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The CFTC is a rules-based regulatory agency that prioritizes consumer protections and market integrity. Unlike casinos, our markets operate under clear rules that allow participants to manage risk, discover prices on a transparent order book, and exit positions when they choose. Watch more as I explain why prediction markets...

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Mike Selig

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10,224 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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why are traders ditching vegas books for prediction markets? 'you're betting against a book. these prediction markets are peer-to-peer. it's just you and i sitting down' 'it's a more level playing field. i can still get the same engagement of betting on sports, but i'm not betting against a vegas book with a line'
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Introducing Leveraged Prediction Markets on the LogX Network💥💥 Everyone has a view on whether Trump will win or lose the election👀 While traditional prediction markets allow you to place a binary bet on an event, LogX enables you to take up to a 10x leveraged position based on your beliefs🫡 These markets are more liquid than spot markets, allowing users to seamlessly enter and exit positions! The robust trading infrastructure of LogX Network supports leveraged prediction markets right out of the box. Demo launching soon on the LogX Network TestNet 🚀
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LogX 🪵

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CFTC Chair Michael Selig says he’s not an expert on betting lines and can’t distinguish between ones on sportsbooks and prediction markets. Rep. Vasquez: “That’s exactly the problem, because consumers can’t either though the purpose of the activity is exactly the same.” “I understand the CFTC’s role has been overseeing derivatives markets. Traditionally that has been helping businesses hedge real economic risk. Airlines hedge fuel costs. Farmers hedge crop prices. That is very different than putting money on the outcome of a baseball game. On a prediction market consumers can trade on whether Astros second baseman Jose Altuve hits a home run in tonight’s game against the Rockies. Does a contract on a single player’s performance on a single statistic hedge any real economic risk?” Selig: “Congressman, there are many risks that could be hedged through various contracts on our markets. The bottom line is that these markets need to be well functioning and comprehensively regulated by the CFTC. Our statute mandates it and we’ll continue to do it.”
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Event contracts listed on CFTC-registered exchanges are derivatives subject to the CFTC’s exclusive regulatory authority. Whether the contract’s underlying event is sports, politics, corn, or grain, it trades on a federally-regulated exchange with an order book, clearing house, and investor protections. Watch more from House Committee on Agriculture yesterday ⬇️
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Event contracts listed on CFTC-registered exchanges are derivatives subject to the CFTC’s exclusive regulatory authority. Whether the contract’s underlying event is sports, politics, corn, or grain, it trades on a federally-regulated exchange with an order book, clearing house, and investor protections. Watch more from House Committee on Agriculture yesterday ⬇️

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The CFTC takes seriously its responsibility to reject prediction market contracts that are readily susceptible to manipulation and we’re working with the professional sports leagues to ensure we get this right. When a league raises manipulation concerns about a contract proposed to be listed on a prediction market, the agency considers the league’s concerns and may prohibit the contract from being listed. Watch more on ESPN with David Payne Purdum ⬇️

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WOW … Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pulls a Kamala in Munich … how embarrassing for America when this is the best the Democrat Party has to offer.😳😲 Could someone please decipher what she said, because it’s all word-salad to me. “We are in a new day and a new time. But that does not mean that a majority of Americans are willing to walk away from a rules based order and that we’re ready to walk away from our commitment to democracy.” “I think what we identify in a rules based order, hypocrisy is vulnerability and so I think what we are seeking is a return to a rules based order that eliminates the hypocrisies around when too often in the West we look the other way for inconvenient populations to act out, to act out the paradoxes.” The only thing I took from this is a new phrase the leftist want to put into our vocabulary … and that is the phrase … ‘Rules Based Order’
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WOW … Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pulls a Kamala in Munich … how embarrassing for America when this is the best the Democrat Party has to offer.😳😲 Could someone please decipher what she said, because it’s all word-salad to me. “We are in a new day and a new time. But that does not mean that a majority of Americans are willing to walk away from a rules based order and that we’re ready to walk away from our commitment to democracy.” “I think what we identify in a rules based order, hypocrisy is vulnerability and so I think what we are seeking is a return to a rules based order that eliminates the hypocrisies around when too often in the West we look the other way for inconvenient populations to act out, to act out the paradoxes.” The only thing I took from this is a new phrase the leftist want to put into our vocabulary … and that is the phrase … ‘Rules Based Order’

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🚨 NOW: President Trump GOES OFF on Governors trying to crack down against online prediction markets "It is critically important that the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive. Under my leadership, we are setting “rules of the road” that are the Gold Standard for the States." "We cannot have SCUM like Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker setting the rules! Other Countries are after this new form of Financial Market, and we want to remain at the top." "Likewise, and even more importantly, where we are currently the Crypto (Bitcoin, etc.) Capital of the World, other Countries are trying diligently to replace us in that capacity, but we won’t let that happen." "It is a major Industry, and we must protect it. Mike Selig, CFTC Chairman, and respected by all, is doing a great job. Thank you Mike! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
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🚨 NOW: President Trump GOES OFF on Governors trying to crack down against online prediction markets "It is critically important that the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive. Under my leadership, we are setting “rules of the road” that are the Gold Standard for the States." "We cannot have SCUM like Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker setting the rules! Other Countries are after this new form of Financial Market, and we want to remain at the top." "Likewise, and even more importantly, where we are currently the Crypto (Bitcoin, etc.) Capital of the World, other Countries are trying diligently to replace us in that capacity, but we won’t let that happen." "It is a major Industry, and we must protect it. Mike Selig, CFTC Chairman, and respected by all, is doing a great job. Thank you Mike! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

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A lot of discussion and announcements around prediction markets: purely for fun, I've built a demo app. Meet Betcha, my attempt to broaden the prediction markets TAM. 📊 Current state: Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are powerful truth-seeking tools because money on the line and arbitrage keep prices honest as new information hits. Most participants today are traders and bettors who are very fee-sensitive, so raising fees will be challenging. Growth has to come from much higher volume, which is achievable, but it will take time. 🏛️ Sportsbook/Regulatory Environment: Because CFTC-regulated event contracts create a potential path into some states that have not legalized sports betting, prediction-market rails can help sportsbooks reach markets they previously could not. Reframing parlays and prop-style outcomes as “predictions” is clever and expands reach from zero revenue in states where they can't operate sportsbooks to something. Still, these products will likely remain volume-constrained, struggling to match a traditional sportsbook’s vig. The positive is that the sportsbooks won't be getting gouged by state-level taxes as part of the process of leveraging prediction markets vs. sportsbooks. I still think this will be an exciting category that emerges, but it will take time. I want to see Polymarket build its own PM sports-specific app to compete here vs whitelabel (cc: Shayne Coplan 🦅) 📈 Market expansion thesis: Stop optimizing just for traders. Try building for the culture that lives on TikTok/Twitter/Reddit. They're already making predictions - just give them a scoreboard and an easier way to participate in returns. 🎪 Behavioral unlock: The mass market will never identify as "bettors." They want social proof, bragging rights, and gamified experiences. Critically, they're far less fee-sensitive when entertainment value is high, and that's the opportunity Prediction markets have a volume and take rate dilemma, and I think fun consumer apps like this can help solve it. Fine-tune the algorithm to serve event contracts I actually care about, let me lock in a pick fast, and build simple social features on top. Anyway, here's my demo. Any feedback/discussion is welcome!
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A lot of discussion and announcements around prediction markets: purely for fun, I've built a demo app. Meet Betcha, my attempt to broaden the prediction markets TAM. 📊 Current state: Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are powerful truth-seeking tools because money on the line and arbitrage keep prices honest as new information hits. Most participants today are traders and bettors who are very fee-sensitive, so raising fees will be challenging. Growth has to come from much higher volume, which is achievable, but it will take time. 🏛️ Sportsbook/Regulatory Environment: Because CFTC-regulated event contracts create a potential path into some states that have not legalized sports betting, prediction-market rails can help sportsbooks reach markets they previously could not. Reframing parlays and prop-style outcomes as “predictions” is clever and expands reach from zero revenue in states where they can't operate sportsbooks to something. Still, these products will likely remain volume-constrained, struggling to match a traditional sportsbook’s vig. The positive is that the sportsbooks won't be getting gouged by state-level taxes as part of the process of leveraging prediction markets vs. sportsbooks. I still think this will be an exciting category that emerges, but it will take time. I want to see Polymarket build its own PM sports-specific app to compete here vs whitelabel (cc: Shayne Coplan 🦅) 📈 Market expansion thesis: Stop optimizing just for traders. Try building for the culture that lives on TikTok/Twitter/Reddit. They're already making predictions - just give them a scoreboard and an easier way to participate in returns. 🎪 Behavioral unlock: The mass market will never identify as "bettors." They want social proof, bragging rights, and gamified experiences. Critically, they're far less fee-sensitive when entertainment value is high, and that's the opportunity Prediction markets have a volume and take rate dilemma, and I think fun consumer apps like this can help solve it. Fine-tune the algorithm to serve event contracts I actually care about, let me lock in a pick fast, and build simple social features on top. Anyway, here's my demo. Any feedback/discussion is welcome!

Ryan Wyatt

83,651 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

“A world based on predictable rules is better than a world in which force is the only rule.” Spain’s foreign minister José Manuel Albares tells @tommackenzietv and Anna Edwards that Europe needs to be more vocal in defending a rules-based global order
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“A world based on predictable rules is better than a world in which force is the only rule.” Spain’s foreign minister José Manuel Albares tells @tommackenzietv and Anna Edwards that Europe needs to be more vocal in defending a rules-based global order

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More sophisticated participants are entering prediction markets and it is becoming difficult for retail traders to compete. Retail also needs to be programmatically interacting with these markets to be successful. That’s why I built It’s a chrome extension that enables anyone to create a strategy on Kalshi and deploy a bot that runs it autonomously. There seems to be clear demand. I posted about it 30 days ago and we’re already at 220 users and 20,000+ trades via Reflex!
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More sophisticated participants are entering prediction markets and it is becoming difficult for retail traders to compete. Retail also needs to be programmatically interacting with these markets to be successful. That’s why I built It’s a chrome extension that enables anyone to create a strategy on Kalshi and deploy a bot that runs it autonomously. There seems to be clear demand. I posted about it 30 days ago and we’re already at 220 users and 20,000+ trades via Reflex!

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"What's the difference between a money market fund and a stablecoin? If it's the same risk and I get interest in one but not the other, why would any agent choose the stablecoin?" Christopher on the question that could reshape the entire stablecoin market "If there's anything agents are awesome at, they almost over-optimize. In that world, do money markets win?" "I'm an agent. I want that interest to come to me, not go to the stablecoin issuer. What prevents that?" "Fundamentally, if it's the same risk and I get interest in one and I don't get the other, why would any agent go into the stablecoin space?"

Laura Shin

11,661 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Most prediction markets are built around a house 👀 An intermediary that sets the rules, controls the odds, and captures the edge. We’re about to introduce something different. A system with no house, where the market is formed by participants themselves. Belief comes first, conviction shapes structure, liquidity follows, not the other way around. No name yet, no spoilers. Full announcement tomorrow via SEED🌱
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Most prediction markets are built around a house 👀 An intermediary that sets the rules, controls the odds, and captures the edge. We’re about to introduce something different. A system with no house, where the market is formed by participants themselves. Belief comes first, conviction shapes structure, liquidity follows, not the other way around. No name yet, no spoilers. Full announcement tomorrow via SEED🌱

Launch with Seed | $SEED

10,171 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten