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Should Strategy proactively sell Bitcoin now to protect shareholders later? Kaleo makes the case for selling, and gets pushback Kaleo: "Issuing MSTR is good here. If they were able to just unload a few billion dollars worth of Bitcoin and say the price didn't move way too much, we...

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The Wolf Of All Streets

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46,076 просмотров • 19 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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"The most realistic scenario of us being a forced seller of Bitcoin is in 2028 when $3.5 billion of prefers come due. And even then, we have other options" Strategy CEO Phong Le on what it would actually take for the company to be a forced seller of Bitcoin "We have about $3.5 billion of converts that come due in 2028 with a high strike price, over $400. If at that point Bitcoin has lost a significant amount of its value and our share price is depressed, we would sell the Bitcoin to satisfy the converts" "That's an edge case, because we could also just refinance those converts. We could equitize it. We're talking 2028, two years out" "I don't see any scenario until then that we become a forced seller of Bitcoin. And even then, we have other opportunities and options"
1:06

"The most realistic scenario of us being a forced seller of Bitcoin is in 2028 when $3.5 billion of prefers come due. And even then, we have other options" Strategy CEO Phong Le on what it would actually take for the company to be a forced seller of Bitcoin "We have about $3.5 billion of converts that come due in 2028 with a high strike price, over $400. If at that point Bitcoin has lost a significant amount of its value and our share price is depressed, we would sell the Bitcoin to satisfy the converts" "That's an edge case, because we could also just refinance those converts. We could equitize it. We're talking 2028, two years out" "I don't see any scenario until then that we become a forced seller of Bitcoin. And even then, we have other opportunities and options"

The Wolf Of All Streets

50,719 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

If Bitcoin keeps going down, will MicroStrategy end up like FTX? Pio and Kaleo discuss the future of MicroStrategy. Pio: "Do you realistically think that $MSTR is going to have to sell 50,000 Bitcoin in the next two years?" Kaleo: "More, and I think it's their best option. They have made it their clear mission that they want to increase net Bitcoin, but what does that necessarily do to create value for $MSTR holders?" "I just think it's reckless right now, the way that $MSTR and the other assets are being advertised... MSTR is amplified Bitcoin... it's just a fancy word for saying it's leveraged." "You can also lose a lot more on the way down... they can't get rid of those dividends unless they buy $STRC back... the obligations accrue; they don't go away." "Look at what happened with FTX. Did anybody think that Bitcoin was going to go back down to 16k?... No. As Bitcoin price goes down, the MSTR compression of their multiple continues to go down."
4:40

If Bitcoin keeps going down, will MicroStrategy end up like FTX? Pio and Kaleo discuss the future of MicroStrategy. Pio: "Do you realistically think that $MSTR is going to have to sell 50,000 Bitcoin in the next two years?" Kaleo: "More, and I think it's their best option. They have made it their clear mission that they want to increase net Bitcoin, but what does that necessarily do to create value for $MSTR holders?" "I just think it's reckless right now, the way that $MSTR and the other assets are being advertised... MSTR is amplified Bitcoin... it's just a fancy word for saying it's leveraged." "You can also lose a lot more on the way down... they can't get rid of those dividends unless they buy $STRC back... the obligations accrue; they don't go away." "Look at what happened with FTX. Did anybody think that Bitcoin was going to go back down to 16k?... No. As Bitcoin price goes down, the MSTR compression of their multiple continues to go down."

Fibonacci 🥷

40,183 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Threadguy explains why the market won't let Bitcoin recover while Saylor's still in "If you put a gun to your head and asked what makes a real emphatic bottom for Bitcoin, it's Strategy deleveraging, forced selling of the Bitcoin, and Michael Saylor on trial for financial crimes. That's a bottom right there." "Strategy has $1.7 billion promised annually to the end of time. Out of 5,000 public companies in America, maybe 100 make $1.7 billion in profit a year, and Strategy owes that forever. They're only worth their balance sheet in Bitcoin and they can't sell the Bitcoin. The whole bit is earnings per share, but the only way they earn is by selling more Strategy, and that only works if Bitcoin goes up, which it can't while Saylor's still in. So the market is just saying say uncle."
2:17

Threadguy explains why the market won't let Bitcoin recover while Saylor's still in "If you put a gun to your head and asked what makes a real emphatic bottom for Bitcoin, it's Strategy deleveraging, forced selling of the Bitcoin, and Michael Saylor on trial for financial crimes. That's a bottom right there." "Strategy has $1.7 billion promised annually to the end of time. Out of 5,000 public companies in America, maybe 100 make $1.7 billion in profit a year, and Strategy owes that forever. They're only worth their balance sheet in Bitcoin and they can't sell the Bitcoin. The whole bit is earnings per share, but the only way they earn is by selling more Strategy, and that only works if Bitcoin goes up, which it can't while Saylor's still in. So the market is just saying say uncle."

Kai

52,699 просмотров • 25 дней назад

"It's just complete balance sheet mismanagement" Jeff Dorman on why Strategy is being forced to sell Bitcoin "The market was worried they weren't gonna be able to satisfy the dividend. So they raised about $2 billion and said now you don't have to worry for a year and a half because we have this $2 billion sitting on the balance sheet solely to pay dividends. Everyone breathes a sigh of relief" "Then a month later he takes 1.4 billion of that cash cushion and buys back some of his convertible debt at 92 cents on the dollar, completely the opposite of what he said the cash was for. He retired 2029 maturity debt, which doesn't come due for three more years" "Now that one and a half year cash cushion suddenly fell to four months. He comes out on Monday and says we're actually gonna sell some Bitcoin. It's teasing the market that that's the only choice he has now. That's why Bitcoin's imploding, that's why the stock is imploding"
1:51

"It's just complete balance sheet mismanagement" Jeff Dorman on why Strategy is being forced to sell Bitcoin "The market was worried they weren't gonna be able to satisfy the dividend. So they raised about $2 billion and said now you don't have to worry for a year and a half because we have this $2 billion sitting on the balance sheet solely to pay dividends. Everyone breathes a sigh of relief" "Then a month later he takes 1.4 billion of that cash cushion and buys back some of his convertible debt at 92 cents on the dollar, completely the opposite of what he said the cash was for. He retired 2029 maturity debt, which doesn't come due for three more years" "Now that one and a half year cash cushion suddenly fell to four months. He comes out on Monday and says we're actually gonna sell some Bitcoin. It's teasing the market that that's the only choice he has now. That's why Bitcoin's imploding, that's why the stock is imploding"

Laura Shin

228,176 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Ansem: Zcash is Swiss banking in your pocket “Instead of having to look at different bank accounts and different places to store your wealth, Zcash allows you to have access to that at any point in time and take it with you anywhere” “If you have a billion dollars in Bitcoin and send somebody $100, anybody you sent that to now knows you have a billion dollars in Bitcoin” “If you have a billion dollars in Zcash and send somebody $100, they don’t know how much you have in your actual address” “That’s the core reason I think Zcash differentiates from Bitcoin” “In my opinion, Zcash is the second best store of value behind Bitcoin. Right now it trades at around a $7B market cap, so I think it has a lot of room to do well and a lot of room to grow” “In 2016, Bitcoin was around $200 and now it trades at $80,000. In 2016, Zcash was around the same price it is right now…”
2:41

Ansem: Zcash is Swiss banking in your pocket “Instead of having to look at different bank accounts and different places to store your wealth, Zcash allows you to have access to that at any point in time and take it with you anywhere” “If you have a billion dollars in Bitcoin and send somebody $100, anybody you sent that to now knows you have a billion dollars in Bitcoin” “If you have a billion dollars in Zcash and send somebody $100, they don’t know how much you have in your actual address” “That’s the core reason I think Zcash differentiates from Bitcoin” “In my opinion, Zcash is the second best store of value behind Bitcoin. Right now it trades at around a $7B market cap, so I think it has a lot of room to do well and a lot of room to grow” “In 2016, Bitcoin was around $200 and now it trades at $80,000. In 2016, Zcash was around the same price it is right now…”

Market Bubble

119,513 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Strategy CEO Phong Le lays down the three reasons behind the Bitcoin sale "We did it to inoculate the market. To test our processes. And to give ourselves the opportunity for future tax loss harvesting. It is really that simple" "We did not sell it because we needed to meet our cash dividend obligations. If we did we would have sold a lot more than $2.5 million" "We have $52 billion worth of Bitcoin on our balance sheet. At some point we have to put it to work. Selling less than 1% of 1% was a reasonable place to start"
1:46

Strategy CEO Phong Le lays down the three reasons behind the Bitcoin sale "We did it to inoculate the market. To test our processes. And to give ourselves the opportunity for future tax loss harvesting. It is really that simple" "We did not sell it because we needed to meet our cash dividend obligations. If we did we would have sold a lot more than $2.5 million" "We have $52 billion worth of Bitcoin on our balance sheet. At some point we have to put it to work. Selling less than 1% of 1% was a reasonable place to start"

The Wolf Of All Streets

35,066 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

So, does it matter that Bitcoin seems to be moving away from its cypherpunk roots? Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin Treasuries have taken BTC mainstream. So I asked Saifedean Ammous this very question. His answer might surprise you... 👀👇 "If you have very strong feelings about how people should and shouldn't use Bitcoin, you're in for a rough time." "To be honest, a lot of people project too much onto Bitcoin. Ultimately, it's just a bunch of software and anybody can use it in any way they want. Initially, it's a small subset of people that use it and then they start projecting their values onto it. And then over time, they expect it to continue to abide by that," Ammous said. "If it's a successful technology, it's going to be used by everybody. It's going to be used by small businesses, large businesses, governments, individuals. It's money. Everybody uses money. There are 8.5 billion people on Earth, they all use money and they're all going to continue to use money. And Bitcoin is just the best money." Ultimately, the protocol itself is immune to the financial instruments that TradFi has concocted. If people want to lend against their BTC or create complex financial products, that does not actually impact the underlying network. "The way that the protocol works is that it's completely blind to what you're doing with your coins on the Bitcoin blockchain there is no paper Bitcoin there's no such thing as paper Bitcoin there's only 21 million Bitcoin and every node makes sure of that every 10 minutes and then if somebody who has some of these Bitcoin on their private key decides to sell obligations or financial liabilities referring to that Bitcoin under any condition, that's their choice. It's outside of Bitcoin and it's outside of the realm of other Bitcoin users being able to say this is right or wrong and this should happen or shouldn't happen. People are going to do whatever they want with the Bitcoin, including selling access to it or exposure to it in all kinds of different ways. And if you don't like it, you don't buy it, you can stack your own Bitcoin." You can find the full interview for Cointelegraph in the 🧵. If you enjoyed this content, please like 🧡, retweet 🔁 and follow me 👋!
1:57

So, does it matter that Bitcoin seems to be moving away from its cypherpunk roots? Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin Treasuries have taken BTC mainstream. So I asked Saifedean Ammous this very question. His answer might surprise you... 👀👇 "If you have very strong feelings about how people should and shouldn't use Bitcoin, you're in for a rough time." "To be honest, a lot of people project too much onto Bitcoin. Ultimately, it's just a bunch of software and anybody can use it in any way they want. Initially, it's a small subset of people that use it and then they start projecting their values onto it. And then over time, they expect it to continue to abide by that," Ammous said. "If it's a successful technology, it's going to be used by everybody. It's going to be used by small businesses, large businesses, governments, individuals. It's money. Everybody uses money. There are 8.5 billion people on Earth, they all use money and they're all going to continue to use money. And Bitcoin is just the best money." Ultimately, the protocol itself is immune to the financial instruments that TradFi has concocted. If people want to lend against their BTC or create complex financial products, that does not actually impact the underlying network. "The way that the protocol works is that it's completely blind to what you're doing with your coins on the Bitcoin blockchain there is no paper Bitcoin there's no such thing as paper Bitcoin there's only 21 million Bitcoin and every node makes sure of that every 10 minutes and then if somebody who has some of these Bitcoin on their private key decides to sell obligations or financial liabilities referring to that Bitcoin under any condition, that's their choice. It's outside of Bitcoin and it's outside of the realm of other Bitcoin users being able to say this is right or wrong and this should happen or shouldn't happen. People are going to do whatever they want with the Bitcoin, including selling access to it or exposure to it in all kinds of different ways. And if you don't like it, you don't buy it, you can stack your own Bitcoin." You can find the full interview for Cointelegraph in the 🧵. If you enjoyed this content, please like 🧡, retweet 🔁 and follow me 👋!

Gareth Jenkinson

34,417 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

Vinny Lingham on exactly how the MSTR empire could crash step by step "The moment MSTR trades at a discount he cannot raise more cash. He is locked out. He cannot sell MSTR. He cannot sell STRC. Then he starts running out of cash. Call it nine months, eight months, seven months" "The market prices this in well in advance. The biggest buyer of Bitcoin is being removed. People selling Bitcoin are going to push the price down" "There is a void that forms in the market. The person who has been providing liquidity for years is no longer providing it. The price of Bitcoin goes into a deeper bear market. And then he has to sell Bitcoin to pay the interest on the preferreds"
1:32

Vinny Lingham on exactly how the MSTR empire could crash step by step "The moment MSTR trades at a discount he cannot raise more cash. He is locked out. He cannot sell MSTR. He cannot sell STRC. Then he starts running out of cash. Call it nine months, eight months, seven months" "The market prices this in well in advance. The biggest buyer of Bitcoin is being removed. People selling Bitcoin are going to push the price down" "There is a void that forms in the market. The person who has been providing liquidity for years is no longer providing it. The price of Bitcoin goes into a deeper bear market. And then he has to sell Bitcoin to pay the interest on the preferreds"

Laura Shin

98,022 просмотров • 24 дней назад

Strategy CEO: May sell Bitcoin for long-term shareholder value On May 28, 2026, during an interview with Fox Business, Strategy CEO Phong Le Phong Le stated that while the company's long-term philosophy is to aggregate Bitcoin, they may make week-to-week or day-to-day decisions to sell if it is accretive to shareholders in the long term. He mentioned that utilizing unrealized tax losses due to Bitcoin's volatility for tax planning is a reasonable motive for such sales. Phong Le expressed that despite potential sales at some point, the company will ultimately net increase its overall Bitcoin holdings and Bitcoin per share.
0:48

Strategy CEO: May sell Bitcoin for long-term shareholder value On May 28, 2026, during an interview with Fox Business, Strategy CEO Phong Le Phong Le stated that while the company's long-term philosophy is to aggregate Bitcoin, they may make week-to-week or day-to-day decisions to sell if it is accretive to shareholders in the long term. He mentioned that utilizing unrealized tax losses due to Bitcoin's volatility for tax planning is a reasonable motive for such sales. Phong Le expressed that despite potential sales at some point, the company will ultimately net increase its overall Bitcoin holdings and Bitcoin per share.

Wu Blockchain

17,350 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

"He's changed the language to he'll never be a net seller. But how do you define that? Because if it's over the last five years, you can sell 800,000 Bitcoin and still be a net buyer" Glenn Cameron on Saylor's shift in language around selling Bitcoin "He made it crystal clear for many years that they would never sell Bitcoin. I've got a list of many, many quotes. He used to say things like sell your kidney to prevent selling your Bitcoin" "Of late he's changed the language to he'll never be a net seller. So he'll be a net buyer. It's a bit Orwellian when you change these things"
1:02

"He's changed the language to he'll never be a net seller. But how do you define that? Because if it's over the last five years, you can sell 800,000 Bitcoin and still be a net buyer" Glenn Cameron on Saylor's shift in language around selling Bitcoin "He made it crystal clear for many years that they would never sell Bitcoin. I've got a list of many, many quotes. He used to say things like sell your kidney to prevent selling your Bitcoin" "Of late he's changed the language to he'll never be a net seller. So he'll be a net buyer. It's a bit Orwellian when you change these things"

Laura Shin

13,411 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Easy says he's 100% out of Bitcoin because Strategy will keep selling it to pay their dividend "This is the most bearish thing. So last night I sold my Bitcoin. I was holding a good amount of coins, I'm completely out of Bitcoin" "100% out of Bitcoin, I hold no Bitcoin right now, zero dollars of Bitcoin. And yeah, I can miss the move. This is so incredibly, beyond bearish, I cannot emphasize how bearish this is" "They have 32 years of dividend coverage, which means they're comfortable continuing to just sell Bitcoin. That's 55 billion at current prices" "Bitcoin is a volatile asset that they're paying dividends with to fund $STRC, and STRC is trading at $90 right now when it's supposed to be pegged to $100. This whole shenanigan is very bad for Bitcoin, because now you have overhang"
1:36

Easy says he's 100% out of Bitcoin because Strategy will keep selling it to pay their dividend "This is the most bearish thing. So last night I sold my Bitcoin. I was holding a good amount of coins, I'm completely out of Bitcoin" "100% out of Bitcoin, I hold no Bitcoin right now, zero dollars of Bitcoin. And yeah, I can miss the move. This is so incredibly, beyond bearish, I cannot emphasize how bearish this is" "They have 32 years of dividend coverage, which means they're comfortable continuing to just sell Bitcoin. That's 55 billion at current prices" "Bitcoin is a volatile asset that they're paying dividends with to fund $STRC, and STRC is trading at $90 right now when it's supposed to be pegged to $100. This whole shenanigan is very bad for Bitcoin, because now you have overhang"

Casper

60,541 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

"All the doomsayers assumed he had no access to capital markets, and that if he sold his Bitcoin, Bitcoin would plummet like a rock. In two weeks he's disproven the entirety of the mega bear case" Dave on how Saylor quietly dismantled the entire bear case in two weeks "The market cares about two things. One, what's going to be the value of their Bitcoin reserve, and two, does he have access to capital markets" "What have we learned the last two weeks? We've learned that he could sell Bitcoin and the price could rise and go up. And he's not even buying. And we learned that he could access capital markets without touching Bitcoin and raise cash if he needs to" "Basically what he's done in the last two weeks is disproven the entirety of the mega bear case, the disastrous circle, the flush down the drain"
0:44

"All the doomsayers assumed he had no access to capital markets, and that if he sold his Bitcoin, Bitcoin would plummet like a rock. In two weeks he's disproven the entirety of the mega bear case" Dave on how Saylor quietly dismantled the entire bear case in two weeks "The market cares about two things. One, what's going to be the value of their Bitcoin reserve, and two, does he have access to capital markets" "What have we learned the last two weeks? We've learned that he could sell Bitcoin and the price could rise and go up. And he's not even buying. And we learned that he could access capital markets without touching Bitcoin and raise cash if he needs to" "Basically what he's done in the last two weeks is disproven the entirety of the mega bear case, the disastrous circle, the flush down the drain"

The Wolf Of All Streets

57,587 просмотров • 7 дней назад

Michael Saylor talked about not selling Bitcoin for years now he just signed off on selling up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin to build a USD reserve and $MSTR sits on one of the biggest unrealized losses in history at $13 billion is $MSTR going bankrupt?
1:13

Michael Saylor talked about not selling Bitcoin for years now he just signed off on selling up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin to build a USD reserve and $MSTR sits on one of the biggest unrealized losses in history at $13 billion is $MSTR going bankrupt?

Ashley

58,330 просмотров • 20 дней назад

. Michael Saylor explains why Strategy's real business isn't Bitcoin - it's selling credit to people who want the upside without the bumpy ride "We're like a reserve bank. We have a reserve asset - Bitcoin. We will sell credit. We are stripping the performance and the risk off of the bitcoin." "Bitcoin's got 40 vol and it's got high performance. But most of the world wants zero vol. What they want is a bank account that pays them 10 or 11%." "For every dollar of equity capital of Bitcoin that we have - digital capital - you can create 10 to $0.20 of credit. We've sold about $10 billion of credit. We'll create $20 billion of digital credit over the next year, then grow that 30 to 50% a year."
2:38

. Michael Saylor explains why Strategy's real business isn't Bitcoin - it's selling credit to people who want the upside without the bumpy ride "We're like a reserve bank. We have a reserve asset - Bitcoin. We will sell credit. We are stripping the performance and the risk off of the bitcoin." "Bitcoin's got 40 vol and it's got high performance. But most of the world wants zero vol. What they want is a bank account that pays them 10 or 11%." "For every dollar of equity capital of Bitcoin that we have - digital capital - you can create 10 to $0.20 of credit. We've sold about $10 billion of credit. We'll create $20 billion of digital credit over the next year, then grow that 30 to 50% a year."

MR SHIFT 🦁

34,055 просмотров • 28 дней назад

Strategy sold 3,588 BTC last week. That's 112x more than the 32 BTC they sold a few weeks ago (which freaked out the market). Here's what's happening and why they are doing this... 1. Last week = Strategy sold Last week, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC and used all of the proceeds ($216m) to fund dividend payments on their suite of preferred equities. Q2 dividend payments for STRF, STRK, STRD, and STRE... and June dividends for STRC. Notably, BTC price opened last week at $59.5k. Strategy sold 3,588 BTC over the course of the week, yet BTC price went up to $63.5k. 2. The bigger picture = Strategy is NET buying Strategy bought 85,296 BTC in Q2. Their combined selling for Q2 was 3,620 BTC (32 + 3,588). In other words, they bought 22.5x more BTC in Q2 than they sold. (For 2026 YTD numbers, Strategy has bought ~175k BTC and sold 3.6k BTC. That's a 48x ratio.) 3. The message in advance Weeks ago, Saylor explained what they are doing, in an interview with Michaël van de Poppe (see clip) "On occasion, we'll buy 20 Bitcoin & we'll sell 1 Bitcoin... Then the credit investors will give us enough to buy 20 more Bitcoin." Saylor further explained the strategic rationale of selling Bitcoin... "Our credit investors expect that we're going to support the credit dividend and pay it (and our asset is BTC)... 'will you sell some Bitcoin to pay us the money?' They expect me to say yes, because if I'm not going to pay the dividend, they're not going to buy the credit & the credit agency won't rate the credit." 4. What Strategy is doing Strategy is showing the market that they can and will sell BTC. They are doing this to gain access to more credit market capital... so that they can buy much more BTC. Saylor has recently asserted that it's important to "buy more Bitcoin than you sell." This is that in action. In Q2, they bought 85k BTC. They then used 3.5k BTC to fund the dividends on the Digital Credit that enabled them to buy 85k BTC. They bought 22.5 and sold 1. 5. What to expect next Saylor said they will "inoculate the market" by selling a little BTC. This is the second dose of inoculation. They will keep doing it until the market expects it and no longer reacts to it. They are not dumping their BTC treasury strategy for dollars. That is the click-bait headline for the uninformed. What they are telling you is that they plan to sell 1 BTC so they can buy 20 BTC. Over and over.
1:24

Strategy sold 3,588 BTC last week. That's 112x more than the 32 BTC they sold a few weeks ago (which freaked out the market). Here's what's happening and why they are doing this... 1. Last week = Strategy sold Last week, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC and used all of the proceeds ($216m) to fund dividend payments on their suite of preferred equities. Q2 dividend payments for STRF, STRK, STRD, and STRE... and June dividends for STRC. Notably, BTC price opened last week at $59.5k. Strategy sold 3,588 BTC over the course of the week, yet BTC price went up to $63.5k. 2. The bigger picture = Strategy is NET buying Strategy bought 85,296 BTC in Q2. Their combined selling for Q2 was 3,620 BTC (32 + 3,588). In other words, they bought 22.5x more BTC in Q2 than they sold. (For 2026 YTD numbers, Strategy has bought ~175k BTC and sold 3.6k BTC. That's a 48x ratio.) 3. The message in advance Weeks ago, Saylor explained what they are doing, in an interview with Michaël van de Poppe (see clip) "On occasion, we'll buy 20 Bitcoin & we'll sell 1 Bitcoin... Then the credit investors will give us enough to buy 20 more Bitcoin." Saylor further explained the strategic rationale of selling Bitcoin... "Our credit investors expect that we're going to support the credit dividend and pay it (and our asset is BTC)... 'will you sell some Bitcoin to pay us the money?' They expect me to say yes, because if I'm not going to pay the dividend, they're not going to buy the credit & the credit agency won't rate the credit." 4. What Strategy is doing Strategy is showing the market that they can and will sell BTC. They are doing this to gain access to more credit market capital... so that they can buy much more BTC. Saylor has recently asserted that it's important to "buy more Bitcoin than you sell." This is that in action. In Q2, they bought 85k BTC. They then used 3.5k BTC to fund the dividends on the Digital Credit that enabled them to buy 85k BTC. They bought 22.5 and sold 1. 5. What to expect next Saylor said they will "inoculate the market" by selling a little BTC. This is the second dose of inoculation. They will keep doing it until the market expects it and no longer reacts to it. They are not dumping their BTC treasury strategy for dollars. That is the click-bait headline for the uninformed. What they are telling you is that they plan to sell 1 BTC so they can buy 20 BTC. Over and over.

Jesse Myers

168,503 просмотров • 13 дней назад

Ansem breaks down the Saylor situation "He sold 32 Bitcoin. For $2.5 million... but how much did it actually cost him?" "He lost $8 billion on a $2 million sale." "Saylor was like 'We're gonna sell Bitcoin just a little bit to ease people's concerns'... and people were like, 'what the fuck? Why are you selling?' 'Cause he never sells."
1:52

Ansem breaks down the Saylor situation "He sold 32 Bitcoin. For $2.5 million... but how much did it actually cost him?" "He lost $8 billion on a $2 million sale." "Saylor was like 'We're gonna sell Bitcoin just a little bit to ease people's concerns'... and people were like, 'what the fuck? Why are you selling?' 'Cause he never sells."

Market Bubble

55,391 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.
11:54

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

Michael Saylor Explains Why He May Sell Bitcoin Strategy founder Michael Saylor Michael Saylor said in a May 9 interview with Bonnie Blockchain that if the company needs to sell a small amount of Bitcoin, it would be to realize capital gains and pay STRC credit dividends. He compared the model to real estate development: raising capital through credit instruments, buying an asset, and later monetizing it through a sale or refinancing after it appreciates. Responding to Peter Schiff's "Ponzi scheme" criticism, Saylor said the more accurate principle is to "never be a net seller of Bitcoin." At this stage, even if Strategy sells 1 Bitcoin, it would buy 10 to 20 at the same time.
3:25

Michael Saylor Explains Why He May Sell Bitcoin Strategy founder Michael Saylor Michael Saylor said in a May 9 interview with Bonnie Blockchain that if the company needs to sell a small amount of Bitcoin, it would be to realize capital gains and pay STRC credit dividends. He compared the model to real estate development: raising capital through credit instruments, buying an asset, and later monetizing it through a sale or refinancing after it appreciates. Responding to Peter Schiff's "Ponzi scheme" criticism, Saylor said the more accurate principle is to "never be a net seller of Bitcoin." At this stage, even if Strategy sells 1 Bitcoin, it would buy 10 to 20 at the same time.

Wu Blockchain

12,629 просмотров • 1 месяц назад