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STOP COMPARING ANTHROPIC TO GOOGLE Let me destroy that comparison in three lines - Google IPO valuation: $23B - Anthropic IPO valuation: $965B That's 42x more expensive before retail even touches it For Anthropic to match Google's return - it would need a $175 trillion market cap The entire...

216,738 次观看 • 1 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Google just reported $99 billion in profits it never actually received. Alphabet posted net income of $112.1 billion for a single quarter. Earnings per share came in at $9.11 against a Wall Street estimate of $2.87. That is one of the largest profit quarters any company has ever printed. Yet the stock fell about 7% the same day. When people read past the headline and opened the earnings release, they found the reason sitting in one footnote... $99 billion of that profit came from a line called other income. Alphabet describes it as "primarily the result of net unrealized gains on our equity securities." So Google did not sell anything. It marked up shares it already owned and ran the increase through its income statement. That single line added $77.1 billion to net income after tax. It accounted for $6.26 of the $9.11 in earnings per share. Strip it out and adjusted earnings per share were $2.85. Analysts wanted $2.89. The ACTUAL business missed. Now here is what makes this insane: Most of that $99 billion came from two holdings, SpaceX and Anthropic. SpaceX went public on June 12 at roughly $1.77 trillion, up from about $400 billion a year earlier. Alphabet's stake is worth $94.1 billion, and roughly $80 billion of it sits under sale restrictions. Anthropic went from a $350 billion valuation to $965 billion inside the same quarter. Alphabet's private company holdings were worth about $124.3 billion on June 30, and the vast majority of that is Anthropic. Google cannot sell either position right now. Now trace where that valuation came from: Google started putting money into Anthropic in 2023. A $300 million bet has grown into a $13.3 billion position with commitments of up to $30 billion more. Anthropic committed to buying at least five gigawatts of computing capacity from Google Cloud. Google Cloud revenue then grew 82% to about $24.8 billion, the strongest quarter that business has ever had. That growth is part of the story the market uses to price both companies. And when Anthropic's valuation jumped, Google booked the jump as its OWN profit. Google is the investor, the supplier, and the party deciding what the asset is worth. A tax and accounting consultant named Robert Willens flagged this back in April, pointing out that Alphabet is able to influence the value of one of its own assets. And Alphabet's free cash flow for the quarter was negative $5.9 billion. That is the first negative quarter since Google went public in August 2004. Capital spending hit $44.9 billion. Operating cash flow was $39.1 billion. Capex now eats about 37.5% of every dollar of revenue, the highest share in the company's public life. To fund it, Alphabet has taken on roughly $100 billion of debt this year and raised about $85 billion in a June share sale, its first in more than two decades. This is a company that spent years buying its own stock back. What happens next: Alphabet raised 2026 capital spending guidance to between $195 billion and $205 billion, the second raise in three months. The finance chief told analysts 2027 spending will rise significantly. The company also disclosed $811 billion in contracted future spending commitments as of June, up nearly $500 billion from March. Those commitments are signed contracts that get paid in cash. The profit is an estimate of what a private company might be worth on a given day. Estimates move in both directions. If Anthropic or SpaceX gets repriced downward, the same line that produced the biggest quarter in Google's history runs backwards, and this quarter produced no free cash flow to absorb it. Meta, Microsoft and Amazon are all carrying their own private AI stakes into their own earnings reports. Watch how much of their profit they actually collected in cash...

Ricardo

355,359 次观看 • 3 天前

Google just launched a direct attack on Nvidia's most valuable asset. Not their chips. Their SOFTWARE. And if this works, Nvidia's $4 trillion empire collapses. Here's what just leaked: Google is building "TorchTPU" - a secret project that makes PyTorch seamlessly run on Google's TPU chips instead of Nvidia GPUs. Why does this matter? PyTorch is the MOST USED AI framework on Earth. Every AI developer uses it. And PyTorch was built around Nvidia's CUDA software. Wall Street analysts call CUDA "Nvidia's strongest defensive wall." It's the reason companies can't easily switch away from Nvidia even when alternatives exist. You don't just buy Nvidia chips. You buy into their entire ecosystem. Switching costs MILLIONS in engineering work. Months of rewrites. Performance drops. So companies stay locked in. Even when Nvidia raises prices. Even when supply runs short. That's not a hardware moat. That's a SOFTWARE prison. And Google just found the escape route. Here's the problem Nvidia created for itself: Google's TPU chips are actually GOOD. Competitive performance. Better availability. Lower cost. But developers won't use them because Google's chips run JAX (Google's internal framework), not PyTorch. That means if you want to use Google TPUs, you have to rewrite your entire codebase. Nobody wants to do that. So Google TPUs sit unused while developers fight over Nvidia chips. Until now. TorchTPU makes PyTorch run natively on Google hardware. No rewrites. No performance loss. No months of engineering. You just... switch. And Google is partnering with META (who built PyTorch) to make it happen. They're even considering OPEN-SOURCING parts of it to speed adoption. Translation: Google is willing to give this away for free just to break Nvidia's lock. The implications are insane: Every company currently paying Nvidia's premium prices suddenly has a way out. Oracle, Microsoft, OpenAI - all locked into Nvidia's ecosystem - can switch to Google. Nvidia's pricing power evaporates overnight. And the timing is perfect: Nvidia is already facing heat. Semiconductor index dropped 3% today. Oracle just lost their biggest investor over AI spending concerns. Companies are realizing AI infrastructure costs are unsustainable. Now Google hands them an alternative. Same performance. Lower cost. Better availability. Jensen Huang knows exactly what this means. CUDA has been Nvidia's untouchable advantage for YEARS. It's why Nvidia trades at 50x earnings while AMD trades at 25x. The software moat justified the premium. But if Google removes that switching cost? Nvidia becomes just another chip company. And chip companies compete on price, not ecosystem lock-in. Here's what happens next: Google needs 12-18 months to make TorchTPU production-ready. If it works, cloud providers will adopt it instantly. They WANT an alternative to Nvidia's monopoly pricing. Amazon already building their own Trainium chips. Microsoft making Maia. They're all trying to escape Nvidia. Google just gave them the software bridge. Nvidia's response options are limited: They can't buy Google. Can't kill PyTorch (Meta owns it). Can't stop open source. Their only play is to keep improving CUDA faster than Google can catch up. But that's a race, not a moat. The market isn't pricing this in yet. Nvidia down 2% today. Google down 2%. Investors think this is just "another competitor." They don't understand this is an attack on the FOUNDATION of Nvidia's valuation. Hardware is replaceable. Software lock-in is what made Nvidia worth $4 trillion. Google is attacking the lock-in. Watch what happens in 2026 when TorchTPU goes live and companies realize they can actually leave Nvidia. The "Nvidia is unstoppable" narrative dies. And a $4 trillion valuation built on software moats gets repriced.

Ricardo

1,616,417 次观看 • 7 个月前

Google just got executed by a Nobel Prize winner, the inventor of modern AI, and Donald Trump. They literally LOST the AI race in the most brutal way possible. Here is what happened: 5 days ago, Trump told Axios that Anthropic was a national security threat and warned that "people get put in prison immediately" for what the company had been doing with its frontier model exports. 4 days ago, Trump met Dario Amodei at the G7 AI Summit and walked out telling reporters Dario was a "nice guy, smart guy" who had "responded very responsibly." 3 days ago, Noam Shazeer, the co-author of "Attention Is All You Need" (the paper that invented the transformer architecture powering EVERY modern AI model on Earth), walked out of Google to join OpenAI. Yesterday, John Jumper, the 2024 Nobel Prize winner who co-created AlphaFold and ran Google DeepMind's protein structure team for nearly a decade, announced he was leaving to join Anthropic. And this is NOT a coincidence or a normal talent shuffle... Demis Hassabis, who shared the Nobel Prize with Jumper just 18 months ago, had to publicly THANK his own co-laureate for defecting to a rival lab. The man who shared the highest scientific honor in the world with you is now going to work for the people trying to put you out of business. This is what the end of a war looks like. The AI race was never going to be decided by chips, capital, or compute. There are only about 50 people on Earth who can actually build a frontier model from scratch. Google invented the field and trained most of them. They had the largest concentration of them anywhere on the planet. But in one week, two of the most important AI researchers alive betrayed them. And the actual reason is what's terrifying here: For nine months, the consensus take has been that Google's compute advantage would eventually win because talent is replaceable and compute is not. This week proved the opposite. Anthropic just secured a Nobel Prize winner whose work on AlphaFold opened the entire field of AI for biology. That is the same field every pharma company on Earth is desperately trying to enter. Anthropic now literally owns the most credentialed scientist in it. Meanwhile OpenAI just secured the actual inventor of the transformer. The man whose paper underpins every product Google has shipped in the last three years, including Gemini itself. Google has the compute but Google does not have the people who know what to do with it anymore. And the crazy part is that five days ago, Anthropic was effectively under siege. The administration was threatening PRISON, and the Mythos export crisis had triggered a federal block. Their largest investor was reportedly working against them while the company was hours from an existential national security designation that would have frozen them out of federal contracts. But four days later, Trump cleared them in public, they secured the most decorated AI researcher of the decade, and the entire frontier AI duopoly locked in with Anthropic in pole position. The fastest reversal of fortune in modern corporate history. "It's a two-horse race at the frontier. Google is effectively out." Wall Street wakes up to this in six months and starts downgrading Alphabet. But the smart money already knows. Anthropic is being whispered at a $2 trillion valuation. OpenAI is approaching $500 billion in the private market. Gemini 3.5 Pro has been delayed with no public timeline. The AI race literally ended this week. What do you think?

Ricardo

90,843 次观看 • 1 个月前

Google is making $62 billion a quarter destroying the websites it NEEDS to survive. This is literally a death spiral that ends with Google killing itself. Let me explain what's going on... Google added AI summaries to the top of every search result in 2024. When you Google something now, the answer sits right there on Google's page. You never have to click anywhere. Google took the information from someone else's website, summarized it, and kept you inside Google's ecosystem. The result: 60% of all Google searches now end without a single click to any website. Small publishers lost 60% of their traffic in one year. Medium publishers lost 47%. Even the biggest names in media, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Business Insider, all saw traffic fall between 22% and 55%. The Axios CEO called it "a referral extinction event for the ad-supported web." Google's response to all of this was to tell publishers they can "opt out" of having their content summarized. But opting out also REMOVES your description from normal search results. So the choice Google gives you is let us steal your content for free, or become invisible on the internet. That's extortion. The Washington Post laid off another round of journalists this year because of it. Stereogum, one of the most respected music publications on the internet, had to BEG readers for donations. Business Insider cut 21% of its staff. Dozens of smaller publishers have shut down entirely. The people who actually CREATE the information Google summarizes are going bankrupt while Google posts record revenue. But here's where this gets interesting and where everyone stops thinking: Google's AI summaries are only as good as the content they summarize. If the publishers who write the original articles, run the original investigations, and create the original data go out of business, there is nothing left for Google to summarize. The AI starts recycling old information, the answers get stale, the quality drops, and users start noticing that Google's summaries are increasingly wrong, outdated, or useless. Google is essentially strip-mining the internet for short-term revenue. They are extracting all the value from content creators without paying for it, driving those creators out of business, and then wondering why the quality of their own product is declining. This is exactly what Napster did to the music industry in the early 2000s: Made content free, creators went broke, and quality collapsed. It took a decade to rebuild. Google is doing the same thing to the entire internet at 100x the scale. Rolling Stone, Variety, Deadline, The Hollywood Reporter, and Billboard are now suing Google for antitrust violations. Chegg, the education platform, lost 49% of its traffic and is suing too. The UK's competition authority just ordered Google to let publishers opt out without being punished. The DOJ already ruled Google is an illegal monopoly. And Google's defense in court is genuinely unbelievable. They argue that publishers CHOOSE to let Google index their content and can leave anytime they want. That's like saying you choose to pay protection money to the mob because technically you could close your business and move to another city. Google controls 90% of search. Leaving Google means leaving the internet. Meanwhile Google is investing billions in custom AI chips to make these summaries cheaper at scale. Every quarter the problem gets worse. The internet as we've known it for 25 years ran on a simple deal: Publishers make content. Google sends traffic. Advertisers pay for the traffic. Everyone wins. But Google just BROKE that deal and kept all the money.

Ricardo

250,784 次观看 • 2 个月前