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Seeing XPENG’s new IRON again,it remains truly stunning. It would be absolutely fantastic if it could actually walk around the venue lol -- During today’s interview session, founder Mr. He Xiaopeng told me that this anthropomorphic humanoid robot will initially be deployed in XPENG’s flagship stores to serve as...

1,419,528 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Billionaire investor Mark Cuban predicts humanoid robots will "fail miserably" within a decade: While most of the industry is racing to build robots shaped like humans, Mark Cuban thinks the entire premise is wrong. "I think everybody's making this push for humanoid robots. I think they might have a five-year lifespan and then they'll fail miserably. Maybe 10." His prediction covers more than just the machines. Asked whether he's referring to the companies or the devices, he answers: "Both. Both." His reasoning challenges the industry's core assumption: "Everybody defaults to well, we live in a human world and humanoids will take the place of humans for various functions particularly in the home. And I think there's just no chance." The evidence? Look at the places where automation already works at massive scale: "If you look at warehouses and what Amazon does, they're not humanoid robots carrying boxes. They're robots that are designed to fit the environment." But what about homes? Cuban has heard the counterargument that "a house is a house. You need a humanoid," and he rejects it entirely: "I think houses are going to be redesigned completely so that whatever the optimal robot is that allows it to simplify the house, that's where houses will go." Mark Cuban imagines robots shaped more like spiders or ants, working in houses where the pantry, refrigerator, and washing machines are hidden behind the garage. "That way you could redesign it so all the living space was for people because you know that the robots aren't going to be full form humanoids. They're going to be whatever the optimal shape is." His conclusion captures the whole thesis in one line: "You design the house to fit the robot and you design the robot to fit the house."

Big Brain AI

144,776 просмотров • 23 дней назад

Can United States manufacture robots? Matic Robots says "yes." It makes the best floor cleaning robot, that has won many perfect scores from Wired to many others. We love ours. But my trip there to get a tour from AI pioneer Navneet Dalal Navneet Dalal provided some real insights into how hard it is for a hardware company to make hardware in the United States. And how deeply AI is changing consumer electronics products that are going to be in many more homes soon. In this first part (Part II coming tomorrow) we get a look at how long it took for this company to go through prototypes to a shipping product. In the second part, you'll see the scaling hell that it takes to even ship a few thousand robots and the kinds of problems that scaling up a factory brings. Matic is one of my favorite small Silicon Valley companies. It has found what we call "product market fit." I just came back from CES where I saw many of its competitors, and the Matic wins because of not just the product thinking of Mehul and Navneet Dalal but because of their AI leadership. In a way their robot took many lessons from Tesla, from where to put the batteries to its bet on computer vision, which Navneet has been a pioneer in for years, working quietly behind the scenes. It is about to move into a new location that will allow it to grow to meet the demand that now is showing up (the boxes in its lobby show that it's outgrowing its current facilities). In terms of AI, it has aspirations of making a humanoid too, but it is taking a far more measured approach to getting there. By starting on the floor it can not just build world models based on real world data (customers are given a choice whether to allow its data to be used that way. Most customers choose to keep their data on the robot only, for privacy reasons, but if you opt in you can help them improve their models). They are using that data to understand homes. Navneet told me they hit very unusual situations in people's homes already that they couldn't really predict in simulators, like full-wall mirrors that confuse computer vision systems, or pools and water features in people's homes. Having real customers brings a ton of customer feedback about how to further improve the robot, and, as Navneet demonstrates in the second video, forces them to build a manufacturing muscle memory. Getting teams to work together, figuring out how to solve supply chain problems, from Trump's tarriffs, to a new one that showed up over the past couple of weeks. A supplier for its bags (one of the cheaper parts that goes into the robot) changed the glue it used, which caused robots to fail quality tests and the manufacturing line to stop. Reminds me a lot of the hell Elon Musk faced in its Fremont factory when Tesla was first starting to manufacture its Model 3, which almost bankrupted the company. Off the record Mehul and Navneet 🇮🇳 showed me some of the prototypes and plans for its next products that will show up over the next few years. Certainly not as sexy as Tesla, Figure, 1x_tech, and all the Chinese manufacturers are showing off already, but far better thought out for the typical Western home and AI plays a huge role in its future. It is the product that speaks for itself. It's amazing, and is about to get better this year due to AI. It's the first real vision-only robot to be in my home and I bet it won't be the last from this company. Real honor that they invited me over with my Insta360 camera (another company launched in my home, just like Matic was last year). In Part II we go into the factory.

Robert Scoble

69,229 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Everything Elon said about Optimus at the All-In Summit today: • We’re finalizing the design of Optimus v3. That release is going to be a very remarkable robot. It will have manual dexterity comparable to a human, meaning a very complex hand, an AI mind that can navigate and comprehend reality, and will be made in very high volume. • Other robotics companies are missing those three very hard things. • I spend more mental cycles on Optimus than any other single thing. Solving real-world AI, all of the electrical-mechanical issues, the supply chain, and production challenges. • There is no supply chain for humanoid robots, so it has to be created from scratch, which requires a lot of vertical integration. None of the actuators in Optimus are available from an existing supply chain. • I think if successful, Optimus would be the biggest product ever. • The marginal cost of production, once we hit a million units per year, will probably be around $20,000. It depends on how much we spend on the AI chip in the robot, and we’ll need to achieve a lot of efficiencies in the actuators—26 actuators per arm (26 motors, gearboxes, and power electronics). The AI chip might cost $5,000 or $6,000, maybe more. At 1 million units a year, production cost will be $20,000, maybe $25,000. Price will be a function of demand. • Human hands have evolved to be incredibly sophisticated machines. Hands are a very first instrument. You can swing a baseball bat, thread a needle, play a piano or violin, and assemble a car. Hands are incredibly versatile instruments. Most of the muscles of the hands are actually in the forearm, and the hand is almost like a puppet. Human tendon evolution is incredibly good. The human hand has 27 or 28 degrees of freedom, depending on how you count it; it’s amazing. • In order to create a robot that can be a generalized humanoid, you must solve the “hands problem.” • Even though there are 10,000 to 20,000 electric motors out there, we couldn’t buy the actuators for any amount of money. We had to design every electric motor, gearbox, and controlling electronics from scratch, from first principles of physics. • Optimus is harder than developing any previous Tesla product, but not harder than Starship. • Right now, we’re struggling with the final design of the hardware, primarily the hand. The hands and forearm are the majority of the engineering difficulty of the entire robot. • If you want to do all the things that a human can do, it turns out you need a humanoid robot. If you want to do a subset, that’s much easier. Humans evolved to the shape and capability that we have for a good reason. There is value to having four fingers and a thumb; even the pinky is quite useful. Toes are much more of a question mark. • The AI5 inference chip will be 40 times better than AI4 by some measures. We know the limiting factors of the chip because the AI software and hardware teams work so closely. Effectively, the Tesla AI hardware and software teams are co-designing the chip. • The Softmax function on AI4 takes 40 steps in emulation mode, which will take only a few steps in AI5 natively. AI5 will easily handle mixed precision. • In terms of nominal raw compute, the AI5 inference chip has 8 times more compute, 9 times more memory, and 5 times more memory bandwidth compared to AI4. Because we’re addressing some core limitations and optimizations at the silicon level, we’re able to realize 40x improvements.

The Humanoid Hub

238,877 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад