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Soros Fund Management CIO Dawn Fitzpatrick on why there is a massive culling coming for managers in private equity and credit From her conversation at Bloomberg Invest "Investors are overallocated to private assets. Their private equity is not cash flowing, and now they are going to have a similar... show more

Boring_Business

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423,315 次观看 • 5 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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On private credit, "I think it's going to be a painful 18-24 months." Soros' Dawn Fitzpatrick tells Bloomberg TV's Lisa Abramowicz #BloombergInvest ⏯️

On private credit, "I think it's going to be a painful 18-24 months." Soros' Dawn Fitzpatrick tells Bloomberg TV's Lisa Abramowicz #BloombergInvest ⏯️

Bloomberg Live

34,385 次观看 • 6 个月前

Private credit just hit the brakes, and the numbers are not subtle. New US direct lending issuance fell from about $74.6 billion in the first quarter to about $44.8 billion in the three months ending May, according to PitchBook. That is a massive slowdown in a single quarter. Private equity-backed borrowing dropped to about $28.5 billion. Lending tied to leveraged buyouts fell to about $15.2 billion. This is the private credit engine losing speed at the exact moment it needs confidence. And the reasons are not a mystery. Fundraising is still well below its peak. Redemption requests are elevated and still climbing. Investors are scrutinizing loan quality. And borrowers are stuck in a flat, gone-bad economy. For years private credit took market share because it was fast and certain. It could finance deals when the banks and the syndicated markets could not, because everyone assumed the economy would be good forever. That assumption is breaking. Now these funds are preserving liquidity and stretching to get deals done. So they have far less appetite to finance private equity at aggressive valuations. And that is where private equity gets pulled in. It ran on the leverage that private credit provided, and that engine is reversing. Here is the standoff. Private equity firms will not sell assets at lower prices, because that means admitting yesterday's marks were too high. Buyers will not pay peak multiples in a higher-rate, slower-growth world. Lenders will not underwrite the old assumptions. Investors do not want more money locked up. So the whole machine slows, grinds to a halt, and starts to reverse. One guy called it constipation.

Private credit just hit the brakes, and the numbers are not subtle. New US direct lending issuance fell from about $74.6 billion in the first quarter to about $44.8 billion in the three months ending May, according to PitchBook. That is a massive slowdown in a single quarter. Private equity-backed borrowing dropped to about $28.5 billion. Lending tied to leveraged buyouts fell to about $15.2 billion. This is the private credit engine losing speed at the exact moment it needs confidence. And the reasons are not a mystery. Fundraising is still well below its peak. Redemption requests are elevated and still climbing. Investors are scrutinizing loan quality. And borrowers are stuck in a flat, gone-bad economy. For years private credit took market share because it was fast and certain. It could finance deals when the banks and the syndicated markets could not, because everyone assumed the economy would be good forever. That assumption is breaking. Now these funds are preserving liquidity and stretching to get deals done. So they have far less appetite to finance private equity at aggressive valuations. And that is where private equity gets pulled in. It ran on the leverage that private credit provided, and that engine is reversing. Here is the standoff. Private equity firms will not sell assets at lower prices, because that means admitting yesterday's marks were too high. Buyers will not pay peak multiples in a higher-rate, slower-growth world. Lenders will not underwrite the old assumptions. Investors do not want more money locked up. So the whole machine slows, grinds to a halt, and starts to reverse. One guy called it constipation.

Jeffrey P. Snider

18,048 次观看 • 2 个月前

Ash Sarkar on #PoliticsLive "The role of private equity in our social care system" Ash Sarkar 👏 "We've got a hugely expensive social care system. Adult and children social care is a massive part of local authority budget" "It's part of the reason why so many local councils are in debt" "And private equity is just siphoning money out of the system" "In just three years, in three regions of England, private equity sucked out £250 million in profit" "Something that Andy Burnham and whoever his pick of chancellor might be, is to say, we're not going to have such a huge role for private equity in the social care system" "We're going to have strong limits on how much profit can be extracted" "We're not going to have leveraged buyouts where private equity uses a tiny bit of their own money and then loads the company with debt"

Ash Sarkar on #PoliticsLive "The role of private equity in our social care system" Ash Sarkar 👏 "We've got a hugely expensive social care system. Adult and children social care is a massive part of local authority budget" "It's part of the reason why so many local councils are in debt" "And private equity is just siphoning money out of the system" "In just three years, in three regions of England, private equity sucked out £250 million in profit" "Something that Andy Burnham and whoever his pick of chancellor might be, is to say, we're not going to have such a huge role for private equity in the social care system" "We're going to have strong limits on how much profit can be extracted" "We're not going to have leveraged buyouts where private equity uses a tiny bit of their own money and then loads the company with debt"

Farrukh

79,693 次观看 • 2 个月前

So insurance companies & pension funds have invested in private equity & credit companies through the Cayman Islands, and they're currently 35x levered on their obligations... Did I hear that correctly? When private credit blows up this is going to be worse than 2008.

So insurance companies & pension funds have invested in private equity & credit companies through the Cayman Islands, and they're currently 35x levered on their obligations... Did I hear that correctly? When private credit blows up this is going to be worse than 2008.

Financelot

397,200 次观看 • 6 个月前

Private Equity for All! For decades, private equity was only accessible to institutions and the ultra-wealthy. Today, Hamilton Lane launches access to their private infrastructure fund on Republic, open to all investors with a low minimum of $500. Here's how 👇

Private Equity for All! For decades, private equity was only accessible to institutions and the ultra-wealthy. Today, Hamilton Lane launches access to their private infrastructure fund on Republic, open to all investors with a low minimum of $500. Here's how 👇

Republic

17,835 次观看 • 1 年前

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on Larry Fink saying people's pensions will fund AI companies: "it's already happened" "The money's already been used. Your pension funds have already funded this" "Larry Fink is basically telling you what's already happened" "That's what private credit is. Private credit is opaque" "[But] private credit is shut down right now. BlackRock's private credit fund today, [and another] one... they're gating withdrawals" "that's why I'm so negative on the US Economy, because once credit turns, everything turns eventually, [and] eventually everything goes the wrong way" "That comes at the end of an economic boom. So we're already rolling over" "Equity people are always late to the party to figure this out. The fixed-income people are already pulling in their horns" "[But] the insurance companies have a lot of this dreck on their balance sheets. The pension funds own it through private credit funds and private equity" Shannon Joy Edward Dowd

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on Larry Fink saying people's pensions will fund AI companies: "it's already happened" "The money's already been used. Your pension funds have already funded this" "Larry Fink is basically telling you what's already happened" "That's what private credit is. Private credit is opaque" "[But] private credit is shut down right now. BlackRock's private credit fund today, [and another] one... they're gating withdrawals" "that's why I'm so negative on the US Economy, because once credit turns, everything turns eventually, [and] eventually everything goes the wrong way" "That comes at the end of an economic boom. So we're already rolling over" "Equity people are always late to the party to figure this out. The fixed-income people are already pulling in their horns" "[But] the insurance companies have a lot of this dreck on their balance sheets. The pension funds own it through private credit funds and private equity" Shannon Joy Edward Dowd

Sense Receptor

67,948 次观看 • 2 个月前

Why is a George Soros funded private equity firm able to compete with you, your kids, and your grandkids, to buy a home? As Florida Governor, I will ban all private equity firms from buying up our homes.

Why is a George Soros funded private equity firm able to compete with you, your kids, and your grandkids, to buy a home? As Florida Governor, I will ban all private equity firms from buying up our homes.

James Fishback

14,388 次观看 • 2 个月前

A couple of Citi analysts framed the whole issue perfectly. What if the retail investors fleeing these funds are selling at the very top, and the BDC holder everyone called dumb money is actually the smartest in the room? Their warning was blunt. The calm is deceptive. The next wave of stress will not be gradual. It will be sudden. Non-linear. That is the point. The surface looks fine. Decent NAVs. Confident managers. Underneath, it is a mess. And the mess is spreading. Now the big one. Switzerland's Partners Group. And this is private equity, not private credit. That is the escalation. The contagion is jumping lanes. And it is not just a US problem. It is global. Partners Group just capped withdrawals at its 8.6 billion dollar private equity fund. Redemption requests hit nearly 10% in a single quarter. The cap is 5%. Same move the credit funds are already making. These evergreen funds were sold as flexible private equity. Own private companies, skip the ten-year lockup, redeem when you want. Except you cannot. The assets are not liquid. So when requests are 10% and the limit is 5%, the message is simple. Everyone wants out at once, and the door is too small. This is not Partners Group collapsing. It is the liquidity illusion jumping from credit to equity. And that changes everything. This was never a few investors misreading Blue Owl. It is a full reassessment of private markets. Illiquid assets. Delayed marks. High rates. Dead deals. Locked gates. Investors are looking at all of it and saying the same thing. I want out.

A couple of Citi analysts framed the whole issue perfectly. What if the retail investors fleeing these funds are selling at the very top, and the BDC holder everyone called dumb money is actually the smartest in the room? Their warning was blunt. The calm is deceptive. The next wave of stress will not be gradual. It will be sudden. Non-linear. That is the point. The surface looks fine. Decent NAVs. Confident managers. Underneath, it is a mess. And the mess is spreading. Now the big one. Switzerland's Partners Group. And this is private equity, not private credit. That is the escalation. The contagion is jumping lanes. And it is not just a US problem. It is global. Partners Group just capped withdrawals at its 8.6 billion dollar private equity fund. Redemption requests hit nearly 10% in a single quarter. The cap is 5%. Same move the credit funds are already making. These evergreen funds were sold as flexible private equity. Own private companies, skip the ten-year lockup, redeem when you want. Except you cannot. The assets are not liquid. So when requests are 10% and the limit is 5%, the message is simple. Everyone wants out at once, and the door is too small. This is not Partners Group collapsing. It is the liquidity illusion jumping from credit to equity. And that changes everything. This was never a few investors misreading Blue Owl. It is a full reassessment of private markets. Illiquid assets. Delayed marks. High rates. Dead deals. Locked gates. Investors are looking at all of it and saying the same thing. I want out.

Jeffrey P. Snider

22,209 次观看 • 2 个月前

Is Private Credit in a bubble? Is it about to blow up? Blue Owl reportedly received ~$5.4B of investor withdrawal requests from major private credit vehicles — including attempts to pull more than 40% from one fund. The broader private credit industry has grown from roughly ~$150B in 2010 to ~$2T today, effectively becoming a parallel lending system alongside banks. Now some BDCs & evergreen private credit funds are hitting redemption limits. What most people are missing under the headlines: Many BDCs (Business Development Companies) & evergreen private credit funds were never designed to provide unlimited liquidity. These vehicles lend to highly illiquid private companies — often PE-backed businesses — while only offering limited periodic withdrawals to investors. That’s why many structures have built-in quarterly redemption caps.

Is Private Credit in a bubble? Is it about to blow up? Blue Owl reportedly received ~$5.4B of investor withdrawal requests from major private credit vehicles — including attempts to pull more than 40% from one fund. The broader private credit industry has grown from roughly ~$150B in 2010 to ~$2T today, effectively becoming a parallel lending system alongside banks. Now some BDCs & evergreen private credit funds are hitting redemption limits. What most people are missing under the headlines: Many BDCs (Business Development Companies) & evergreen private credit funds were never designed to provide unlimited liquidity. These vehicles lend to highly illiquid private companies — often PE-backed businesses — while only offering limited periodic withdrawals to investors. That’s why many structures have built-in quarterly redemption caps.

Molly O’Shea

16,994 次观看 • 3 个月前

My 1st non-Southwest Airlines domestic flight in almost 7 years thanks to the Private Equity monsters that are destroying the brand. I’m so sick of Private Equity destroying everything: but we get to decide if we take our business away! Four other people in line with me were on their first non-Southwest flight in years & one had just canceled her Southwest credit card and opened an United Airlines card. Activist investment group, Elliott management has infiltrated @Southwest Airlines and the greed that they are exhibiting is going to cost Southwest everything! We have the power to fight back against private equity when we can and we should!

Tiffany Cianci

15,462 次观看 • 1 年前

You deserve the same shot as everybody else to have a chance to buy a home, and a George Soros private equity firm should never be able to take that from you. As Florida Governor, I will ban private equity firms from buying homes to protect homeownership for this generation.

You deserve the same shot as everybody else to have a chance to buy a home, and a George Soros private equity firm should never be able to take that from you. As Florida Governor, I will ban private equity firms from buying homes to protect homeownership for this generation.

James Fishback

16,418 次观看 • 1 个月前

If you are going to read one thing today, make it this one "What the fuck is going on private credit?" Private credit is getting sassy People are lining up to get their money back Big changes came out around lev-fin after the GFC The new guidelines meant banks could not lend to LBO above 6.0x Private credit stepped in to fill the gap Pre-GFC, deals were small, and docs were tight Private credit has outgrown levered loans Why? Fees Private credits make ~6-7x fees vs levered loans The race is off, if you don't own a private credit business, you own it How do you deploy so much capital? Focus on large deals Which sectors? Software, business service = AI exposed sectors Those billions deals look like levered loans, much worse docs Many new deals were done lending against revenue, not against cash flow. Private credit guys were so confident because multiples kept expanding Then ChatGPT shows up AI Exposed companies are down 50% And to make things worse, the covid LBOs are maturing now Private credit is saying LTM figures are fine, but public credit recoveries are down, especially in tech Sponsors have misaligned interests, if they think the company will be disrupted, they pay themselves dividends People now want to get out

If you are going to read one thing today, make it this one "What the fuck is going on private credit?" Private credit is getting sassy People are lining up to get their money back Big changes came out around lev-fin after the GFC The new guidelines meant banks could not lend to LBO above 6.0x Private credit stepped in to fill the gap Pre-GFC, deals were small, and docs were tight Private credit has outgrown levered loans Why? Fees Private credits make ~6-7x fees vs levered loans The race is off, if you don't own a private credit business, you own it How do you deploy so much capital? Focus on large deals Which sectors? Software, business service = AI exposed sectors Those billions deals look like levered loans, much worse docs Many new deals were done lending against revenue, not against cash flow. Private credit guys were so confident because multiples kept expanding Then ChatGPT shows up AI Exposed companies are down 50% And to make things worse, the covid LBOs are maturing now Private credit is saying LTM figures are fine, but public credit recoveries are down, especially in tech Sponsors have misaligned interests, if they think the company will be disrupted, they pay themselves dividends People now want to get out

Restructuring__

28,238 次观看 • 3 个月前

🚨🚨PRIVATE EQUITY COCKROACH COLLAPSE 🪳 🪳 Private Equity domino's are falling. We are witnessing the everything bubble. Everywhere you look there is Financial carnage. The problem is the counterparty risk. It's all connected it can cause a mass default event. Private Equity firms like BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo and many small firms are experiencing a bank run. They are stopping investors from pulling their money out with a gating clause. "A gating clause is a contractual provision in investment funds, particularly hedge funds, that allows managers to temporarily restrict or suspend investor withdrawals during periods of high redemption requests." HUGE FIRES EVERYWHERE 🔥 🔥

🚨🚨PRIVATE EQUITY COCKROACH COLLAPSE 🪳 🪳 Private Equity domino's are falling. We are witnessing the everything bubble. Everywhere you look there is Financial carnage. The problem is the counterparty risk. It's all connected it can cause a mass default event. Private Equity firms like BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo and many small firms are experiencing a bank run. They are stopping investors from pulling their money out with a gating clause. "A gating clause is a contractual provision in investment funds, particularly hedge funds, that allows managers to temporarily restrict or suspend investor withdrawals during periods of high redemption requests." HUGE FIRES EVERYWHERE 🔥 🔥

Stephanie 🇬🇧🇺🇸🦍

29,497 次观看 • 5 个月前

Steve Eisman on the issues in Software lending in Private Credit: “When it’s time to get them refinanced, who’s going to want to lend to them when the equity is less than half?” “The equity value has been obliterated.”

Steve Eisman on the issues in Software lending in Private Credit: “When it’s time to get them refinanced, who’s going to want to lend to them when the equity is less than half?” “The equity value has been obliterated.”

Wall Street Rollup

91,633 次观看 • 4 个月前

"Constipated." That is the word now being used for the private credit market. And it is exactly what this looks like. The private credit story is changing. For months it was framed as a liquidity problem. Investors trying to pull their money out. That is still a huge problem. BlackRock just had a couple of funds suffering big runs. But there is a bigger one. It is no longer just the investors who want out. It is the investors outside who no longer want in. And that is the much bigger story. Because the private credit boom was built on flows. Constant inflows from wealth managers, pensions, insurance companies, and the general public. That is how big it got. The machine has to keep moving. Money comes in. Loans get made. Funds grow. Redemptions get handled. Managers collect their fees. Everyone pretends it is calm because the marks are smooth and the exits are limited. Now the machine is reversing. Reuters reported US direct lending issuance in the three months ending May was down roughly 40% from the first quarter. Issuance to private-equity-backed borrowers dropped nearly 37%. Volume tied to leveraged buyouts fell about 34%. So this is no longer just a redemption story. The exits are clogged. New money is hesitant. Sellers will not cut prices, and buyers will not pay yesterday's valuations. Credit funds are handling redemptions. Leveraged loans are showing strain. And publicly traded BDCs are not rebounding, even as the broader market soars. So the question is no longer whether investors are still withdrawing. They are, and it is accelerating. It is not about the people inside who want out. It is about the people outside who no longer want in. That is the bigger problem. It pushes us deeper into stage two, and the odds of stage three go up from here.

"Constipated." That is the word now being used for the private credit market. And it is exactly what this looks like. The private credit story is changing. For months it was framed as a liquidity problem. Investors trying to pull their money out. That is still a huge problem. BlackRock just had a couple of funds suffering big runs. But there is a bigger one. It is no longer just the investors who want out. It is the investors outside who no longer want in. And that is the much bigger story. Because the private credit boom was built on flows. Constant inflows from wealth managers, pensions, insurance companies, and the general public. That is how big it got. The machine has to keep moving. Money comes in. Loans get made. Funds grow. Redemptions get handled. Managers collect their fees. Everyone pretends it is calm because the marks are smooth and the exits are limited. Now the machine is reversing. Reuters reported US direct lending issuance in the three months ending May was down roughly 40% from the first quarter. Issuance to private-equity-backed borrowers dropped nearly 37%. Volume tied to leveraged buyouts fell about 34%. So this is no longer just a redemption story. The exits are clogged. New money is hesitant. Sellers will not cut prices, and buyers will not pay yesterday's valuations. Credit funds are handling redemptions. Leveraged loans are showing strain. And publicly traded BDCs are not rebounding, even as the broader market soars. So the question is no longer whether investors are still withdrawing. They are, and it is accelerating. It is not about the people inside who want out. It is about the people outside who no longer want in. That is the bigger problem. It pushes us deeper into stage two, and the odds of stage three go up from here.

Jeffrey P. Snider

24,551 次观看 • 2 个月前

Private equity is responsible for this. That’s why I’m calling on Democrats and Republicans to work together to reform the role of private equity in our health care system – and ensure this can never happen again.

Private equity is responsible for this. That’s why I’m calling on Democrats and Republicans to work together to reform the role of private equity in our health care system – and ensure this can never happen again.

Governor Josh Shapiro

75,749 次观看 • 1 年前

The U.S. military was charged $4,361 for a half inch metal pin that costs $46. Why? Defense contractors—with ties to private equity—are raking in excess profits. Instead of cracking down, Trump's DoD is inviting private equity to be MORE involved in our national defense.

The U.S. military was charged $4,361 for a half inch metal pin that costs $46. Why? Defense contractors—with ties to private equity—are raking in excess profits. Instead of cracking down, Trump's DoD is inviting private equity to be MORE involved in our national defense.

Elizabeth Warren

393,029 次观看 • 2 个月前

Are you saving for retirement with a 401(K)? Donald Trump is ready to help private equity billionaires make money off of you, and I have some serious questions. Most importantly: will private equity even make you money?

Are you saving for retirement with a 401(K)? Donald Trump is ready to help private equity billionaires make money off of you, and I have some serious questions. Most importantly: will private equity even make you money?

Elizabeth Warren

41,814 次观看 • 1 年前

Private Equity Firms have found a new target in America, Hospitals 460+ American hospitals are now owned by private equity firms Just in the last few years, they’ve already managed to load an estimated 50 hospitals up with debt, forcing their bankruptcies and closures One private equity firm bought a hospital in Pennsylvania, “ Just two years after buying Crozier Health, Prospect took out a $1.1 billion loan and then sent nearly half of it straight to their investors while Crozier continued to suffer. It's fundamentally extractive, even among private equity industry folks. It's a controversial way to generate a return on an investment because it adds absolutely no value to the company in question” Private equity firms often use leveraged buyouts, loading acquired hospitals with debt to finance purchases. This debt, combined with strategies like sale-leaseback deals (selling hospital real estate and leasing it back to the hospital at high rents), can strain hospital finances Here’s another example of that: Steward Health Care, previously owned by Cerberus Capital Management, sold its real estate to Medical Properties Trust (MPT), incurring $350–400 million in annual rent, contributing to its 2024 bankruptcy - The hospitals own the land - Private equity buys the land and sells it to their own company - They then leases the land back to the hospital at hundreds of millions of dollars per month - They take out massive loans and pay their private equity executives hundreds of millions of dollars each The hospital goes bankrupt and closes Last month, a woman arrived at a Pennsylvania hospital with her barely breathing baby, only to discover the hospital had closed. Why? The hospital’s owner diverted millions to private equity investors instead of investing in healthcare. Now, patients and workers are paying the price.

Private Equity Firms have found a new target in America, Hospitals 460+ American hospitals are now owned by private equity firms Just in the last few years, they’ve already managed to load an estimated 50 hospitals up with debt, forcing their bankruptcies and closures One private equity firm bought a hospital in Pennsylvania, “ Just two years after buying Crozier Health, Prospect took out a $1.1 billion loan and then sent nearly half of it straight to their investors while Crozier continued to suffer. It's fundamentally extractive, even among private equity industry folks. It's a controversial way to generate a return on an investment because it adds absolutely no value to the company in question” Private equity firms often use leveraged buyouts, loading acquired hospitals with debt to finance purchases. This debt, combined with strategies like sale-leaseback deals (selling hospital real estate and leasing it back to the hospital at high rents), can strain hospital finances Here’s another example of that: Steward Health Care, previously owned by Cerberus Capital Management, sold its real estate to Medical Properties Trust (MPT), incurring $350–400 million in annual rent, contributing to its 2024 bankruptcy - The hospitals own the land - Private equity buys the land and sells it to their own company - They then leases the land back to the hospital at hundreds of millions of dollars per month - They take out massive loans and pay their private equity executives hundreds of millions of dollars each The hospital goes bankrupt and closes Last month, a woman arrived at a Pennsylvania hospital with her barely breathing baby, only to discover the hospital had closed. Why? The hospital’s owner diverted millions to private equity investors instead of investing in healthcare. Now, patients and workers are paying the price.

Wall Street Apes

247,836 次观看 • 1 年前

This money is enough to set up a private equity that can revive some companies and get it functioning. When are we going to delve into this corporate rescue?

This money is enough to set up a private equity that can revive some companies and get it functioning. When are we going to delve into this corporate rescue?

Anambra 1st son

60,991 次观看 • 1 个月前