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Steve Eisman on private equity's software problem: "Private Equity investments in these software companies…they’ll never get out.” “…The public multiples have been cut by more than half. There's nothing you can do about that." Eisman doesn’t think mergers solve this either given the multiples will still remain compressed.

Wall Street Rollup

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The Big Short’s Steve Eisman roasts Software Private Equity investors: "Never underestimate the importance of an excel spreadsheet in the way people think about companies.”

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Big warning from Apollo Pres Jim Zelter "going to get more secular distress than cyclical distress". "I think you're going to get more secular distress than cyclical distress. That's very important. When we think about secular distress, I think the development of AI will change broad business models. We've talked a lot about healthcare technology.... about the outsourcing businesses... about software, enterprise software. The AI impact can have dramatic impact on those business models. And typically, when you go back in the underwriting memo, you think about your base case and the downside being down 5, 10, 15%. When you have secular dislocation, you've missed the downside by multiples. And that's what you're probably going to have" Great interview Lisa Abramowicz annmarie hordern #oott

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We talked with Alex Jacobson (Co-Founder & Managing Partner) about the evolving private markets. "SpaceX gives employees equity and runs tenders regularly so that equity becomes liquidity. Although the liquidity price is lower than public market value, employees know their equity will grow because SpaceX keeps expanding. "The strategy is to give employees certainty that the equity they've been issued will be worth a lot more in the future. That is harder to do in the public markets because everything is perfectly priced. In private markets, if you run your process properly, you can have this very deterministic outcome for your employees."

We talked with Alex Jacobson (Co-Founder & Managing Partner) about the evolving private markets. "SpaceX gives employees equity and runs tenders regularly so that equity becomes liquidity. Although the liquidity price is lower than public market value, employees know their equity will grow because SpaceX keeps expanding. "The strategy is to give employees certainty that the equity they've been issued will be worth a lot more in the future. That is harder to do in the public markets because everything is perfectly priced. In private markets, if you run your process properly, you can have this very deterministic outcome for your employees."

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Zohran Mamdani is right about the city’s grocery problem: Costs for groceries are breaking the bank for many New Yorkers. But he doesn’t seem to know that public grocery stores have already been tried, and have failed, across the country — or that the private sector can solve the problem, if the government helped rather than hindered it. Rikki Schlott breaks down what you need to know.

Zohran Mamdani is right about the city’s grocery problem: Costs for groceries are breaking the bank for many New Yorkers. But he doesn’t seem to know that public grocery stores have already been tried, and have failed, across the country — or that the private sector can solve the problem, if the government helped rather than hindered it. Rikki Schlott breaks down what you need to know.

New York Post

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Benedict Evans says AI means more software, not less: "There's going to be a bunch of stuff you could do with software that you just couldn't do before at all. And so there will be more competition." "If you think about the enterprise software fleet today, you've got three buckets... big iron horizontal systems, so SAP and Workday and your CRM... vertical software... and then in the middle, this fuzzy improvised space of Excel and email and the shared file system." "Now you add ChatGPT to that. Do you do that in an LLM? Is there an LLM tool that means you can do that in Salesforce where you couldn't do it before, or you can do it in your vertical app that you couldn't do before?" "All of which is a long way of saying, what does this do to software? And it must be more software. Way more software." Benedict Evans with Erik Torenberg

Benedict Evans says AI means more software, not less: "There's going to be a bunch of stuff you could do with software that you just couldn't do before at all. And so there will be more competition." "If you think about the enterprise software fleet today, you've got three buckets... big iron horizontal systems, so SAP and Workday and your CRM... vertical software... and then in the middle, this fuzzy improvised space of Excel and email and the shared file system." "Now you add ChatGPT to that. Do you do that in an LLM? Is there an LLM tool that means you can do that in Salesforce where you couldn't do it before, or you can do it in your vertical app that you couldn't do before?" "All of which is a long way of saying, what does this do to software? And it must be more software. Way more software." Benedict Evans with Erik Torenberg

a16z

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When Will a16z Go Public: " There's nothing that we're missing today that we could solve by going public... I can imagine venture firms going public. I think you'd have to have a real theory on the value that you would get, and you would have to really sign up for what it really takes to run a public company these days." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸

When Will a16z Go Public: " There's nothing that we're missing today that we could solve by going public... I can imagine venture firms going public. I think you'd have to have a real theory on the value that you would get, and you would have to really sign up for what it really takes to run a public company these days." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸

Harry Stebbings

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Orlando Bravo: "The SaaSpocalypse is over... AI is an enormous, enormous tailwind for software companies... I was here last year at Super Return, and I think one of the LLM leaders made a comment that by this year, 50% of all white-collar jobs are going to be gone. And somebody in private equity made a comment that 50% of the people in this conference wouldn't have a job by next year. And look at the conference. You even had security outside. There's more people here than ever before... Our companies, 60% of the code that they write is machine-generated. But our number of developers, we have 20,000 of them, they're going up because now they can be a lot more productive."

Orlando Bravo: "The SaaSpocalypse is over... AI is an enormous, enormous tailwind for software companies... I was here last year at Super Return, and I think one of the LLM leaders made a comment that by this year, 50% of all white-collar jobs are going to be gone. And somebody in private equity made a comment that 50% of the people in this conference wouldn't have a job by next year. And look at the conference. You even had security outside. There's more people here than ever before... Our companies, 60% of the code that they write is machine-generated. But our number of developers, we have 20,000 of them, they're going up because now they can be a lot more productive."

Marcelo P. Lima

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BRENNAN: As a conservative, do you think the government should have ownership stakes in private companies? MIKE LAWLER: Generally speaking, no ... I think what the president is seemingly trying to do is get a return on these tens of billions of dollars that are being invested by US taxpayers into companies like Intel

BRENNAN: As a conservative, do you think the government should have ownership stakes in private companies? MIKE LAWLER: Generally speaking, no ... I think what the president is seemingly trying to do is get a return on these tens of billions of dollars that are being invested by US taxpayers into companies like Intel

Aaron Rupar

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Ford CEO Jim Farley on why it's so difficult for legacy car companies to get software right & why Tesla’s vertically integrated approach is the right one: “We farmed out all the modules that control the vehicles to our suppliers because we could bid them against each other, so Bosch would do the body control module, someone else would do the seat control module, someone else would do the engine control module. We have about 150 of these modules with semiconductors all through the car. The problem is the software are all written by you know 150 different companies and they don't talk to each other. So even though it says Ford on the front, I actually have to go to Bosch to get permission to change their seat Control software. So even if I had a high-speed modem in the vehicle and and I had the ability to write their software, it's actually their IP and I have 150, we call it the loose Confederation of software providers, 150 completely different software programming languages, you know all the structure of the software is different. It’s millions of code and we can't even understand it all. That's why at Ford we've decided in the second generation product to completely insource electric architecture. To do that you need to write all the software yourself, but just remember car companies have never written software like this, ever, so we're literally writing how the vehicle operates the software to operate the vehicle for the first time ever.” via Everything Electric Show:

Ford CEO Jim Farley on why it's so difficult for legacy car companies to get software right & why Tesla’s vertically integrated approach is the right one: “We farmed out all the modules that control the vehicles to our suppliers because we could bid them against each other, so Bosch would do the body control module, someone else would do the seat control module, someone else would do the engine control module. We have about 150 of these modules with semiconductors all through the car. The problem is the software are all written by you know 150 different companies and they don't talk to each other. So even though it says Ford on the front, I actually have to go to Bosch to get permission to change their seat Control software. So even if I had a high-speed modem in the vehicle and and I had the ability to write their software, it's actually their IP and I have 150, we call it the loose Confederation of software providers, 150 completely different software programming languages, you know all the structure of the software is different. It’s millions of code and we can't even understand it all. That's why at Ford we've decided in the second generation product to completely insource electric architecture. To do that you need to write all the software yourself, but just remember car companies have never written software like this, ever, so we're literally writing how the vehicle operates the software to operate the vehicle for the first time ever.” via Everything Electric Show:

Sawyer Merritt

1,172,915 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Marc Bhargava (Marc Bhargava) Managing Director at General Catalyst on how 'AI Roll-Ups' are unlocking software-like margins for a much larger TAM "Why hasn't everyone in VC rushed to invest in services businesses? like accounting legal IT insurance? Well they historically have not been that profitable. So they sort of break-even generally in many cases, well obviously as you get to scale in that $1T of revenue in software the marginal cost is really low & they can become very profitable & have amazing cash flow Companies like CrowdStrike or ServiceNow or others you know kind of show this model And of course the hyper scalers like Amazon, Google, Microsoft There are all these amazing proven examples in the software field of having very strong free cash flow & on high margins. Our thesis somewhat is well these un-sexy services industries that were break even or 15 to 20% EBITDA margins net income obviously much lower they can look like software from a margin profile 'Cause once you take out the repetitive tasks & you take out 30-40-50% of what people do & free them up to do the hard stuff with the same cost basis you can 50% grow the revenue or double the revenue ..your margin profile now looks much much more similar to software. So we think in this much larger TAM than software, you can have software-like margins."

Molly O’Shea

27,038 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

Fivetran CEO George Fraser's theory of the SaaSpocalypse: "There's a lot more uncertainty embedded in all these SaaS companies... than there was a year ago." "I don't really buy into this reason that all these SaaS categories are gonna disappear and be replaced with vibe-coded software. I think there will be some, but I think the bigger threat is simply new companies coming along. It is just so much easier to write software now that AI-native companies will just zoom and catch up to the established incumbents and maybe be better." George Fraser with martin_casado

Fivetran CEO George Fraser's theory of the SaaSpocalypse: "There's a lot more uncertainty embedded in all these SaaS companies... than there was a year ago." "I don't really buy into this reason that all these SaaS categories are gonna disappear and be replaced with vibe-coded software. I think there will be some, but I think the bigger threat is simply new companies coming along. It is just so much easier to write software now that AI-native companies will just zoom and catch up to the established incumbents and maybe be better." George Fraser with martin_casado

a16z

30,507 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire wrote a private hardware manifesto arguing that over the next 25 years, most of the money will be made in hardware: "Every software revolution is preceded by a hardware revolution." "To have the iOS App Store that enabled Uber, DoorDash, and all of these great companies - you needed to have the iPhone." "This AI revolution - we're seeing what it can do from the software layer, but it's still limited by hardware." "The hardware we were doing for a long time was all following Moore's Law. It was all branching out of this decision in the mid-1950s to go all in on the silicon supply chain." "That has created magic, and there's still a couple orders of magnitude of juice to squeeze, but we’re hitting fundamental physics limits - Dennard scaling, things like that." "I think this tech tree is branching into humanoid robots, into silicon photonics, into orbital data centers - all of these new hardware areas where there's going to be 20+ years of progress." "There's going to be incredible businesses built on the back of this. And a lot of dumpster fires."

Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire wrote a private hardware manifesto arguing that over the next 25 years, most of the money will be made in hardware: "Every software revolution is preceded by a hardware revolution." "To have the iOS App Store that enabled Uber, DoorDash, and all of these great companies - you needed to have the iPhone." "This AI revolution - we're seeing what it can do from the software layer, but it's still limited by hardware." "The hardware we were doing for a long time was all following Moore's Law. It was all branching out of this decision in the mid-1950s to go all in on the silicon supply chain." "That has created magic, and there's still a couple orders of magnitude of juice to squeeze, but we’re hitting fundamental physics limits - Dennard scaling, things like that." "I think this tech tree is branching into humanoid robots, into silicon photonics, into orbital data centers - all of these new hardware areas where there's going to be 20+ years of progress." "There's going to be incredible businesses built on the back of this. And a lot of dumpster fires."

TBPN

218,127 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Probably the best take I have heard on why there is so much fear around software exposure in private equity and credit because of AI From David Sacks "Historically we only had two good exits for software businesses. One was IPO. The other was M&A. Then these big private equity shops came along and gave us a third potential exit. You would sell to them and then they would raise the capital based on one third equity and two third debt. So it was debt financed buyouts. It is something that has been around in the non technology part of the economy for a long time but was a relatively new entrant in the world of technology. And the reason for that is if you have debt financed a purchase, you need to have very stable cash flows. Because if you miss and you cant pay your interest on the debt, you will lose all your equity because the debt holders will foreclose. It was belief for a long time that software did have predictable cash flows, at least for the mature businesses."

Probably the best take I have heard on why there is so much fear around software exposure in private equity and credit because of AI From David Sacks "Historically we only had two good exits for software businesses. One was IPO. The other was M&A. Then these big private equity shops came along and gave us a third potential exit. You would sell to them and then they would raise the capital based on one third equity and two third debt. So it was debt financed buyouts. It is something that has been around in the non technology part of the economy for a long time but was a relatively new entrant in the world of technology. And the reason for that is if you have debt financed a purchase, you need to have very stable cash flows. Because if you miss and you cant pay your interest on the debt, you will lose all your equity because the debt holders will foreclose. It was belief for a long time that software did have predictable cash flows, at least for the mature businesses."

Boring_Business

404,103 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

#WATCH | Mumbai, Maharashtra: On the Jevons paradox and software demand expansion, Neelkanth Mishra, Executive Director Designate of the World Bank, says, “…If you think about what the major cost of a software firm is, it is people. So, if the writing of software is getting automated, those firms will be the first to make adjustments. But on the whole, it seems that the Jevons paradox—which dictates that as the cost of writing software falls, the amount of software written goes up—is actually playing out. If an XYZ company, which is a product company, was spending, say, $100 million on writing software and can now do it for $70 million, they might need to lay off some people; that is their business priority. But if the amount of software written goes up three to four times, the number of software engineers in the ecosystem will not change… This panic and paranoia about massive job losses is something that I think is, at this stage, unfounded.”

#WATCH | Mumbai, Maharashtra: On the Jevons paradox and software demand expansion, Neelkanth Mishra, Executive Director Designate of the World Bank, says, “…If you think about what the major cost of a software firm is, it is people. So, if the writing of software is getting automated, those firms will be the first to make adjustments. But on the whole, it seems that the Jevons paradox—which dictates that as the cost of writing software falls, the amount of software written goes up—is actually playing out. If an XYZ company, which is a product company, was spending, say, $100 million on writing software and can now do it for $70 million, they might need to lay off some people; that is their business priority. But if the amount of software written goes up three to four times, the number of software engineers in the ecosystem will not change… This panic and paranoia about massive job losses is something that I think is, at this stage, unfounded.”

ANI

114,594 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Great to see this get a mention from Amy Remeikis on #Insiders: "We're still going to have Work for the Dole. We're still going to have the private Workforce providers receiving billions of dollars, and you can imagine there's a huge section of the community upset about that"

Great to see this get a mention from Amy Remeikis on #Insiders: "We're still going to have Work for the Dole. We're still going to have the private Workforce providers receiving billions of dollars, and you can imagine there's a huge section of the community upset about that"

jeremy poxon

100,946 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

🇺🇸 CHAMATH: IPOs ARE BOOSTING THE AMERICAN ECONOMY "You can have a ton of money go into these private companies, take them public at a very low cost of capital. A normalization of the vehicle has now raised more than $200 billion for American companies. Investors want a competitive IPO market that brings many American businesses to the public market so they can be owned by everybody. The incentives are such that there's no compensation unless it works." Source: The All-In Podcast, Chamath Palihapitiya

🇺🇸 CHAMATH: IPOs ARE BOOSTING THE AMERICAN ECONOMY "You can have a ton of money go into these private companies, take them public at a very low cost of capital. A normalization of the vehicle has now raised more than $200 billion for American companies. Investors want a competitive IPO market that brings many American businesses to the public market so they can be owned by everybody. The incentives are such that there's no compensation unless it works." Source: The All-In Podcast, Chamath Palihapitiya

Mario Nawfal

70,976 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

"Warren Buffett has this old metaphor: the yes basket, the no basket, and the too-hard basket. For me, software is generally in the too-hard basket." — Brad Gerstner Brad shows how the recent rerating of software stocks simply brought them down to the average market P/E ratio. "So when I hear everybody crying, 'Hey, these multiples aren't fair,' it looks to me like the multiples reset from an above-market multiple — where everybody thought the revenue and earnings were impenetrable — to now, they're saying, 'Maybe 3-5 years out, they'll be replaced. So we're going to raise the discount rate and lower the multiple.' They've only lowered it to the market multiple." "Let me just suggest there's a possibility [software] will trade well below the market multiple. I'm not wishing for that, I'm just saying there's a distribution of potential outcomes here." "If you get on the AI train, if you get in the token flow, you're gonna get an above-market multiple. If you don't, if you slow down and it looks like every time that computational intelligence improves, your business gets worse, then I promise you, [you] will trade below the market multiple."

"Warren Buffett has this old metaphor: the yes basket, the no basket, and the too-hard basket. For me, software is generally in the too-hard basket." — Brad Gerstner Brad shows how the recent rerating of software stocks simply brought them down to the average market P/E ratio. "So when I hear everybody crying, 'Hey, these multiples aren't fair,' it looks to me like the multiples reset from an above-market multiple — where everybody thought the revenue and earnings were impenetrable — to now, they're saying, 'Maybe 3-5 years out, they'll be replaced. So we're going to raise the discount rate and lower the multiple.' They've only lowered it to the market multiple." "Let me just suggest there's a possibility [software] will trade well below the market multiple. I'm not wishing for that, I'm just saying there's a distribution of potential outcomes here." "If you get on the AI train, if you get in the token flow, you're gonna get an above-market multiple. If you don't, if you slow down and it looks like every time that computational intelligence improves, your business gets worse, then I promise you, [you] will trade below the market multiple."

TBPN

77,089 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

.Stephen Hayes: "It has been widely reported that Donald Trump was down on [Tulsi Gabbard], and there's nothing you can do ... that will get you back in his good graces sooner and faster than going and supporting his crazy arguments about the 2020 election having been stolen."

.Stephen Hayes: "It has been widely reported that Donald Trump was down on [Tulsi Gabbard], and there's nothing you can do ... that will get you back in his good graces sooner and faster than going and supporting his crazy arguments about the 2020 election having been stolen."

Washington Week with The Atlantic | PBS

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The most terrifying thing to look out for when buying a $10-80M private jet? Corrosion. "There's probably nothing that will cost you more money on an airplane than a problem with regard to corrosion." It's often the most expensive issue an aircraft can have. • Repairs can take months • Components may need to be re-engineered • Costs can run into the hundreds of thousands of dollars Izzy Founder of Craft

The most terrifying thing to look out for when buying a $10-80M private jet? Corrosion. "There's probably nothing that will cost you more money on an airplane than a problem with regard to corrosion." It's often the most expensive issue an aircraft can have. • Repairs can take months • Components may need to be re-engineered • Costs can run into the hundreds of thousands of dollars Izzy Founder of Craft

Molly O’Shea

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