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$SOFI Wednesday scenarios. End-of-day price targets under both Fed paths: Optimistic: - Double beat + hold guidance flat + no Fed hike → ~$19 close Middle: - Double beat + hold guidance + Fed holds → $17.50 to $19 range - This is my base case Pessimistic: - Lower...

14,069 görüntüleme • 19 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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THE FED IS OUT OF EXITS The 10-Year Treasury yield just broke above 4.40% First time since June 2025. Remember the last time we crossed that line? April 2025. Trump's "90-day tariff pause." The emergency button got slammed for a reason. That same line is back. Right on schedule. And here's what nobody on cable news is telling you: Rate HIKES are now what the Fed is expected to do next. Not cuts. Hikes. In plain English: the Fed is about to make borrowing more expensive, not cheaper. What that means for you: ➮ 30-year mortgage rates are heading back to 7% ➮ Inflation just hit a 3-year high ➮ "Higher for longer" - the policy everyone thought was dead is officially back Seemingly overnight. Now here's the math nobody on TV wants to do out loud: The US government has to refinance trillions in debt this year at these higher rates. Every tick higher in rates costs the Treasury billions more in interest. Which puts the Fed in a corner with two exits. If they HIKE to crush inflation - the stock market, housing, and credit markets crack at the same time. If they HOLD or CUT to save the markets - inflation spirals again and the dollar bleeds out. There is no third door. This isn't a policy decision anymore. It's a math problem with no solution. The clock is ticking. Most people will keep believing "the Fed has it under control" until their mortgage payment, their grocery bill, and their portfolio tell them otherwise. Don't worry though - my system flags the exact moment the market shifts from caution to DANGER. I called every major top and bottom of the last decade. You'll be warned before it hits, like always. So make sure to TURN ON NOTIFS and follow

Reflection🪩

132,195 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Chamath: “What does the Fed actually do in 2025?” Chamath lays out the Fed’s four core responsibilities, and if they should continue doing them in 2025: – Lender of Last Resort ❌ – Monetary Policy ❌ – Banking Regulations ✅ – Clearinghouse ✅ “We have an extremely vibrant, and complicated, and interconnected $130T global economy.” “It's moving at the speed of light.” “The Fed gets together once a month, tries to divine what monetary policy, what the money supply should look like, based on data that is often incorrect.” “We see that in the BLS data, we see that in the GDP prints, we see it in all of the inputs.” “So I think the real question is, there are certain parts of what the Fed does that they can continue to do, and I think everybody would probably say it's an okay thing.” “Could they be a lender of last resort? Personally, in my opinion, no.” ❌ “I think that Treasury does a better job, and I think that Treasury has a better mechanism to get the American taxpayer a win than the Fed does.” “Do they actually create monetary policy and price stability? I would say that the capital markets and the free markets actually do a better job of that.” ❌ “They define much more what the spread is. I think SOFR is a much better rate mechanism than the Fed funds rate at this point.” “Do they do banking supervision and regulation? Yeah, they probably do a reasonably good job of that.” ✅ “Do they do a good job as a payment system and a clearinghouse? Again, probably something that's pretty uncontroversial that they could continue to do.” ✅ “The bigger picture is the two things that are the most dynamic, they are the worst at doing.” “And so I would actually question whether that responsibility should sit with a handful of humans looking at faulty month-old data.”

The All-In Podcast

102,767 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

🚨 WARNING: $SPX IS SETTING UP A 20% CRASH The S&P 500 has been dumping for weeks Most people still think this is just another healthy pullback They have NO idea what's coming Wave 6 has already marked the top. The final melt-up could be over Here's what changed Inflation is back. June CPI: 3.5%. Energy prices are ripping again The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% in July - but three FOMC members dissented, demanding a HIKE 9 of 18 Fed officials now pencil in at least one hike this year Markets price a roughly 55% chance of a 2026 hike. September is live New Chair Kevin Warsh built his reputation on one thing: killing inflation He doesn't need market's permission And there's more Only five stocks have been carrying the entire index: → Apple → Nvidia → Amazon → Microsoft → Meta The index holds 503 stocks but trades like it holds 54 A 10% drop in just the top 5 drags the whole index down ~2.6% Now the leaders are cracking Meta fell 8% in a day after earnings. Free cash flow: down 91%. AI capex: $130-145 BILLION this year We've seen this movie before 2018: Fed hiked into weakness → $SPX fell nearly 20% in one quarter 2022: Fed tightened into sticky inflation → -25% peak to trough If the Fed hikes in September: → The AI trade reprices → Index concentration breaks → Dip buyers get trapped → The correction turns into a crash My call: $SPX ends this cycle 20%+ lower - from ~7,800 toward 6,200 This isn't caution. This is the setup Reminder: I called the 2025 $BTC ATH and drop to $60k. The next call matters more Follow and turn notifications on. I'll post next major move BEFORE it becomes obvious

Aralez 🐕

250,139 görüntüleme • 9 gün önce

Alot of people ask me to come and speak at their school board meetings, while I can attend some of them, many are just to far on the weekdays So here's my speech for you to read or play my video for your board on guidance 5756, hope it helps you ----------------------------------- Thank you for giving me a chance to speak today, Just want to touch of the subject of guidance 5756 Our children are be relentlessly bombarded by gender indoctrination on a level never seen before. From the new sex ed curriculum pushed by the state to your library books If you didnt know it parents, Over the summer our state New Jersey Boe recently passed policy to remove the words male and female from schools Here are some misconceptions about 5756, it is not policy but always was guidance, you will not lose state funding if you abolish it, trans kids are still protected under LAD even if you abolish Many think 5756 is LGBTQ outline guidance, it is narrowly targeted towards trans students The guidance essentially boils down to the response a school should undertake if a student thinks they are trans: they would like to be addressed by a name other than their legal one/identify with a pronoun/gender not corresponding to their biological sex The guidance also advises: the school district may seek a variety of professionals, including counselors/school psychologists Will these counselors tell kids after sex reassignment surgery they are 5x more likely to have made a suicide attempt & 19x more likely to have died from suicide It would be a mistake in the 1st place for any board to take on this policy based purely on if something happened to the child or got forbid died, you the board would be sued. Are you truly willing to take that risk? Garden State Equality pushes for programs in schools and GSA groups (Gender Sexuality Alliances) to push the agenda further Hackensack is having pride events all year with gsa activities and woodstown is hosting a series of events as well Our kids are very impressionable and what to please us, mental health issues are being accelerated pushing this as well, kids are utterly confused, especially my own and Countless others I talk to around the state I would like to stress the engagement aspect of sexual influence on any child under the age of 18 the definition of influence over a child stated in Title 9, specifically 6-1 The performing on any indecent, immoral or unlawful act or deed, in the presence of a child that may debauch, or endanger or degrade the morals of the child Think about this child abuse law as the government and our Schools push this gender agenda We need to be teaching these kids, not indoctrinating our students with endless gender ideology What I'm asking is simple, bring up a vote to remove this guidance. If you truly care about the children, you'll stop keeping parents in the dark about what's happening to their kids Parents, it you want this guidance removed, I encourage you to email and speak out to your board. They don't know you have concerns unless you voice them Lastly Always remember this fact, You are not our kids parents, we are, it's best never forget that as you try to hide information from the parents with this guidance Thank you ------------------------------------ Speech and video is just under 3 minutes, so it'll work at any BOE Rally your fellow #NewJersey parents, and keep pushing back on issues that affect you

Wake Up NJ 🇺🇸 New Jersey

23,462 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce