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SITUATION EXPLAINED: A Chinese state-backed company started mass-producing DUV lithography tools, a step below EUV but still significant. • ASML shares fell as much as 6.5%, their lowest since early June, after The Information reported a Shanghai-based, state-backed company began mass-producing immersion DUV lithography machines • The company is...

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$ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet says customers are sharing longer-than-usual visibility into their own business, which has translated into strong order bookings through the first half of 2026, and ASML is adding about 30% EUV capacity in 2027 while evaluating another 30% for 2028. "Based on everything we have said so far, you can imagine that we are having very constructive discussions with our customers on the long term. Their own visibility to their business allows them to share with us also, longer than, I would say, usual visibility on their business. We are talking of course about next year, but also beyond that. Now this has also translated practically into very strong order bookings through the first half of 2026." "If we look into more detail starting with 2027, there we are pretty much already close to receive all the EUV orders we need for 2027. This is with us adding about 30% capacity for EUV in 2027 versus 2026." "When we look at 2028, we have received already a large number of orders from our customers for EUV. This has also invited us very strongly to investigate another 30% increase in our EUV capacity for 2028." "Now, of course, when EUV grows DUV grows as well. Immersion is going to be important. Also for 2027 and for 2028 we are going to look into a 30% increase of our capacity for both years." ____ Follow Fireside Alpha for more daily highlights of key business and technology conversations.
1:24

$ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet says customers are sharing longer-than-usual visibility into their own business, which has translated into strong order bookings through the first half of 2026, and ASML is adding about 30% EUV capacity in 2027 while evaluating another 30% for 2028. "Based on everything we have said so far, you can imagine that we are having very constructive discussions with our customers on the long term. Their own visibility to their business allows them to share with us also, longer than, I would say, usual visibility on their business. We are talking of course about next year, but also beyond that. Now this has also translated practically into very strong order bookings through the first half of 2026." "If we look into more detail starting with 2027, there we are pretty much already close to receive all the EUV orders we need for 2027. This is with us adding about 30% capacity for EUV in 2027 versus 2026." "When we look at 2028, we have received already a large number of orders from our customers for EUV. This has also invited us very strongly to investigate another 30% increase in our EUV capacity for 2028." "Now, of course, when EUV grows DUV grows as well. Immersion is going to be important. Also for 2027 and for 2028 we are going to look into a 30% increase of our capacity for both years." ____ Follow Fireside Alpha for more daily highlights of key business and technology conversations.

Fireside Alpha

30,680 views • 29 days ago

The CEO of ASML delivered the most diplomatically worded indictment of European tech policy you'll ever hear (Save this). His core argument is simple, sovereignty without innovation is a slogan. You cannot declare yourself independent from American and Chinese AI if you have nothing of your own to be independent with. The data makes his point for him because only 4 of the world's 50 largest tech companies are European. 73% of all foundational AI models developed since 2017 came from the US, 15% from China, and Europe basically has none. Europe's best AI researchers train at ETH Zurich, Oxford, and TU Munich then move to San Francisco. The regulation problem is what makes European founders the most furious. The EU has approximately 100 tech-focused laws and over 270 active digital regulators. The AI Act, GDPR, the Digital Services Act, and the Digital Markets Act each add compliance cost, slow deployment, and make Europe a structurally worse place to build a company at scale. ASML itself is actually the counterexample that proves the rule. Fouquet is on an active internal mission to strip out the bureaucratic weight that accumulated as the company tripled in size, returning engineers to doing engineering instead of sitting in meetings. ASML reinvests 30% of profit into R&D and operates on a 15-year technology roadmap with the discipline of a deep-tech startup. It is culturally more like a Silicon Valley company that happens to be located in Eindhoven and that is precisely why it is the only European tech company that the entire world cannot function without. Fouquet's conclusion is the most honest thing a major European executive has said Europe has ASML, a large consumer market, and not much else in the AI stack. Being a customer is not the same as being a builder, and in a world where the AI stack is controlled by whoever builds it, being a big buyer means being permanently dependent on the goodwill of whoever you're buying from.
2:44

The CEO of ASML delivered the most diplomatically worded indictment of European tech policy you'll ever hear (Save this). His core argument is simple, sovereignty without innovation is a slogan. You cannot declare yourself independent from American and Chinese AI if you have nothing of your own to be independent with. The data makes his point for him because only 4 of the world's 50 largest tech companies are European. 73% of all foundational AI models developed since 2017 came from the US, 15% from China, and Europe basically has none. Europe's best AI researchers train at ETH Zurich, Oxford, and TU Munich then move to San Francisco. The regulation problem is what makes European founders the most furious. The EU has approximately 100 tech-focused laws and over 270 active digital regulators. The AI Act, GDPR, the Digital Services Act, and the Digital Markets Act each add compliance cost, slow deployment, and make Europe a structurally worse place to build a company at scale. ASML itself is actually the counterexample that proves the rule. Fouquet is on an active internal mission to strip out the bureaucratic weight that accumulated as the company tripled in size, returning engineers to doing engineering instead of sitting in meetings. ASML reinvests 30% of profit into R&D and operates on a 15-year technology roadmap with the discipline of a deep-tech startup. It is culturally more like a Silicon Valley company that happens to be located in Eindhoven and that is precisely why it is the only European tech company that the entire world cannot function without. Fouquet's conclusion is the most honest thing a major European executive has said Europe has ASML, a large consumer market, and not much else in the AI stack. Being a customer is not the same as being a builder, and in a world where the AI stack is controlled by whoever builds it, being a big buyer means being permanently dependent on the goodwill of whoever you're buying from.

Milk Road AI

16,194 views • 1 month ago

EUV machines are the most complicated tools humans make. Their supply chain has over 10,000 individual suppliers, and any one of them not scaling fast enough can bottleneck the entire AI industry. An EUV tool fires lasers at a tiny tin droplet three times in precise sequence, blasting it hard enough to emit EUV light. That light bounces off 18 multilayer mirrors onto the wafer. Meanwhile, the two platforms inside the machine - one holding the stencil, one holding the chip - are flying back and forth at 9Gs in opposite directions. The successive passes have to land on top of each other to within 3 nanometers. If any part of this is off, yield goes to zero. Take just one component. The mirrors are mostly supplied by Carl Zeiss, who have probably fewer than a thousand people working on them. In turn, Carl Zeiss rely on machines from Switzerland to deposit each of the layers, and use a coating process co-developed with a different German company. None of these companies have woken up. They’re gradually increasing production, but nowhere near the levels necessary for what the labs want by the end of the decade. Dylan Patel predicts production can't scale beyond about 100 EUV machines per year by 2030, no matter how much money gets thrown at the problem. In the medium term this is the key bottleneck on scaling.
4:09

EUV machines are the most complicated tools humans make. Their supply chain has over 10,000 individual suppliers, and any one of them not scaling fast enough can bottleneck the entire AI industry. An EUV tool fires lasers at a tiny tin droplet three times in precise sequence, blasting it hard enough to emit EUV light. That light bounces off 18 multilayer mirrors onto the wafer. Meanwhile, the two platforms inside the machine - one holding the stencil, one holding the chip - are flying back and forth at 9Gs in opposite directions. The successive passes have to land on top of each other to within 3 nanometers. If any part of this is off, yield goes to zero. Take just one component. The mirrors are mostly supplied by Carl Zeiss, who have probably fewer than a thousand people working on them. In turn, Carl Zeiss rely on machines from Switzerland to deposit each of the layers, and use a coating process co-developed with a different German company. None of these companies have woken up. They’re gradually increasing production, but nowhere near the levels necessary for what the labs want by the end of the decade. Dylan Patel predicts production can't scale beyond about 100 EUV machines per year by 2030, no matter how much money gets thrown at the problem. In the medium term this is the key bottleneck on scaling.

Dwarkesh Patel

154,086 views • 4 months ago

🇨🇳 Chinese brands seem to be replacing Western brands in China Just like Chinese-owned Luckin Coffee replacing American-owned Starbucks in my tweet below You see it with lots of other shops too Here's Maia, a Lululemon/Alo Yoga clone, but with sizes specifically for Asian women, which the Western brands are, well, too Western to be able to niche in to Then they also make them a bit cheaper than the Western brands but with same or higher quality And many to most Chinese customers will just switch over to the Chinese brand You have to think on a geopolitical level what this means, we can put all the tarrifs we want on Chinese products, but they'll do the same back to us, and meanwhile one of the biggest markets for Western brands with 1.4 billion people is lost to us when we get too expensive / low quality for them Again these are not cheap rip offs, it's real brands with quality materials that they're switching over to The same with GPUs of course, we can ban China from using ASML chip making machines, but they'll just develop their own and by then we've lost them at customers I don't have a dog in this fight but it's very interesting to see the macro economics and politics actively happening on the ground!
2:06

🇨🇳 Chinese brands seem to be replacing Western brands in China Just like Chinese-owned Luckin Coffee replacing American-owned Starbucks in my tweet below You see it with lots of other shops too Here's Maia, a Lululemon/Alo Yoga clone, but with sizes specifically for Asian women, which the Western brands are, well, too Western to be able to niche in to Then they also make them a bit cheaper than the Western brands but with same or higher quality And many to most Chinese customers will just switch over to the Chinese brand You have to think on a geopolitical level what this means, we can put all the tarrifs we want on Chinese products, but they'll do the same back to us, and meanwhile one of the biggest markets for Western brands with 1.4 billion people is lost to us when we get too expensive / low quality for them Again these are not cheap rip offs, it's real brands with quality materials that they're switching over to The same with GPUs of course, we can ban China from using ASML chip making machines, but they'll just develop their own and by then we've lost them at customers I don't have a dog in this fight but it's very interesting to see the macro economics and politics actively happening on the ground!

@levelsio

1,210,717 views • 8 months ago

Seyed Mohammad Marandi replies to question about Russia and China's involvement in Iran. Glenn Diesen: "The American media as well as the European is full of accusations that Russia could be assisting Iran with intelligence with possible targeting. What do we know actually about China and Russia being involved?" Mohammad Marandi: "I don't know the details, but what I do know is that the Chinese and the Russians and the Iranians have moved closer to each other. This has been ongoing for years, but after the 12-day war, they've moved even closer. Iran has 15 neighbors. It's a large country. All the transit routes really have to go through Iran in Asia that would connect West Asia and East Asia, and the the Persian Gulf to to Europe and the Caucuses and Central Asia. So, the ability for Iran to receive weapons or anything that would help with the war is there. It could be done through its eastern borders. It can be done through its northern borders and there would be nothing that the United States could do about it. And the Chinese and the Russians can easily use these routes to trade with Iran, for Iran to send what what Iran purchases. I think it's clear as day that the the Russians do not want the United States to succeed in West Asia, and the Chinese obviously don't want it either. ...Zionist expansionism would basically mean further empowerment for the Trump regime and the United States, and they would have control over all the oil that are no longer leaving the Persian Gulf as we speak, but they would have control over everything and that would put China in a very very dangerous situation. More than dangerous. So, I think it's only natural to assume that the Chinese and the Russians are going to cooperate with Iran more. What the United States has done is that it has cemented the relationship between Russia, Iran and China for the years to come. They cemented it."
4:48

Seyed Mohammad Marandi replies to question about Russia and China's involvement in Iran. Glenn Diesen: "The American media as well as the European is full of accusations that Russia could be assisting Iran with intelligence with possible targeting. What do we know actually about China and Russia being involved?" Mohammad Marandi: "I don't know the details, but what I do know is that the Chinese and the Russians and the Iranians have moved closer to each other. This has been ongoing for years, but after the 12-day war, they've moved even closer. Iran has 15 neighbors. It's a large country. All the transit routes really have to go through Iran in Asia that would connect West Asia and East Asia, and the the Persian Gulf to to Europe and the Caucuses and Central Asia. So, the ability for Iran to receive weapons or anything that would help with the war is there. It could be done through its eastern borders. It can be done through its northern borders and there would be nothing that the United States could do about it. And the Chinese and the Russians can easily use these routes to trade with Iran, for Iran to send what what Iran purchases. I think it's clear as day that the the Russians do not want the United States to succeed in West Asia, and the Chinese obviously don't want it either. ...Zionist expansionism would basically mean further empowerment for the Trump regime and the United States, and they would have control over all the oil that are no longer leaving the Persian Gulf as we speak, but they would have control over everything and that would put China in a very very dangerous situation. More than dangerous. So, I think it's only natural to assume that the Chinese and the Russians are going to cooperate with Iran more. What the United States has done is that it has cemented the relationship between Russia, Iran and China for the years to come. They cemented it."

Eva Karene Bartlett

23,102 views • 5 months ago

China Invests in Absorbing Russian Knowledge Over the past few years, various Chinese officers have visited the front lines in Ukraine to learn from the conflict, according to a CNN article from September. China has been doing this long before officers from Vietnam and Laos, who have also been near the front lines to learn. The same thing is happening on the Ukrainian side, with various NATO officers accompanying and learning from the conflict. However, the cooperation between Russians and Chinese is much deeper. Russian instructors are involved in Chinese training on trenches and drone usage, bringing modern assault and shelter tactics. Some time ago, I wrote this post: It discussed the great technological advances of the Chinese army, but how they occurred in a very accelerated manner and without field experience. The Chinese seem to be investing in Ukraine's experience and intense training to compensate for all that. Although the Chinese have become a powerhouse in missiles and drones, and have good radars, there is an excessive dependence on technology that is capable of weakening rather than strengthening. War is still defined by the quality of armor, innovations learned from the battlefield, and trust in one's own equipment, which must withstand sun, rain, desert, and snow. The Chinese will continue investing in absorbing this real-world learning in the coming years, but they face major challenges in improving their equipment for conventional warfare, treating technology as an additive rather than the main foundation.
0:29

China Invests in Absorbing Russian Knowledge Over the past few years, various Chinese officers have visited the front lines in Ukraine to learn from the conflict, according to a CNN article from September. China has been doing this long before officers from Vietnam and Laos, who have also been near the front lines to learn. The same thing is happening on the Ukrainian side, with various NATO officers accompanying and learning from the conflict. However, the cooperation between Russians and Chinese is much deeper. Russian instructors are involved in Chinese training on trenches and drone usage, bringing modern assault and shelter tactics. Some time ago, I wrote this post: It discussed the great technological advances of the Chinese army, but how they occurred in a very accelerated manner and without field experience. The Chinese seem to be investing in Ukraine's experience and intense training to compensate for all that. Although the Chinese have become a powerhouse in missiles and drones, and have good radars, there is an excessive dependence on technology that is capable of weakening rather than strengthening. War is still defined by the quality of armor, innovations learned from the battlefield, and trust in one's own equipment, which must withstand sun, rain, desert, and snow. The Chinese will continue investing in absorbing this real-world learning in the coming years, but they face major challenges in improving their equipment for conventional warfare, treating technology as an additive rather than the main foundation.

Patricia Marins

81,769 views • 6 months ago

The Chinese have limited understanding of the West. In recent weeks, Chinese military circles have extensively discussed the U.S. operation in Venezuela, attributing its success primarily to the decapitation of the regime. All Chinese analyses center on the collapse of the defense chain and the subservience that resulted from the leadership vacuum. The Chinese seem almost incapable, at least initially, of considering the reverse scenario: that U.S. intelligence, by infiltrating circles close to Maduro over many months and negotiating compensations, managed to neutralize the entire chain, delivering Maduro in exchange for preserving the governing structure. The Chinese are analyzing the U.S. approach in the context of Taiwan, focusing on decapitation of the central leadership. But suppose the Chinese were willing to spend tens of millions of dollars. Even then, the level of corruption in Taiwan is not comparable to the situation among Venezuela’s military. Although more than 150 people have been indicted since 2020 for spying for China, and the majority of them are active or retired military personnel,this does not mean the high command would be susceptible to the kind of structural sabotage seen in Venezuela. The Chinese already know every inch of Taiwan’s governmental structure and conduct military training on full-scale replicas, constructed as a mock district since last year. However, what would the situation look like under a pro-China government? Could similar self-sabotage actions occur, as seen in Venezuela? It seems to me that the Chinese will also consider this scenario. Even so, the Chinese still have much to learn and will come to realize that the level of negotiations between the U.S. and Latin American governments is quite different from the dynamics they maintain with Taiwan.
0:20

The Chinese have limited understanding of the West. In recent weeks, Chinese military circles have extensively discussed the U.S. operation in Venezuela, attributing its success primarily to the decapitation of the regime. All Chinese analyses center on the collapse of the defense chain and the subservience that resulted from the leadership vacuum. The Chinese seem almost incapable, at least initially, of considering the reverse scenario: that U.S. intelligence, by infiltrating circles close to Maduro over many months and negotiating compensations, managed to neutralize the entire chain, delivering Maduro in exchange for preserving the governing structure. The Chinese are analyzing the U.S. approach in the context of Taiwan, focusing on decapitation of the central leadership. But suppose the Chinese were willing to spend tens of millions of dollars. Even then, the level of corruption in Taiwan is not comparable to the situation among Venezuela’s military. Although more than 150 people have been indicted since 2020 for spying for China, and the majority of them are active or retired military personnel,this does not mean the high command would be susceptible to the kind of structural sabotage seen in Venezuela. The Chinese already know every inch of Taiwan’s governmental structure and conduct military training on full-scale replicas, constructed as a mock district since last year. However, what would the situation look like under a pro-China government? Could similar self-sabotage actions occur, as seen in Venezuela? It seems to me that the Chinese will also consider this scenario. Even so, the Chinese still have much to learn and will come to realize that the level of negotiations between the U.S. and Latin American governments is quite different from the dynamics they maintain with Taiwan.

Patricia Marins

22,305 views • 6 months ago

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said China often has access to the European market in ways that European companies do not enjoy with the same ease in China. He said Europe cannot allow China to have one set of rules while European companies operate under a completely different set of rules. That is the punchline. For years, Europe has restricted or excluded Chinese companies under the language of “security.” Huawei. ZTE. Chinese telecom firms. Chinese solar products. Chinese EVs. Chinese batteries. Chinese infrastructure. Whenever Chinese companies become too competitive, Europe suddenly discovers “risk,” “dependency,” “distortion,” or “strategic vulnerability.” But when China responds with its own controls, tariffs, rare earth restrictions, or market measures, Europe starts crying about fairness. Classic. China has not banned European industrial giants from the Chinese market the way Europe has tried to politically suffocate Chinese companies. Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes, Airbus, Siemens, BASF, Schneider, LVMH, and countless European firms have made fortunes in China for decades. China opened its market, built supply chains, created demand, and let European companies profit massively. Europe took the money. Then it blocked Chinese firms, joined U.S. containment, restricted high-end exports, attacked Chinese clean-tech industries, and now complains that China enjoys unfair access. If Europe really wants “one set of rules,” it should be careful what it asks for. Because China can play that game too. The difference is simple: Europe complains about access while using access as a weapon. China has shown restraint. Perhaps too much restraint. If Beijing treated European companies the way Europe treats Chinese companies, Brussels would discover very quickly what “same rules” actually means.
1:11

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said China often has access to the European market in ways that European companies do not enjoy with the same ease in China. He said Europe cannot allow China to have one set of rules while European companies operate under a completely different set of rules. That is the punchline. For years, Europe has restricted or excluded Chinese companies under the language of “security.” Huawei. ZTE. Chinese telecom firms. Chinese solar products. Chinese EVs. Chinese batteries. Chinese infrastructure. Whenever Chinese companies become too competitive, Europe suddenly discovers “risk,” “dependency,” “distortion,” or “strategic vulnerability.” But when China responds with its own controls, tariffs, rare earth restrictions, or market measures, Europe starts crying about fairness. Classic. China has not banned European industrial giants from the Chinese market the way Europe has tried to politically suffocate Chinese companies. Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes, Airbus, Siemens, BASF, Schneider, LVMH, and countless European firms have made fortunes in China for decades. China opened its market, built supply chains, created demand, and let European companies profit massively. Europe took the money. Then it blocked Chinese firms, joined U.S. containment, restricted high-end exports, attacked Chinese clean-tech industries, and now complains that China enjoys unfair access. If Europe really wants “one set of rules,” it should be careful what it asks for. Because China can play that game too. The difference is simple: Europe complains about access while using access as a weapon. China has shown restraint. Perhaps too much restraint. If Beijing treated European companies the way Europe treats Chinese companies, Brussels would discover very quickly what “same rules” actually means.

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

27,677 views • 1 month ago

China is on the verge of cracking the US's advanced microchip monopoly. Behind the scenes, Americans are PANICKING. And that's why they issued an insane "order" last week, saying that NO ONE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD (including China) is allowed to use the Huawei Ascend microchip. The US has a long record of arguing that they have a legal right to control use or sales of anything anywhere in the world that may have an American element in its development history. . HERE'S THE STORY The US is keeping a tight hold on advanced microchips from Taiwan, China—including the super-powerful Nvidia chips necessary for AI. So the Chinese company Huawei developed a way of linking less advanced chips together to replicate (and even beat) the computing power of the Nvidia chip, 300 petaflops to 180 petaflops. Chinese nerds did this by using optical connections to make instantaneous transmission between 384 chips. The result was the CloudMatrix 384, which delivers MORE computing power than the top Nvidia chip. But the US says that the Huawei chips inside it include elements, or chiplets, from TSMC in the Chinese province of Taiwan, and will make sure these are not available any more. Now mainland China needs to develop its own chiplets, which won't be easy. . WHO WILL WIN? Top experts like William Huo (whose background is Intel Inc) say we should be rooting for China. That's because the US says it in this fight to maintain global AI dominance, while China will share the breakthrough with the world to create a fairer, safer planet. Who will win this battle? This story is unfolding in real time.
5:04

China is on the verge of cracking the US's advanced microchip monopoly. Behind the scenes, Americans are PANICKING. And that's why they issued an insane "order" last week, saying that NO ONE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD (including China) is allowed to use the Huawei Ascend microchip. The US has a long record of arguing that they have a legal right to control use or sales of anything anywhere in the world that may have an American element in its development history. . HERE'S THE STORY The US is keeping a tight hold on advanced microchips from Taiwan, China—including the super-powerful Nvidia chips necessary for AI. So the Chinese company Huawei developed a way of linking less advanced chips together to replicate (and even beat) the computing power of the Nvidia chip, 300 petaflops to 180 petaflops. Chinese nerds did this by using optical connections to make instantaneous transmission between 384 chips. The result was the CloudMatrix 384, which delivers MORE computing power than the top Nvidia chip. But the US says that the Huawei chips inside it include elements, or chiplets, from TSMC in the Chinese province of Taiwan, and will make sure these are not available any more. Now mainland China needs to develop its own chiplets, which won't be easy. . WHO WILL WIN? Top experts like William Huo (whose background is Intel Inc) say we should be rooting for China. That's because the US says it in this fight to maintain global AI dominance, while China will share the breakthrough with the world to create a fairer, safer planet. Who will win this battle? This story is unfolding in real time.

Nury Vittachi

28,460 views • 1 year ago

SMARTMATIC & DOMINION voting machines are the foreign puppet masters of the global election fraud cartel. Dominion Voting Systems—purportedly a U.S.-based company with ties to Venezuela operating with its true "center of gravity" in Serbia, backed by Chinese influence. Venezuelan, Chinese, and Serbian engineers hold admin keys to manipulate US elections. There is a pattern of deception with around 15 different cheating methods, but this backdoor exploit stands out for its stealth, scale, and capability to be accessed from almost anywhere. Smartmatic's election-rigging source code, owned by Venezuela's narco-regime (Cartel del Sol), powers Dominion systems and is designed to flip votes completely undetected. The key ties lay within the Serbian Hub. Dominion's Belgrade office houses swing-state voter data on Huawei servers – directly linked to CCP-controlled Huawei in Hong Kong. CCP fingerprints are all over this and the shadow player. The hardware is built in Beijing and snuck through Taiwan in violation of US law. Huawei flagged as natsec threat by the FCC. The "Glitch Trap" is one of the easiest and most common methods of election fraud. Pre-election "glitches" in Dominion machines are no accident. These prompt emergency patches that conveniently open backdoors, allowing remote access from Dominion's Serbian offices. Now, it's on to the foreign side of the actual election manipulation. Far from mere R&D, the Serbian hub is described as the operational core, running on Huawei servers—Chinese technology at the heart of U.S. elections. Chinese nationals, funneled through a military institute, log in during elections to manipulate results. Virtual manipulation is crucial to the facade until the completion of the manipulation occurs. Using virtual machines software-based servers created invisibly within county election systems—intruders reportedly alter databases at will. Once done, they collapse the virtual setup, leaving no trace unless a deep forensic audit uncovers the digital footprints. This isn't just fraud it's a national security threat. It's foreign interference by Maduro's cartel, China's CCP, and the globalist deep state cabal to steal democracies in the U.S. and in 100+ other countries worldwide.
10:10

SMARTMATIC & DOMINION voting machines are the foreign puppet masters of the global election fraud cartel. Dominion Voting Systems—purportedly a U.S.-based company with ties to Venezuela operating with its true "center of gravity" in Serbia, backed by Chinese influence. Venezuelan, Chinese, and Serbian engineers hold admin keys to manipulate US elections. There is a pattern of deception with around 15 different cheating methods, but this backdoor exploit stands out for its stealth, scale, and capability to be accessed from almost anywhere. Smartmatic's election-rigging source code, owned by Venezuela's narco-regime (Cartel del Sol), powers Dominion systems and is designed to flip votes completely undetected. The key ties lay within the Serbian Hub. Dominion's Belgrade office houses swing-state voter data on Huawei servers – directly linked to CCP-controlled Huawei in Hong Kong. CCP fingerprints are all over this and the shadow player. The hardware is built in Beijing and snuck through Taiwan in violation of US law. Huawei flagged as natsec threat by the FCC. The "Glitch Trap" is one of the easiest and most common methods of election fraud. Pre-election "glitches" in Dominion machines are no accident. These prompt emergency patches that conveniently open backdoors, allowing remote access from Dominion's Serbian offices. Now, it's on to the foreign side of the actual election manipulation. Far from mere R&D, the Serbian hub is described as the operational core, running on Huawei servers—Chinese technology at the heart of U.S. elections. Chinese nationals, funneled through a military institute, log in during elections to manipulate results. Virtual manipulation is crucial to the facade until the completion of the manipulation occurs. Using virtual machines software-based servers created invisibly within county election systems—intruders reportedly alter databases at will. Once done, they collapse the virtual setup, leaving no trace unless a deep forensic audit uncovers the digital footprints. This isn't just fraud it's a national security threat. It's foreign interference by Maduro's cartel, China's CCP, and the globalist deep state cabal to steal democracies in the U.S. and in 100+ other countries worldwide.

The SCIF

180,591 views • 7 months ago

Micron is going to be a $4,000 stock and the CEO just told you exactly why in one interview (Save this). Micron is no longer a chip company but rather a America's monopoly on the most strategically critical material in the AI buildout. It's the only western company manufacturing memory at advanced nodes, sitting on $200 billion in committed domestic capex, with every unit of its highest value product already sold. let's start with the supply reality, Mehrotra said Micron can currently meet only 50% to two thirds of the demand from its key customers. That shortage will last well beyond 2027, and meaningful new supply from anyone in the industry does not arrive until 2028 at the earliest. Two more years of demand outpacing supply in a market growing 168% year over year and that is the floor on the bull case. Now layer on what makes this cycle structurally different from every one before it. Micron is the only American memory manufacturer on earth, Samsung and SK Hynix are South Korean. In a world where AI infrastructure has become a declared national security priority where Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Trade Ambassador Greer personally showed up to a fab dedication in Manassas, Virginia being the only US memory company is not just a competitive advantage. It is a government backed structural monopoly on the most critical input to the US AI buildout, backed by $6.2 billion in CHIPS Act subsidies across Idaho, New York, and Virginia. The $200 billion buildout spans Manassas for DDR4 defense and industrial memory, Boise for leading-edge DRAM with first wafers out mid 2027, a second Boise HBM fab with first wafers by end of 2028, and the Syracuse megafab, the largest semiconductor facility in US history, breaking ground January 2026 with up to four fabs over time. Combined, these sites take Micron's domestic production from 10% of its total output today to 40% over the next decade, and create 90,000 jobs in the process. The business model transformation is the real story. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, our complete Micron valuation model incorporating the $200 billion domestic buildout and our entire AI thesis. Link below.
10:05

Micron is going to be a $4,000 stock and the CEO just told you exactly why in one interview (Save this). Micron is no longer a chip company but rather a America's monopoly on the most strategically critical material in the AI buildout. It's the only western company manufacturing memory at advanced nodes, sitting on $200 billion in committed domestic capex, with every unit of its highest value product already sold. let's start with the supply reality, Mehrotra said Micron can currently meet only 50% to two thirds of the demand from its key customers. That shortage will last well beyond 2027, and meaningful new supply from anyone in the industry does not arrive until 2028 at the earliest. Two more years of demand outpacing supply in a market growing 168% year over year and that is the floor on the bull case. Now layer on what makes this cycle structurally different from every one before it. Micron is the only American memory manufacturer on earth, Samsung and SK Hynix are South Korean. In a world where AI infrastructure has become a declared national security priority where Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Trade Ambassador Greer personally showed up to a fab dedication in Manassas, Virginia being the only US memory company is not just a competitive advantage. It is a government backed structural monopoly on the most critical input to the US AI buildout, backed by $6.2 billion in CHIPS Act subsidies across Idaho, New York, and Virginia. The $200 billion buildout spans Manassas for DDR4 defense and industrial memory, Boise for leading-edge DRAM with first wafers out mid 2027, a second Boise HBM fab with first wafers by end of 2028, and the Syracuse megafab, the largest semiconductor facility in US history, breaking ground January 2026 with up to four fabs over time. Combined, these sites take Micron's domestic production from 10% of its total output today to 40% over the next decade, and create 90,000 jobs in the process. The business model transformation is the real story. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, our complete Micron valuation model incorporating the $200 billion domestic buildout and our entire AI thesis. Link below.

Milk Road AI

235,568 views • 2 months ago

A New 957-Room Chinese Hotel Just Opened in the City Chinese Investors Are Leaving Huan Hai Hotel has opened on Ocheuteal Beach in Sihanoukville. It is the centerpiece of Huanhai Bolai International, a $168 million Chinese-held development approved by the Council for the Development of Cambodia in late 2022, built by the state-owned Chinese contractor Shanghai Baoye and promoted as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. The 957-room, five-star tower is now operating, its facade lit at night and fountains running at the entrance. It is also hiring. A recruitment notice lists roles from sales and marketing to Chinese-language translators, with monthly salaries of $800 to $1,500, well above the local norm for hospitality work. The pay points to a property aimed squarely at Chinese guests. The timing is what stands out. CamboJA reported in April that a second wave of Chinese departures has followed the anti-scam crackdown that began in late 2025, and a property consultant cited by the outlet estimated that around 400 buildings remain stalled across downtown Sihanoukville. The same consultant was direct about the cause. Scam compounds had become a major source of occupancy and economic activity in the city, and dismantling them removes much of the demand those towers were built to serve. That is the environment Huan Hai is entering. Most of the large compounds are gone, with some smaller operations reportedly still active, but the city is quiet and its reputation is slower to recover. Drawing Chinese tourists and investors back will take more than a single crackdown. It will require an effort sustained long enough, and visibly enough, that the scam industry does not simply return once attention moves elsewhere.
0:21

A New 957-Room Chinese Hotel Just Opened in the City Chinese Investors Are Leaving Huan Hai Hotel has opened on Ocheuteal Beach in Sihanoukville. It is the centerpiece of Huanhai Bolai International, a $168 million Chinese-held development approved by the Council for the Development of Cambodia in late 2022, built by the state-owned Chinese contractor Shanghai Baoye and promoted as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. The 957-room, five-star tower is now operating, its facade lit at night and fountains running at the entrance. It is also hiring. A recruitment notice lists roles from sales and marketing to Chinese-language translators, with monthly salaries of $800 to $1,500, well above the local norm for hospitality work. The pay points to a property aimed squarely at Chinese guests. The timing is what stands out. CamboJA reported in April that a second wave of Chinese departures has followed the anti-scam crackdown that began in late 2025, and a property consultant cited by the outlet estimated that around 400 buildings remain stalled across downtown Sihanoukville. The same consultant was direct about the cause. Scam compounds had become a major source of occupancy and economic activity in the city, and dismantling them removes much of the demand those towers were built to serve. That is the environment Huan Hai is entering. Most of the large compounds are gone, with some smaller operations reportedly still active, but the city is quiet and its reputation is slower to recover. Drawing Chinese tourists and investors back will take more than a single crackdown. It will require an effort sustained long enough, and visibly enough, that the scam industry does not simply return once attention moves elsewhere.

Jacob in Cambodia 🇺🇸 🇰🇭

17,346 views • 2 months ago

“It’s just to highlight just how much dominance America has over Iran right now. It has dominated the Iranian theocracy’s skyline. It is able to strike anywhere at any time, at will. It has demonstrated that not just by the strike on Kargh Island and by sparing Iran’s oil refineries there, but also by decapitating its leadership time and again. The American and Israeli alliance in striking Iran is able to strike anywhere at any time at will. And what that really indicates is that the Iranian regime stands completely isolated, has no chance of winning. But crucially, the Americans and Israelis would not be dominating the skyline in Iran if the Russians and the Chinese had not taken a step back. The only way you stop another country dominating a sky is by sending your own jets to stop them. Iran doesn’t have an air force. It would have had to have been the Russian or Chinese. The Chinese aren’t going to get involved anytime soon. And the Russians clearly, as they’ve indicated, have decided to stand back. And in fact, from Syria, the Russian Navy voluntarily withdrew. So all of this appears to us to reconfirm the idea that the world is being divided into spheres of influence, as we have said repeatedly on radical media. Venezuela was part of that. Syria was part of it. The American sphere of influence will include Venezuela and Cuba. The Middle East will be settled in the way that we’re currently witnessing for it to emerge eventually its own sphere of influence led by the Sunni Muslim Arabs of the region. Russia gets its own sphere of influence and Ukraine will be settled in Russia’s favour and China will get its own sphere of influence and Taiwan will be settled probably in China’s favour. So you end up with a Russian sphere, a Chinese sphere, a NATO stroke Western sphere and a Middle Eastern sphere” Maajid Nawaz for WARRIOR CREED:
1:55

“It’s just to highlight just how much dominance America has over Iran right now. It has dominated the Iranian theocracy’s skyline. It is able to strike anywhere at any time, at will. It has demonstrated that not just by the strike on Kargh Island and by sparing Iran’s oil refineries there, but also by decapitating its leadership time and again. The American and Israeli alliance in striking Iran is able to strike anywhere at any time at will. And what that really indicates is that the Iranian regime stands completely isolated, has no chance of winning. But crucially, the Americans and Israelis would not be dominating the skyline in Iran if the Russians and the Chinese had not taken a step back. The only way you stop another country dominating a sky is by sending your own jets to stop them. Iran doesn’t have an air force. It would have had to have been the Russian or Chinese. The Chinese aren’t going to get involved anytime soon. And the Russians clearly, as they’ve indicated, have decided to stand back. And in fact, from Syria, the Russian Navy voluntarily withdrew. So all of this appears to us to reconfirm the idea that the world is being divided into spheres of influence, as we have said repeatedly on radical media. Venezuela was part of that. Syria was part of it. The American sphere of influence will include Venezuela and Cuba. The Middle East will be settled in the way that we’re currently witnessing for it to emerge eventually its own sphere of influence led by the Sunni Muslim Arabs of the region. Russia gets its own sphere of influence and Ukraine will be settled in Russia’s favour and China will get its own sphere of influence and Taiwan will be settled probably in China’s favour. So you end up with a Russian sphere, a Chinese sphere, a NATO stroke Western sphere and a Middle Eastern sphere” Maajid Nawaz for WARRIOR CREED:

أبو عمّار

20,640 views • 4 months ago

An 82-year-old Cuban pilot went viral on Chinese social media after recounting his friendship with and studies in China during the 1960s and asking about the cost of a flight from Havana to Beijing to a Chinese tourist. Living in a cramped room with just one bed in Cuba, the 82-year-old is known as "Tito" on Chinese social media. When a Chinese female tourist walked by his door, he tried to converse with her despite her language barrier and initial shock. The girl later discovered that Tito was a Cuban pilot who studied aviation in Shanxi Province, China, from 1961 to 1963. Tito showed her his Chinese PLA graduation certificate and told her that he missed China and that most of his pilot friends had already died. After that, he asked how much a plane ticket from Havana to Beijing would cost. The girl later shared the video on Chinese social media, describing Tito as "the lonely grandfather in Cuba." She mentioned that Tito kept a little notebook in which he planned to jot down his inquiries for the Chinese and his wish lists for sites to visit in China. It appears that he had made repeated attempts to strike up conversations with Asian tourists who passed his door, but they all thought he was strange and quickly left. In Tito's notebook, you can still see Chinese expressions like "How are you?" "When will you leave?" and "When are you planning to return?" Tito's story has moved many Chinese internet users, who are rallying to help him get a plane ticket to China or locate his Chinese friends. In September 1961, the Cuban Air Force chose 223 young pilots (average age less than 20) to study in China. They were among the first international students to come to China, as the Chinese netizens learnt later. A Chinese netizen later claimed on social media that his grandfather was Tito's teacher at the time. The story of Tito has gone viral on Chinese social media. The official account of the Chinese PLA Air Force left a comment under Tito’s video, stating that they had been attempting to get in touch with Tito. The comment said that the Chinese PLA will never forget a friend like Tito and that their friendship will transcend space and time. Today is the Lantern Festival in China, a time for family reunions. The Chinese embassy in Cuba invited Tito and other Cuban pilots who had studied in China for their youth to attend the festival feast, where they reminisced and sang many Chinese songs together. The Chinese have an old proverb: "滴水之恩当涌泉相报" (A drop of water shall be returned with a burst of spring), being grateful is a virtue in Chinese culture; we always give back when someone helps us. The life and work of Canadian surgeon Norman Bethune is a topic included in Chinese school curricula; his heroic contributions to our cause during World War II are emphasized in our textbooks, and his legacy lives on in China. John Rabe, a German merchant who rescued some 250,000 Chinese people from the Nanjing Massacre, and his family are still very much loved and respected by the Chinese people. Thomas Rabe, a doctor at the medicinal Faculty of Heidelberg University in Heidelberg, southwest Germany, and grandson of John Rabe, sent a plea to the Chinese embassy in Germany in March 2020 for medicinal supplies to help his hospital battle the COVID-19 pandemic. In April 2020, with all of the necessary assistance and coordination, medical supplies given from various sources, including medicines, protective suits, and masks, arrived in Germany from China. Chinese embassy staff raced from Berlin to Heidelberg, a distance of 700 kilometers, to expedite the delivery of supplies to the Heidelberg administration, the Medical Faculty of Heidelberg University, and Dr. Thomas Rabe.
0:31

An 82-year-old Cuban pilot went viral on Chinese social media after recounting his friendship with and studies in China during the 1960s and asking about the cost of a flight from Havana to Beijing to a Chinese tourist. Living in a cramped room with just one bed in Cuba, the 82-year-old is known as "Tito" on Chinese social media. When a Chinese female tourist walked by his door, he tried to converse with her despite her language barrier and initial shock. The girl later discovered that Tito was a Cuban pilot who studied aviation in Shanxi Province, China, from 1961 to 1963. Tito showed her his Chinese PLA graduation certificate and told her that he missed China and that most of his pilot friends had already died. After that, he asked how much a plane ticket from Havana to Beijing would cost. The girl later shared the video on Chinese social media, describing Tito as "the lonely grandfather in Cuba." She mentioned that Tito kept a little notebook in which he planned to jot down his inquiries for the Chinese and his wish lists for sites to visit in China. It appears that he had made repeated attempts to strike up conversations with Asian tourists who passed his door, but they all thought he was strange and quickly left. In Tito's notebook, you can still see Chinese expressions like "How are you?" "When will you leave?" and "When are you planning to return?" Tito's story has moved many Chinese internet users, who are rallying to help him get a plane ticket to China or locate his Chinese friends. In September 1961, the Cuban Air Force chose 223 young pilots (average age less than 20) to study in China. They were among the first international students to come to China, as the Chinese netizens learnt later. A Chinese netizen later claimed on social media that his grandfather was Tito's teacher at the time. The story of Tito has gone viral on Chinese social media. The official account of the Chinese PLA Air Force left a comment under Tito’s video, stating that they had been attempting to get in touch with Tito. The comment said that the Chinese PLA will never forget a friend like Tito and that their friendship will transcend space and time. Today is the Lantern Festival in China, a time for family reunions. The Chinese embassy in Cuba invited Tito and other Cuban pilots who had studied in China for their youth to attend the festival feast, where they reminisced and sang many Chinese songs together. The Chinese have an old proverb: "滴水之恩当涌泉相报" (A drop of water shall be returned with a burst of spring), being grateful is a virtue in Chinese culture; we always give back when someone helps us. The life and work of Canadian surgeon Norman Bethune is a topic included in Chinese school curricula; his heroic contributions to our cause during World War II are emphasized in our textbooks, and his legacy lives on in China. John Rabe, a German merchant who rescued some 250,000 Chinese people from the Nanjing Massacre, and his family are still very much loved and respected by the Chinese people. Thomas Rabe, a doctor at the medicinal Faculty of Heidelberg University in Heidelberg, southwest Germany, and grandson of John Rabe, sent a plea to the Chinese embassy in Germany in March 2020 for medicinal supplies to help his hospital battle the COVID-19 pandemic. In April 2020, with all of the necessary assistance and coordination, medical supplies given from various sources, including medicines, protective suits, and masks, arrived in Germany from China. Chinese embassy staff raced from Berlin to Heidelberg, a distance of 700 kilometers, to expedite the delivery of supplies to the Heidelberg administration, the Medical Faculty of Heidelberg University, and Dr. Thomas Rabe.

Eivor

251,988 views • 1 year ago

The Ukrainian mistake that put an entire strategy into question Until the end of 2024, Ukrainian defenses using drones were very effective, slowing down not only the Russian advance but also inflicting significant casualties. During this period, the Russians heavily invested in drones, from factories to the development of fiber-optic drones, which were still produced in small quantities. By the end of 2024, a second Chinese restriction on the sale of components further complicated these transactions for both sides. Both industries were already manufacturing various components in small quantities, but still heavily dependent on Chinese imports. While the Russians expanded their intermediary networks to bypass restrictions and maintain Chinese imports, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense decided to invest in local companies to produce fiber-optic cables. Essentially, all other components continued to be imported from China via intermediaries, but strangely, several Ukrainian companies started manufacturing low-quality cables and received government funding. The result was an unprecedented superiority of Russian drones on the battlefield, while Ukrainian fiber-optic drones were produced in much smaller numbers, with limited range and low-quality fibers that broke easily. This mistake of nationalizing such a sensitive component was initiated by the Ministry and not due to Chinese restrictions, since all other components continued to be imported through intermediaries. In my view, it was a bold strategy that ultimately failed, compromising the Ukrainian advantage until that moment. You either win the war or make money. It's hard to do both. It will be a major challenge for Ukraine to regain its front-line capacity as it previously was, facing a Russian production of 500,000 fiber-optic drones annually. This significant error weakened Ukrainian defense, which was already operating with low manpower and high desertion rates, but was still adjusting and maintaining the front through the hiring of mercenaries for many months. Given the scarcity of equipment on the front line, there is doubt whether lowering recruitment age will have the desired effect to sustain the front for a long period. It would also be necessary to resolve the issue with fiber-optic drones and for Ukraine to receive another batch of equipment from 2023, which I believe is unlikely. The situation involves multiple aspects of deterioration that have persisted for a long time, continuing to impact the AFU. While financial aid is being maintained, the absence of American support with weaponry is being felt as a crucial issue.
0:28

The Ukrainian mistake that put an entire strategy into question Until the end of 2024, Ukrainian defenses using drones were very effective, slowing down not only the Russian advance but also inflicting significant casualties. During this period, the Russians heavily invested in drones, from factories to the development of fiber-optic drones, which were still produced in small quantities. By the end of 2024, a second Chinese restriction on the sale of components further complicated these transactions for both sides. Both industries were already manufacturing various components in small quantities, but still heavily dependent on Chinese imports. While the Russians expanded their intermediary networks to bypass restrictions and maintain Chinese imports, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense decided to invest in local companies to produce fiber-optic cables. Essentially, all other components continued to be imported from China via intermediaries, but strangely, several Ukrainian companies started manufacturing low-quality cables and received government funding. The result was an unprecedented superiority of Russian drones on the battlefield, while Ukrainian fiber-optic drones were produced in much smaller numbers, with limited range and low-quality fibers that broke easily. This mistake of nationalizing such a sensitive component was initiated by the Ministry and not due to Chinese restrictions, since all other components continued to be imported through intermediaries. In my view, it was a bold strategy that ultimately failed, compromising the Ukrainian advantage until that moment. You either win the war or make money. It's hard to do both. It will be a major challenge for Ukraine to regain its front-line capacity as it previously was, facing a Russian production of 500,000 fiber-optic drones annually. This significant error weakened Ukrainian defense, which was already operating with low manpower and high desertion rates, but was still adjusting and maintaining the front through the hiring of mercenaries for many months. Given the scarcity of equipment on the front line, there is doubt whether lowering recruitment age will have the desired effect to sustain the front for a long period. It would also be necessary to resolve the issue with fiber-optic drones and for Ukraine to receive another batch of equipment from 2023, which I believe is unlikely. The situation involves multiple aspects of deterioration that have persisted for a long time, continuing to impact the AFU. While financial aid is being maintained, the absence of American support with weaponry is being felt as a crucial issue.

Patricia Marins

130,519 views • 9 months ago

A few comments on the Qwen 3.5 Omni model I've now watched all the clips and read up on it a bit. And it's truly impressive. The voice model, in particular, is impressive because Alibaba has clearly put a lot of effort into its development, ensuring that the conversation not only sounds natural but also that *interruptions* from clearing the throat, coughing, etc., don't cause the call to drop. They're working on the naturalness of the conversation, and that's something that can hardly be overestimated, because the biggest drawback in voice modes remains their artificiality, insofar as every small interruption leads to a drop-off. But what's even more interesting is how this is embedded. Alibaba is a Chinese company, yet they've clearly included American scientists in their clips (no Chinese-American accent); the message is clear: we're ready to tackle the Western market as well. The release is thus aimed directly at the West and is intended to position Qwen as a (cost-effective) standard. Similar to how EVs from China are increasingly being sold in the West, even though until a few years ago it was exactly the other way around (the West selling cars to China), AI is now supposed to move from East to West. *That* is the truly exciting message here. This is not a judgment, but a factual and objective analysis.
1:47

A few comments on the Qwen 3.5 Omni model I've now watched all the clips and read up on it a bit. And it's truly impressive. The voice model, in particular, is impressive because Alibaba has clearly put a lot of effort into its development, ensuring that the conversation not only sounds natural but also that *interruptions* from clearing the throat, coughing, etc., don't cause the call to drop. They're working on the naturalness of the conversation, and that's something that can hardly be overestimated, because the biggest drawback in voice modes remains their artificiality, insofar as every small interruption leads to a drop-off. But what's even more interesting is how this is embedded. Alibaba is a Chinese company, yet they've clearly included American scientists in their clips (no Chinese-American accent); the message is clear: we're ready to tackle the Western market as well. The release is thus aimed directly at the West and is intended to position Qwen as a (cost-effective) standard. Similar to how EVs from China are increasingly being sold in the West, even though until a few years ago it was exactly the other way around (the West selling cars to China), AI is now supposed to move from East to West. *That* is the truly exciting message here. This is not a judgment, but a factual and objective analysis.

Chubby♨️

17,553 views • 4 months ago

China is planning to spend around 2 trillion yuan ($295 billion) over the next five years to build data centers across the country At least 80% of all AI chips must come from domestic suppliers, primarily Huawei. Nvidia and AMD are locked out by design. Nvidia once held a 95% market share in China's AI market. Now? Zero. America did not lose China’s AI chip market because China “closed its doors,” but because America chose to weaponize chips, sanctions, export controls, entity lists, national security hysteria, and technological apartheid against its own largest customer. Washington took the world’s largest chip consumption market — a market that could have funded American semiconductor dominance for another generation — and taught it the most important lesson: Never let your future depend on a supplier that can be turned off by one paranoid empire. So China did what any serious civilization-state would do. It localized. It substituted. It built its own stack. It turned a customer relationship into a sovereignty project. And the same people who tried to choke Huawei are watching Huawei become the backbone of China’s AI infrastructure. This is a textbook own goal. America thought it was denying​ China the future. In reality, it compelled​ China to architect​ the future beyond​ America.
1:02

China is planning to spend around 2 trillion yuan ($295 billion) over the next five years to build data centers across the country At least 80% of all AI chips must come from domestic suppliers, primarily Huawei. Nvidia and AMD are locked out by design. Nvidia once held a 95% market share in China's AI market. Now? Zero. America did not lose China’s AI chip market because China “closed its doors,” but because America chose to weaponize chips, sanctions, export controls, entity lists, national security hysteria, and technological apartheid against its own largest customer. Washington took the world’s largest chip consumption market — a market that could have funded American semiconductor dominance for another generation — and taught it the most important lesson: Never let your future depend on a supplier that can be turned off by one paranoid empire. So China did what any serious civilization-state would do. It localized. It substituted. It built its own stack. It turned a customer relationship into a sovereignty project. And the same people who tried to choke Huawei are watching Huawei become the backbone of China’s AI infrastructure. This is a textbook own goal. America thought it was denying​ China the future. In reality, it compelled​ China to architect​ the future beyond​ America.

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

36,831 views • 2 months ago

Japan just bet $16 BILLION on a chip startup that has never shipped a single chip to a paying customer. It's the biggest Hail Mary in modern tech history. But the real problem is about what happens IF it works... On April 11th, Japan approved another $4 billion in subsidies for a company called Rapidus. Total government investment: $16.3 billion. Here's what Rapidus is: Founded in 2022. 4 years old. Zero commercial chips shipped. Zero proven yields. No IPO planned until 2031. Their stated goal: Produce 2-nanometer chips by 2027 at a facility in Hokkaido. For context, 2nm is the absolute bleeding edge of semiconductor manufacturing. Only one company on Earth can do it today: TSMC. TSMC alone is spending $50 BILLION in capital expenditure THIS year. Rapidus has $16 billion TOTAL. To catch up to a company that's been at this for 40 years. In 18 months. Now look at the global picture: United States: CHIPS Act. $280 billion in subsidies. Musk's Terafab project just announced. Bernstein estimates the REAL cost to hit Terafab's stated targets is $5 TRILLION. Europe: €43 billion. China: Entire state apparatus behind SMIC and Huawei. DeepSeek V4 launching on 100% Chinese silicon this month. Japan: $16.3 billion on Rapidus. South Korea: Samsung spending tens of billions to reclaim the 2nm lead. Every major economy on Earth is now treating chip manufacturing as a national security priority. And every single one is building the same thing: Domestic 2nm capacity for AI. But nobody is asking the obvious question... What happens when ALL of them succeed? Right now, Nvidia buys every wafer TSMC can make. "Insatiable demand." Now imagine 2028. TSMC still at full capacity. Samsung has caught up. Intel's 18A is shipping. Rapidus is live. Terafab is online. China's SMIC producing 3nm at scale. Supply has tripled. Has AI demand tripled? Probably not. Model efficiency is improving faster than compute demand. Google's TurboQuant cut memory requirements by 6X with no accuracy loss. DeepSeek proved you can train frontier models for a fraction of the cost. Smaller models are eating bigger ones. The current AI chip shortage isn't permanent. It's a temporary demand spike colliding with a slow supply chain. And governments are now committing hundreds of billions of dollars to solve a problem that might not exist by the time their factories come online. This is how every semiconductor glut in history has started: Governments panic about a shortage. Throw money at capacity. The capacity comes online. Everybody discovers at the same time that demand wasn't what they thought. In 1996, memory prices collapsed 80% when Korean fabs came online. In 2001, the sector lost $300 billion in value. The difference in 2026 is that the bets are bigger than any private company has ever been willing to make. Every one of these bets is the same political statement: We refuse to be dependent on Taiwan. Every government on Earth is making it with taxpayer money. And none of them are coordinating. In 1984, Japan did this exact thing with memory chips. Flooded the market. The entire US memory industry collapsed within 3 years. Then 15 years later, Korea did the same thing to Japan. Then 15 years later, China did it to Korea. The cycle isn't new. What's new is the SCALE. And the fact that nobody wants to be the country that admits the shortage might be temporary. So the money keeps flowing. The fabs keep getting built. And somewhere around 2028, the same analysts currently calling AI chips "insatiable" will start writing articles about the great semiconductor glut of the late 2020s. The question isn't whether Rapidus succeeds. The question is whether ANY of these bets can succeed at the same time. They can't. One of these countries is going to end up holding the bag. Japan is betting $16 billion that it won't be them. What do you think?
0:40

Japan just bet $16 BILLION on a chip startup that has never shipped a single chip to a paying customer. It's the biggest Hail Mary in modern tech history. But the real problem is about what happens IF it works... On April 11th, Japan approved another $4 billion in subsidies for a company called Rapidus. Total government investment: $16.3 billion. Here's what Rapidus is: Founded in 2022. 4 years old. Zero commercial chips shipped. Zero proven yields. No IPO planned until 2031. Their stated goal: Produce 2-nanometer chips by 2027 at a facility in Hokkaido. For context, 2nm is the absolute bleeding edge of semiconductor manufacturing. Only one company on Earth can do it today: TSMC. TSMC alone is spending $50 BILLION in capital expenditure THIS year. Rapidus has $16 billion TOTAL. To catch up to a company that's been at this for 40 years. In 18 months. Now look at the global picture: United States: CHIPS Act. $280 billion in subsidies. Musk's Terafab project just announced. Bernstein estimates the REAL cost to hit Terafab's stated targets is $5 TRILLION. Europe: €43 billion. China: Entire state apparatus behind SMIC and Huawei. DeepSeek V4 launching on 100% Chinese silicon this month. Japan: $16.3 billion on Rapidus. South Korea: Samsung spending tens of billions to reclaim the 2nm lead. Every major economy on Earth is now treating chip manufacturing as a national security priority. And every single one is building the same thing: Domestic 2nm capacity for AI. But nobody is asking the obvious question... What happens when ALL of them succeed? Right now, Nvidia buys every wafer TSMC can make. "Insatiable demand." Now imagine 2028. TSMC still at full capacity. Samsung has caught up. Intel's 18A is shipping. Rapidus is live. Terafab is online. China's SMIC producing 3nm at scale. Supply has tripled. Has AI demand tripled? Probably not. Model efficiency is improving faster than compute demand. Google's TurboQuant cut memory requirements by 6X with no accuracy loss. DeepSeek proved you can train frontier models for a fraction of the cost. Smaller models are eating bigger ones. The current AI chip shortage isn't permanent. It's a temporary demand spike colliding with a slow supply chain. And governments are now committing hundreds of billions of dollars to solve a problem that might not exist by the time their factories come online. This is how every semiconductor glut in history has started: Governments panic about a shortage. Throw money at capacity. The capacity comes online. Everybody discovers at the same time that demand wasn't what they thought. In 1996, memory prices collapsed 80% when Korean fabs came online. In 2001, the sector lost $300 billion in value. The difference in 2026 is that the bets are bigger than any private company has ever been willing to make. Every one of these bets is the same political statement: We refuse to be dependent on Taiwan. Every government on Earth is making it with taxpayer money. And none of them are coordinating. In 1984, Japan did this exact thing with memory chips. Flooded the market. The entire US memory industry collapsed within 3 years. Then 15 years later, Korea did the same thing to Japan. Then 15 years later, China did it to Korea. The cycle isn't new. What's new is the SCALE. And the fact that nobody wants to be the country that admits the shortage might be temporary. So the money keeps flowing. The fabs keep getting built. And somewhere around 2028, the same analysts currently calling AI chips "insatiable" will start writing articles about the great semiconductor glut of the late 2020s. The question isn't whether Rapidus succeeds. The question is whether ANY of these bets can succeed at the same time. They can't. One of these countries is going to end up holding the bag. Japan is betting $16 billion that it won't be them. What do you think?

Ricardo

35,151 views • 4 months ago

The Xiaohongshu #TikTokRefugee phenomenon is truly fascinating and really exciting if it perdures. It would be the first time ever that we would have a social media app where Western and Chinese users interact at scale. Pretty ironic when this is spurred by an attempt by the U.S. government to get rid of TikTok because it is "Chinese" when it has no Chinese users nor Chinese content. I've been testing the app 👇 and the phenomenon is real: a huge proportion of the posts in the main timeline are by "Tiktok refugees", with many posts being "refugees" asking questions to the Chinese user base. The app is still missing some obvious features that would make it more usable to an international user base. You can have the app in English but it doesn't look like you can translate posts or videos yet. Which means that if you don't speak or read Chinese, you can only understand the posts that are in English (and vice-versa: no translation for English content into Chinese either). My bet is that the Xiaohongshu tech team in Shanghai (where Xiaohongshu is based) must already be working hard on this. All in all this illustrates several important and actually quite hopeful lessons. Firstly, this shapes up to be yet another U.S. attempt to contain China backfiring: instead of reducing Chinese tech influence, it's potentially creating an even more direct bridge between Chinese and Western users on a platform that's actually based in China, unlike TikTok which operates separately from its Chinese version Douyin. Secondly, there's obviously significant untapped demand for genuine cross-cultural social media platforms, despite (or perhaps because of) the geopolitical tensions. Many people obviously do not want the digital iron curtain that the U.S. is trying to erect here: this is all happening organically without any promotional push from Xiaohongshu, people genuinely do not want an artificially divided world. Lastly, less obvious but no less important, the business dimension is particularly interesting. Xiaohongshu isn't just another social media app - it's fundamentally an e-commerce platform where social features emerged organically around shopping. If this trend continues, this has the potential to reshape cross-border commerce between China and the U.S. in really profound ways. Many "TikTok refugees" are actually small business owners who built their success on TikTok: imagine the potential of a platform that gives them direct access to Chinese consumers! This, alongside Chinese sellers finding new ways to reach American audiences, could create entirely new patterns of trade, bypassing traditional intermediaries. This would be the icing on the cake with the other ironies: when governments are trying to 'de-risk' and decouple supply chains, Xiaohongshu could help the ground-level reality of ordinary entrepreneurs and consumers move in the exact opposite direction. Anyhow, whether this phenomenon lasts or not, it reveals something that should give us all some measure of hope: while politicians and policymakers focus on trying to divide the world and fearmonger, ordinary people seem more interested in finding ways to connect. They're more interested in bridges than walls, and that's a good thing!
2:59

The Xiaohongshu #TikTokRefugee phenomenon is truly fascinating and really exciting if it perdures. It would be the first time ever that we would have a social media app where Western and Chinese users interact at scale. Pretty ironic when this is spurred by an attempt by the U.S. government to get rid of TikTok because it is "Chinese" when it has no Chinese users nor Chinese content. I've been testing the app 👇 and the phenomenon is real: a huge proportion of the posts in the main timeline are by "Tiktok refugees", with many posts being "refugees" asking questions to the Chinese user base. The app is still missing some obvious features that would make it more usable to an international user base. You can have the app in English but it doesn't look like you can translate posts or videos yet. Which means that if you don't speak or read Chinese, you can only understand the posts that are in English (and vice-versa: no translation for English content into Chinese either). My bet is that the Xiaohongshu tech team in Shanghai (where Xiaohongshu is based) must already be working hard on this. All in all this illustrates several important and actually quite hopeful lessons. Firstly, this shapes up to be yet another U.S. attempt to contain China backfiring: instead of reducing Chinese tech influence, it's potentially creating an even more direct bridge between Chinese and Western users on a platform that's actually based in China, unlike TikTok which operates separately from its Chinese version Douyin. Secondly, there's obviously significant untapped demand for genuine cross-cultural social media platforms, despite (or perhaps because of) the geopolitical tensions. Many people obviously do not want the digital iron curtain that the U.S. is trying to erect here: this is all happening organically without any promotional push from Xiaohongshu, people genuinely do not want an artificially divided world. Lastly, less obvious but no less important, the business dimension is particularly interesting. Xiaohongshu isn't just another social media app - it's fundamentally an e-commerce platform where social features emerged organically around shopping. If this trend continues, this has the potential to reshape cross-border commerce between China and the U.S. in really profound ways. Many "TikTok refugees" are actually small business owners who built their success on TikTok: imagine the potential of a platform that gives them direct access to Chinese consumers! This, alongside Chinese sellers finding new ways to reach American audiences, could create entirely new patterns of trade, bypassing traditional intermediaries. This would be the icing on the cake with the other ironies: when governments are trying to 'de-risk' and decouple supply chains, Xiaohongshu could help the ground-level reality of ordinary entrepreneurs and consumers move in the exact opposite direction. Anyhow, whether this phenomenon lasts or not, it reveals something that should give us all some measure of hope: while politicians and policymakers focus on trying to divide the world and fearmonger, ordinary people seem more interested in finding ways to connect. They're more interested in bridges than walls, and that's a good thing!

Arnaud Bertrand

277,317 views • 1 year ago