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Super hydrophobic coatings rule. SOFT99 Glaco Mirror Coat Zero, 40 ml

20,846 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Victor Haghani helped build LTCM & watched it collapse — with winning trades still on the books. The lesson was never what to buy. It was how much. Victor Haghani (Co-founder @ LTCM | Founder @ Elm Wealth | Author of The Missing Billionaires) "It wasn't on the selection of the trades. It was on the sizing." We cover: - The two decisions every investor makes: what to own and how much, and why everyone fixates on the harder one - The biased-coin game that bankrupted Wall Street PMs and finance grads: a 60/40 edge handed to them, and they still blew up - Why the cost of risk is a fee you pay yourself, plus the napkin rule to price it (15% vol = 2.25% a year) - The Elon problem: 50% vol on your net worth means a ~90% chance of little left in 10 years, before anyone's even bearish - "The right answer to the wrong question," and why chasing billionaire money wrecks the plan - The crystal-ball game: hand someone tomorrow's WSJ front page and watch 1 in 6 still go bust - Claude, GPT, Gemini and Grok play the same game, and the two AIs that actually lost money - His 92-year-old mother, who day-trades every day and won't hear a word of it Highlights: 00:00 Right & ruined — the LTCM paradox 01:40 The two decisions: what to invest in vs. how much 02:50 The 60/40 coin & why max-EV bankrupts you 04:00 The experiment: PMs & PhDs sizing it all wrong 07:00 Kelly in plain English — a constant 10–20% 08:20 Why sizing isn't zero-sum, but beating the market is 10:30 Why even pros don't optimize sizing 12:50 The cost of risk is a fee — paid to yourself 15:20 Pricing your own risk: variance as the charge 16:30 Concentrated stock: 30% vol = a 9% toll 20:50 Elon, 50% vol & the log-normal trap 22:45 The right answer to the wrong question 23:35 The real objective: smooth lifetime spending & giving 27:35 The crystal-ball / WSJ front-page game 33:25 Claude, GPT, Gemini & Grok step up to trade 37:40 Claude's 66% hit rate — & the two AIs that lost money 40:35 Can anyone actually beat the market? 50:25 How much risk a young person should take 58:00 Estimating your human capital 1:02:40 The mom who won't stop day-trading 1:07:30 The one rule: if you don't save, nothing else matters

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625,579 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

How to build a beloved AI product, with Granola CEO Chris Pedregal Granola is the rare AI startup that slipped into a very crowded niche — meeting notes — and still managed to become the product founders (and VCs!) rave about. Plenty of product lessons in this episode. 00:00 - Introduction: The Granola Story 01:41 - Building a "Life-Changing" Product 04:31 - The "Second Brain" Vision 06:28 - Augmentation Philosophy (Engelbart), Tools That Shape Us 09:02 - Late to a Crowded Market: Why it Worked 13:43 - Two Product Founders, Zero ML PhDs 16:01 - London vs. SF: Building Outside the Valley 19:51 - One Year in Stealth: Learning Before Launch 22:40 - "Building For Us" & Finding First Users 25:41 - Key Design Choices: No Meeting Bot, No Stored Audio 29:24 - Simplicity is Hard: Cutting 50% of Features 32:54 - Intuition vs. Data in Making Product Decisions 36:25 - Continuous User Conversations: 4-6 Calls/Week 38:06 - Prioritizing the Future: Build for Tomorrow's Workflows 40:17 - Tech Stack Tour: Model Routing & Evals 42:29 - Context Windows, Costs & Inference Economics 45:03 - Audio Stack: Transcription, Noise Cancellation & Diarization Limits 48:27 - Guardrails & Citations: Building Trust in AI 50:00 - Growth Loops Without Virality Hacks 54:54 - Enterprise Compliance, Data Footprint & Liability Risk 57:07 - Retention & Habit Formation: The "500 Millisecond Window" 58:43 - Competing with OpenAI and Legacy Suites 1:01:27 - The Future: Deep Research Across Meetings & Roadmap 1:04:41 - Granola as Career Coach?

Matt Turck

32,002 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

This podcast is a special one. Based Show presents fiddy.dime - priv/acc 🦡 [founder of Paradigm Paradex ] We unpack the journey of building The Defi Super App The vision, the mission, the relentlessness, the execution. The man is a warrior ! Timestamps: 0:00 : Raw backstory & origin of the persona 2:19 : Attraction to fringe culture & diverse upbringing 4:24 : Gaming as first love 4:57 : Parents vs passion (traditional Indian household 7:02 : Music, DJing & creative experimentation 8:46 : Reality check – passion vs financial reality in India 9:45 : Entrepreneurial family background 11:04 : Falling in love with finance (first MBA finance class) 12:31 : Curiosity for misunderstood & fringe systems 14:03 : First job in finance (quant → trading desk) 17:16 : Bitcoin whitepaper moment 20:05 : Machine learning & exposure to new models 22:20 : Discovering broken systems in commodities trading 26:33 : Trading floor feels like a LAN party 28:43 : First automation breakthrough (15 min → seconds) 30:45 : “You should build a company” realization 31:18 : Immigrant founder constraint (visa risk) 33:22 : Forced delay becomes strategic advantage 34:40 : Biggest milestone – overcoming immigration 37:43 : Founder psychology (war with your own mind) 39:03 : Paradigm growth & institutional dominance 41:01 : Why Paradex exists (dependencies kill companies) 42:54 : FTX collapse & darkest period 46:38 : Choosing the fight instead of quitting 51:30 : Transition from survival → long-term vision 55:38 : DeFi super center framework (financial mega-cities analogy) 57:26 : Privacy as non-negotiable 59:54 : PRISM revealed (alpha moment) 1:02:50 : Toxic vs non-toxic flow explained 1:06:22 : Why ZK > L1 > Optimistic rollups 1:09:54 : Zero fees ≠ zero revenue 1:12:50 : Revenue increased after zero fees 1:16:09 : Real competition isn’t other DEXs (TradFi is the enemy) 1:20:05 : Infrastructure vs consumer apps (liquidity infrastructure thesis) 1:21:00 : “Trade anything, with anyone, settle instantly” A vision 1:22:48 : Why this vision is brutally hard & requires suffering 1:25:11 : Team size reveal 1:27:36 : Flat org structure (no managers, 2 meetings/week) 1:29:11 : Brutal hiring funnel (530 → 6 → 3 hires) 1:32:03 : Determination > pedigree (why degrees don’t matter) 1:34:32 : Family influence & father’s story 1:37:08 : Meritocracy, empathy & values 1:38:48 : Becoming a father & legacy mindset 1:40:46 : TGE delay, farming accusations & retention-first logic 1:43:51 : Tokenomics, alignment & governance pillars 1:47:54 : Biggest fear – not reaching full potential 1:49:30 : Closing remarks & outro

Sahib

40,750 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

Ran into a Chinese ML researcher at a rooftop bar in Hudson Yards last Saturday. DeepMind badge half-tucked in his pocket. Two glasses of baijiu in. Tie already loose. He glanced at my laptop. “Polymarket?” “Yeah.” “Running it on Opus 4.7?” I nodded. He pulled up a stool without asking. Copytrade “I ran internal evals on 4.7 last month. Best reasoning model we’ve seen on adversarial time-series. It finds signal faster than our quants. Legal shuts it down every time before it touches real money.” I turned my screen. 86M trades. Public dataset. Almost no one uses it. 14,000 wallets in → 9 out. Filter: 40–200 trades 74%+ winrate 100K. 5 minutes. He leaned closer. “How do you enter?” “Each wallet has a domain. Crypto, politics, sports. I only copy inside its zone.” He smiled. “Domain conditioning. We published that. No one ships it retail.” “I did.” 86M trades. Public dataset 4 Python scripts. Claude wrote most of it over a weekend. Execution: — 21 min delay — bet size = signal — $900 baseline, $1,600 = ~1.8σ → size up Exit: — mirror source — take ~74% of max — cut if <3% after 18h 31 days: Sharpe 2.67 453 trades 81.7% WR $600 → +$41,985 He set his glass down. “4.7 on this data is a weapon. Most people write essays with it. You built a printer.” Pause. “Rerun your filter every 7 days. Wallet sets rotate.” He stood up. “If anyone asks, we never spoke.” “Of course.” He smiled. “Good answer.”

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23,073 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

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683,492 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад