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TESLA'S CASHFLOW FIREWORK Boom! Tesla’s igniting the cash flow chart for pure EV makers since day one! Everyone else? Deep in the red. The fireworks show: •⁠ ⁠Tesla: Lone wolf above the line, raking in $16.1 billion. •⁠ ⁠Lucid: Down with a staggering $12.4 billion. •⁠ ⁠Ford: A whopping...

121,165 views • 1 year ago •via X (Twitter)

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The world just paid $2 trillion for a rocket company that lost $4.9 billion last year. And the rockets are not why it lost the money. They are the only part making any. SpaceX went public Friday, the largest IPO in history. Up 19%, a $2 trillion valuation, Elon Musk the first trillionaire. Then you open the filing. Three businesses sit inside it. Starlink, the satellites, brought in $11.4 billion, 61% of all revenue, and $4.4 billion in profit. It is the only piece that earns a dollar. The rockets that land themselves run a small loss reinvesting in Starship. And the AI arm, Grok plus the app once called Twitter, folded in this February, lost $6.4 billion in a single year on $12.7 billion of spending. Read that again. The satellites pay for everything. The AI loses more than the satellites make. And the AI is the part the market fell in love with. It gets bolder. The prospectus claims a total market of $28.5 trillion, the largest any company has ever put in a filing. Larger than the GDP of the United States. That is the number underwriting a $2 trillion price tag built on a division bleeding $6 billion a year. Now the structure. About 4% of the company trades. That sliver sets the price for all of it. Musk is locked up for 366 days and holds roughly 80% of the votes. The public bought a company they cannot steer, priced on the one segment losing the most. This is the whole year in one ticker. The profit is satellites. The story is AI. The market bought the story. The rockets were never the risk. The risk is a $2 trillion price resting on the one bet that has yet to make a cent.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

721,719 views • 1 month ago

Donald Trump just claimed again that the US donated 350 Billion dollars to Ukraine. You are being lied to by your sitting President on the United States of America. Let’s break this down with the facts rather than these random numbers Donnie is trying to sell you after finishing his nap. Independent tracking by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimated that between January 24, 2022 and June 30, 2025, U.S committed aid to Ukraine amounted to about $134 billion, not $350 billion….it gets better. Already a $166 Billion dollar difference than what Trump claims. Please understand committed and allocated isn’t the same as what has actually been delivered. 56% ($74.9 billion USD) of all funds “allocated not supplied” were for weapons. HOWEVER the $74.9 of weapons (Allocated and not necessarily all provided) were independently evaluated and subsequently massively overvalued by the US Government. The True cost of lethal aid was predicted to cost around $18.3 billion even by United States weapons pricing. One reason: when equipment is drawn from existing U.S. inventories “drawdown”, the official accounting often uses replacement-cost valuations, rather than the original (or depreciated) cost. To put it plainly, if you give Ukraine one air defense system, you account for the cost of a brand new air defense system to take its place not for the cost of the 45 year old system that was handed over. Many of the weapons provided to Ukraine was soon to be destroyed by the US forces or decommissioned. ALSO it’s important to take note as we all know the American arms industry massively overvalues the cost of all system due to its industry. America prices its systems at anything from 30-100% higher than the cost of European equivalents with the same capabilities. The true value of these weapons could have been anything from $5.49 billion-$18.3 Billion. Even with a significantly lower number of this, Independent analysts suggested that a large share perhaps 60% or more of the nominal military-aid dollar amount may effectively stay within U.S. defense industry…..60%! Out of aid provided $54 Billions dollars was Financial aid consisting of grants, loans, budget support. Of the US $54.0 billion in U.S. financial-aid allocations for that period, about US $19.3 billion was provided as loans, while roughly US $29.7 billion was given as grants. 🚨🚨That means approximately 39–40% of the U.S. financial aid during that time was structured as loans or other repayable/concessional financing.🚨🚨 The US $3.4 Billion in Humanitarian aid. Here is another kicker. After everything I have just said. According to United states press briefings: the U.S. had only delivered around 83% of promised ammunition, about 67% of pledged air-defence systems, and roughly 60% of committed bombs, artillery rounds, other munitions. $5.49 billion-$18.3 Billion $29.7 billion $3.4 Billion That $350 Billion is looking more like it was 38.59- 51.4 billion to me Donnie. And it’s a funny number that. An estimated $30–60 billion dollars was spent by Americans allies fighting alongside the US after 9/11. This included Ukraine. We never once complained about this loss or the lives we lost. Absolutely shameful.

Bricktop_NAFO

106,395 views • 7 months ago

I designed the WLFI governance vote. You may remember me. Last month I built the freeze function. The one where a single anonymous wallet can lock any token holder's assets at any time for any reason without notice or appeal. Justin Sun called it a backdoor. We called it compliance. We sued him. He sued us back. One billion dollars. His lawyers filed on April 22nd. That was phase one. Individual control. One wallet. One victim. One freeze. Phase two is collective. I needed a mechanism that would extract consent from 18,000 holders simultaneously, without anyone afterward claiming they didn't agree, without anyone pointing to a single moment when force was applied, and without anyone identifying a perpetrator, because the perpetrator would be the architecture itself. The legal team said this was important. As mentioned, I've already designed it. They asked what I called it. I said governance. We submitted 62.3 billion tokens to a ballot. The proposal: release all vesting schedules. Early supporters receive their 17 billion on a two-year cliff, with a two-year vest. Founders receive their 45.2 billion on a two-year cliff plus three-year vest with a ten percent burn. The balloting mechanism is elegant. If you accept, your holdings will be released on the published schedule. If you decline, your holdings remain frozen. Indefinitely. No timeline. No appeals process. No alternative proposal. No counteroffer. No exit. I presented this to the governance committee. Three people. All founders. They approved it in eleven minutes. I timed it because I was curious. Eleven minutes to design consent for sixty-two billion tokens. That's due diligence. 99.5% accepted. I am told this represents overwhelming community consensus. I designed the mechanism where declining means your money stays frozen forever. I am told the 99.5% approval rate proves the community supports us. Those are both true. They are also the same sentence. I put both in the press release. Four wallets controlled 40% of the total ballot. One address held 13%. Quorum required one billion. The largest participant exceeded quorum alone. We set the threshold. We also hold the addresses. The token was $0.23 in January. It trades at eight cents. Sixty-five percent decline. The investors voted to unlock assets worth one-third of what they paid. But they voted yes because the alternative was those assets staying locked forever at one-third of what they paid. I designed both options. One is loss. The other is permanent loss. They chose loss. That's participation. On the governance forum, one holder wrote: "There is no democracy. The system is a joke." Another wrote: "I'm going to put these bastards in jail." A third posted a single word: "WTF." All three accepted the proposal. I verified their wallet signatures personally. The one who promised jail voted yes fourteen minutes after his post. I have the timestamp. I keep all the timestamps. We burned 4.5 billion from the founder pool. Ten percent of our allocation. The press release said meaningful sacrifice. The communications team wanted unprecedented sacrifice. I suggested meaningful. Unprecedented implies it won't happen again. Meaningful implies nothing. Our remaining allocation after the burn. Forty point seven billion at eight cents. Three point two billion dollars. We sacrificed $360 million in locked, unsellable supply. We retained $3.2 billion that now releases on schedule. The ratio of sacrifice to retention is 1:9. I call that generosity. The press release called it alignment with the community. The community had no choice but to align back. That's sacrifice. The investors paid between $0.015 and $0.05 per token. At eight cents, some are technically in profit, sixty to four hundred percent above their entry, and they won't file lawsuits because you don't sue when you're up and because the legal costs would exceed their holdings and because by the time discovery begins the token will trade at fractions of a cent and there will be nothing to recover from anyone. They will also sell the moment their tokens unlock. All of them. Simultaneously. Which will push the price below five cents. Which means nobody is in profit. Which means nobody files lawsuits. Because there is nothing left to recover. I designed that sequence too. That's vesting. Phase one takes one wallet at a time. Phase two captures 18,000 addresses simultaneously, each of them clicking yes on the identical ballot under the identical terms I wrote, in language simple enough for a compliance officer to approve and opaque enough for a retail buyer to mistake for democracy. Same coercion. Different magnitude. Both listed under governance on the project website. Sun's billion-dollar complaint characterizes the freeze function as "a unilateral deprivation of property rights." The ballot proves otherwise. It was not unilateral. We asked. Ninety-nine point five percent said yes. Under the specific condition that saying no meant keeping nothing. That's consensus.

Peter Girnus 🦅

32,555 views • 3 months ago

Is Michael Saylor about to get a margin call? No. And the reason is more interesting than the rumor, because what he built instead may be harder to escape than one. A margin call needs a lender who can seize collateral when the price drops. Strategy has none. Its $6.7 billion in debt is convertible notes, the largest tranche due in 2029, with no loan-to-value trigger and no clause that lets anyone take a coin because Bitcoin fell. Saylor learned that in 2022, when he did have a collateralized loan and sweated a liquidation price, then rebuilt the structure so it could never happen again. On the literal question he is right, and the people calling for his liquidation this week do not understand what they see. But killing the fast death created a slow one almost nobody is pricing. To fund his buying, Saylor issued a mountain of perpetual preferred stock that pays a fixed dividend forever, near 11.5 percent, no matter where Bitcoin trades. That annual bill quadrupled from about $300 million in January to roughly $1.2 billion now, while the cash reserve that pays it fell 38 percent this year to near $1.4 billion, after the company spent $1.5 billion in May retiring debt. Put those two numbers together and you get the figure that actually matters, and it is not a Bitcoin price. It is a countdown. Dividend coverage, the time the cash can keep paying that bill, has collapsed from more than seven years in early 2026 to between ten and fourteen months, depending on whose math you use. Months, not years. The market is already pricing it, just not where the rumor is looking. That preferred stock is engineered to sit at $100. Last week it cracked to $82.50, a record 17.5 percent below par. That discount is investors quietly clocking the strain while the timeline screams about a margin call that cannot happen. There is a clean way out, and it is the one door the structure was built to keep shut. Restoring a safe two years of coverage takes about $2.8 billion, roughly double what Strategy holds, and the fastest path there is to sell Bitcoin. But selling crystallizes a $10.6 billion loss, breaks the never-sell promise that gives the stock its premium, and bleeds the very asset the machine exists to hoard. The exit and the wound are the same cut. He already brushed it, selling 32 coins on June 1 to cover a payment. Thirty-two against more than 847,000 is a rounding error in size and an earthquake in meaning, because the company that swore it would never sell, sold, to pay a dividend. And there is a second trigger almost no one has read, buried in the fine print. If Saylor ever simply skips a preferred payment to save cash, the missed amount compounds, the senior layer can ratchet its rate higher, a senior miss freezes payments to every junior layer beneath it, and after enough missed quarters those preferred holders can start taking board seats. No one seizes a coin. But control begins migrating to the people he owes. The clock does not just run down. It hands away the keys at the end. So the honest verdict is the one neither side is shouting. There is no margin call and no imminent bankruptcy. The structure protects him exactly as designed. What it cannot protect him from is a fixed bill that grows while the cash shrinks, where every exit deepens the hole. Sell Bitcoin and break the story. Issue stock into a price near its lowest since 2024 and punish your holders. Skip the dividend and start losing the company by the boardroom. Saylor did not escape the margin call. He traded a cliff for a clock. A cliff takes you in an afternoon and a stranger pulls the trigger. This clock takes months, and at the end the trigger is pulled by the only two forces he swore would never touch it, his own hand, or the people he owes. The rumor asks whether someone is about to call his loan. The real question is how many months he can keep paying before he has to sell the dream, dilute the believers, or hand over the board to keep the lights on.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

58,542 views • 1 month ago

JUST IN: Bank of America just told its clients to take profits. About 70% of its bear-market signals are flashing, a level it typically reaches only near market tops. Weeks earlier, BofA's own fund manager survey showed the largest one-month jump into stocks ever recorded, with cash down to 3.9%, under the 4% line the bank treats as a sell signal. Read those together. Investors made their biggest dash into equities in the survey's history at almost the exact moment BofA's own indicators say the top is near. But the number that should actually stop you is buried in the note, and almost nobody is quoting it. The companies driving this entire rally, the AI hyperscalers, are on track to spend nearly 100% of their operating cash flow on capex by year-end. In 2023 that figure was 40%. Sit with that. Big tech used to throw off cash and hand it back through buybacks, which lifted the stocks. Now it is pouring almost every dollar it generates into chips and data centers. BofA notes buybacks have slowed and cash conversion has flat-lined. The engine of the rally is consuming the fuel that powered the stocks. It is the same $725 billion build that companies are now blaming for layoffs. The whole market is priced on one bet, and that bet has grown large enough to eat the cash that used to support the share prices. This is not a crash call. BofA's year-end target is 7,100, about 4% below today, and the median outcome after this cash signal since 2011 has been a 1% dip, not a collapse. The posts screaming sell everything are wrong. The real message is quieter. You are being paid less and less to stay, while the engine runs hotter and hotter.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

17,235 views • 1 month ago

Despite the UFC’s financial success, ZERO MMA fighters made Sportico’s 2024 Top 100 Highest-Paid Athletes list, while six boxers did: 3: Tyson Fury - $147M 7: Oleksandr Usyk - $122M 20: Canelo Alvarez - $73M 30: Anthony Joshua - $60M 52: Jake Paul - $48M 81: Naoya Inoue $42M (All fought twice in 2024, except Jake Paul, who fought three times.) Every UFC post-fight press conference begins with Dana White boasting about broken gate record, arena records, and others. Dana often compares the UFC to the NFL, NBA, and soccer, and they certainly have grown exponentially, but this is where the UFC truly differs. So, how is Alex Pereira not on the list after his massively impressive 2024? As one of the UFC’s biggest stars, Light Heavyweight Champion Pereira fought three times in 2024, including short-notice fights, saving and headlining some of the year’s biggest events, like UFC 300—yet he didn’t make the list. Meanwhile, NFL quarterback Daniel Jones landed the 100th spot, earning $37.5 million in salary and endorsements. It’s not breaking news that UFC/MMA fighters don’t earn as well as athletes in other sports, but it’s always interesting to see these annual lists considering the UFC had yet another record-breaking year financially in 2024. UFC 306 at The Sphere alone set multiple records, including the highest gate in UFC history at $21,829,245, surpassing UFC 205. Next week, TKO Group will release its full 2024 financial results, but in August 2024 they had raised their revenue forecast to $2.745 billion up from the previous estimate of $2.685 billion, with an expected EBITDA of $1.22 billion - $1.24 billion. The UFC is exceeding revenue expectations, reinforcing their financial and market dominance which definitely benefits TKO’s investors and stakeholders, but does it truly trickle down to the fighters? It’s a pivotal time for the UFC and the fighters as the UFC is in line for a new broadcast deal that will likely be worth over $1 billion per year. Ariel Helwani and his team were asked about the 2024 Top 100 Highest-Paid Athletes list and it is definitely worth a listen. Full top 100:

AFeldmanMMA

56,827 views • 1 year ago