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SIGNAL VS NOISE: WHY OIL KEEPS FALLING ON REAL ESCALATION Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, just delivered a blunt weekly update that cuts through the daily chaos. In a market drowning in headlines, he argues the real danger is not the noise—it is the structural...

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15,502 次观看 • 19 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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CHINA FORFEITS 450 MILLION BARRELS IN ONE MONTH: WHY OIL PRICES ARE CRASHING DESPITE RECORD INVENTORY DRAWS Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, revealed the single biggest reason oil prices have collapsed despite record-low inventories. China quietly slashed its oil imports by 4.9 million barrels per day in June alone, forfeiting nearly 450 million barrels and draining its own hidden stocks. This massive move has temporarily masked the true tightness in the physical market and created one of the largest disconnects between fundamentals and price in decades. The result is oil trading in the high 60s while the real balance sheet screams much higher. THE INVENTORY REALITY CHECK ➡️ Global oil inventories are at the lowest levels ever seen for this time of year. ➡️ We have moved from a 177 million barrel surplus before the war to a 141 million barrel deficit relative to the five-year average. ➡️ Total inventory draws since the conflict began reach 430 million barrels, creating a 508 million barrel swing compared to last year. ➡️ US commercial oil inventories now sit at their lowest level since at least 2016. THE PRODUCT SHORTAGE SIGNAL ➡️ Gasoline and distillate stocks show clear shortages in key regions. ➡️ Refinery crack spreads for gasoline and diesel have hit all-time highs, up 182 percent year to date. ➡️ These extreme margins prove strong underlying product demand that contradicts the weak price action. THE STRATEGIC RESERVE FLOOR ➡️ US strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to 325 million barrels. ➡️ That is the lowest level since June of 1983. ➡️ Advisers close to the issue see 300 million barrels as a practical floor the market cannot breach without serious consequences. THE CHINA STOCKPILE DRAIN ➡️ China cut oil imports by a staggering 4.9 million barrels per day in June. ➡️ They have forfeited nearly 450 million barrels of imports in a single month, drawing down invisible domestic stocks. ➡️ Yet every mobility indicator from flights to road traffic shows demand remains very strong. ➡️ This buying behavior is unsustainable and the return of Chinese demand will expose the real tightness. THE TEMPORARY SUPPLY SURGE ➡️ Post-truce tanker traffic out of the Strait has surged to about 10 ships per day. ➡️ Roughly 140 million barrels of previously sanctioned Iranian oil are now accessible to the market. ➡️ Still, 9.4 million barrels per day of regional production remains shut in across the Middle East. ➡️ The market is absorbing a short-term flood that analysts expect will fade within one to two months. THE FINANCIAL MARKET BLIND SPOT ➡️ Speculative net length in oil has collapsed back to pre-war levels. ➡️ The paper market is pricing oil as if the anticipated glut from before the conflict is still here. ➡️ Physical fundamentals point to an implied fair value of 130 to 140 dollars per barrel. THE ADMINISTRATION RESPONSE ➡️ Vice President JD Vance stated the goal is to refill the world's oil economy and restock supplies. "What the president has told us to do is to use this to sort of refill the world's oil economy to refill some stocks and then see where the hand is." ➡️ The timing of the truce announcement right before the market open showed clear concern over energy price impacts ahead of the midterms. THE BOTTOM LINE The oil market is far tighter than current prices suggest because China temporarily drained its stocks and a post-truce supply surge is hitting all at once. Once those barrels are absorbed and China returns as a buyer, the real shortage will become impossible to ignore. Energy stocks are already discounting around 60 dollar oil while the marginal cost of new supply sits near 70 dollars. The rebound in oil prices is closer than the market thinks. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilShortage #ChinaOil #InventoryCrisis #EnergyMarkets #OilPrices #MarketRebound #GeopoliticalOil
1:43

CHINA FORFEITS 450 MILLION BARRELS IN ONE MONTH: WHY OIL PRICES ARE CRASHING DESPITE RECORD INVENTORY DRAWS Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, revealed the single biggest reason oil prices have collapsed despite record-low inventories. China quietly slashed its oil imports by 4.9 million barrels per day in June alone, forfeiting nearly 450 million barrels and draining its own hidden stocks. This massive move has temporarily masked the true tightness in the physical market and created one of the largest disconnects between fundamentals and price in decades. The result is oil trading in the high 60s while the real balance sheet screams much higher. THE INVENTORY REALITY CHECK ➡️ Global oil inventories are at the lowest levels ever seen for this time of year. ➡️ We have moved from a 177 million barrel surplus before the war to a 141 million barrel deficit relative to the five-year average. ➡️ Total inventory draws since the conflict began reach 430 million barrels, creating a 508 million barrel swing compared to last year. ➡️ US commercial oil inventories now sit at their lowest level since at least 2016. THE PRODUCT SHORTAGE SIGNAL ➡️ Gasoline and distillate stocks show clear shortages in key regions. ➡️ Refinery crack spreads for gasoline and diesel have hit all-time highs, up 182 percent year to date. ➡️ These extreme margins prove strong underlying product demand that contradicts the weak price action. THE STRATEGIC RESERVE FLOOR ➡️ US strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to 325 million barrels. ➡️ That is the lowest level since June of 1983. ➡️ Advisers close to the issue see 300 million barrels as a practical floor the market cannot breach without serious consequences. THE CHINA STOCKPILE DRAIN ➡️ China cut oil imports by a staggering 4.9 million barrels per day in June. ➡️ They have forfeited nearly 450 million barrels of imports in a single month, drawing down invisible domestic stocks. ➡️ Yet every mobility indicator from flights to road traffic shows demand remains very strong. ➡️ This buying behavior is unsustainable and the return of Chinese demand will expose the real tightness. THE TEMPORARY SUPPLY SURGE ➡️ Post-truce tanker traffic out of the Strait has surged to about 10 ships per day. ➡️ Roughly 140 million barrels of previously sanctioned Iranian oil are now accessible to the market. ➡️ Still, 9.4 million barrels per day of regional production remains shut in across the Middle East. ➡️ The market is absorbing a short-term flood that analysts expect will fade within one to two months. THE FINANCIAL MARKET BLIND SPOT ➡️ Speculative net length in oil has collapsed back to pre-war levels. ➡️ The paper market is pricing oil as if the anticipated glut from before the conflict is still here. ➡️ Physical fundamentals point to an implied fair value of 130 to 140 dollars per barrel. THE ADMINISTRATION RESPONSE ➡️ Vice President JD Vance stated the goal is to refill the world's oil economy and restock supplies. "What the president has told us to do is to use this to sort of refill the world's oil economy to refill some stocks and then see where the hand is." ➡️ The timing of the truce announcement right before the market open showed clear concern over energy price impacts ahead of the midterms. THE BOTTOM LINE The oil market is far tighter than current prices suggest because China temporarily drained its stocks and a post-truce supply surge is hitting all at once. Once those barrels are absorbed and China returns as a buyer, the real shortage will become impossible to ignore. Energy stocks are already discounting around 60 dollar oil while the marginal cost of new supply sits near 70 dollars. The rebound in oil prices is closer than the market thinks. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilShortage #ChinaOil #InventoryCrisis #EnergyMarkets #OilPrices #MarketRebound #GeopoliticalOil

Mark

81,081 次观看 • 1 个月前

OIL AT $100 BUT $177 SPIKE INCOMING: NUTTALL'S HISTORIC WARNING Oil expert Eric Nuttall just delivered a sobering update. Middle East production has collapsed by 14 million barrels per day and global inventories are drawing at an eye-watering pace. Yet the market remains shockingly apathetic even as physical shortages are already appearing in Africa, Europe, and Australia. THE SUPPLY SHOCK OF A LIFETIME ➡️ Middle Eastern output is down 14 million barrels per day with OPEC exports slashed by 11 to 12 million. ➡️ That means 360 million barrels forfeited every single month—production gone forever. ➡️ The biggest SPR release in history is only making the imbalance worse. THE INVENTORY NIGHTMARE ➡️ Global oil inventories are racing toward all-time lows. ➡️ We have already lost 700 million barrels. ➡️ Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened tomorrow the world would still lose 1.5 billion barrels total. ➡️ The IRGC is simply waiting Trump out while the problem worsens exponentially. THE PHYSICAL SHORTAGES BEGIN ➡️ Africa is seeing gas station owners murdered because pumps have run dry. ➡️ London Heathrow is facing jet fuel crisis after 60-plus days of disrupted imports. ➡️ Australia is scrambling for diesel following a refinery fire and China cutting exports. THE LIMITED FIXES ➡️ US shale production peaked in November last year—the best days are behind us. ➡️ UAE exiting OPEC adds at most 500 to 800 thousand barrels per day of hidden capacity after accounting for prior cheating. ➡️ Non-OPEC production is peaking this year. THE PRICE DISCOVERY AHEAD ➡️ Only way to balance this historic mismatch is massive demand destruction equivalent to COVID levels. ➡️ Historical math shows oil consuming 5.5 percent of global GDP forces that outcome. ➡️ That number lands at $177 per barrel. ➡️ New realistic floor is now $80 to $100 plus a political risk premium. THE BOTTOM LINE Eric Nuttall feels like the researcher in Wuhan in January 2020—he sees exactly what is coming while the market refuses to look. Complacency is ending in days or weeks as the gravity of this imbalance finally breaks through. This is the sound of the biggest energy supply crunch in history finally waking everyone up. HT: YouTube Trevor Rose #OilCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyShortage #$177Oil #NuttallWarning #SupplyCrunch #OilMarket
0:36

OIL AT $100 BUT $177 SPIKE INCOMING: NUTTALL'S HISTORIC WARNING Oil expert Eric Nuttall just delivered a sobering update. Middle East production has collapsed by 14 million barrels per day and global inventories are drawing at an eye-watering pace. Yet the market remains shockingly apathetic even as physical shortages are already appearing in Africa, Europe, and Australia. THE SUPPLY SHOCK OF A LIFETIME ➡️ Middle Eastern output is down 14 million barrels per day with OPEC exports slashed by 11 to 12 million. ➡️ That means 360 million barrels forfeited every single month—production gone forever. ➡️ The biggest SPR release in history is only making the imbalance worse. THE INVENTORY NIGHTMARE ➡️ Global oil inventories are racing toward all-time lows. ➡️ We have already lost 700 million barrels. ➡️ Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened tomorrow the world would still lose 1.5 billion barrels total. ➡️ The IRGC is simply waiting Trump out while the problem worsens exponentially. THE PHYSICAL SHORTAGES BEGIN ➡️ Africa is seeing gas station owners murdered because pumps have run dry. ➡️ London Heathrow is facing jet fuel crisis after 60-plus days of disrupted imports. ➡️ Australia is scrambling for diesel following a refinery fire and China cutting exports. THE LIMITED FIXES ➡️ US shale production peaked in November last year—the best days are behind us. ➡️ UAE exiting OPEC adds at most 500 to 800 thousand barrels per day of hidden capacity after accounting for prior cheating. ➡️ Non-OPEC production is peaking this year. THE PRICE DISCOVERY AHEAD ➡️ Only way to balance this historic mismatch is massive demand destruction equivalent to COVID levels. ➡️ Historical math shows oil consuming 5.5 percent of global GDP forces that outcome. ➡️ That number lands at $177 per barrel. ➡️ New realistic floor is now $80 to $100 plus a political risk premium. THE BOTTOM LINE Eric Nuttall feels like the researcher in Wuhan in January 2020—he sees exactly what is coming while the market refuses to look. Complacency is ending in days or weeks as the gravity of this imbalance finally breaks through. This is the sound of the biggest energy supply crunch in history finally waking everyone up. HT: YouTube Trevor Rose #OilCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyShortage #$177Oil #NuttallWarning #SupplyCrunch #OilMarket

Mark

36,647 次观看 • 3 个月前

BIGGEST ENERGY CRISIS IN HISTORY: $150 OIL IN WEEKS AS INVENTORIES PLUNGE TO RECORD LOWS Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, delivered a sobering message in his Bloomberg TV interview. We are living through the biggest energy crisis anyone alive has ever seen — yet most of the world still has no idea what is coming. With Middle East production slashed by 14 million barrels per day, the safety buffer is gone and inventories are about to hit all-time lows. THE UNPRECEDENTED SHORTAGE ➡️ Middle Eastern production is down a staggering 14 million barrels per day. ➡️ Already lost 650 million barrels of production — and that climbs to 1.5 billion even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow. ➡️ The last ships that left before closure have now unloaded, leaving zero safety buffer. THE INVENTORY COLLAPSE ➡️ US diesel stocks fell 4% in a single week while gasoline dropped 3% outside driving season. ➡️ Global oil inventories are heading straight to all-time record lows by the end of May. ➡️ Complacency rules because the human mind simply cannot grasp something this enormous. THE INEVITABLE PRICE SPIKE ➡️ Demand must be rationed more severely than during COVID — and price is the only way to do it. ➡️ Expect oil well in excess of $150 per barrel in the coming days or weeks. ➡️ Physical markets are already trading at these brutal levels. THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK ➡️ Nuttall went 100% oil weighted back in January — his fund is already up 44%. ➡️ Once the Strait reopens he still sees an $80 floor with demand boosted 40% from restocking depleted inventories and SPRs. THE BOTTOM LINE Eric Nuttall has spent 25 years in this market and calls this the biggest disruption of his lifetime. The world is sleepwalking into a supply shock that will force prices higher faster than anyone expects. This is the calm before the storm hits hard. #EnergyCrisis #150Oil #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #RecordLowInventories #OilPrices #EnergyShock
5:36

BIGGEST ENERGY CRISIS IN HISTORY: $150 OIL IN WEEKS AS INVENTORIES PLUNGE TO RECORD LOWS Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, delivered a sobering message in his Bloomberg TV interview. We are living through the biggest energy crisis anyone alive has ever seen — yet most of the world still has no idea what is coming. With Middle East production slashed by 14 million barrels per day, the safety buffer is gone and inventories are about to hit all-time lows. THE UNPRECEDENTED SHORTAGE ➡️ Middle Eastern production is down a staggering 14 million barrels per day. ➡️ Already lost 650 million barrels of production — and that climbs to 1.5 billion even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow. ➡️ The last ships that left before closure have now unloaded, leaving zero safety buffer. THE INVENTORY COLLAPSE ➡️ US diesel stocks fell 4% in a single week while gasoline dropped 3% outside driving season. ➡️ Global oil inventories are heading straight to all-time record lows by the end of May. ➡️ Complacency rules because the human mind simply cannot grasp something this enormous. THE INEVITABLE PRICE SPIKE ➡️ Demand must be rationed more severely than during COVID — and price is the only way to do it. ➡️ Expect oil well in excess of $150 per barrel in the coming days or weeks. ➡️ Physical markets are already trading at these brutal levels. THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK ➡️ Nuttall went 100% oil weighted back in January — his fund is already up 44%. ➡️ Once the Strait reopens he still sees an $80 floor with demand boosted 40% from restocking depleted inventories and SPRs. THE BOTTOM LINE Eric Nuttall has spent 25 years in this market and calls this the biggest disruption of his lifetime. The world is sleepwalking into a supply shock that will force prices higher faster than anyone expects. This is the calm before the storm hits hard. #EnergyCrisis #150Oil #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #RecordLowInventories #OilPrices #EnergyShock

Mark

193,179 次观看 • 3 个月前

VIOLENT PRICE SIGNAL AHEAD: WHY $150 OIL IS NOW THE ONLY PATH TO BALANCE Energy strategist Eric Nuttall of ninepoint Energy Strategies just delivered his long-awaited weekly update. Instead of relief, the only measurable change has been the relentless drain of nearly 200 million barrels of forfeited production while the world clings to hope. The data from Kepler and the warnings from Exxon and Chevron reveal a structural crisis that tweets cannot fix. THE STRAIT REALITY CHECK ➡️ Just 23 ships are getting through the Strait of Hormuz each day compared to the normal baseline of 40 to 45. ➡️ Daily claims of 35 to 40 ships passing were proven false when actual tracking data showed only two tankers making the transit. ➡️ Leading shipping companies like Maersk have abandoned the route completely because the risk outweighs any reward. THE INVENTORY FREEFALL ➡️ Global inventories visible and invisible are now falling at a rate of 6 to 8 million barrels per day. ➡️ Almost 200 million barrels have already been sucked out of the system in just the past two weeks. ➡️ The cumulative forfeited production has already exceeded one billion barrels and is tracking toward two billion under even optimistic scenarios. THE EXPERT ALARM ➡️ Exxon and Chevron have now corroborated the numbers and stated the market is heading into the danger zone within the next few weeks. ➡️ Inventories are approaching the point where refineries hit tank bottoms and can no longer operate without cutting demand. ➡️ Their models show that oil prices will have to rise to between 150 and 160 dollars to achieve the required demand destruction. THE PRODUCTION TRAP ➡️ Middle East production has been curtailed by 13 to 14 million barrels per day because storage tanks are full and crude cannot exit. ➡️ Barnacle buildup on vessels that have sat idle in warm water will add 80 to 90 percent to fuel costs and further delay any recovery. ➡️ "The IRGC has figured out that having control of the strait is more powerful than actual possession of a nuclear bomb" — and there is no sign they plan to relinquish it. THE COVID INVERSION ➡️ The current pace of inventory depletion is the fastest in history and stands as the direct opposite of the massive build that started in February 2020. ➡️ All previous safety buffers including the largest SPR releases in history have now been exhausted or are being drawn down in real time. ➡️ The market remains trapped in apathy and continues to price energy equities for oil in the high 60s to low 70s even as physical barrels trade near 95. THE LONG-TERM BULL CASE ➡️ After the spike forces the necessary adjustment, the day after will feature years of incremental demand just to rebuild inventories and replace lost production from formation damage. ➡️ Even a sudden resolution would still leave lasting bullish effects because much of the generalist capital has stayed on the sidelines waiting for certainty that may never arrive. ➡️ Energy equities represent one of the strongest long-term investment opportunities precisely because the structural shortage is already in motion. THE BOTTOM LINE The market is betting that hope and tweets will somehow refill the tanks before they run dry. When tank bottoms arrive the price adjustment will be swift, brutal, and completely necessary to balance a system that has run out of buffers. #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #InventoryCrisis #EnergyInvesting #OilPriceSpike #BullishEnergy #TankBottoms
1:15

VIOLENT PRICE SIGNAL AHEAD: WHY $150 OIL IS NOW THE ONLY PATH TO BALANCE Energy strategist Eric Nuttall of ninepoint Energy Strategies just delivered his long-awaited weekly update. Instead of relief, the only measurable change has been the relentless drain of nearly 200 million barrels of forfeited production while the world clings to hope. The data from Kepler and the warnings from Exxon and Chevron reveal a structural crisis that tweets cannot fix. THE STRAIT REALITY CHECK ➡️ Just 23 ships are getting through the Strait of Hormuz each day compared to the normal baseline of 40 to 45. ➡️ Daily claims of 35 to 40 ships passing were proven false when actual tracking data showed only two tankers making the transit. ➡️ Leading shipping companies like Maersk have abandoned the route completely because the risk outweighs any reward. THE INVENTORY FREEFALL ➡️ Global inventories visible and invisible are now falling at a rate of 6 to 8 million barrels per day. ➡️ Almost 200 million barrels have already been sucked out of the system in just the past two weeks. ➡️ The cumulative forfeited production has already exceeded one billion barrels and is tracking toward two billion under even optimistic scenarios. THE EXPERT ALARM ➡️ Exxon and Chevron have now corroborated the numbers and stated the market is heading into the danger zone within the next few weeks. ➡️ Inventories are approaching the point where refineries hit tank bottoms and can no longer operate without cutting demand. ➡️ Their models show that oil prices will have to rise to between 150 and 160 dollars to achieve the required demand destruction. THE PRODUCTION TRAP ➡️ Middle East production has been curtailed by 13 to 14 million barrels per day because storage tanks are full and crude cannot exit. ➡️ Barnacle buildup on vessels that have sat idle in warm water will add 80 to 90 percent to fuel costs and further delay any recovery. ➡️ "The IRGC has figured out that having control of the strait is more powerful than actual possession of a nuclear bomb" — and there is no sign they plan to relinquish it. THE COVID INVERSION ➡️ The current pace of inventory depletion is the fastest in history and stands as the direct opposite of the massive build that started in February 2020. ➡️ All previous safety buffers including the largest SPR releases in history have now been exhausted or are being drawn down in real time. ➡️ The market remains trapped in apathy and continues to price energy equities for oil in the high 60s to low 70s even as physical barrels trade near 95. THE LONG-TERM BULL CASE ➡️ After the spike forces the necessary adjustment, the day after will feature years of incremental demand just to rebuild inventories and replace lost production from formation damage. ➡️ Even a sudden resolution would still leave lasting bullish effects because much of the generalist capital has stayed on the sidelines waiting for certainty that may never arrive. ➡️ Energy equities represent one of the strongest long-term investment opportunities precisely because the structural shortage is already in motion. THE BOTTOM LINE The market is betting that hope and tweets will somehow refill the tanks before they run dry. When tank bottoms arrive the price adjustment will be swift, brutal, and completely necessary to balance a system that has run out of buffers. #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #InventoryCrisis #EnergyInvesting #OilPriceSpike #BullishEnergy #TankBottoms

Mark

26,328 次观看 • 2 个月前

ERIC NUTTAL: PEACE DEAL OR NOT - WHY OIL IS ABOUT TO SPIKE SHARPLY HIGHER The renowned oil market analyst Eric Nuttall emphasises that even if Donald Trump and Iran reach the best possible peace agreement and the Strait of Hormuz is immediately reopened in full, oil prices will not plummet again. A major short-term price spike is now imminent in the coming days and weeks as depleted inventories trigger real shortages. The market still believes everything snaps back to normal overnight. It will not. THE SHOCKING SUPPLY LOSS ➡️ Middle East producers have already shut in a staggering 13 million barrels per day as storage fills with trapped ships. ➡️ That equals roughly 400 million barrels lost every single month — far beyond any pre-crisis glut the market priced in. THE SHORT-TERM INVENTORY CRUNCH ➡️ Floating storage and onshore safety cushions are now exhausted after weeks of disruption. ➡️ Final ships have reached destinations and real shortages are just starting to hit hard — jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline supplies are tightening rapidly. ➡️ Governments are already discussing rationing while airlines warn of billion-dollar hits from higher fuel costs. THE COVID PARALLEL ➡️ COVID delivered the biggest demand shock in history through lockdowns and halted travel. ➡️ Today we are experiencing the biggest supply shock in history with 13 million barrels per day offline. ➡️ To rebalance the market we need roughly 8 million barrels per day of demand destruction after SPR releases. ➡️ This can only come from government rationing like we saw in COVID — or significantly higher oil prices. THE 90-DAY LAG TRAP ➡️ 147 tankers are trapped and must exit, sail 25-30 days, unload, return, and reload — creating a minimum 90-day delay before normal flows resume. ➡️ This means over a billion barrels of production will still be forsaken even with an immediate reopening. THE NEW STRUCTURAL FLOOR ➡️ Global inventories are racing toward historic lows by late May and beyond. ➡️ Over 75 facilities damaged plus reservoir damage will take months to years to repair. ➡️ Add SPR restocking demand, customer diversification, and a permanent $10-20 political risk premium. THE BOTTOM LINE The day after any peace deal will not look like the old normal. Massive short-term supply shortfalls and depleted buffers guarantee higher — not lower — oil prices ahead. A painful price spike is coming sooner than the market expects. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilSpike #OilPrices #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyCrisis #HigherForLonger #OilBullMarket #InventoryCrunch
1:54

ERIC NUTTAL: PEACE DEAL OR NOT - WHY OIL IS ABOUT TO SPIKE SHARPLY HIGHER The renowned oil market analyst Eric Nuttall emphasises that even if Donald Trump and Iran reach the best possible peace agreement and the Strait of Hormuz is immediately reopened in full, oil prices will not plummet again. A major short-term price spike is now imminent in the coming days and weeks as depleted inventories trigger real shortages. The market still believes everything snaps back to normal overnight. It will not. THE SHOCKING SUPPLY LOSS ➡️ Middle East producers have already shut in a staggering 13 million barrels per day as storage fills with trapped ships. ➡️ That equals roughly 400 million barrels lost every single month — far beyond any pre-crisis glut the market priced in. THE SHORT-TERM INVENTORY CRUNCH ➡️ Floating storage and onshore safety cushions are now exhausted after weeks of disruption. ➡️ Final ships have reached destinations and real shortages are just starting to hit hard — jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline supplies are tightening rapidly. ➡️ Governments are already discussing rationing while airlines warn of billion-dollar hits from higher fuel costs. THE COVID PARALLEL ➡️ COVID delivered the biggest demand shock in history through lockdowns and halted travel. ➡️ Today we are experiencing the biggest supply shock in history with 13 million barrels per day offline. ➡️ To rebalance the market we need roughly 8 million barrels per day of demand destruction after SPR releases. ➡️ This can only come from government rationing like we saw in COVID — or significantly higher oil prices. THE 90-DAY LAG TRAP ➡️ 147 tankers are trapped and must exit, sail 25-30 days, unload, return, and reload — creating a minimum 90-day delay before normal flows resume. ➡️ This means over a billion barrels of production will still be forsaken even with an immediate reopening. THE NEW STRUCTURAL FLOOR ➡️ Global inventories are racing toward historic lows by late May and beyond. ➡️ Over 75 facilities damaged plus reservoir damage will take months to years to repair. ➡️ Add SPR restocking demand, customer diversification, and a permanent $10-20 political risk premium. THE BOTTOM LINE The day after any peace deal will not look like the old normal. Massive short-term supply shortfalls and depleted buffers guarantee higher — not lower — oil prices ahead. A painful price spike is coming sooner than the market expects. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilSpike #OilPrices #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyCrisis #HigherForLonger #OilBullMarket #InventoryCrunch

Mark

67,257 次观看 • 4 个月前

CRUDE SHORTAGE WHIPLASH: WHY OIL PRICES WILL SPIKE AFTER THE BACKLOG CLEARS IN DAYS Troy Eckard of Enterprises Oil & Gas Investing has just revealed why the headlines about record crude oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz are misleading at best. What looks like a sudden flood of supply is actually the release of oil that has been loaded and waiting for nearly four months. This temporary surge is masking a much deeper supply problem that the world has been papering over with strategic reserves. Once the backlog is gone, the real supply picture will come into focus fast. THE HORMUZ BACKLOG REALITY ➡️ The recent movement of 19.1 million barrels per day is not new oil from opened wells or increased production. ➡️ It is not coming from storage tanks sitting at the ports ready to go. ➡️ Every single barrel was loaded onto tankers before the strait closed and has been stuck waiting for safe passage. ➡️ The main body of the strait is still not open and remains full of mines. ➡️ Only a narrow pathway is being used to let these long-delayed vessels through. THE SCALE OF WHAT JUST MOVED ➡️ When the strait closed, estimates show 110 to 120 million barrels of oil were trapped on vessels behind the gate. ➡️ That amount equals just one day of total global consumption at 104 million barrels per day. ➡️ At the pace seen recently, that entire backlog will clear in roughly five to six days. ➡️ After those days pass, there will be no equivalent volume of new oil taking its place. THE FOUR-MONTH SUPPLY HOLE ➡️ The closure created a massive 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrel deficit over almost four months. ➡️ The world responded by draining strategic reserves, pipelines, and every available storage to prevent prices from reaching 150 or 200 dollars. ➡️ That emergency action suppressed prices and created the current calm at around 70 dollars and fifty cents. ➡️ But those reserves cannot be drained indefinitely. THE PRICE ILLUSION ➡️ Oil trading near 70 dollars today exists because traders are dumping positions on the back of this one-time inventory release. ➡️ The media is calling it a solution and record progress through the strait. ➡️ In truth, production has not ramped up and new infrastructure is still months away from delivering. ➡️ This is a pretend moment of adequate supply that will not last. THE COMING WHIPLASH ➡️ In five to eight days the extra 100 million barrels of backlog oil will be absorbed into the global supply chain. ➡️ Physical buyers needing real barrels for customers will then enter the market in force. ➡️ A daily shortfall of 8 to 12 million barrels could become clear within three to four weeks. ➡️ The shift from trader covering losses to genuine physical demand will create a sharp reversal. THE BOTTOM LINE The recent drop in oil prices is riding on the final escape of oil that was already in the system long before the recent disruptions. That temporary relief is ending fast, and the underlying four-month supply hole remains unfilled. The market is about to discover that celebrating this surge was premature. This is the sound of the real supply picture reasserting itself. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #OilPrices #HormuzBacklog #CrudeOilReality #SupplyShortage #EnergyMarkets #OilWhiplash
0:49

CRUDE SHORTAGE WHIPLASH: WHY OIL PRICES WILL SPIKE AFTER THE BACKLOG CLEARS IN DAYS Troy Eckard of Enterprises Oil & Gas Investing has just revealed why the headlines about record crude oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz are misleading at best. What looks like a sudden flood of supply is actually the release of oil that has been loaded and waiting for nearly four months. This temporary surge is masking a much deeper supply problem that the world has been papering over with strategic reserves. Once the backlog is gone, the real supply picture will come into focus fast. THE HORMUZ BACKLOG REALITY ➡️ The recent movement of 19.1 million barrels per day is not new oil from opened wells or increased production. ➡️ It is not coming from storage tanks sitting at the ports ready to go. ➡️ Every single barrel was loaded onto tankers before the strait closed and has been stuck waiting for safe passage. ➡️ The main body of the strait is still not open and remains full of mines. ➡️ Only a narrow pathway is being used to let these long-delayed vessels through. THE SCALE OF WHAT JUST MOVED ➡️ When the strait closed, estimates show 110 to 120 million barrels of oil were trapped on vessels behind the gate. ➡️ That amount equals just one day of total global consumption at 104 million barrels per day. ➡️ At the pace seen recently, that entire backlog will clear in roughly five to six days. ➡️ After those days pass, there will be no equivalent volume of new oil taking its place. THE FOUR-MONTH SUPPLY HOLE ➡️ The closure created a massive 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrel deficit over almost four months. ➡️ The world responded by draining strategic reserves, pipelines, and every available storage to prevent prices from reaching 150 or 200 dollars. ➡️ That emergency action suppressed prices and created the current calm at around 70 dollars and fifty cents. ➡️ But those reserves cannot be drained indefinitely. THE PRICE ILLUSION ➡️ Oil trading near 70 dollars today exists because traders are dumping positions on the back of this one-time inventory release. ➡️ The media is calling it a solution and record progress through the strait. ➡️ In truth, production has not ramped up and new infrastructure is still months away from delivering. ➡️ This is a pretend moment of adequate supply that will not last. THE COMING WHIPLASH ➡️ In five to eight days the extra 100 million barrels of backlog oil will be absorbed into the global supply chain. ➡️ Physical buyers needing real barrels for customers will then enter the market in force. ➡️ A daily shortfall of 8 to 12 million barrels could become clear within three to four weeks. ➡️ The shift from trader covering losses to genuine physical demand will create a sharp reversal. THE BOTTOM LINE The recent drop in oil prices is riding on the final escape of oil that was already in the system long before the recent disruptions. That temporary relief is ending fast, and the underlying four-month supply hole remains unfilled. The market is about to discover that celebrating this surge was premature. This is the sound of the real supply picture reasserting itself. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #OilPrices #HormuzBacklog #CrudeOilReality #SupplyShortage #EnergyMarkets #OilWhiplash

Mark

73,368 次观看 • 1 个月前

7% CRASH FROM "95% DONE" DEAL THAT NEVER HAPPENED - MARKET MANIPULATION AT PEAK: WHY OIL SHOULD BE $130 Energy markets expert Ross Hendrix of Porter and Co. just laid bare the most blatant case of oil market manipulation in years. Over one weekend the administration blasted out headlines claiming a deal was "95% done" with Iran set to open the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices immediately plunged 7% on Monday. Yet on that same Monday ships were being attacked in the Persian Gulf and Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon with zero increase in actual tanker traffic through the strait. THE WEEKEND HEADLINE SCAM ➡️ Administration officials told markets the deal was 95% complete and Iran would surrender its uranium and reopen the strait. ➡️ Oil crashed 7% the next trading day on nothing but those tweets and press releases. ➡️ The very same day ships were being blown up in the Persian Gulf and new attacks hit Lebanon. ➡️ There was still no measurable pickup in traffic through the strait that supposedly just reopened. THE REALITY THEY ARE HIDING ➡️ A minimum of 10 million barrels per day remain blocked from the Strait of Hormuz entering month four. ➡️ Global inventories have already lost over one billion barrels with no end in sight. ➡️ The market is trading off social media posts instead of physical barrels and actual tanker data. THE DEMAND DESTRUCTION THEY ARE BLOCKING ➡️ To balance this market oil needs to rise high enough to destroy 10 million barrels of daily demand. ➡️ Every jawboning headline keeps prices artificially low and prevents that destruction from happening. ➡️ The slack in the system is being chewed through day by day with nothing to replace it. THE VIOLENT RECKONING AHEAD ➡️ Ross Hendrix warns we should already be at $120 to $130 if the market were pricing reality. ➡️ Instead we are being set up for one of the most horrific price spikes in commodity history. ➡️ The longer they suppress the truth the more violent the snap higher will be when the final buffer disappears. THE BOTTOM LINE They are not managing a crisis. They are managing the narrative while the physical oil market burns. When the last barrel of slack is gone the price will not politely rise. It will explode. HT: YouTube Michael Farris (Coffee and a Mike) Ross Hendricks #OilManipulation #HormuzBlockade #FakePeaceDeals #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #ViolentReckoning #MarketTruth
1:22

7% CRASH FROM "95% DONE" DEAL THAT NEVER HAPPENED - MARKET MANIPULATION AT PEAK: WHY OIL SHOULD BE $130 Energy markets expert Ross Hendrix of Porter and Co. just laid bare the most blatant case of oil market manipulation in years. Over one weekend the administration blasted out headlines claiming a deal was "95% done" with Iran set to open the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices immediately plunged 7% on Monday. Yet on that same Monday ships were being attacked in the Persian Gulf and Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon with zero increase in actual tanker traffic through the strait. THE WEEKEND HEADLINE SCAM ➡️ Administration officials told markets the deal was 95% complete and Iran would surrender its uranium and reopen the strait. ➡️ Oil crashed 7% the next trading day on nothing but those tweets and press releases. ➡️ The very same day ships were being blown up in the Persian Gulf and new attacks hit Lebanon. ➡️ There was still no measurable pickup in traffic through the strait that supposedly just reopened. THE REALITY THEY ARE HIDING ➡️ A minimum of 10 million barrels per day remain blocked from the Strait of Hormuz entering month four. ➡️ Global inventories have already lost over one billion barrels with no end in sight. ➡️ The market is trading off social media posts instead of physical barrels and actual tanker data. THE DEMAND DESTRUCTION THEY ARE BLOCKING ➡️ To balance this market oil needs to rise high enough to destroy 10 million barrels of daily demand. ➡️ Every jawboning headline keeps prices artificially low and prevents that destruction from happening. ➡️ The slack in the system is being chewed through day by day with nothing to replace it. THE VIOLENT RECKONING AHEAD ➡️ Ross Hendrix warns we should already be at $120 to $130 if the market were pricing reality. ➡️ Instead we are being set up for one of the most horrific price spikes in commodity history. ➡️ The longer they suppress the truth the more violent the snap higher will be when the final buffer disappears. THE BOTTOM LINE They are not managing a crisis. They are managing the narrative while the physical oil market burns. When the last barrel of slack is gone the price will not politely rise. It will explode. HT: YouTube Michael Farris (Coffee and a Mike) Ross Hendricks #OilManipulation #HormuzBlockade #FakePeaceDeals #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #ViolentReckoning #MarketTruth

Mark

86,023 次观看 • 2 个月前

EXXON CEO WARNS $150 OIL WITHIN WEEKS: THE SHORTAGE THE MARKET IGNORED Josh Young of Bison Interests and Bison just laid out the numbers that flip the entire oil narrative on its head. The numbers coming out of the energy markets have flipped from bearish complacency to outright crisis faster than almost anyone modeled. A balanced global oil system has lost up to 14 million barrels of daily supply in a matter of weeks. Inventories are draining at hundreds of millions of barrels per month with virtually no demand destruction to offset the loss. THE SUPPLY SHOCK AND CYCLE REALITY ➡️ Global supply has dropped by 10 to 14 million barrels per day to around 90 to 92 million barrels daily. ➡️ The market was already 15 years into a down cycle of underinvestment before the conflict hit. ➡️ Traders had positioned for a glut that the fundamentals never supported. THE INVENTORY CRISIS ACCELERATES ➡️ Storage has plunged from 8.3 billion to nearly 7 billion barrels in just months. ➡️ Monthly depletion of 300 to 500 million barrels continues without relief. ➡️ Tank bottoms are approaching fast, threatening the basic functioning of global oil logistics. THE DEMAND AND RECOVERY DYNAMICS ➡️ Demand destruction remains minimal and largely availability driven rather than economic. ➡️ Even immediate reopening of key chokepoints would require two to three months for normalization. ➡️ Additional inventory losses of 500 million to 1 billion barrels are already locked in. THE $150 OIL WARNING FROM THE TOP ➡️ Exxon and Chevron CEOs stated within weeks they expect $150 plus physical oil. ➡️ Their conservative stance makes this warning all the more significant for the market. ➡️ The data on collapsing supply and vanishing storage fully supports their assessment. THE BOTTOM LINE The war has accelerated an already tightening oil cycle into a full-blown supply crisis. With inventories crashing and almost no demand response to cushion the blow, the market is now set for materially higher prices over an extended period. The old glut fears have been exposed as fundamentally misplaced. This is the supply crisis that forces the re-rating of oil higher. #OilSupplyCrisis #HigherOilPrices #InventoryDrawdown #EnergyBull #WTI #TankBottoms #SupplyShock HT: YouTube Natural Resource Stocks Josh Young
1:27

EXXON CEO WARNS $150 OIL WITHIN WEEKS: THE SHORTAGE THE MARKET IGNORED Josh Young of Bison Interests and Bison just laid out the numbers that flip the entire oil narrative on its head. The numbers coming out of the energy markets have flipped from bearish complacency to outright crisis faster than almost anyone modeled. A balanced global oil system has lost up to 14 million barrels of daily supply in a matter of weeks. Inventories are draining at hundreds of millions of barrels per month with virtually no demand destruction to offset the loss. THE SUPPLY SHOCK AND CYCLE REALITY ➡️ Global supply has dropped by 10 to 14 million barrels per day to around 90 to 92 million barrels daily. ➡️ The market was already 15 years into a down cycle of underinvestment before the conflict hit. ➡️ Traders had positioned for a glut that the fundamentals never supported. THE INVENTORY CRISIS ACCELERATES ➡️ Storage has plunged from 8.3 billion to nearly 7 billion barrels in just months. ➡️ Monthly depletion of 300 to 500 million barrels continues without relief. ➡️ Tank bottoms are approaching fast, threatening the basic functioning of global oil logistics. THE DEMAND AND RECOVERY DYNAMICS ➡️ Demand destruction remains minimal and largely availability driven rather than economic. ➡️ Even immediate reopening of key chokepoints would require two to three months for normalization. ➡️ Additional inventory losses of 500 million to 1 billion barrels are already locked in. THE $150 OIL WARNING FROM THE TOP ➡️ Exxon and Chevron CEOs stated within weeks they expect $150 plus physical oil. ➡️ Their conservative stance makes this warning all the more significant for the market. ➡️ The data on collapsing supply and vanishing storage fully supports their assessment. THE BOTTOM LINE The war has accelerated an already tightening oil cycle into a full-blown supply crisis. With inventories crashing and almost no demand response to cushion the blow, the market is now set for materially higher prices over an extended period. The old glut fears have been exposed as fundamentally misplaced. This is the supply crisis that forces the re-rating of oil higher. #OilSupplyCrisis #HigherOilPrices #InventoryDrawdown #EnergyBull #WTI #TankBottoms #SupplyShock HT: YouTube Natural Resource Stocks Josh Young

Mark

18,685 次观看 • 2 个月前

MONTHS TO RECOVER: THE COVID LESSON JEFF CURRIE SAYS APPLIES TO IRAN OIL Jeff Currie, executive co-chairman at Abaxx Markets, just laid out why the potential Iran-US ceasefire will not bring quick relief to oil markets. The uncertainty and risk remain huge because physical players see no reason to change course. They are destocking instead, creating a powerful downward pressure on prices that the headlines completely miss. THE CORE THESIS: UNCERTAINTY STAYS SKY HIGH ➡️ Getting to the ceasefire was extremely challenging. ➡️ Maintaining it is going to be even more challenging, which means the uncertainty remains quite high. ➡️ Physical players are not changing their behavior one bit in response to the headlines. ➡️ Major shipping companies like Maersk and Mitsui are keeping their vessels out of the Gulf. THE 60 MILLION BARREL TRAP ➡️ Around 60 million barrels of oil remain trapped inside the Gulf right now. ➡️ Releasing that volume would cover roughly ten days of global inventory at current draw rates. ➡️ After the short-term flush, the longer-term supply solution is still missing. ➡️ "After that, you really have to question what is the long term solution here, and nobody right now has an answer for that," Jeff Currie warned. THE SLOW RETURN TO NORMAL FLOWS ➡️ Flows through the Strait of Hormuz will take months to return to normal. ➡️ Even with a perfect ceasefire signed on Friday, serious discussions about resuming normality would only start by the end of the year. THE PRODUCTION REBUILD CHALLENGE ➡️ Saudi Arabia can restore output the quickest because they recycle their fields at high frequency. ➡️ Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and Qatar face much longer timelines measured in months if not years. ➡️ The COVID precedent is clear: shutting in 10 million barrels per day took the US two to three years to fully recover. THE DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE REALITY ➡️ Many wells were shut and damaged, not simply turned off. ➡️ Restoring pressure and redrilling damaged wells takes significant time and explains recent strength in driller stocks. THE DE-STOCKING PHENOMENON ➡️ Oil prices are falling for real reasons tied to aggressive destocking by both financial and physical players. ➡️ Financial positions are collapsing as policy uncertainty spikes and value at risk drops to some of the lowest levels seen. ➡️ Physical players including German heating oil consumers are deliberately running down stocks. ➡️ They believe uncertainty will lead to lower prices tomorrow, so why buy today? ➡️ In the US, drivers are purchasing ten gallons less per fill-up at retailers like Walmart and Costco while waiting for cheaper fuel. THE INVENTORY REPLENISHMENT GAP ➡️ A billion barrels or more of oil have already been lost from inventories and strategic reserves. ➡️ Replenishing them will take months, not days or weeks. ➡️ Tertiary inventories held by end consumers keep draining lower as everyone delays purchases. THE FINANCIAL VERSUS PHYSICAL DIVIDE ➡️ Financial markets are treating the ceasefire as a done deal with rapid normalization ahead. ➡️ Physical market participants see a completely different picture of prolonged uncertainty and are acting on it now. THE BOTTOM LINE A signed ceasefire might flush some trapped oil in the coming weeks, but it does nothing to resolve the fundamental uncertainty or the massive inventory deficit built up over recent months. This is the sound of physical oil markets refusing to celebrate while financial markets price in a victory that has not yet arrived. #OilMarkets #IranCeasefire #EnergyUncertainty #Destocking #JeffCurrie #StraitOfHormuz #OilSupply
0:44

MONTHS TO RECOVER: THE COVID LESSON JEFF CURRIE SAYS APPLIES TO IRAN OIL Jeff Currie, executive co-chairman at Abaxx Markets, just laid out why the potential Iran-US ceasefire will not bring quick relief to oil markets. The uncertainty and risk remain huge because physical players see no reason to change course. They are destocking instead, creating a powerful downward pressure on prices that the headlines completely miss. THE CORE THESIS: UNCERTAINTY STAYS SKY HIGH ➡️ Getting to the ceasefire was extremely challenging. ➡️ Maintaining it is going to be even more challenging, which means the uncertainty remains quite high. ➡️ Physical players are not changing their behavior one bit in response to the headlines. ➡️ Major shipping companies like Maersk and Mitsui are keeping their vessels out of the Gulf. THE 60 MILLION BARREL TRAP ➡️ Around 60 million barrels of oil remain trapped inside the Gulf right now. ➡️ Releasing that volume would cover roughly ten days of global inventory at current draw rates. ➡️ After the short-term flush, the longer-term supply solution is still missing. ➡️ "After that, you really have to question what is the long term solution here, and nobody right now has an answer for that," Jeff Currie warned. THE SLOW RETURN TO NORMAL FLOWS ➡️ Flows through the Strait of Hormuz will take months to return to normal. ➡️ Even with a perfect ceasefire signed on Friday, serious discussions about resuming normality would only start by the end of the year. THE PRODUCTION REBUILD CHALLENGE ➡️ Saudi Arabia can restore output the quickest because they recycle their fields at high frequency. ➡️ Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and Qatar face much longer timelines measured in months if not years. ➡️ The COVID precedent is clear: shutting in 10 million barrels per day took the US two to three years to fully recover. THE DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE REALITY ➡️ Many wells were shut and damaged, not simply turned off. ➡️ Restoring pressure and redrilling damaged wells takes significant time and explains recent strength in driller stocks. THE DE-STOCKING PHENOMENON ➡️ Oil prices are falling for real reasons tied to aggressive destocking by both financial and physical players. ➡️ Financial positions are collapsing as policy uncertainty spikes and value at risk drops to some of the lowest levels seen. ➡️ Physical players including German heating oil consumers are deliberately running down stocks. ➡️ They believe uncertainty will lead to lower prices tomorrow, so why buy today? ➡️ In the US, drivers are purchasing ten gallons less per fill-up at retailers like Walmart and Costco while waiting for cheaper fuel. THE INVENTORY REPLENISHMENT GAP ➡️ A billion barrels or more of oil have already been lost from inventories and strategic reserves. ➡️ Replenishing them will take months, not days or weeks. ➡️ Tertiary inventories held by end consumers keep draining lower as everyone delays purchases. THE FINANCIAL VERSUS PHYSICAL DIVIDE ➡️ Financial markets are treating the ceasefire as a done deal with rapid normalization ahead. ➡️ Physical market participants see a completely different picture of prolonged uncertainty and are acting on it now. THE BOTTOM LINE A signed ceasefire might flush some trapped oil in the coming weeks, but it does nothing to resolve the fundamental uncertainty or the massive inventory deficit built up over recent months. This is the sound of physical oil markets refusing to celebrate while financial markets price in a victory that has not yet arrived. #OilMarkets #IranCeasefire #EnergyUncertainty #Destocking #JeffCurrie #StraitOfHormuz #OilSupply

Mark

20,090 次观看 • 2 个月前

CHINA WEAPONIZES THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: THE 1.4 BILLION BARREL DEMAND STRIKE SET TO CRUSH OIL PRICES Troy W. Eckard of Eckard Enterprises has spent 41 years inside the oil and gas industry. He now reveals how the Strait of Hormuz has become a Bermuda Triangle of daily uncertainty and how China is weaponizing that chaos from the demand side in a way never seen before. What he describes next explains why oil prices may behave so differently in the months ahead. THE BERMUDA TRIANGLE OPENS THE DOOR ➡️ The Strait of Hormuz now operates like the Bermuda Triangle where vessels and 20,000 mariners never know from one day to the next whether safe passage exists. ➡️ This constant uncertainty created the perfect opening for a new kind of energy power play. THE CHINA DEMAND WEAPON ➡️ For the last 45 days China stopped buying 6 to 7 million barrels per day in the open market. ➡️ Instead Beijing is draining its 1.4 billion barrel strategic reserves to create intentional demand destruction. ➡️ Eckard states clearly this is worse than normal demand destruction because it is completely intentional and calculated. ➡️ The result could push oil prices into the low 70s, the 60s, or even the $50 range. THE PRODUCER SQUEEZE ➡️ Crushed prices force companies worldwide to slash capital spending and delay new drilling projects. ➡️ China simply waits to refill its own storage at the lowest prices once producers capitulate. ➡️ This demand swing tactic has never appeared in Eckard’s four decade career. THE 180 DAY POWER PLAY ➡️ China consumes 11.5 to 11.7 million barrels daily yet produces only 4.5 million barrels at home. ➡️ Its reserves give Beijing the ability to halt all imports for roughly 180 days if required. ➡️ No supply swing player has ever held this level of demand side leverage until now. THE BOTTOM LINE China has turned Strait of Hormuz uncertainty into a powerful demand weapon that lets them crush prices today and quietly restock tomorrow at everyone else’s expense. This is the sound of a new energy order being born where demand manipulation becomes the ultimate strategic tool. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #ChinaOilWeapon #HormuzBermudaTriangle #IntentionalDemandDestruction #OilPriceManipulation #EnergyGeopolitics #StraitOfHormuz #ChinaReserves
1:58

CHINA WEAPONIZES THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: THE 1.4 BILLION BARREL DEMAND STRIKE SET TO CRUSH OIL PRICES Troy W. Eckard of Eckard Enterprises has spent 41 years inside the oil and gas industry. He now reveals how the Strait of Hormuz has become a Bermuda Triangle of daily uncertainty and how China is weaponizing that chaos from the demand side in a way never seen before. What he describes next explains why oil prices may behave so differently in the months ahead. THE BERMUDA TRIANGLE OPENS THE DOOR ➡️ The Strait of Hormuz now operates like the Bermuda Triangle where vessels and 20,000 mariners never know from one day to the next whether safe passage exists. ➡️ This constant uncertainty created the perfect opening for a new kind of energy power play. THE CHINA DEMAND WEAPON ➡️ For the last 45 days China stopped buying 6 to 7 million barrels per day in the open market. ➡️ Instead Beijing is draining its 1.4 billion barrel strategic reserves to create intentional demand destruction. ➡️ Eckard states clearly this is worse than normal demand destruction because it is completely intentional and calculated. ➡️ The result could push oil prices into the low 70s, the 60s, or even the $50 range. THE PRODUCER SQUEEZE ➡️ Crushed prices force companies worldwide to slash capital spending and delay new drilling projects. ➡️ China simply waits to refill its own storage at the lowest prices once producers capitulate. ➡️ This demand swing tactic has never appeared in Eckard’s four decade career. THE 180 DAY POWER PLAY ➡️ China consumes 11.5 to 11.7 million barrels daily yet produces only 4.5 million barrels at home. ➡️ Its reserves give Beijing the ability to halt all imports for roughly 180 days if required. ➡️ No supply swing player has ever held this level of demand side leverage until now. THE BOTTOM LINE China has turned Strait of Hormuz uncertainty into a powerful demand weapon that lets them crush prices today and quietly restock tomorrow at everyone else’s expense. This is the sound of a new energy order being born where demand manipulation becomes the ultimate strategic tool. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #ChinaOilWeapon #HormuzBermudaTriangle #IntentionalDemandDestruction #OilPriceManipulation #EnergyGeopolitics #StraitOfHormuz #ChinaReserves

Mark

47,024 次观看 • 1 个月前

LARRY JOHNSON PREDICTS: US GROUND INVASION OF IRAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND Ex CIA Larry Johnson cuts through the noise with a chilling assessment based on troop movements and force deployments right now. Trump has not backed down out of fear. He is simply playing the same games he has played before to lull the Iranians into complacency. A major ground attack is coming fast, and it is aimed straight at the heart of the Strait of Hormuz. THE INVASION TIMELINE ➡️ The United States will launch a ground attack this weekend. ➡️ If bad weather hits, it may be pushed back until Monday or Tuesday. ➡️ If the weather clears, expect it sometime Friday or Saturday. THE TARGETS SELECTED ➡️ They will attack either Car Island or Keshum Island. ➡️ Car Island is one of the most important gas production sites for the Iranians. THE DEPLOYMENT DETAILS ➡️ Massive special operation assets have already been poured into the region. ➡️ Right now they are deployed in Israel and Jordan. ➡️ They will be forward deployed prior to the operation to Aluded Air Force Base in Qatar or possibly Prince Sultan Air Force Base in Saudi Arabia. ➡️ Aluded would be the more likely location. THE STATED MISSION ➡️ The attack is ostensibly to open the Strait of Hormuz. THE INEVITABLE FAILURE ➡️ It will fail. ➡️ They may actually take control of Keshum Island. ➡️ But then what? ➡️ Iran still has drones, submarines, underwater drones that are maneuverable, and missiles in the cliffs that line the strait. ➡️ The United States is not sending enough military force to actually open the strait and keep it open. THE DEADLY CONSEQUENCE ➡️ What they are creating is a big fat target that Iran is going to attack. ➡️ This will inflict significant casualties on some of the United States most elite forces. THE BOTTOM LINE Larry Johnson’s assessment is blunt and final: this ground invasion is nothing more than a show of force that will turn America’s best troops into sitting ducks with no path to lasting success or control of the strait. America is about to learn the hard way what happens when you underestimate Iran. #USGroundInvasion #StraitOfHormuz #LarryJohnson #HormuzTrap #EliteForcesAtRisk #IranWar #DoomedOperation
2:01

LARRY JOHNSON PREDICTS: US GROUND INVASION OF IRAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND Ex CIA Larry Johnson cuts through the noise with a chilling assessment based on troop movements and force deployments right now. Trump has not backed down out of fear. He is simply playing the same games he has played before to lull the Iranians into complacency. A major ground attack is coming fast, and it is aimed straight at the heart of the Strait of Hormuz. THE INVASION TIMELINE ➡️ The United States will launch a ground attack this weekend. ➡️ If bad weather hits, it may be pushed back until Monday or Tuesday. ➡️ If the weather clears, expect it sometime Friday or Saturday. THE TARGETS SELECTED ➡️ They will attack either Car Island or Keshum Island. ➡️ Car Island is one of the most important gas production sites for the Iranians. THE DEPLOYMENT DETAILS ➡️ Massive special operation assets have already been poured into the region. ➡️ Right now they are deployed in Israel and Jordan. ➡️ They will be forward deployed prior to the operation to Aluded Air Force Base in Qatar or possibly Prince Sultan Air Force Base in Saudi Arabia. ➡️ Aluded would be the more likely location. THE STATED MISSION ➡️ The attack is ostensibly to open the Strait of Hormuz. THE INEVITABLE FAILURE ➡️ It will fail. ➡️ They may actually take control of Keshum Island. ➡️ But then what? ➡️ Iran still has drones, submarines, underwater drones that are maneuverable, and missiles in the cliffs that line the strait. ➡️ The United States is not sending enough military force to actually open the strait and keep it open. THE DEADLY CONSEQUENCE ➡️ What they are creating is a big fat target that Iran is going to attack. ➡️ This will inflict significant casualties on some of the United States most elite forces. THE BOTTOM LINE Larry Johnson’s assessment is blunt and final: this ground invasion is nothing more than a show of force that will turn America’s best troops into sitting ducks with no path to lasting success or control of the strait. America is about to learn the hard way what happens when you underestimate Iran. #USGroundInvasion #StraitOfHormuz #LarryJohnson #HormuzTrap #EliteForcesAtRisk #IranWar #DoomedOperation

Mark

175,776 次观看 • 4 个月前

THE REAL OIL PRICE IS ALREADY $140 — PAPER MARKET ABOUT TO BREAK David McAlvany, CEO of the McAlvany Financial Group, just exposed the biggest disconnect in the oil market right now. Futures look calm. Physical reality is already screaming. The catch-up is coming and most traders are still asleep. THE PHYSICAL REALITY CHECK ➡️ Futures barely moved today. ➡️ The actual delivered barrel is already trading between $120 and $140. ➡️ That gap cannot last. Paper prices must rise toward physical reality. THE CHOKEPOINT LOCKDOWN ➡️ Crude tanker transits through Bab al-Mandab have collapsed from 140 a day to single digits. ➡️ Some days the number hits zero. ➡️ Attacks have effectively shut the Red Sea route while Hormuz remains under sustained pressure. ➡️ Iran has zero intention of allowing these choke points to normalize. THE US PRODUCTION TRAP ➡️ America is still producing 13.8 million barrels per day. ➡️ Shale wells decline 60 to 70 percent within one to two years without continuous drilling. ➡️ Rig counts are not rising and the majors refuse to fund major new programs without sustained high prices. ➡️ The Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at just 305 million barrels — the lowest level since 1983 and nearly untouchable. THE CHINA DEMAND WAVE ➡️ Chinese demand has been muted by full reserves and the EV push. ➡️ That protection ends in the second half of the year. ➡️ Rising Chinese buying colliding with constrained Middle East supply and rolling U.S. shale creates the setup for a much larger move higher. THE BOTTOM LINE The market has priced in peace so many times that the real disruption is still invisible on the futures curve. Physical oil is already $120 to $140. Futures will be forced to catch up. This is the bull case the headlines keep trying to kill. #OilBullCase #PhysicalOil #ChokepointsClosed #ShaleDecline #ChinaDemand #EnergyReality #HardAssets HT: YouTube Schwab Network
0:44

THE REAL OIL PRICE IS ALREADY $140 — PAPER MARKET ABOUT TO BREAK David McAlvany, CEO of the McAlvany Financial Group, just exposed the biggest disconnect in the oil market right now. Futures look calm. Physical reality is already screaming. The catch-up is coming and most traders are still asleep. THE PHYSICAL REALITY CHECK ➡️ Futures barely moved today. ➡️ The actual delivered barrel is already trading between $120 and $140. ➡️ That gap cannot last. Paper prices must rise toward physical reality. THE CHOKEPOINT LOCKDOWN ➡️ Crude tanker transits through Bab al-Mandab have collapsed from 140 a day to single digits. ➡️ Some days the number hits zero. ➡️ Attacks have effectively shut the Red Sea route while Hormuz remains under sustained pressure. ➡️ Iran has zero intention of allowing these choke points to normalize. THE US PRODUCTION TRAP ➡️ America is still producing 13.8 million barrels per day. ➡️ Shale wells decline 60 to 70 percent within one to two years without continuous drilling. ➡️ Rig counts are not rising and the majors refuse to fund major new programs without sustained high prices. ➡️ The Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at just 305 million barrels — the lowest level since 1983 and nearly untouchable. THE CHINA DEMAND WAVE ➡️ Chinese demand has been muted by full reserves and the EV push. ➡️ That protection ends in the second half of the year. ➡️ Rising Chinese buying colliding with constrained Middle East supply and rolling U.S. shale creates the setup for a much larger move higher. THE BOTTOM LINE The market has priced in peace so many times that the real disruption is still invisible on the futures curve. Physical oil is already $120 to $140. Futures will be forced to catch up. This is the bull case the headlines keep trying to kill. #OilBullCase #PhysicalOil #ChokepointsClosed #ShaleDecline #ChinaDemand #EnergyReality #HardAssets HT: YouTube Schwab Network

Mark

51,397 次观看 • 1 天前

OIL PRICES SET TO EXPLODE: AMERICA CAN'T FILL THE GULF SHORTFALL Chris Martenson — the prescient analyst who even back then had already anticipated the market reaction to COVID at an early stage as cases in China began to rise — just dropped a no-nonsense breakdown: Oil and gas prices in the United States and Europe are about to explode a lot higher. Trump's boasts about empty tankers rushing in for America's "sweetest oil" sound impressive on the surface, yet the actual data paints a far more urgent picture of limits, shortfalls, and inevitable chaos ahead. THE TANKER BOAST DEBUNKED ➡️ Trump claims massive numbers of completely empty oil tankers are heading to the United States right now to load up on the best oil and gas anywhere. ➡️ Those tankers always arrive empty — that is simply how the shipping system works every single day. ➡️ The map of tankers coming and going around the US ports looks exactly like this year-round. THE CRUDE OIL TRUTH ➡️ The United States remains a net importer of crude oil — importing 6.3 million barrels per day and exporting only 4.1 million in the latest week, for a net import of over 2 million barrels daily. ➡️ Domestic crude production has been flattening out for two and a half years and hit its all-time monthly peak back in October 2025. ➡️ At best the US can squeeze out an extra 1 million barrels per day due to port loading limits and logistics — nowhere near enough to matter. THE NGL CONFUSION ➡️ Officials and headlines proudly declare America is a net petroleum exporter. ➡️ That label lumps in natural gas plant liquids — ethane, propane, butane, and similar light hydrocarbons that make up the bulk of those exports. ➡️ These substances cannot run cars, jets, ships, or pave roads — they serve industrial, heating, and petrochemical uses only. THE MASSIVE SHORTFALL ➡️ OPEC Plus output has dropped by 8 million barrels per day and is now completely missing from global supply. ➡️ The United States cannot come close to covering that gap no matter how many tankers arrive. ➡️ The Persian Gulf disruptions are already driving diesel and gasoline prices higher, with forecasts hitting $4.40 per gallon this month. THE INVENTORY PRESSURE ➡️ Commercial crude and product inventories sit near the low end of normal ranges. ➡️ Jet fuel stocks have been trending down all year while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases remain tiny at roughly 250,000 barrels per day. ➡️ Any ramp-up in exports will pull straight from already tight stocks and push prices even higher. THE BOTTOM LINE The United States does not have surplus crude oil sitting ready to rescue the world — the math simply does not add up. Every extra barrel shipped out now accelerates the drawdown that markets have been ignoring. HT: #OilPrices #GasolineSurge #EnergyCrisis #CrudeReality #OilShortfall #PersianGulf #MarketChaos
1:06

OIL PRICES SET TO EXPLODE: AMERICA CAN'T FILL THE GULF SHORTFALL Chris Martenson — the prescient analyst who even back then had already anticipated the market reaction to COVID at an early stage as cases in China began to rise — just dropped a no-nonsense breakdown: Oil and gas prices in the United States and Europe are about to explode a lot higher. Trump's boasts about empty tankers rushing in for America's "sweetest oil" sound impressive on the surface, yet the actual data paints a far more urgent picture of limits, shortfalls, and inevitable chaos ahead. THE TANKER BOAST DEBUNKED ➡️ Trump claims massive numbers of completely empty oil tankers are heading to the United States right now to load up on the best oil and gas anywhere. ➡️ Those tankers always arrive empty — that is simply how the shipping system works every single day. ➡️ The map of tankers coming and going around the US ports looks exactly like this year-round. THE CRUDE OIL TRUTH ➡️ The United States remains a net importer of crude oil — importing 6.3 million barrels per day and exporting only 4.1 million in the latest week, for a net import of over 2 million barrels daily. ➡️ Domestic crude production has been flattening out for two and a half years and hit its all-time monthly peak back in October 2025. ➡️ At best the US can squeeze out an extra 1 million barrels per day due to port loading limits and logistics — nowhere near enough to matter. THE NGL CONFUSION ➡️ Officials and headlines proudly declare America is a net petroleum exporter. ➡️ That label lumps in natural gas plant liquids — ethane, propane, butane, and similar light hydrocarbons that make up the bulk of those exports. ➡️ These substances cannot run cars, jets, ships, or pave roads — they serve industrial, heating, and petrochemical uses only. THE MASSIVE SHORTFALL ➡️ OPEC Plus output has dropped by 8 million barrels per day and is now completely missing from global supply. ➡️ The United States cannot come close to covering that gap no matter how many tankers arrive. ➡️ The Persian Gulf disruptions are already driving diesel and gasoline prices higher, with forecasts hitting $4.40 per gallon this month. THE INVENTORY PRESSURE ➡️ Commercial crude and product inventories sit near the low end of normal ranges. ➡️ Jet fuel stocks have been trending down all year while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases remain tiny at roughly 250,000 barrels per day. ➡️ Any ramp-up in exports will pull straight from already tight stocks and push prices even higher. THE BOTTOM LINE The United States does not have surplus crude oil sitting ready to rescue the world — the math simply does not add up. Every extra barrel shipped out now accelerates the drawdown that markets have been ignoring. HT: #OilPrices #GasolineSurge #EnergyCrisis #CrudeReality #OilShortfall #PersianGulf #MarketChaos

Mark

87,197 次观看 • 4 个月前

TRUMP CLAIMS VICTORY BUT DAN DICKER SEES THE REAL OIL SUPPLY CRISIS Nobody wants to hear anymore that oil prices will shoot up or go higher. The market dumped oil hard after the latest headlines from Washington. Yet the real question is how big is the risk that prices surge anyway when physical supplies finally run out. Dan Dicker has spent forty five years trading oil and he just pulled back the curtain on a supply picture far worse than the headlines suggest. THE SUPPLY DISASTER UNFOLDING ➡️ Six to eight million barrels of oil are not reaching the global marketplace every day. ➡️ This export disaster has been draining stockpiles for months with no end in sight. ➡️ The world has drawn down its global stockpile area of about half a trillion barrels of oil. ➡️ That drawdown is incredibly significant for what happens next in the marketplace. THE TRADER FEAR AND SHORT POSITION ➡️ Traders have been reluctant to pay up for oil that should already be much higher than one hundred ten or one hundred fifteen dollars. ➡️ They are now spectacularly short at seventy five to seventy six dollars a barrel. ➡️ This price sits at the upper end of the deadly boring range that existed for two years before the conflict. ➡️ Every time traders tried to buy the dip on fundamentals Trump announced another deal and prices collapsed overnight. THE PHYSICAL REALITY HITS HARD ➡️ The physical market will assert itself unless oil starts flowing seriously and rebuilds those drained stockpiles. ➡️ Prices will not rise gradually from seventy five to eighty five dollars. ➡️ A move from seventy five dollars to one hundred thirty five dollars in the space of a month is what Dan Dicker sees ahead. ➡️ Leaders at Chevron and Exxon have already warned that the stockpiles situation is a disaster. THE STRAIT AND THE HIGHER COST FLOOR ➡️ Trump's rhetoric says the straits are open and oil will gush out like never before. ➡️ The physical reality shows tankers are not moving freely yet. ➡️ Even if a sixty day arrangement holds the higher risk in the region will raise the cost of doing business. ➡️ Insurance and mariner pay will increase and that higher floor is not yet reflected in prices. THE BOTTOM LINE Dan Dicker sees a market positioned for relief that is about to collide with a physical supply shortage of historic scale. Traders who stayed short at these levels ignored the math that has been building for three months. The spike is coming unless the oil actually starts moving in volume and soon. #OilPrices #DanDicker #SupplyShortage #OilSpike #EnergyCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #TraderAlert
2:39

TRUMP CLAIMS VICTORY BUT DAN DICKER SEES THE REAL OIL SUPPLY CRISIS Nobody wants to hear anymore that oil prices will shoot up or go higher. The market dumped oil hard after the latest headlines from Washington. Yet the real question is how big is the risk that prices surge anyway when physical supplies finally run out. Dan Dicker has spent forty five years trading oil and he just pulled back the curtain on a supply picture far worse than the headlines suggest. THE SUPPLY DISASTER UNFOLDING ➡️ Six to eight million barrels of oil are not reaching the global marketplace every day. ➡️ This export disaster has been draining stockpiles for months with no end in sight. ➡️ The world has drawn down its global stockpile area of about half a trillion barrels of oil. ➡️ That drawdown is incredibly significant for what happens next in the marketplace. THE TRADER FEAR AND SHORT POSITION ➡️ Traders have been reluctant to pay up for oil that should already be much higher than one hundred ten or one hundred fifteen dollars. ➡️ They are now spectacularly short at seventy five to seventy six dollars a barrel. ➡️ This price sits at the upper end of the deadly boring range that existed for two years before the conflict. ➡️ Every time traders tried to buy the dip on fundamentals Trump announced another deal and prices collapsed overnight. THE PHYSICAL REALITY HITS HARD ➡️ The physical market will assert itself unless oil starts flowing seriously and rebuilds those drained stockpiles. ➡️ Prices will not rise gradually from seventy five to eighty five dollars. ➡️ A move from seventy five dollars to one hundred thirty five dollars in the space of a month is what Dan Dicker sees ahead. ➡️ Leaders at Chevron and Exxon have already warned that the stockpiles situation is a disaster. THE STRAIT AND THE HIGHER COST FLOOR ➡️ Trump's rhetoric says the straits are open and oil will gush out like never before. ➡️ The physical reality shows tankers are not moving freely yet. ➡️ Even if a sixty day arrangement holds the higher risk in the region will raise the cost of doing business. ➡️ Insurance and mariner pay will increase and that higher floor is not yet reflected in prices. THE BOTTOM LINE Dan Dicker sees a market positioned for relief that is about to collide with a physical supply shortage of historic scale. Traders who stayed short at these levels ignored the math that has been building for three months. The spike is coming unless the oil actually starts moving in volume and soon. #OilPrices #DanDicker #SupplyShortage #OilSpike #EnergyCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #TraderAlert

Mark

18,502 次观看 • 1 个月前

TRUMP'S CHEAP OIL FANTASY COLLAPSES: $150 BARREL BY YEAR END Oil trader Troy W. Eckard explains why President Trump is doing everything in his power to drive down the price of crude oil and force the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The entire economic narrative he wants America to believe depends on it. Yet the logistics, the debt, and the supply destruction are already writing a very different ending. THE REAL REASON HE NEEDS CHEAP OIL ➡️ Trump’s core story is the strongest, most booming economy in modern history. ➡️ That story only works with extremely low interest rates. ➡️ Higher energy prices drive inflation and raise the cost of capital across the entire system. ➡️ When oil stays elevated, demand destruction begins and the narrative starts to crack. THE ADVERSARY WINDFALL ➡️ Every dollar higher in oil fills the coffers of Russia, Iran, Iraq and other non-allied nations. ➡️ Billions upon billions flow to the exact countries the United States wants to constrain. ➡️ It becomes almost impossible to limit their global power when high prices keep handing them cash. THE HORMUZ HORNET’S NEST ➡️ The decision to confront Iran over the Strait was a misguided judgment call. ➡️ They do not need nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles. A $25,000 drone can disrupt pipelines, terminals and vessels day after day. ➡️ Roughly 1.5 billion barrels of supply have already been lost since the conflict began. ➡️ Between 12 and 20 million barrels per day remain disrupted with no clear end in sight. THE $40 TRILLION DEBT BOMB ➡️ America now carries about $40 trillion in debt and roughly $1.2 trillion in annual interest payments alone. ➡️ Rising long-term yields signal that buyers of U.S. debt demand higher compensation for rising risk. ➡️ Commercial real estate, residential mortgages and the massive new AI and data-center buildout all depend on cheap energy and cheap capital. ➡️ Higher oil and higher rates threaten to dismantle the financial models those projects were built on. THE PRICE REALITY AHEAD ➡️ Oil is likely headed north of $95 a barrel by the end of December. ➡️ Depending on the severity of ongoing disruption, prices could easily clear $100 within the next 45 days. ➡️ A move toward $150 by year-end is not rhetoric. It is a logical outcome of sustained 12-to-20-million-barrel daily shortfalls. THE BOTTOM LINE Trump’s entire economic plan rests on cheap oil and low rates. The Strait blockade and the supply destruction already underway are delivering the opposite result at scale. This is the sound of an economic narrative colliding with physical reality. #OilTo150 #TrumpOilTrap #HormuzBlockade #DebtBomb #CrudeBullRun #EnergyCrisis #AIEnergyDemand HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing
1:43

TRUMP'S CHEAP OIL FANTASY COLLAPSES: $150 BARREL BY YEAR END Oil trader Troy W. Eckard explains why President Trump is doing everything in his power to drive down the price of crude oil and force the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The entire economic narrative he wants America to believe depends on it. Yet the logistics, the debt, and the supply destruction are already writing a very different ending. THE REAL REASON HE NEEDS CHEAP OIL ➡️ Trump’s core story is the strongest, most booming economy in modern history. ➡️ That story only works with extremely low interest rates. ➡️ Higher energy prices drive inflation and raise the cost of capital across the entire system. ➡️ When oil stays elevated, demand destruction begins and the narrative starts to crack. THE ADVERSARY WINDFALL ➡️ Every dollar higher in oil fills the coffers of Russia, Iran, Iraq and other non-allied nations. ➡️ Billions upon billions flow to the exact countries the United States wants to constrain. ➡️ It becomes almost impossible to limit their global power when high prices keep handing them cash. THE HORMUZ HORNET’S NEST ➡️ The decision to confront Iran over the Strait was a misguided judgment call. ➡️ They do not need nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles. A $25,000 drone can disrupt pipelines, terminals and vessels day after day. ➡️ Roughly 1.5 billion barrels of supply have already been lost since the conflict began. ➡️ Between 12 and 20 million barrels per day remain disrupted with no clear end in sight. THE $40 TRILLION DEBT BOMB ➡️ America now carries about $40 trillion in debt and roughly $1.2 trillion in annual interest payments alone. ➡️ Rising long-term yields signal that buyers of U.S. debt demand higher compensation for rising risk. ➡️ Commercial real estate, residential mortgages and the massive new AI and data-center buildout all depend on cheap energy and cheap capital. ➡️ Higher oil and higher rates threaten to dismantle the financial models those projects were built on. THE PRICE REALITY AHEAD ➡️ Oil is likely headed north of $95 a barrel by the end of December. ➡️ Depending on the severity of ongoing disruption, prices could easily clear $100 within the next 45 days. ➡️ A move toward $150 by year-end is not rhetoric. It is a logical outcome of sustained 12-to-20-million-barrel daily shortfalls. THE BOTTOM LINE Trump’s entire economic plan rests on cheap oil and low rates. The Strait blockade and the supply destruction already underway are delivering the opposite result at scale. This is the sound of an economic narrative colliding with physical reality. #OilTo150 #TrumpOilTrap #HormuzBlockade #DebtBomb #CrudeBullRun #EnergyCrisis #AIEnergyDemand HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing

Mark

35,863 次观看 • 21 天前

CITIGROUP'S MAX LAYTON WARNS: Q3 PINCH POINT COULD SEND OIL TO $180 Max Layton, Citigroup Inc.'s global head of commodities research, just broke down the real dynamics in today's oil market. While many expected physical barrels to surge far above futures amid Iran tensions, the opposite is happening right now. The physical market has converged down to paper prices — and that single fact changes everything about how traders should see the next few months. THE PHYSICAL MARKET REALITY ➡️ Physical barrel prices are not much higher than futures at all. ➡️ The physical market has converged down to paper markets despite the Strait of Hormuz being closed. ➡️ This echoes 2020 when physical oil went negative across the United States even as storage stayed open. THE GLOBAL BUFFER ➡️ The world built a massive 700-800 million barrel inventory cushion in the preceding 12 months — most of it in China. ➡️ We are now eating through those barrels aggressively but the physical impact is spread out over time. ➡️ Even if a deal lands today it would still take months to clear mines, ramp production, and fix logistics. THE Q3 PINCH POINT ➡️ Third quarter shapes up as the critical pinch point. ➡️ Inventories could tighten to levels consistent with $150-180 Brent and $200-plus product prices. ➡️ The price pull from physical is gradual but powerful once that buffer runs low. THE DEAL UNCERTAINTY ➡️ Prices swung wildly from $125 to $98 purely on shifting hopes of a US-Iran deal. ➡️ Predicting what the new Iranian leadership will do remains extremely difficult. ➡️ Max Layton believes the regime could survive years under blockade by printing money and prioritizing its supporters. THE BOTTOM LINE Max Layton sees the oil market far more realistically than most commodity strategists. Any clear sign the regime will quickly do a deal would force him to slash his price forecasts dramatically. The calm you see in physical prices today is just the calm before the storm. #OilMarket #MaxLayton #Citigroup #PhysicalOil #OilPrices #Q3Pinch #IranDeal
1:41

CITIGROUP'S MAX LAYTON WARNS: Q3 PINCH POINT COULD SEND OIL TO $180 Max Layton, Citigroup Inc.'s global head of commodities research, just broke down the real dynamics in today's oil market. While many expected physical barrels to surge far above futures amid Iran tensions, the opposite is happening right now. The physical market has converged down to paper prices — and that single fact changes everything about how traders should see the next few months. THE PHYSICAL MARKET REALITY ➡️ Physical barrel prices are not much higher than futures at all. ➡️ The physical market has converged down to paper markets despite the Strait of Hormuz being closed. ➡️ This echoes 2020 when physical oil went negative across the United States even as storage stayed open. THE GLOBAL BUFFER ➡️ The world built a massive 700-800 million barrel inventory cushion in the preceding 12 months — most of it in China. ➡️ We are now eating through those barrels aggressively but the physical impact is spread out over time. ➡️ Even if a deal lands today it would still take months to clear mines, ramp production, and fix logistics. THE Q3 PINCH POINT ➡️ Third quarter shapes up as the critical pinch point. ➡️ Inventories could tighten to levels consistent with $150-180 Brent and $200-plus product prices. ➡️ The price pull from physical is gradual but powerful once that buffer runs low. THE DEAL UNCERTAINTY ➡️ Prices swung wildly from $125 to $98 purely on shifting hopes of a US-Iran deal. ➡️ Predicting what the new Iranian leadership will do remains extremely difficult. ➡️ Max Layton believes the regime could survive years under blockade by printing money and prioritizing its supporters. THE BOTTOM LINE Max Layton sees the oil market far more realistically than most commodity strategists. Any clear sign the regime will quickly do a deal would force him to slash his price forecasts dramatically. The calm you see in physical prices today is just the calm before the storm. #OilMarket #MaxLayton #Citigroup #PhysicalOil #OilPrices #Q3Pinch #IranDeal

Mark

13,357 次观看 • 3 个月前

CHEVRON CEO: PHYSICAL OIL SHORTAGES HAVE BEGUN AND PRICES WILL FOLLOW Chevron CEO Mike Wirth just delivered a blunt assessment that cuts through the market noise. Traders keep crude pinned between 90 and 100 dollars because they believe the Strait of Hormuz crisis is almost over. The physical facts on the ground tell a far more dangerous story of collapsing inventories and shortages that have already arrived. THE MARKET PSYCHOLOGY TRAP ➡️ Traders see the conflict as closer to the end than the beginning and expect flows to resume very quickly. ➡️ That belief has kept the back end of the futures curve artificially low. ➡️ The psychology has so far prevented prices from moving toward the much higher levels the supply shock would normally justify. THE INVENTORY REALITY ➡️ Crude and product inventories are steadily drawing down in locations around the world right now. ➡️ June and July are going to be critical months as the trajectory heads straight toward the bottom. ➡️ The data shows a clear and concerning path that cannot be wished away. THE SHORTAGE EVIDENCE ➡️ Physical shortages have already appeared in some Asian markets. ➡️ "We've seen some rationing" and adjusted workweeks imposed in affected countries. ➡️ The system carries powerful inertia and turning it around will not be easy or fast. THE US TIGHTNESS ➡️ Distillate fuel inventories in the United States have reached their lowest levels since 2003. ➡️ Refineries are running at maximum utilization while record exports continue to support allies. ➡️ Seasonal demand is rising into an already extremely tight market. THE UNPRECEDENTED SCALE ➡️ Twenty percent of the world's energy production has been cut off for nearly 100 days. ➡️ A billion barrels that should have been in the market are simply not there. ➡️ This is not a normal cycle and the usual patterns may not apply in the usual way. THE BOTTOM LINE Mike Wirth makes it clear that the current price calm rests on hope rather than physical reality and the risk of genuine shortages spreading is rising fast. The calm before the storm is ending. #OilShortages #ChevronCEO #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #InventoryCrash #AsiaRationing #USDistillateLow
1:17

CHEVRON CEO: PHYSICAL OIL SHORTAGES HAVE BEGUN AND PRICES WILL FOLLOW Chevron CEO Mike Wirth just delivered a blunt assessment that cuts through the market noise. Traders keep crude pinned between 90 and 100 dollars because they believe the Strait of Hormuz crisis is almost over. The physical facts on the ground tell a far more dangerous story of collapsing inventories and shortages that have already arrived. THE MARKET PSYCHOLOGY TRAP ➡️ Traders see the conflict as closer to the end than the beginning and expect flows to resume very quickly. ➡️ That belief has kept the back end of the futures curve artificially low. ➡️ The psychology has so far prevented prices from moving toward the much higher levels the supply shock would normally justify. THE INVENTORY REALITY ➡️ Crude and product inventories are steadily drawing down in locations around the world right now. ➡️ June and July are going to be critical months as the trajectory heads straight toward the bottom. ➡️ The data shows a clear and concerning path that cannot be wished away. THE SHORTAGE EVIDENCE ➡️ Physical shortages have already appeared in some Asian markets. ➡️ "We've seen some rationing" and adjusted workweeks imposed in affected countries. ➡️ The system carries powerful inertia and turning it around will not be easy or fast. THE US TIGHTNESS ➡️ Distillate fuel inventories in the United States have reached their lowest levels since 2003. ➡️ Refineries are running at maximum utilization while record exports continue to support allies. ➡️ Seasonal demand is rising into an already extremely tight market. THE UNPRECEDENTED SCALE ➡️ Twenty percent of the world's energy production has been cut off for nearly 100 days. ➡️ A billion barrels that should have been in the market are simply not there. ➡️ This is not a normal cycle and the usual patterns may not apply in the usual way. THE BOTTOM LINE Mike Wirth makes it clear that the current price calm rests on hope rather than physical reality and the risk of genuine shortages spreading is rising fast. The calm before the storm is ending. #OilShortages #ChevronCEO #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #InventoryCrash #AsiaRationing #USDistillateLow

Mark

237,399 次观看 • 2 个月前

FOX NEWS FINALLY DUMPS TRUMP’S HORMUZ OIL LIES Even the network that normally functions as Trump’s personal propaganda machine has been forced to abandon the Strait of Hormuz oil narrative. The facts on the ground and at the pump have become too brutal to spin any longer without looking completely ridiculous. THE FOX SURRENDER ➡️ Fox anchors are now openly admitting gasoline prices are “really bad.” ➡️ One host tried the usual happy talk while the other simply could not pretend anymore. ➡️ When even loyal media starts walking away from the story, the underlying reality has become undeniable. THE GAS PRICE REALITY ➡️ The national average has never been above $4 a gallon this late in the calendar year in any previous year on record. ➡️ Prices have nearly doubled since the conflict began. ➡️ The chart now looks almost identical to the peak pandemic shutdown levels — except this time it is a deliberate policy choice. THE HORMUZ FANTASY ➡️ Trump claims “we have total control over the Strait of Hormuz” and that “we will keep it.” ➡️ He calls the naval presence a “wall of steel” that no one else has ever described that way. ➡️ He insists Iran has no navy, no air force, unpaid soldiers, a decimated IRGC, and is “all talk and no action.” ➡️ Reality keeps answering with higher oil prices and continued disruption. THE HIDDEN LOSSES ➡️ Forty-five MQ-9 Reaper drones have already been lost — roughly a quarter of the entire fleet. ➡️ Each costs between $30 million and $50 million. Total so far: about $1.3 billion. ➡️ These losses went almost entirely unreported while the public was fed the control narrative. THE BOTTOM LINE Fox News is not abandoning the Hormuz story out of principle. They are abandoning it because continuing the lie would make them look like clowns when drivers see the real numbers at the pump every single day. This is what it looks like when propaganda runs out of runway. #HormuzLies #GasPriceExplosion #TrumpControlMyth #FoxSurrenders #ReaperLosses #OilReality #WarCosts
0:35

FOX NEWS FINALLY DUMPS TRUMP’S HORMUZ OIL LIES Even the network that normally functions as Trump’s personal propaganda machine has been forced to abandon the Strait of Hormuz oil narrative. The facts on the ground and at the pump have become too brutal to spin any longer without looking completely ridiculous. THE FOX SURRENDER ➡️ Fox anchors are now openly admitting gasoline prices are “really bad.” ➡️ One host tried the usual happy talk while the other simply could not pretend anymore. ➡️ When even loyal media starts walking away from the story, the underlying reality has become undeniable. THE GAS PRICE REALITY ➡️ The national average has never been above $4 a gallon this late in the calendar year in any previous year on record. ➡️ Prices have nearly doubled since the conflict began. ➡️ The chart now looks almost identical to the peak pandemic shutdown levels — except this time it is a deliberate policy choice. THE HORMUZ FANTASY ➡️ Trump claims “we have total control over the Strait of Hormuz” and that “we will keep it.” ➡️ He calls the naval presence a “wall of steel” that no one else has ever described that way. ➡️ He insists Iran has no navy, no air force, unpaid soldiers, a decimated IRGC, and is “all talk and no action.” ➡️ Reality keeps answering with higher oil prices and continued disruption. THE HIDDEN LOSSES ➡️ Forty-five MQ-9 Reaper drones have already been lost — roughly a quarter of the entire fleet. ➡️ Each costs between $30 million and $50 million. Total so far: about $1.3 billion. ➡️ These losses went almost entirely unreported while the public was fed the control narrative. THE BOTTOM LINE Fox News is not abandoning the Hormuz story out of principle. They are abandoning it because continuing the lie would make them look like clowns when drivers see the real numbers at the pump every single day. This is what it looks like when propaganda runs out of runway. #HormuzLies #GasPriceExplosion #TrumpControlMyth #FoxSurrenders #ReaperLosses #OilReality #WarCosts

Mark

62,143 次观看 • 2 天前

MACGREGOR ALERT: TRUMP'S NEXT IRAN STRIKE IS ALREADY LOADED — WAR NEVER ENDED Col. Doug MacGregor: While the official story keeps switching between “deal is close” and “we will hit them hard,” the actual situation is far colder and more dangerous. There are no talks. The war is not over. And the next round is already being prepared. THE CORE REALITY ➡️ There are zero negotiations between the United States and Iran right now. ➡️ Every public claim that a deal is imminent is simply not true. ➡️ Aircraft that had been sent home after the last round have been replaced. Every available B-52, B-1 and B-2 that can be loaded is now on standby for new strikes. THE MASSIVE PUNCH ➡️ Trump is preparing what he believes will be a decisive blow designed to unhinge the Iranian government. ➡️ Israeli pressure is intense and the political money that helped put him in office is demanding results. ➡️ The gambler’s fallacy is in full effect: one more massive strike and the problem will finally disappear. THE MARKET ILLUSION ➡️ Announcements of possible peace send oil down and stocks up. Threats of more war reverse both. ➡️ That volatility has become a reliable enrichment tool for those who know the messaging schedule in advance. ➡️ The paper price of oil is still being managed while the real delivered price is already far higher. THE HORMUZ AND SUPPLY REALITY ➡️ The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb is at risk. ➡️ Pain has been postponed, not eliminated. Strategic petroleum reserves are approaching critical levels. ➡️ Empty shelves, gasoline shortages and a sharp inflation spike are still ahead. MacGregor’s prediction is simple: the real impact arrives like a ton of bricks this fall. THE GOLD SIGNAL ➡️ Gold and silver are finally beginning to price the actual risk instead of the peace narrative. ➡️ Central banks continue buying. The arithmetic of exploding debt against a near-fixed gold supply points far higher. ➡️ MacGregor sees $15,000 gold arriving well before the more optimistic long-term forecasts. THE BOTTOM LINE Trump is not winding this conflict down. He is reinforcing, loading bombers, and preparing another massive strike because admitting defeat is not an option. The calm is temporary. The storm is already scheduled. This is the sound of a war that never ended and is about to escalate again. #IranWar #MacGregorWarning #TrumpStrike #HormuzCrisis #NoDeal #GoldSurge #CalmBeforeStorm HT: YouTube MR.ROMEO Douglas Macgregor
1:46

MACGREGOR ALERT: TRUMP'S NEXT IRAN STRIKE IS ALREADY LOADED — WAR NEVER ENDED Col. Doug MacGregor: While the official story keeps switching between “deal is close” and “we will hit them hard,” the actual situation is far colder and more dangerous. There are no talks. The war is not over. And the next round is already being prepared. THE CORE REALITY ➡️ There are zero negotiations between the United States and Iran right now. ➡️ Every public claim that a deal is imminent is simply not true. ➡️ Aircraft that had been sent home after the last round have been replaced. Every available B-52, B-1 and B-2 that can be loaded is now on standby for new strikes. THE MASSIVE PUNCH ➡️ Trump is preparing what he believes will be a decisive blow designed to unhinge the Iranian government. ➡️ Israeli pressure is intense and the political money that helped put him in office is demanding results. ➡️ The gambler’s fallacy is in full effect: one more massive strike and the problem will finally disappear. THE MARKET ILLUSION ➡️ Announcements of possible peace send oil down and stocks up. Threats of more war reverse both. ➡️ That volatility has become a reliable enrichment tool for those who know the messaging schedule in advance. ➡️ The paper price of oil is still being managed while the real delivered price is already far higher. THE HORMUZ AND SUPPLY REALITY ➡️ The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb is at risk. ➡️ Pain has been postponed, not eliminated. Strategic petroleum reserves are approaching critical levels. ➡️ Empty shelves, gasoline shortages and a sharp inflation spike are still ahead. MacGregor’s prediction is simple: the real impact arrives like a ton of bricks this fall. THE GOLD SIGNAL ➡️ Gold and silver are finally beginning to price the actual risk instead of the peace narrative. ➡️ Central banks continue buying. The arithmetic of exploding debt against a near-fixed gold supply points far higher. ➡️ MacGregor sees $15,000 gold arriving well before the more optimistic long-term forecasts. THE BOTTOM LINE Trump is not winding this conflict down. He is reinforcing, loading bombers, and preparing another massive strike because admitting defeat is not an option. The calm is temporary. The storm is already scheduled. This is the sound of a war that never ended and is about to escalate again. #IranWar #MacGregorWarning #TrumpStrike #HormuzCrisis #NoDeal #GoldSurge #CalmBeforeStorm HT: YouTube MR.ROMEO Douglas Macgregor

Mark

114,606 次观看 • 11 天前

TRUMP’S IRAN TRAP: $120 PER BARREL OF OIL OR TOTAL DEFEAT –WHY GOLD IS THE BIG WINNER David Woo, former Bank of America’s Head of Global Interest Rates, Currencies and Emerging Market Fixed Income, is still long oil. He sees no clean exit for Trump. Iran wants Brent at $100–$120 to crush U.S. stocks. Markets are still pricing an easy off-ramp that may never arrive. THE OIL REALITY ➡️ Very little traffic is moving through the Strait of Hormuz according to official and Kepler numbers. ➡️ Tankers loaded with Saudi oil in the Red Sea have been turning north through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean since the Houthis stopped attacks after August 5. ➡️ European physical crude is not tight right now because of this rerouting. ➡️ That temporary relief is the only reason Brent sits near $89 instead of much higher. THE IRANIAN PRESSURE PLAY ➡️ Iran’s clear objective is to push oil as high and as fast as possible. ➡️ They would love $100–$120 Brent to drive the U.S. stock market down hard and force Trump’s hand. ➡️ Woo expects Tehran to lean on the Houthis or Iraqi proxies to restart Red Sea tanker attacks soon. ➡️ If those attacks resume, the current rerouting ends and the oil spike arrives. THE CHINA LEVERAGE ➡️ Trump has almost no remaining economic pressure left except massive fines on Chinese banks and refiners for any Iranian oil purchases. ➡️ If he takes that step this week it is bullish oil and bearish for stocks. ➡️ China has already signaled it will retaliate using critical minerals and refining capacity the world needs. ➡️ Woo sees no easy U.S. leverage in that confrontation. BULLISH GOLD: THE BIGGEST U.S. STRATEGIC DEFEAT IF TRUMP DOES TACO ➡️ Accepting those terms would go into the history books as the worst presidential defeat in modern times. ➡️ The U.S. spends a trillion dollars a year on defense while Iran spends roughly $10 billion — and still cannot finish the job. ➡️ Non-Americans already see this strategic defeat as inevitable and are positioning to sell the dollar aggressively. ➡️ That outcome is directly bullish for gold and deeply bearish for the U.S. dollar. ➡️ The military-industrial complex would find such an embarrassment almost impossible to tolerate. THE BOTTOM LINE Trump is trapped between accepting historic defeat or risking a wider conflict that sends oil sharply higher. David Woo is staying long oil because he finds it extremely difficult to see any other clean ending. This is the setup markets still refuse to price. HT: YouTube Wealthion #IranOilShock #TrumpTrap #Hormuz #DavidWoo #LongOil #EscalationRisk #ChinaRetaliation
1:36

TRUMP’S IRAN TRAP: $120 PER BARREL OF OIL OR TOTAL DEFEAT –WHY GOLD IS THE BIG WINNER David Woo, former Bank of America’s Head of Global Interest Rates, Currencies and Emerging Market Fixed Income, is still long oil. He sees no clean exit for Trump. Iran wants Brent at $100–$120 to crush U.S. stocks. Markets are still pricing an easy off-ramp that may never arrive. THE OIL REALITY ➡️ Very little traffic is moving through the Strait of Hormuz according to official and Kepler numbers. ➡️ Tankers loaded with Saudi oil in the Red Sea have been turning north through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean since the Houthis stopped attacks after August 5. ➡️ European physical crude is not tight right now because of this rerouting. ➡️ That temporary relief is the only reason Brent sits near $89 instead of much higher. THE IRANIAN PRESSURE PLAY ➡️ Iran’s clear objective is to push oil as high and as fast as possible. ➡️ They would love $100–$120 Brent to drive the U.S. stock market down hard and force Trump’s hand. ➡️ Woo expects Tehran to lean on the Houthis or Iraqi proxies to restart Red Sea tanker attacks soon. ➡️ If those attacks resume, the current rerouting ends and the oil spike arrives. THE CHINA LEVERAGE ➡️ Trump has almost no remaining economic pressure left except massive fines on Chinese banks and refiners for any Iranian oil purchases. ➡️ If he takes that step this week it is bullish oil and bearish for stocks. ➡️ China has already signaled it will retaliate using critical minerals and refining capacity the world needs. ➡️ Woo sees no easy U.S. leverage in that confrontation. BULLISH GOLD: THE BIGGEST U.S. STRATEGIC DEFEAT IF TRUMP DOES TACO ➡️ Accepting those terms would go into the history books as the worst presidential defeat in modern times. ➡️ The U.S. spends a trillion dollars a year on defense while Iran spends roughly $10 billion — and still cannot finish the job. ➡️ Non-Americans already see this strategic defeat as inevitable and are positioning to sell the dollar aggressively. ➡️ That outcome is directly bullish for gold and deeply bearish for the U.S. dollar. ➡️ The military-industrial complex would find such an embarrassment almost impossible to tolerate. THE BOTTOM LINE Trump is trapped between accepting historic defeat or risking a wider conflict that sends oil sharply higher. David Woo is staying long oil because he finds it extremely difficult to see any other clean ending. This is the setup markets still refuse to price. HT: YouTube Wealthion #IranOilShock #TrumpTrap #Hormuz #DavidWoo #LongOil #EscalationRisk #ChinaRetaliation

Mark

35,627 次观看 • 1 天前