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🇮🇷 Tehran metro's 7th repair terminal opened — repairs have successfully restored key rail links between Tehran, Tabriz & Mashhad after bridge and track damage. "Metro stations & underground facilities will be transformed into "war shelters" to protect civilians from potential resumed hostilities." — Tehran Mayor

14,110 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump says the U.S is going to “hit Iran hard,” while Tehran is warning that from now on, every American attack will be met with a response “dozens of times greater.” That's an extremely dangerous change in the rules of this war. The latest U.S strike was deliberately limited: American forces hit rocket launchers on Larak Island that CENTCOM says were preparing to deploy sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. Iran didn't respond proportionally; it launched a much larger barrage of missiles and drones toward U.S positions in the region. And that's the part that matters. Earlier in the war, Iran largely calibrated its responses because it still believed there was a deal to be made with Washington. That calculation appears to be disappearing, because Tehran believes America no longer possesses the escalation dominance it had at the beginning of the war. And Iran is now willing to prove it by deliberately responding harder than it gets hit, meaning Trump now faces a brutal dilemma. If he doesn't respond after publicly promising to “hit them hard,” Tehran can portray it as proof that American threats have lost their force. But if he does hit Iran hard, Tehran is explicitly threatening to escalate even more, and warning that no target in the region is beyond its reach. The most dangerous assumption Trump could make now is that the U.S still gets to decide where the escalation ends. Iran's telling him it has a say in that. Brandon Weichert

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump threatened to unleash the “gates of hell” against Iran, then he backed away, which in Washington may have been seen as restraint. According to Geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar, Tehran interpreted it very differently. They saw it as proof that Iran’s deterrence had worked, America’s military options were narrowing, and that the longer Iran holds out, the more leverage it gains. Pepe says that transformed Iran’s objectives. Tehran is no longer thinking only about surviving the war, lifting sanctions or securing control over the Strait of Hormuz. According to his sources, forcing the U.S to retreat from West Asia has now become a central strategic goal. Iran began this conflict trying to prevent America from imposing its will. Pepe believes it now sees an opportunity to dismantle the military system that allowed Washington to threaten it in the first place. And Tehran reportedly believes it has found the mechanism. He says Iran has replaced its previous proportional retaliation policy with a new warning: Strike one Iranian energy target, and Iran will strike ten targets across America’s regional network. The message to Gulf governments is brutal. If they help Trump attack Iran, their refineries, pipelines and export facilities will pay the price. Pepe says that threat is one reason regional leaders pushed Trump to stand down. Saudi Arabia, in particular, understands that another major escalation could devastate the infrastructure it depends on to export oil. For decades, American bases were supposed to protect Gulf allies from Iran, but now those bases are putting the countries hosting them at risk. Pepe Escobar

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🇮🇷 “The patience for a 12-day war will not be repeated. It is possible that the initiator of this war is not the USA, but someone else.” - said Ali Shamkhani, the chief advisor on political affairs to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei… Here, Iran is presumably hinting that it might be Tehran, not the US, considering the first so-called preemptive strike on US armed forces, and not the other way around… 🟧 Other important statements by Shamkhani: 📌 “Tehran will move from indirect talks with the US to direct dialogue only if the ongoing negotiations conclude successfully. Any dialogue will be strictly limited to the nuclear issue.” 🔴 In response to Khamenei’s warning that a future war will have regional consequences, Shamkhani said that a large-scale conflict will be triggered by the deployment of enemy military forces and will reach even the most distant points from which threats against Iran originate. 🔴 When asked if Israel would become a target if the US attacks Iran, Shamkhani stated that in such a scenario Washington and Israel are inseparable — “If the US attacks us, Israel will be involved in the process and we will respond accordingly.” 🟦 According to Shamkhani, although the US and Israel largely rely on air forces, Iran’s response plans are different and include all necessary capabilities to counter such attacks. 🇦🇿 If they attack us, there will be a total assault on American military assets in the Middle East… Azerbaijan will also be targeted…

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🇮🇷☪️ 2 days to the funeral of martyred Ayatollah Representatives from 100 countries will attend the farewell and funeral ceremony of the murdered leader Ali Khamenei and his family. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson on the initial public official ceremonies in Tehran: 🔸️The farewell and funeral ceremony for the body of the martyred leader is a historic event for the Iranian nation, Muslims, and all free people of the world. 🔸️From Friday morning at 8:00 AM, the tribute and farewell ceremony will be held with the participation of a large number of dignitaries and public groups, continuing until approximately 12:00 noon. 🔸️In the afternoon, from around 2:00 PM, high-ranking officials from various countries and political figures will take part in the ceremony. 🔸️We will have guests from approximately 100 countries, including political figures, heads of state, speakers of parliaments, foreign ministers, or special representatives of governments, as well as a large number of dignitaries and public groups. Main Locations & Schedule 🔸️July 4–5 (Tehran, Iran): Public farewell ceremonies at the Grand Mosalla prayer complex. 🔸️July 6 (Tehran, Iran): Main funeral procession through the capital. 🔸️July 7 (Qom, Iran): Funeral ceremonies and prayers in the holy city. 🔸️July 8 (Najaf & Karbala, Iraq): Ceremonies in both holy cities. 🔸️July 9 (Mashhad, Iran): Final burial at the Imam Reza Shrine. Officials estimate between 15 million and 20 million mourners could attend - making this the largest funeral in history.

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My interview CNN International with Rosemary Church: A. With all due respect to the emerging Iran-Oman agreement, the key question is not what Tehran and Muscat agree on. The real question is whether the Trump administration is prepared to accept the arrangement. B. The Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to fully reopen unless Washington accepts a framework that gives Iran at least some role, and therefore some degree of leverage, over what happens in the Strait. That may be uncomfortable for the United States, but it is increasingly the strategic reality it has to confront. C. If Washington rejects the emerging arrangement, the risk of escalation will rise significantly. Iranian officials have made clear that Tehran will not indefinitely accept a situation in which other Gulf producers continue exporting oil while Iranian exports remain constrained. Iran may be under considerable economic pressure, but that does not mean it will simply absorb that pressure without responding. D. Oil prices are currently benefiting in part from American signals that Washington does not want to return to a major military confrontation. But avoiding war is not a unilateral decision. It takes two sides to prevent escalation. If the United States rejects the diplomatic framework being developed by Oman and Iran, Washington could still find itself drawn back into a confrontation it clearly prefers to avoid. E. That is also why the recent regional diplomatic activity matters, including the visits by Pakistan's military leadership and the Qatari prime minister. Regional actors understand how unstable the current situation is and are trying to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran before the escalation cycle resumes. F. On the nuclear issue, Iran is using the return of international inspectors as leverage against both Washington and Israel. For that reason, I would be very surprised to see meaningful IAEA access restored before Tehran receives significant sanctions relief from the United States. G. Until then, the United States and Israel will have to rely heavily on their own intelligence capabilities to understand what is happening at Iran's nuclear sites. And that matters because there are indications of activity at some of these locations, including developments around the so-called Pickaxe Mountain site. The longer inspectors remain outside Iran, the greater the uncertainty surrounding the actual status and direction of the Iranian nuclear program. #IranWar‌

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