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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The 30-year Treasury yield just hit its highest point since 2007, and everyone remembers what came after that. Economist Philip Pilkington says the financial system is far shakier than people think, with the AI bubble wobbling and private equity locked up in assets it cannot sell. "If people...

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Philip Pilkington says the Treasury stepped into the bond market to push long-term yields lower. It worked for about a day. Then yields rose again. The problem is bigger than one failed intervention. The Treasury wants cheaper long-term borrowing, while the Fed is reluctant to cut rates because inflation remains above target. Meanwhile, Japan may be forced to sell more U.S. Treasuries, and the ECB is openly warning that the AI boom looks like a bubble. Different institutions. Different incentives. One increasingly stressed financial system. Pilkington's phrase for it is clean and simple: They're fighting gravity. Philip Pilkington
3:40

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Philip Pilkington says the Treasury stepped into the bond market to push long-term yields lower. It worked for about a day. Then yields rose again. The problem is bigger than one failed intervention. The Treasury wants cheaper long-term borrowing, while the Fed is reluctant to cut rates because inflation remains above target. Meanwhile, Japan may be forced to sell more U.S. Treasuries, and the ECB is openly warning that the AI boom looks like a bubble. Different institutions. Different incentives. One increasingly stressed financial system. Pilkington's phrase for it is clean and simple: They're fighting gravity. Philip Pilkington

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87,510 views โ€ข 28 days ago

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Washington is propping up Japan to stop it from dumping $1.1 trillion in US Treasury bonds. Economist Philip Pilkington suggested that the vulnerability of the Japanese Yen is a sign of an impending disaster for the Eurodollar system. "The Americans are engaged in a bailout of Japan and people aren't really focused on that with the Middle East on fire." Philip Pilkington
1:39

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Washington is propping up Japan to stop it from dumping $1.1 trillion in US Treasury bonds. Economist Philip Pilkington suggested that the vulnerability of the Japanese Yen is a sign of an impending disaster for the Eurodollar system. "The Americans are engaged in a bailout of Japan and people aren't really focused on that with the Middle East on fire." Philip Pilkington

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96,867 views โ€ข 1 month ago

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Economist Philip Pilkington says the Treasury intervened directly in the bond market as interest rates approached what he calls a potential crisis point. The problem? The Fed is supposed to control monetary conditions. The Treasury is now effectively stepping into that territory by issuing short-term debt and using the proceeds to buy longer-term bonds. Pilkington's argument is not that the move was illegal. It's that the optics are terrible. If the Treasury has to intervene because rates are spiraling, while simultaneously appearing to challenge the Fed's role, markets can start asking a much bigger question: Who is actually in control of U.S. financial policy? Philip Pilkington
3:32

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Economist Philip Pilkington says the Treasury intervened directly in the bond market as interest rates approached what he calls a potential crisis point. The problem? The Fed is supposed to control monetary conditions. The Treasury is now effectively stepping into that territory by issuing short-term debt and using the proceeds to buy longer-term bonds. Pilkington's argument is not that the move was illegal. It's that the optics are terrible. If the Treasury has to intervene because rates are spiraling, while simultaneously appearing to challenge the Fed's role, markets can start asking a much bigger question: Who is actually in control of U.S. financial policy? Philip Pilkington

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65,356 views โ€ข 28 days ago

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ A quarter of the American standard of living rests on foreigners accepting paper for real goods. Economist Philip Pilkington has modeled what dollar hegemony actually buys, and the number is larger than most Americans would guess: "It's probably about 25 or 30%." Sterling and the Spanish system before it were gold-backed, so no country could run endless deficits without someone calling in the metal. Philip says the 30-year yields are screaming that this arrangement, unique in recorded history, is ending. George Gammon Philip Pilkington
2:26

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ A quarter of the American standard of living rests on foreigners accepting paper for real goods. Economist Philip Pilkington has modeled what dollar hegemony actually buys, and the number is larger than most Americans would guess: "It's probably about 25 or 30%." Sterling and the Spanish system before it were gold-backed, so no country could run endless deficits without someone calling in the metal. Philip says the 30-year yields are screaming that this arrangement, unique in recorded history, is ending. George Gammon Philip Pilkington

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43,803 views โ€ข 1 month ago

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Everyone knows the dollar system can be turned against them, and nobody is leaving. George Gammon compares it to the phone in your pocket that spies on you constantly, or the platform that once deleted his entire channel and still gets his uploads: "It has ten times the utility as the second best." Philip Pilkington points to Bretton Woods as what made the dollar hegemonic in the first place, while George's catalyst for change is simpler: another economy has to get much bigger than America's. George Gammon Philip Pilkington
3:51

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Everyone knows the dollar system can be turned against them, and nobody is leaving. George Gammon compares it to the phone in your pocket that spies on you constantly, or the platform that once deleted his entire channel and still gets his uploads: "It has ten times the utility as the second best." Philip Pilkington points to Bretton Woods as what made the dollar hegemonic in the first place, while George's catalyst for change is simpler: another economy has to get much bigger than America's. George Gammon Philip Pilkington

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41,034 views โ€ข 1 month ago

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The Iranian rial is approaching 2 million to the dollar, and the financial system holding this war together is cracking in ways that have nothing to do with Iran. Economist Philip Pilkington joins me to break down what is actually happening beneath the headlines: Primary sanctions on Iran are already maxed out, having been at effective maximum pressure since 2012, which is why the real question is secondary sanctions and whether Trump will actually impose them on China. If he does, China will not comply, because folding on Iran would destroy their entire credibility as an alternative to the American-led order. And the economic blowback on the U.S. would be SEVERE: rare earths cut off, the AI bubble popped, treasury markets further destabilized... The rial at 2 million to the dollar is a SYMPTOM. The 'disease' is a global financial system under simultaneous pressure from war, sanctions, currency crises, and a U.S. bond market nobody fully controls anymore. Pleasure as always, Philip Pilkington
48:47

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The Iranian rial is approaching 2 million to the dollar, and the financial system holding this war together is cracking in ways that have nothing to do with Iran. Economist Philip Pilkington joins me to break down what is actually happening beneath the headlines: Primary sanctions on Iran are already maxed out, having been at effective maximum pressure since 2012, which is why the real question is secondary sanctions and whether Trump will actually impose them on China. If he does, China will not comply, because folding on Iran would destroy their entire credibility as an alternative to the American-led order. And the economic blowback on the U.S. would be SEVERE: rare earths cut off, the AI bubble popped, treasury markets further destabilized... The rial at 2 million to the dollar is a SYMPTOM. The 'disease' is a global financial system under simultaneous pressure from war, sanctions, currency crises, and a U.S. bond market nobody fully controls anymore. Pleasure as always, Philip Pilkington

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331,183 views โ€ข 25 days ago

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France sent a warship across the Atlantic to collect its gold, and after that, nobody has really known what's inside Fort Knox. Economist Philip Pilkington says every government has its deep, dark secrets, and this one goes all the way back to 1971. "There's no gold. Or like there's just like spiders and rats and stuff like that." The audit got loud before the election. Then Trump won, and everyone went quiet. Philip Pilkington
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France sent a warship across the Atlantic to collect its gold, and after that, nobody has really known what's inside Fort Knox. Economist Philip Pilkington says every government has its deep, dark secrets, and this one goes all the way back to 1971. "There's no gold. Or like there's just like spiders and rats and stuff like that." The audit got loud before the election. Then Trump won, and everyone went quiet. Philip Pilkington

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163,499 views โ€ข 11 days ago

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ JPMorgan downgraded the market after its calls to the White House went nowhere. Economist Philip Pilkington describes how that pressure actually works, with executives picking up the phone to say they're frightened, getting no response, then telling their analysts to mark the S&P and Nasdaq down in public. The Bank of England chair calling the AI bubble shaky fits the same pattern. His read on why none of it lands is simpler. The cabinet is full of loyalists, the critical voices were chased out, and nobody is bringing the boss bad news. Philip Pilkington
1:53

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ JPMorgan downgraded the market after its calls to the White House went nowhere. Economist Philip Pilkington describes how that pressure actually works, with executives picking up the phone to say they're frightened, getting no response, then telling their analysts to mark the S&P and Nasdaq down in public. The Bank of England chair calling the AI bubble shaky fits the same pattern. His read on why none of it lands is simpler. The cabinet is full of loyalists, the critical voices were chased out, and nobody is bringing the boss bad news. Philip Pilkington

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28,806 views โ€ข 16 days ago

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Britain gutted its entire industrial base and replaced it with a financial system that isn't even really British. Economist Philip Pilkington argues the City of London is just an offshoot of Wall Street, which means when Wall Street catches a cold, Britain gets pneumonia. "If Wall Street is in trouble, the City of London is in double trouble." Sterling's survival depends on a system it doesn't control. Philip Pilkington
2:39

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Britain gutted its entire industrial base and replaced it with a financial system that isn't even really British. Economist Philip Pilkington argues the City of London is just an offshoot of Wall Street, which means when Wall Street catches a cold, Britain gets pneumonia. "If Wall Street is in trouble, the City of London is in double trouble." Sterling's survival depends on a system it doesn't control. Philip Pilkington

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49,331 views โ€ข 25 days ago

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Bombing Iran's energy grid is the last card left, and Iran may answer it on American soil. Economist Philip Pilkington says the strike everyone is waiting for wouldn't end the war, it would only widen the wreckage, and his picture of where that leads sticks: "We all live in an apartment building together, and the residents get into an argument over planning permission or something like that. So they just start destroying the apartment building." Everyone still has to live in what's left standing. Philip Pilkington
1:29

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Bombing Iran's energy grid is the last card left, and Iran may answer it on American soil. Economist Philip Pilkington says the strike everyone is waiting for wouldn't end the war, it would only widen the wreckage, and his picture of where that leads sticks: "We all live in an apartment building together, and the residents get into an argument over planning permission or something like that. So they just start destroying the apartment building." Everyone still has to live in what's left standing. Philip Pilkington

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104,864 views โ€ข 1 month ago

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ What governments call "rainy day funds" are actually something far older and more sinister. Economist Philip Pilkington just reframed the entire global financial order in two minutes. "What we've learned from this crisis is those aren't reserve holdings. It's called tribute. It's called tribute to an empire." If you can't spend it in a crisis, you never owned it. Philip Pilkington
2:23

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ What governments call "rainy day funds" are actually something far older and more sinister. Economist Philip Pilkington just reframed the entire global financial order in two minutes. "What we've learned from this crisis is those aren't reserve holdings. It's called tribute. It's called tribute to an empire." If you can't spend it in a crisis, you never owned it. Philip Pilkington

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99,892 views โ€ข 11 days ago

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The advisors keep saying "Sir, it's under control" and Trump keeps believing them. Economist Philip Pilkington argues the SPR is masking a brewing disaster while energy prices stay artificially suppressed. "The longer you hold these prices down, the quicker the SPR empties." When it runs dry, inflation spikes, rates follow, and nobody in the room warned him. Philip Pilkington
3:28

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The advisors keep saying "Sir, it's under control" and Trump keeps believing them. Economist Philip Pilkington argues the SPR is masking a brewing disaster while energy prices stay artificially suppressed. "The longer you hold these prices down, the quicker the SPR empties." When it runs dry, inflation spikes, rates follow, and nobody in the room warned him. Philip Pilkington

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56,751 views โ€ข 2 months ago

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The real price of crude could be around $160, and the only thing holding it down is a managed ceiling. Economist Philip Pilkington says the price you see has drifted far from actual supply and demand, and a full escalation could send it past $200 the moment the grip slips: "They've been able to contain it within the 80 to 90 window." Every cap holds until the day it doesn't, and we may be closing in on that day. Philip Pilkington
2:47

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The real price of crude could be around $160, and the only thing holding it down is a managed ceiling. Economist Philip Pilkington says the price you see has drifted far from actual supply and demand, and a full escalation could send it past $200 the moment the grip slips: "They've been able to contain it within the 80 to 90 window." Every cap holds until the day it doesn't, and we may be closing in on that day. Philip Pilkington

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147,506 views โ€ข 1 month ago

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ America's closest allies are drawing a dangerous lesson: if Iran can stand up to the US and come out ahead, why are they rolling over? Economist Philip Pilkington says the logic is spreading fast. "All these allies of the U.S. are like, Holy shit, look at the Iranians. They stood up to the U.S. and they're winning, and we're meant to be America's allies is bullying us, and we're stronger than Iran." The credibility cost of picking fights with Canada while cozying up to Kim Jong Un may be higher than anyone in Washington wants to admit. Philip Pilkington
2:49

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ America's closest allies are drawing a dangerous lesson: if Iran can stand up to the US and come out ahead, why are they rolling over? Economist Philip Pilkington says the logic is spreading fast. "All these allies of the U.S. are like, Holy shit, look at the Iranians. They stood up to the U.S. and they're winning, and we're meant to be America's allies is bullying us, and we're stronger than Iran." The credibility cost of picking fights with Canada while cozying up to Kim Jong Un may be higher than anyone in Washington wants to admit. Philip Pilkington

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56,432 views โ€ข 25 days ago

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ What's building in the bond markets right now is bigger than anything since the Great Depression. Economist Philip Pilkington isn't predicting another depression, but he says the instability running through global money markets is a different order of magnitude entirely: "Everyone's going bankrupt at the same time. Not everybody, but Japan, Britain, France, Italy probably." America isn't going bankrupt itself, though the squeeze on everyone else is what feeds back into Washington's problem, and Iran barely registers against it. Philip Pilkington
1:54

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ What's building in the bond markets right now is bigger than anything since the Great Depression. Economist Philip Pilkington isn't predicting another depression, but he says the instability running through global money markets is a different order of magnitude entirely: "Everyone's going bankrupt at the same time. Not everybody, but Japan, Britain, France, Italy probably." America isn't going bankrupt itself, though the squeeze on everyone else is what feeds back into Washington's problem, and Iran barely registers against it. Philip Pilkington

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48,656 views โ€ข 16 days ago

๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Is China about to help bring down fuel prices? Economist Philip Pilkington argues China's refineries coming back online will squeeze the blown-out crack spread back down and push crude up, rebalancing a market that's been wildly distorted. If Chinese imports snap back the way Philip expects, it could prove the "collapsing demand" story was never real. Philip Pilkington
2:59

๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Is China about to help bring down fuel prices? Economist Philip Pilkington argues China's refineries coming back online will squeeze the blown-out crack spread back down and push crude up, rebalancing a market that's been wildly distorted. If Chinese imports snap back the way Philip expects, it could prove the "collapsing demand" story was never real. Philip Pilkington

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117,684 views โ€ข 2 months ago

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Philip Pilkington says the biggest consequence of the Iran war may have nothing to do with missiles. It could be the beginning of the end for the U.S. dollar. His argument starts with an uncomfortable fact. Everyone is watching the Strait of Hormuz. Almost nobody is watching Japan. Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, but its financial system is under enormous strain. Pilkington says Washington has already taken extraordinary steps to stop the crisis spreading, effectively creating an international version of quantitative easing to keep the dollar system stable. He thinks that's the real story. "The pressure is building." Even if the missiles stop tomorrow, he argues the economic damage won't. The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, energy markets remain distorted, and inflationary pressure is beginning to ripple through some of America's closest allies, starting with Japan and South Korea. Then comes the prediction. Pilkington believes the Iran crisis has accelerated a shift that was already underway: the gradual erosion of dollar dominance. He points to growing discussion of a new Bretton Woods-style monetary system, the expansion of renminbi financing, and signs that financial institutions are beginning to prepare for a world where the dollar is no longer the unquestioned centre of global finance. His warning is stark. "If we sat down here and did this interview in 10 years' time... we'll be living in a different world." For Pilkington, the Iran war is far from being just another Middle East conflict. The event that may force the world to confront the slow collapse of the post-1945 financial order. Philip Pilkington
40:00

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Philip Pilkington says the biggest consequence of the Iran war may have nothing to do with missiles. It could be the beginning of the end for the U.S. dollar. His argument starts with an uncomfortable fact. Everyone is watching the Strait of Hormuz. Almost nobody is watching Japan. Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, but its financial system is under enormous strain. Pilkington says Washington has already taken extraordinary steps to stop the crisis spreading, effectively creating an international version of quantitative easing to keep the dollar system stable. He thinks that's the real story. "The pressure is building." Even if the missiles stop tomorrow, he argues the economic damage won't. The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, energy markets remain distorted, and inflationary pressure is beginning to ripple through some of America's closest allies, starting with Japan and South Korea. Then comes the prediction. Pilkington believes the Iran crisis has accelerated a shift that was already underway: the gradual erosion of dollar dominance. He points to growing discussion of a new Bretton Woods-style monetary system, the expansion of renminbi financing, and signs that financial institutions are beginning to prepare for a world where the dollar is no longer the unquestioned centre of global finance. His warning is stark. "If we sat down here and did this interview in 10 years' time... we'll be living in a different world." For Pilkington, the Iran war is far from being just another Middle East conflict. The event that may force the world to confront the slow collapse of the post-1945 financial order. Philip Pilkington

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273,290 views โ€ข 1 month ago

Philip Pilkington: โ€˜China๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ set to be BIGGEST WINNER as US๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ dollar system begins to UNWIND.โ€™ โ€˜If the dollar system unwinds and weโ€™re probably talking about, Unless something changes in the next year or two, we are really are that close. If that happens, the countries outside of the dollar system, ai include Europe in that. The euro system is actually separate from the dollar system. Europe has problems of its own, Iโ€™m not saying that Europeโ€™s gonna come out on top here, but if the dollar system itself starts to unwind, these other systems are gonna come to the fore. Thatโ€™s very clear, and I think the Chinese are gonna be the biggest winners out of this. Europe, itโ€™s a mixed bag. I think the euro will actually strengthen. Christine Lagarde knows that this is happening, and I can tell that because for the past 18 months or a year, sheโ€™s been talking about the global euro. Christine Lagarde in my opinion is the only competent technocrat left in Brussels. sheโ€™s the only smart person left in the room. A lot of them are clowns. A lot of them are not serious people. And sheโ€™s actually quite smart. And sheโ€™s been talking about this global euro for a while. The Chinese are quite well prepared for this. I think it was about six or eight months ago, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank launched Panda bonds. Now that was that was very interesting. These are renminbi bonds, that are you know issued fully in renminbi and you borrow in renminbi and you get renminbi and then you use the renminbi. This was the biggest investment bank in Europe, Deutsche Bank, and one of the biggest investment banks in the United States, and what they were clearly doing was testing the water, because at the moment, US interest rates are far higher than Chinese interest rates, and so logically, you just go and borrow renminbi. But the reason that they havenโ€™t switched completely is because of the political risk involved. Obviously, if they switch most of their lending, the US government will go crazy, but past a certain point.โ€™ Watch the full interview in the quoted post below๐Ÿ‘‡ Philip Pilkington
3:34

Philip Pilkington: โ€˜China๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ set to be BIGGEST WINNER as US๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ dollar system begins to UNWIND.โ€™ โ€˜If the dollar system unwinds and weโ€™re probably talking about, Unless something changes in the next year or two, we are really are that close. If that happens, the countries outside of the dollar system, ai include Europe in that. The euro system is actually separate from the dollar system. Europe has problems of its own, Iโ€™m not saying that Europeโ€™s gonna come out on top here, but if the dollar system itself starts to unwind, these other systems are gonna come to the fore. Thatโ€™s very clear, and I think the Chinese are gonna be the biggest winners out of this. Europe, itโ€™s a mixed bag. I think the euro will actually strengthen. Christine Lagarde knows that this is happening, and I can tell that because for the past 18 months or a year, sheโ€™s been talking about the global euro. Christine Lagarde in my opinion is the only competent technocrat left in Brussels. sheโ€™s the only smart person left in the room. A lot of them are clowns. A lot of them are not serious people. And sheโ€™s actually quite smart. And sheโ€™s been talking about this global euro for a while. The Chinese are quite well prepared for this. I think it was about six or eight months ago, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank launched Panda bonds. Now that was that was very interesting. These are renminbi bonds, that are you know issued fully in renminbi and you borrow in renminbi and you get renminbi and then you use the renminbi. This was the biggest investment bank in Europe, Deutsche Bank, and one of the biggest investment banks in the United States, and what they were clearly doing was testing the water, because at the moment, US interest rates are far higher than Chinese interest rates, and so logically, you just go and borrow renminbi. But the reason that they havenโ€™t switched completely is because of the political risk involved. Obviously, if they switch most of their lending, the US government will go crazy, but past a certain point.โ€™ Watch the full interview in the quoted post below๐Ÿ‘‡ Philip Pilkington

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22,036 views โ€ข 1 month ago

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The robots trading oil believe whatever Trump posts. Economist Philip Pilkington explains the machine driving the manipulation. Most oil futures trades are already algorithmic, heading toward all of them, and the algorithms aren't as smart as anyone assumes. Drop a headline saying a deal is imminent or oil is flowing through Hormuz, and the machines read Axios or a presidential post as credible news, then trade on it instantly. Pilkington has been making this case since the Red Sea crisis, back when people called it a lunatic theory. Now Tucker Carlson is citing it, and the theory that sounded crazy is simply how the market works. Philip Pilkington
4:00

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The robots trading oil believe whatever Trump posts. Economist Philip Pilkington explains the machine driving the manipulation. Most oil futures trades are already algorithmic, heading toward all of them, and the algorithms aren't as smart as anyone assumes. Drop a headline saying a deal is imminent or oil is flowing through Hormuz, and the machines read Axios or a presidential post as credible news, then trade on it instantly. Pilkington has been making this case since the Red Sea crisis, back when people called it a lunatic theory. Now Tucker Carlson is citing it, and the theory that sounded crazy is simply how the market works. Philip Pilkington

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89,116 views โ€ข 1 month ago

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Oil is back near $95. Japanese bond yields are surging. U.S. 30-year yields are back around levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis. And Philip Pilkington thinks we're watching the early stages of something much bigger. His argument is that the pressure has moved beyond individual geopolitical shocks and become structural. Treasury is trying to suppress long-term borrowing costs. The Fed is signalling tighter policy. Japan is struggling to defend the yen. Meanwhile, the Iran war is pushing energy prices higher and adding another inflationary shock. Pilkington says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is effectively trapped between the bond market and the Federal Reserve, while Trump's own policies are making the inflation problem harder to contain. And he thinks the usual tricks are running out. Bessent is now publicly pressuring Japan to raise rates and unwind the carry trade, which Pilkington calls an โ€œadmission of defeatโ€ for Treasury's attempts to stabilize the situation itself. His warning is extreme: If current trends continue, he fears a serious financial crisis within 3 to 6 months, potentially the worst episode of financial instability the U.S. has faced since the Great Depression. And Washington is escalating against Iran right in the middle of it. Pilkington's concern isn't simply that the war could cause the crisis, but that the financial system may already be entering one, and the war is pouring oil on it. Philip Pilkington
38:26

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Oil is back near $95. Japanese bond yields are surging. U.S. 30-year yields are back around levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis. And Philip Pilkington thinks we're watching the early stages of something much bigger. His argument is that the pressure has moved beyond individual geopolitical shocks and become structural. Treasury is trying to suppress long-term borrowing costs. The Fed is signalling tighter policy. Japan is struggling to defend the yen. Meanwhile, the Iran war is pushing energy prices higher and adding another inflationary shock. Pilkington says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is effectively trapped between the bond market and the Federal Reserve, while Trump's own policies are making the inflation problem harder to contain. And he thinks the usual tricks are running out. Bessent is now publicly pressuring Japan to raise rates and unwind the carry trade, which Pilkington calls an โ€œadmission of defeatโ€ for Treasury's attempts to stabilize the situation itself. His warning is extreme: If current trends continue, he fears a serious financial crisis within 3 to 6 months, potentially the worst episode of financial instability the U.S. has faced since the Great Depression. And Washington is escalating against Iran right in the middle of it. Pilkington's concern isn't simply that the war could cause the crisis, but that the financial system may already be entering one, and the war is pouring oil on it. Philip Pilkington

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322,593 views โ€ข 16 days ago