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🚨 SOMEONE SHOW THIS TO NVIDIA BULLS 🚨 Left chart: Cisco in 2000 Right chart: Nvidia in 2026 Take a minute and actually look at them In 2000 Cisco was the most important company in the world The internet was going to change everything. Everyone knew it. Everyone bought...

18,375 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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BREAKING: Michael Burry just compared Nvidia to the company that lost 90% of its value in the dot-com crash and took 25 years to recover. "I stand by my analysis. I am not claiming Nvidia is Enron. It is clearly Cisco." Here's the most recent warning from the investor who called the 2008 crash: Michael Burry built his reputation on one trade. He saw the housing market collapse before anyone else and bet against it. "The Big Short" made him famous. Now he's looking at Nvidia. And he says it looks like Cisco in March 2000. That comparison is not a casual insult. Cisco was the most valuable company in the world at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Its valuation crossed $500 billion. Then the bubble burst. The stock fell roughly 90% from its 2000 peak. Its market cap collapsed to about $60 billion by 2002. And it took roughly 25 years for the stock to climb back to where it started. An entire generation of investors waited a quarter century just to break even. That is the company Burry is comparing Nvidia to. Now here is the number that triggered the warning. In Nvidia's fiscal 2026 results, the company disclosed its purchase obligations. These are the commitments Nvidia makes to its suppliers to lock in future manufacturing capacity. A year ago, that figure sat at $16.1 billion. This year it jumped to $95.2 billion. Total supply obligations now sit at roughly $117 billion. Nvidia is committing $117 billion to build capacity for demand that has not arrived yet. Burry's argument is simple. A company does not lock in $117 billion in supplier commitments unless it is betting the demand keeps climbing. If that demand slows even slightly, Nvidia is holding billions in obligations it cannot unwind. And that is exactly what happened to Cisco. Cisco overcommitted to supplier capacity expecting roughly 50% annual growth. Then tech spending slowed. The inventory piled up. The stock cratered. Burry is not calling Nvidia a fraud. He is not saying it is the next Enron. He is saying it could be the market's Cisco. The single stock that becomes the symbol of an AI spending unwind that drags everything down with it. And the dot-com comparison carries weight because of what happened to the broader market. When that bubble burst, the Nasdaq 100 fell 77%. The S&P 500 dropped 49%. It was not just one stock. It was the whole market. Now here is the other side of the argument. Nvidia's supporters say the Cisco comparison is too simple. Because Cisco was riding hype. Nvidia is riding actual revenue. Nvidia reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $215.9 billion, up 65% year over year. Data center revenue alone hit roughly $193.7 billion, up 68%. Record quarterly data center revenue of $62.3 billion in the fourth quarter, up 75%. These are not promises. These are realized sales, booked and collected. The bulls argue that pricing power and margins this strong do not exist inside a pure bubble. In their view, Burry is warning about a future slowdown that has not shown up in a single quarterly report. So the debate splits into two clean halves. The bears say the $117 billion in commitments makes Nvidia dangerously sensitive to any demand slowdown. The bulls say the revenue is real, the growth is accelerating, and the buildout is justified by the orders already on the books. Both sides are looking at the same company. Both sides are looking at the same numbers. They just disagree on what those numbers mean. And there is a second force pulling at this market that has nothing to do with Nvidia's earnings. A wave of mega-IPOs is reportedly coming. SpaceX. OpenAI. Anthropic. Some estimates suggest the market may need to absorb close to $200 billion in fresh equity supply. That creates a quieter question underneath the Burry debate. Even if AI demand stays strong, capital is finite. When the next wave of private giants goes public, money has to come from somewhere. And the easiest place to pull it from is the stock that already tripled. The real test is not whether Burry is right or wrong today. It is whether demand growth, margins, and contract utilization keep matching the $117 billion that Nvidia and its entire ecosystem are committing right now. If the demand keeps climbing, the commitments look like foresight. If it stalls, they look like Cisco. The man who saw the last crash before anyone else just put a name on the risk. A company that was once worth over $500 billion, then lost 90%, then made its investors wait 25 years to get back to even. The numbers say Nvidia is booking record revenue. The same numbers say Nvidia is committing $117 billion to a future nobody can see. One of those facts ages well. The other one is the entire question.

Insider Trackers

285,273 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

THIS BUBBLE IS WORSE THAN 2000 If you have money in the stock market, read this carefully. The market is climbing while liquidity gets pulled out underneath it. Now look at valuations. Shiller CAPE: 42.05. The only time it was higher was 1999, right before the dot-com crash. Buffett Indicator: 229.9%. In 2000, it was 146%. That means today’s market is 1.6x higher than the dot-com peak by that metric. Buffett is sitting on $325B in cash and selling stocks. He is not guessing. He is reading the same math. Now concentration. Top 10 stocks control 41% of the S&P 500. They generate only 32% of profits. In 2000, top concentration was 23%. This is not a diversified index anymore. It is a crowded bet on a handful of companies, and most of them are tied to the same AI story. Now add leverage. Margin debt hit $1.28T. That is 4.1% of GDP. In 2000, it was 2.7%. Investors are borrowing more to buy stocks than they did at the dot-com peak. And the reversal may have already started. Margin debt peaked in January 2026 and dropped 4.5% in two months. The S&P dropped 5.9% in the same window. Last time margin debt rolled before the market? 2000. 2007. Every time, the market followed. Now look at AI. In 2000, telecom companies spent billions building fiber for “the internet future.” Capex hit 4.5% of GDP. Today, hyperscalers are spending on data centers for “the AI future.” Tech capex is 4.4% of GDP. Almost the same number. Back then, Lucent and Nortel helped finance customers who bought their equipment. Today, Nvidia invests in companies that buy Nvidia chips. Same loop. Different label. In 2000, the bubble was internet infrastructure. In 2026, it is AI infrastructure. The companies are bigger now. The spending is bigger. The index concentration is worse. The leverage is higher. And the market is priced like the returns are already guaranteed. That is the danger. If one major earnings report shows AI spending is not paying off, the repricing starts. And with 41% of the index sitting in the same trade, there is nowhere clean to hide. That’s why I’m watching this situation very closely right now. When the next move becomes clear, I’ll post it here first. Follow and turn notifications on.

Nonzee

83,631 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

🚨 STOP AND LOOK AT THIS CHART 🚨 White candles - the dot-com semiconductor bubble (2000) Colored candles - the AI semiconductor bubble (2026) I genuinely don't know how to make this clearer The reason this keeps happening isn't random - it's a new technology cycle arrives In 2000, every company on the planet had one goal - get online as fast as possible To do that, they needed infrastructure. Routers, servers, fiber optic cables And the companies that made all of it - Cisco and Intel - couldn't produce fast enough Demand felt infinite. Valuations went vertical. Everyone assumed this growth would last forever But at some point, the internet was built. The cables were laid. The servers were installed New orders stopped coming in. The companies sitting on mountains of unsold inventory started collapsing And the index that tracked all of them - fell over 80% In 2025, the same story - different technology Every company on the planet had one goal - integrate AI as fast as possible To do that, they needed chips. Nvidia couldn't produce fast enough Demand felt infinite. Valuations went vertical. Everyone assumed this growth would last forever And now - it's starting The first major drop just happened. The orders are slowing. The data centers are built This is how the dot-com version began too You already know how it ended last time Don't fall for it again If you don't have time to keep up with everything - follow me I'll keep you updated on the most important events

NoName

21,590 просмотров • 14 дней назад