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Taking loads in Hell’s Kitchen/NYC this Sunday, 2/22, starting at 4pm! Come breed this silky cumdump pussy 😈💦 Best Cumdumps - Helping 🕳's get 🍆💦 #bestcumdumps CUMDUMP CLUB™ #cumdumpclub

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Nick Gray (Nick Gray) is a master of building relationships and creating memorable experiences. From hosting museum tours to writing "The Two Hour Cocktail Party," Nick has cracked the code on becoming a "friend billionaire." You'll also get to hear how I met him in NYC for the first time I chatted with Nick about his journey from social outsider to connection mastermind. This episode is packed with actionable advice for anyone looking to expand their social circle and create more meaningful relationships. . HIGHLIGHTS: 1. Hosting is a superpower: "I found that I could change the trajectory of my life by becoming a host. The best people learn how to make hosting a habit." 2. The "NICK" method for great parties: N - Name tags I - Intros/icebreakers C - Cocktails/mocktails only K - Kick them out at the end 3. Build a "Friendship Funnel": Use social media, newsletters, and events to cultivate relationships strategically. 4. Add value first: When connecting with busy or influential people, always think about what you can offer them. 5. Embrace adventure: Seek out new experiences to make life feel richer and longer. TOPICS: 00:00 - Preview 00:50 - Mateína Yerba Mate 2:56 - How Andrew First Met Nick 5:08 - Nick’s Newsletter 6:01 - Starting a Software Company in India to Living in NYC 9:30 - Museum Hack 11:33 - Benefits of Having A Newsletter 14:25 - The 2-Hour Cocktail Party & Active Hosting 19:25 - N.I.C.K. Method 23:03 - Prioritizing Adventure Over Money 24:34 - Growing Social Circles Through Hosting 28:33 - Nick’s Friendship Funnel 37:55 - Tips for Hosting 41:00 - Rejection With Invites 43:23 - Nick’s Favorite Hosts 44:28 - Adding Value to People You Meet 54:34 - Balancing Adventure With Routine 59:11 - Finding Interesting Experiences 1:03:01 - Nick’s Views on Travel 1:05:22 - Nick’s Blind Date in Tokyo 1:09:10 - Nick’s Investments 1:11:02 - How Nick Enjoys His Money 1:18:15 - Nick’s Daily Routine 1:22:43 - Nick’s Productivity System

Andrew Wilkinson

62,949 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

"You're a scumbag... how do you even look yourself in the mirror?" She said after we presented her with an offer above list price This is the story of how we closed the biggest deal in Frasier Cole history after one person and one conversation fueled a legendary revenge deal: November 15th, 2021, 1,323 days ago, 6 months into us starting Frasier Cole, we were working with a buyer who was in exchange. We already had 2 deals under contract with them and they really needed a 3rd to complete the exchange. We saw a deal that had been listed 2 days previously and it fit the clients criteria and remaining amount in their exchange. Best of all, we had a relationship with the listing brokerage as we are already under contract with them on another deal for this client's exchange. Asking price was $5m and we offered $5,090,000 30 day look/10 day close. 2 hours later we received a call from the CEO of the company. She started off cordial because, well, Mason had a prior professional relationship with this woman. Things quickly turned when she asked Mason "How he looked himself in the mirror?" and telling him he a "scumbag who only cares about low hanging fruit?" "Under no circumstance will we be paying you any commission on this deal. Your client is welcome to buy it but we will be keeping the entire fee" The reason was because she's known our client for years and because we already are under contract on a deal with this company. Our response was "If you know the buyer so well, why didn't you show him this deal?" That only made her more angry... so she said they let the other deal slide but this one they have no intention of paying a commission. Mind you, this woman makes $1-2m a year. We told the client and they were unwilling to pay our fee. Mason and I were pissed - what could we do? We have no signed buyer rep agreement and no recourse. We could let it go, move on, take the high road... F*ck that We started thinking of ways to get revenge... The best idea we could come up with that night is to buy their office building, rezone it for MF, and kick 'em out. It worked because it was a shitty office building on maybe the best development tract in Dallas. We looked up the owner of their office building and immediately called him "Would you sell 5550 LBJ?" "Yeah, actually this is perfect timing we just sorted out a title issue and are looking to sell." "Great, we'll get you an offer and take it from there" Holy sh*t We immediately called one of my best friends and college roommate Dustin who worked for a PE group in NYC. They loved the deal. What's not to love? 8.5 acres, 364k SF of office, and an existing parking garage. 17% occupied and all had short term leases or were willing to be bought out. Within a couple weeks we had an incredible offer to put in front of the owner and we were off to the races. That deal closed late yesterday after 1,322 days of working on it. Funny enough, the CEO who wronged us already moved their company out of the property before we were able to close. That's fine. Before they left, she found out that we had put the deal together. We heard she yelled at her office and land broker because they couldn't sell the building they were working in. We are now on to bigger and better things, but this one feels good. --- The story of the actual deal is an incredible one, but I wanted to highlight how it came about. I will post the story of the actual transaction soon, but for now... enjoy our revenge story

Off-Market Value-Add

32,007 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Pressing, transitions and goals in Canada! After the hiring of Jesse Marsch this week by Canada Soccer , there has been lots of talk about pressing and transitions in the football community. This is THE style of play that we have used for the last 5 years with Alliance United FC in @L1OMens and will give you some insight in how this can look. We went away from the 'possession' based 1-4-3-3 that everyone has been using as the 'best way' to develop players and win games. Many say this is the 'right way' of playing. However, we use the players' abilities and inabilities as the starting point and based on players produced in Canada, within our youth system, this is the way we think will get us the best results and help our players get to the next level. You need to understand youth development in our country to understand what is and what is not being taught to young players. This is not a negative outlook, it is just looking at the reality. Many mistake this style of play as just non-stop pressing and chaos. Yes, these two aspects are important but it is a much more deliberate and planned way of playing that is used to predict where the opposition will play the ball, where the ball can be dictated and what areas the opposition leave open for transitions when they attack. In 2019, I was introduced to Ernst Tanner former Academy Director of Red Bull Salzburg and current Philadelphia Union Sporting Director that has led the club to being one of the top clubs in MLS and arguably the best academies in North America the last few years. Both organisations are known for their pressing and fast transitions in addition to producing top players. He became a mentor to me and gave me insights and education on this style of play. He has changed the way I look at football. Every season we try to recruit players that can play this style that I will describe below and we do not waiver in the way we played. Every game since 2019 Alliance United FC have played either in a 1-4-2-2-2 or a 1-4-4-2 midfield diamond....every game. We have no secrets in how we play. We focus on defending, pressing, forcing teams into mistakes and transition football. It is important to understand that we do not care how much possession we have and we actually want the opposition to have the ball most of the time. Stats in football show that only when a team has the ball 70% or more in a match their is a correlation to winning. Anything less is not correlated to winning in a certain match. In addition, 80% of goals are scored under 5 passes or less and under 10 seconds when regaining possession. We follow the trend! So, here are some important points based on the video: a) Pressing higher up the pitch when possible. All 11 players are committed to the team intention (principles) and if anybody is not committed and does not contribute to this style of play, they do not play. There is no leeway on this. Either you are in 100% in or you are not. All it takes is one player to not commit and the plan will not work. If we do not win the ball on the high press, everyone is to drop behind the ball as fast as possible to restart the press closer to our goal. b) Based on the opponent's scouting we press certain players and decide if will press closer to the sideline and 'pin' the player to the sideline or we dictate the passes and dribbles centrally and 'surround' the player to win the ball in central positions. We also decide if we will sometimes drop lower for the opposition to advance so we can play behind them when winning the ball. This is done if we scout that the opposition centre-backs are slower than our two strikers. 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Ilya Orlov

14,114 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

This 88 second video fires me up. It's a call to all dreamers who want to quit their GARBAGE jobs, retire their MOTHER, eat STEAK instead of ramen and go to sleep PROUD of who they are. I want every single person on the internet to watch and read this. The video starts with comedian Andrew Schulz in all his glory sitting on the NYC subway. He’s watching a video in some crappy comedy club on his way to Madison Square Garden. Camera zooms in on him: Jewish comic, porn star mustache, german 1920 hair cut, Frank Sinatra blaring, wearing a Puerto Rican jacket. It’s weird but it’s perfect and that’s the point. When they zoom in on his eyes, you can see he’s been through hell and back. The harsh truth is if you want to win in life, you’re eating more dirt sandwiches than His dream is the same as every comic’s dream. Play Madison Square Garden one day. And it’s happening for Andrew. Frank Sinatra’s “My Way” starts getting louder and louder. Andrew bangs on a beam on his way up. Almost breaks his hand. But it doesn’t matter. Hell yeah. No one can touch me. Life’s for the taking. He runs up the stairs. Just too excited to walk. Walking is for losers. When he touches the steps of MSG, it feels like redemption. This is heaven on earth and you can’t argue otherwise. It oozes “I did it”. It oozes “I was nothing and now I’m something” It oozes “look at me now” to an ex-gf that broke up with him because he was a “loser and never would get a real job”. Andrew Shultz is living his American dream, loud and clear. To me, I never had dreams of playing Madison Square Garden. You’re probably the same. But here's the raw truth: the internet is where everyone's wildest dreams come to life But I replace MSG with the internet and some weird niche of it that fascinates you. I want to watch this every AM. So, if you make it to the deep end of this post… 1) Define your Madison Square Garden of the internet 2) Own 2024 and beyond This fires me up. I'm sharing it because maybe it fires you up too.. Reply/like/RT/Bookmark this post so this message gets spread to throughout world. -- I don't use ChatGPT to write my posts. Follow me GREG ISENBERG for real, raw, unfiltered stories and posts about startups and internet communities If you really want to support me, check out my link in bio and sign up.

GREG ISENBERG

530,983 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

We're bringing in some fun changes to Dremica this Sunday. Come try it out and see the progress. We can't have a Web3 game without degeneracy. Lokito's gambling antics have inspired a new way to play the game. On Sunday you'll be able to try your luck with your in game gold by spinning Big Boy's Wheel in an attempt to help you top the leaderboards. Also since we've added so much to the game it's time to look at the gameplay loop and its economy. Here's the changes I've proposed and my thoughts. Economic Simplicity We need your in game achievements to feel impactful. Dremica is designed as an MMO to give players freedom of how they play the game. Whether its killing monsters, leveling up tradeskills or playing with their gold. The common denominator for everything is XP (player levels). Even gold can be used to buy XP tomes from the shop to level up your skills. Now I propose we distribute our prize pool to players based on their levels. It's future-proof and allows us to add more features without breaking the core gameplay loops. All players will receive rewards from the SAMA prize pool based on their level obtained. Currently the Carnage prize pool is 100,000 SAMA so EVERY player will get a share of it based on what level they reach during the session. Your level / Total levels from all players * Prize pool = Your rewards. Also to keep that competitive spirit we'll be adding additional prizes for the top 10 on the leaderboard. When the Dremica BETA starts it allows us to simply add in a potential new tokenomic model and also allows PVP to plug into the system with ease. TLDR: More levels = more rewards. Why add in RNG-based mechanics (with the wheel?) Seeing the same people hit top 3 of the leaderboard each week isn't exactly exciting for new players. We can't have a stagnant monotonous grind, we need something dynamic. High-risk/high-reward scenarios change everything. Starting with Big Boy's wheel, we plan more exciting game play options including the new PVP zone in the beta. Personally I can't wait to see someone get super lucky and cause absolute havoc in the community. We're in the Alpha testing phase anyway, let's see how it unfolds. How can you make this sustainable? To make a Web3 game work, it needs to absorb more tokens than what are emitted. Dremica uses a fixed prize pool per session, if we can ensure enough utility that players spend their rewards and more than are emitted it can fund the gaming sessions indefinitely. Next month we're going to be focusing on pushing out the in-game SAMA shop where players can start spending the rewards they earn. It will be the first major step for Dremica to begin adding token utility. Additional utility is planned for the future whether its cosmetic-based rewards or unannounced mechanics. We've held back on planned tokenomic/ecosystem changes to focus on building the game first. If these happen there's only one chance to get it right. I think everyone knows gaming is one of the best use cases of Web3, just need to build a fun experience and keep people engaged. We've got enough time, runway and support to get Dremica up there in the Web3 gaming echelon. What else have you got planned? Each of the past months Dremica has been pushing out some hard-hitting updates and the game is truly taking shape. The team is working tirelessly to keep adding more features and improving the experience. Now that a lot of the core functionality required for an MMORPG is in, we can start to look at expansion. As you'll see later this week we're bringing in other projects/partners to join us on the journey. The Dremica BETA is the next major milestone where the game will look vastly different and the whole world is changing. And hopefully our frens at Beam will be able to assist and make sure everyone knows about it. I originally titled the work on Dremica as the "Secret weapon" before it was announced. Work on "Secret Weapon 2.0" has started which will enhance the Dremica/Carnage experience further. For Dremica to succeed we're doubling down on the "Carnage" model where everyone comes together at the same time to play. This is how the whole Moonsama ecosystem started 3+ years ago. The new Secret Weapon aims to fill that void. How can I play? If you own an EXO join our token-gated community at If you're brand new join and the team/community will be able to help you get access to the game. The next play test is this Sunday February 9th at 4pm UTC. A 2 hour session where you play to get the highest level you can. See you in game 🔥

Donnie

30,973 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

We LOVE you Mrs. Scotty Mrs.Scotty (Shaylene). Thank you for letting us share Scotty with you for all of these years. This is for you too Christina Christina Martin We will FOREVER MISS you Scotty!🙏😭🙏 I met a young man about 7 years ago that had a vision, step for step the same one that came to me. The difference was, this young man was on fire and already active in said vision. I met my twin brother that day. I met this young man when I had setup and was finally ready to get to it and still had loads of questions. To say we hit it off right away is an understatement. I had already made sure EVERYTHING this young man did was safe and secured at more than several locations. THEN, the inevitable happened. ScrewTube screwed him and nixed his channel. THAT didn't affect this young man in the least. He hopped right on Rumble and continued and didn't miss a beat. HE WAS A MACHINE, SO ON FIRE, HE MELTED VINYL EVERYDAY, WHILE PLANTING THE SEEDS THAT NEEDED SEWN. I for one have learned much and I hope I have been able to PLANT SOME SEEDS MYSELF. Because that's what we do. These videos we make are not cut and dry information. They are only tools we give you freely, in hope that you yourselves, will do research to confirm OR deny what is in them. A starting point for your own journeys to the truth each one of you seek. COLLECTIVELY we are stronger than any government, or any A.I. An A.I. is ONLY what it's programmed to be, learning or not, they are setup on parameters and are still just a programmed, program, written by a man to start with. I will miss what this young man has brought to this movement. This young man has assembled the most diverse, most lovable, absolutely BEST PEPES on the whole interweb I have EVER had the pleasure of knowing and becoming Frens with. This group, UNDER this young man, is what many would call a miracle. THE WORLD WILL BE A BETTER PLACE ALL BECAUSE OF A YOUNG MAN NAMED SCOTTY MAR10! My Friend, my Brother, that I will miss with all of my heart! The 1st 2 songs were written by our online Scotty Mar10 Family members, Not A Guitar Player and ChewChew. Please find them and THANK THEM for their beautiful contributions. Then find Scotty's cousin, Test Dummy and thank him for helping make Scotty a song, his heart. They are all on X and Rumble. Here are their X's: NotAGuitarPlayer @notaguitarplayer (everywhere)except here🍿 ChewChew Chewchew TestDummy TestDummy #DarkKnightFilms #DarkKnight #TrinityNewsNetwork #TNN

Dark Knight

21,408 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Some Big Numbers To Get Excited About Regular readers will know I often write of frustration at not moving fast enough. This mission I am on is really hard and sometimes it can seem impossibly big when I am down in the weeds dealing with dog issues on a daily basis. I have to say though that writing this tonight and looking through some numbers I feel for the first time that I am starting to make some large scale progress… A Second Island 🌴🥥 I live and help the dogs on the island of Koh Samui. There is an island of equal size called Koh Phangan just across the water. You probably have heard of it as the home of the world famous Full Moon Party. They have a similar problem with street dogs. Since the the 1st May I have starting funding a wonderful foundation called PACS to sterilise dogs there. They are starting with 50 this month. This is going to stop 1000s of future puppies. A big step. 90,000 Meals Served in 2023 So Far 🥘👨‍🍳 The cooking never stops. The dogs are all starting to benefit from a consistent and healthy meal per day. All the food is prepared in a central kitchen and handed out to volunteers to feed their dogs. With 5000 meals served per week around the island it blows my mind that soon we will serve the 100,000th wholesome plate of food in 2023. It wasn’t that long ago I was driving around on my moped with a 10kg bag of dry food feeding a paltry 20 dogs per day on my own. 7 Puppies Re-Homed 🐶🏠 In the last couple of weeks there have been 25-30 puppies show up. It can be incredibly tough to find them homes but thanks to a great Thai lady I have been able to get 7 into their forever homes around the country. It has involved a lot of vet visits, 1000kms of travel and lots of expense but that is 7 dogs who have a future now who wouldn’t have made it otherwise. 2 Miracles For Lady 🙏😊 The first miracle for Lady was the fact that she got off the street and was able to start walking a little again despite her two broken hips. We’ve been getting her a lot of treatment and she is thriving. Her 2nd miracle was when a lovely newly retired gentleman called Jamie spotted her and offered Lady a forever home to live out her life right here on the island. Nobody usually wants old and sick dogs so this incredibly selfless act is the huge slice of luck that Lady deserved after all the suffering she has endured. The Best Day Of Tina’s Life 🐕🥰 Tina was used for breeding puppies. We all saw the horrendous state she was in when she was rescued. Last week she was well enough to be sterilised so as she never has to have another puppy in her life again. It might seem like a small footnote in the bigger scheme of things but it was a moment of closure for this wonderful lady who has suffered so much. She can now just focus on being a dog for for the first time in her life and sharing all the love she has to give. Tina was the 521st dog I have sterilised since starting. King Whacker Of Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿✈️ Whacker is a very special dog who was one of the first arrivals back in November. Someone had tried to kill him with a pick axe. After recovering he turned into a true gent and is the big boss at the land. I promised he would never have to go back on the streets and this week after a process to find him the right home he got the news that he will be heading to Glasgow. Long live Whacker, the King of Scotland. 125 Dogs To Be Sterilised In May ✂️🐕 I spoke about how abstract sterilising can be for many people to understand but it is what will save the most dogs from suffering. In all of 2022 I was able to do 302 dogs. In the month of May alone I have a minimum target to fund 125. In June I hope to take that to 250 dogs for the month. Not easy and very expensive but I’m putting the groundwork in place to scale this up. Nothing is more important. Little Rodney was in getting the snip last week as one of the dogs this month. 7 European Dogs 🇪🇺🛫 By the end of June there will be 7 dogs who have traveled to Europe. Lottie, Hope, King Whacker, Rodney and Moritz will join Little Squeak and Peaches who just arrived in Germany. I can’t explain how hard it is to figure all this stuff out and get the processes in place. I’m focusing on Europe now as it is the easiest for travel and paperwork but the rest of the world will happen soon too. It’s only 7 dogs but seeing them in their homes or about to travel makes me so happy and proud for them all. Progress The suffering I see on a daily basis for street dogs means that I am never really happy with the speed and progress of my mission. I just want to help them all immediately but that isn’t possible. Having said that, reading this update and knowing what else is coming in the pipeline makes me feel that I am making genuine progress. Between food, funding sterilisations, medical care and re-homing dogs I can genuinely now say I’m helping 100s of dogs per month but also stopping the suffering of 1000s in the future. As I always say I could never do any of this without the online support and good wishes of everybody on the mission with me. I don’t feel like I am alone doing this. My role is to make sure I don’t waste all the support and ensure I think of ways to move faster and execute accordingly. A lot done, a lore more to do. Big Love Niall P.S You can always support by donating here...

Niall Harbison

193,838 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren

Moneytaur study blueprint 🗺️ The process I used to go from not knowing what an order block is to pulling cash from the crypto markets in under 6 months using 🎯 Master concepts. Proof of performance, past 120 days👇 Start date: 09/03/2025 Requirements: - A PC/laptop - Wifi - A basic understanding of trading. ( What candlesticks are, how to actually place trades , etc ) - A free mind - Time or the ability to free up time. Starting: - Structure and routine - Stick to that routine + Pre mortem plan. - Notion / Obsidian setup. The first thing you need to create is a clear routine moulded around how you intend to approach this very large and complex task. This will not be linear and you will naturally adapt it as you progress but especially in the beginning some resemblance of structure each day is vital. This is an individual process but it is important to understand from the beginning that this will require a majority of your free time assuming you work a full time Job or study as a student. For me in the beginning this looked like: - Wake up at 6:30. - Shower - Study/work for 1h 45m before leaving for work. - 09:00 -> 17:00 work - 17:30 Exercise / Train - Eat - 19:00 resume study/work - 22:30 Start to wind down and get ready to sleep. It changed several times over the months and especially now I am full time but this is irrelevant, the only thing that matters is sticking with what you choose. Whatever your own routine may look like, it is important to understand it will inevitably require sacrifice. --- The next thing once you have established a draft framework of your routine is ensuring you will actually stick to that routine. Something I implemented which I found particularly beneficial was the concept of a Pre-Mortem plan. This involves creating several scenarios of a future in which you have failed and working backwards from each of these to find where it went wrong. Here is a video which explains it fully: When I did this I came up with 3 scenarios as well as prevention and cure for each. In the 6 months that followed each scenario presented at some point but I was able to catch them early due to having done this. The last thing is to not over complicate this, don't hyper focus on systems and loose momentum optimizing each detail. Just ensure you do the fucking work. I was a little guilty of the above at times, trying to craft the perfect routine. In reality the person who just gets up, drinks too much coffee and works his ass off out performs the workflow perfectionist who visualizes and repeats affirmations, any day of the week. --- Next you need somewhere to store your notes, journal your trades and build your knowledge. For me this was Obsidian but I have also used Notion before and it is an equally viable option. Whichever one of these you choose be warned you will inevitably want to bang your head against a wall trying to use them for the first few days, but they will both click pretty quick and are 100% better options the word document or paper alternative. Here is my full obsidian setup tutorial: Here is a link to MisterPA 's notion Journal: Here is how I create "Meta-Notes" using obsidian: The process: - How I did it. - How I would do it if doing it again. Now I did things the "hard way" and manually worked my way back through each of MT's tweets starting in 2021, reading every one and logging those that I felt where relevant. You can see in my first post: the very first system I used to do this. I quickly adapted though after about a week and focused less on just logging each relevant tweet but trying to find and focusing on those which contained the most information. There where a lot of charts I looked at then skipped over because especially at the start of his timeline they contained little useful information and my time was better spent finding those where there was something to decode. Now this does not mean skip out on "work" just use your time efficiently. -- If however if I was to start from the beginning again with the goal of levelling up technical understanding as quickly as possible I would take a different approach. To start with I would familiarise myself with all relevant SMC concepts, I have linked the best free recourses for this below 👇 CryptoChase beginner friendly index: Barncore's "The Moneytaur Way" series: Gian's Trading bootcamp playlist: Following this I would then work through all of Taur's subscription posts working backwards, recreating his charts and taking notes on his logic. The subscription feed has the highest value density and least noise. Video example of my notes from his subscription posts 👇: --- Okay so now once you have a basic understanding of concepts and can re-recreate them on charts of your own it is time to put this in to practice. The next step is vigorous backtesting, you can use the trading view tool but I think trade Zella offers a more use friendly option if you pay for the subscription. Especially as it allows you to change timeframes without skipping ahead to candle close time of the timeframe you change too ( like Trading view does ) *my only note would be that their LTF/Micro TF data feed with be different to brokerage charts you will use on Trading view, to start with though you should not be going low enough that this is an issue. When you backtest in this context, treat it like real trading. That means journal and logging like you would if real cash was on the line. Take time, do not rush and focus on quality. Stick to BTC, ETH, Major FX pairs or indices as these assets are less reliant on confluence, backtesting a shitcoin is near useless as whether levels work or not will be highly dependent on Majors PA. Go on HTF, scroll back a couple years and try not too look at chart while doing so and then begin. Start with HTF analysis and work down to 2H or wherever you feel comfortable, chart it fully and then identify setups. Make rough notes / plans and then press play, execute the setups as they hit, log and journal trade management as well as observations and key notes. It is very important to not cheat when you do this, do not skip back and adjust your stoploss because it hit by 0.1%, do not skip back and adjust plan because you missed a block and your TP got frontrun. Instead these are the things you journal, embrace these mistakes because they are the cheapest mistakes you are going to make. Grind this, do it for hours, put some music on and enjoy. To start with focus on HTF's, as you get better and start netting $ on paper you can drop the timeframes and increase the difficulty. HTF = Normal, MTF = Medium, LTF = Hard. Even if you do not intend to day trade, learning how to read the lower TF's that force you to think faster, harder and prepare you for lower win rates / loss streaks can greatly improve your ability on higher TF's. While you are doing this as you start to have concepts click you now want to build up your real trading experience, take a sum of money that you care about but will be okay loosing and dedicate this to live trading. Start taking real trades and expect net losses in the beginning. This is where you will make you 2nd cheapest mistakes. This is also where you can begin to learn about your psychology. You may encounter some elements already in backtesting but the real market is where true colours really start to show. Mental issues are inevitable and part of the game, get used to them and start working to identify and fix them. Reading and applying books like Trading in the Zone and Mental Game of Trading are important and will help a lot but there is no easy fix, for some stuff you I believe you just have to get used to it and it goes away with experience. Losses suck at the beginning but after you loose 100 times you starting getting pretty numb to it, same goes for the winners. To accelerate the learning process, build connections and get advice there is also always the option of private groups, while I never personally chose this route and committed to learning everything through my own endeavours there is no denying that having nearly all the information you need structured and compiled in one place is valuable and can save time. Beyond this having access to real time thoughts and opinions of profitable traders can accelerate performance, however it carries the risk of being a double edged sword if not used properly, if relying on it like a crutch and using it as a substitute for real work you will not succeed. With that said if you take it for what it is, a learning opportunity then I believe it can be very beneficial. I am not a member of, nor affiliated with any paid group. There are now many options available within the community, all run by different people with different styles, tailored to different needs. If I was to make a recommendation though, as a non-member, it would be Albert & Co's 618'ers simply due to the diversity in styles of the traders running it and results I have seen from members I know personally. It is important that as you start to trade with real capital you reduce noise in your social feeds or eliminate it all together. You do not need 5 different opinions, you also do not need 2 people telling you the same thing in their own way so you feel re-assured. What you do need is to develop your independent thinking as a trader and be comfortable making different decisions to others, even traders ahead of yourself if it fits with your system or understanding of market. Taur here is perhaps an exception as this is who you are learning from but down the line a real test of your own ability and independence will be being able to stick with your own plan even when it differs from his. Don't get me wrong, counter trading him is retarded but you must learn to adapt his gift to your own style. This will make sense at some point. The next stage is taking your understanding of specific concepts to higher level as you simultaneously snowball experience. Look back through your journal and review where you lost money and made money, do not over extrapolate from a small sample but start to take notes and observe if trends in performance emerge. This is the beginning of the transition to self reliance, you now understand the strategy but must learn for yourself when and where it works. Here you can also learn more nuanced secondary concepts such as VSA, orderflow etc and add these to your game where appropriate. Do NOT get lost in the sauce though and remember mastery of basics is key. IMO a big focus should be understanding correlation thoroughly but especially on HTF's this is the most important thing and what triggers the majority of large swings where most of your cash will be made and losses recovered. Some people will disagree with me here but IMO you should also not be *focusing* on Odd TF's. These are secondary at best and most people overweight their significance leading to avoidable losses while wondering why price did not care about their 327minute Breaker Block which they think is the key to the market. Study Taurs feed and take note of how he mostly uses: 3M, 1M, 3W, 2W, 1W, 5D, 4D, 3D, 2D, 1D, 12H, 8H, 6H, 4H, 2H, 1H, 30m, 15m + micro time frames. The only thing left is time and repetition, you must show up each day and really do this, for months. Maybe you start to see result's, you catch your first key swing and where able to trade where others froze. Congratulations. Learn from these winners and repeat the actions. Find what assets work best for you, find your style, refine and grow. --- The last thing I will include is a short list of tools or links that can be helpful. - Trading view tutorial: - Dictionary: - Market news Calendar: --- Thank you too all those who have read this, I hope this has been helpful for the beginners who want to start but are just not sure how. 🫶 Don't just bookmark this and move on, start 🙃

Ace

45,185 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

I've never heard Elon Musk be so bullish on Tesla ⚡️ here's my video analysis of the $TSLA Q4 2024 earnings call: -Robotaxi launch in Austin, June 2025 -California & other states launch robotaxi late 2025 -Cybercab in 2026 -Optimus V1 in 2025, 1K/month production line -Optimus V2 in 2026, 10K/month production line -2026 good year for Tesla, 2027/28 insanely good & more!! Timestamps- 0:00 Intro 0:44 Elon Opening Remarks 13:29 SAY Retail Questions 22:37 Analyst Questions 25:04 Gali Final Thoughts/Rant also here are my notes I typed during the conference call if you're interested! (may be errors) Tesla Q4 2024 Earnings Call Notes INTRO- ELON OPENING REMARKS -Q4 set record, delivered cars at rate of almost 2M cars/year -Model Y best-selling vehicle of any kind on earth (elon focused and talking quickly) -10Xing on autonomy, not doubling -many investments made this year that will bear immense fruit in the future, for AI -see a path for Tesla to the worlds most valuable company by far, worth more than the next 5 companies combined, difficult but achievable path -overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous robots -setting up for an epic 2026, and ridiculously good 2027 and 2028 -meeting FSD now is like meeting a toddler -human intuition is linear, we’re seeing exponential progress -#1 recommendation is try it -typical passenger car has 10 hours of use out of 168, when its autonomous, itll be used for 55 hours a week … can deliver packages in the middle of thenight, or supply restaurants, all hours of the day or night. 5X increase in utility -more on self driving, continued improvements in safety numbers, much safer to use FSD -V14 will be another big step from V13 -launched CORTEX training cluster at Giga Austin, big step for FSD, continue to invest in training needs -Optimus training needs are about 10X what’s needed for the car -cost of training is dropping dramatically over time -Optimus has potential to be north of $10T in revenue, can put a lot training compute into that situation, even pumping $500B into it would be a good deal -future very different from the past, incredible inflection point in human history -proof is in the pudding -launching in June this year in Austin, already have cars moving autonomously in Fremont, thousands of cars per day driving, soon in Austin then elsewhere in the world -toe in the water at first to make sure everything is cool, but we have a general solution for autonomy , then put a few more toes, then a foot. Safety of the general public and those in the car as the top priority -with regard to Optimus, making insane revenue projections that sound insane, i realize that. But i think they will prove to be accurate -several thousand bots made this year, they will be doing useful things by the end of this year, im confidence, production design one at the tesla factories, then will learn for production design two -ramp optimus production faster than anything has ever launched, doesn’t take very many years before we’er making 100M of these things per year , 500% growth per year -tried using all these suppliers to get it to build Optimus, but nothing worked, had to build it internally from first principles, the hand is increibdle -long term Optimus will be the value of the company -back to Energy,/earth, -energy storage is a big deal, becoming more important, enables far greater energy output to the grid than is currently possible. -grid has no storage, designed for peak storage, lots of waste -once you have grid energy storage, the potential of the grid is unlocked, at least double -this will drive demand of battery packs as to as much as we can possibly make -shanghai factory starting operation, starting another factory -cant shoot our selves in the foot, battery capacity can only go into storage or mobility, so always making that tradeoff -demand for total Gigawatt hours for batteries, transportation or stationary will grow in a very big way over time 2025 a pivotal year for tesla, launch of full self driving, biggest year in tesla history, maybe even bigger than first car or model s, 3 or y … probably most important year in tesla’s history I don’t even know who is in 2nd place in real world AI, would need a telescope to see them SAY QUESTIONS -FSD Unsupervised launched in California this year as well -most likely release it in many regions of the US by the end of this year -40K people day everyday no mention, some scrapes a shin with autonomous car its headlines news -need to use insane amounts of caution -discussions about licensing FSD? Yes -best way to know to work with us, bbuy a car and take it apart -only worth very high volume cars/production partners -tesla engineering very focused on getting it to roll out for tesla first -soon will be obvious that if you don’t have FSD you’re dead as an OEM -is Optimus design locked? -Optimus is not design locked, constantly iterating, best robotics engineers in the world, and other ingredients, battery pack, charging, great electronics, great communications, great connectivity, real world AI, then you need to scale that production to real world levels -prototypes are easy production is hard -thijs year close loop with using optimus internally at tesla, would could obviously use a few thousand robots for the most boring annoying tasks at the company -with production version 2, launches sometime next year, would like beginning, might be middle though, -production line will be doing 10K units per month capacity for v2, first line designing is for roughly 1,000 units per month, then next line will be for 100,000 units per month -could start delivering them late next year, will go so fast, will ramp like crazy, demand will not be a problem, even at a high price, once were above 1M units per year, production costs of optimus will be less than $20,000 -if you compare complexity of optimus to complexity of a car, its much less than a car -price of optimus will be set buy market demand -Semi ramping next year, TCO no brainer, like optimus, will be massive demand, will meaningfully contribute to tesla’s revenue at scale -tesla semi with autonomy, is incredibly valuable -we actually have a shortage of truck drivers here in the US -will HW3 owners need a hardware update, got 12.6 which is like a baby v13, have’t given up on it, releases will trail HW4 releases … “honest answer” is were going to have to upgrade for those who have bought full self driving, will be painful and difficult and we’ll get it done “Happy not many people bought FSD” -solar roof, given up on ramping it? -lots of customer interest despite premium, making easier to install, focused on growth through certified installers, many been installing for many years -supply product to the roofing industry -it’s a premium product like S/X -combined with Tesla powerwall you can be self sufficient for several days ANALYST QUETIONS -robotaxis in Austin and several other cities this year, and next year all over america -america innovates, europe regulates, to release FSD in europe, have to go through massive paperwork through netherlands, then presents to EU in may, some big country committee, nothing we can do to make it happen sooner. -can’t do training in china with video training, publicly available videos in china are being run through the tesla system to be used for training, bus lanes are complicated and a big challenge -tesla can keep manufacturing even if geopolitical tensions rise to very high levels -Pierre question on June in Austin, -can i try unsupervised myself, or will it be the Tesla fleet? -it will be the Tesla fleet testing it, that’s the toe in the water, scrutinizing everything -autonomous ride hailing for money in june -probably next year for you to put your car on network -trump removing EV incentives? -all transport will go electric, can’t be stopped, even planes, will be like stopping the steam engine or combustion engine -only thing holding back EVs was range, and thats a solved problem -right now solving battery production, not demand, big battery retooling for model y coming up, short term impact on output

Gali

79,010 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

At 17, Quentin Tarantino moved to LA with ambitions of being a filmmaker. He got a job at a video store, Video Archives, and, he said, “I got caught up in the little life there...and for a few years, it put my ambitions to sleep. Because I was happy enough.” Then one night, An older guy named Steve-O who Tarantino worked and lived with vented about being disgusted with his life. “He starts ranting,” Tarantino said, “He goes, ‘Quentin...at 20, I worked at South Bay Cinemas, and I hung out with a bunch of guys just like you...Then I worked at Miller’s Outpost for 4 years, and I hung out with a bunch of guys just like you...Then I worked at Licorice Pizza for 4 years with a bunch of guys just like you. I’ve wasted my life hanging out with a bunch of guys just like you.” Tarantino was about to turn 25 at this time, and leading up to Steve-O’s rant, he said, “I was starting to [think], ‘What have I done with my life so far? So far fucking nothing.’ So as I'm having my own little anxieties hitting 25, I'm seeing what it’s like when you’re in that situation in your 30s.” Not wanting to be in that situation in his 30s—after Steve-O’s rant, Tarantino had what he calls a “Quentin Detest Fest”—“I stayed up all night. looking at everything that I’m fucking up in my life...And then I spent two hours figuring out how I can change it.” “And as opposed to just doing that, and then going to sleep, forgetting about it and falling back into my routine, I decided to change my life.” Tarantino decided to move from the South Bay to Koreatown, closer to the action in Hollywood. Not long after moving to the Hollywood area, he said, “I met a guy who wrote low-budget horror movies. Through him, I met other writers...You meet one person, and they introduce you to three others. Now all of a sudden, I actually knew people who were making movies.” Surrounded by people making movies, Tarantino started writing his own scripts and helping other writers with theirs. Soon, when those writers would get offered jobs rewriting scripts, if they couldn’t take it, they’d recommend Quentin. “And within a year and a half of moving into the Hollywood area,” Tarantino said, “literally, within a year and a half, I was able to make a living as a writer.” Takeaway 1: Tarantino said of those years working at the video store—“it put my ambitions to sleep. Because I was happy enough.” “I was happy enough,” he repeats. When you’re happy enough, when the job, the pay, or the circumstances are good enough—the psychologist Adam Mastroianni calls this The Mediocrity Trap. Mediocre situations, he writes, “keep you forever in their orbit because they never inspire the frustration it takes to achieve escape velocity.” To escape the mediocrity trap, you often need a setback (e.g. getting fired), a Steve-O rant, or, Mastroianni writes, “someone to come in and tell you it’s time to start living.” Takeaway 2: Throughout “Atomic Habits,” James Clear writes that the most reliable way to create better habits is to go to “where your desired behavior is the normal behavior.” Walt Disney moved to Hollywood after a decade of trying and failing to make it as a cartoonist in Kansas City. Bob Dylan moved to NYC to pursue his music ambitions. Julia Child moved to Paris and discovered her culinary ambitions. Tarantino moved to Hollywood to wake up his filmmaking ambitions. The songwriter & record producer Ryan Tedder tells the story of a time he spoke to a group of aspiring musicians. One of them told him that they’d been trying and failing for years to break into the music business. As Tedder tells it, “I said, ‘Where do you live?’ She said, ‘Holland.’ I said, ‘That's why.’ She said, ‘What?’ We were in LA—I said, ‘Move here. Move to London. Or move to New York...You gotta go to where it is.’” If you’re in the mediocrity trap, if your ambitions have been put to sleep, if you’ve been trying and failing for years—you gotta go to where what you desire is what’s normal.

Billy Oppenheimer

47,175 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Lessons from Mary Kay Ash, the greatest saleswoman in history: 1. Golden Rule Leadership: The Golden Rule is one of the world’s oldest and best-known philosophies, yet it’s frequently overlooked in business circles. Mary Kay proved this rule is still powerful in today’s complicated world. 2. You Build with People: Leaders are dependent upon the performance of their people, and so is a company’s success. Good people are a company’s most important asset. People are more important than the plan. 3. The Invisible Sign: Everyone has an invisible sign hanging from their neck saying, “MAKE ME FEEL IMPORTANT!” Never forget this message when working with people. 4. Praise People to Success: Each of us craves recognition. Let people know you appreciate their performance, and they’ll respond by doing even better. Recognition is the most powerful of all motivating techniques. 5. The Art of Listening: Good leaders are good listeners. God gave us two ears and only one mouth, so we should listen twice as much as we speak. When you listen, the benefit is twofold: you receive necessary information, and you make the other person feel important. 6. Sandwich Every Bit of Criticism Between Two Heavy Layers of Praise: Sometimes it’s necessary to let somebody know you’re unhappy with their performance. But direct your criticism at the act, not the person. Criticize effectively in a positive way so you don’t destroy morale. (Shane's note, I actually don't agree with this. I've never met a high performer that needs this or wants it.) 7. Be a Follow-Through Person: Be the kind of person who can always be counted on to do what you say you’ll do. Only a small percentage of people possess follow-through ability, and they’re held in high esteem by all. It’s particularly important for your team to know you possess this rare quality and to think of you as totally reliable. 8. Enthusiasm Moves Mountains: Nothing great is ever achieved without enthusiasm. Leaders are enthusiastic, and enthusiasm is contagious. Interestingly, the word enthusiasm has a Greek origin, meaning “God within.” 9. The Speed of the Leader Is the Speed of the Gang: You must set the pace for your people. Real leaders aren’t afraid to get their hands dirty. They set examples by demonstrating good work habits, displaying positive attitudes, and possessing team spirit. True leaders establish success patterns that make everyone think of success. 10. People Will Support That Which They Help to Create: Invite people to participate in new projects that are still in the “thinking” stage. By confiding in associates and seeking their opinions, you generate support at the initial stage of each new venture. People often resist change when they don’t participate in the decision-making process. Some of the best leaders “plant the seed” that permits others to propose the idea and take credit for it. 11. An Open-Door Philosophy: At Mary Kay corporate headquarters, there are no titles on executives’ doors, and there’s ready access to all management levels. Everyone within the company, from mailroom clerk to chairman of the board, is a human being and is treated accordingly. 12. Help Other People Get What They Want—and You’ll Get What You Want: As the parable of the talents tells us, we’re meant to use and increase whatever God has given us. And when we do, we shall be given more. 13. Stick to Your Principles: Everything is subject to change except one’s principles. Never, absolutely never, compromise your principles. 14. A Matter of Pride: Everyone within an organization should have a sense of pride in their work. They should also feel proud to be associated with the company. It’s a manager’s job to instill this feeling and promote this attitude among their people. 15. You Can’t Rest on Your Laurels: Nothing wilts faster than a laurel rested upon. Every person should have a lifetime self-improvement program. In today’s fast-paced world, you can’t stand still. You either go forward or backward. 16. Be a Risk-Taker: You must encourage people to take risks. Let them know that “nobody wins ’em all.” If you come down on them too hard for losing, they’ll stop sticking their necks out. 17. Work and Enjoy It: It’s okay to have fun while you work. Good managers encourage a sense of humor. In fact, the more enjoyment people derive from their work, the better they will produce. 18. Nothing Happens Until Somebody Sells Something: Every organization has something to “sell,” and every person in the company must realize that nothing happens until somebody sells something. Accordingly, they should be fully supportive of the selling effort. 19. Never Hide Behind Policy or Pomposity: Never say, “That’s against company policy” unless you have a good explanation to back up the policy. It infuriates people. It’s as if you were saying, “We do it this way because it’s the way we’ve always done it.” By the same token, pomposity can also be a transparent cover-up for incompetence. 20. Be a Problem-Solver: The best leaders recognize when a real problem exists and know how to take action to solve it. You must develop the ability to know the difference between a real problem and an imaginary one. 21. Less Stress: Stress stifles productivity. Leaders strive to create a stress-free work environment for their employees through both physical and psychological approaches. 22. Develop People from Within: The best-run companies develop their own managers from within. They rarely seek outsiders. In fact, it’s a sign of weakness when a company goes outside too often for management personnel. The morale of the company is likely to suffer. People may begin to feel threatened and think, “No matter how well I perform, an outsider will probably get the position I want.” 23. Live by the Golden Rule On and Off the Job: Don’t be a hypocrite. Live every day of the week as if it were Sunday. There’s no place for two sets of moral codes. Conduct yourself in business with the same scruples you would want your children to observe in their lives.

Shane Parrish

419,606 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

An interview by VERY DARK AND CORRUPT Wall Street Journal aired today [1] WSJ's terrible "journalists" (and I use that term lightly) made many false statements about Sarepta's worthless, dangerous drug and Vinay Prasad's firing [1,2] I explain how the FDA sausage is made in excruciating detail Buckle up To get readers up to speed -> In June, corrupt pharma company Sarepta Therapeutics paid $40,000 to lobbying group Michael Best Strategies (MBS) to deal with a problem [3] -> MBS had recently hired Chris LaCivita, who had close connections with "MAGA" influencer Laura Loomer [4] -> With stock down 88%, Sarepta needed to sell their very bad, very dangerous drug or the company would go bankrupt [5] -> After several deaths from the drug this year, FDA official Vinay Prasad said "no way" and kicked the drug to the curb [2,6] -> Sarepta panicked and paid MBS (we believe) to deal with Prasad [3,4] -> If this story is right, LaCivita recruited Laura Loomer to take down Prasad [4,7] -> Loomer said she was defending Trump, but she was lying [7] -> She was defending taxpayer-funded payouts to a worthless, corrupt company [7] -> Laura Loomer so brave A history of bad drugs and regulatory failure -> This is one of the worst pharma scandals in American history and corrupt mainstream media isn't covering it -> Sarepta has a very long, troubled history [8] -> For more than a decade, every major Sarepta FDA drug approval has required INTENSE political intervention [8,9] -> Scientists at FDA have been repeatedly overruled [8,9] -> Many scientists have resigned, very publicly, over these POLITICAL decisions, some writing scathing public criticisms of these terrible decisions [10,11] -> The most recent resignation by Vinay Prasad is not something new; it follows in a long tradition [2,10] -> In fact, standards have dramatically deteriorated since the first controversies about the company's drugs in the 2010s [8,9] -> Prasad was trying to hold the line in the face of rapidly deteriorating standards at the agency [2,6] -> For that, pharma launched a coup--a literal coup of a drug regulator [4,6] -> This is unprecedented -> Banana republic sht, unbelievably corrupt 2016: first Sarepta drug approval and the "highly unusual" decision -> The first Sarepta drug approved by FDA was called Exondys 51 [8] -> This drug was for patients with mutations in dystrophin, a muscle protein [8] -> This is a debilitating and fatal disease affecting children [8] -> Exondys 51 increased dystrophin by 0.2% of normal levels [8,12] -> Unsurprisingly, there was no good evidence the drug worked [8,12] -> Why would it? It increases the protein from zero to 1/500th of normal levels -> One reviewer wrote: "I can find no precedent of an accelerated approval for a marketing application where the effect size on the surrogate endpoint is as small as 0.3%." [12] -> The study submitted by the company included no proper control group [12] -> The techniques used were so bad not even a first-year PhD student would do a study that way -> This the level of work you would expect from a mediocre undergraduate with no guidance -> It's almost like it was so bad on purpose -> (Narrator: it was on purpose) -> Nerd time: -> One reviewer wrote: "The Western blots submitted by the applicant for Study 201 were oversaturated, unreliable, and uninterpretable." [12] -> Another wrote: "Because CDER also determined that the conditions under which the original IHC analysis was performed were inadequate, including that the reader was not masked to sequence and time, the Center requested a re-reading of the stored images by three masked pathologists under different conditions. The IHC results from the reread were not nearly as favorable, as compared to the initial IHC results reported by Sarepta." [12] -> "The lack of concordance between the IHC and the Western Blot results is 'striking'" [12] -> "Study 201/202 had fundamental flaws, including baseline biopsies from external controls who could differ in unknown ways from study subjects, Week 180 biopsies from different muscles than baseline, and potential protein degradation in stored baseline samples." [12] -> And on and on. -> FDA commissioner Robert Califf wrote at the time: the submitted study was "characterized by major flaws in the clinical study design" and "Blinded experts assembled by the FDA fundamentally debunked this study, which has yet to be retracted and continues to be cited" [9,12] -> That's right, the FDA commissioner expressed dismay that the study that the company used to gain approval hadn't yet been retracted, it was so bad [9] -> Senior FDA official Janet Woodcock decided to approve before scientific review team had even voted [9,12] -> Woodcock be like: yeah i'm going to decide before you guys can because i know what you're going to say lol -> Despite external intense pressure, FDA scientists voted against Exondys 51's efficacy [9,12] -> They then voted against its accelerated approval [9,12] -> The review team filed an appeal with FDA commissioner after "passionate" disagreement with Woodcock [9,12] -> One reviewer called Woodcock's decision "unprecedented" [12] -> In a 126-page report, FDA commissioner Califf called Woodcock's decision "highly unusual" [9] -> The FDA board wrote: "[Woodcock's] involvement here appears to have upended the typical review and decision-making process. ... Care should be taken to avoid the appearance of interfering with the integrity of scientific reviews at the lower levels of a Center." [9] -> Again, the data were unbelievably bad, literally every technique in the study was inappropriately used [12] -> I would fire an undergraduate student who did science like this, immediately -> FDA's chief scientist accused Sarepta of "serious irresponsibility" for selectively publishing only some of the data [9] -> Even Woodcock, who approved the drug, called the research "seriously deficient" [12] -> Yes, even the person who approved the drug over the heads of FDA's scientists said the research was horrible [12] -> Still, FDA tried to bury their heads in the sand and beg that, basically, Sarepta pretty please do a better job next time -> FDA commissioner: "The utmost attention should be paid to optimizing the methodological rigor of [future] trial[s]" [9] -> FDA also demanded a clinical trial "to verify the benefit" of the drug [8] -> Welp, this was in 2016 [8] -> The trial results are supposed to be available in 2026, maybe [13] -> Or maybe later, depending on how much money needs to be made first -> As an article published in Nature three years later despaired of the decision: "The approval was conditional on the company agreeing to conduct a two-year post-approval trial to show Exondys 51’s efficacy. But by August 2019, the company had yet to begin such a trial and in the meantime had profited from sales of $300 million in 2018." [13] -> If it sounds like Sarepta used political pressure to get its drug approved and then tried to avoid actually publishing the study showing it didn't work, it sounds that way because that's exactly what happened [13] -> FDA commissioner after deferring to Woodcock: "I am confident this unique situation will not set a general precedent for drug approvals under the accelerated approval pathway, as the statute and regulations are clear each situation must be evaluated on its own merits based on the totality of data and information." [9] -> This statement was profoundly naive, and the historical record bears this out [8,14] -> Three FDA scientists resigned, including the lead reviewer of the drug, understanding the grave implications of the collapse of scientific standards and where they would lead [10,11] -> One was John K. Jenkins, M.D. Director, Office of New Drugs Center for Drug Evaluation and Research/FDA [10] -> In a presentation given just before his resignation, he wrote: -> "Path taken by Sarepta NOT a good model for other development programs" [10] -> Crucially: -> "Upholding statutory standards for approval in face of hopes and desires of patients, families, sponsors, and investors is a very difficult job" [10] -> "Personal attacks on FDA reviewers creates an atmosphere of distrust and isolation rather than collaboration" [10] This brings us to WHY Sarepta's drug was approved Facebook FDA -> So why did the drug get approved? -> Basically, Sarepta propagandized extremely desperate patients [9,15] -> They used miraculous snake oil promises and patients believed them -> Remember that this is life or death for patients, and they are extremely vulnerable -> Sarepta also professionally trained some patients to give testimonials to FDA and congress [15] -> The patients then went to congressmen who don't have time to understand the science [15] -> They gave emotional stories to congressmen [15] -> The result: -> Letter from 109 House members [15] -> Letter from 24 Senate members [15] -> And a media circus documented in the New York Times [16] -> Patients screaming at scientists during meetings [9] -> 2,792 emails written to FDA urging approval [12] -> One of them: "Dear Dr. califf: How is it that everyone in and around DMD understands this simple Idea and the science geniuses at FDA don't? You stupid fckers are costing each and every DMD kids days of their lives with your Moronic Dystrophin dance. Time to get a fcking clue" [12] -> Upon approval, a journalist for Reuters wrote: "owing to pressure from patient advocates, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Monday approved a treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy even though an outside panel of experts and the agency's own reviewers questioned the drug's efficacy" [17] -> A commentary in Nature Medicine was also published called "Railroading at the FDA" [9] -> Its author wrote: "In the words of one FDA committee member, Exondys lowers the agency's evidentiary standard for drug effectiveness 'to an unprecedented nadir.'" [9] -> A highly critical commentary was also published in Science, titled "Sarepta gets an approval - Unfortunately" [18] -> The article's author pharma veteran Derek Lowe wrote: "The company... called up Duchenne-affected boys and their families to plead with the FDA, and won over Janet Woodcock, and that appears to be enough. Is this going to be the new way to get a drug approved? Run a trial in a dozen people, generate unconvincing data, and then lobby Janet Woodcock? I share the worries that this might open the floodgates, because after all, Sarepta got their drug through." [18] -> One FDA reviewer ended in an equally grim note: ". Approval of this NDA would send the signal that political pressure and even intimidation – not science – guides FDA decisions, with extremely negative consequences. The public is well aware of this development program: the meager size of the study population, the marginal (at best) effect size, the Division’s dim view of the efficacy data, and the robust activism of some members of the DMD community. Many would be amazed at an approval action, because other DMD drugs, recently turned down for approval, appeared to provide stronger evidence of efficacy. ...The ramifications here are profound. The public will perceive that it was their unprecedented lobbying efforts that made the difference and earned eteplirsen its accelerated approval. For the future, this will have the effect of strongly encouraging public activism and intimidation as a substitute for data, which is one of the worst possible consequences for communities with rare diseases. This type of activism is not what was envisioned for patient-focused drug development." [12] -> A new era was born -> Activism had replaced data -> Facebook had fried people's brains -> And now Facebook-fried brains had fried FDA too -> FDA's credibility as a regulatory agency would now be hollowed out -> FDA's Facebook age had begun -> But the worst was yet to come Sarepta approvals: 2016 to present -> Three more drugs were approved from Sarepta on the same shoddy basis, proving Califf's promises that Exondys 51 was an isolated case empty [8,14] -> But things would take a turn for the worse with Sarepta's newest drug Elevidys in 2024 [19] -> At last a rigorous clinical trial looking at actual clinical outcomes was published [19,20] -> All would be put to rest -> At long last the issue could be resolved with HARD CLINICAL DATA -> There was only one problem -> The trial failed to show any benefit according to the primary outcome [19,20] -> The surrogate biomarker of micro-dystrophin meant absolutely nothing; it wasn't actually helping patients [19,20] -> What did FDA scientists do? They voted against approval. Of course [19] -> How could they not? The drug didn't actually work in the clinical trial [19] -> It's the only thing that made sense, since FDA is a scientific agency -> AND THEY WERE OVERRULED AGAIN BY PETER MARKS [19] -> YES THAT'S RIGHT, OVERRULED YET AGAIN -> PHARMA WINS AGAIN -> HAHAHAHAHAHA PHARMA ALWAYS WINS YOU FOOLS -> What happened is that Marks crossed his eyes somewhat, trying to make the words on the page blurry -> He prayed really hard, "my god please give me a sign, something, anything, I need this for my career" -> lzzosolsolzzolzozlslzolosllslozllzlzl -> Marks was trying really hard to see SOMETHING, come on come on, give me SOMETHIGN he said -> And he said: wait, look, there are these secondary, exploratory endpoints and a two of them look pretty good, I'LL APPROVE [19,20] -> AHAHAHHAHAHA YES PHAMRA WINS AGAIN -> And Marks said, "Thank you pharma go- I mean god, not pharma god, why did I just say that, FCK" -> The trial was explicitly designed for what Marks did NOT to happen [20] -> Once the primary endpoint was not met, the secondary endpoints couldn't even be statistically tested [20] -> And the trial explicitly said that they could not be interpreted the way Marks interpreted them [20] -> They were not adjusted for multiplicity and they were, like expression of dystrophin, simply bad endpoints [20] -> These two secondary endpoints were time to rise from lying on the floor and the 10-meter walk/run tests [20] -> Subjects who received the Elevidys performed, on average, about 0.5 seconds better than placebo recipients on these tasks [20] -> However several facts must be borne in mind when interpreting these: -> 1. At the time of testing, patients receiving the drug were receiving more corticosteroids than placebo patients, biasing the results [20] -> 2. Blinding might have been broken because those receiving the drug experienced lots of nausea and vomiting from the drug (~70%) [20] -> 3. These differences were tiny and may be attributable to chance, since the natural course of the disease varies widely [20] -> Marks knows this but who cares? Pharma I mean Facebook needed to be placated Elevidys: the drug -> To understand why this is so messed up, one must understand a few things -> On a Bayesian basis, one must assume that Elevidys is harmful until proven otherwise, for two reasons: -> 1. All drugs are potentially "toxic", but some toxins heal: by default you must assume it is a toxin that does not heal because this is what is actually usually the case; you need evidence that it actually heals -> 2. Elevidys IN PARTICULAR must be assumed to be harmful until proven otherwise because of the very nature of the drug -> Let's do a breakdown of the basic science of Elevidys that supports this (Bayesian) hypothesis: -> Gene therapy that permanently integrates into human genome [21] -> Meant to replace dystrophin, the protein that these patients cannot produce themselves [21] -> Preferentially targets muscle but gets expressed everywhere [21] -> Killed three people this year [6,21] -> Costs $3.2 million per injection [21] -> Truncated version of the protein it is supposed to replace [21] -> 3X shorter than the real protein [21] -> Has to be truncated because the technology cannot create the full protein [21] -> Because it's an abnormal protein, it's foreign, so immune system attacks it [21] -> Patients injected with drug are basically given an autoimmune disease [21] -> Patients have to be given anti-inflammatories to fight the disease that the drug causes [21] -> Causes terrible muscle inflammation [21] -> Inflames the heart, heart walls thicken because of the inflammation [21] -> Blows up the liver, causes acute liver injury and death [21] Drug should actually be assumed harmful, not beneficial -> Given all of the above, since the drug failed to meet its primary endpoint, it should actually be considered harmful by default, not beneficial [19,20] -> In other words, what we would actually expect if we added more patients and did an even larger study... -> Is that the drug would do worse than placebo, i.e., patients taking the drug would do worse than those taking placebo -> Why isn't this the default interpretation? -> They are reading the study with an intervention bias -> An intervention bias is natural, which is why "do no harm" is such a central tenet of medicine -> If I may put forward a thesis: most of Vinay Prasad's 500+-paper body of work has been dedicated to demonstrating the "do no harm" principle empirically [22] -> Rose-colored glasses study interpreters are simply not applying this principle properly and are thus failing scientifically in the most fundamental way -> Incomprehensible -> Back in 2016, scientists were adamant that the approval of Sarepta's first drug indicated the profound deterioration of scientific standards [8,9] -> But this latest approval is even worse: actual clinical data is now being overruled -> No standards at all are being enforced anymore; anything can now be approved based on any evidence whatsoever -> What Vinay was trying to do was simply to stop the unrelenting downslide -> And his firing punctuated that downslide for what it was The WSJ segment -> When Elevidys was approved, former FDA chief scientist and one of the original reviewers of Sarepta's first drug Luciana Borio said: -> "I don’t know what to say. Peter Marks makes a mockery of scientific reasoning and approval standards that have served patients well over decades. This type of action also promotes the growing mistrust in scientific institutions like the FDA." [23] -> To return to this video, these two WSJ reporters show an incredible level of ignorance and arrogance -> Finley says that the drug is "clearly" beneficial by misreading the secondary endpoints, just like Marks did -> An FDA memo from last year says about these endpoints: "Under these circumstances, they are misleading and cannot guide any stakeholders—including patients, family members and caregivers, and prescribers—in making informed decisions about the potential benefit of treatment with ELEVIDYS." [20] -> It really doesn't get any clearer than that -> But these two journalists are overruling the actual scientists, just like Marks did -> One of the most incredible comments during this interview was the complaint that "90% of clinical trials fail", as if that's bad thing [1] -> It's actually a good thing; most drugs suck; failing in clinical trial actually allows us to use only the drugs that don't suck -> These people don't understand the most fundamental purpose of the clinical trial -> They think clinical trials failing is a bad thing, as if it means that patients now won't get to use a useful drug -> No, it's a good thing, because it means that patients won't be exposed unnecessarily to a useless drug that might harm them -> The level of ignorance really is unbelievable -> What's worse is that these "journalists" defend their decision -> But what they did is exploit social media hysteria caused by Laura Loomer [1,7] -> Following up on her heels with editorials, using her as pharma attack dog [1,4] -> This is a huge blow to WSJ's credibility, and they know it -> Unbelievably shameful Where do we go from here? -> The Vinay Prasad firing creates a serious crisis of credibility at FDA [2,6] -> Up to this point, we could call these approvals a difference of opinion, but as we've seen, that's a huge stretch -> But any illusion of that is now shattered: the firing shows that drug regulation is explicitly political -> Janet Woodcock: approve, keep job -> Peter Marks: approve, keep job -> Vinay Prasad: block, transparently fired -> Make a decision that is anti-pharma and lose your job: that's the message -> Who can trust any decision at FDA anymore? -> RFK Jr. and Marty Makary both stand behind Vinay Prasad [24] -> Trump went along with lockdowns, he went along with mask mandates, he went along with all of the Covid pseudoscience that he now decries -> He should reverse course and not go along with this -> Trump has created a profound crisis of credibility at FDA and needs to fix it

Kevin Bass

80,314 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

AI has changed software engineering more in the last 3 years than it has changed in the previous 30. What’s needed is not a debate about whether it’s going away—instead it’s a serious discussion about its future: What are the new primitives, techniques, and best practices for software engineering in the age of AI. That’s why I brought Scott Wu (Scott Wu) on AI & I. He’s the founder of Cognition, the company behind the world’s first autonomous AI coding agent, Devin. Cognition got to $73M ARR in less than 2 years—and they just acquired Windsurf to accelerate their growth. I had Scott on the show to talk about where the programming goes from here. We get into: - What the new tools and workflows are for AI engineers. In the near term, Scott sees software engineering defined by a spectrum of tools. At one end are AI features that speed up coding, like tab complete; at the other are agentic systems, like Devin, that can take on tasks independently. Until engineers can operate entirely at the higher layer of abstraction, he argues, both are essential. - Why Scott thinks AGI is already here. By the benchmarks of a decade ago—passing the Turing test, solving hard math problems, and operating agentically—AGI is already here. The line keeps moving, he argues, because humans constantly redefine work around what machines can’t yet do. - Why developers will turn into product architects. Scott sees the long-term future of software engineering as a steady climb up the ladder of abstraction. Just as programming went from assembly to languages like Python and JavaScript, he thinks the future is humans focusing on the product, while AI agents execute. - How Devin stacks up against Anthropic’s Claude Code. Scott credits Claude Code’s success to great product design and the models becoming capable enough to support autonomous workflows. But according to him, the CLI itself isn’t the breakthrough, it’s how a tool fits into a developer’s workflow. Claude Code’s paradigm is that the AI is you, taking the wheel of your computer, he says, while Devin is like the engineer sitting beside you: it runs in its own cloud environment, manages the repo, and improves over time at testing and refining code. This episode of Every 📧’s AI & I is a must-watch for anyone interested in the brass tacks of how AI changes the future of programming. Watch below! Timestamps: Introduction: 00:02:02 Why Scott thinks AGI is here: 00:02:32 Scott’s personal journey as a founder: 00:09:27 Why the fundamentals of computer science still matter: 00:16:55 How the future of programming will evolve: 00:22:30 A new workflow for the AI-first software engineer: 00:26:50 How Devin stacks up against Claude Code: 00:29:33 Reinforcement learning to build better coding agents: 00:40:05 What excites Scott about AI beyond Cognition: 00:50:05

Dan Shipper 📧

35,342 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten