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SITUATION EXPLAINED: Leopold Aschenbrenner lore. • Born and raised in Germany by two doctors, educated at the John F. Kennedy School in Berlin • At 14, he spoke at the German Green Party's national conference, in 2016 • He warned that nearly 2 million German drivers and truckers faced...

28,252 Aufrufe • vor 29 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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The man who invented modern fantasy didn't publish his first novel until he was forty-five. By that age, J.R.R. Tolkien had already built a respectable life. He was an Oxford professor, an expert in ancient languages, with a wife and four children and a settled academic career. He was exactly the kind of man who might reasonably have decided that the shape of his life was already fixed. The work he would be remembered for, he had not yet even begun... The story, which Tolkien told himself, is that one summer he was grading examination papers, when he turned a page and found that a student had left it blank. Without quite knowing why, he wrote a single sentence on it: "In a hole in the ground there lived a hobbit." He did not know what a hobbit was. He had spent years inventing languages and mythologies as a private passion, and telling stories to his own children, never imagining any of it would reach the world. But that one line began to grow. It became a story, and then a book, and in 1937, at the age of forty-five, Tolkien published The Hobbit. It was a success, and his publisher asked for a sequel. Tolkien warned them it might take some time. It took 17 years... He wrote it in the margins of a demanding full-time job, revising endlessly, doubting it often. When The Lord of the Rings was finally published, in 1954 and 1955, he was in his early sixties. That book, begun as a middle-aged professor's private side project, went on to sell well over a hundred million copies, to invent modern fantasy as we know it, and to reshape the imagination of the entire world. Tolkien already had a full and respectable life behind him. And still, the thing he is remembered for, the thing that outlived him and reached hundreds of millions of people, was something he began at forty-five, at an age when it would have been the easiest thing in the world to tell himself he had already missed his chance. He didn't. It's never as late as it feels.

James Lucas

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The man who wrote the essay that started the entire AI boom just got DESTROYED by it. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America teamed up to liquidate their own client overnight. Leopold Aschenbrenner left OpenAI in 2024 and published an essay called "Situational Awareness" arguing that AGI was arriving before the decade was out, and that whoever owned the compute would own everything after it. Silicon Valley read it and started spending. Then he raised a fund named after the essay and bet on his own thesis with borrowed money. The numbers he put up were the best on Wall Street: He started with roughly $225 million in late 2024. Patrick and John Collison wrote checks. So did Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross, and Jane Street. Through June 30 of this year the fund was up 439% net of fees, according to the investor letter the Financial Times reviewed. The firm had a handful of employees, and he had no prior record managing anyone's money. It also ran leverage reported as high as 4x. For every dollar of his own capital he borrowed three or four more, then bought the physical guts of the AI buildout. He owned Micron, SanDisk, CoreWeave, Nebius, and SK Hynix. In July every one of those names fell somewhere between 27% and 54%. The Kospi, home to SK Hynix, lost about a third of its value. His collateral and his position were the same thing. The stocks fell, the loans against them came due, and selling to cover those loans pushed the stocks down again. The fund finished July down 67%. But the UGLY part happened in the six days before that... On July 24 he wrote to his investors and called the selloff some of the most attractive opportunities since early 2025. He invited them to commit fresh capital, with a deadline of August 1. That deadline is today. Six days after asking for more money, he was margin called by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America. He spent Wednesday trying to sell anything that would move. Millennium looked at the positions and passed. Jane Street looked and passed, and Jane Street was an investor in his own fund. Late that night he agreed to sell $3.5 billion of his Anthropic shares to a group led by Greenoaks and Sequoia Capital. The Collison brothers sat in his offices while he negotiated past midnight. Then Ken Griffin called... Before Thursday's open, Citadel bought the bulk of the public portfolio at more than 10% below market value. The same prime brokers squeezing him for cash, Goldman, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup, helped arrange the trade that bailed him out. He used Griffin's money to pay off his lenders. And Thursday morning he walked away from the Anthropic deal. So he sold every asset that had a public price, at a discount, and kept the one asset that gets valued by whatever the last funding round said it was worth. The fund survived with about $10 billion. The Anthropic stake inside it is carried at $5 billion, off a May round that valued the company at $965 billion. No open market has ever tested that number. Anthropic could list as soon as October, and Aschenbrenner is now running a fund whose value rests almost entirely on that one line. His letter to investors blamed short sellers. What happens next: The fund is still up roughly 80% for the year, which is why half of finance spent the weekend defending him. But the other half noticed that a manager with no prior fund record ran a 4x levered book into the most telegraphed drawdown of the cycle and had to hand the whole thing to Ken Griffin before sunrise. The public book got a real price on Thursday morning. The private mark is still waiting for October. What do you think?

Ricardo

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