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STOP COMPARING ANTHROPIC TO GOOGLE Let me destroy that comparison in three lines - Google IPO valuation: $23B - Anthropic IPO valuation: $965B That's 42x more expensive before retail even touches it For Anthropic to match Google's return - it would need a $175 trillion market cap The entire...

218,791 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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Anthropic just told Wall Street that replacing human workers is worth $30 trillion a year. The largest IPO ever is about to go on sale, and the product being sold is "replacing jobs.“ $30 trillion is bigger than the entire economy of China. It's about the size of the whole United States economy, which runs around $32.5 trillion a year. And it's roughly a quarter of every dollar earned on this planet. Anthropic is telling investors that's the market. Now here's the part nobody explained: Companies usually size a market by counting an industry. They add up the software licences, the cloud contracts, the subscriptions, whatever that category buys in a year. But Anthropic did something else… They built the $30 trillion figure from the full scope of work that could be completed using AI models. So the market Anthropic sized is the world's wage bill. And this is where it gets really interesting: Anthropic's revenue right now runs about $65 billion a year, up from roughly $9 billion at the end of 2025. So Anthropic is telling investors it has captured 0.2% of its own market. The 191 technology companies in the S&P 1500 made $2.4 trillion in revenue last year. That's EVERY listed tech company added together. Anthropic is claiming a market TWELVE times bigger than all of them combined. That $30 trillion is doing one job here: Making the price look reasonable. Anthropic wants a valuation near $2 trillion and a raise of up to $100 billion, which would beat the $86.2 billion SpaceX pulled in the biggest IPO in history. Against $30 trillion, a $2 trillion price is basically nothing. Without it, you're buying a company with $65 billion in sales for $2 trillion. Then look at who steers the thing afterwards: Dario Amodei owns roughly 2% of Anthropic. Before the listing, Amodei and his co-founders are getting a special class of stock with extra voting power. The trust that appoints most of the board just dropped from four trustees to three. So whoever buys into the biggest IPO in history gets no vote and no board seat. And the insiders may get to sell into it. Anthropic is weighing letting existing shareholders cash out inside the offering, which SpaceX refused to allow. We watched this exact thing play out three months ago: SpaceX told investors its market was $28.5 trillion, priced at $135 a share in June, and traded under $105 in early August. Uber ran the same play in 2019 with a $6 trillion market. But the revenue here is real, and that's what makes it so hard to dismiss. Anthropic grew 7x in 7 months. Serious funds will ignore the $30 trillion completely and model the near-term target of roughly $200 billion in sales by the end of the decade. The $30 trillion is aimed at everyone else reading the headline. And Anthropic is a public benefit corporation. Amodei warned in his own essay this year about "a level of wealth concentration that will break society." He's predicted AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs. Job candidates are reportedly even asked how they'd feel if the company killed its own product on safety grounds and the stock went to zero. Anthropic took its name from anthropos, the Greek word for human being. And the pitch it's carrying to Wall Street is that its software can do the work humans currently get paid for. If Anthropic ever collects a real slice of that $30 trillion, it has to come out of wages somebody is getting paid today.

Ricardo

33,678 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL CRASH THE S&P 500 Read this carefully before buying stocks! The biggest IPO wave in decades is colliding with one of the most concentrated markets in history. 1. The IPO wave is already here. > SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history in June, raising $75 BILLION at a ~$1.77 TRILLION valuation. > Anthropic is now preparing for a potential Nasdaq IPO, with its valuation reportedly reaching as high as ~$2 TRILLION. > OpenAI was also considered one of the next trillion-dollar IPO candidates, but Sam Altman has now ruled out an IPO in 2026. And that actually makes the setup even more interesting! 2. The S&P 500 is already extremely concentrated. The Magnificent Seven currently represent roughly 34% of the entire S&P 500, with Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Apple, and Tesla carrying an enormous share of the index. Now imagine another massive Anthropic offering pulling tens of billions of dollars into a brand-new AI stock. That money has to come from somewhere. Funds could rotate capital out of today's biggest winners to make room for the next generation of AI giants. Nvidia. Microsoft. Google. Amazon. THE SAME STOCKS CURRENTLY HOLDING UP THE INDEX! SpaceX also showed exactly how extreme this IPO cycle has become: $75 BILLION raised in a single offering. Anthropic could potentially be even bigger. 3. History has seen this setup before. Near the peak of every major bubble, capital became concentrated in a small group of companies investors believed could not lose: > The Roaring Twenties > The Nifty Fifty > Japan's 1980s asset bubble > The Dot-Com Bubble Today, U.S. market concentration is once again near historic extremes. 4. Great companies can still become terrible investments at the wrong valuation. During the Dot-Com collapse, some of the strongest companies on Earth suffered brutal drawdowns: Amazon: ~-95% Microsoft: ~-65% Intel: ~-80%+ Oracle: ~-80%+ Yahoo: ~-97% A great business does not protect investors from extreme valuations. And now private AI companies are approaching trillion-dollar valuations while the industry is still burning enormous amounts of capital. THAT IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF EUPHORIA THAT SHOULD MAKE INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION! I've said this before, and the cycle is still moving in the same direction. Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below. THE NEXT PHASE COULD BE THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE YET!

Qmo

59,017 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen

Google just quit the AI race on purpose, and it is about to make MORE money than everyone still running it. 4 of the most cited AI researchers alive walked out of Google in a single afternoon. Jeff Dean, the man who built the systems Google runs on, gone after 27 years. Sanjay Ghemawat, his longtime partner, gone. Oriol Vinyals, a Gemini co-lead, gone. Quoc Le, a Google Brain co-founder, gone. That same day, Demis Hassabis stepped back from running DeepMind. Hassabis co-founded the lab, won a Nobel Prize for AlphaFold, and had been the face of Google AI for a decade. The stock dropped 5% within hours. Analysts called it a brain drain. Headlines called it the day Google fell behind. But turns out that's completely wrong, because the numbers underneath tell a completely different story: Google is not trying to win the frontier model race anymore. It looked at where the money is and walked toward it. Gemini, Google's flagship model business, generated about $12 billion in annual revenue last quarter. That is the entire payoff from competing head to head with OpenAI and Anthropic. Now look at the other number. By the end of 2027, Google Cloud is projected to do over $73 billion selling AI infrastructure to other companies, plus another $120 billion selling its TPU chips. That is roughly $200 billion of external sales at high margins, against a $12 billion model business. Google understood that the frontier race is the expensive part while selling the shovels is the profitable part. And the customers buying those shovels include Google's own rivals. Over 20% of Google's TPU shipments for 2026 and 2027 are going to Anthropic, one of the two labs supposedly beating Gemini. Google now makes money every time Anthropic trains a model designed to crush Google's OWN product. Cede the frontier, own the layer underneath it, and collect a toll from everyone racing across the top. The researchers leaving is the symptom of a company that already decided models are not where it wins. Jeff Dean said it himself on the way out. He told the New York Times that leaving a public company gives him room to make decisions "not necessarily in the company's purist financial interests." Read that from Google's side: The people who wanted to chase the science left, because Google is now optimizing for the FINANCIAL interest. Gemini 3.5 Pro is running months behind, with staff blaming low morale. DeepMind's comms, legal, and marketing teams are being folded into Google proper. A former manager told the Guardian the era of DeepMind as an independent lab is over. None of that reads as failure once you see the strategy. Yet Wall Street is pricing this as Google losing. The parallel that should worry the frontier labs: If open weight models keep compressing the price of inference, being the best model stops being a business. It becomes like semiconductor fabrication, strategically vital and financially brutal, a race you win and still lose money running. Google is the first giant to admit that. The company that invented the transformer just handed the frontier to OpenAI and Anthropic, and positioned itself to get paid on every model both of them ship. Those labs will be burning billions to stay one benchmark ahead, and Google will be cashing in hundreds of billions from it. The model business is actually just a race where everyone loses. Apple understood that from the get-go and never joined the race, Google understood it now and left it to OpenAI and Anthropic. Who will go bankrupt first?

Ricardo

242,251 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Google just reported $99 billion in profits it never actually received. Alphabet posted net income of $112.1 billion for a single quarter. Earnings per share came in at $9.11 against a Wall Street estimate of $2.87. That is one of the largest profit quarters any company has ever printed. Yet the stock fell about 7% the same day. When people read past the headline and opened the earnings release, they found the reason sitting in one footnote... $99 billion of that profit came from a line called other income. Alphabet describes it as "primarily the result of net unrealized gains on our equity securities." So Google did not sell anything. It marked up shares it already owned and ran the increase through its income statement. That single line added $77.1 billion to net income after tax. It accounted for $6.26 of the $9.11 in earnings per share. Strip it out and adjusted earnings per share were $2.85. Analysts wanted $2.89. The ACTUAL business missed. Now here is what makes this insane: Most of that $99 billion came from two holdings, SpaceX and Anthropic. SpaceX went public on June 12 at roughly $1.77 trillion, up from about $400 billion a year earlier. Alphabet's stake is worth $94.1 billion, and roughly $80 billion of it sits under sale restrictions. Anthropic went from a $350 billion valuation to $965 billion inside the same quarter. Alphabet's private company holdings were worth about $124.3 billion on June 30, and the vast majority of that is Anthropic. Google cannot sell either position right now. Now trace where that valuation came from: Google started putting money into Anthropic in 2023. A $300 million bet has grown into a $13.3 billion position with commitments of up to $30 billion more. Anthropic committed to buying at least five gigawatts of computing capacity from Google Cloud. Google Cloud revenue then grew 82% to about $24.8 billion, the strongest quarter that business has ever had. That growth is part of the story the market uses to price both companies. And when Anthropic's valuation jumped, Google booked the jump as its OWN profit. Google is the investor, the supplier, and the party deciding what the asset is worth. A tax and accounting consultant named Robert Willens flagged this back in April, pointing out that Alphabet is able to influence the value of one of its own assets. And Alphabet's free cash flow for the quarter was negative $5.9 billion. That is the first negative quarter since Google went public in August 2004. Capital spending hit $44.9 billion. Operating cash flow was $39.1 billion. Capex now eats about 37.5% of every dollar of revenue, the highest share in the company's public life. To fund it, Alphabet has taken on roughly $100 billion of debt this year and raised about $85 billion in a June share sale, its first in more than two decades. This is a company that spent years buying its own stock back. What happens next: Alphabet raised 2026 capital spending guidance to between $195 billion and $205 billion, the second raise in three months. The finance chief told analysts 2027 spending will rise significantly. The company also disclosed $811 billion in contracted future spending commitments as of June, up nearly $500 billion from March. Those commitments are signed contracts that get paid in cash. The profit is an estimate of what a private company might be worth on a given day. Estimates move in both directions. If Anthropic or SpaceX gets repriced downward, the same line that produced the biggest quarter in Google's history runs backwards, and this quarter produced no free cash flow to absorb it. Meta, Microsoft and Amazon are all carrying their own private AI stakes into their own earnings reports. Watch how much of their profit they actually collected in cash...

Ricardo

364,597 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Google just launched a direct attack on Nvidia's most valuable asset. Not their chips. Their SOFTWARE. And if this works, Nvidia's $4 trillion empire collapses. Here's what just leaked: Google is building "TorchTPU" - a secret project that makes PyTorch seamlessly run on Google's TPU chips instead of Nvidia GPUs. Why does this matter? PyTorch is the MOST USED AI framework on Earth. Every AI developer uses it. And PyTorch was built around Nvidia's CUDA software. Wall Street analysts call CUDA "Nvidia's strongest defensive wall." It's the reason companies can't easily switch away from Nvidia even when alternatives exist. You don't just buy Nvidia chips. You buy into their entire ecosystem. Switching costs MILLIONS in engineering work. Months of rewrites. Performance drops. So companies stay locked in. Even when Nvidia raises prices. Even when supply runs short. That's not a hardware moat. That's a SOFTWARE prison. And Google just found the escape route. Here's the problem Nvidia created for itself: Google's TPU chips are actually GOOD. Competitive performance. Better availability. Lower cost. But developers won't use them because Google's chips run JAX (Google's internal framework), not PyTorch. That means if you want to use Google TPUs, you have to rewrite your entire codebase. Nobody wants to do that. So Google TPUs sit unused while developers fight over Nvidia chips. Until now. TorchTPU makes PyTorch run natively on Google hardware. No rewrites. No performance loss. No months of engineering. You just... switch. And Google is partnering with META (who built PyTorch) to make it happen. They're even considering OPEN-SOURCING parts of it to speed adoption. Translation: Google is willing to give this away for free just to break Nvidia's lock. The implications are insane: Every company currently paying Nvidia's premium prices suddenly has a way out. Oracle, Microsoft, OpenAI - all locked into Nvidia's ecosystem - can switch to Google. Nvidia's pricing power evaporates overnight. And the timing is perfect: Nvidia is already facing heat. Semiconductor index dropped 3% today. Oracle just lost their biggest investor over AI spending concerns. Companies are realizing AI infrastructure costs are unsustainable. Now Google hands them an alternative. Same performance. Lower cost. Better availability. Jensen Huang knows exactly what this means. CUDA has been Nvidia's untouchable advantage for YEARS. It's why Nvidia trades at 50x earnings while AMD trades at 25x. The software moat justified the premium. But if Google removes that switching cost? Nvidia becomes just another chip company. And chip companies compete on price, not ecosystem lock-in. Here's what happens next: Google needs 12-18 months to make TorchTPU production-ready. If it works, cloud providers will adopt it instantly. They WANT an alternative to Nvidia's monopoly pricing. Amazon already building their own Trainium chips. Microsoft making Maia. They're all trying to escape Nvidia. Google just gave them the software bridge. Nvidia's response options are limited: They can't buy Google. Can't kill PyTorch (Meta owns it). Can't stop open source. Their only play is to keep improving CUDA faster than Google can catch up. But that's a race, not a moat. The market isn't pricing this in yet. Nvidia down 2% today. Google down 2%. Investors think this is just "another competitor." They don't understand this is an attack on the FOUNDATION of Nvidia's valuation. Hardware is replaceable. Software lock-in is what made Nvidia worth $4 trillion. Google is attacking the lock-in. Watch what happens in 2026 when TorchTPU goes live and companies realize they can actually leave Nvidia. The "Nvidia is unstoppable" narrative dies. And a $4 trillion valuation built on software moats gets repriced.

Ricardo

1,617,371 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten