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SpaceX said it has entered an agreement to either acquire Cursor for $60 billion later this year or pay $10 billion for their work together. Max Wiethe: "I think this is all being done to try to get the SpaceX IPO out this summer at the valuation that [Elon] wants."

44,121 views • 4 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Elon Musk's biggest competitor is secretly paying him $1.25 BILLION per month. SpaceX just revealed its financials for the first time in 23 years of existence. And buried deep in the S-1 is a detail that changes how you should think about the entire AI race. Anthropic, the company building Claude, the company that positions itself as OpenAI's biggest threat, the company valued at over $100 billion, is paying SpaceX $1.25 billion EVERY SINGLE MONTH for compute capacity through May 2029. That is $15 billion a year flowing directly from Elon's top AI competitor into Elon's bank account. Think about what that means: Every time Anthropic trains a new model, improves Claude, or lands an enterprise customer, a massive chunk of that revenue goes straight to the guy who owns the competing AI product. Anthropic is literally funding the war against itself. And that's just the beginning of what this filing reveals... The entire SpaceX IPO is structured around a bet most people haven't figured out yet. In 2025, SpaceX spent $20 billion in capex. 60% of that, roughly $12 billion, went to AI infrastructure. Rockets and satellites got the leftovers. In Q1 2026 alone, $7.7 billion out of $10 billion in total capex went to AI. The "rocket company" is spending like an AI company. Meanwhile, xAI, the division that houses Grok, generated $3.2 billion in revenue for the full year of 2025. But its R&D costs TRIPLED to $5 billion. It's burning cash at a pace that would have destroyed it as a standalone company. Which is exactly why Elon merged it into SpaceX two months before filing the IPO. And Starlink is the engine that makes the whole thing work: $11.4 billion in revenue, $4.4 billion in operating profit, and 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries. It's one of the most profitable subscription businesses on the planet right now. But the average revenue per user DROPPED from $99 per month in 2023 to $66 per month in March 2026. Subscribers quadrupled but each one is paying a third less. Starlink is growing by getting cheaper. SpaceX has lost $37 BILLION since it was founded. Net loss in 2025 was $4.9 billion. This is a company that has never turned an annual profit in 23 years of operation, and it is about to IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation. And the total addressable market SpaceX claims in the filing is $28.5 trillion. That is a QUARTER of global GDP. So here is what investors are actually buying when this IPO prices: They are buying the most profitable satellite internet business in history, stapled to an AI lab that is burning cash, wrapped inside a Mars colonization pitch that requires building a permanent city on another planet, funded by monthly billion-dollar payments from a direct competitor who has no other option for compute at that scale. This is the kind of thing only Elon could pull off.

Ricardo

208,631 views • 3 months ago

I think I figured out how SpaceX / Elon Musk are going to pay for the ~8GW of DC capacity SA has forecasted them to deploy next year… as Brad Gerstner mentioned in this clip, $NVDA shareholders do not want NVIDIA backstopping $100’s of billions of dollars worth of compute- it will terrify the market AND, it seems highly unlikely that the Hypers will pay directly for that much compute either since it will balloon their spending next year + at the economics needed here, it would all be going to Frontier labs (hurting the diversification strategy they all are trying to pursue) So… what I think is likely to happen: Brad Gerstner laid out that in the past, the financial structure of compute infra was you get 25% payback per year, you recoup the infra cost by end of year 4, then year 5 profit & year 6 is the kicker to bump IRR up nicely That’s now changed as the demand has become so intense at the Frontier labs that the payback period on infra has compressed maybe into <1yr basically, this $300-$400B in CapEx is going to show up in 3-6 month term lease agreements between SpaceX & Anthropic / OpenAI with enough margin to pay off the compute portion entirely (or vast majority) over the lifespan of the agreement money will trade hands basically up front from ANT/OAI to SpaceX then to NVIDIA. NVIDIA will be paid in full for the GPUs up front and they’ll commit to supporting Elon / SpaceX to stand up the compute in the timeframe specified (SpaceX will ultimately be on the hook for timelines) The kicker would be if NVIDIA captures any durable rent here for facilitating this… a perpetual dividend or something like that

Nick Dorsey

113,333 views • 25 days ago