Загрузка видео...

Не удалось загрузить видео

На главную

🚨 STOP AND LOOK AT THIS $SPX CHART 🚨 The S&P 500 has run the same cycle for 100 years - 25 years bull - 9-12 years bear I know what you're thinking - "we're still in the bull" I've heard this theory before. I just stopped believing it...

12,696 просмотров • 27 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

Комментарии: 0

Нет доступных комментариев

Здесь появятся комментарии из оригинального поста

Похожие видео

Elon Musk was asked how fast AI is moving. His answer wasn’t about the technology. It was about the one man who got it all right and was still too conservative. Musk: “I have to give credit to Ray Kurzweil in being actually remarkably accurate in his predictions. If anything, I think he was perhaps a bit conservative in his predictions.” Kurzweil spent 30 years making forecasts that made serious people uncomfortable. He predicted timelines that sounded impossible. He was mocked for it. He was right about nearly all of them. And Musk just called him conservative. Musk: “The dedicated AI compute appears to be growing by a factor of 10 every six months.” 10x every six months. Musk: “Almost a 100x improvement per year, at least for the next few years.” Moore’s Law was a 2x improvement every two years. That single curve drove every technological shift of the last 50 years. The internet. Smartphones. Cloud computing. All of it rode a 2x curve. AI is on a 100x curve. And the current infrastructure isn’t running beside the new one. It’s becoming it. Musk: “Probably a lot of the data centers, maybe most of the data centers that currently do conventional compute, will transition to AI compute.” Everything that runs the world you know is being rewired for the world that comes next. Human beings process the future in straight lines. We take the speed of the last decade and project it forward. Exponential growth doesn’t work that way. It’s invisible until it’s everywhere. The most aggressive forecaster in the history of technology was too conservative. That’s not about Kurzweil being wrong about the direction. That’s about the human brain being wrong about the speed. The limit was never the technology. It was the organ we use to comprehend it. And that organ hasn’t been upgraded in 200,000 years.

Dustin

213,892 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Marc Andreessen just explained why being right about AI for 80 straight years is about to be the most dangerous position in technology. Andreessen: “The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘this time is different.’” He’s talking about AI. And he’s about to turn that phrase on the people hiding behind it. Four times in 80 years, AI promised to change everything. Four times it collapsed. 1943.First neural network. Dead within a decade. 1944.Dartmouth. Scientists thought they’d crack AGI in one summer. They didn’t crack it in forty years. 1980s. Over a billion into expert systems. Entire market gone by ’87. 2016.Machine learning. Faded before anyone could ship a product. The skeptics weren’t lucky. They were 4-for-4. Every generation that believed “this time is different” got buried. And that is exactly why this moment is so dangerous. Because being right four consecutive times doesn’t just build a position. It builds an identity. And identity doesn’t update when the evidence does. Andreessen: “I’ll tell you what’s different. Like, now it’s working.” Not one breakthrough. Four. In the same window. Language. Reasoning. Coding. Self-improvement. All deployed. All producing revenue. Not in a lab. In the economy. Today. Then the line that should have ended every remaining debate. Andreessen: “If Linus Torvalds is saying that the AI coding is now better than he is… that’s never happened before.” The man who built the operating system the internet runs on just conceded the machine writes better code than he does. Coding is the highest bar in technology. If AI clears it, everything below was already decided. But the fourth breakthrough isn’t like the other three. Language, reasoning, and coding are capabilities. Self-improvement is a rate of change. The machine is researching, coding, and optimizing itself. No human engineers in the loop. Every technology in human history advanced at the speed of the people building it. This one just left that constraint behind. And the hardware confirms it. Nvidia’s old chips are gaining value after shipping. GPUs sold out years ahead. That has never happened in computing. Hardware doesn’t appreciate. Unless the market has decided this isn’t a cycle. It’s infrastructure. Andreessen: “This is the culmination of 80 years worth of work and this is the time it’s becoming real.” Eighty years. Researchers poured entire careers into this problem. Some of them died before it worked. And now all four pieces arrived at once. The skeptics built a perfect model from eight decades of collapse. Flawless pattern recognition. But a perfect model trained on a world that no longer exists doesn’t protect you. It traps you inside the last version of reality. For 80 years, doubting AI was the most rational position a human being could hold. It just became the most expensive.

Dustin

13,740 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

From Dan Lorenc on the malware attack that almost took down the entire internet last year: “There’s a popular compression library that’s used in almost every piece of software. And it had been maintained by one person in his spare time for the last 20 years. And then a couple years ago, somebody just decided to start helping him. They jumped in, fixed a bunch of bugs, and did a lot of great work. And then that first person got tired of working on it. So he handed the whole project over to this other person. It turned out that other person was just a pseudonym and was not a real person. And within six months of getting control of the project, they had put in a carefully orchestrated set of malware that was really hard to detect and no one noticed. And because it was so widely used, the exploit would've basically given that person remote access to any computer running that piece of software, which was basically everything connected to the Internet. But because it was open source and the code was transparent, some random engineer just happened to be running some benchmarks on a weekend. And he noticed that program was a little bit slower than it used to be, and that it was making a weird cryptographic operation to check something. And right before this thing got widely deployed across every device, he dug in, and discovered that there was a backdoor put in. This was the closest thing to a full-blown internet crisis that we’ve ever had. And they still have no idea who did it. It was just an anonymous email account. No one ever traced it back to an individual. And that's the long game. This person spent years just doing good work and earning the communities trust.”

The Peel

47,683 просмотров • 1 год назад

I've been saying it for months: The AI hype will die. And I'm watching it happen in real time. Let me tell you something about market cycles after 45 years on Wall Strett: When everyone believes the same story, when valuations price in perfection, when "this time is different" becomes consensus... That's when the trade is OVER. The Mag 7 spent $380 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025. CFOs across America can't point to measurable returns. No productivity gains. No labor savings. No revenue acceleration. Just massive capex and promises of transformation "coming soon." I've seen this play out before. Dotcom 2000. Everyone knew the internet would change everything. They were RIGHT about the technology. They were WRONG about the timing and the valuations. The companies that survived took 15 years to make new highs. Here's what's happening now: The Mag 7 has already started underperforming. Since October 2025, the S&P 493 is outperforming the Magnificent 7. Small caps are waking up. The Russell 2000 is finally showing signs of life after years of underperformance. This is the rotation I predicted. And it's just getting started. Why small caps now? Because they're trading at decade-low valuations relative to Big Tech. The P/E spread is 10+ points. But earnings growth is only 5 points lower. You're getting 95% of the growth at 50% of the valuation. The Mag 7 is priced for AI transformation happening NOW. But Goldman says measurable GDP impact doesn't start until 2027. That's a 2-3 year gap between expectations and reality. Markets don't wait politely when they realize they're wrong. I ran the #1 mutual fund in the country at Fidelity and worked under Peter Lynch. And I'm telling you: This is what a market top in a narrow leadership group looks like. Not a crash. Not a crisis. Just a slow realization that the future takes longer to arrive than the stock price assumed. Meanwhile, small and mid-caps are trading like it's 2008. Except we're not in a financial crisis. We're in a market where everyone is crowded into seven stocks and ignoring 2,500 others. That doesn't last. The AI infrastructure build is real. But infrastructure builders get paid first. Productivity beneficiaries get paid later. Much later. And the market is finally starting to figure that out.

George Noble

109,057 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад