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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Striking a country dramatically increases their determination to build a nuclear weapon as a deterrent, and every previous president understood that paradox. Trita Parsi argues the calculus has now shifted toward those inside Iran who want the bomb. "If you were to bomb them, you would maximize the... show more

Mario Nawfal

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38,181 views • 2 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 🇮🇷 WAR AS SANCTIONS RELIEF Expert writer Trita Parsi points out a paradox: the war has actually provided Iran with de facto sanctions relief. Iran is exporting more oil at nearly triple the pre-war price due to the conflict, according to Parsi. Trita argues that because of this, Iran will view significant, formal sanctions relief as a non-negotiable term for peace. Trita Parsi

🚨 🇮🇷 WAR AS SANCTIONS RELIEF Expert writer Trita Parsi points out a paradox: the war has actually provided Iran with de facto sanctions relief. Iran is exporting more oil at nearly triple the pre-war price due to the conflict, according to Parsi. Trita argues that because of this, Iran will view significant, formal sanctions relief as a non-negotiable term for peace. Trita Parsi

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Dr. Trita Parsi (Trita Parsi) | Middle East Expert | Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft: The debate inside Iran has shifted dramatically in favor of weaponization - becoming a problem for any deal. The new Supreme Leader has neither reinstated nor rejected the fatwa against nuclear weapons. Previously, majority of Iran's security establishment did not consider nuclear as a strategic asset. That has now dramatically changed. Depending on negotiations, Iran may move toward establishing deterrence short of a nuclear weapon. Or toward nuclear weapons becoming a conceivable & even plausible option.

Dr. Trita Parsi (Trita Parsi) | Middle East Expert | Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft: The debate inside Iran has shifted dramatically in favor of weaponization - becoming a problem for any deal. The new Supreme Leader has neither reinstated nor rejected the fatwa against nuclear weapons. Previously, majority of Iran's security establishment did not consider nuclear as a strategic asset. That has now dramatically changed. Depending on negotiations, Iran may move toward establishing deterrence short of a nuclear weapon. Or toward nuclear weapons becoming a conceivable & even plausible option.

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🚨 🇮🇷 THE OIL PRICE INCENTIVE Political analyst Trita Parsi highlights that Trump uses "diplomacy" talk primarily to manipulate and lower global oil prices. Iran won't come to the table until they see a sincere opening for compromise, according to Parsi. Trita Parsi notes that if Trump passes the "Rubicon" of escalation, his incentive for a peace deal will vanish. Trita Parsi

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TRITA PARSI: There was a segment of the Iranian people that seemed to welcome this conflict because they were just so sick and tired of this theocracy. But those sentiments seem to have shifted very fast as it's become clear to them that this is a war on the country, not a war on the regime. Trita Parsi

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🚨🇮🇷 THE IRGC’S STRENGTHENED GRIP Co-founder of the Quincy Institute Trita Parsi explains that Trump’s "regime change" efforts have actually empowered the IRGC. Parsi observes that Israeli strikes have eliminated moderates, replacing them with hawkish figures within the Iranian system. Trita worries that Iran may now overplay its hand by seeking a total military victory that isn't possible. Trita Parsi

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has dropped every demand except the nuclear weapons one, and that may be the key to avoiding war. Trita Parsi broke down why this shift in tone changes everything. "That may prove to be absolutely crucial, because that was the original red line that he had a year and a half ago. And had he stuck with that red line and not shifted to the Israeli red line of no enrichment, then there wouldn't have been a war back in the summer in the first place." Trita Parsi

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has dropped every demand except the nuclear weapons one, and that may be the key to avoiding war. Trita Parsi broke down why this shift in tone changes everything. "That may prove to be absolutely crucial, because that was the original red line that he had a year and a half ago. And had he stuck with that red line and not shifted to the Israeli red line of no enrichment, then there wouldn't have been a war back in the summer in the first place." Trita Parsi

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran quietly redrew the map of the Strait of Hormuz, stretching its claimed supervision zone to include Fujairah, right as nuclear talks heat up. Trita Parsi argued that's a major pressure tactic. "Either that mechanism or the Iranians are going to expand their definition of what actually constitutes the Strait of Hormuz." Chips are worthless unless you cash them in, and moves like this make cashing them in nearly impossible. Trita Parsi

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran quietly redrew the map of the Strait of Hormuz, stretching its claimed supervision zone to include Fujairah, right as nuclear talks heat up. Trita Parsi argued that's a major pressure tactic. "Either that mechanism or the Iranians are going to expand their definition of what actually constitutes the Strait of Hormuz." Chips are worthless unless you cash them in, and moves like this make cashing them in nearly impossible. Trita Parsi

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🚨🇮🇷 IRAN CAN STILL HIT BACK HARD Trita Parsi says despite heavy losses, Iran still has a dangerous stockpile of missiles and launchers. He says Tehran is built to absorb the damage and keep fighting because for them, this war is existential. Trita Parsi

🚨🇮🇷 IRAN CAN STILL HIT BACK HARD Trita Parsi says despite heavy losses, Iran still has a dangerous stockpile of missiles and launchers. He says Tehran is built to absorb the damage and keep fighting because for them, this war is existential. Trita Parsi

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