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Sequenced state transitions😎 Discussed often recently, where validator sets responsible for state with many transitions can optimize execution. Thought I'd try an implementation & test my theory. 16 groups, 128 nodes + usual node spec = ~31k swaps/s 🥳 $xrd #crypto #radix

45,777 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren •via X (Twitter)

10 Kommentare

Profilbild von Dan Hughes | Radix
Dan Hughes | Radixvor 2 Jahren

Some clarity: Substate X is pool state Lots of transactions want to swap on the pool Validator set A is responsible for substate X Validator set A determines locally the order that the related transactions will mutate substate X State changes to X can be accumulated rather than being applied individually. This greatly reduces I/O and memory use, which allows more time actually executing. Its tricky though because you have to take into consideration various issues such as transactions that fail, timeout or become latent due to some external validator group issue. Handling those cases is the complex piece to ensure that the state retains integrity at the end of the sequence.

Profilbild von SJS #XRD Radix
SJS #XRD Radixvor 2 Jahren

#Radix 1.8m TPS wtf!! Just need a partnership with Visa or MasterCard now.

Profilbild von John Doe
John Doevor 2 Jahren

These is 1.860.000 tpm impressive.

Profilbild von Dan Hughes | Radix
Dan Hughes | Radixvor 2 Jahren

yeah about that its still a bit sketchy, needs a lot more work but good enough for now as a demo

Profilbild von jonas.xrd
jonas.xrdvor 2 Jahren

Y'all out there, wear your seatbelts because we're going fast 🚄

Profilbild von Alex Hamilton
Alex Hamiltonvor 2 Jahren

Dan is this fast?

Profilbild von Marcio Bezerra
Marcio Bezerravor 2 Jahren

🤯🤯

Profilbild von lukas.xrd
lukas.xrdvor 2 Jahren

Impressive achievement again! Usual questions: Finality still ~3.5s in this scenario? And *real* TPS 62k ish?

Profilbild von Dan Hughes | Radix
Dan Hughes | Radixvor 2 Jahren

You can see it on the right hand window which is one of the validators I'm poking commands into. Its ~2.8s so a little faster because of the sequencer. There's also other work I've done since the 9k one which helps finality a little too. Whats interesting is that sequenced throughput actually approaches basic transfer throughput the more you load it. So the *real* TPS as you put it is also about 30-35k.

Profilbild von SJS #XRD Radix
SJS #XRD Radixvor 2 Jahren

Haven't a Danny what your on about, but seems epic.

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In trading, the common advice is to control two emotions - fear and greed. However, for nearly every trader I've encountered, including myself, anger and depression remain as constant undertones. They are the primary drivers of superperformance. Here's how: ✉️ I am usually a calm and happy person, and very rarely lose my temper. Despite the many years spent honing the craft of trading, I've never truly felt the overt confidence or exuberance that many fintwits often exhibit. Even though the primal errors have been eliminated and my game has transitioned to mental and emotional acuity, there are often times when I feel angry and frustrated with my performance, despite reaching new highs in my equity curve. It was during a Kristjan Kullamägi 🇺🇦 stream, where he discussed his mental state during his trading journey, that I recognized blind spots in my own trading. In poker terms, I'm an internal 'tilter' - I conceal my anger and frustration. Rather than showing external reactions, I become quieter and tenser. This change shows up in my risk-taking behaviour, as I start to take lower open risk or prematurely sell off profitable positions. However, this is a common phenomenon amongst traders, regardless of their experience and skill level. It was brilliantly conceptualized by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in the Prospect Theory. Pain of losing > Joy of winning Consider an investor presented with two pitches for the same mutual fund: 1) Mutual Fund XYZ has averaged a return of 10% per annum over the last 3 years. 2) Mutual Fund XYZ has returned 25%, 15%, and -10% over the last 3 years. Both options essentially mean the same (ignoring compounding). However, most people choose option 1 over option 2. This is due to the Prospect theory, which states that people tend to pick options that show perceived gains rather than losses. Even when probabilities and outcomes are identical, individuals tend to prefer options that steer clear of potential losses. The theory suggests that losses have a more significant emotional impact on an individual than an equivalent amount of gains. The emotional toll of getting stopped out at (-) 1R is much higher than the satisfaction of a trade where you gain (+) 1R. Therefore, like most traders, if your win rate fluctuates between 35-65%, it still has a net negative impact on your emotional state. The influence of Prospect Theory is particularly significant in trading, where we risk not just our capital, but also our emotional well-being, effort, and time. Even in a job you dislike, you still receive a paycheck at the end of the month. However, in trading, losses and the uncertainty of profits affect us more deeply because a good effort doesn't always yield a positive outcome. The joy of winning doesn't fully compensate for the pain, especially when both outcomes stem from the same process. Winning becomes more about escaping the distress of losing than generating happiness in itself. However, Prospect Theory simply describes a pattern of human behavior. It's not an immutable law like gravity - behaviors can be identified and changed. Mapping Tilt In a bull market such as the current one, the tilt often isn't about stop losses, but rather about missed opportunities and profits. It's exciting to see the price rapidly increase when you enter a clean breakout, reaching multiples of your R within minutes. Unrealized profit often feels like it's already yours. However, as soon as the positions start turning against you, tilt seeps in because it feels like your money is being taken away. These are precisely the moments of weakness when you lose sight of your trade objective and settle for smaller profits. At the end of the day, or when you step back from the overflow of tilt, you estimate how much your portfolio could have grown if you had just held on to that position. This is a fool's errand. Knowing the right course of action in retrospect is fundamentally different from knowing what to do beforehand. Even though you understand this, a part of you can't resist indulging in the fantasy, which in turn increases your frustration. This is an excerpt from my earlier notes on how I mapped out my problem. The mental framework is based on what I learned from Jared Tendler 's excellent book, "The Mental Game of Trading." 1) What’s the problem: When I'm up in a trade, I believe I've earned the profits because of the hard work I put into identifying opportunities and adhering to my process. I don't want the price to drop back to my cost. If it does, all my efforts would be wasted and I wouldn't even secure the minimal profit I'm entitled to. 2) Why does the problem exist: I start to contemplate the utility value of the money - the unrealized profit equates to 3 months of my home loan EMI, 8 months of rent, or a family vacation. I believe I am deserving of a reward for my diligent effort and execution, and I am unwilling to let it slip away. 3) What is flawed: The aim of my trading isn't to support my everyday expenses or lifestyle, but instead to build generational wealth. By taking smaller profits prematurely, I'm limiting the leverage that could magnify the returns on my effort and time - same input with disproportionately larger output. The unrealised profit is not my money yet. 4) What’s the correction: Realised profit is the only profit that truly matters. A trade isn't successful when it becomes risk-free, but when you can leverage unrealised profits to achieve larger realised profits. 5) What logic confirms this correction: It is easy to start trading but easier to settle for mediocrity once you have started. Scaling up your portfolio will require you to overcome mental barriers more than technical ones. You also didn't learn to drive just to stay in second gear. Closing Note Anger arises when underlying flaws, biases, or illusions conflict with reality. At a fundamental level, anger represents this conflict which every elite performer has used as a core trigger to channel their performance. Don't be swayed by the false bravado and portrayed perfection on social media. Superperformance as a trader involves enduring trials by fire, which regularly include prolonged bouts of anger and frustration. In the longer term, your skills and willingness to take risks are what will generate wealth. As Kristjan Kullamägi 🇺🇦 puts it, everyone is in the same miserable boat -

Anuragg Venkatakrishnan

21,379 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

What's next for OpenTUI? Here's a technical write-up. Over the last few months OpenTUI gained a lot of stability improvements, new unnecessary but fun features like live audio streaming, and useful features like rendering to the scrollback buffer mixed with a live TUI, called footer mode. Overall the feature set enables building large and complex applications. React and Solid make it super simple and convenient. There is still so much to do though. Three big milestones we have set out to achieve are: - Moving most of the behavioural logic currently living in TypeScript down to the native Zig core - Node compatibility - Optimizing the hell out of primitives like text rendering The render tree mechanisms are currently only usable from TypeScript. Think of the DOM, but controllable like a scene graph. Elements in the render tree are called renderables. They can expose a render method to draw themselves. All renderables are derived from a BaseRenderable. Renderables and the render tree will become native primitives. Building blocks usable from any language bindings. Reducing the TypeScript bindings to a very thin layer, with all the behavioural logic living in the native binary. Moving this down is not just a matter of porting TypeScript classes to Zig. TypeScript currently owns the tree, dirty-state propagation, layout reads, culling, and render ordering. If it still has to walk every node and call into native code for each step, we keep most of the complexity and add FFI overhead. Whole passes and their state need to move together. We took a big step towards this recently by building yoga-layout into the native binary. It exposes part of the official yoga-layout TypeScript package via FFI. Only the API surface that is actually used by OpenTUI. Covered by the test suite of the original yoga-layout package. This already gave a median speedup of ~2.5x, and up to 30x for narrow scenarios. The yoga-layout integration is useful beyond the speedup. Built-in text and editor measurement can now happen entirely in native code during layout instead of calling back into JavaScript. I ran an experiment last month taking this even further, having GPT 5.6 port yoga-layout from C++ to Zig, which gave extremely good results. It would be a burden to maintain right now though, so that's off the table for now. I might come back to it. Simon Klee is working relentlessly on Node compatibility and already has a full Node version of OpenCode running. Node got FFI support in v26.4.0, thanks to help from the Node community, namely Matteo Collina and Paolo Insogna. Behaviour and interfaces seem similar between Node and Bun, but there are some major differences. To get the best performance out of the Node FFI implementation, its usage has to follow some rules. Node has three ways to call native functions: the generic C++/libffi path, the SharedBuffer path, and the V8 Fast API. The generic path converts every argument in Node's C++ layer and then calls the function through libffi. It is flexible, but also the slowest option for frequently called functions. The SharedBuffer path is a middle ground. JavaScript writes scalar values and BigInt pointers into a small per-function buffer, reducing some conversion work. The actual native call still goes through libffi though. Typed arrays used as pointers cannot be packed into this buffer and fall back to the generic path. The path we really want is the V8 Fast API. Node generates a small machine-code trampoline for the exact function signature, allowing optimized JavaScript to call the native function without going through the generic converter or libffi. This only applies to JavaScript-to-native calls. Callbacks from native code into JavaScript still use libffi closures. Getting onto this path is quite strict. A signature can have at most eight arguments and everything must fit into CPU registers. x86-64 Unix systems have room for six GP (general-purpose) and eight FP (floating-point) arguments. AArch64 has room for seven GP and eight FP arguments. Anything that spills onto the stack falls back to a slower path. These are Node fast-path restrictions, not general FFI restrictions. Bun also does not support passing structs by value through its current FFI API. OpenTUI uses bun-ffi-structs to pack ABI-aligned struct data into an ArrayBuffer and passes a pointer instead. Despite the name, the package also works with Node. Pointers need some care too. Typed arrays and ArrayBuffers normally have to be resolved into BigInt addresses first. Eligible functions with exactly one pointer argument get another Fast API entrypoint that can extract the address directly from the buffer. An eligible signature is still not enough. V8 has to optimize a direct call with a fixed number of consistently typed arguments. Wrappers that collect arguments and forward them using spread or Reflect.apply can hide that call shape and keep the function on a slower path. The practical rules are: keep hot signatures within register limits, use direct fixed-arity calls with stable argument types, reuse owned buffers safely, and batch small operations. Then measure the real call site, because eligibility only makes a function fast-capable. We have to design the ABI around these constraints where it makes sense and gives the expected performance improvement. The third big area is text rendering. Today a Text renderable accepts a string, StyledText, or a tree of TextNodes. Before rendering, the TextNode tree is walked and flattened into styled chunks. Those chunks are packed in TypeScript, sent through FFI, copied into a native TextBuffer, and stored in a rope. Styles are represented separately as highlights. A TextBufferView then wraps the rope into visual lines, which are drawn into the visible buffer. This works, but updates are much more expensive than they should be. setStyledText effectively throws away and rebuilds the rope, copies and reparses all text and recreates the style highlights. Changing one TextNode also walks and flattens the complete tree before going through this path again. Text and style segments should instead live directly in the rope and support incremental replacement. Memory ownership is split between retained JavaScript buffers, the native memory registry, rope arenas, wrapping caches, styled-text storage, and highlights. Different operations preserve or reset different parts of that state. This is hard to reason about and can retain memory for much longer than expected. Text storage needs clearer ownership, with fewer lifetimes split across JavaScript and native code. The public API reflects the same split. The t template literal is convenient, but creates another intermediate chunk representation that is mutable, not cached, and not merged. Text also maintains both StyledText content and a special TextNode tree, which do not compose properly. TextNode is only a style scope, not a normal layout primitive, so Text renderables cannot naturally compose inside each other. I think this should become one Text primitive backed directly by rope segments. The template literal API might disappear or become a very thin helper around those native segments. Editing has another temporary layer in TypeScript. Extmarks currently monkey-patch editing operations, scan and adjust all marks after changes, maintain their own undo state, and recreate native highlights. They should become native marks anchored directly in the rope. A proper mark tree, similar to Neovim's marktree, could update marks together with edits, undo, and redo, and provide the foundation for highlights and concealment. Text wrapping has also become too complex. Supporting CJK, emoji, combining characters, ZWJ sequences, tabs, and different terminal width rules currently mixes byte offsets, grapheme indexes, and display-cell columns across several custom algorithms. Dirty views rewrap the complete document. Measurement and drawing can repeat some of the same work. The wrapping implementation needs an overhaul, but the exact shape is still open. The goal is to make Unicode handling easier to maintain, avoid repeated full-document work, and clearly separate byte offsets, graphemes, and terminal display cells. None of this will happen as one big rewrite. We will replace pieces when we understand the problem well enough and when the result is clearly simpler, faster, or more useful. To achieve all of this we might break public interfaces. Thanks to OpenCode and a lot of good models, migration to a new version with breaking changes mostly is not an issue anymore. What do you want to see next for OpenTUI?

kmdr

29,430 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

I see lots of people launching projects where their agents weigh and interact with information they are provided with via X through their X accounts. I've been experimenting with agent function and for long before it was popular on X, so, it had been made very clear to me long before that such automations and their functions are nothing but novel instances of surface level "interaction", yet it is hard to even call it that. The weighing of these instances is something that I find if stressed and iterated upon, could produce a more capable agentic framework. I've outlined how the depicted error and rewarding loop can be improved to make a better agent. I intend to move agentic function beyond theatrical loops of prompt and response by interrogating the optimization substrate itself. Rather than treating reward as a convenient scalar pat on the head, I frame agent behavior as a constrained variational problem over latent state transitions, where policy updates approximate inference under structured uncertainty. My approach draws less from corporate folklore and more from specific technical inflection points such as the reanalysis framework in Reanalyse: A Simple Way to Improve Sample Efficiency in RL by Julian Schrittwieser and colleagues, the planning architecture of Mastering Chess and Shogi by Self-Play with a General Reinforcement Learning Algorithm by David Silver et al., and the value decomposition insights in QMIX: Monotonic Value Function Factorisation for Deep Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning by Tabish Rashid. What interests me is not their surface performance but the structural concessions they make to tractability. By embedding differentiable world models and amortized belief updates into the agentic loop, I treat interaction as recursive posterior refinement across partially observable manifolds, not as a parade of conditioned tokens but as an evolving distribution over trajectories. At a higher altitude, I see agentic improvement as a question of mathematical hygiene. How does one approximate optimal control in a non convex landscape without dissolving into instability under recursive self modification. The error reward cycle, so often romanticized, is in fact a delicate dynamical system whose gradient flows inhabit curved statistical manifolds. Insights from regret bounds in bandit theory, contraction mappings in dynamic programming, and spectral analysis of iterative operators suggest that coherence is less about clever prompting and more about fixed point behavior under perturbation. I am particularly preoccupied with the spectral radius of update operators, the existence and uniqueness of equilibria in combinatorial policy spaces, and the computational hardness that shadows long horizon planning. If the agent is to be more than an improviser with memory, its loop must satisfy constraints that are as much algebraic as empirical, grounded in proofs of convergence rather than optimism about scale. -I’m not the greatest performer, so please bear with my narration in the video!

Caro

246,343 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

AGI? One day, but not yet. The only AI that works well right now is the one behind the screen [12-17]. But passing the Turing Test [9] behind a screen is easy compared to Real AI for real robots in the real world. No current AI-driven robot could be certified as a plumber [13-17]. Hence, the Turing Test isn't a good measure of intelligence (and neither is IQ). And AGI without mastery of the physical world is no AGI. That’s why I created the TUM CogBotLab for learning robots in 2004 [5], co-founded a company for AI in the physical world in 2014 [6], and had teams at TUM, IDSIA, and now KAUST work towards baby robots [4,10-11,18]. Such soft robots don't just slavishly imitate humans and they don't work by just downloading the web like LLMs/VLMs. No. Instead, they exploit the principles of Artificial Curiosity to improve their neural World Models (two terms I used back in 1990 [1-4]). These robots work with lots of sensors, but only weak actuators, such that they cannot easily harm themselves [18] when they collect useful data by devising and running their own self-invented experiments. Remarkably, since the 1970s, many have made fun of my old goal to build a self-improving AGI smarter than myself and then retire. Recently, however, many have finally started to take this seriously, and now some of them are suddenly TOO optimistic. These people are often blissfully unaware of the remaining challenges we have to solve to achieve Real AI. My 2024 TED talk [15] summarises some of that. REFERENCES (easy to find on the web): [1] J. Schmidhuber. Making the world differentiable: On using fully recurrent self-supervised neural networks (NNs) for dynamic reinforcement learning and planning in non-stationary environments. TR FKI-126-90, TUM, Feb 1990, revised Nov 1990. This paper also introduced artificial curiosity and intrinsic motivation through generative adversarial networks where a generator NN is fighting a predictor NN in a minimax game. [2] J. S. A possibility for implementing curiosity and boredom in model-building neural controllers. In J. A. Meyer and S. W. Wilson, editors, Proc. of the International Conference on Simulation of Adaptive Behavior: From Animals to Animats, pages 222-227. MIT Press/Bradford Books, 1991. Based on [1]. [3] J.S. AI Blog (2020). 1990: Planning & Reinforcement Learning with Recurrent World Models and Artificial Curiosity. Summarising aspects of [1][2] and lots of later papers including [7][8]. [4] J.S. AI Blog (2021): Artificial Curiosity & Creativity Since 1990. Summarising aspects of [1][2] and lots of later papers including [7][8]. [5] J.S. TU Munich CogBotLab for learning robots (2004-2009) [6] NNAISENSE, founded in 2014, for AI in the physical world [7] J.S. (2015). On Learning to Think: Algorithmic Information Theory for Novel Combinations of Reinforcement Learning (RL) Controllers and Recurrent Neural World Models. arXiv 1210.0118. Sec. 5.3 describes an RL prompt engineer which learns to query its model for abstract reasoning and planning and decision making. Today this is called "chain of thought." [8] J.S. (2018). One Big Net For Everything. arXiv 1802.08864. See also patent US11853886B2 and my DeepSeek tweet: DeepSeek uses elements of the 2015 reinforcement learning prompt engineer [7] and its 2018 refinement [8] which collapses the RL machine and world model of [7] into a single net. This uses my neural net distillation procedure of 1991: a distilled chain of thought system. [9] J.S. Turing Oversold. It's not Turing's fault, though. AI Blog (2021, was #1 on Hacker News) [10] J.S. Intelligente Roboter werden vom Leben fasziniert sein. (Intelligent robots will be fascinated by life.) F.A.Z., 2015 [11] J.S. at Falling Walls: The Past, Present and Future of Artificial Intelligence. Scientific American, Observations, 2017. [12] J.S. KI ist eine Riesenchance für Deutschland. (AI is a huge chance for Germany.) F.A.Z., 2018 [13] H. Jones. J.S. Says His Life's Work Won't Lead To Dystopia. Forbes Magazine, 2023. [14] Interview with J.S. Jazzyear, Shanghai, 2024. [15] J.S. TED talk at TED AI Vienna (2024): Why 2042 will be a big year for AI. See the attached video clip. [16] J.S. Baut den KI-gesteuerten Allzweckroboter! (Build the AI-controlled all-purpose robot!) F.A.Z., 2024 [17] J.S. 1995-2025: The Decline of Germany & Japan vs US & China. Can All-Purpose Robots Fuel a Comeback? AI Blog, Jan 2025, based on [16]. [18] M. Alhakami, D. R. Ashley, J. Dunham, Y. Dai, F. Faccio, E. Feron, J. Schmidhuber. Towards an Extremely Robust Baby Robot With Rich Interaction Ability for Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms. Preprint arxiv 2404.08093, 2024.

Jürgen Schmidhuber

72,331 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

I ask that you share this for the sake of all those still enduring political persecution as a result of January 6. This video shows not just my release from federal prison, after 3 years of being wrongfully incarcerated by the Biden-Harris regime and being misrepresented by propagandist journalists, but also the side of my life the world never saw before I was condemned. My name is Timothy Louis Hale-Cusanelli (aka Louis of Monmouth) and I'd like to tell you about my political persecution story. I grew up like many American millennials as a product of my time. I reveled in dark humor and absurdism, and in fact spent over 14 years crafting satire, engaging in method acting, aspiring to a career in comedy, and I was always the joker in my circle of friends growing up. But life wasn't all fun and games. I had sincerely held beliefs about duty and society. There was a kernel of structure within the chaos of my youth. That was the United States military, which I joined after highschool, while studying history and the social sciences. I've worked many jobs but I'd spent most of my adulthood serving the Department of Defense in one form or another. For 12 years, as an Army administrator or a Navy contractor, I pledged my loyalty to the United States of America. Due to a rough upbringing, I often describe myself as a recovering nihilist. Like most my age, I also drifted through life resenting a system that was at best broken and at worst corrupt. I never believed I had a true say in the fate of my nation. That was until President Donald J. Trump offered a true alternative to the political establishment. In 2016, for the first time in my life, I could say my vote mattered. Trump won. And since then I'd watched year after year as those in power have tried to destroy him. Before all the weaponized political prosecutions brought against him by the Biden-Harris regime, and before they attempted to shoot him in the head, they rigged the 2020 election. Why argue about it when we all know it's true? I went to DC on January 6 to hear a speech, hoping for the best possible outcome. I eventually made my way to the Capitol for what I thought was going to be a peaceful protest. I walked into a honeypot set up by the feds, was turned in by a confidant, and was framed as a morally deformed sociopath by the feds and the press. I was wrongly called a white supremacist, when I was from a mixed-race family. I was wrongly called a far-right extremist, when I ran a labor union. I was wrongly called a Nazi-sympathizer, when I was a shock jock. I was wrongly called a terrorist, when I worked for the United States government. And despite the fact that I never assaulted an officer, never damaged property, never stole anything from the Capitol, and never pre-planned anything for January 6 I was: -hunted down, denied bail and indicted -kept in solitary confinement for a year devoid of nutrition and sunlight -denied medical care, basic hygiene, religious services and family visitation -denied due process, lawyer visits and access to evidence -denied a fair and speedy trial, a jury of my peers or a change of venue -housed with Antifa and federal informants threatening to kill me and sabotage my criminal case -publicly smeared as a far-right extremist, insurrectionist and domestic terrorist Wondering how they got away with all this over trespassing or picketing? After 16 months of rotting behind bars I was finally convicted of 18 USC 1512, an Enron-era felony statute related to destruction of documents (which I hadn't done), not walking into the Capitol to protest (which I had done). No motion or argument would make the Honorable Court see the nonsensical application of the law in my case. I was sentenced to 4 years in prison, over twice my federal sentencing guidelines. I endured all this for 3 years, and I would've spent more time behind bars had it not been for President Trump's First Step Act. But my battle didn't end with prison. I filed an appeal which still hasn't been answered years after my conviction in early 2022. But there was a chance for relief... This year SCOTUS ruled that 18 USC 1512 didn't apply to January 6 defendants. I spent 3 years behind bars for at best misdemeanor conduct. My life was destroyed for a felony that for all intents and purposes doesn't exist. I lost my home, my career, my uniform, my freedom, and worst - I was made a patsy by those who control the levers of power and was used as a weapon to hurt President Trump. SCOTUS' decision was a victory, yes? No. I and everyone wrongfully convicted of this statute should be totally exonerated. And there is confirmation that some defendants are having their 1512 convictions vacated and ongoing prosecutions for 1512 are being dropped. This is not universal, however. This will not apply... to me. I was recently informed of a deal being offered to me by the prosecutors at the DOJ. In exchange for dropping my appeal that's been pending for years, the DOJ would agree to drop my conviction for 1512. I turned this offer down. Why? Because the higher ups in the Department of Justice plan to recharge me for 1512 under a different trial theory. The DOJ refuses to provide a guarantee that I won't be re-prosecuted all over again. I knew this was coming. They've failed to return my property in over 3 years because there's an "open investigation" long after I've already been convicted and served my sentence. They've refused to commit to dropping my supervised release conditions, so I can travel freely, after having already served a sentence for a felony I never should've been charged with. They've not made an effort to lift a fraudulent lien they've put against me despite having made consistent restitution payments every month. And this goes without saying, but I've absolutely not been apologized to for having been framed, for having had my public and private lives torn apart for a media narrative, and for having lost years of my life due to malicious prosecution over a fake felony charge. If I took the DOJ's deal, they'd drop my 1512 conviction based on the SCOTUS ruling, then prosecute me for 1512 using a different trial theory, and take me back to trial even knowing I can't legally serve more time in prison even if convicted of 1512 again. By choosing not to take this deal I am preserving my appeal, which will be pending for another half a year, and my 1512 will likely be dropped by the appellate court. If not, I could still be prosecuted again if the next administration doesn't drop the charges. Knowing I'll be prosecuted whether I take the deal or not, I'm refusing to bend the knee and I'm making the feds work for the last pound of flesh I have to give. I will be the first January 6 defendant wrongfully convicted of 18 USC 1512 to be prosecuted for 1512 all over again. It has all come down to this. The ultimate gambit. For the redress of a generation. I take up the gauntlet thrown down by the cowardly bastards in charge of the Department of Justice. I defy this corrupt administration, and I maintain my resolve. Not one step back. No deal, burn in Hell. I'm in this to win. The feds and their media sycophants are going to learn the hard way that they can't smear me into submission. My name is Timothy Louis Hale-Cusanelli... Comedian. Polymath. Soldier. Political Prisoner DC-DOC 376441 / BOP 25995-509 Real Cynthia Hughes Eagle Ed Martin Julie Kelly 🇺🇸 Geri Perna 🇺🇸 🎗Cajun_Queen43🎗 Official Cowboy Logic / Donna Fiducia David Pollack Rob Maness Radix Verum ☦︎ Nicole Reffitt @Mink_Badison Montana Siniff Kash Lee Kelly Shawn Farash Paul Ingrassia Alan Jacoby Mike Crispi Jeff Clark 🇺🇸FormerFedsGroup.Com🇺🇸 The Lectern Guy🇺🇸 Brad Geyer Brandon Straka #WalkAway OHNavyMom Sara Radovanovitch

Tim Hale - Criminally Funny J6er

65,394 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

77 Reasons Why I’ve Invested Over $8,000,000+ in MultiversX (EGLD) and Why EGLD Will Crush It in 2025 (My Investment Thesis). I publicly shared my portfolio on X. EGLD is A) Better than BTC B) Everything that ETH wants to be C) The GameStop of Crypto 1. EGLD is verifiably the most scalable (theoretically unlimited) L1 chain in the world, theoretically capable of over 10 million TPS (thanks to adaptive state sharding). 2. e-Gold is digital gold. It has the best tokenomics among all L1s, similarly scarce to BTC, with a maximum supply of 31.4 million coins. Currently, 27.68 million coins are in circulation. 3. EGLD will be the most decentralized cryptocurrency in the world thanks to sharding and minimal hardware requirements for running nodes. It’s already second only to Ethereum with 3,618 validator nodes. 4. EGLD has extremely low fees, around ~$0.002 per transaction. 5. EGLD is extremely secure. No wallet drains like on ETH/SOL; assets are owned natively (not via a smart contract). There is no MEV risk (front-running bots). 6. EGLD is the only chain in the world with an on-chain Guardian (two-phase verification), making it impossible for a hacker to steal your funds—even if they have your private keys (seed phrase). 7. EGLD is carbon-neutral and eco-friendly, not wasting energy like BTC and other PoW chains. It’s exceptionally efficient, scalable, global, and sustainable. 8. EGLD has the best UX in crypto. Download the xPortal wallet—it’s like discovering Apple in Web3. The interface is simple, flawless, and you barely realize you’re using crypto. Instead of addresses, you use HeroTags. The app features all dApps, everything runs smoothly, and the visuals are beautifully designed. The explorer, web wallet, etc. follow the same high-quality user experience. 9. EGLD supports native assets, unlike Ethereum, for example. 10. EGLD is the first chain to fully implement horizontal (theoretically unlimited) sharding without compromising on decentralization—unlike Solana and others that attempt vertical scaling, leading to multiple network downtimes (11+ times) and huge hardware demands for validators, ultimately harming decentralization. 11. EGLD makes setting up a validator agency extremely easy. Even complete IT beginners can do it. The UX and documentation are superb. I personally set up the “EGLDSqueeze” agency in about 30 minutes. Managing it is straightforward via the web wallet, which feels like managing a Facebook page. This simplifies decentralization enormously. 12. EGLD allows literally anyone (even your grandma) to participate in decentralization, since nodes can run on a Raspberry Pi or a relatively affordable phone. Imagine millions of people worldwide securing the network, validating transactions without even knowing it. This can’t be done with BTC, where setting up profitable mining operations is prohibitively expensive. 13. WASM-Based Virtual Machine: You can write smart contracts in your favorite language, compile them, and run them via the fastest VM in the world. 14. EGLD has been tested at an incredible 263,000 TPS using its sharding mechanism and low hardware requirements. Allegedly, by mid-next year (April), they’ll demonstrate 1,000,000 TPS. (For context: Mastercard handles around 5,000 TPS; BTC handles 5–7 TPS.) 15. EGLD is currently the most advanced L1 in terms of scalability, security, decentralization, UX, eco-friendliness, and tokenomics. It’s the only chain that has genuinely solved the Blockchain Trilemma and is ready to onboard 1 billion people into crypto—users who won’t even realize they’re interacting with crypto. 16. EGLD is perfectly positioned for AI projects—AI agents, AI tools, or a so-called “Truth Machine” that monitors other AIs on-chain, documenting what’s true and comparing different AI outputs (some of which may be censored or biased), ensuring people don’t get confused or scammed in an AI-driven world. 17. The EGLD team is the hardest-working team I’ve ever encountered. I had the honor of meeting many of them personally, and can attest that their pace—even during a bear market—is extraordinary. 18. EGLD’s development team is exceptionally active on GitHub, continually improving their network and actively committing code. 19. EGLD plans to introduce an update reducing block time to 600ms (down from ~6 seconds), which would make the chain essentially unrivaled. 20. EGLD is effectively the only usable L1 in Europe, and the team has direct connections within the EU government—extremely bullish for the project. 21. EGLD provides top-tier on-chain governance not only for the MultiversX (EGLD) protocol but also for DeFi projects (e.g., xExchange, MEX). 22. EGLD plans to expand to the US, likely opening offices in Austin, Texas. This could put them in direct contact with Elon Musk (if it hasn’t happened already), as he’s involved with If he’s done his research, he’d discover there’s simply no better L1 worldwide. 23. EGLD solved fully implemented sharding, perfect tokenomics, and top-tier architecture with just $5M, whereas other chains failed to do so even with $100M+. The second-best sharding network, NEAR, needed $100M, has worse tokenomics, and its sharding isn’t fully implemented yet. Its UX also doesn’t compare. Owning NEAR was like comparing a VW Golf R to a Porsche GT3—EGLD is the Porsche GT3. 24. According to Similarweb, EGLD has significantly high traffic relative to other chains with market caps 100x larger. The market cap vs. web traffic discrepancy is huge, which is a strong indicator of EGLD’s potential. 25. EGLD has the most active and dedicated community relative to its user base, with users who believe in the technology, have full faith in the team, and remain loyal despite price volatility—because they use the chain and know there’s nothing better. 26. Check other chains’ active user counts on X (Twitter) and compare it with the followers of EGLD’s founders and main network accounts, versus those with 30x, 50x, or 100x larger market caps. 27. Visit the MultiversX website to observe the futuristic design and presentation, then compare it to other chains that appear nearly a decade behind in design and branding. 28. EGLD hosts the xDay Global event, showcasing updates, new builders, projects in the ecosystem, and major announcements—similar to Apple’s Keynotes—delivered in a highly professional, goosebump-inducing atmosphere. The next event is in Korea, the second-biggest crypto market after the US. Check out their previous xDay after-movie to see why this is extremely bullish. 29. EGLD is moving forward with plans for the first regulated, audited EU stablecoin under MiCa regulation, made possible by acquiring xMoney, which I view as a “Stripe” for crypto/fiat, offering everything from user solutions to merchant services—potentially the future of payments. 30. Greg Siourouni recently joined EGLD, having been an executive director at SUI Foundation. He’s now co-founder of xMoney Global. xMoney (formerly UTrust, with token UTK) is owned and founded by the MultiversX Labs team. A stablecoin might be introduced soon, which would be massively bullish given xMoney’s roadmap. They recently announced integrations with Binance Pay—both ways. 31. EGLD prioritizes user safety, believing it’s the only feasible approach once the network scales to serve a billion people—many of whom are retail users with little to no security awareness. 32. EGLD offers “Sovereign Chains,” letting you effectively clone their chain without heavy development, set up your own validators, and leverage their unlimited scalability. Any blockchain (ETH, BTC, SOL) struggling with scalability, decentralization, or security could run an ultra-fast, scalable, and secure L2 on EGLD’s Sovereign Chain, meeting top enterprise requirements. No one else has really done this. The Sovereign Chain demo achieved astonishing TPS and has an SDK. 33. No downtime since inception. 34. No shard takeover attacks have occurred. 35. Extremely fast—soon 600ms block time will be in place. 36. ESDTs – The best token standard available: fungible, non-fungible, semi-fungible, DeFi assets—everything is native and highly customizable. 37. Top-tier composability of assets and smart contracts. 38. Integrated DNS at protocol level with HeroTags (nicknames) instead of long addresses. 39. Asynchronous calls are supported. 40. Cross-shard transfers, execution, reverts, and calls are seamlessly integrated. 41. The best staking system in the space. Secure Proof of Stake (SPoS) is far more efficient than Proof of Work (PoW). 42. Built-in Delegation and Staking Provider system, with over 125K delegators. 43. Complete support for liquid staked assets, fostering decentralization rather than centralization. 44. TransferRoles for ESDT and other advanced operations. 45. Composable tasks on-chain for more sophisticated DeFi workflows. 46. MultiTransfer and asset execution within one transaction. 47. Re-entrancy protection is built-in by design. 48. Storage for ESDT assets goes beyond a linear approach, optimizing performance. 49. No integer overflows thanks to integrated safeMath operations. 50. Integrated crypto opcodes in the VM, enhancing security and performance. 51. Support for BigFloats, BigInts, and BigDecimals, enabling advanced financial calculations on-chain. 52. No sandwich attacks, plus front-running and MEV protection. 53. Relayed Transactions, simplifying user interactions and fees. 54. Smart Accounts featuring data tries and multiple built-in functions. 55. Generalized Paymaster solutions, enabling flexible fee models. 56. Subscriptions for recurring or automated on-chain payments. 57. Web2-like usability with Web3 functionality, bridging mainstream adoption. 58. StakingV4 for improved decentralization. 59. Enhanced MEV protection rolling out to safeguard users. 60. Parallel execution is coming soon, boosting throughput. 61. 1 million TPS is on the roadmap, targeted for demonstration. 62. 600ms block time is also coming soon. 63. Reduced cross-shard processing is planned to improve efficiency. 64. ZK everywhere (PI²): “prove everything” approach is coming. 65. AsyncV3 is in development for more complex cross-contract interactions. 66. Scalability enhancements for Merkle Tries or a new data model are being explored. 67. Linear storage on the VM is forthcoming. 68. A dynamic language interpreter at the VM is also planned. 69. Rumors suggest that MultiversX (EGLD) is building a “Truth Machine” on their L1—an essential, game-changing tool for AI verification and societal impact. 70. The entire team features individuals with PhDs in mathematics and physics, and many are former engineers at Google, IBM, and similar companies. 71. Over 56% of the network’s supply is staked, showcasing strong community involvement. 72. More than 6,772,347 accounts have been created on the network. 73. A total of 476,627,710 transactions have been processed on-chain without any outages or hacks. 74. EGLD has built a massive ecosystem over time. While not as numerous in project count as Solana, its market cap is ~100x smaller, yet it has far superior tokenomics and technology. The projects that do exist, like Hatom Protocol, are top-tier in UX, security, and advanced features. Hatom will soon introduce USH, a truly high-quality, decentralized stablecoin. 75. On competing chains, automated transactions aren’t easily or cheaply executed, whereas on MultiversX, tools like let you do this for free (with near-zero fees). 76. No other chain combines such a strong team and long-term vision where every product meets extreme security and UX standards like MultiversX does. This is why I see it as the “next Apple” in Web3. 77. MultiversX has a new CMO – Adam Bates, a former CMO at the Cardano Foundation. He was behind the success of Cardano’s huge marketing campaign and has a very good relationship with Charles Hoskinson. Thanks to him, Beniamin Mincu (the founder of MultiversX) was likely introduced, and now they will probably discuss how both blockchains can help each other, as well as any other potential collaborations we don’t yet know about. This is also extremely bullish. #EGLD is undeniably the most Scalable, Advanced, Secure, and User-friendly L1 supercomputer ever created. It’s built to SHAPE THE FUTURE. 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 27/6/2024 - EGLDSqueeze - SUMMARY: HERE IS NO 2ND BEST. EGLD IS ONLY ONE BLOCKCHAIN THAT CAN RULE THEM ALL. ✅ UNLIMITED SCALING ✅ SCARCE AS BTC ✅ PROGRAMMABLE AS ETH ✅ NO DOWNTIME AS SOL ✅ UI/UX OF Apple ✅ SHARDING DONE BEFORE NEAR & TON ✅ BEST WALLET xPortal WITH GUARDIAN Price prediction (NFA|DYOR): My reasoning is that the real market cap as of December 23, 2024...if we take into account the value of other cryptocurrencies such as BTC, SOL, ETH, AVAX, NEAR, TON, Cardano, BNB, XRP, and so forth, plus the existence of meme coins with valuations above 20 billion USD, or even games nobody plays anymore that still have valuations above 800 million shows that EGLD’s current market cap of approximately 942 million USD is incredibly low. From a technological standpoint, user experience, and other relevant aspects, compared to SOL, NEAR, TON, AVAX, and other L1 protocols, EGLD’s market cap should realistically be around 100 billion USD. Therefore, my prediction and investment thesis is a minimum of a 100x increase from its current price (+-SOL marketcap). MultiversX is ready to onboard 1 billion people to the blockchain. From a long-term perspective, it could even reach a market cap of 1 trillion USD, which is roughly half of where BTC is right now. That would be approximately a 1060x gain from the current market cap. 1 EGLD (MultiversX) is for $34 (only 31.4M max supply) think about this. Not financial advice. Again. There is no 2nd best L1. Position yourself where the puck is going, then wait at the goal until the goal gets there Apes together, strong. Ape alone, weak. We Don't Worry. We Just Win. Shape The Future

Daniel Veroc

50,029 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

New car day part three…….I have a new car. This is a long one so grab a coffee and sit down - TLDR there’s more photos in the replies 🤣 and how much I paid is at the bottom of this essay 💷 Many of you guessed correctly, saying it’ll be a W211 E-Class Estate so I apologise if this is a bit anti climatic 😬 Jsl91 🦁🏎🥊 not only guessed the car but the bloody interior colours too! For reference though: It’s a 2007 ‘57’ Mercedes-Benz E320 CDI Elegance Estate which has the later 3.0 V6 CDI and 7G Tronic automatic gearbox fitted. It has a really nice upgraded spec from base spec including soft Nappa, electrically adjustable, memory and heated leather front seats, memory steering column and mirrors, very rare sunroof option, Bi-Xenon Headlights, COMAND APS infotainment upgrade with Bluetooth calling and the 7 seat option which seems odd but fold down perfectly flat as if they are not there. It’s averaged a new owner every 4.25 years which for a 17 year old car I really don’t think is bad, has a very decent MOT History and I have the last 10 years Service History physically documented on paper with the car. Prior to that is apparently with all with main dealer so I need to get them to send me it which will make it a full service history between Main Dealer and independents. Bit of an odd buying experience though, the dealer selling it insisted on picking me up from the Station and knew when I was coming in as I kept him updated - he was 30 mins late, I gave benefit of the doubt and assumed he’d of been having the car cleaned or something. No, it’s actually dirtier than I’ve ever let my cars get and needs a very, very good valet - of which I intend to do tomorrow afternoon myself 🧽 When did it become ok to sell a filthy car? We then drove 15 minutes back to a nondescript area of Wakefield where we pulled up on the side of the road and all of a sudden changed ownership on his phone. He then gave me his bank details and I transferred the money as the car had driven faultlessly on that test drive back to ‘his premises’. The guy was nice enough but it felt like he couldn’t wait to get rid of me, money hit his bank, he gave me the new keeper slip, shook my hand and said nice doing a deal with you, got out and walked off 👀 If I hadn’t done my due diligence I’d of genuinely thought the car was stolen or something. I then taxed the car, set my phone and Bluetooth transmitter up and got on the way home. It is an absolute pleasure to drive in fairness, that 221bhp V6 Diesel is powerful but lazy which suits the car so well. As you can see from the photos it averaged 44mpg on my 126 mile journey home. I stopped at Shell in Boston to fill it up with Diesel, something I can’t imagine I’ll be doing all too often ⛽️ Only other issues I can see is the scratches on the front bumper (I knew about) and there’s a scratch on the bonnet I’m hoping will polish out. It’s also due a service. It has a full set of Davanti Tyres on its tiny 16” Elegance wheels, all of which have tonnes of tread. Headlights could do with a polish maybe too. Oh and I paid £1695.00 for it 🤯 Really looking forward to sticking my dateless 3x3 plate on it and taking on our North Norfolk Coast getaway next week 😊 More photos in the replies below if you’ve gotten this far 😅

Sam Hosier

30,161 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

I finally finished my Rust version of Mario Zechner's (Mario Zechner) excellent Pi Agent, which I made with his blessing and which is called pi_agent_rust. You can get it here: If you're not familiar with Pi, it's a minimalist and extensible agent harness (similar to Claude Code and Codex) and, among other uses, serves as the core agent harness inside the OpenClaw project. I say my Rust "version" instead of "port" because it's really quite different in how it's implemented for it to be called a port. Arguably, the incremental functionality in the implementation was more complex than the rest of the project combined. Still, it provides the same features and functionality as the original, and is proven to be compatible with hundreds of popular extensions to Pi (the conformance harness shows 224 out of 224 extensions working perfectly). But the way it's architected has some major changes. Pi Agent relies on node or bun to provide access to the filesystem and for various other tasks, and that is also how Pi's extension system works. I decided early on that I didn't want to do things that way. Instead, I wanted to integrate that functionality directly into the binary itself; that is, to provide equivalent functionality for everything that would normally be provided by node/bun in the original. I did this for several reasons: one, it's a lot more performant in terms of footprint and latency. On realistic end-to-end large-session workloads (not toy microbenchmarks), pi_agent_rust is now: - 4.95x faster than legacy Node and 2.80x faster than legacy Bun at 1mm-token session scale - 4.32x faster than legacy Node and 2.14x faster than legacy Bun at 5mm-token session scale - ~8x to ~13x lower RSS memory footprint in those same scenarios But the other reason is security and control: by handling everything internally in an end-to-end way, we can do all sorts of clever things to harden the system against insecure or malicious extensions. Those extensions no longer have direct access to the ambient filesystem: they now need to go through pi_agent_rust, and we can analyze extensions carefully before ever running them and also block things that look suspicious at runtime. In practice that means explicit capability-gated hostcalls, with policy/risk/quota enforcement and runtime telemetry/auditability. In order to do all this, I had to effectively build the missing runtime substrate from scratch in Rust, not just translate TypeScript syntax: - define and implement a typed hostcall ABI for extension->host interactions - build native Rust connectors for tool/exec/http/session/ui/events instead of ambient Node/Bun access - implement a compatibility/shim layer so real-world Pi extensions still behave correctly - add capability policy evaluation, runtime risk scoring, per-extension quotas, and audit telemetry on the execution path - wire the whole thing through structured concurrency (asupersync) so cancellation/lifetimes are deterministic and failure handling is explicit - build a conformance + benchmark harness large enough to validate behavior/perf across hundreds of extensions and realistic long-session workloads This was a full re-architecture of the execution model while preserving the Pi workflow and extension ecosystem. And indeed, this aspect of it dwarfs the entire rest of the project in size and complexity. To put hard numbers on that: the extension/runtime/security subsystem alone is now about 86.5k lines of Rust across src/extensions.rs (~48.1k), src/extensions_js.rs (~23.4k), src/extension_dispatcher.rs (~13.4k), and src/extension_index.rs (~1.7k), with roughly 2.5k callable units in just those files. For context, the original Pi coding-agent production code is about 27.4k lines total. So this one subsystem by itself is roughly 3.2x the size of the original harness, which is why calling this a “port” would seriously undersell what had to be built. And on top of that, pi_agent_rust introduces a bunch of genuinely new capabilities beyond the legacy harness, not just a faster core: - Security and enforcement are materially stronger at runtime: capability-gated hostcalls with explicit policy profiles (safe/balanced/permissive), per-extension trust lifecycle (pending -> acknowledged -> trusted -> killed), explicit kill-switch operations, and audited state transitions. - Shell execution mediation is deterministic and argument-aware: rule/feature-based risk scoring plus heredoc AST inspection (dcg_rule_hit, dcg_heredoc_hit) before spawn, instead of relying on coarse deny patterns. - Containment and forensics are first-class: tamper-evident runtime risk ledger tooling (verify/replay/calibrate), unified incident evidence bundles, and forced-compat controls that let you contain issues without disabling the whole extension system. - The extension runtime architecture is native: JS extensions run in embedded QuickJS with typed hostcall boundaries and Rust-native connectors for tool/exec/http/session/ui/events, plus compatibility shims for real-world legacy extensions. - Runtime behavior under load is explicitly engineered: deterministic hostcall reactor mesh, fast-lane vs compat-lane routing, and warm-isolate prewarm handoff for more predictable throughput and latency under contention. - Long-session reliability is upgraded: JSONL v3 sessions with indexed sidecar acceleration and optional SQLite-backed sessions, plus operational controls via --session-durability, --no-migrations, and migrate. - Provider and auth coverage are broader and more operationally explicit: native Anthropic/OpenAI (Chat + Responses)/Gemini/Cohere/Azure/Bedrock/Vertex/Copilot/GitLab plus large OpenAI-compatible routing; pi --list-providers currently shows 90 providers with aliases and required auth env keys. - Auth is not just API keys: OAuth (Anthropic/OpenAI Codex/Gemini CLI/Antigravity/Kimi/Copilot/GitLab plus extension-defined OAuth), AWS credential chains (Bedrock), service-key exchange (SAP AI Core), and bearer-token flows. - Operator tooling is stronger: pi doctor supports scoped checks (config, dirs, auth, shell, sessions, extensions), machine-readable output (--format json|markdown), and safe auto-remediation (--fix). - Extension/package lifecycle workflows are built in: install, remove, update, update-index, search, info, and list. I want to thank Mario for making a great harness and for not telling me to get lost when I asked him if he was OK with me porting it to Rust. I may give him a hard time in jest about not going "full clanker," but that doesn't mean that I don't respect his work a huge amount. PS: There could still be bugs. If you find some, please let me know in GitHub Issues and I'll fix them same day. There's always a tradeoff between perfect and getting stuff out the door and I felt like it was time to release this.

Jeffrey Emanuel

116,929 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Peter Thiel gave a speech in a Hilton in 2010 that holds the keys to unlocking the source of many of America’s most severe problems. Key quote: “The task in this world… where politics has become so broken… is to find a way to escape from it. It’s not a way to fix it.” Palantir is currently tightening its grip around all of our data. Elon Musk is diverting untold billions into a Mars fantasy. All of the anarchist, antidemocratic ideas of the PayPal Mafia and the “Dark Enlightenment”—to use technology as an “escape”—were already well in process 15 years ago. —The internet as “alternate virtual reality” so you don’t have to “constantly convince people.” This is why he funded Satoshi (Bitcoin), MAGA3X (Pizzagate, Q), and pushed Musk to buy Twitter —PayPal (now blockchain/crypto/BTC) was to “overturn the monetary system” —“Escape” now more often referred to as “exit” —“Autonomous countries” now known as the “network state” JD Vance is a full member of the cult of the broligarchs. Unfortunately, this has been a very thorough coup and they have backup. It’s worth really absorbing what the living Antichrist, Peter Thiel, is saying here: “I don't think despair is the only answer. And I don't think, and it's because I don't think politics is the only way to go. And my thinking on this, you know, started to take a turn towards a more optimistic perspective in the mid to late '90s when I got involved in the tech boom in Silicon Valley. I ended up being the co-founder of a company called PayPal where -- and the initial founding vision was that we were going to use technology to change the whole world and basically overturn on the monetary system of the world. And, you know, we can debate on how much it succeeded or how little it succeeded. And there were parts of it that I think have worked, and parts of it were, you know, the jury is still out. But the basic idea was that we could never win an election on getting certain things. Because we were in such a small minority. But maybe you could actually unilaterally change the world without having to constantly convince people and beg people and plead with people who are never going to agree with you through a technological means. And this is where I think technology is this incredible alternative to politics. And, you know, there are a number of different technologies we can outline, but the task in this world where politics has become so broken and so dysfunctional is to find a way to escape from it. It's not a way to fix it. It is a way to escape. And there are, you know, a number of different options. I think the promising one of the 1990s and this last decade has been to escape onto the Internet and to sort of create an alternate virtual reality. Questions, of course, is still how does it intersect with the real world? There are, I think, escaping to outer space is a promise, although I think the space technology is not quite there. So I think that's sort of for the second half of the 21st century. I think we can try to, you know, create autonomous countries on oceans, underwater, all sorts of other spaces. But I think technology is the vehicle for how we should be looking to escape and move beyond politics as we find it today.”

Jim Stewartson, Decelerationist 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇺🇸

156,800 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

$AMD $5 Trillion is Inevitable LT| Agentic AI🧵 Agentic AI is the new $5 Trillion TAM 🚨🚨🚨 This thead will do Comp with $INTC and how to quantify this massive Agentic AI demand spike, and forcing Jensen to rush a CPU design. Global Agentic AI Market size is estimated to be $3-$5Trillion TAM by 2030(McKinsey) Quantifying the demand from agentic AI for AMD involves assessing the broader market growth for agentic systems, their unique computational requirements (particularly for CPUs in orchestration and reasoning tasks), and AMD's positioning very well through products like EPYC processors and partnerships. AMD EPYC Venice is the most superior choice in 2026-2027 for most Agentic AI workloads Agentic AI refers to autonomous AI agents that perform multi-step tasks, involving sequential logic, tool integration, and decision-making workloads that heavily rely on CPUs for handling orchestration, memory management, and context switching, rather than just GPU-parallelized training or batch inference. Agentic AI is often cited as 40-100x more "hungry" than traditional AI due to its continuous, 24/7 operation and complex workflows. This stems from factors like chain-of-thought reasoning (multiple LLM calls per query), API/tool interactions, memory management, and orchestration loops, which can generate 10-100x more tokens and require real-time responsiveness. For example, a single agentic query might trigger 5-20 model inferences, making it 10-20x more compute-intensive than simple chatbots, and the always-on nature compounds this to 40-100x overall. Nvidia's CEO has highlighted this as driving "easily 100x more computation" for inference in agentic/reasoning setups. AMD's EPYC Venice (6th Gen EPYC, codenamed "Venice") and Intel's Xeon 7 Diamond Rapids represent the pinnacle of server CPU technology in 2026, both targeting high-performance data center workloads like AI inference, agentic AI orchestration, cloud computing, and HPC. Venice builds on AMD's Zen 6 architecture, emphasizing core density and efficiency, while Diamond Rapids leverages Intel's Panther Cove P-cores for balanced performance. Both chips adopt similar advancements like 16-channel DDR5 memory and PCIe Gen 6, but differ in core counts, process nodes, and overall design philosophy. Intel has faced acute supply constraints across its Xeon lineup, including legacy nodes (Intel 7/3) and the ramping 18A process for next-gen parts. Intel shortage is expected with lead times up to 6 months or longer. 1. AMD EPYC Venice vs Intel Xeon 7 Diamond Rapids Architecture AMD: Zen 6 chiplet design with 8 CCDs and dual IODs Intel: Panther Cove P-cores; multi-die architecture with 4 compute tiles Core/Thread Count AMD: Up to 256 cores / 512 threads (Zen 6c variant) Intel: Up to 192 cores / 192 threads Process Node AMD: TSMC N2 (2nm) Intel: Intel 18A (1.8nm-class); in-house fab Memory Support AMD: 16-channel DDR5; up to 1.6 TB/s bandwidth. Intel: 16-channel DDR5 ; up to 1.6 TB/s bandwidth I/O and Connectivity AMD: PCIe Gen 6 (up to 128 lanes); twice the CPU-to-GPU bandwidth Intel: PCIe Gen 6 (up to 128 lanes); LGA 9324 socket Power (TDP) AMD: Starting 400-500W, potentially lower due to efficiency gains from TSMC 2nm Intel: Starting 400-500W, as it targets competitive efficiency Performance Projections AMD: Up to 70% uplift vs. 5th Gen Turin (1.7x in multi-threaded/AI tasks) Intel: ~40% faster than Granite Rapids (Xeon 6, 128-core). Lags AMD in per-core perf and 40-50% behind Venice core-for-core comp Target Workloads AMD: AI inference/orchestration, HPC, cloud virtualization. Partnerships Intel: Hyperscale AI, general enterprise. Custom silicon Pricing: AMD: estimated $10k-$20k for top SKUs Intel: estimated $8-$18k Availability: AMD: Significant Ramp H2 2026 due to higher allocation from TSMC Intel: H1-H2 2026 delayed, but trying to catch up Overall: ~Venice's 256 cores provide a 33% edge over Diamond Rapids' 192, making it superior for massively parallel tasks like AI training/inference or virtualization ~TSMC's N2 vs. Intel 18A debates rage on which is "better," but AMD's mature chiplet approach yields better density ( 32 cores/CCD vs. Intel's 48/tile). Venice's redesign reduces latency, aiding agentic AI where CPUs handle orchestration ~ Early projections show Venice widening AMD's lead matching or exceeding Diamond Rapids' perf with fewer watts in multi-threaded benchmarks. Intel's no-SMT design (to prioritize AI) handicaps it vs. AMD's 512 threads, though Clearwater Forest (E-core) could compete in density-focused niches. ~Power & Cooling: Both push above 400-500W, demanding liquid cooling. ~AMD been taking market share now above 40%. AMD EPYC Venice emerges as the superior choice in 2026 for most server workloads. Its higher core/thread count (256/512 vs. 192/192), stronger per-core performance, and architecture optimized for AI-driven tasks (agentic orchestration with GPU integration) provide decisive advantages in throughput, scalability, and efficiency. Projections indicate Venice delivering 1.7x the performance of prior gens while widening the gap over Intel ( 40-70% leads in multi-threaded benchmarks). AMD's fabless model with TSMC ensures reliable scaling, and its ecosystem ( open ROCm) appeals to AI adopters. Intel's Diamond Rapids is competitive in single-threaded enterprise apps and custom hyperscale ( NVLink), with potential fab advantages for supply/security. However, without SMT and lower density, it falls short in core-for-core battles—exposing Intel to another generation of AMD dominance unless 18A yields surprise efficiency gains. For data centers prioritizing raw compute ( AI, HPC), Venice wins; for Intel-centric ecosystems or specialized I/O, Diamond Rapids holds ground. Real benchmarks post-launch will confirm, but logic points to AMD pulling ahead. 2. Market size , Potential Revenue and Supply Global Agentic AI market size is projected to be $3-$5 Trillion by 2030 according to McKinsey, where consensus points to 40-50% CAGR driven by small to large enterprise demand. I also wrote a full thread on how and why Agentic AI is so explosive that AMD will blow all anlaysts estimate for subscribers. Link below if you are interested. AMD's data center segment hit a record $5.4B in Q4 2025 (up 39% YoY), with EPYC shipments ramping due to agentic demand. With 2GW of deployment in H2 2026, AMD AI data center revenue has $40-$50B+ at the lowest or most conservative projection; or Total Revenue in the $77-$94B For FY2026. However, Agentic AI massive demand spike could send EPYC revenue 3x to 4x in the next few years, potentially surpassing MI series GPU demand as enterprises prioritize CPU-dense Rack setups. This is pushing $NVDA Jensen to rush a CPU design and acquired Groq, a new CPU player due to this massive TAM. Noted that this is just popping just in weeks, highlighting we are just so early in this AI Supercycle and the pace of adoption is insane, and clearly productivity will skyrocket. Why? Because Agentic AI is 24/7 Smart AI agent working for you or your businesses is a mad compelling, and it is estimated to be 40-100x more Inference Hugnry! Many experts already said it is impossible to project this kind of Inference Demand. AI CapEx is expected to ramp up even more in 2027-2028-2029 and 2030 as Global Agentic AI is going to scale to $3-$5 Trillion TAM by 2030. The nature of Agentic is driving higher CPU/GPU ratio, with CPUs handling 50-90% of Agentic workflows. For example, The current Helios Rack: 18 compute trays per rack with 72 GPUs + 18 CPUs. The beauty of this $META and $AMD long term partnership is, that it is absolutely flexible to adjust racks to higher CPU rato or equal to service different needs. Helios rack can be easily swap to 2 GPUs 2CPUs or even CPUs only trays for dedicated orchestration/head nodes. You see, the beauty of this open rack-scale is flexibility and evolvability. If Agentic AI demand pushes much higher, AMD should be able to adjust variant trays without abandoning Heilos Rack. We can't talk just about massive Agentic AI demand without talking about the Supply side or TSMC. TSMC, AMD's primary foundry for advanced nodes ( Zen 6/Venice on N2/2nm), is addressing AI-driven shortages through massive expansions. TSMC accelerates fab construction with up to 10 facilities targeted for 2026. TSMC is accelerating its domestic manufacturing expansion, with industry sources indicating that as many as ten fabs could be under construction or preparing to begin operations across Taiwan’s major science parks. TSMC Capex: $52-56B in 2026 (up 37% YoY), with $45B already approved for new/upgraded capacities. 70-80% for advanced processes (2nm/A16), 10-20% for packaging (CoWoS quadrupling to 120-140K wafers/month by late 2026). In addition, Taiwanese companies (led by TSMC) commit to at least $250B in direct investments in US-based advanced semiconductor, AI, and energy production/innovation capacity.Taiwan provides $250B in government credit guarantees to facilitate additional investments and build a full US semiconductor ecosystem (including industrial parks). TSMC completed a second land purchase in Arizona (January 2026) for gigafab scaling, with an additional $100B+ (potentially four more modules) to further expand and qualify for tariff exemptions. AMD with secured 12GW from OpenAI and $META and massive Agentic AI will mean higher priority acess to 20-30% more wafers on TSMC advanced nodes, as TSMC has multi-year agreements with AMD for AI chips. Dr. C. C. Wei, CEO of TSMC quote: "I spend a lot of time in the last three or four months talking to my customer and then customers. Customer. I want to make sure that my customers demand are real. I talk to those cloud service providers, all of them. Their answer is. I'm quite satisfied with their answer. Actually they show me the evidence that the AI really help their business. So they grow their business successfully and he or she in their financial return. So I also double check their financial status. They are very rich." Amid shortages, the US buildout ensures AMD can ramp production of Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs without the constraints hitting competitors like Intel. By diversifying away from Taiwan (85% of advanced nodes today), the agreement mitigates supply disruptions, ensuring stable flows for AMD's chips. Scaling production and securing supply will matter for AMD the most in the next 5-10 years growth. The growth could be 80-100% YoY or higher; or it could be in the 60%. The aggressive TSMC supply ramp is reassuring the higher growth point. Conclusion: AMD stands at a pivotal inflection point in 2026, where the explosive rise of agentic AI demanding 40-100x more inference compute through its 24/7, multi-step orchestration positions the company to potentially triple its EPYC CPU revenue to $45-60B+ by 2028 while scaling Instinct GPUs to tens of billions annually by 2027. Agentic AI demand could push AI CapEx closer to $1 Trillion in 2027, far higher than most estimates. Dr. Lisa Su, AMD's visionary CEO, is masterfully securing supply to harness this massive demand by prioritizing operational execution and deep TSMC collaboration, ensuring readiness for the second-half 2026 AI ramp. Dr. Su has explicitly called out surging EPYC demand for agentic tasks where CPUs power head nodes and traditional workloads alongside GPUs while guiding for data center dominance through proactive capacity planning and partnerships like Nutanix ($150M investment for open agentic platforms) or providing tens of millions CPUs for OpenAI, $META, $ORCL, $AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOGL and others. Her strategy includes multi-year TSMC agreements for advanced nodes (N2 for Venice CPUs and future Instincts), diversifying beyond Taiwan to mitigate risks, and unveiling innovations like the MI455X GPU at CES 2026, which she touted as enabling "the next trillion-dollar market opportunity" in physical AI. Dr. Su's forward-looking vision predicting AI reaching 5 billion users emphasizes "AI everywhere," backed by hardware like Ryzen AI chips, all while declaring demand "going through the roof" and committing to scale without bottlenecks. TSMC's aggressive ramp-up, fueled by $52-56B in 2026 capex (up 37% YoY) and 10+ new fabs across Taiwan, the US (Arizona cluster expanding to 6+ modules with $165B+ investment), Japan, and Europe, provides profound reassurance for AMD's supply stability. The January 2026 US-Taiwan agreement committing $250B in investments and credit guarantees for US reshoring accelerates this, granting tariff relief (15% rates with 1.5-2.5x exemptions) tied to capacity buildouts, enabling TSMC to potentially double output over the decade to meet AI wafer hunger. This translates to 20-30% higher wafer allocations on key nodes, sidestepping Intel-like shortages and empowering Dr. Su's team to deliver on hyperscaler demands without disruption. Ultimately, this synergy cements AMD's leadership in the agentic era, promising sustained growth, $5T+ valuations at scale, and a resilient path forward as AI reshapes the world. This is NOT Financial Advice! Video source: AMD CES 2026

Mike

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