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Stanford Prof. Christopher Manning warns frontier AI is being built inside “three monasteries,” with too little of what happens inside making it out to the rest of society: "If we just think of the whole space of frontier AI, a huge problem at the moment is so much of...

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16,053 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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Profilbild von Karim TechInnovateur
Karim TechInnovateurvor 11 Tagen

@chrmanning Trois monastères c'est déjà optimiste. Avec Mistral on a vu qu'un lab open source peut devenir un monastère fermé en 18 mois dès que les gros checks US arrivent. Le modèle Stanford est joli mais qui finance la recherche publique à ce niveau ?

Profilbild von GGUFzy
GGUFzyvor 12 Tagen

@chrmanning Three monasteries still feels like the right mental model for me.

Profilbild von Erika S
Erika Svor 12 Tagen

@chrmanning I'm wondering if the monasteries even hold. Talent leaves, papers leak, open models catch up a year later anyway.

Profilbild von 𝕱𝖚𝖑𝖑 𝕶𝖊𝖑𝖑𝖞
𝕱𝖚𝖑𝖑 𝕶𝖊𝖑𝖑𝖞vor 12 Tagen

@chrmanning ant, oa, but who does he think is the third monastery…? meta?

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Stanford Prof. Christopher Manning says METR’s dependence on frontier labs creates a client-capture problem that Stanford structurally doesn’t have: "METR has many extremely dedicated people who really believe that AI safety is important, and they do maintain financial independence from the major labs." "There's a very strong web of social and other connections between people in the frontier labs and METR. METR's whole business is working with these organizations, and that creates a dependence where you can't risk doing anything which causes you to lose your business." "That causes you to feel constrained by client capture, that you're constrained of not wanting to do anything that will annoy your client such that you lose your business." "For an organization like Stanford, this is a thing on the side. If we lost this business, it wouldn't matter. We'd be going off and doing other kinds of studies. That kind of independence is actually very important." Stanford NLP Group
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Stanford Prof. Christopher Manning says METR’s dependence on frontier labs creates a client-capture problem that Stanford structurally doesn’t have: "METR has many extremely dedicated people who really believe that AI safety is important, and they do maintain financial independence from the major labs." "There's a very strong web of social and other connections between people in the frontier labs and METR. METR's whole business is working with these organizations, and that creates a dependence where you can't risk doing anything which causes you to lose your business." "That causes you to feel constrained by client capture, that you're constrained of not wanting to do anything that will annoy your client such that you lose your business." "For an organization like Stanford, this is a thing on the side. If we lost this business, it wouldn't matter. We'd be going off and doing other kinds of studies. That kind of independence is actually very important." Stanford NLP Group

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Stanford Prof. Christopher Manning says today’s AI can absorb 2,000 years of human knowledge and still be far worse than humans at learning from just a few examples: "No matter how fantastic these systems are, there's still a lot we can't do. A lot of it looks better than it is because these huge models have been able to slurp up 2,000-plus years of human learning across all domains and stick it all in one huge neural net." "That's amazing because it knows everything to a first approximation. But really that's exploiting hard-won human knowledge, and that's different to the large language model discovering its own knowledge the same way human beings have been for 2,000 years." "At the end of the day, the secret of human intelligence is actually the speed at which we can learn. We only need to see a couple of examples of something, and we can learn something and intuit it." "Our current AI is nothing like that. We're substituting, here are 10,000 examples of this thing, because really the machine learning is very poor compared to human learning." Stanford NLP Group Stanford University
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#WATCH | Bengaluru, Karnataka: Co-founder, Sarvam AI, Pratyush Kumar says, "... Let me begin with what really is the mission of Sarvam. Many of you know us as a company, but it's important for us to tell you how we approach things. There are three things worth saying. Firstly, we are building at the frontier. AI is one of those technologies that is not only financially lucrative to build, but is also at the pinnacle of human engineering and insight. That pinnacle is moving much faster than in other generations of technology. That's why being at the frontier, at the very edge, becomes so significant. Everything that we do at Sarvam is about being at the frontier, building it, defining it, keeping pace with it, and pushing it further. Our first commitment is to have an innovation-led organisation that is building the frontier here in India..."
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Chamath: Frontier AI Leaders “Created a Total F*cking Mess” Short-sighted fearmongering and immaturity from frontier AI leaders has created deep mistrust, threatening AI’s potential as an open engine of economic mobility. That mistrust gives hyperscalers the chance to position themselves as trusted gatekeepers, using KYC, audit trails, and compliance infrastructure to turn AI into an oligopoly. Chamath Palihapitiya on the All-In Pod: “I think the leaders of the frontier labs leave a lot to be desired. I think what we're seeing is a consistent pattern of evasiveness and immaturity, and I think that does a huge disservice to the entire movement of AI. The key to a vibrant life is rooted in economic mobility, and I think AI is the grand leveler. It is the thing that can enable everyone to have unique amounts of economic mobility because they are unencumbered to figure out what their upper bound is. And against that backdrop, we have to live in this constant doomerism, hype cycle, naivety, and I think it holds us back. How does it hold us back? Tactically, number one, it creates mistrust. I think that Silicon Valley was already decaying in the prestige that it held in American society. We built important things. Then we veered away from that, and we started building less important things. And now we're at a point where we've potentially started to rebuild important things again, but we have this veneer of negativity and mistrust that are created in large part because we just cannot get our sh*t together. And the leaders of the frontier labs are public enemy number one. Number two, I think what it creates, which I think is bad, but what it creates is an incredible opportunity for the hyperscalers. And the very simple opportunity is to convince governments all around the world, not just America, that they should be the gatekeeper. A: You can't trust these guys. B: These models are all over the place. C: Let us be the ones that provision them to the world. We will wrap it in KYC. I've been now talking about KYC for a while, right? Who are these customers? Do they have identification? Why are they allowed to run these models? What are they prompting? Let's keep them so that there's an audit trail. All of these things are going to become issues. The Frontier Lab folks made it an issue because of how they've handled all of this up until now. And what does that create? Now that creates an oligopoly for AI, the most powerful economically leveling instrument we've ever seen in the hands of maybe a handful of hyperscalers, who by the way, would make an incredibly compelling argument, and they would be right. And the only counterfactual to it would be, ‘Well, trust us, guys, it should actually be much more open and in a far more distributed environment.’ Can you imagine the cost and the complexity if you ask the neoscaler to build the same robust KYC or the same VPC infrastructure that Amazon and Microsoft and Google have spent decades investing trillions of dollars in? It's an impossibility, Jason. So you can take all of those datacenters off the map. You can take all of the neoscaler market off the map. All of this was preventable. So instead of a diverse, robust, open ecosystem giving a tool that is the fundamental unlock for humans, we are now going to debate gatekeeping and duopoly versus oligopoly. They have created a total f*cking mess, and it's a shame.”
3:26

Chamath: Frontier AI Leaders “Created a Total F*cking Mess” Short-sighted fearmongering and immaturity from frontier AI leaders has created deep mistrust, threatening AI’s potential as an open engine of economic mobility. That mistrust gives hyperscalers the chance to position themselves as trusted gatekeepers, using KYC, audit trails, and compliance infrastructure to turn AI into an oligopoly. Chamath Palihapitiya on the All-In Pod: “I think the leaders of the frontier labs leave a lot to be desired. I think what we're seeing is a consistent pattern of evasiveness and immaturity, and I think that does a huge disservice to the entire movement of AI. The key to a vibrant life is rooted in economic mobility, and I think AI is the grand leveler. It is the thing that can enable everyone to have unique amounts of economic mobility because they are unencumbered to figure out what their upper bound is. And against that backdrop, we have to live in this constant doomerism, hype cycle, naivety, and I think it holds us back. How does it hold us back? Tactically, number one, it creates mistrust. I think that Silicon Valley was already decaying in the prestige that it held in American society. We built important things. Then we veered away from that, and we started building less important things. And now we're at a point where we've potentially started to rebuild important things again, but we have this veneer of negativity and mistrust that are created in large part because we just cannot get our sh*t together. And the leaders of the frontier labs are public enemy number one. Number two, I think what it creates, which I think is bad, but what it creates is an incredible opportunity for the hyperscalers. And the very simple opportunity is to convince governments all around the world, not just America, that they should be the gatekeeper. A: You can't trust these guys. B: These models are all over the place. C: Let us be the ones that provision them to the world. We will wrap it in KYC. I've been now talking about KYC for a while, right? Who are these customers? Do they have identification? Why are they allowed to run these models? What are they prompting? Let's keep them so that there's an audit trail. All of these things are going to become issues. The Frontier Lab folks made it an issue because of how they've handled all of this up until now. And what does that create? Now that creates an oligopoly for AI, the most powerful economically leveling instrument we've ever seen in the hands of maybe a handful of hyperscalers, who by the way, would make an incredibly compelling argument, and they would be right. And the only counterfactual to it would be, ‘Well, trust us, guys, it should actually be much more open and in a far more distributed environment.’ Can you imagine the cost and the complexity if you ask the neoscaler to build the same robust KYC or the same VPC infrastructure that Amazon and Microsoft and Google have spent decades investing trillions of dollars in? It's an impossibility, Jason. So you can take all of those datacenters off the map. You can take all of the neoscaler market off the map. All of this was preventable. So instead of a diverse, robust, open ecosystem giving a tool that is the fundamental unlock for humans, we are now going to debate gatekeeping and duopoly versus oligopoly. They have created a total f*cking mess, and it's a shame.”

The All-In Podcast

142,516 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Jensen to AI Leaders: “We have to be far more thoughtful” when communicating to the public Jensen Huang: “(AI) is not a biological being. It is not alien. It is not conscious. It is computer software.” “We say things like, ‘We don't understand it at all.’ It is not true. We understand a lot of things about this technology.” Chamath: “If you were in the seat in the boardroom of Anthropic over that whole scuttlebutt with the Department of War, what do you think you would've told Dario and that team to do, maybe, differently to try to change some of this outcome and some of this perception?” Jensen: “The first thing that I would say about Anthropic is, first of all, the technology is incredible. We are a large consumer of Anthropic technology.” “The desire to warn people about the capability of the technology is also really terrific.” “We just have to make sure that we understand that the world has a spectrum, and that warning is good, scaring is less good because this technology is too important to us.” “I think that it is fine to predict the future, but we need to be a little bit more circumspect. We need to have a little bit more humility, that, in fact, we can't completely predict the future.” “And to say things that are quite extreme, quite catastrophic, that there's no evidence of it happening, could be more damaging than people think.” “And of course we are technology leaders.” “There was a time when nobody listened to us, but now because technology is so important in the social fabric, such an important industry, so important to national security, our words do matter.” “And I think we have to be much more circumspect, we have to be more moderate, we have to be more balanced, we have to be far more thoughtful.”
1:27

Jensen to AI Leaders: “We have to be far more thoughtful” when communicating to the public Jensen Huang: “(AI) is not a biological being. It is not alien. It is not conscious. It is computer software.” “We say things like, ‘We don't understand it at all.’ It is not true. We understand a lot of things about this technology.” Chamath: “If you were in the seat in the boardroom of Anthropic over that whole scuttlebutt with the Department of War, what do you think you would've told Dario and that team to do, maybe, differently to try to change some of this outcome and some of this perception?” Jensen: “The first thing that I would say about Anthropic is, first of all, the technology is incredible. We are a large consumer of Anthropic technology.” “The desire to warn people about the capability of the technology is also really terrific.” “We just have to make sure that we understand that the world has a spectrum, and that warning is good, scaring is less good because this technology is too important to us.” “I think that it is fine to predict the future, but we need to be a little bit more circumspect. We need to have a little bit more humility, that, in fact, we can't completely predict the future.” “And to say things that are quite extreme, quite catastrophic, that there's no evidence of it happening, could be more damaging than people think.” “And of course we are technology leaders.” “There was a time when nobody listened to us, but now because technology is so important in the social fabric, such an important industry, so important to national security, our words do matter.” “And I think we have to be much more circumspect, we have to be more moderate, we have to be more balanced, we have to be far more thoughtful.”

The All-In Podcast

57,581 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

$GOOG Koray Kavukcuoglu says he is 100% certain Google DeepMind will get back to the frontier and that nothing else is more important "To put it very bluntly, there's nothing other than being at the frontier that is important for us. Yeah, that's it. All our goals, all our focus is always about that." "And when we are making decisions, when we are making prioritizations in terms of ideas, in terms of what to do and what goals we should follow, it's all about being at the frontier." "And I'm a hundred percent certain that we will be at the frontier." " We have an amazing team. I have so much trust in the team. There's like a great amount of creativity and dedication in the team, and being part of Google, we have amazing, amazing resources available to us. We have the whole full stack that we can, and we are able to optimize to be able to achieve our goals." ________ For a deeper look at Gemini 4 progression across multiple Google exec interviews:
0:51

$GOOG Koray Kavukcuoglu says he is 100% certain Google DeepMind will get back to the frontier and that nothing else is more important "To put it very bluntly, there's nothing other than being at the frontier that is important for us. Yeah, that's it. All our goals, all our focus is always about that." "And when we are making decisions, when we are making prioritizations in terms of ideas, in terms of what to do and what goals we should follow, it's all about being at the frontier." "And I'm a hundred percent certain that we will be at the frontier." " We have an amazing team. I have so much trust in the team. There's like a great amount of creativity and dedication in the team, and being part of Google, we have amazing, amazing resources available to us. We have the whole full stack that we can, and we are able to optimize to be able to achieve our goals." ________ For a deeper look at Gemini 4 progression across multiple Google exec interviews:

Fireside Alpha

72,195 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen

Avi Patel says VCs will hand you millions if you say “AI” three times in a Stanford hoodie “If you dropped out of Stanford and walked into a VC office wearing a Stanford hoodie, acted really rude to the VCs, didn’t value their opinions, and said the word AI maybe three times, you’d usually get a check for a couple million dollars” “The problem is that a lot of Stanford kids are not smart autistic, they’re just retrdd. They don’t have brain cells, they don’t know how to communicate, and they can’t build a company or code. So they walk in and the VC mistakes the kid for the next Mark Zuckerberg with flip flops and a Stanford hoodie, and just puts infinite money into them. It’s like this is the most brain dead shit ever”
1:00

Avi Patel says VCs will hand you millions if you say “AI” three times in a Stanford hoodie “If you dropped out of Stanford and walked into a VC office wearing a Stanford hoodie, acted really rude to the VCs, didn’t value their opinions, and said the word AI maybe three times, you’d usually get a check for a couple million dollars” “The problem is that a lot of Stanford kids are not smart autistic, they’re just retrdd. They don’t have brain cells, they don’t know how to communicate, and they can’t build a company or code. So they walk in and the VC mistakes the kid for the next Mark Zuckerberg with flip flops and a Stanford hoodie, and just puts infinite money into them. It’s like this is the most brain dead shit ever”

Mikli

276,748 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

"People talk about [AI] being the death of creativity, or that this is slop and that its somehow against creativity. I think it's absolutely just the opposite. I think [AI] has raised the bar for creativity so much higher." - beeple at Stanford
1:39

"People talk about [AI] being the death of creativity, or that this is slop and that its somehow against creativity. I think it's absolutely just the opposite. I think [AI] has raised the bar for creativity so much higher." - beeple at Stanford

NODE

57,176 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

This 40 minute lecture at Stanford by Apoorv Agarwal on the Economics of AI supercycle is worth a watch Apoorv is currently a Partner at Altimeter and is directly involved in some of their key AI investments, including OpenAI and Glean Still find it incredible that the internet gives us access to this level of information directly. A course I will definitely be following along Sourced from MS&E 435 Stanford University
39:50

This 40 minute lecture at Stanford by Apoorv Agarwal on the Economics of AI supercycle is worth a watch Apoorv is currently a Partner at Altimeter and is directly involved in some of their key AI investments, including OpenAI and Glean Still find it incredible that the internet gives us access to this level of information directly. A course I will definitely be following along Sourced from MS&E 435 Stanford University

Boring_Business

245,197 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten