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Tesla’s FSD technology will drastically reduce accidents, making Tesla Insurance a sleeping giant in their business model. By collecting cash premiums upfront and benefiting from fewer claims over time as the tech improves, Tesla can reinvest the capital more effectively. I foresee a future where Warren Buffett offloads his...

58,149 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr •via X (Twitter)

11 Kommentare

Profilbild von Alexander Groisman
Alexander Groismanvor 1 Jahr

A day will likely come when insurance costs for non-FSD cars will be so high compared to autonomous vehicles that human driving will no longer be practical

Profilbild von The Information
The Informationvor 1 Jahr

Elon Musk claims to have finished a 100,000-strong H100 cluster in four months. How likely is that?

Profilbild von Chris Wright
Chris Wrightvor 1 Jahr

I think you’re missing a key point that destroys your premise - why should anyone pay for insurance if Tesla’s FSD software has complete control? Tesla will have to insure themselves for any accident involving Level 5 autonomy.

Profilbild von Kip Herriage
Kip Herriagevor 1 Jahr

Exactly right. Mainstream insurance is going to suffer greatly because of Tesla autonomous. Good riddance.

Profilbild von Corlexys
Corlexysvor 1 Jahr

The FSD statistics and infos for 2024 are just highly impressive - and similarly convincing

Profilbild von ivan ramos
ivan ramosvor 1 Jahr

Speaking from experience (Ex-GEICO here), Teslas technology and data availability to more accurately price based on driving habits is second to none. Progressive for the longest time was the leader here data wise since the early 2010’s since they had a device you can place in the car to track driver habits, GEICO just recently (within the last 5 years) started tracking through their app (which you also had to opt into). The insurance companies strive to make 5 cents on the dollar and are mightily struggling with producing accurate rates. Tesla is going to be the clear winner on the insurance front AND because of FSD. I think it will greatly reduce the need for a third party insurance company (like progressive or geico). Much like legacy auto manufacturers, legacy insurance providers don’t know what to do here or how to pivot their business model.

Profilbild von Corlexys
Corlexysvor 1 Jahr

Data never lies - the FSD statistics speaks for itself. We need FSD in the US and EU 👍🏻

Profilbild von Felix Zaslavskiy
Felix Zaslavskiyvor 1 Jahr

That fatality per 100 million mile stats. I am not sure anyone died yet driving on FSD. We don't have official stats on that yet.

Profilbild von Chase
Chasevor 1 Jahr

Who doesn’t like less accidents, less hospital bills, less calls to mom and dad telling them you wrecked your car. FSD and Optimus is a multi billionaire dollar operation ALONE Invest in $TSLA

Profilbild von 🔥 CEO Branding Expert
🔥 CEO Branding Expertvor 1 Jahr

Clever business model I hadn’t thought of it. It will do really well if it has Warren Buffett’s endorsement, you can expect great things.

Profilbild von Palmview Capital
Palmview Capitalvor 1 Jahr

FSD/Self driving will absolutely affect insurance rates & premiums

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If insurance companies don’t adapt to Tesla FSD, they’re going to have a real problem. In 2024 at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Warren Buffett got asked, “Assuming Elon delivers on his fully autonomous driving goal. Elon said, if you’ve got at scale, a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has half the accident rate of a human driven car, I think that’s difficult to ignore. Assuming Elon succeeds in reducing accidents by 50% vs human drivers, wouldn’t auto insurance rates fall to reflect the reduced underwriting risks, thereby adversely impacting Geico’s revenues and float and perhaps margins, too?” His main response was, “Well, let’s just take the extreme example. Let’s say there are only going to be 3 accidents in the U.S. next year for some crazy reason… anything that reduces accidents is going to reduce costs… If accidents get reduced 50%, it’s going to be good for society and it’s going to be bad for insurance companies’ volume… but good for society is what we’re looking for.” I’ve followed Tesla closely for years and now the proof is impossible to ignore. Profiting from insurance is built on risk and FSD is systematically removing it. FSD has now crossed the data threshold that insurers can’t ignore. By 2026, Tesla FSD has logged over 10B+ real world miles from real human behavior, real streets, real weather, real chaos, and it’s materially more data than ANY company in the world has today. Tesla’s own safety reports show it clearly: • Human driven U.S. average: ~1M miles per accident • Tesla Autopilot: ~4.5M miles per accident • Tesla FSD engaged: ~7.5M miles per accident That’s a 7.5x safety improvement over human driving! If the risk is 7.5x lower, and your premiums you’re charging customers don’t change, something is wrong. Insurance pricing is supposed to reflect this risk. This is why today’s Lemonade announcement is a wake up call to insurance providers. When Lemonade announced it’s offering a 50% insurance discount when FSD is steering, they’re reacting to Tesla FSD data. Fewer crashes results in fewer payouts, period. This is what adaptive insurance looks like and thus why Tesla & Lemonade insurance has an advantage. They are adapting to real FSD data and real time risk, and adjusting the prices. All while traditional insurance companies are still using broad historical averages, falling behind and losing customers. Companies like GEICO, State Farm, and Allstate were built for a world where humans are driving, risk is random, and prices update slowly. I believe this era of insurance is ending. Even Warren admitted it in this video, saying cutting accidents in half is great for society, but BAD for insurance volume. Bc less risk means lower premiums and lower premiums mean less float and less float is the core of traditional insurance profits! If FSD adoption hits even 50% of Tesla’s fleet, I bet accident rates could drop 30-50% industry wide. That alone puts massive pressure on a ~$300B U.S. auto insurance market today. This is also why I believe Tesla insurance has a MAJOR advantage. Your premium is solely based on data. It uses real time vehicle telemetry, scores you based on actual driving behavior, and rewards your FSD usage directly and right away. In places like California, Tesla Insurance premiums for FSD users are already 20-30% cheaper than competitors. In some cases, safe drivers see up to 60% discounts. And in Texas, claims for FSD users are 40% lower than non-FSD drivers. The long term outcome is becoming obvious to me. Insurance companies that DO NOT adapt prices dynamically, use real time data, and recognize FSD’s safety advantage will most likely lose their best customers to companies that do. For Tesla owners, this is great news bc safer driving, esp using FSD will result in cheaper insurance, but for legacy insurers, this is an existential moment. You either adapt or risk getting left behind.

Teslaconomics

140,963 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Whenever I tell people when you buy a Tesla, make sure you eat the cost and buy FSD outright, a majority of people always tell me “FSD is too expensive at $8,000,” without actually looking at the data and numbers behind the true value of FSD. Well, I did. Back in 2019, Elon explained the Robotaxi economics very clearly. “What would be the probable gross profit from a single Robotaxi? We think probably something on the order of $30,000 per year.” BTW, this number also came from conservative assumptions. • ~90,000 miles per year • ~50% utilization (half the miles are non-revenue) • Operating cost around $0.18 per mile (fyi, gas cars are closer to $0.60!) • Tesla takes 25-30% of the revenue • Robotaxi designed to last ~1 million miles So after costs, after Tesla’s cut, and after conservative usage, the estimate still came out to $30,000 per year from a single Robotaxi. So let me do the simple math for you. If a Robotaxi generates $30,000 per year, and you assume just 10 years of useful Robotaxi life, even though the car is going to be designed for more: 1/ $30,000 × 10 years = $300,000 Now, let’s cut that number by 50% for uncertainty, downtime, or slower rollout… I’m being conservative here. 2/ $300,000 ÷ 2 = $150,000 That means the FSD value is NOT $8,000. It’s six figures! This is why every Tesla owner should buy FSD outright right now! And is also the reason why Tesla is ending this option in February imo. You see, this is what happens when you see FSD as an income generating business, instead of just a feature. FSD is SIGNIFICANTLY undervalued. And whenever I tell people that I’m going to be the biggest Tesla Robotaxi fleet operator one day and show the world how much $ I’m making for each Robotaxi in operation, they all still laugh at me in disbelief. (I hope Elon and Tesla will let me be one of the first owners when the time comes… 🤞) But I also know that people always doubted me my whole life… until things actually became real. That’s why I’ve never seen my Tesla as just a car that depreciates like other non-Teslas. It’s the exact opposite. And one day, when these cars are driving themselves and generating $ income for me while I’m sleeping, all of the doubters will become silent. Mark my words.

Teslaconomics

112,667 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten