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SITUATION EXPLAINED: A stealth model on OpenRouter is beating Fable and Sol on coding, and nobody knows who made it. • Ox Alpha has a 1M token context window, text, image, and video input, free for a week, with capacity for 100 trillion tokens a day • On a...

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Chinese AI models are wiping billions off Big Tech right now. Google just lost $200 billion in a single day, and the model it needed to fight back still isn't ready. Gemini 3.5 Pro, Google's most powerful model, is months behind schedule. Alphabet stock dropped 4.4% that same day. The Deepseek moment is happening again, and the new model is FAR bigger. On the same day Google's delay leaked, a Beijing lab called Moonshot released Kimi K3. It is the largest open model ever built, with 2.8 trillion parameters. It took the number one spot on the Frontend Code Arena, a live coding leaderboard, passing Anthropic's best model. And Moonshot is giving it away for free on July 27. The genius part: Anyone with enough computers can download it and run a frontier level AI without paying a cent to a US company. A single task on Kimi K3 costs about 94 cents. The same work on some American models costs nearly double. So why would a company keep paying premium prices for a model it can now get for free? The entire US AI business is built on selling access to models that cost billions to train. If a free Chinese version does most of the same work, that pricing power starts to crack. And Kimi is close to the best. On one closely watched intelligence ranking it scored 57, just behind the top American models GPT-5.6 Sol and Fable 5, and ahead of Claude Opus 4.8. Bank of America told clients that Kimi proves Chinese labs can keep making big leaps even with limited chips. And the founder of Moonshot, Yang Zhilin, learned to build AI as a researcher INSIDE Google. Google literally wrote the 2017 paper that made all of these models possible. Now the people who studied its work are using it to destroy Google, and handing it out for free. What happens next: Kimi K3's weights go public on July 27. Google reports earnings on July 22, and everyone will be asking the same question about Gemini. If free models keep topping the charts, every valuation built on paid AI access has to be rewritten. What do you think?

Ricardo

47,790 views • 1 month ago

China just released an open source AI model that matches the best closed models from OpenAI and Anthropic. Gavin Baker explained exactly how they did it and the answer should concern every American AI lab. The model is called GLM 5.2. It was built by Z. AI. You get 744 billion parameters, 1 million token context window and its MIT license, meaning anyone can download it, fork it, build a company on it, with no restrictions and no Dario. It scored 51 points on the artificial analysis intelligence index. The highest score any open weight model has ever achieved. It beat GPT 5.5 on the frontier software engineering benchmark. It trails Claude Opus 4.8 by less than one percentage point. And it costs 85% less to run than GPT 5.5 for comparable performance. Gavin Baker said on the All-In podcast that this model has challenged some of his beliefs. Then he explained how China built it. The method is called distillation. Just think of tens of thousands of phones and computers running simultaneously, all hitting the frontier model APIs through masked accounts, asking specific questions, and harvesting what happens inside the model when it answers. Every reasoning step, every token. The entire thinking process gets recorded and fed back into the Chinese model during training. It is a cheat sheet. It is the answer key to the exam. And here is the part that should worry everyone. Sacks said it plainly. China was already nine months behind American models. But now that GLM 5.2 is good enough to run its own reinforcement learning, it can improve itself without needing to distill from American models anymore. The cheat sheet let them get close enough to start writing their own answers. Sacks said we are six months behind on the model and 24 months behind on silicon and they are only a few months behind in total. The Z. AI founder told Elon Musk directly that open weight fable-level capability will be here before Q1 2027. Every restriction Anthropic lobbied for, every self-imposed safety guardrail, every month of delay in releasing American frontier models accelerated this. The Chinese labs were not under those restrictions. They were not going to wait. The composable model future Gavin described, where every enterprise runs a frontier model alongside their own fine-tuned open weight model, is coming regardless of what American labs do next. The question is just whether the open weight half of that stack is American or Chinese. Right now it is Chinese. WATCH THE FULL PODCAST ON The All-In Podcast

Ihtesham Ali

86,452 views • 2 months ago

Big Tech's $1 trillion AI moat just got DESTROYED by a free Chinese download. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are pouring fortunes into chips and data centers because they have been told that whoever builds the biggest model wins, and that lead becomes a fortress no one can cross. Last week a lab called Zhipu - it trades in Hong Kong as Knowledge Atlas Technology - released a model called GLM-5.2 and destroyed that idea in a single afternoon. It's open weights under an MIT license, which means anyone on earth can download it and build on it for free. On the coding and design benchmarks that actually matter, it went toe to toe with the best models America has - matching even Anthropic's Mythos-class work and beating OpenAI's flagship outright on the coding test everyone watches. And it does the work at roughly one-sixth the price. ONE-SIXTH And barely a year and a half ago a model called DeepSeek did the same thing and wiped the better part of $600 billion off Nvidia in a single session. This was only the first chapter. You cannot dig a moat around something your competitor is happy to give away. If 95% of frontier capability is free, open, and runs at a fraction of the cost, then the hundreds of billions being spent to defend the last 5% is NOT a moat. And now for the irony: The company that just proved the moat is worthless is itself the single most absurd valuation I have seen in a long career of watching absurd valuations. Zhipu did about $105 million in revenue last year and lost more than 4x what it took in. This week the market handed it a value of roughly $128 billion - at the peak, north of a 1,000x sales - on a float so thin that barely 4% of the stock actually trades. THINK about this... A company drowning in losses, doing 9 figures of revenue, priced like it does hundreds of billions, with almost nothing available to sell. So we now have a bubble in China detonating the entire justification for a bubble in America. Two manias pointed straight at each other. This is the lesson I've spent 45 years trying to beat into people. You can ignore valuation for a long time but you cannot ignore it forever. A moat story sold a trillion dollars of spending, a free download just exposed it, and the company that exposed it is priced for a fantasy of its own. When the picks-and-shovels crowd loses its monopoly on the picks, you want to be very careful what you are paying for the shovels. Numbers don't lie. Shoutout to Limitless - they were onto this story before almost anyone on Wall Street. One of the sharpest AI shows out there.

George Noble

69,688 views • 2 months ago