🚨 SOMETHING DOESN’T ADD UP WITH THIS. Recession odds just collapsed to an all-time low of 20%. And somehow, everyone is reading that as BULLISH. Maybe. But history says the market usually breaks BEFORE recession becomes obvious. 2000: S&P 500 topped first. Then came the recession. The market eventually... fell more than 50%. 2008: Same story. Stocks were still near the highs while the economy was already weakening underneath. Then the S&P 500 lost more than half its value. 2020 was faster. Recession hit, panic exploded, and the market dropped more than 30% almost instantly. That’s the part people forget. The market doesn’t wait for the headline. It prices the problem BEFORE everyone agrees the problem exists. Now recession odds are supposedly near record lows. Meanwhile the S&P 500 is sitting near ATHs again. Maybe this time really is different. Or maybe 2026–2028 is the next chapter on this chart. I know which setup I’m watching. Remember: I publicly called Bitcoin’s $17K bottom in 2022 and $126K top in 2025. Then I called the $58K local bottom in 2026. My next call will be posted here first. Follow and turn on notifications.show more

ATHs plus extreme confidence always make me cautious 👀

The way you connect market tops to recession timing makes me rethink how I look at stocks. I’ve picked up a lot from your analysis, and @thectspot gives me another solid angle. You two are the analysts I trust most.

Record-low recession odds may look bullish, but history shows markets can peak before economic weakness becomes obvious. You and @mlkbfrey are the two accounts I enjoy following the most

Stay alert, not emotional.

It is a myth come on

I’m serious. You and @orlandorae are the standard.

funny how "lowest recession odds ever" and "everyone's fully positioned" always show up on the chart at the same candle

History reminds us the market tops before the recession ever shows up.

Down 👎

Fair point, the market usually sniffs it out way before the headlines do. You and @SophiaBlackkod are the ones I check when everyone's too comfortable, always the sharpest perspective.

True

En que quedamos....ponemos los activos a dormir porque antes de acabar el 2026 se viene un tortazo de aupa y comprarmos luego a la baja, o al final esto queda en nada y el SP500 va a seguir subiendo en el 2027? Porque yo no me aclaro. Y tengo un fondo de pensiones en el SP500?

So real

#1930-1939

One big market sell and we slide down fast

Recession odds at an all time low of 20% is the ultimate contrarian warning sign. The market always tops before the economy officially rolls over. @RitadeCSB is brilliant at reading these macro sentiment extremes, her ability to see the warning signs before the crowd is what makes her analysis so valuable.