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SpaceX dropped yesterday on an unlock. Worth understanding the mechanic, because it repeats. 319 million shares came online, adding 17% to the float. As a rule of thumb, 20 to 25% of unlocked shares get sold almost immediately. Not because holders turn bearish. Because a SpaceX employee sitting on...

21,701 views • 3 days ago •via X (Twitter)

9 Comments

BITCOINBUB2U's profile picture
BITCOINBUB2U3 days ago

Bullshit These holders know what they are sitting on- explosive stock gains- they work and breed success at the highest achievable levels. Spcx success as an infant co is mind boggling. They don’t STACK orders They hold and sell very little waiting for the capitulations coming!

JoeRiverside's profile picture
JoeRiverside3 days ago

Big banks are ready for these unlocks and have big buyers ready. Thats how it’s done.

Ken McCann's profile picture
Ken McCann2 days ago

Fsd has made driving enjoyable i just sight see the whole drive

NFTPartners's profile picture
NFTPartners3 days ago

How many shares do you have Jo?

keshav's profile picture
keshav3 days ago

This is great insight! Thank you!!! Makes perfect sense

Word Smith's profile picture
Word Smith2 days ago

This is why I don't listen to financial advisers. They get paid on the churn not on the potential value of the underlying company. Due diligence - why did you buy the stock and has anything changed to effect the value. Best investment book - One Up on Wall Street. 2nd are the Charles Givens books Wealth without Risk series (out of print). Great foundational knowledge.

Lourie Brain🧠's profile picture
Lourie Brain🧠2 days ago

Así como SpaceX tiene unlock🔒 de acciones, yo los tengo con mi dinero, $135 sumo 500k $100 sumo 1M $80 vendo el auto y sumo🤣

Ross James's profile picture
Ross James2 days ago

Helpful.

AG3's profile picture
AG32 days ago

Why sell above $135? The last private round was at $105.

Related Videos

$SPCX IS ABOUT TO TURN BUYERS INTO EXIT LIQUIDITY! SpaceX is currently up around 28% from its $135 IPO price Most people keep buying have no idea what that pump just triggered Here's why everyone who bought SpaceX right now will only lose money: Right now 95% of the shares are locked, so it all trades on a thin sliver of float with $2T valuation Also, there's a clause buried in the lockup, an extra 10% of insider shares Unlocks early if the stock holds ~30% above the $135 IPO price into the first earnings which is $175.5 And here's the worst part: Insiders unlock -> they sell into the hype -> price drops -> the next unlock hits an even weaker bid. And the calendar only gets heavier from there: After Q2 earnings the first 20% unlocks, then 7% drips out every couple of weeks Q3 earnings frees another 28%, and by mid-December the full lockup is gone Then in June 2027 Musk's 6.4 billion shares come online A wall of supply, on a fixed schedule, already counting down We've seen something similar before: Facebook IPO'd at $38 in 2012, the lockups expired, and months later it traded near $18 Half the value gone, not because the company failed, but because supply showed up and buyers ran out Now ask yourself one thing: Who's on the other side of your buy up here? It's people who got in at $40, $60, $90, sitting on years of gains and waiting for exactly this window They don't need price higher, they just need someone to sell into and right now that someone is you I've been here for 9+ years and seen dozens of such IPOs, not so big ofc but each used same system So I am here to warn you and tell you how you can really earn on this I'll post a full breakdown in a few days, so make sure to turn on notifs and follow me

𝗖𝗛𝗔𝗜𝗡 𝗠𝗜𝗡𝗗 ⛓🧠

177,103 views • 2 months ago

🚨 SPACEX IS ABOUT TO FOOL EVERYONE AGAIN SpaceX fell from $225 to $147. Now it is sitting back near the $135 IPO price. Most people think that means the worst is over. They are reading a price. They are not reading the supply calendar. Tomorrow, September 9: up to 319 million shares become eligible to sell. That block is worth ~$49 billion at current prices. September 10: another 59 million affiliate shares. Then the drip keeps going: Sep 24 → Oct 9 → Oct 24 → Dec 8 Musk’s own 6.4 billion shares stay locked until June 2027. So this is not “the founder is dumping.” This is employees and early paper getting permission to exit into a stock that just tagged IPO price again. That is why reclaiming $135 is not a bottom signal. It is the price where new supply meets leftover IPO buyers. The cycle is still: Euphoria → Denial → Final shakeout → Accumulation → Vertical We are in the phase where the stock can look “fine” for a week and then go dead. $120–$140 bounces into unlock weeks are the bull traps. My zone for the ugly handoff is still $77–$85. Why that zone matters more than the robotaxi headlines: Tesla is mentioned 87 times in the SpaceX S-1. Tesla already holds ~19 million SpaceX shares from the xAI conversion. SpaceX absorbed xAI in February. About 60% of SpaceX capex last year went there. Shotwell already said combining with Tesla would make Elon’s life easier. Ives has the merger odds around 80% for 2027. The public is trading a rocket ticker. The S-1 is describing one stack: SpaceX + xAI + Starlink + Tesla + power + robotics. Musk ran a version of this with SolarCity. The ugly part got sold. The headline got bought later. Watch who is on the other side of tomorrow’s float. Retail added exposure into this unlock because the last one did not crash. That is usually when the next tranche hurts more, not less. Save this post. Check it on Sep 9, Sep 10, Sep 24, and Dec 8. If SpaceX is near $80 and nobody is tweeting it, that is the date that matters. Bottoms do not send invitations.

LeLe 🎁 Gifts

21,365 views • 5 days ago

The largest IPO in history is also shaping up to be the largest exit liquidity operation in history SpaceX went public at more than 90x revenue, and the insiders who bought in at a fraction of today's price are about to start selling their shares to you. Let me walk you through why this IPO is built to separate retail investors from their money: SpaceX has NEVER turned a profit and lost close to $5 billion last year. At the offering you were paying more than 90x revenue and at the peak the market briefly valued it near 140x. 30 years ago the head of Sun Microsystems explained in detail why paying even 10x revenue almost always ends in tears, and he was right. But listen closely, because the valuation is not even the real story. The scarcity is what CREATED this valuation in the first place, and the calendar that kills the scarcity is what kills the price. Less than 5% of SpaceX shares were actually available to trade at the IPO. Then the index committees REWROTE their own rules to fast track the stock into the Nasdaq 100 just 15 trading days after listing, which forced every passive fund and index ETF in the country to buy at the exact moment the float was at its tightest. The Nasdaq inclusion alone forced an estimated $4.3 billion of buying, and the Russell reweighting added roughly $3 billion more. The supply was minuscule and the buying was mandatory. That's a manufactured squeeze, and it is why the stock went above $225 in its first week. Now watch what happens next, because this is the part they ain't explaining to you: The lockup was staggered on purpose, and the entire schedule is sitting in the prospectus for anyone who bothers to read it. In early August, right after Q2 earnings, 20% of the locked shares come free. Another 10% unlocks early if the stock trades 30% above the $135 IPO price going into the report. Then tranches of 7% hit the market at 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days after the IPO, which means fresh insider supply lands roughly every 2 to 3 weeks from late August through late October. Q3 earnings triggers the single biggest release of all, another 28%, roughly 1.3 billion shares. On December 8 the 180 day lockup expires entirely. And on June 12, 2027 comes the final wave, when Musk's own 6.4 billion shares, 42% of the whole company, become sellable for the first time. Add it all up and insiders could be free to sell as much as 44% of the company by early September, which would balloon the tradable float by roughly 900%. All of that supply lands on a stock the company deliberately packed with retail, because SpaceX reserved close to 30% of the offering for individual investors vs the usual 10%. This deal created over 4,400 paper millionaires inside the company. You think none of them are looking to cash out? Early holders are already loading up on puts to lock in what they have. First they keep the float tiny. Then they let the index rules force the world to buy at the top. Then they release a flood of insider stock into a crowd of retail buyers who were handed the shares up high. When the price finally breaks the offering level, the people who got in years ago at pennies on today's dollar will hit the bid, and the exit liquidity is your retirement account. And what are you actually left holding? Strip away the science fiction and the only business inside SpaceX that reliably earns money is Starlink, which produced $1.2 billion of operating income last quarter. A wonderful business worth hundreds of billions on its best day. NOT $2 trillion. Serious fair value work lands around $30 a share. Nobody has been a bigger bear on this deal than me. I called it out the moment it started trading, and it is already playing out on schedule as the shares have given back the entire squeeze and slipped below their opening print. I was Peter Lynch's auto analyst back in 1981 and I have watched every disaster since, and I am telling you this is one of the great wealth transfers of my lifetime packed into a fancy narrative. Tesla was the biggest misallocation of capital in the history of stock markets. SpaceX may have just surpassed it. SPCX goes straight onto my short list, and the beauty of this setup is that the catalyst is not a guess or something, it is literally a PUBLISHED CALENDAR. This is the most grossly overpriced stock at scale that I have ever seen.

George Noble

349,910 views • 2 months ago

🚨 SPACEX IS DONE? It opened at $150, ripped to $225 in three days, and everyone called it the buy of the decade. Now it's at $145 - an all-time low, below the open, sitting a few dollars above the IPO price. Down 35% from the top. The chart isn't breaking. It already broke. And this was the easy part. Here's where it goes from here: $145 → $135 → $120 → $100 Why this has to happen the math is brutal and public: → Only ~4% of shares actually trade. Nasdaq bent the float rule just to let this listing through. → It got jammed into the indexes, and every passive fund on the planet was forced to buy near the top. → Insiders still hold 96% of the supply. → The first unlock hits on August 6 - right at Q2 earnings. About 20% of insider shares go free, and the float doubles overnight. → Then it doubles again through the fall, all the way to a full unlock. Sit with that. This entire 35% collapse happened on a tiny float, with no supply. The actual wall of stock hasn't even arrived yet. And look at the backdrop: Apple's printing new all-time highs while SPCX bleeds to fresh lows. That's not a market problem that's a SpaceX problem. The hype died, the capex is enormous, the valuation is priced at ~100x sales, and the unlock cliff is dead ahead. Everything I said would happen is happening. No surprises. The next leg is where the real money gets made but not on the long side yet. Save this. Turn on notifications. Or come back in 30 days wishing you had.

Shelpid.WI3M

356,362 views • 2 months ago

🚨 THE SPACEX PUMP JUST ACTIVATED THE INSIDER SELL BUTTON And almost nobody buying at $159 understands what just happened: SpaceX IPO’d at $135 on June 12. Five days later, it peaked at $226. Everyone was calling it the trade of the decade. Almost nobody understands what is really happening. 95% of SpaceX shares are still locked. You are trading on just 5% of the total supply. A $2.35 trillion valuation was set by a tiny float that can be moved by thin volume. Thin liquidity pumps easily and dumps easily as well. Now the part that should concern everyone buying here: There is a clause buried in the lockup agreement. An early unlock can trigger if the stock holds 30% above the $135 IPO price. 30% above $135 is $175. SpaceX peaked at $226. It opened the door to an additional insider unlock. If this isn’t surprising you, the calendar will: In a month, the first insider shares can hit the market around Q2 earnings. December 8: the full 180-day lockup will be over. June 2027: Musk’s 6.4 billion personal shares unlock. This creates enormous selling pressure. I saw this movie before: Facebook IPO’d at $38 in 2012. Four months later, it was trading at $18. 60% of the value was erased. Now look at SpaceX. $2.35 trillion peak valuation. $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue. 125x sales. And Musk’s own $1 trillion revenue target is still “maybe by 2030.” You are paying for that future today. So ask yourself one question: Who is selling into your buy today, at $159? People who got in at $20/$40/$60. Insiders sitting on 5x, 8x, 10x gains who have waited years for this window. They do not need the price higher. They need buyers. And right now, that buyer is you. The rockets are real. The company is real. The technology is real. The unlock calendar is real too. At $159 after the $226 ATH, you are the exit. Remember: I was the one who publicly called Bitcoin’s ATH in October and cycle bottom in 2022. And I will call it again. That’s literally my job. Make sure to follow and turn notifications on. If you are not following yet, you will regret it.

Alex Mason 👁△

228,423 views • 2 months ago

🚨 SPACEX: THE BIGGEST EXIT LIQUIDITY IN HISTORY SpaceX is up 70% from IPO. Everyone is FOMOing hard. But almost nobody is talking about the real reason. Only 4% of shares are available to the public. So they can paint any price they want. The playbook never changes: Hold 96% in your pocket. Drop a few crumbs into the market. Pull the chart wherever you want. But now it’s wrapped as "the biggest IPO in history." And Wall Street has already found their FORCED buyers. On June 13, SPCX was rushed into the MSCI indices. This means every passive fund worldwide is now obligated to buy it. Not because they believe in Elon Musk. Because that's how the system works: If it's in the index, you must buy it. We're talking about $15–20 trillion in passive funds. Massive forced demand + tiny float = perfect pump. But the lock-ups are coming: August: first 20% unlock November: another big wave Day 180: everything unlocked In other words, early investors will exit in 1–2 months, not in 6 months like most people think. And who will they sell to? Retail and those funds that were just forced into the stock. No one is arguing that SpaceX isn't a real company with a real future. Moon bases, Mars, orbital data centers: all of this might happen. But not anytime soon. Right now, something else is happening. The US stock market is going through a wild overvaluation of everything. SpaceX is just the biggest example. They are selling a dream about space today, at a price that won't make sense for another 15 to 20 years. And as always, the crowd will buy the top just to fund the exit. Remember, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including short BTC from $111K in October. My next call will be the biggest one this cycle. Turn on notifications. Most people will follow me too late.

WhaleTwits

54,628 views • 2 months ago

🚨 SPACEX: THE BIGGEST EXIT LIQUIDITY IN HISTORY SpaceX is up 70% from IPO. Everyone is FOMOing hard. But almost nobody is talking about the real reason. Only 4% of shares are available to the public. So they can paint any price they want. The playbook never changes: Hold 96% in your pocket. Drop a few crumbs into the market. Pull the chart wherever you want. But now it’s wrapped as "the biggest IPO in history." And Wall Street has already found their FORCED buyers. On June 13, SPCX was rushed into the MSCI indices. This means every passive fund worldwide is now obligated to buy it. Not because they believe in Elon Musk. Because that's how the system works: If it's in the index, you must buy it. We're talking about $15–20 trillion in passive funds. Massive forced demand + tiny float = perfect pump. But the lock-ups are coming: August: first 20% unlock November: another big wave Day 180: everything unlocked In other words, early investors will exit in 1–2 months, not in 6 months like most people think. And who will they sell to? Retail and those funds that were just forced into the stock. No one is arguing that SpaceX isn't a real company with a real future. Moon bases, Mars, orbital data centers: all of this might happen. But not anytime soon. Right now, something else is happening. The US stock market is going through a wild overvaluation of everything. SpaceX is just the biggest example. They are selling a dream about space today, at a price that won't make sense for another 15 to 20 years. And as always, the crowd will buy the top just to fund the exit. Remember, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including short BTC from $111K in October. My next call will be the biggest one this cycle. Turn on notifications. Most people will follow me too late.

MARMOT

715,884 views • 2 months ago