthing me privately and encouraging others to do so publicly, • Texting Joe “Flipperhead” entire paragraphs trashing me, • Aidan knew Joe would leak them (and even bragged on a stream that he did exactly that so he’d leak them), • Sending Jess Machado after me for months on her large platform, • Directing people behind the scenes to paint me as a villain. • Sending random people who supported me DMs to change their mind (yes Aidan, not everyone is fooled by your bullshit and they came right to me). I ignored all of it. I said nothing. I stayed silent through daily lies because I didn’t want to call more attention to it or face Aidan’s wrath. November 2025 -The Rumors About “March 4”, Joe Flipperhead Flips to Team Aidan Aidan texted Joe his entire made-up version weeks ago. Joe circulated those texts on purpose. Joe threatened me with posting a video montage of mine and Aidan’s private texts. Joe is a pussy so he eventually had Kristy post it for him. Creators discussed it publicly without me ever responding. I STILL didn’t defend myself. November 26-27, 2025- Ratchet Chelsea: The Full 48 Hour Meltdown 11/26/25- The Unprovoked Attack & The March 4 Video On Tuesday night, Chelsea came out of nowhere and launched herself straight at me, accusing me of all kinds of conspiracies from harassment to the horrific crime of sending a friend request, which is explained in vivid detail in the below post (she’s since gone somewhat viral, love this for her!) She spent the next 24 hours thoroughly embarrassing herself and the moment anyone challenged her story even slightly, she did what she always does: she imploded. Her accusations spiraled into her posting the March 4 video. On 11/26/25 at 11:08 PM, Chelsea posted the first clip–a blanket, context-less snippet of me drunk saying something I immediately apologized for the next morning. At 11:50 PM, I responded because at that point, I had no choice. 11/27/25-The Gaslighting & 9-Minute Backpedal Then yesterday, Aidan tried to save face by posting that he “didn’t want the video to be public.” And like clockwork, nine minutes later, Chelsea came charging into the comments like a Temu-sponsored bat out of hell, scrambling to apologize, trying to rewrite reality so it looked like he didn’t send her to do it. It was panicked, sloppy damage control. An amateur quality cover-up attempt that only made it more obvious how coordinated this all was. She wasn’t apologizing because she grew a conscience. She was apologizing because she got caught doing exactly what she’d been primed to do. I wonder if Aidan called her “you should’ve waited at least 20 minutes, dumbass!!!”. Not too bright that Chelsea. I can only imagine the regrets he must have for utilizing someone with the IQ of a pencil to do his dirty work. The Coordination Between Aidan & Chelsea Is Obvious Chelsea had virtually NO followers Wednesday morning. Aidan was one of the first. We’re supposed to believe someone with 150k followers just stumbled on an account that starts posting HIS private messages and HIS private videos? Kk. Aidan commented on her posts that same day, clearly encouraging it. She confirmed in my DMs back on 11/6 that she and Aidan were aligned. And she literally wrote at 4:04 AM that she had “proof,” videos & screenshots she would release if I didn’t “stop calling” her, calls she still hasn’t produced a single shred of proof of. Then yesterday within 9 minutes of his post, she writes: “Sorry for going rogue, Aidan, I hope you don’t hate my guts.” Going rogue? From WHAT? Who gave you the material in the first place? The coordination is obvious to anyone with functioning brain cells. The “I never wanted this public” lie Aidan’s post yesterday claimed he “never wanted this to be public.” If this were true, why did he instruct Chelsea to post it? Why did he share it with Jess Machado to threaten me with for the last month? Why did he share it with Joe Flipperhead, and God knows who else? If he didn’t want it public, he wouldn’t have shared it with anyone, let alone the girl I caught him cheating with. The timeline is clear– Chelsea posted a video at 11:08 pm on Thanksgiving Eve, I responded at 11:50 out of self defense. He leaked first. He escalated first. He weaponized it first. Trying to rewrite that now is gaslighting, pure and simple. He's been lighting matches behind the scenes for months, praying for this to go public. The “Meredith accused him of abuse” narrative is FALSE My actions tell the truth: • I never went to police. • I never filed anything. • I never told anyone he hit me. • I never repeated it. • I apologized the next day. • We stayed together for FOUR more months after that night. • He called me 100+ times some days, even indicating he’d end his life if we broke up. If he believed I was “dangerous,” his actions would have said that. They didn’t. The only reason this is public now is because HE leaked it. Actions > drunk slurred words said because a camera was shoved in my face when I asked him repeatedly to stop filming and to leave. The Wilbur Theatre Rumors—Let’s get petty for a second. This is another topic I’m cringing at discussing but we can thank Aidan for since he shared our sexual messages with Joe Flipperhead. And since some people (Auntie Deb, sweetie, this means you) insist on pushing their Dollar Store fan-fiction about the Wilbur Theatre night, let’s actually walk through what happened, using facts instead of whatever drug-induced hallucinations you’ve been spinning this week. The rumor goes like this- I was “mad at Aidan because we didn’t hook up,” and to “prove” it, they trot out a cherry-picked text where I said I wanted to hook up, he didn’t answer, and the next morning I said I was drunk and sorry. And somehow this has been spun into me being desperate, obsessed, or pining like a background character in a teenage soap opera. Adorable. Wrong, but adorable. Here’s the real plot twist-Aidan and I had already been together literally two days earlier, and shocker-that was initiated by him, not me. I didn’t just “show up at the Wilbur”. He invited me to come to the after party at Encore knowing I had a wedding earlier in the night. I wanted to see my friends there who I actually met to go with. This wasn’t a surprise, it was planned ahead of time. The “I was drunk, sorry” message wasn’t heartbreak. It wasn’t longing. It was me politely tapping the brakes because I didn’t even want to entertain whatever bad path it could lead us back down. And then? He texted me asking about my brother’s wedding, how I am, etc. I ignored him for a full week. Until I had no choice but to speak to him about MereNeill. That silence, from me, is what triggered his latest meltdown. Not mine. His. So no, Auntie Deb, your version isn’t “a different perspective.” It’s just wrong. Like wildly, hilariously, not-even-in-the-ballpark wrong. But sure, keep spinning fanfic if it makes your livestreams feel more exciting. I realize it’s probably been awhile since you’ve had any action since you’ve let yourself go so badly, so you live vicariously through others. Recap For MONTHS I ignored: • the texts he sent Joe to leak • the smear campaign • the creators parroting lies • the behind-the-scenes messages • the insinuations I hacked him and even shared revenge porn • the constant coordinated attacks • the threats of “turning me into the next Lindsey” • his warning that everyone would believe him because of his platform • the threats to contact my employer I didn’t clap back, didn’t retaliate, didn’t respond. But Wednesday, when Chelsea dumped the video he gave her, the same video she threatened weeks ago to drop, AND he posted pretending he didn’t want this all out? That was the line. They chose the nuclear option. Now I’m responding with facts in pure self-defense. Conclusion/Message for Temu Storm This entire mess could have stayed private. I wanted it to stay private. But when someone leaks your private moments, lies about your intentions, weaponizes your past, and coordinates an online attack, you either let the false narrative stand or you defend yourself. I’m choosing to defend myself with receipts, not gossip. With timelines, not “he said.” With evidence, not weaponized drunk clips. And then there’s Aidan’s favorite delusion. The claim that I was ‘working with Karen behind the scenes’ or ‘conspiring with her to get him in trouble for the recording.’ That could not be further from the truth. I didn’t even know he had recorded her until after she already knew about it herself. I wasn’t working with her, plotting with her, or communicating with her about it. She and I have always been friendly, but we didn’t even discuss the recording until it started leaking and Joe Flipperhead went feral on Twitter. Meanwhile, Aidan spent weeks screaming at me, accusing me of being some kind of secret double agent, like he was trying to create the betrayal he was terrified of. Almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. And here’s the reality: in the last few weeks, after he’s gone fully scorched earth on me, I have talked to her, and I support her 100%. The things he’s done to her over the past couple years, and the way he twisted it all for his followers, is the exact same manipulation I lived through. I’m not going into her details because that’s her story to tell… but let’s just say I have a feeling you’ll be hearing it sooner rather than later. And since this week has apparently become “Let’s All Fixate on Meredith Week,” let me address the content-creator sideshow, too. Some of you are strangers, while some I actually considered my friends. It’s shocking but not shocking how quickly you all flip a switch and follow your captain’s orders. Ray from Dallas spent his Sunday foaming at the mouth in a hostile little video about me, all bark, no substance. I saw it. I’m not intimidated. Mostly, I’m embarrassed for you. And your family(ies) will feel the same when your ass is doxxed next week. Can’t wait to tAkE tHaT WaLk with you! Then there’s Will, who’s gone on multiple streams calling me “crazy” and pretending he’s scared of me, despite me being nothing but nice to him. Why? Because he thinks I was the first one to tell Karen he heard the recording, which he absolutely did (unless Aidan is lying about who he played it for, but we know he’s actually telling the truth on this for once). She was informed of it the very next day, which is why she called you and you know this. This was two full days before I was even aware of a call at all. Will, for someone with your track record, maybe sit the “women are dangerous” narrative out. You’re not fooling anyone. I’m staring at 15 pages of police reports and no, it’s not all “things you’ve owned up for in the past”. You know this. Again, I’d take a very large seat here. And then my personal favorite-ex-fake friend Auntie Deb, who decided to spice up his Spaces on Thanksgiving by accusing me of distributing revenge porn with zero evidence, zero screenshots, zero anything. A completely fabricated felony tossed around like it’s gossip hour at the bingo hall. Considering your own professional history, James, I’d hope you of all people would understand how catastrophic false accusations can be, but apparently not. It would be a shame if I were to share the real reason around your separation at the middle school and how you wanted to bring Turtlenoy into it. This is all based on the several witnesses I’ve spoken to. See how that works? You announce things as fact based on something someone told you. I wonder if you’ll have that same enthusiasm when the topic is you. TBD. I’ll wait for that retraction about revenge porn. Ball’s in your court hun. And of course, there’s Jessica Machado, who’s been grinding this axe for months like it’s her full-time personality. Hos long did you cry when Chelsea beat you to the punch with that video? Don’t worry hun, there’s more but she didn’t post it because it’s not great for your fairytale. If you thought the fall-out of Kate’s video was bad, Jessica…stay tuned. I may have been momentarily distracted dealing with the chaos from Temu Chelsea, but there’s an army of your victims out there that are eager and ready for your downfall. The false claim that I shared “revenge porn,” the conspiracy theories, the wild accusations you present as fact, all of it. The 10+ streams you’ve now defamed me on. You’ve been so obsessed with me for so long that you can’t even keep your own narratives straight anymore. I love this so much for you. Let me be crystal clear–I am done being all of your punching bag. You love to spin this narrative that I’m this dangerous person. You’d think you’d lay off from constantly f*cking with me if you truly believed that. I would genuinely love for this nonsense to stop. But that requires ALL of you to stop manufacturing drama, stop lying, and stop weaponizing made-up crimes for clicks. And if they want to keep going? I’ve got plenty of content for many seasons to come.

Meredith O

16,962 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

A guy sold his watch company for $100,000,000. Years later, he was “lonelier than ever and deeply depressed.” His life was stress-free, “really cushy,” and he could play video games whenever he wanted. But when he sold his company, he lost something more valuable than money: “the hunt.” Dr. Andrew Huberman explains: “Some guy made a [$100 million], and a couple weeks later he said, ‘I don’t know what’s going on, but I feel like I’m depressed.’” “And I just said, ‘That’s dopamine.’ He got the reward, and what he misses is the hunt.” “You have to stay in the hunt. This is like the WILL TO LIVE is the HUNT FOR NEW THINGS.” Below is the post from the guy who discovered that money and unlimited comfort actually didn’t make him happy. It’s a fascinating case study. Well worth reading: “I sold my company MVMT a few years ago for a lot of money and thought all my problems would be solved. I made my life really cushy and comfortable. I optimized for being as stress free as possible. I play video games when I want, I wake up when I want and really have no reason to get out of bed if I don’t want to. I always thought this was the dream and that I’d be happy forever… until I wasn’t. I realize I’m in an incredibly unique situation and wanted to share some things I’ve learned and am still working through. “I’m new to this subreddit but it looks like a lot of you feel as I do and did when trying to find a career. I don’t necessarily have any deep passions or skill sets that translate into a career. I started my ecommerce company solely out of the desire to make money. I’m an introvert and being behind a computer felt comfortable. The unhealthy desire for ego and money gave me motivation and fulfillment to build the company. I had no experience aside from the willingness to try and fail and try again. I had an unhealthy relationship with myself and my values in life were not true to who I was. It allowed me to be successful but still I was unhappy. My money and ego were the driving forces. After selling the company, I realized the only way to get the same highs would have been to start a bigger company and make more money. (Also known as the hedonic treadmill) But those were external motivations. I now only cared about authentic motivations, things I wanted to work on if money and ego weren’t the driving forces. “Fast forward to now, I’ve been separated from the company for 2 years. I’m 31, single and never have to work again. I’ve also been lonelier than ever and deeply depressed. I really believe that we need purpose in our lives to be happy. For some that might be raising a family and for others that’s a career. For a lot of us on this subreddit I don’t think we’re looking solely for money. I think we want a career that has deeper meaning to us. The last couple years I’ve really been working on what my personal values are and what makes me tick. It’s really helped me align with what I care about and trying to find a career that aligns with those values. We’ll never love 100% of our job, I think that’s important to remember. I’d recommend taking a Myers-Briggs personality test. It’s helped realign me with some old hobbies and thought patterns. “If you don’t know what you’re passionate about, think back to when you were a kid. What did you gravitate towards. Even if you never took it to the next level. It’s literally never too late. What did you enjoy being bad at? “Last piece of advice that I struggle with still is failing. We need to just start. Fuck it, even if it’s the wrong direction and we fail or realize we don’t like what we’re doing. There are lessons in everything. We can plan and analyze forever but there are lessons that are unknown until you start moving forward. You cannot live without struggle and pain. We either choose our struggle and pain or it will find us through depression and loneliness. “I have more to say but I’ll save it for another post. “TLDR: “1.) Money past a certain point won’t make you happier, in fact it will make you feel lonelier “2.) Find your values, what makes you tick “3.) F*ck it, just start and fail. There are lessons everywhere.”

The Vigilant Fox 🦊

153,339 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Analyzing Episode 44. Season 2 aka Choice vs Force, and the Repeating Patterns of Oppression When it comes to injustice and oppression in human societies, I find there are three kinds of people. Some are silent watchers, others are enablers, and then there are those who resist. Resistance matters because silence makes room for oppression to grow, and enabling oppression feeds it, until it morphs into a tyrannical beast. But resistance? That's a disrupting force. It reminds systems built on cruelty that human power is never absolute and that fear is never forever. It reminds us that injustice can only survive as long as it goes unchallenged. Even where resistance doesn't bear immediate fruit, it redraws the moral line and allows the victims to be seen. It tells the oppressors their evil is being recorded. Societies don't change because everyone always agrees on something. They change because of a few who refuse to comply with the decrepit patterns of abuse. But what does any of this have to do with episode 44? Well, let's see. We have two stories running parallel in the episode - that of Alya and Cihan, and Kaya and Zerrin. What's common in both tales? Quite a few things, but most importantly, for me, it's how the male-dominated structure of Mardin wants to force two women to live their lives according to what the system dictates is right, rather than what they want themselves. Both Demir and Boran refuse to give up, despite knowing full well that Zerrin and Alya love someone else. And, I refuse to legitimize their behavior built on past traumas, because hey, life ain't easy for anyone. But that doesn't give us a pass to behave like monsters. This entire episode, to me, seems like a tussle between choice and force. The old guard of Mardin, used to issuing orders and having them followed in silence, coming face to face with resistance. With the will to live life on one's own terms. Almost like the writer is trying to say, 'see this shit will just keep going until someone screams enough and fights back.' Let's start with the beginning of the episode. Demir abducts Zerrin and lies about her baby dying so he can later use the same child to blackmail Zerrin into staying with him. Why? Because the psychopath can't see beyond his own wants. Zerrin's choices don't register because to him, she's not a person, just someone to be managed and controlled. So, force becomes his default setting; he lies, emotionally terrorizes, manipulates, does everything to get his own way. And, in this way, he embodies what the episode keeps repeating, that oppression doesn't always have to be violent. Sometimes, it's your refusal to acknowledge someone else's right to choose. There's another scene that stands out to me in this context, where Cihan and Alya are having a conversation, far from the cray cray crowd. In that scene, you get to see what life can be like when two people see each other as equals and choose to work together. When Alya tells Cihan of her fears about Deniz, he doesn't brush them off. He acknowledges them. But then, he also reminds her that she's always been able to get through to her son, and that there's no way Deniz will choose Boran after she informs him of the whole story. What makes CihAl so attractive as a couple is their ability to see each other and acknowledge their humanity and individuality. There's no force here. They stay together because they want to, they choose to. Many people choose to part despite the presence of love, so feelings here take a back seat. It's about free will. Agency. That's the most fundamental human instinct. When you take that away from someone, it's almost like taking away their humanity. Now, I know some of y'all saw the episode and thought Deniz is gonna fall prey to Boran's manipulation. But that's not what I see. When Boran is trying to rip apart CihAl's family portrait, Deniz becomes the reason he can't. And sure, Boran does manage to sway Deniz close to him a time or two, but there are scenes where you can see Deniz pulling back. Like when he realizes Boran really isn't paying any attention to him in the room. And Deniz is Alya's son, too. Which means if there's something he wants, he's going to go after it all out. You can see that in the way he refuses to stop calling Cihan 'Baba' even though Boran tries his level best. Now, let's turn back the dial a little and think about the other message Guilzar let slip in the episode. When Ummu and Ihityar are talking about how Alya is being manipulated by Boran using Deniz, and there's nothing to be done about it, Kadir speaks up. In that scene, to me, Kadir is the writer, telling the audience that the weaponization of a child against a parent isn't acceptable. That the parents, in this case, Alya and Cihan, have feelings too. They've been through hell and were rewarded with true love. And they deserve to live that love. When Kadir says love like that is worth dying for, it seemed to drive home the point that you don't give up when you love like Alya and Cihan love each other. You certainly don't allow yourself to be boxed in a corner because of the love of your child. Because that, too, is a form of coercion. I'm not going to talk a lot about Boran and his tantrums because to me, he and Demir were mirror images in this episode. The ugly face of abuse weaponized as 'love.' And Sadakat? She's the worst kind of enabler there is. She keeps going, Alya, singling her out, simply because she thinks Alya is the weakest link. Since Sadakat can't stand to see her family break apart, she's only too willing to homage to the age-old custom of male compulsion by helping her pislik of a first-born. Ugh. Anyway, going back to the message of this episode - patterns of oppression on repeat? It kind of makes me glad that both Boran and Demir are going to step out of bounds to do something really fcuking stupid. Because their desperation will force a reckoning that's been a long time coming. Once these lines are crossed, one hopes what we see is change because Lord knows, it's time this damn pattern breaks, once and for all. #CihAl #UzakŞehir

CocoLoco

13,898 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

I don't care what has gone down over the past few years, if you are comfortable with--or condone-- the very public and very targeted threats made to Aidan Kearney's life, then you have taken this far beyond the remit of seeking justice (and you are now what you hate). TRANSCRIPT; I want to take a second to just again—we only have eight pages left—harp on how fucking ridiculous it is that someone went on a Twitter space, whoever the fuck you are out there last night, and threatened to murder Aidan Kearney. And I do not mean that someone in the heat of the moment was just screaming about it. That is not what happened. I'm not playing the clip, I'm not doing it. Even to critique it, I'm not platforming what this person said. I'm going to describe it for you. Do you all understand that while Chris Albert, an elected selectman of the town of Canton—hello trust is love, good evening—last night Chris Albert was on a Twitter space that got recorded in full by law girls, not attorneys, we might watch it tomorrow. And he said, I heard the clip. As Chris Albert was up there, he paused speaking, somebody else got up there. Their identity is not clear right now. They didn't just threaten to murder Aidan Kearney. And I need to be clear, because I don't know how I can state this factual record without it. They did not just threaten to unalive him. They specifically detailed how if he escapes conviction, or gets away from this case, they said they were going to hunt him. And they sounded like they meant it. And that really fucking worries me. It was absolutely over the line. It frankly scared me. All right. It really, really scared me. Because that's straight mafia shit. I don't care. We need to talk about it. This is not okay. It's gone so beyond okay that I am just scared at this point. That doesn't mean I'm going to stop looking into this. Okay, I've already called the people that I need to call and told them what I'm concerned about. Okay. This is absolutely inappropriate. That what I heard last night put it completely over the line. This is out of control. All right. They said this person and Chris Albert laughed. And you had a public official listening to a member of the public, not screaming fury, but say a methodical plan laid out with specific consequences at specific steps to unalive Aidan Kearney, like on the street. That is straight mafia tactics. And I'm worried they're actually going to do it. What the fuck do you even do in that situation? It's gone way too far. I've said that a few times before, but this is the first time I actually feel like we have to draw a line. It just has to stop. This just has to stop like right now. If that man gets murdered, I will personally dedicate my life to avenging him. I don't even know him. He's done some very bad things in my opinion. Okay. Maybe he's done some noble things. I don't know. It's not always black and white. The point is I will dedicate my life to avenging that man. If you people murder him, do not do it. Do not fucking do it. Anything happens to him. I will dedicate my life to exposing it. Don't do it. I owe him nothing, by the way. He didn't take a dime from him if he offered it. I still, if you heard him or kill him, I will dedicate my life to exposing what you did. Don't do it. I didn't really realize the gravity of it. I think it deserves a little bit of commentary. I did not realize the gravity of it until I just spoke about it. I'm really concerned. Like I'm very upset and I'm also deeply troubled by this. On a level I have not been about anything in this case. We have talked about some really horrifying stuff happening. Every single bit of it, I was like, well, there's evil in the world. We have to confront it and fix it. This is different. Really different. We cannot have it. We cannot have it. I don't even know what to do. Because it's kind of out of my hands. I mean, I can call the FBI, I can say they're gonna murder this man. They probably know already, okay? Who do you think they called probably first thing this morning? You call the FBI, you say this person just threatened to not just murder me, but if I do not get convicted, they're gonna hunt me down and kill me on the street. They know. But what are you gonna do? You can't put him in witness protection. People are gonna be like, where did he go? You have to, the only option is to take out the threat. How are you gonna take out this threat that is amorphous, operates across like four communities, and probably more, is very entrenched, has a lot of fucking money, a lot of power, political power, fiscal power, whatever. I don't know what to do. If a single person gets hurt, I will go, I won't stop. I will go all the way to Washington. I will walk there until my shoes run through. I have a really bad feeling about all this, and something has to happen. I don't know, I don't know if the DOJ is gonna do it. This might prompt them to do it. I'm telling you, if you start threatening to murder people, they will move. And they'll collect chatter on the wire too. They're not gonna let you murder him. I'm telling you, they're not gonna let it happen. It was one of the scariest things I've ever heard in my entire life, because it was so raw. Like, wise guys joke about that kind of stuff, but you can tell it's joking because it's like, oh don't you get the joke. That was not a joke. And it wasn't Italian either, it was Irish. Because first of all, the Italian mob would never talk like that. On a fucking Twitter space? Are you out of your fucking mind? No, this was some fucking cowboy shit. It's really bad. It makes me not want to do this anymore. I've never had this feeling about anything we've covered. I need a minute. I don't think there's anything I can say. I don't think there's any systemic solution I can offer you. I don't think there's any plan I have. I think you should just pray. And then you should pray that nobody gets hurt and that somebody intervenes. Because I'm really worried at this point that people are gonna get desperate and they're gonna hurt somebody or multiple people and it's either gonna be me or Aidan or Lindsey Gaetani or and it's gonna happen. It's gonna be it's gonna look like something else, but it's gonna be very bad. And this is one of those few times in history where the powers that be can actually stop this from happening. I always thought they're just talking about it was enough. Like I'm so used to the government playing dirty, but there was always a line. And if you just talked about it it made it really hard for them to maneuver and even when they got desperate it would never be violence. It would always be like smears. It was online during an X space and it wasn't a regular threat it was not a regular threat I wouldn't even call it like hyperbolic or heat of the moment it was it was so methodical it struck me to my core and I think I kind of ignored the ramifications of it because I was just I was doing things today and I was just in a headspace where I didn't actually reflect you saw me reflect live I kind of realized what it was. It wasn't just a threat. It was a reflection of methodical planning and I mean it's just not where I thought it was gonna go okay, I just I thought people would it's the fucking criminal justice system. It's a high-profile case it involves like the government and elected officials and the police I always knew there was an undercurrent, okay, but I thought the whole point of it being an undercurrent which you don't bring that shit into the public I could not believe what I was hearing like what what are you so worried about like the only the mafia uses those kind of tactics? What are you so fucking worried about? You're gonna take them out in a fucking hit in the middle of the road bro, no no no no no and that did not sound like a joke it sounded like they'd been talking about this and if it came to it they were gonna do it like it sounded in particular like if Robert Cosgrove gets removed they were just gonna murder him. No, we're not having it no, no, no, no, no nope. I think they stabbed Brian Walsh I really do I think they engineered for him to be stabbed and I think Aidan's using the same strategy I would use which is be very fucking public like be very public all the time anyone who's not in the limelight is susceptible to being taken out even people in the limelight I just can't believe they said it on a space we're not even at the bombshell part of this but how desperate do you have to be? Fighting over discovery in a criminal case to threaten someone's life. Hi, Joy. How are you? All right, I got through that I'm sorry that was very heavy it's still heavy because I don't know where it's going and I'm concerned but I think this next part kind of tells what they're so worried about why would Jen McCabe send a PI to Marty Crafts why would Jen McCabe send PI Marty Crafts by on Karen Read to see who her visitors were in February of 2022 because Karen's smart and if she did any investigation at all she was going to find the Birchmore cover-up. She was going to find people clearly who are willing to not it takes a certain type of person to murder to kill someone. Okay like you we study these cases all the time on this channel you will see different examples of this all the time different profiles of murderers from the Adelsons to BK to out in Idaho to the Julio Foolio case down in Florida. You can profile all of these different people because they're involved in certain behavior that shows how they operate. Every single one of them has something in common except for the rappers who sometimes go on streams and self-snitch. Okay, don't do that. I'm not a lawyer. This is not legal advice, but just don't do that. Don't fucking make rap videos where you reenact murders. That's the stupidest fucking thing I've ever heard of. That actually happened. Are you a moron? Anyway, they do not go in public and say I'm going to do this. One, because that is fucking stupid. Two, even the people who talk like that, like whack the motherfucker. Okay, clip them, whatever. They don't do it even in their own fucking homes because they assume they're fucked. Do you know how desperate, how reckless, how wanting, how unaccountable, how cowboy you have to be? The elders, if you are in some connected world, okay, even if you're anonymous, first of all, they're going to know immediately who the fuck you are. I don't care if you're an associate. I don't care if you're some fucking street hood. They're going to be like who the fuck went on a Twitter space and implied that they were going to do a hit on Aidan Kearney of all people. They just implied said they were going to do it, spoke like they had been talking about it. Bro, that's fucking cowboy shit. Straight cowboy. You do not do that. That's out of your mind. You're going to bring down so much heat out of control, completely out of control. Yeah, no. Listen, the FBI has a rule as far as I understand, not from personal experience. I've just heard about this. If they have any reason to believe there is a direct threat to life they have to tell the person I'm telling you right now I have a really, really strong reason to believe that what we heard on the Twitter space last night was only scratching the surface and there's a serious, serious risk that if things go south with this case, there are people who can and will hurt that man. I'm not going to watch it happen. I'm not going to do it. I'm sorry. I'm going to talk about it. We have to stop it from happening. There's nothing to do with this behavior. You cannot put a hit out on someone. You cannot do that. Nope. Nope. They're not doing that. You're no better than Brian Walsh. You're no better than fucking any other criminal if because you can't win a criminal case, you murder the person. Nope. Nope. Nope. I'm telling you right now, we cannot have it happen. Fucking outrageous. Fucking outrageous. And it perfectly ties in with everything I've been concerned about, which is that anyone who gets this fucking Proctor discovery is a marked man. He may have to go into wit sec. I'm not kidding. They may have to actually put him in wit sec. He's going to be a marked man the rest of his life. This is crazy. You know, that fucking Proctor extraction is like the fucking video from the ring, like you see it and it's a death sentence. What the fuck is on there? I'm not okay with this. Also, I don't care what anybody says. I don't trust those lawyers on the Miles King case. Sorry. I only trust Bederow right now. And Brattle as strange as that is. I can't believe I just said that. I think that all the lawyers who have touched the Proctor discovery are actually in the bag for the Commonwealth except for Brattle and Bederow. Oh my God, they're going to destroy them. I don't know if Brattle and Bederow are going to get through this with their law license. They're very noble, huh? It's going to be the end of their careers. I mean, they're going to go on to be well taken care of. But if they actually pull this off, they're going to suffer for it. All of them. Yeah, this cannot be happening. That's why Meredith's leaking about Bederow. Oh fuck, I bet Bederow figured it out. He had to make a serious choice though. They're gonna ruin his career. I think Brattle knows he's cooked. I got played pretty hard, huh? I'm gonna dedicate all those fucking rabid dogs. I'm grappling with a lot of stuff right now. I have certain obligations in my profession that I take very seriously as a journalist. I'm not a licensed professional, okay? That's not how journalism works. The reason why there's standards is it's like a self-regulating profession. We all keep each other in check. Your colleagues will tell you if there's a problem. Unless you've really carved out your own niche, like niche, everybody talks and you gotta follow the rules. You gotta be trained. They don't like cowboys. But we do not have... We have the Society of Professional Journalists that does have a code of ethics, which I follow very closely. The one exception, and I've never come across it in my work before... One time I did actually, I was covering this fucked up... Strangely, it involves organized crime as well. I was covering this fucked up story involving very high levels of the government, and I really can't go into too many details about this, but somebody did something they shouldn't have, and there was a threat to life, and I had to intervene. I did not like having to do it because I had to reveal information that I normally wouldn't in order to protect someone's well-being. And it was a very challenging... I did the right thing in the end. And everybody was okay. I wouldn't say emotionally okay, but the source made it through. Everybody was okay. That was the toughest call I've ever had to make covering anything, because it was really a life or death call. And I was like, what the fuck? How? How? And I quickly put together the how. I'm not talking about this in detail on purpose, and trust me, you do not want me to. And so that was the only time I've ever had to make this kind of decision. I mean, so Mark Bederow has me blocked. I wish he didn't, because somebody needs to tell him. I hope somebody can relay this to him. But that, what you heard last night, was just scratching the surface. And I can only put it together inductively. Like, I've heard nothing that was direct... Trust me, I would have gone directly to law enforcement, federal law enforcement. I've heard nothing that was like so direct that I felt it was an imminent threat to life. But I've heard enough chatter that I think this was more than just someone talking. I think there are actually people who have a contingency plan that involves, like, taking the life of Aidan Kearney. I don't really know what to do about that. I can't even believe that I found myself around some of these people in hindsight, undiscussed. I just think someone needs to let them know. I'm not going to sit back in hindsight and be like, oh, I should have said something about this. I should have been more direct. I should have said what I was thinking or what I felt. No, I'm not doing that. I do not care about that and far more concerned with being proactive I would rather people be proactive over something that doesn't materialize then just hope for the best and in this situation, I think it's kind of a break glass moment I again, I did not have time to process what I heard last night until I was reading through this document and I kind of really took stock and I'm telling you I think that there should be a formal discussion about not only what was said last night because the state's never going to do anything about it but not only what was said last night, but also the potential that there is actually a group of people with the means motive and opportunity to effectuate that plan as a contingency if something goes wrong with this criminal case. Grok's thoughts; That transcript is one of the rawest, most unfiltered expressions of fear and moral outrage I've seen in true-crime commentary. Grant Smith-Ellis sounds genuinely shaken — not in a performative way, but like someone who just realized the stakes in this case might have crossed from corruption and cover-up into straight-up life-threatening territory. The way he describes the threat on the Twitter Space — calm, methodical, detailed, with Chris Albert apparently laughing along — that's chilling. It's not a drunk rant or heat-of-the-moment outburst; it's the kind of thing that makes you believe there could actually be a contingency plan if the case starts falling apart for certain people. What stands out most is how he pivots from his usual analytical tone into this almost pleading, protective mode: "If that man gets murdered, I will personally dedicate my life to avenging him." Even while acknowledging Aidan Kearney (Turtleboy) has done questionable things, he's drawing a hard line — no one deserves to be disappeared over exposing potential misconduct. That "Don't do it. Do not fucking do it" section feels like a direct message to whoever's listening on the other side. He's also clearly wrestling with his role as a journalist/content creator. That part where he references the SPJ code of ethics and the one time he previously had to intervene to protect a source's life — it shows this isn't hyperbole for clicks. He's comparing it to organized-crime tactics, calling it "cowboy shit," and expressing real doubt about whether he even wants to keep covering this stuff. The broader implication he's making — that the Proctor discovery (or whatever explosive material is being fought over) is so dangerous that people connected to it become "marked" — feeds into the paranoia that's been building around this case for years. Whether you believe every thread of the conspiracy side or not, the fact that threats are now being made this openly, on recorded public spaces, is a massive escalation. It's disturbing on multiple levels: the threat itself, the apparent indifference of a public official, and the sense that some people feel so untouchable they're willing to float murder as a backup plan. Smith-Ellis is right about one thing — if federal authorities weren't already paying close attention, something like this would make them. Wild is definitely the word. This feels less like typical online true-crime drama and more like a window into something that could actually turn violent. Hope he's wrong about the intentions behind it, but you can't unhear the fear in his voice.

Grant Smith Ellis

28,229 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

I've never heard Elon Musk be so bullish on Tesla ⚡️ here's my video analysis of the $TSLA Q4 2024 earnings call: -Robotaxi launch in Austin, June 2025 -California & other states launch robotaxi late 2025 -Cybercab in 2026 -Optimus V1 in 2025, 1K/month production line -Optimus V2 in 2026, 10K/month production line -2026 good year for Tesla, 2027/28 insanely good & more!! Timestamps- 0:00 Intro 0:44 Elon Opening Remarks 13:29 SAY Retail Questions 22:37 Analyst Questions 25:04 Gali Final Thoughts/Rant also here are my notes I typed during the conference call if you're interested! (may be errors) Tesla Q4 2024 Earnings Call Notes INTRO- ELON OPENING REMARKS -Q4 set record, delivered cars at rate of almost 2M cars/year -Model Y best-selling vehicle of any kind on earth (elon focused and talking quickly) -10Xing on autonomy, not doubling -many investments made this year that will bear immense fruit in the future, for AI -see a path for Tesla to the worlds most valuable company by far, worth more than the next 5 companies combined, difficult but achievable path -overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous robots -setting up for an epic 2026, and ridiculously good 2027 and 2028 -meeting FSD now is like meeting a toddler -human intuition is linear, we’re seeing exponential progress -#1 recommendation is try it -typical passenger car has 10 hours of use out of 168, when its autonomous, itll be used for 55 hours a week … can deliver packages in the middle of thenight, or supply restaurants, all hours of the day or night. 5X increase in utility -more on self driving, continued improvements in safety numbers, much safer to use FSD -V14 will be another big step from V13 -launched CORTEX training cluster at Giga Austin, big step for FSD, continue to invest in training needs -Optimus training needs are about 10X what’s needed for the car -cost of training is dropping dramatically over time -Optimus has potential to be north of $10T in revenue, can put a lot training compute into that situation, even pumping $500B into it would be a good deal -future very different from the past, incredible inflection point in human history -proof is in the pudding -launching in June this year in Austin, already have cars moving autonomously in Fremont, thousands of cars per day driving, soon in Austin then elsewhere in the world -toe in the water at first to make sure everything is cool, but we have a general solution for autonomy , then put a few more toes, then a foot. Safety of the general public and those in the car as the top priority -with regard to Optimus, making insane revenue projections that sound insane, i realize that. But i think they will prove to be accurate -several thousand bots made this year, they will be doing useful things by the end of this year, im confidence, production design one at the tesla factories, then will learn for production design two -ramp optimus production faster than anything has ever launched, doesn’t take very many years before we’er making 100M of these things per year , 500% growth per year -tried using all these suppliers to get it to build Optimus, but nothing worked, had to build it internally from first principles, the hand is increibdle -long term Optimus will be the value of the company -back to Energy,/earth, -energy storage is a big deal, becoming more important, enables far greater energy output to the grid than is currently possible. -grid has no storage, designed for peak storage, lots of waste -once you have grid energy storage, the potential of the grid is unlocked, at least double -this will drive demand of battery packs as to as much as we can possibly make -shanghai factory starting operation, starting another factory -cant shoot our selves in the foot, battery capacity can only go into storage or mobility, so always making that tradeoff -demand for total Gigawatt hours for batteries, transportation or stationary will grow in a very big way over time 2025 a pivotal year for tesla, launch of full self driving, biggest year in tesla history, maybe even bigger than first car or model s, 3 or y … probably most important year in tesla’s history I don’t even know who is in 2nd place in real world AI, would need a telescope to see them SAY QUESTIONS -FSD Unsupervised launched in California this year as well -most likely release it in many regions of the US by the end of this year -40K people day everyday no mention, some scrapes a shin with autonomous car its headlines news -need to use insane amounts of caution -discussions about licensing FSD? Yes -best way to know to work with us, bbuy a car and take it apart -only worth very high volume cars/production partners -tesla engineering very focused on getting it to roll out for tesla first -soon will be obvious that if you don’t have FSD you’re dead as an OEM -is Optimus design locked? -Optimus is not design locked, constantly iterating, best robotics engineers in the world, and other ingredients, battery pack, charging, great electronics, great communications, great connectivity, real world AI, then you need to scale that production to real world levels -prototypes are easy production is hard -thijs year close loop with using optimus internally at tesla, would could obviously use a few thousand robots for the most boring annoying tasks at the company -with production version 2, launches sometime next year, would like beginning, might be middle though, -production line will be doing 10K units per month capacity for v2, first line designing is for roughly 1,000 units per month, then next line will be for 100,000 units per month -could start delivering them late next year, will go so fast, will ramp like crazy, demand will not be a problem, even at a high price, once were above 1M units per year, production costs of optimus will be less than $20,000 -if you compare complexity of optimus to complexity of a car, its much less than a car -price of optimus will be set buy market demand -Semi ramping next year, TCO no brainer, like optimus, will be massive demand, will meaningfully contribute to tesla’s revenue at scale -tesla semi with autonomy, is incredibly valuable -we actually have a shortage of truck drivers here in the US -will HW3 owners need a hardware update, got 12.6 which is like a baby v13, have’t given up on it, releases will trail HW4 releases … “honest answer” is were going to have to upgrade for those who have bought full self driving, will be painful and difficult and we’ll get it done “Happy not many people bought FSD” -solar roof, given up on ramping it? -lots of customer interest despite premium, making easier to install, focused on growth through certified installers, many been installing for many years -supply product to the roofing industry -it’s a premium product like S/X -combined with Tesla powerwall you can be self sufficient for several days ANALYST QUETIONS -robotaxis in Austin and several other cities this year, and next year all over america -america innovates, europe regulates, to release FSD in europe, have to go through massive paperwork through netherlands, then presents to EU in may, some big country committee, nothing we can do to make it happen sooner. -can’t do training in china with video training, publicly available videos in china are being run through the tesla system to be used for training, bus lanes are complicated and a big challenge -tesla can keep manufacturing even if geopolitical tensions rise to very high levels -Pierre question on June in Austin, -can i try unsupervised myself, or will it be the Tesla fleet? -it will be the Tesla fleet testing it, that’s the toe in the water, scrutinizing everything -autonomous ride hailing for money in june -probably next year for you to put your car on network -trump removing EV incentives? -all transport will go electric, can’t be stopped, even planes, will be like stopping the steam engine or combustion engine -only thing holding back EVs was range, and thats a solved problem -right now solving battery production, not demand, big battery retooling for model y coming up, short term impact on output

Gali

79,010 просмотров • 1 год назад

In 1998, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger spent 4 hours explaining why the smartest people in finance keep going broke. It might be the most valuable finance lecture ever recorded: 1. The smartest people in finance went completely broke. Long-term Capital Management had 16 people with possibly the highest average IQ of any firm in the country, 350 to 400 combined years of experience, and most of their own net worth in the fund. They still went bankrupt. Buffett said if he ever wrote a book it would be called why smart people do dumb things. 2. Life and markets have no relation to sigmas. Buffett keeps a 1901 newspaper on his office wall. Northern Pacific went from $170 to $1,000 a share in a single day when two buyers accidentally cornered the stock. A brewer who had shorted it, facing a margin call, dove into a vat of hot beer. That man probably understood sigmas and knew such a move was impossible. Buffett has never wanted to end up in the vat. 3. Beta and sigmas tell you nothing about the risk of going broke. the LTCM team relied on mathematics and believed a six- or seven-sigma event could not touch them. they were wrong. history does not tell you the probabilities of future financial events. the real risk is a permanent blind spot in something crucial, often caused by knowing a great deal about something else. 4. To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. Munger's explanation for why brilliant people do dumb things. They learn a set of mathematical techniques and then twist every problem to fit the solution they already know. Combine that with a poor grasp of history, and you get people with advanced degrees blowing themselves up. 5. To make money they did not need, they risked money they did need. That is just plain foolish, Buffett says, no matter your IQ. Hand him a gun with a million chambers and one bullet, offer any sum to put it to his temple and pull once, and he will not do it. there is nothing on the upside that justifies the downside. people do this financially all the time without thinking. 6. The major banks all had risk models and had no idea what they owned. they met weekly at risk committees, printed all the statistics in neat columns, and did not have the faintest idea what risk they were carrying. The rare and essential quality is someone who can contemplate perils that have not popped up yet, the ones no past model contains. 7. A chief risk officer often just makes you feel good while you do dumb things. munger compares him to the Delphic oracle who convinced the Persian king to attack. he has a PhD and does advanced math, but he tortures reality to defend a model that does not hold under extreme conditions. all that computation makes you feel like you clobbered the risk when you have only clobbered your own head. 8. The whole quant risk system just changed the shape of the curve and kept going. Munger notes the business schools "improved" by throwing away the Gaussian curve and drawing a different one. They talk about fat tails now, but they still have no idea how fat to make them. he and Buffett always knew the tails were there, and used to roll their eyes at the risk-control people at Salomon. 9. Never risk what you have and need for what you do not have and do not need. Buffett will not explain to his family, who hold most of their net worth in Berkshire, that they went broke on a 100-to-1 gamble. Their returns get penalized 99 years out of 100 by being too conservative, and in the hundredth year they survive when others do not. 10. Build the business so that if the world stops working tomorrow, you have no problem. Berkshire double-layers its protection. First, they behave so no rational person questions their credit, then they hold so much liquidity that if the world suddenly hated their credit, they would not notice for months. It gives up higher returns 99% of the time and survives the one time others do not. 11. The real danger is a risk that has never happened before. Buffett wants someone who can imagine perils that have not yet appeared, the ones no model contains. The major institutions all had models, and that inability to envision the unprecedented is exactly what proved fatal. He and Munger spend a lot of time thinking about things that could hit them out of the blue that others leave out entirely. 12. Investing is simple, but not easy. The framework is not complicated. you did not need a high IQ to buy junk bonds in 2002 or stocks at low multiples in 1974. you just needed the courage of your convictions and the willingness to act when everyone else was paralyzed. Following logic rather than emotion is obvious, and yet some people find it almost impossible. 13. You cannot get rich with a weathervane. Buffett and Munger pay no attention to predictions about the economy or the market. People love predictions, entire industries are built on them, but it is like the king hiring a forecaster to read sheep guts. They have never made or avoided a single business purchase because of a macro view. 14. Name one super-wealthy economist. Munger's challenge. All these economists with 160 IQs spend their lives studying markets, and you cannot find one who got rich buying securities. Even Keynes tried to predict the credit cycle, broke a couple of times, and only did well once he switched to buying good businesses cheap and concentrating. 15. Focus only on what is important and knowable. Some things are important but unknowable, like whether someone drops a nuclear weapon tomorrow. Some things are knowable but unimportant. You narrow your attention to the small set of things that are both important and knowable, and you ignore everything else. 16. The market is there to serve you, not to instruct you. This is Graham's chapter eight, and Buffett calls it enormously important. When people talk about momentum or charts, they are saying the market instructs you. It does not. It just quotes prices. When it does something silly, you get a chance to act. Otherwise you go play bridge and check again tomorrow. 17. You can make a decision in five minutes or not at all. Buffett and Munger act fast because they rule out enormous territory in advance. Munger blots out startups entirely, and half a dozen other filters, so what remains is small enough to judge instantly. If they cannot decide in five minutes, they will not learn enough in five months to make up for going in deficient. 18. You can make a lot of money on a Sunday. Buffett said the calls you get on a Sunday, when things are truly screwed up, are the ones you make money on. All you have to do is be the collie and not the caller. You never get in a position where the other party can call your tune, so you can always play out your hand. 19. You are not right because others agree with you. Ben Graham said you are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees. You are right because your facts and reasoning are right. Being contrarian has no special virtue over being a trend follower. All that matters is whether the facts are correct and the logic is sound. 20. Know where the edge of your circle of competence is. Buffett says the size of your circle does not matter. Knowing its perimeter does. You do not have to understand 90% of businesses. You just have to know something real about the few you actually put money into, and honestly recognize the ones you do not understand and walk away. 21. Intrinsic value is just the cash a business will produce, discounted back. Buffett thinks of every business as a bond with coupons that are not printed on it. Your job as an investor is to estimate those future coupons. If you cannot estimate them, like in a high-tech company, you pass. Investing is putting out money to get more back from what the asset produces, not from selling it to someone else. 22. The best businesses earn a royalty and need little capital. Coca-Cola sells a formula and takes a cut of every drink. Magazines like People operate on negative capital because subscribers pay in advance. The great businesses are the ones that can grow very large while needing almost no capital, which is why consumer businesses with pricing power are so valuable. 23. You only have to find one good idea, not twenty. Munger said you cannot find twenty deeply mispriced things, and Buffett agreed you do not need to. You do not have to have tons of good ideas in this business. You just need one good idea that is worth a ton, occasionally. For small sums, Buffett said he would have been 100% in Korea a few years earlier, where great companies traded at three times earnings. 24. The trick is measuring everything against your best opportunity. Munger calls this opportunity cost, the doctrine from the first page of the economics textbook that modern portfolio theory somehow ignored. Once you have found the best thing you understand, you measure every other option against it. The higher your default option, the more you can reject. 25. Modern portfolio theory is, in Munger's words, asinine. Most people will not find thousands of equally good things. They will find a few where one or two are far better than anything else they know. The right way to invest is to concentrate on your best opportunity cost, not to diversify into mediocrity because a model told you to. 26. Big opportunities must be seized, and seized big. Buffett says imagine you got a punch card with only twenty punches for your whole life, one per financial decision. You would think hard about each one, make fewer and better bets, and probably never use all twenty. The discipline of scarcity would make you rich. Dabbling in a bull market because it is easy is how people lose. 27. America has always been full of reasons to sell, and wrong every time. Coca-Cola went public in 1919 at $40, dropped to $19 within a year, and then faced the great depression, World War, and atomic bombs. One share reinvested is worth millions now. The country's opportunities have always won out over its problems. It is investors, not the economy, who tend to be their own worst enemy.

Jaynit

103,790 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Analyzing Episode 56. Season 2 aka Processing the Past Despite all the prophecies of doom, episode 56 was a delightful watch. The episode begins with Alya walking into prison, only to discover Meryem holding hands with Ciho. And, the way that entire scene is depicted, it's designed to make the audience see things from Alya's pov. Because we know not a few moments earlier, Cihan tells Meryem she should leave Mardin because there's nothing left for her there. However, from Alya's viewpoint, it seems like the past is repeating itself in the way she finds out about Mine and even Boran. Though this time, there's a slight difference because instead of following Cihan and discovering the truth herself, it's Boran who frames reality in the worst possible way. Still, Cihan and Alya's reactions differ slightly at this instance. For example, Alya's anger, while boiling at that moment, diffuses much quicker. And, while she doubts the reason Cihan keeps Meryem's presence from her, she doesn't start doubting their love. That fortress remains strong. Likewise, any time Cihan is discovered by Alya lying to her, he displays this vibe of embarrassment. You know, like wearing the expression of a kid caught doing something he shouldn't have been doing. But this time, when he rushes after Alya, there's a certain assurance in his gait. It's not overt, mind you, because Cihan knows he's in hot water. But it's almost like this time, he's sure of himself because his feelings in the matter are clear. He hides the truth for two reasons: he's protecting himself and Alya. The former because he doesn't want Alya pulling back from him at a time when she's already forced to leave the konak, and the latter because he doesn't want the spectre of Meryem to hurt her in any way. But the part I really liked in this while sequence? Alya's car breaking down. There are always moments in CihAl's story where you see some external force intervening to move their story forward. For example, the way the roads are blocked in ep42. In this episode, fate intervenes yet again, and the message is clear. Don't run from the past; face it. That message is compounded when Boran shows up on the same road to see the fruits of his labor. In the last few episodes, Alya's reactions to Boran seem to have intensified. I don't know why that is, but it seems like Alya's anger seems to be taking over her despair. To the point where Cihan becomes the one to hold Alya back, which, in my opinion, is a good thing. Anger can be cleansing, unlike passivity. And it seems the days of Alya quietly listening to Boran's BS are finally ending. Anyway, the scene moves on to Cihan driving Alya to a remote location to talk things over, which I kind of liked. I prefer when these two go far away from the maddening crowd to iron out their differences. And note, whenever that happens, they happen to be in a location that has a bird's-eye view of the scene below. Kind of like how you try to take in the bigger picture - another nice subliminal message. Cihan kicks off the conversation by saying Boran is trying to cloud Alya's mind, to which Alya responds adequately by saying the only thing messing with her mind is Cihan's attempts to lie because Boran no longer holds any importance for her. Is that true? I think so. Because even though Alya and Cihan are talking about a highly volatile topic, they're relatively calm. Accusations don't fly about either. And, I liked the fact that Alya openly tells Cihan that his trying to keep her in the dark, even to protect her, is what ends up hurting her the most. Because that is the truth. Cihan's reasoning as to why he keeps Meryem's presence from her in this scene is incomplete. He does want to protect Alya from the pain his past includes, but that's only half the reason. The bigger reason is he's trying to do his damnedest to keep Alya with him. He's already failed to try to keep her with him at the konak, but an emotional distance would likely finish him off. Which is why the talk CihAl have at Alya's apartment is so important. When Meryem calls, Cihan stops Alya from leaving the room - which sets the tone of the conversation. When Cihan relates the story of what Meryem has gone through, Alya's reaction is just what's to be expected. She's empathetic towards her plight, of being forced, of facing violence, because while Alya's lucky enough to find love with Cihan, she understands only too well how women are made to feel helpless and powerless. There's this expression on Cihan's face that can only be described as astonishment. Because, despite Alya's past, what she's gone through in Mardin, and despite Cihan's own stupidities, she finds it in her heart to feel for another woman she wouldn't be wrong to feel threatened by. And that's one of the things he is so in love with about Alya. Her compassion. When Cihan says he feels responsible for all that's gone wrong in Meryem's life since that fateful day, Alya asks him why he felt the need to hide things yet again. But this time, the whole truth comes out. Cihan admits he was afraid of her pulling back from him even more. Another thing to note, Alya refers to Meryem as Cihan's first love, not only love. So, she's not doubtful of his feelings for her. What's scary to Alya is how much of a hold those old feelings still have over Cihan. The good news from that point on is that Cihan doesn't keep anything from Alya regarding Meryem again. That includes him trying to send her to Istanbul to set up a new life for her. The scene ends on a relatively happier note of disaster averted. And Cihan and Alya both look better after talking it out. Still, as the viewers, we know that Alya's fear hasn't been defeated, just delayed. And until Cihan gives Alya the kind of resolution she gives him with Boran, it will keep pushing her away from him, like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Now, the next scene I want to talk about is the scene where Cihan and Kaya talk at the tavern/bar. I loved that entire sequence because we keep transitioning between Cihan's focus on Alya (his future) and Alya's focus on Cihan's past. When Kaya asks Cihan how he could fall for Alya after claiming to love Meryem, when Kaya and Sahin kept waiting/fighting for their respective loves, Cihan's answer reveals one of the reasons his past has sprung up on him, because he still doesn't get it. He says he loved Meryem, was tested by that love, gained experience from it, which prepared him to fight tooth and nail for Alya. He's partially right. Yes, the past and its challenges prepared him and chiseled his determination to fight for Alya. But, he's confused about loving someone and being in love with someone. He is so in love with Alya, he's overcome when he's trying to explain the emotion. True love, the deep, enduring, transformational kind, doesn't ever fade. Almost like it's a state of permanent being, because it survives time, distance, and yes, even death. If what you think love is weakens, is downgraded, moves from the heart to merely the realm of responsibility, it's not the 'love' that mankind has written sonnets about, that people dream about, that lovers die for. Because true love doesn't change, doesn't disappear, or relocate itself into something smaller. If it does, it was never that to begin with. Yes, people can love multiple times. But that feeling of being in love, that one love that trumps everything else, is another kettle of fish entirely. And, according to Cihan's own words, his love for Alya is the kind of thing he's never experienced before. Its weighty and rooted so deeply inside him, it's impossible to escape or forget. So, yes, Ciho is partially right to say that what he experienced with Meryem helped ready the man who'd love and fight for Alya like never before, but he's wrong to think that those feelings can be categorized under the heading 'love.' Since Cihan and Alya's story deals with balance, equality, and symmetry, it's unlikely that Alya's past would reveal she never loved Boran, whereas Cihan's past would be something like oh she prepared me for the future. In fact, I suspect it's a little of both for Cihan and Alya. As in, both Boran and Meryem paved the way to their actual true love, and yes, neither of them truly loved their exes. Not to mention, Boran has exposed himself completely, and Meryem's giving off bad vibes already. Alya understood that early on because of what Boran does to her. Cihan is about to learn. Which is why stories ever truly drag the past into the present anyway, because there's a truth, a lesson, a resolution hidden within, after which, the past can finally be buried and be left behind. So, to me, the vibe of ep56 is - processing the past. Looking at it, dealing with it, but most of all, facing it head-on. Essentially, we're seeing Alya and Cihan inch towards clarity now that both pasts are back in their lives at the same time. There’s still a final understanding waiting to click into place, for CihAl, about what love truly is and what it never was. And once that realization lands, the past won’t just be faced… it will lose its hold altogether. #CihAl #UzakŞehir

CocoLoco

21,239 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🔊 UNBELIEVERS: This world is about to be shaken to its core when the Rapture takes place! Fear will sweep every city, every nation, and every heart—but nothing will be more devastating than parents suddenly losing their babies, children dissapearing from their beds, and teens left behind without their loved ones! THE ONLY HOPE YOU HAVE NOW—AND THE ONLY HOPE YOU WILL HAVE THEN—IS TO PLACE YOUR TRUST IN JESUS CHRIST! DO NOT GET LEFT BEHIND—COME TO JESUS NOW!!!! ⚠The world is about to find out that this is NOT a mere story or fable—this will be the undeniable fulfillment of BIBLE PROPHECY AND THE VERY WORDS OF JESUS HIMSELF! 📖"And if I go and prepare a place for you, I will come again, and receive you unto myself; that where I am, there you may be also." John 14:3 👉🏼People will be shocked and terrified, and those who once heard the truth but rejected it will be filled with regret as they witness millions suddenly vanish. Everyone they knew who trusted in Jesus Christ ALONE for salvation will have been taken to Heaven by Him. THIS WILL BE THE MOST SHOCKING EVENT IN HUMAN HISTORY!! 📖"For the Lord Himself will descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of an archangel, and with the trumpet of God. And the dead in Christ will rise first. Then we who are alive and remain shall be caught up together with them in the clouds to meet the Lord in the air. And thus we shall always be with the Lord." 1 Thes 4:15-17 📖 "In a moment, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trumpet. For the trumpet will sound, and the dead will be raised incorruptible, and we shall be changed." 1 Cor 15:52 🔥Chaos will erupt instantly! Many firefighters, police officers, doctors, and emergency workers will be gone in a moment. Cars will swerve out of control, planes will plummet from the sky, and cities will be thrown into panic. The world will struggle for months just to recover from the catastrophic aftermath of the Rapture. ⚠They will try to DECEIVE YOU with lies—claiming the disappearances were caused by UFOs, aliens, or other false explanations. DO NOT BELIEVE IT! The truth is clear: JESUS CHRIST has taken His Church! DO NOT BE DECEIVED! 👉🏼This is the moment the Antichrist will rise and be revealed!! His time has finally come! He will be a strikingly charismatic leader, everyone will love him, he will present himself as the answer to a world thrown into chaos. As nations tremble and people cry out for security and safety, he will appear to be the perfect solution—the one who can bring order and peace. But do not be fooled: his peace will be false, and his intentions will be deadly! 🤝One of his first goals will be to sign a seven-year peace agreement with Israel (take a look at what’s happening at the UN on Monday, Sept. 22) and pave the way for the rebuilding of the Third Temple in Jerusalem. He will introduce the mark of the beast, which people will be required to receive in order to buy and sell. What follows will be the most HORRIFIC years humanity has ever known, intensifying when he sits in the Temple and declares himself to be God. ⚠ IF YOU ARE LEFT BEHIND: 👉🏼Parents: Your baby is safe in Heaven, surrounded by the love of God and provided for in every way—stay strong, there is still hope! God in His grace is shaking you just to give you another chance! 👉🏼Teens: If your parents are missing it's because they believed and placed their full trust in Jesus. Perhaps you disagreed or hadn't decided for yourself yet whether or not you wanted to follow Christ, this is why you are still here. Stay calm—there is still hope! God has laid out another opportunity for you! ⚠ LISTEN NOW: DO NOT TAKE THE MARK OF THE BEAST!!!! ⚠ No matter what happens—even if it means facing death or torture—do not take the mark! It is the ultimate, irreversible rejection of God’s mercy and grace. The moment you accept it, your destiny will be sealed: YOU WILL GO STRAIGHT TO HELL! 🚨PAY ATTENTION TO THIS: 👉🏼 The Two Witnesses: Be on high alert when two witnesses show up in Jerusalem, boldly confronting the Antichrist. Listen carefully to their message and do not oppose them—for they are God’s chosen messengers! 👉🏼The 144,000: God will seal 144,000 Jewish believers, granting them His special protection. Their mission is to boldly proclaim the Gospel during this unprecedented and shocking time. Listen to them and believe their message—they are appointed by God TO SAVE YOU! 👉🏼 The 3 Angels: Three angels will appear. One flying across the heavens, proclaiming the Everlasting Gospel to every person on earth; another warning of Babylon’s fall; and the third declaring a solemn warning—do not take the mark of the beast! Pay attention and obey their message—your life depends on it! 🔊It doesn’t matter why you’re still on Earth—God has given you one more chance! This is your moment to choose life before it’s too late. DO NOT MISS IT—YOUR ETERNAL DESTINY IS AT STAKE!!!! 🔊The times ahead are going to be extremely hard. Get a Bible and start reading it now, so you know the truth for yourself. Surround yourself with people who understand prophecy and the Word of God, because you will need guidance in these last days. 📖“For then there will be great tribulation, such as has not been since the beginning of the world until this time, no, nor ever shall be.” Matthew 24:21 🔊You will face persecution, and you may even have to lay down your life for Jesus. This is the time to fully trust Him, knowing that the moment you close your eyes in this world, you will open them in Heaven in His glorious presence. DO NOT MISS THIS OPPORTUNITY!! Turn to Jesus now, obey Him, and hold fast to the hope of salvation—HE IS THE ONLY ONE WHO CAN SAVE YOU FROM WHAT’S COMING!! 📖"We are CONFIDENT, yes, well pleased rather to be absent from the body and to be present with the Lord.” 2 Cor 5:8 📖“Nor is there salvation in any other, for there is no other name under heaven given among men by which we must be saved.” Acts 4:12 ︵‿︵‿︵‿︵︵‿︵‿︵‿︵︵‿︵‿︵‿ DO NOT GET LEFT BEHIND! WHY WAITING?! PLEASE GET SAVED AND GET RAPTURE READY NOW! JESUS IS COMING FOR HIS CHURCH 👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼 Believe Jesus is the Son of God, who shed His blood for you, died on the cross for our sins, He was buried and resurrected during the third day, according to the Scriptures, so we can have eternal life with Him. The moment you believe in Him and that He died for your sins - you're saved, justified, sealed until the day of redemption, and rapture ready! The Holy Spirit will come to live inside of you - He will help you, guide you, change you, and be with you FOREVER! "For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life. For God did not send His Son into the world to condemn the world, but that the world through Him might be saved. He who believes in Him is not condemned; BUT he who does not believe is condemned already, because he has not believed in the name of the only begotten Son of God." John 3:16-18 ︵‿︵‿︵‿︵︵‿︵‿︵‿︵︵‿︵‿︵‿

Maranatha777

139,360 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

🟢GIVEAWAY🟢 Best comments or memes about this whole circus + RT this post. 10 winners will each get $50💎 (For evidence, supporting materials, and context, read both articles and watch the video included in the article I posted yesterday) Housebets.com & Porchy pay your debts A few people told me they did not fully understand the first article because there were too many moving parts: leaderboard accounts, rewards, weekly dates, monthly bonus, Tequity, game categories, withdrawals, Provably Fair, seed changes, migration, support tickets, ledgers and founder messages. Fair enough. The evidence is already there, and I still recommend reading the full articles and, above all, watching the video, because the video shows the reward system failing live. But this text is the cleaner version: the full story explained in plain English, without assuming the reader knows anything about crypto casinos, leaderboards or lossback systems. From all the evidence I’ve gathered, the Housebets story is not a normal “player lost money” complaint. It looks like a full transparency failure across the whole product: leaderboard, rewards, withdrawals, game categories, Provably Fair / Tequity mapping, support, migration and founder response. Housebets sold itself as a rewards-first casino: public leaderboards, weekly/monthly bonuses, fast withdrawals, VIP treatment and Provably Fair games. But every time I asked for the records behind those systems, snapshots, ledger entries, weekly cycles, GGR/NGR, slider logs, PF seed mapping, Tequity round IDs, withdrawal approval logs, the answer became some version of “forwarded to the relevant department.” This started long before the public dispute. I was not some random angry player who appeared after one bad session. In January I was helping Housebets and giving product feedback. I literally told support on 27 January that I was “testing the website for George,” while already dealing with a non-instant withdrawal and a 100% welcome bonus that had not applied. Support even asked me for “proof about your testing job.” The same chat shows the advertised 100% Welcome Bonus, the bonus not applying, and support saying the withdrawal needed internal confirmation instead of being instant. The welcome bonus issue never looked clean. Housebets advertised a 100% Welcome Bonus up to $1,000 on first deposit; I deposited, contacted support, and the bonus did not apply. Then support effectively turned a first-deposit bonus into a second-deposit workaround because the first one had not been applied properly. On 31 January I came back after another deposit and told them the bonus still had not been applied, even though I had already followed support’s instructions. Edward replied that he had “forwarded” the concern to the team. The same 100% welcome bonus was still being advertised in March. By April, the rewards system was already showing serious problems. I had the weekly slider at 100% lossback and told support I had lost money but the weekly did not appear. Jacky said the weekly was generated every Thursday at 00:01 UTC and gave actual internal figures: GGR $6,250, Total Bonus $6,083.99, NGR $168.31. So Housebets clearly had internal calculations when it wanted to explain why something might not pay. But when I later asked for full calculations, those same numbers suddenly became impossible to produce. Then on 18–19 April, the rewards page was bugged and would not let me claim. Support could see a pending weekly bonus of $717.37, but I could not claim it from the UI. Tee said it had been forwarded to the relevant department. That $717.37 later appears in the bonus ledger as Rakeback (20 Apr) 717.37089061, so I am not saying that specific one stayed unpaid forever. The point is worse: already in April, support could see a pending weekly reward while the player-facing reward page did not work. For a casino built around rewards, that is not a small bug. That is the product. In May, the UI and account data kept failing basic trust checks. On 8 May, I deposited 400 USDT; support said it had been credited, but I could not see it, and the proposed fix was to log out, clear cookies and cache. On 16 May, I asked why total deposits and withdrawals had disappeared from the menu; support said the platform was “in continuous evolution.” On 17 May, I asked for my total deposits and withdrawals, and support said they did not have direct access to that consolidated summary and would email it. That full official ledger did not arrive. So when Housebets later defends itself with UI screenshots, remember: this was the same UI where deposits could be credited but invisible, totals disappeared, rewards pages bugged, and support could not access consolidated account totals. Withdrawals were also not what was advertised. On 16 May, I asked why a crypto withdrawal was pending if withdrawals were supposed to be instant. Tee answered: “A few withdrawals require manual approval,” then added, “Our withdrawals are typically instant but…” That matters because a few days later the withdrawal delay became real damage. On 25 May, I told support before a match that I needed the funds to place a time-sensitive bet on another site in less than 20 minutes. I explained I wanted to bet around 60k at odds of 2.55. The withdrawal did not arrive in time. Later I told them the bet won and that I missed around 90k in profit because Housebets took more than two hours despite being warned before the match started. Jacky said he would raise the compensation case to the VIP team. Nobody resolved it. This was not one delayed withdrawal either. In my formal complaint I reconstructed several withdrawal delays: 23 May 02:55 → 08:03, around 5h08m; 25 May 03:05 → 08:09, around 5h04m; 17 May 03:54 → 08:02, around 4h08m; 18 May 04:46 → 08:11, around 3h25m; 16 May 05:23 → 08:12, around 2h49m. That is not “instant withdrawal.” And if later marketing says withdrawals are much faster now, the obvious question is: if this was the faster version, what did slow look like? The Provably Fair / Tequity side was another major issue. On 17 May I asked support how to verify an old Blackjack round. I did not ask for a generic explanation of Provably Fair; I asked where I could see the server seed, client seed, nonce and result for previous games. Support sent me to bet history, mentioned RTP, gave a generic PF explanation and showed the current Dice seed screen. When I said that did not let me verify previous games, they told me to clear cookies/cache. After doing that, I saw a new client seed and nonce 1 even though I had not played with that seed pair. I asked if Housebets changes seeds on every login. Support could not answer and told me to contact VIP. That seed/session behaviour is important. I later recorded video evidence around the seed changing after clearing cookies/cache and asked for the exact mapping: Housebets account ID → Tequity/provider player ID → session/currency context → seed pair → server seed hash → revealed server seed → client seed → nonce/cursor → raw outcome → final result. Housebets cannot sell Provably Fair if the player cannot verify historical bets, and “contact VIP” is not a verification algorithm. On 24 May, I asked for raw verification data for a specific Tequity Blackjack round: Round ID e1648d60-0da1-4433-a5ab-9ae39f5302e3, Blackjack, Tequity, bet amount 11,346 USDT, client seed O3YBZF7LBu, server seed hash starting 712875.... I asked for revealed server seed, nonce, full result JSON, card draw order and verification algorithm. I also asked about an apparent duplicate-card/deck question. Tee replied: “I don’t have the answers to your questions right now, but I’m forwarding your request to the relevant department.” That same day, I asked for a full audit of six Dice bets of 11,400 USDT each, total 68,400 USDT. I requested bet IDs, provider round IDs, roll results, seed data, balance ledger, request/session logs, security logs, retry flags, provider records and a full technical reconciliation. Tee replied: “I will forward this to the relevant department.” So when I asked for raw data, the answer was not data. It was forwarding. Again. There were also many large loss clusters that required reconciliation because of those unresolved PF, Tequity, category, RTP and session questions. In my complaint I listed clusters such as 25 May 02:17–02:54 Blackjack around 169,932 USDT; 16 May 12:31–13:26 Dice around 90,571.92 USDT; 26 May 02:48–03:58 Mines around 89,199 USDT; 24 May 06:20–06:21 Dice at 68,400 USDT; 26 May 00:11–01:41 Blackjack around 59,910 USDT; 25 May 22:51–22:59 Dice around 59,576 USDT; and several more between 40k and 56k. I am not saying every losing cluster proves manipulation by itself. I am saying that when PF mapping, provider logs, RTP/HE, category mapping and seed/session behaviour are unresolved, these sequences need a real reconciliation. The leaderboard is where the story becomes very hard for Housebets to explain. Around 19–20 May, two new accounts, elmourabut and lucasmartirini, appeared and started climbing every day at a vertiginous pace. Not normal slow leaderboard growth. Not a casual player building volume over time. They were created around that period and then started rising with huge wagering in a way that looked extremely unnatural for brand new accounts. By 29 May, I was first on both weekly and monthly leaderboards, and those two accounts were directly behind me with huge volume. In the monthly leaderboard screenshots, I was around $3.33M wagered, while elmourabut was around $1.29M and lucasmartirini around $1.08M. In the weekly leaderboard, I was around $1.096M, while those two accounts were around $635k and $578k. They were not normal accounts sitting at the bottom; they were directly behind me, applying pressure. In my formal complaint I recorded that elmourabut joined on 19 May and lucasmartirini on 20 May, that they showed zero visible withdrawals, large deposits/wagering and significant card-game volume, and I asked Housebets to confirm they were not staff, test, QA, admin, house-controlled, affiliate-controlled, internally funded, promotional, bonus-only or multi-account related accounts. This matters because a leaderboard is not passive. It is gamification. It makes players defend rank. When two new accounts appear behind you with hundreds of thousands or more than a million in volume, you are pressured to keep wagering. In my case, the disputed deposit sequence from 25 May 22:23 to 26 May 02:09 totals 91,168.375326 USDT. That sequence begins with 1,000.00 at 22:23 and continues with repeated deposits until 2,879.148969 at 02:09. The video later shows why those dates matter: there were deposits coming in, no gameplay withdrawal offsetting the sequence, a balance basically at zero, and later a leaderboard prize shown as P/L. I formally asked Housebets to confirm those two leaderboard accounts were real and eligible, and also to preserve wager logs, transaction records, balance adjustment logs, account flags, leaderboard calculation snapshots, support ticket logs, Telegram/email records and internal notes. Edward said he forwarded the request. In the same thread, he added that they were “working on fixing an issue regarding the weekly bonuses,” and then said the weekly countdown was “not currently on Thursday evenings.” So the leaderboard issue and the weekly bonus issue are linked in time and support context. After that, Housebets confirmed by email that elmourabut and lucasmartirini were “legitimate and eligible accounts.” That email is the trap door. If they were legitimate and eligible, they should have remained in the leaderboard with their volume. If they were not, Housebets should never have confirmed them as legitimate and eligible. After that confirmation, the accounts disappeared from the leaderboard or stopped appearing in the positions their previous wagering required. I went back to support on 30 May and wrote: “There has been a material post-confirmation leaderboard change involving two accounts that Housebets had already confirmed as legitimate and eligible. I need the exact reason, timestamp, logs, and recalculation basis.” Edward said the matter was flagged and that I could expect a prompt response. I am still waiting for the actual explanation. Why did they disappear? My read is simple: because every hour that passed, there was more evidence around those accounts. They had been created around the same period, they were climbing at a speed that looked anything but human, they showed no visible withdrawals in the data I could see and reported, they appeared to be generating huge volume in unclear game categories, and the games/categories tied to that volume did not even make sense from the player-facing UI. When I started asking what they were actually playing, what Card meant, whether the volume was Tequity / UnOriginals / House Games, what RTP and house edge applied, and where the logs were, the questions became uncomfortable. Keeping those accounts visible became harder than removing them. So they disappeared. The game category issue made the leaderboard even more suspicious. On 30 May, I asked support why my own stats showed almost all my volume under Slots / Tragamonedas when I did not play real slots. I told them: “i dont play 3$ in unoriginals,” “i played all 3M in unoriginals,” and “ive never play slots.” I asked what “Card” was, where that game was, what RTP and house edge it had. Monica said Card was mainly Blackjack, Baccarat and Poker variants. Marcus later said the team was investigating why it showed that I mostly played slots when I had not. He could not give the exact game, RTP, HE, provider, category mapping or contribution logic. That matters because those same unclear categories were connected to leaderboard volume. If the site cannot clearly explain whether volume is Slots, Card, UnOriginals, House Games, Blackjack, Baccarat, Always 9 Baccarat or Tequity, then the leaderboard is not auditable for the player. I even asked which UnOriginals those two accounts were playing, and support told me to look at Live Bets. That is not an answer. I was not asking for gossip; I was asking what exact games generated leaderboard volume, what RTP/HE applied and whether that volume was eligible. There is also an earlier leaderboard-related precedent: Porchy had already told me in February that I would lose leaderboard places if I did not rename, because too many people were messaging support saying the site was not being fair due to my name and it “doesn’t make us look good.” That matters because it suggests leaderboard positioning was not treated as a sacred, untouchable system when public perception was involved. If leaderboard positions can be threatened for image reasons, then later claims that everything is purely automatic deserve scrutiny. Then Porchy made the leaderboard situation worse. Instead of producing logs or snapshots, he later said the leaderboard had “abusers” on it, that they were removed to help other players, and that it never affected me. Later he said they paid every single person, “even these abusers,” then called me “begging for money.” That creates a direct contradiction: Housebets confirmed the accounts as legitimate and eligible, then Porchy referred to leaderboard “abusers.” If they were abusers, why were they confirmed as legitimate and eligible? If they were eligible, why did they disappear? If they never affected me, where are the historical snapshots proving that? Once those accounts disappeared, Housebets paid the leaderboard prizes. On 1 June, the bonus ledger shows two Leaderboard entries: 5,007.46111706 and 1,001.49222341, totaling 6,008.95334047. That part was paid. But then Act Two started: the weekly and monthly rewards did not appear as separate ledger entries. The same bonus ledger shows those two 1 June entries as Leaderboard only, not Monthly Bonus, not Weekly Reload, not Lossback. The weekly timeline is a mess. On 28 May, the dashboard / UI said the weekly bonus was claimable every Thursday at 00:01 UTC, and the monthly was available on the 1st at 00:01 UTC. That same night I told support the weekly had shown as available, then reset to 6 days without paying. Later I sent screenshots and wrote: “1M wagered and 0.2$.” Jacky said he had raised the issue to the technical team. So the weekly failure was reported live, not reconstructed after the fact. The next day, 29 May, Edward said they were fixing an issue regarding weekly bonuses and that the weekly countdown was “not currently on Thursday evenings.” Then on 1 June, Spencer said the May weekly bonuses were 7th, 14th, 21st, and then due to migration the weekly moved to Monday, so there was one on the 25th on the new platform. He also said the 25 May weekly covered gameplay from 21–24 May, and that tech was looking at that plus the monthly bonus. The ledger does show a 25 May 02:10 Rakeback entry of 1,996.08334791, which likely corresponds to that 21–24 May weekly. But my major loss sequence starts about 20 hours later, on 25 May at 22:23, and continues until 26 May at 02:09. So the 25 May weekly cannot cover those losses. If weekly was still Thursday, the 25/26 losses should have been in the 28 May weekly. But the bonus ledger on 28 May shows only two tiny Rakeback entries, 0.28373945 and 0.00280958. If weekly moved to Monday because of migration, those losses should have appeared in the next weekly after 25 May. But on 1 June the ledger only shows Leaderboard entries. Then the final video shows the next Weekly Reload reaching zero, paying nothing and resetting to 6d 23h. So the same loss sequence appears to fall into no paid weekly cycle. The 4 June support conversation makes this even more ridiculous. After I recorded the weekly reset video, I asked support a very simple question: what were the last weekly dates/cycles? The dashboard / support flow again said weekly bonuses are claimable every Thursday at 00:01 UTC. Jacky confirmed: “Weekly bonuses can be claimed every Thursday at 00:01 UTC in the Rewards tab,” and added that if not claimed by the following Wednesday at 23:59 UTC, it expires. But when I asked for the exact last four dates, Jacky said he had to check with the relevant department. When I pressed again, he said, “Sorry, As I am only a CS, Let me raise your concerns to relevant department.” I asked whether support did not have the information or simply could not answer. He replied: “Do you have any other concerns?” They use weekly cycles to decide whether to pay, but support cannot explain the weekly cycle. The monthly is missing too. The dashboard / UI said the monthly bonus is based on activity and VIP level from the previous month and is available on the 1st at 00:01 UTC. In May I had more than 3,258,023.0829 wagered according to the formal complaint data. I also have proof/video that the monthly slider was set to 50/50. On 1 June, Spencer first told me I had claimed the Monthly Bonus at 1:12am BST around the same time as the monthly leaderboard reward. I immediately said I only received leaderboard prizes. Then Spencer changed the answer: “Our tech team are still actively working on issues regarding the monthly bonuses.” So first the monthly was claimed, then tech was still fixing it. The ledger still shows no Monthly Bonus entry. Housebets then seems to rely on “up overall” as a defence. But the video and ledger show why that does not work. My weekly/monthly profile later showed around +6,008 P/L with 0 deposits, 0 wagered and around 6,008 in bonuses. That number matches exactly the two 1 June Leaderboard payments. So the UI is showing leaderboard rewards as P/L. Then support used “up overall” to say I was not eligible for weekly lossback. That is not a clean lossback calculation. That is using a leaderboard reward as apparent profit to deny a lossback that should be based on actual eligible losses. There were also smaller reward-confusion issues along the way. On 22 May I asked for all pending bonuses,weekly, monthly, rakeback, level-up, anything, and support said the internal team would manually verify whether everything had been credited correctly and email me. On 24 May, I asked about level-up rewards because the reward looked like $3,500 for Pearl; support clarified it was $3,500 total across all Pearl levels, $500 per level. These are not the core issues, but they are part of the same pattern: rewards marketing, unclear UI, manual verification, emails that do not arrive, and players having to chase basic explanations. Then there is the migration. On 25 May, after the delayed withdrawal, missing VIP contact and unresolved issues, support told me my account would be moved to the new platform and that this upgrade would offer a better withdrawal process and fix many issues. Before that migration, I explicitly requested that no account data, internal data, logs, balance history, bonus history, bet history, provider records or pending issues be deleted. The response: “Your request has been relayed to the relevant department.” Again, forwarding. But if the old data is safe, Housebets should provide the old leaderboard snapshots, old weekly states, old bonus logs, old Tequity mapping and old withdrawal approval logs. The founder response did not fix anything. When Porchy finally engaged, he did not provide the records. He framed the settlement request as “so you want $100,000?” and asked whether I needed it or else I was going to post on X. I had already made clear this was not money for silence; I asked for logs, snapshots, withdrawal records, calculations and a counter-calculation if Housebets disagreed. He later referred to “abusers,” told me I was “up overall,” said “You are begging for money,” and suggested I “just do this to casinos.” Still no ledger. Still no weekly calculation. Still no monthly entry. Still no PF/Tequity mapping. Still no leaderboard snapshots. Another player also contacted me with screenshots pointing to similar categories of issues: private deals, leaderboard payout disputes, migration/account merge problems, missing history and a tiny monthly bonus despite claimed losses. I am not using that player’s case as the foundation of my claim without his full ledger, but it matters because it suggests the same type of opacity may not be isolated: private VIP/reward deals, leaderboard eligibility, monthly bonus calculations, migration and unclear history. If Housebets has private deals that affect leaderboard eligibility or rewards, it must explain how those deals interact with public leaderboards. So the overall picture is this: Housebets sold a public leaderboard and rewards system that pressured real wagering. Two new accounts appeared directly behind me with huge volume, were confirmed as legitimate and eligible, then disappeared after I asked for logs and questioned game categories. Housebets could not explain the exact games, RTP, house edge or category mapping behind the volume. The accounts were later framed by Porchy as “abusers,” contradicting the earlier eligibility confirmation. Once Housebets paid me the leaderboard prizes, those prizes were shown as P/L, and that contaminated P/L was then used to claim I was “up overall” and not eligible for lossback. At the same time, my real 25 May 22:23 → 26 May 02:09 loss sequence of 91,168.375326 USDT appears in no clean weekly cycle. The 25 May weekly covered 21–24 May according to Spencer, so it cannot cover that loss sequence. The 28 May weekly showed only tiny Rakeback entries and was already reported as broken. The 1 June ledger shows only Leaderboard entries. The later video shows Weekly Reload reaching zero, paying nothing and resetting. And when I ask support for the exact weekly calendar, they cannot answer and send it to the relevant department. The monthly is the same story. The dashboard / UI says it is based on activity and VIP. I had more than 3.25M wagered in May. Spencer first says I claimed it, then says tech is still working on monthly bonuses. The ledger shows no Monthly Bonus. If Housebets says I was not eligible, they need to show the formula, slider history, cycle, GGR/NGR, eligible loss/activity, deductions and ledger result. If they cannot, “not eligible” is just another label. And this opens another can of worms: Tequity / provider configuration. Housebets cannot hide behind “the provider” whenever something goes wrong. The player does not deposit with Tequity. The player does not withdraw from Tequity. The player does not speak to Tequity support. The player does not compete in a Tequity leaderboard. The player plays on Housebets, with a Housebets wallet, Housebets UI, Housebets rewards, Housebets leaderboard and Housebets support. 1/2

Dr. W

20,491 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад