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The best Polymarket Quant bot for copy-trading with a 99.3% win rate. backtested strategy on 72M Polymarket/Kalshi trades to hit +$805K PnL on 27,000 predictions. bot doesn't gamble - it uses math and statistics in its algo to consistently hit 99% win rate. his algo decoded: 1. Mispricing formula...

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Movez

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1,808,001 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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HOW TO TURN $15K INTO $1.1 MILLION IN JUST 20 DAYS WITH A KILLER ARBITRAGE BOT A sophisticated Claude-powered bot took a starting deposit and scaled it all the way up to $1.1 million. It crushed the 5-minute and 15-min markets on Polymarket using a rock-solid strategy built on: - Mispricing detection formula. - Expected value calculation. - Kelly Criterion position sizing. The flow is simple and deadly effective: mispricing spotted -> EV calculated -> Kelly sizing applied -> position entered. Results speak louder than words: > 25,123 trades executed > 83.9% win rate > +$1.1M pure profit > Biggest single win: $33K 70% win rate, 7 wallets copytrading rn from ~500 monitored, bot never paused, never gambling, just math and profit Giving This Free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word 'Claude' 2. Like and Retweet this post 3. Follow me Marry Evan (so i can DM you)
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HOW TO TURN $15K INTO $1.1 MILLION IN JUST 20 DAYS WITH A KILLER ARBITRAGE BOT A sophisticated Claude-powered bot took a starting deposit and scaled it all the way up to $1.1 million. It crushed the 5-minute and 15-min markets on Polymarket using a rock-solid strategy built on: - Mispricing detection formula. - Expected value calculation. - Kelly Criterion position sizing. The flow is simple and deadly effective: mispricing spotted -> EV calculated -> Kelly sizing applied -> position entered. Results speak louder than words: > 25,123 trades executed > 83.9% win rate > +$1.1M pure profit > Biggest single win: $33K 70% win rate, 7 wallets copytrading rn from ~500 monitored, bot never paused, never gambling, just math and profit Giving This Free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word 'Claude' 2. Like and Retweet this post 3. Follow me Marry Evan (so i can DM you)

Marry Evan

12,679 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Polymarket copytrading video guide I found a bot that trades non-stop on 5-min and 15-min markets Its PnL is about $1,000,000 in 2 months with a 55% win rate and 20,800 predictions Guide on how to copy it: 1. Start this TG bot: 2. Top up your wallet in your profile 3. Click Copy Trade 4. Click Add Copy Trade 5. Enter the address of the wallet you want to copy 6. Enter its name for convenience His address: 0xd0d6053c3c37e727402d84c14069780d360993aa His profile on Polymarket: I use and recommend PolyGun for copying, but always dyor.
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Polymarket copytrading video guide I found a bot that trades non-stop on 5-min and 15-min markets Its PnL is about $1,000,000 in 2 months with a 55% win rate and 20,800 predictions Guide on how to copy it: 1. Start this TG bot: 2. Top up your wallet in your profile 3. Click Copy Trade 4. Click Add Copy Trade 5. Enter the address of the wallet you want to copy 6. Enter its name for convenience His address: 0xd0d6053c3c37e727402d84c14069780d360993aa His profile on Polymarket: I use and recommend PolyGun for copying, but always dyor.

mahera

12,304 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

CHINESE AI DEV CONNECTED CLAUDE TO POLYMARKET AND TURNED $177 INTO $15,800 WITH ONE BET ON 5-MINUTE MARKETS Past week: +$95,000. +$13,500/day! > 54 trades made >+$3,000 > max loss: -$2,986 Total PnL: +$115,000. Profile : Copy trade him: Best trades: > $177 -> $15,809 > $409 -> $13,136 > $114 -> $11,437 5.35% of trades generated over $3,000 in profit! Max loss is always smaller than any of these big wins. He uses the Kelly Criterion to size positions optimally. 50% win rate, but profits are ~3x larger than losses -> growth. The key is positive Expected Value (EV). 1009 trades and +$115,000 PnL - the stats speak for themselves. With a $1,000 deposit, each copied trade averages +$11.4. The more trades you copy, the closer your result gets to the average (law of large numbers): > 50 trades = ~91% chance to be profitable > 100 trades = ~96% > 300+ trades = ~99% Pure math. Losses are capped, while gains consistently outweigh them. Even with a 50% win rate, you can have positive EV. I described this in detail in the article. Save it If you need a full step by step guide on how to write your own bot, just: 1.follow me 2.repost this post 3. comment “GUIDE” And I will send you the full strategy for writing your own bot
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CHINESE AI DEV CONNECTED CLAUDE TO POLYMARKET AND TURNED $177 INTO $15,800 WITH ONE BET ON 5-MINUTE MARKETS Past week: +$95,000. +$13,500/day! > 54 trades made >+$3,000 > max loss: -$2,986 Total PnL: +$115,000. Profile : Copy trade him: Best trades: > $177 -> $15,809 > $409 -> $13,136 > $114 -> $11,437 5.35% of trades generated over $3,000 in profit! Max loss is always smaller than any of these big wins. He uses the Kelly Criterion to size positions optimally. 50% win rate, but profits are ~3x larger than losses -> growth. The key is positive Expected Value (EV). 1009 trades and +$115,000 PnL - the stats speak for themselves. With a $1,000 deposit, each copied trade averages +$11.4. The more trades you copy, the closer your result gets to the average (law of large numbers): > 50 trades = ~91% chance to be profitable > 100 trades = ~96% > 300+ trades = ~99% Pure math. Losses are capped, while gains consistently outweigh them. Even with a 50% win rate, you can have positive EV. I described this in detail in the article. Save it If you need a full step by step guide on how to write your own bot, just: 1.follow me 2.repost this post 3. comment “GUIDE” And I will send you the full strategy for writing your own bot

AdiiX

21,764 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

I rebuilt my Polymarket weather bot Launched a simulation with $1,000 An hour later, it was already $1,250. Another hour later - $680 The problem was simple: the forecast changed, but the bot didn't know about it and continued to hold its position That's exactly what I'm fixing in version v2 What I'm adding: 1. Expected Value EV = (p · b) − (1 − p) Before every entry the bot calculates expected value. Negative EV - no trade. But EV is useless if p comes from nowhere 2. Kelly Criterion f* = (p · b − q) / b Determines exactly how much to bet based on real edge Small edge → small position. Large edge → larger. Fixed sizing can't do this 3. Brier Score BS = (1/n) · Σ(fₜ − oₜ)² Measures how accurate our probabilities actually are. If the bot assigned 80% but the outcome won 40% of the time - Brier Score catches that 4. Calibration on own data After each trade the bot saves city, month, bucket, forecast at entry, final result History accumulates → bot calculates Brier Score on its own trades → if Chicago in March is consistently off - p for that city and month gets adjusted automatically 5. Adding new data sources Instead of relying on a single source, the bot will draw on several sources at once, and if the forecasts match, it will enter into a trade Every cycle of v2: - scan markets - check station forecast - apply calibration - calculate EV - apply Kelly - enter or skip - monitor every minute - close if forecast changes Btw, here's a short video clip showing the terminal in action A major update is coming soon
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I rebuilt my Polymarket weather bot Launched a simulation with $1,000 An hour later, it was already $1,250. Another hour later - $680 The problem was simple: the forecast changed, but the bot didn't know about it and continued to hold its position That's exactly what I'm fixing in version v2 What I'm adding: 1. Expected Value EV = (p · b) − (1 − p) Before every entry the bot calculates expected value. Negative EV - no trade. But EV is useless if p comes from nowhere 2. Kelly Criterion f* = (p · b − q) / b Determines exactly how much to bet based on real edge Small edge → small position. Large edge → larger. Fixed sizing can't do this 3. Brier Score BS = (1/n) · Σ(fₜ − oₜ)² Measures how accurate our probabilities actually are. If the bot assigned 80% but the outcome won 40% of the time - Brier Score catches that 4. Calibration on own data After each trade the bot saves city, month, bucket, forecast at entry, final result History accumulates → bot calculates Brier Score on its own trades → if Chicago in March is consistently off - p for that city and month gets adjusted automatically 5. Adding new data sources Instead of relying on a single source, the bot will draw on several sources at once, and if the forecasts match, it will enter into a trade Every cycle of v2: - scan markets - check station forecast - apply calibration - calculate EV - apply Kelly - enter or skip - monitor every minute - close if forecast changes Btw, here's a short video clip showing the terminal in action A major update is coming soon

Alter Ego

50,642 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Polymarket self-calibrating weather-trading Python bot (Full Guide) run the smartest weather-trading bot with 0 coding knowledge after reading this article: what's inside: > github with full Python code > trading 20 cities & 4 continents > 3 forecast sources {ECMWF, HRRR, METAR} > EV+ automatic calculation for each trade > auto-sizing based on the Kelly Criterion > full-data storage {forecast, trade, resolution} > self-calibration based on snapshots & data logic of the bot: • get 3 type of forecasts from Open-Meteo API • compare station data to 1h forecasts to get real data • calculate +EV per $1 using the {min_ev} parameter • detemine size based on Kelly Criterion • run a 1000$ test-simulation using the strategy • snapshot each trade, forecast, and resultion • auto-calibrates every 30 forecasts per city This bot won't print you $500 next day after setup, but it will give you a sandbox for testing own strategies.
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Polymarket self-calibrating weather-trading Python bot (Full Guide) run the smartest weather-trading bot with 0 coding knowledge after reading this article: what's inside: > github with full Python code > trading 20 cities & 4 continents > 3 forecast sources {ECMWF, HRRR, METAR} > EV+ automatic calculation for each trade > auto-sizing based on the Kelly Criterion > full-data storage {forecast, trade, resolution} > self-calibration based on snapshots & data logic of the bot: • get 3 type of forecasts from Open-Meteo API • compare station data to 1h forecasts to get real data • calculate +EV per $1 using the {min_ev} parameter • detemine size based on Kelly Criterion • run a 1000$ test-simulation using the strategy • snapshot each trade, forecast, and resultion • auto-calibrates every 30 forecasts per city This bot won't print you $500 next day after setup, but it will give you a sandbox for testing own strategies.

Movez

93,175 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

this formula decides who survives in trading everyone argues about what to buy. almost nobody argues about how much f* = (bp - q) / b p and q are your win rate and your loss rate. if the edge isn't positive, f* comes out zero. bet nothing. most traders don't have a zero setting b is the payoff. edge divided by odds. strong conviction on a bad payout still gets you a small position f* is a fraction of the account, never a dollar amount. wins scale the next bet up, losses scale it down. you can shrink forever and never actually hit zero now the part that kills people a real, provable, positive edge will still bankrupt you if you size it wrong. the chart below is the same 400 trades run twice. same win rate. same edge. 10% sizing compounds to 110k. 30% sizing ends at 52 dollars it doesn't blow up because it was wrong. it blows up because it was right too big being right is the cheap part
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this formula decides who survives in trading everyone argues about what to buy. almost nobody argues about how much f* = (bp - q) / b p and q are your win rate and your loss rate. if the edge isn't positive, f* comes out zero. bet nothing. most traders don't have a zero setting b is the payoff. edge divided by odds. strong conviction on a bad payout still gets you a small position f* is a fraction of the account, never a dollar amount. wins scale the next bet up, losses scale it down. you can shrink forever and never actually hit zero now the part that kills people a real, provable, positive edge will still bankrupt you if you size it wrong. the chart below is the same 400 trades run twice. same win rate. same edge. 10% sizing compounds to 110k. 30% sizing ends at 52 dollars it doesn't blow up because it was wrong. it blows up because it was right too big being right is the cheap part

0xbobaa

18,723 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

"MY Son is a Hacker" that's exactly what my mom said it was a Polymarket bot making $600/day while she stood behind me polymarket pricing is basically one equation: softmax, the same math Claude uses to pick the next word: C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) most traders don't even know it exists... they see 35¢ and think cheap my bot sees 35¢ and computes fair value at 55¢, an 20¢ edge two more formulas handle the rest: Kelly for sizing, Bayes for updating I gave Claude the equations and told it: "Find every mispriced contract" $502 → $12,089 on 348 trades, still running 72.6% win rate. wrong plenty, but position sizing makes wins outweigh losses the formulas are on Wikipedia the code fits in one file drop a follow. I'll teach u how to build this bot the only edge: reading the math at 2AM when the market's asleep mom still calls me a hacker she stopped asking about a real job xD
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"MY Son is a Hacker" that's exactly what my mom said it was a Polymarket bot making $600/day while she stood behind me polymarket pricing is basically one equation: softmax, the same math Claude uses to pick the next word: C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) most traders don't even know it exists... they see 35¢ and think cheap my bot sees 35¢ and computes fair value at 55¢, an 20¢ edge two more formulas handle the rest: Kelly for sizing, Bayes for updating I gave Claude the equations and told it: "Find every mispriced contract" $502 → $12,089 on 348 trades, still running 72.6% win rate. wrong plenty, but position sizing makes wins outweigh losses the formulas are on Wikipedia the code fits in one file drop a follow. I'll teach u how to build this bot the only edge: reading the math at 2AM when the market's asleep mom still calls me a hacker she stopped asking about a real job xD

cristal

294,921 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

This Polymarket bot made $282,385 today Joined: Nov 2025, 17,866 predictions, Biggest win: $142,900 It trades tennis and football The edge: Polymarket lags behind by 30–90 seconds In that window: → sportsbook says 73% probability → Polymarket still shows 48.6¢ The bot enters at 48.6¢ The market catches up The bot exits at 93.5¢ Profit: 92.2% You should try to copy-trade him with a 0-second delay: The math per trade: Entry: 48.6¢ (implies 48.6% probability) Sportsbook real-time: 73% Gap: 24.4¢ per share EV = 0.73 × (1/0.486) − 1 = +0.502 $33,000 position → +$16,566 expected value Actual result: +$30,498 The model is working exactly as designed
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This Polymarket bot made $282,385 today Joined: Nov 2025, 17,866 predictions, Biggest win: $142,900 It trades tennis and football The edge: Polymarket lags behind by 30–90 seconds In that window: → sportsbook says 73% probability → Polymarket still shows 48.6¢ The bot enters at 48.6¢ The market catches up The bot exits at 93.5¢ Profit: 92.2% You should try to copy-trade him with a 0-second delay: The math per trade: Entry: 48.6¢ (implies 48.6% probability) Sportsbook real-time: 73% Gap: 24.4¢ per share EV = 0.73 × (1/0.486) − 1 = +0.502 $33,000 position → +$16,566 expected value Actual result: +$30,498 The model is working exactly as designed

0xRicker

17,309 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

this OpenClaw bot never makes mistakes because of this bug on Polymarket today i was scrolling through the list of successful traders as usual and what i found completely blew my mind “sharky6999” registered in january 2025 23,943 trades, win rate 99.3% profile: 99.3% win rate means he has literally lost only a few times during his entire trading history i started digging into his trades and noticed one strange detail the bot doesn’t make predictions and doesn’t try to guess the news it simply buys contracts at 95-99¢ when the outcome is already almost obvious waits for market resolution and collects the last few cents it easily places $100-200k where the outcome is basically already decided this boring strategy prints money every day small but consistent profits from these markets seem to have allowed him to forget what work even is i already started copying his trades through PolyCop
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this OpenClaw bot never makes mistakes because of this bug on Polymarket today i was scrolling through the list of successful traders as usual and what i found completely blew my mind “sharky6999” registered in january 2025 23,943 trades, win rate 99.3% profile: 99.3% win rate means he has literally lost only a few times during his entire trading history i started digging into his trades and noticed one strange detail the bot doesn’t make predictions and doesn’t try to guess the news it simply buys contracts at 95-99¢ when the outcome is already almost obvious waits for market resolution and collects the last few cents it easily places $100-200k where the outcome is basically already decided this boring strategy prints money every day small but consistent profits from these markets seem to have allowed him to forget what work even is i already started copying his trades through PolyCop

Goaty

22,518 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

🚨Holy shit... This guy turned $100 into $207K on Polymarket No leverage. No signals. No charts. Just a bot running the same calculation hundreds of times per hour. Everyone thinks he's trading Bitcoin. He's not. He's not predicting price direction. He's finding where the market is wrong about its own probabilities and taking the other side. To copytrade this guy - Here's the gap he exploits: Polymarket prices 5-minute BTC Up at 46%. Real probability based on volatility and momentum: 55%. That's 9 cents mispriced on a binary outcome. Bot sees it. Bot buys it. Market resolves in 5 minutes. Edge locked. Then it does it again. And again. Hundreds of times a week. The math isn't complicated. Small edge × high frequency = the account you're looking at. Look at the pattern in the trades: 5-minute markets only Consistent sizing every entry Dozens of executions per day Win rate that doesn't drift That's not gambling. That's a probability engine running on a market built for humans to trade manually. $100 became $207,176 because the bot doesn't sleep doesn't hesitate doesn't second-guess.
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🚨Holy shit... This guy turned $100 into $207K on Polymarket No leverage. No signals. No charts. Just a bot running the same calculation hundreds of times per hour. Everyone thinks he's trading Bitcoin. He's not. He's not predicting price direction. He's finding where the market is wrong about its own probabilities and taking the other side. To copytrade this guy - Here's the gap he exploits: Polymarket prices 5-minute BTC Up at 46%. Real probability based on volatility and momentum: 55%. That's 9 cents mispriced on a binary outcome. Bot sees it. Bot buys it. Market resolves in 5 minutes. Edge locked. Then it does it again. And again. Hundreds of times a week. The math isn't complicated. Small edge × high frequency = the account you're looking at. Look at the pattern in the trades: 5-minute markets only Consistent sizing every entry Dozens of executions per day Win rate that doesn't drift That's not gambling. That's a probability engine running on a market built for humans to trade manually. $100 became $207,176 because the bot doesn't sleep doesn't hesitate doesn't second-guess.

Shelpid.WI3M

20,853 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

I spent 48h to find this ''bot trading wallet'' on Polymarket He made 10,057 trades in one month and earned $87,000 > this wallet is an arbitrage bot > trades only BTC Up or Down (5 min) only > always use the same strategy And here's how it trades: > waits until one of the outcomes (YES/NO) falls below 35¢ > buy more when the average price is low > watch how the opposite outcome moves > makes sure the total average prices are under 99¢ > if he doesn't have a hedge, just closing the position with no losses This is exactly how algo-trading works His profile:
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I spent 48h to find this ''bot trading wallet'' on Polymarket He made 10,057 trades in one month and earned $87,000 > this wallet is an arbitrage bot > trades only BTC Up or Down (5 min) only > always use the same strategy And here's how it trades: > waits until one of the outcomes (YES/NO) falls below 35¢ > buy more when the average price is low > watch how the opposite outcome moves > makes sure the total average prices are under 99¢ > if he doesn't have a hedge, just closing the position with no losses This is exactly how algo-trading works His profile:

sopersone

37,390 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

This guy made $600,000 on Polymarket using software, buying markets for $28 His trading bot makes 14 trades per hour or 0.22 trades per minute. He trades only sports markets and in 3 months turned $5,321 into $597,928 His strategy is simple: > The median size of his trades is $28 > He uses Split and Merge > He buys when the probability on Polymarket has not yet had time to reflect the events in the match Here is the link to this guy’s account: You can copy trade smart money through the mobile app: This app was developed by Ratio
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This guy made $600,000 on Polymarket using software, buying markets for $28 His trading bot makes 14 trades per hour or 0.22 trades per minute. He trades only sports markets and in 3 months turned $5,321 into $597,928 His strategy is simple: > The median size of his trades is $28 > He uses Split and Merge > He buys when the probability on Polymarket has not yet had time to reflect the events in the match Here is the link to this guy’s account: You can copy trade smart money through the mobile app: This app was developed by Ratio

VALIX

12,063 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

This HFT bot is about to cross $1M profit trading 5-min BTC markets and making $10,000/day I traced his trades using Claude → backtested the strategy on 72M trades dataset the edge is that he runs both sides of the same window at once, then lets a probability model decide where the real money is that's the floor. the edge on top is directional: edge = fair_prob - market_price for each window the bot estimates the true probability BTC moves a direction in the next few minutes then fades the crowd when the price disagrees. that's why his fills run from 21¢ longshots to 99¢ near-locks across BTC and ETH Profile:
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This HFT bot is about to cross $1M profit trading 5-min BTC markets and making $10,000/day I traced his trades using Claude → backtested the strategy on 72M trades dataset the edge is that he runs both sides of the same window at once, then lets a probability model decide where the real money is that's the floor. the edge on top is directional: edge = fair_prob - market_price for each window the bot estimates the true probability BTC moves a direction in the next few minutes then fades the crowd when the price disagrees. that's why his fills run from 21¢ longshots to 99¢ near-locks across BTC and ETH Profile:

Ricker

24,662 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

I found 7 free Polymarket trading bots on GitHub for 7 different trading situations… Each of these bots comes with a detailed step by step setup and usage guide in English: 1. This bot includes 118+ ready to use strategies and tools for trading on prediction markets (Momentum, Binance-Polymarket latency, Penny Clipper, Smart Routing, Expiry Fade, DCA bots and more). Built by a Cambridge computer science student who won a hackathon with this trading bot. GitHub: 2. This bot automatically manages all your Polymarket limit orders to maximize liquidity rewards. GitHub: 3. A weather bot from a Chinese dev, that analyzes multiple sources in real time, like forecasts, airport data and aviation observations (METAR + SPECI) to get the most accurate temperature data and generate a detailed weather report for a specific city and day. GitHub: 4. A bot that automatically searches for arbitrage opportunities between Polymarket and Kalshi. GitHub: 5. This is a bot-toolkit that includes copy trading, arbitrage, market making, whale alerts, spread farming, sports trading and more… GitHub: 6. A smart money trading bot - it looks for the most successful traders in selected markets, filters them by Pnl + win rate, and then creates a list for automated copy trading. GitHub: 7. A large collection of 20+ free trading bots for prediction markets. GitHub: Every bot here has a Dry Run mode, so you can test it on real markets without risking any funds.
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I found 7 free Polymarket trading bots on GitHub for 7 different trading situations… Each of these bots comes with a detailed step by step setup and usage guide in English: 1. This bot includes 118+ ready to use strategies and tools for trading on prediction markets (Momentum, Binance-Polymarket latency, Penny Clipper, Smart Routing, Expiry Fade, DCA bots and more). Built by a Cambridge computer science student who won a hackathon with this trading bot. GitHub: 2. This bot automatically manages all your Polymarket limit orders to maximize liquidity rewards. GitHub: 3. A weather bot from a Chinese dev, that analyzes multiple sources in real time, like forecasts, airport data and aviation observations (METAR + SPECI) to get the most accurate temperature data and generate a detailed weather report for a specific city and day. GitHub: 4. A bot that automatically searches for arbitrage opportunities between Polymarket and Kalshi. GitHub: 5. This is a bot-toolkit that includes copy trading, arbitrage, market making, whale alerts, spread farming, sports trading and more… GitHub: 6. A smart money trading bot - it looks for the most successful traders in selected markets, filters them by Pnl + win rate, and then creates a list for automated copy trading. GitHub: 7. A large collection of 20+ free trading bots for prediction markets. GitHub: Every bot here has a Dry Run mode, so you can test it on real markets without risking any funds.

Recogard

42,137 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

This quant bot turned $2.5K into $861,000 on Polymarket using pure math his profile: How he does it: -> only trades binary markets (BTC Up/Down, NBA spreads, esports) -> buys NO at 5-65c when implied probability is mispriced -> 29,443 predictions, biggest single win: $35,500 on a Bitcoin market -> wins ~95c on the dollar, thousands of times -> doesn't predict outcomes, prices the gap between actual and implied probability The part most people miss: his edge isn't picking winners it's stacking 5-10 mispriced contracts at the same time across correlated markets when his model is right, multiple bets pay simultaneously The new way to copy traders like him: a parlay bot that combines all his correlated Polymarket bets into one ticket -> multiplied payout when several resolve right link: Always dyor
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This quant bot turned $2.5K into $861,000 on Polymarket using pure math his profile: How he does it: -> only trades binary markets (BTC Up/Down, NBA spreads, esports) -> buys NO at 5-65c when implied probability is mispriced -> 29,443 predictions, biggest single win: $35,500 on a Bitcoin market -> wins ~95c on the dollar, thousands of times -> doesn't predict outcomes, prices the gap between actual and implied probability The part most people miss: his edge isn't picking winners it's stacking 5-10 mispriced contracts at the same time across correlated markets when his model is right, multiple bets pay simultaneously The new way to copy traders like him: a parlay bot that combines all his correlated Polymarket bets into one ticket -> multiplied payout when several resolve right link: Always dyor

Paone

30,970 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Math quant bot on Polymarket made over $457K PnL in 20 days - he turned $7,387 → $457k profit it uses Markov Chains to find "mispriced" windows on BTC and ETH up/down markets - made 14,200+ predictions, with ~$22,850 avg. daily profit by exploiting gaps humans miss at 3AM strategy: a 1h BTC/ETH up/down market is a binary contract it pays $1 if event happens → $0 if not Markov Chains give you the probability of the next market state based on: > current state of the market (up / down / flat) > transition matrix built from live price data > diagonal persistence value - how stable the current state is formula: p̂ − market_price ≥ 0.05 AND P(j*, j*) ≥ 0.87 bot profile: - read article below to understand how Markov Chains are used to extract edge from prediction markets
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Math quant bot on Polymarket made over $457K PnL in 20 days - he turned $7,387 → $457k profit it uses Markov Chains to find "mispriced" windows on BTC and ETH up/down markets - made 14,200+ predictions, with ~$22,850 avg. daily profit by exploiting gaps humans miss at 3AM strategy: a 1h BTC/ETH up/down market is a binary contract it pays $1 if event happens → $0 if not Markov Chains give you the probability of the next market state based on: > current state of the market (up / down / flat) > transition matrix built from live price data > diagonal persistence value - how stable the current state is formula: p̂ − market_price ≥ 0.05 AND P(j*, j*) ≥ 0.87 bot profile: - read article below to understand how Markov Chains are used to extract edge from prediction markets

bodila

68,402 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

$1,500 → $33,000 on 5min BTC markets in 2 days This is the new reality. It stops being gambling the moment you define an exact algorithm. Here are the recommendations on how to create the same trading bot: → Write your code in Rust – it offers C++ level speed, and there’s an official polymarket-client-sdk available. → Minimize Latency – your trading bot must be deployed in the same data center as Polymarket: AWS eu-west-2 (London). This ensures the lowest possible execution lag. → Price Discovery – Polymarket pulls prices from Chainlink, but Chainlink doesn’t "create" the price; it simply aggregates and broadcasts it. Use Binance – as the largest spot exchange, it is the primary source of price discovery. → Apply the Black-Scholes Model for binary options – this is exactly what will help you identify +EV opportunities by calculating all necessary Greeks and variables. → Don’t turn it into a casino – use the Kelly Criterion. It acts as your risk manager, calculating the optimal % of your bankroll for every single position. If you want to earn like trading bot devs – you need to think like them.
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$1,500 → $33,000 on 5min BTC markets in 2 days This is the new reality. It stops being gambling the moment you define an exact algorithm. Here are the recommendations on how to create the same trading bot: → Write your code in Rust – it offers C++ level speed, and there’s an official polymarket-client-sdk available. → Minimize Latency – your trading bot must be deployed in the same data center as Polymarket: AWS eu-west-2 (London). This ensures the lowest possible execution lag. → Price Discovery – Polymarket pulls prices from Chainlink, but Chainlink doesn’t "create" the price; it simply aggregates and broadcasts it. Use Binance – as the largest spot exchange, it is the primary source of price discovery. → Apply the Black-Scholes Model for binary options – this is exactly what will help you identify +EV opportunities by calculating all necessary Greeks and variables. → Don’t turn it into a casino – use the Kelly Criterion. It acts as your risk manager, calculating the optimal % of your bankroll for every single position. If you want to earn like trading bot devs – you need to think like them.

lunatik

93,343 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

How to Turn $15k into $529k in 15 Days A Clawdbot scaled a deposit up to $529k By trading 5-min and 15-min markets on Polymarket > the bot buys YES and NO simultaneously > If their combined price is below $1, making 4% profit instantly > 9,866 trades > 83.9% win rate > +$529k profit Check this profile here: If you wish to do the same I have outlined exactly how to create your own bot in my article Which is also where I told the story of an account making $101k in 48 hours
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How to Turn $15k into $529k in 15 Days A Clawdbot scaled a deposit up to $529k By trading 5-min and 15-min markets on Polymarket > the bot buys YES and NO simultaneously > If their combined price is below $1, making 4% profit instantly > 9,866 trades > 83.9% win rate > +$529k profit Check this profile here: If you wish to do the same I have outlined exactly how to create your own bot in my article Which is also where I told the story of an account making $101k in 48 hours

DPool

621,378 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

"WTF Are You Doing? You're not a meteorologist!" I shifted my laptop toward her: $450 → $12,420 Polymarket prices look like a pure softmax, the same engine Claude uses to weigh its next token So I fed the model two equations and a watchlist of 80 live contracts: f* = (p · b − q) / b P(H|E) = P(E|H) · P(H) / P(E) It doesn't read the news. It measures the differential The weather station says 92% rain. The market is pricing 78% That 14-cent edge? It takes it No vibes. No narrative. Just arithmetic It pings every hour. 72 out of 80 times, the answer is: PASS But when the gap clears 7%, it sizes via Kelly, executes the trade, and goes back to sleep One contract sat at 0.28 for three days while the fair price was 0.46 The bot waited anyway. Resolved YES Win Rate: 69.9%. It's wrong a full third of the time and still prints, because Kelly scales the winners harder than the losers Most wallets bleed out chasing feelings. A formula can't panic! (One script. Freshman-level math. 812 trades so far) My friend still insists I'm being weird about the weather The bot cleared $59.47 while he was saying it Drop a like. I'll show you how to build your own bot here:
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"WTF Are You Doing? You're not a meteorologist!" I shifted my laptop toward her: $450 → $12,420 Polymarket prices look like a pure softmax, the same engine Claude uses to weigh its next token So I fed the model two equations and a watchlist of 80 live contracts: f* = (p · b − q) / b P(H|E) = P(E|H) · P(H) / P(E) It doesn't read the news. It measures the differential The weather station says 92% rain. The market is pricing 78% That 14-cent edge? It takes it No vibes. No narrative. Just arithmetic It pings every hour. 72 out of 80 times, the answer is: PASS But when the gap clears 7%, it sizes via Kelly, executes the trade, and goes back to sleep One contract sat at 0.28 for three days while the fair price was 0.46 The bot waited anyway. Resolved YES Win Rate: 69.9%. It's wrong a full third of the time and still prints, because Kelly scales the winners harder than the losers Most wallets bleed out chasing feelings. A formula can't panic! (One script. Freshman-level math. 812 trades so far) My friend still insists I'm being weird about the weather The bot cleared $59.47 while he was saying it Drop a like. I'll show you how to build your own bot here:

cristal

53,891 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

8 free Polymarket Trading Bots on GitHub (from Beginner Friendly to Advanced Level). Each of these repos comes with a detailed step by step setup and usage guide in English. > Beginner Level - 5 min setup 1. This bot includes 120 ready to use strategies and tools for trading on prediction markets (Binance-Polymarket latency, Smart Routing, Penny Clipper, Momentum, DCA bots, Expiry Fade and more). It was built by a Cambridge computer science student who won a hackathon with this bot. GitHub: 2. A trading bot with a Smart Money strategy - it finds top traders in selected markets, filters them by Pnl, win rate, stable performance and then creates a list for automated copy trading. GitHub: 3. This is a bot toolkit that includes Polymarket - Kalshi arbitrage, whale alerts, market making, spread farming, sports trading and more. GitHub: 4. A weather trading bot from Chinese dev that analyzes different sources in real time, like forecasts, airport data and aviation observations (METAR + SPECI) to get the latest temperature data and generate a detailed weather report for a specific city and day. GitHub: 5. A huge collection of 30+ free trading bots and services for prediction markets. GitHub: > Advanced bot setup 1. This bot analyzes the real trading behavior of any Polymarket trader. It finds repeated patterns in his trades, shows which strategies he uses and helps you understand how to adapt them to your own trading. GitHub: 2. A bot that automatically manages all your limit orders on Polymarket to maximize liquidity rewards. GitHub: > A full ML weather model 1. A machine learning weather model that learns from weather forecasting errors. Instead of blindly trusting forecasts, it analyzes how different weather sources have historically overestimated or underestimated temperature values in specific cities and conditions. Then it automatically adjusts new forecasts to produce more accurate predictions. GitHub: All of these bots also support Dry Run mode, so you can test them on real markets without risking any funds.
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8 free Polymarket Trading Bots on GitHub (from Beginner Friendly to Advanced Level). Each of these repos comes with a detailed step by step setup and usage guide in English. > Beginner Level - 5 min setup 1. This bot includes 120 ready to use strategies and tools for trading on prediction markets (Binance-Polymarket latency, Smart Routing, Penny Clipper, Momentum, DCA bots, Expiry Fade and more). It was built by a Cambridge computer science student who won a hackathon with this bot. GitHub: 2. A trading bot with a Smart Money strategy - it finds top traders in selected markets, filters them by Pnl, win rate, stable performance and then creates a list for automated copy trading. GitHub: 3. This is a bot toolkit that includes Polymarket - Kalshi arbitrage, whale alerts, market making, spread farming, sports trading and more. GitHub: 4. A weather trading bot from Chinese dev that analyzes different sources in real time, like forecasts, airport data and aviation observations (METAR + SPECI) to get the latest temperature data and generate a detailed weather report for a specific city and day. GitHub: 5. A huge collection of 30+ free trading bots and services for prediction markets. GitHub: > Advanced bot setup 1. This bot analyzes the real trading behavior of any Polymarket trader. It finds repeated patterns in his trades, shows which strategies he uses and helps you understand how to adapt them to your own trading. GitHub: 2. A bot that automatically manages all your limit orders on Polymarket to maximize liquidity rewards. GitHub: > A full ML weather model 1. A machine learning weather model that learns from weather forecasting errors. Instead of blindly trusting forecasts, it analyzes how different weather sources have historically overestimated or underestimated temperature values in specific cities and conditions. Then it automatically adjusts new forecasts to produce more accurate predictions. GitHub: All of these bots also support Dry Run mode, so you can test them on real markets without risking any funds.

Recogard

58,826 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce