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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 STRATEGIC RETALIATION: WHY IRAN IS STRIKING BACK While Western policymakers celebrate the death of the previous Supreme Leader, they ignore the reality that the new leadership is even more hardline. As noted by Glenn Diesen, Iran’s decision to strike U.S. bases and regional allies is a calculated...

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Mario Nawfal

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38,144 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE U.S. IS LEAVING GULF STATES EXPOSED Norwegian political scientist Glenn Diesen says Iran's retaliation playbook is pretty predictable. And the U.S. is not putting its regional allies in an optimal position. "The Gulf states are quite important in the U.S. financial system. So overall it doesn't really make much sense.” Glenn Diesen
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE U.S. IS LEAVING GULF STATES EXPOSED Norwegian political scientist Glenn Diesen says Iran's retaliation playbook is pretty predictable. And the U.S. is not putting its regional allies in an optimal position. "The Gulf states are quite important in the U.S. financial system. So overall it doesn't really make much sense.” Glenn Diesen

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. releasing oil strategic reserves may look like it’s strategy, but it could really just be panic. Professor Glenn Diesen explains why Iran has little reason to fold. "[Iran has] no other choice, what is the alternative here? I think the Iranians will just absorb the pain, and I assume that the U.S. will blink first." When survival is the only option, attrition favors the side with nothing left to lose. Glenn Diesen
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. releasing oil strategic reserves may look like it’s strategy, but it could really just be panic. Professor Glenn Diesen explains why Iran has little reason to fold. "[Iran has] no other choice, what is the alternative here? I think the Iranians will just absorb the pain, and I assume that the U.S. will blink first." When survival is the only option, attrition favors the side with nothing left to lose. Glenn Diesen

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🇮🇱🇺🇸 ISRAEL ESSENTIALLY HAS VETO OVER WHEN U.S. ENDS WAR Norwegian political scientist Glenn Diesen says Israel had role in U.S. getting into war with Iran, and they will have role in when it gets out. But only to a certain extent. “If the core national security of the United States is under threat, it is possible that the U.S. would make a decision and just tell the Israelis that they have to adjust.” Glenn Diesen
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🇮🇱🇺🇸 ISRAEL ESSENTIALLY HAS VETO OVER WHEN U.S. ENDS WAR Norwegian political scientist Glenn Diesen says Israel had role in U.S. getting into war with Iran, and they will have role in when it gets out. But only to a certain extent. “If the core national security of the United States is under threat, it is possible that the U.S. would make a decision and just tell the Israelis that they have to adjust.” Glenn Diesen

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 A $300 billion reconstruction fund, sanctions relief, and a nuclear deal that hands Iran the win may be required for a peace deal. Glenn Diesen acknowledges that Iran has won the war, but the aggressiveness of their demands makes him pessimistic about the prospect of a straightforward deal landing in the foreseeable future. "My only source of optimism is that a war cannot be won by the U.S. anymore." Glenn Diesen
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 A $300 billion reconstruction fund, sanctions relief, and a nuclear deal that hands Iran the win may be required for a peace deal. Glenn Diesen acknowledges that Iran has won the war, but the aggressiveness of their demands makes him pessimistic about the prospect of a straightforward deal landing in the foreseeable future. "My only source of optimism is that a war cannot be won by the U.S. anymore." Glenn Diesen

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🚨🇮🇱🇮🇷 Israel hit Beirut on the day a deal with Iran is meant to be signed. Glenn Diesen explains why Iran may be forced to include Lebanon in its terms of peace. "The Iranians might have to demand it. They are worried about a common strategy by the U.S. That is to take something off the intense fighting and put it on the slow burner. Israelis can just move in more incrementally." Glenn Diesen
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🚨🇮🇱🇮🇷 Israel hit Beirut on the day a deal with Iran is meant to be signed. Glenn Diesen explains why Iran may be forced to include Lebanon in its terms of peace. "The Iranians might have to demand it. They are worried about a common strategy by the U.S. That is to take something off the intense fighting and put it on the slow burner. Israelis can just move in more incrementally." Glenn Diesen

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran may see the U.S. as slowly rewriting the rules in the Strait of Hormuz, one step at a time. Glenn Diesen argues that this is the logic behind “salami tactics”: chip away at a deal gradually, then make any serious pushback look like an overreaction. “Everything that the opponent will do to resist or oppose it will look like an overreaction. This is by design.” He says Iran may be acting now to stop that process before a new U.S.-controlled status quo takes hold. Glenn Diesen
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran may see the U.S. as slowly rewriting the rules in the Strait of Hormuz, one step at a time. Glenn Diesen argues that this is the logic behind “salami tactics”: chip away at a deal gradually, then make any serious pushback look like an overreaction. “Everything that the opponent will do to resist or oppose it will look like an overreaction. This is by design.” He says Iran may be acting now to stop that process before a new U.S.-controlled status quo takes hold. Glenn Diesen

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Burning the Middle East to the ground might actually be on the table. Analyst Glenn Diesen breaks down the cold logic: if the U.S. is losing the region anyway, wrecking Iran starves China of energy and hands Washington control of the Strait of Hormuz. "If the U.S. thinks it's not going to be able to stay in the Middle East anyways, why not burn the whole thing to the ground?" Some people are already thinking exactly that. Glenn Diesen
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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Burning the Middle East to the ground might actually be on the table. Analyst Glenn Diesen breaks down the cold logic: if the U.S. is losing the region anyway, wrecking Iran starves China of energy and hands Washington control of the Strait of Hormuz. "If the U.S. thinks it's not going to be able to stay in the Middle East anyways, why not burn the whole thing to the ground?" Some people are already thinking exactly that. Glenn Diesen

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The Strait of Hormuz has turned into a high-stakes testing ground as reports surface of Iranian missiles striking a U.S. Navy warship. Glenn Diesel suggests that Iran is forced to uphold its red lines to prevent Europe from feeling emboldened to join the American escort operations. "It made sense to uphold the red line by striking." Glenn Diesen
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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The Strait of Hormuz has turned into a high-stakes testing ground as reports surface of Iranian missiles striking a U.S. Navy warship. Glenn Diesel suggests that Iran is forced to uphold its red lines to prevent Europe from feeling emboldened to join the American escort operations. "It made sense to uphold the red line by striking." Glenn Diesen

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 There is no version of this story where the U.S. comes out looking in control. Glenn Diesen laid out the dilemma Iran faces in signing a deal with the U.S. when peace in Lebanon isn't secured. "If Iran says we won't get baited into a conflict that derails peace. But if they do that, for Israel it is open season on Lebanon." Glenn Diesen
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 There is no version of this story where the U.S. comes out looking in control. Glenn Diesen laid out the dilemma Iran faces in signing a deal with the U.S. when peace in Lebanon isn't secured. "If Iran says we won't get baited into a conflict that derails peace. But if they do that, for Israel it is open season on Lebanon." Glenn Diesen

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may be trapped between walking away from the Middle East looking defeated and staying in a conflict the U.S. cannot control. Glenn Diesen argues that Washington is getting pulled deeper into the fallout from the Iran war, from the Strait of Hormuz to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and tensions involving Turkey and Israel. “I think this is going to be the worst strategic defeat in U.S. history. There’s not many comparisons for how horrible this is going to be for the U.S. and its influence in the Middle East.” The deeper America gets pulled in, the harder it becomes to leave without paying a political price. Glenn Diesen
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may be trapped between walking away from the Middle East looking defeated and staying in a conflict the U.S. cannot control. Glenn Diesen argues that Washington is getting pulled deeper into the fallout from the Iran war, from the Strait of Hormuz to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and tensions involving Turkey and Israel. “I think this is going to be the worst strategic defeat in U.S. history. There’s not many comparisons for how horrible this is going to be for the U.S. and its influence in the Middle East.” The deeper America gets pulled in, the harder it becomes to leave without paying a political price. Glenn Diesen

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🇮🇷 Bombing Iran's energy grid will start a different war, instead of ending the current one. Analyst Glenn Diesen breaks down why the escalation math is catastrophic for everyone in the region. "Once you burn down the entire energy infrastructure of the Gulf states, there's no coming back from this." The U.S. has always controlled the escalation ladder. Iran may be about to take it from them. Glenn Diesen
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🇮🇷 Bombing Iran's energy grid will start a different war, instead of ending the current one. Analyst Glenn Diesen breaks down why the escalation math is catastrophic for everyone in the region. "Once you burn down the entire energy infrastructure of the Gulf states, there's no coming back from this." The U.S. has always controlled the escalation ladder. Iran may be about to take it from them. Glenn Diesen

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🚨 HUGE U.S.–ISRAELI STRIKES ROCK TEHRAN Coordinated military strikes by U.S. and Israeli forces have pummeled targets across Tehran and other Iranian cities, part of the ongoing joint offensive aimed at degrading Iran’s military and strategic capabilities. Explosions and plumes of smoke have been reported over Iran’s capital as the conflict intensifies. These strikes come days after the initial wave of coordinated attacks that included precision bombing of strategic sites and reportedly the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Iran has launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks at U.S. bases and regional allies, and the broader Middle East war is rapidly expanding. The scale of these strikes marks one of the most significant military escalations in the region in decades. Stand by.
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🚨 HUGE U.S.–ISRAELI STRIKES ROCK TEHRAN Coordinated military strikes by U.S. and Israeli forces have pummeled targets across Tehran and other Iranian cities, part of the ongoing joint offensive aimed at degrading Iran’s military and strategic capabilities. Explosions and plumes of smoke have been reported over Iran’s capital as the conflict intensifies. These strikes come days after the initial wave of coordinated attacks that included precision bombing of strategic sites and reportedly the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Iran has launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks at U.S. bases and regional allies, and the broader Middle East war is rapidly expanding. The scale of these strikes marks one of the most significant military escalations in the region in decades. Stand by.

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 PROXY WARS & PUPPET MASTERS: THE IRANIAN FRONT As high-level trade talks between the U.S. and China loom, the world watches to see if these two superpowers will decide the fate of Iran. Glenn Diesen explains that in a world of nuclear deterrence, smaller nations are increasingly being used as pawns in dangerous proxy wars. Despite the rhetoric regarding sleeper cells and "irrational actors," the strategic moves on the ground suggest a much more calculated and dangerous game. When the global "elephants" fight, it is the smaller nations that get trampled in the chaos. Glenn Diesen
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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 PROXY WARS & PUPPET MASTERS: THE IRANIAN FRONT As high-level trade talks between the U.S. and China loom, the world watches to see if these two superpowers will decide the fate of Iran. Glenn Diesen explains that in a world of nuclear deterrence, smaller nations are increasingly being used as pawns in dangerous proxy wars. Despite the rhetoric regarding sleeper cells and "irrational actors," the strategic moves on the ground suggest a much more calculated and dangerous game. When the global "elephants" fight, it is the smaller nations that get trampled in the chaos. Glenn Diesen

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 THE FRAGILE SHIELD: ARE U.S. ALLIES BECOMING DISPOSABLE? A crisis of trust is brewing among U.S. partners. As air defenses are stripped from frontline states to protect Israel, allies are beginning to question their "disposable" status. The U.S. presence in the Gulf and East Asia is supposed to provide security, but it is increasingly making these nations targets. When air defenses are moved from South Korea to the Middle East, it forces a massive rethink of global alliances and the reliability of American protection. Are U.S. bases a security guarantee or a liability? Glenn Diesen argues that the struggle for "hearts and minds" is being lost as priorities shift away from regional partners. Glenn Diesen
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 THE FRAGILE SHIELD: ARE U.S. ALLIES BECOMING DISPOSABLE? A crisis of trust is brewing among U.S. partners. As air defenses are stripped from frontline states to protect Israel, allies are beginning to question their "disposable" status. The U.S. presence in the Gulf and East Asia is supposed to provide security, but it is increasingly making these nations targets. When air defenses are moved from South Korea to the Middle East, it forces a massive rethink of global alliances and the reliability of American protection. Are U.S. bases a security guarantee or a liability? Glenn Diesen argues that the struggle for "hearts and minds" is being lost as priorities shift away from regional partners. Glenn Diesen

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 STRATEGIC PATIENCE: WHY THE U.S. IS UNDERESTIMATING IRAN The U.S. may be celebrating tactical strikes, but they are facing an adversary that has been preparing for this exact war for decades. Iran has mastered the art of "strategic patience," holding back its most advanced missiles and drones while observing the American footprint in the region. Matthew Hoh highlights how the U.S. lacks a clear political objective, while Iran is executing a long-term plan to ensure this is the last time regime change is ever mentioned. Underestimating a prepared enemy is the fastest way to lose a war you thought was already won. Matthew Hoh
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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 STRATEGIC PATIENCE: WHY THE U.S. IS UNDERESTIMATING IRAN The U.S. may be celebrating tactical strikes, but they are facing an adversary that has been preparing for this exact war for decades. Iran has mastered the art of "strategic patience," holding back its most advanced missiles and drones while observing the American footprint in the region. Matthew Hoh highlights how the U.S. lacks a clear political objective, while Iran is executing a long-term plan to ensure this is the last time regime change is ever mentioned. Underestimating a prepared enemy is the fastest way to lose a war you thought was already won. Matthew Hoh

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 🇮🇷 LOSING HEARTS AND MINDS: THE EROSION OF TRUST The U.S. and Israel are facing a massive reputational crisis as the war against Iran escalates without a clear off-ramp. Professor Diesen points out that you cannot win over a population while simultaneously threatening that their nation "will never be able to rebuild." By punishing the civilian population to pressure the government, the West is ensuring decades of hatred and resentment. Washington has run out of good options, and the moral high ground has been completely lost. Glenn Diesen
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 🇮🇷 LOSING HEARTS AND MINDS: THE EROSION OF TRUST The U.S. and Israel are facing a massive reputational crisis as the war against Iran escalates without a clear off-ramp. Professor Diesen points out that you cannot win over a population while simultaneously threatening that their nation "will never be able to rebuild." By punishing the civilian population to pressure the government, the West is ensuring decades of hatred and resentment. Washington has run out of good options, and the moral high ground has been completely lost. Glenn Diesen

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE ESCALATION TRAP: WHY THE U.S. IS RUNNING OUT OF MOVES We have entered a dangerous escalation cycle with no clear exit strategy. Trump’s "victory" speech is falling flat because the variables are no longer under American control. As Glenn Diesen explains, the U.S. has already hit its primary military targets, yet Iran continues to soldier through. This lack of escalation dominance means the focus is shifting toward inflicting economic pain on civilians, a desperate move that rarely leads to the intended capitulation. Is the U.S. losing its grip on the variables of war? The situation suggests we are entering uncharted territory. Glenn Diesen
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE ESCALATION TRAP: WHY THE U.S. IS RUNNING OUT OF MOVES We have entered a dangerous escalation cycle with no clear exit strategy. Trump’s "victory" speech is falling flat because the variables are no longer under American control. As Glenn Diesen explains, the U.S. has already hit its primary military targets, yet Iran continues to soldier through. This lack of escalation dominance means the focus is shifting toward inflicting economic pain on civilians, a desperate move that rarely leads to the intended capitulation. Is the U.S. losing its grip on the variables of war? The situation suggests we are entering uncharted territory. Glenn Diesen

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE STRATEGIC BLUNDER: REPLACING KHOMEINI In a recent analysis, Kwiatkowski examines why the killing of Khomeini may have been a massive strategic mistake. The move has emboldened a more "hardline" successor and created a "rally around the flag" effect in Tehran. While the U.S. struggles with depleted stockpiles, Iran is digging in for a long-term war of attrition.
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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE STRATEGIC BLUNDER: REPLACING KHOMEINI In a recent analysis, Kwiatkowski examines why the killing of Khomeini may have been a massive strategic mistake. The move has emboldened a more "hardline" successor and created a "rally around the flag" effect in Tehran. While the U.S. struggles with depleted stockpiles, Iran is digging in for a long-term war of attrition.

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At least 16 U.S. military bases across the Gulf were heavily hit by Iranian missiles and drones, with servicemembers reportedly injured, killed, and lives lost across the region. As this unfolds, the Trump administration is reportedly pressuring private satellite companies to restrict images of the damaged bases from circulating publicly. The image of unquestioned American military dominance in the region has been badly shaken. If the U.S. cannot fully protect its own bases, what does that mean for allies who host American military infrastructure on their soil? It raises a further question: how many Middle Eastern and allied nations will continue to allow U.S. bases in their countries if those installations themselves are vulnerable? Brandon Weichert breaks down this major strategic miscalculation, how the war is straining the U.S. military, and if it is possibily strengthening Iran’s position as a regional power.
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At least 16 U.S. military bases across the Gulf were heavily hit by Iranian missiles and drones, with servicemembers reportedly injured, killed, and lives lost across the region. As this unfolds, the Trump administration is reportedly pressuring private satellite companies to restrict images of the damaged bases from circulating publicly. The image of unquestioned American military dominance in the region has been badly shaken. If the U.S. cannot fully protect its own bases, what does that mean for allies who host American military infrastructure on their soil? It raises a further question: how many Middle Eastern and allied nations will continue to allow U.S. bases in their countries if those installations themselves are vulnerable? Brandon Weichert breaks down this major strategic miscalculation, how the war is straining the U.S. military, and if it is possibily strengthening Iran’s position as a regional power.

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🚨🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Want a cheaper toll through the Strait of Hormuz? Iran's price is cutting your ties with Washington. Geopolitical analyst Glenn Diesen says the toll booth is now permanent and beyond negotiation, with rates set to vary by country based on participation in sanctions and the hosting of U.S. bases. The less aligned with Washington a country is, the cheaper its passage. He sees flexibility on the nuclear file but none on the strait, which Tehran treats as core to its survival. The only real card the U.S. holds is sanctions relief, and Glenn doubts it will ever be offered. Glenn Diesen
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🚨🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Want a cheaper toll through the Strait of Hormuz? Iran's price is cutting your ties with Washington. Geopolitical analyst Glenn Diesen says the toll booth is now permanent and beyond negotiation, with rates set to vary by country based on participation in sanctions and the hosting of U.S. bases. The less aligned with Washington a country is, the cheaper its passage. He sees flexibility on the nuclear file but none on the strait, which Tehran treats as core to its survival. The only real card the U.S. holds is sanctions relief, and Glenn doubts it will ever be offered. Glenn Diesen

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