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1,346,822 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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the model in that clip has no good signal in it. it still put up +17% against the index's +5% the formula is doing the work R(t) = (Rmax / 7) · Σ s_i(t) seven separate signals, each scored, averaged into one number that's the entire model. no genius indicator anywhere in it and that's the part retail keeps missing retail hunts for the one signal that works a desk assumes every individual signal is weak and builds around that assumption here's why that assumption wins take N signals, each with sharpe s, and average them if they're uncorrelated, the combined sharpe is: s · √N seven weak signals at sharpe 0.3 each 0.3 × √7 = 0.79 nothing in that stack survives a backtest alone. together they clear the bar the noise in each signal is independent, so averaging cancels it the edge in each points the same way, so averaging keeps it that asymmetry is the whole mechanism but there's a catch, and it's the one that kills retail attempts correlation. the real formula is: s · √( N / (1 + (N−1)ρ) ) at ρ = 0.5 those same seven signals give: 0.3 × √(7 / 4) = 0.40 half the benefit, gone seven versions of momentum with different lookbacks aren't seven signals. they're one signal, repeated so the search isn't for better signals it's for signals that are wrong at different times grinold formalized this in 1989. the fundamental law of active management: IR = IC × √breadth skill per bet times the square root of how many independent bets you take you can be barely right, as long as you're barely right about many uncorrelated things renaissance doesn't run one model. it runs thousands of weak ones that's not a compromise. that's the design retail asks "is this signal good enough to trade" a desk asks "what does this add that i don't already have" the math is public. grinold's paper, every portfolio theory textbook the correlation matrix that tells you whether your signals are actually distinct is three lines of python they weren't finding better signals they were finding signals that disagree full breakdown in the article below

delost

28,032 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Agge shame, you pathetic race-baiting grievance merchant, dredging up apartheid ghosts from over three decades ago like a jilted and bitter ex who can't move on. Brilliant observation, you racist you. "The sand is African sand," genius. Next you'll tell us the ocean is wet and the sky is blue. Newsflash‼️ Those "WHITES ONLY" signs came down in 1989, before most of your TikTok warriors were even born. Beaches have been open to everyone since then, but you do you, and keep pretending it's 1953 to fuel your victim drama. "Go in numbers. Occupy the scenery. Fill the frame." Translation: Swarm the beaches like locusts, blast your vuvuzelas and boomboxes at max volume, scatter your rubbish everywhere, and turn paradise into a chaotic township picnic, boozing and crapping all over the place, all while calling it "revolutionary." Your "joy" is everyone else's nightmare; overcrowded, littered, noisy hellholes where families can't relax because entitled mobs think "reclaiming" means ruining it for others. We've seen it all. Pristine spots trashed, crime spiking, locals fleeing. That's not power; that's just being the asshole at the party no one invited. "Land that was stolen?" Aaaaah, again with the selective history lesson. Meanwhile, under black governance for 30+ years, beaches are filthier than ever thanks to ANC/EFF incompetence; sewage spills closing Durban spots, E. coli nightmares because your leaders can't fix basic infrastructure. But nah, blame "white racists" hiding under the sand dunes. Real South Africans just want clean, safe beaches without your dramatic invasions turning them into no-go zones. Your "revolution" is just entitlement wrapped in resentment, and it's as boring as your recycled slogans.

Alice VL

59,084 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

🚨 THE NEXT MONETARY WAR BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CHINA HAS ALREADY STARTED THE U.S. IS BETTING ON DIGITAL DOLLARS (STABLECOINS) - CHINA IS BETTING ON PHYSICAL GOLD. Trump and the Treasury have now said the quiet part out loud. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: "We will keep the dollar as the world's reserve currency and will use stablecoins to do it." Trump's January 2025 order put dollar-backed stablecoins at the center of U.S. policy. The GENIUS Act then formalized the structure: compliant stablecoins must be backed 1-for-1 by cash, T-bills, and Treasury repos. THAT'S THE KEY. AMERICA CAN'T PRINT GOLD. BUT IT CAN CREATE NEW DEMAND FOR ITS OWN DEBT. Here's how it works: Billions of people who may never open a U.S. bank account can still hold a digital dollar token. As stablecoin supply grows, issuers need more reserve assets - including short-term Treasuries. Dollar demand gets pushed onto crypto rails, helping extend the reach of the dollar beyond the traditional banking system. IT'S NOT A GOLD STANDARD. IT'S CLOSER TO A DIGITAL T-BILL STANDARD WRAPPED IN CRYPTO. Meanwhile, China is moving in the opposite direction. The PBOC just posted its 21st straight month of gold buying. Official holdings: ~2,366 tonnes. They're accumulating physical metal at a remarkable pace. Hong Kong has already opened the first offshore Shanghai Gold Exchange vault. The city is targeting 2,000+ tonnes of storage, while additional vault locations are being explored in Singapore, Dubai, Riyadh, and Moscow. The idea is simple: hold yuan, then convert it into gold that can actually be delivered. Physical collateral. Offshore vaults. Yuan-linked settlement backed by metal rather than promises. TWO DIFFERENT STRATEGIES. ONE BIG PROBLEM. At the same time, the London Metal Exchange's Treasury chief has moved to a crypto firm focused on tokenized commodities - while China continues building out a yuan-gold settlement network. ONE SIDE IS DIGITIZING THE DEBT - THE OTHER IS ACCUMULATING THE METAL. The real question is which system the rest of the world will trust more when the next major shock arrives!👀

DANNY

207,616 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce