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So... let me get this clear Buffett's indicator that was never wrong, says sell Meanwhile he increases $GOOGL investment by 83% Google became his 3rd-largest position. I just spent 6 hours researching WHY he did that And what I found out is kinda scary... The same gauge Buffett called...

52,101 次观看 • 11 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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Sold 32 coins. Bought 1,550. 48 times more, at a 15% discount, into the crash the market blamed on the sale. Strategy disclosed today that while everyone panicked over its $2.5 million Bitcoin sale, it was quietly buying the dip that panic created. 1,550 Bitcoin for $101 million, at $65,332 a coin, far below the $77,135 it sold for and below its own cost basis. The bears called the sale the first crack, a forced liquidation, the start of the death spiral. The answer was a buy 48 times the size of the sale that scared them. This is the machine we described: a state-contingent allocator. Above its funding line, it turns market access into Bitcoin. The sale was the exception. The buy is the rule. It also closed the question the sale opened. The cash reserve behind the preferred dividends had thinned to $900 million, about six months of cover. He rebuilt it to $1 billion in the same week. But watch how, because that is the real story. He funded none of it with coins. He funded it with $181 million of freshly issued stock, then spent it on Bitcoin and the reserve. The coins were never the funding source. The equity is. That is the flywheel working exactly as built, and the cost of it surfacing at the same time. Every turn now runs on issuing shares, and the premium that once made each share buy more Bitcoin than it diluted has compressed hard. He bought low. He sold his own stock low to do it. So the question quietly turns. It was never whether Saylor sells his Bitcoin. He just proved again that he buys far more than he sells. It is what each turn of the engine now costs in dilution, and how long the market keeps paying a premium worth that cost. He bought the dip. The dip was partly his own making. And he paid for it in equity, not coins.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

142,587 次观看 • 2 个月前

This is a statue of the only man in Troy who saw the trap. He tried to warn everyone, and this is what the gods did to him because of it... His name was Laocoön, a Trojan priest. When the Greek army vanished and left a giant wooden horse outside the city gates, all of Troy celebrated. Only Laocoön refused to believe it. He warned his people the horse was a trick and, to prove it was hollow, hurled his spear into its side. In Virgil's telling, he spoke a line that has outlasted almost everything else about Troy: "I fear the Greeks, even when they bring gifts." He was right. The horse was packed with soldiers, and Troy was hours from destruction. This sculpture shows what he got for it. Two enormous sea serpents rise out of the sea and coil around him and his young sons, dragging all three down together. The father's whole body is knotted in the struggle, every muscle straining, his face locked in a scream. The gods wanted Troy to fall, and Laocoön was in the way. The Trojans watched him die in agony and drew exactly the wrong conclusion: they decided the gods were punishing him for attacking a holy gift. So they pulled the horse inside their own walls, and that night, Troy burned... The statue is called Laocoön and His Sons. It is the work of three Greek sculptors from the island of Rhodes, Agesander, Athenodoros, and Polydorus, and dates to the Hellenistic period, making it well over two thousand years old. Buried for more than a thousand years, it was dug out of a Roman vineyard in 1506, and Michelangelo rushed across Rome to see it the day it was found. It has been called the single greatest depiction of human suffering in the history of art, but it endures because of what it is really about: the man who sees the truth, says it out loud, and is destroyed for being right while the crowd watches... It is one of the oldest patterns there is, and it has never stopped repeating. There is nothing new under the sun.

James Lucas

498,418 次观看 • 1 个月前

Last Thursday I was having dinner with a friend at a regular shawarma spot near the subway. A guy he knew was sitting with us. Around 21, maybe 22. Hoodie, AirPods, beat-up backpack When the check came he grabbed it without a word. No discussion. Just tapped his phone and paid for all 3 of us My friend was not even surprised. Apparently this was not the first time I asked: what do you do? He said: "I copy wallets on Polymarket" I thought it was a joke. Or some trading guru with a $500 course But he explained it simpler than I expected "On Polymarket there are wallets that are consistently in profit. Not on 1 bet but on dozens in a row. I do not try to guess who wins the election or what the weather will be in Dallas. I just look at what a wallet with a 70+ win rate is doing and repeat it" He did not build models. Did not write scripts. Did not analyze news He opened Telegram and showed me a channel. Simple messages: wallet X entered position Y, price Z cents, market such and such Then he opened Polymarket and showed me his balance I am not going to name the exact number because he did not ask for that. But I will say this: it is enough for a guy in a rented apartment with 3 roommates to casually pay for dinner for 3 and not think twice I asked: "How did you figure out which wallet to follow?" He shrugged "That is the easiest part. Polymarket is blockchain. All trades are open. You go to the leaderboard, filter by win rate, look at history. If a wallet consistently enters positions at 3 to 8 cents and closes at a dollar that is not luck. That is an information edge" Then he added something that made me freeze "The funniest part is I do not even need to understand why he bets. I do not know where he gets his information. Maybe he is an insider. Maybe he has a model. Maybe he just reads news faster. I do not care. I see that he entered and I enter a minute later. The price usually has not moved yet" I came home and could not fall asleep Opened Polymarket. Went to the leaderboard. Started digging An hour later I found the wallet he was talking about → Starting balance was negative. Current balance is a 5-figure number. Win rate above 73%. Average entry 4 to 7 cents. Average win covers 10 to 15 losses I started monitoring it manually. Set alarms. Checked every 2 hours By day 3 I realized I cannot live like this I needed the same thing that guy had. A signal in Telegram that comes on its own the moment the wallet opens a position I found a bot that does exactly that → No delays. No manual monitoring. Wallet enters and you get a notification What you do with it is up to you. Copy it exactly, use it as a signal, or just observe 2 weeks have passed. I have not become that guy from the shawarma spot. Yet But I stopped guessing. And started copying Right now somewhere a smart wallet is opening a new position. The question is whether you find out about it in a second or in 24 hours when the price has already moved

Blaze

122,780 次观看 • 5 个月前

32 coins. $2.5 million. 0.0038% of the stack. That is the sale the market is now blaming for a $3 billion liquidation cascade and a Bitcoin price nearly halved from its peak. A $2.5 million sale cannot move a trillion-dollar asset. It is a rounding error. In the same week, Strategy raised $128.3 million selling its own stock, 50 times larger. It did not need to sell coins. It chose to. The crash has real drivers: a record 13-day run of ETF outflows, a rotation into AI, a Fed in no hurry to cut. But the accelerant the market keeps naming is 32 coins. The coins were never the point. The signal was. And the signal was deliberate. Michael Saylor told the Q1 call he would “probably sell some bitcoin to pay a dividend just to inoculate the market and send the message that we did it.” His logic was sound: prove the Bitcoin is usable capital, not a vault that can never be opened, and show he is not a prisoner of his own vow. His “never sell” always meant be a net accumulator. He is up more than 170,000 coins this year against the 32 he sold, and he scores himself on one number, Bitcoin per share. By that math, defending the dividend with a sliver was discipline, not distress. The market read it as the opposite. The dose became the catalyst now blamed for the crash. The inoculation became the infection. Because what changed was never Strategy’s solvency. It was its identity. The market has stopped pricing a permanent holder and started pricing what the filings always described: a state-contingent allocator now funding its own preferred dividends, at the margin, from the Bitcoin beneath them. And the buffer is thinning. The cash reserve behind those dividends has fallen from $2.25 billion to $900 million. Against a preferred bill near $1.7 billion a year, that is roughly 6 months of runway. Be precise. This is not a death spiral. Strategy still holds 843,706 Bitcoin, worth more than $50 billion even now, and has more funding levers than almost any company alive. A real rally makes this a footnote, and the sell-side calling the reaction overdone is not wrong on the fundamentals. But the regime has changed. The question is no longer Bitcoin’s price on any given day. It is the cadence of the dividend declarations and the path of that reserve. Bitcoin did not acquire a yield. The wrapper acquired liabilities. This week the market learned that difference costs far more than 32 coins.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

165,572 次观看 • 2 个月前