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The CFTC is a rules-based regulatory agency that prioritizes consumer protections and market integrity. Unlike casinos, our markets operate under clear rules that allow participants to manage risk, discover prices on a transparent order book, and exit positions when they choose. Watch more as I explain why prediction markets... show more

Mike Selig

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Federal law makes it clear that the CFTC regulates derivatives. Whether it's sports, politics, or oil prices, the CFTC has clear jurisdiction under the federal regulatory framework to oversee prediction markets, and we have an obligation to defend our statute. Watch more on Squawk Box ⬇️

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Ex-CFTC chairman Chris Giancarlo's argument on why prediction markets fall under federal rather than state jurisdiction "This Sunday I'm putting out a podcast I recorded with ex CFTC chairman Chris Giancarlo, and he made a very clear point, that this is CFTC jurisdiction and not the states at all, that it's going to go to the Supreme Court and the CFTC is going to win" "His argument was that for the states to be the regulator, there had to be a middleman. A prediction market contract, whether on sports or anything else, is a binary bet between you and me over the outcome" "States get to regulate things like casinos, where there's a house in between keeping a vig. But these contracts do not count"

Ex-CFTC chairman Chris Giancarlo's argument on why prediction markets fall under federal rather than state jurisdiction "This Sunday I'm putting out a podcast I recorded with ex CFTC chairman Chris Giancarlo, and he made a very clear point, that this is CFTC jurisdiction and not the states at all, that it's going to go to the Supreme Court and the CFTC is going to win" "His argument was that for the states to be the regulator, there had to be a middleman. A prediction market contract, whether on sports or anything else, is a binary bet between you and me over the outcome" "States get to regulate things like casinos, where there's a house in between keeping a vig. But these contracts do not count"

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why are traders ditching vegas books for prediction markets? 'you're betting against a book. these prediction markets are peer-to-peer. it's just you and i sitting down' 'it's a more level playing field. i can still get the same engagement of betting on sports, but i'm not betting against a vegas book with a line'

why are traders ditching vegas books for prediction markets? 'you're betting against a book. these prediction markets are peer-to-peer. it's just you and i sitting down' 'it's a more level playing field. i can still get the same engagement of betting on sports, but i'm not betting against a vegas book with a line'

macki

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🇺🇸 SEC CHAIR ATKINS: PROJECT CRYPTO IS BRINGING MARKETS ONCHAIN "We are taking historic steps to modernize our rules and regulations to facilitate markets' moving on-chain." Atkins also highlighted the SEC-CFTC agreement as a step toward replacing crypto’s “regulatory no-man’s land” with clearer ground for innovation 💡

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CFTC Chair Michael Selig says he’s not an expert on betting lines and can’t distinguish between ones on sportsbooks and prediction markets. Rep. Vasquez: “That’s exactly the problem, because consumers can’t either though the purpose of the activity is exactly the same.” “I understand the CFTC’s role has been overseeing derivatives markets. Traditionally that has been helping businesses hedge real economic risk. Airlines hedge fuel costs. Farmers hedge crop prices. That is very different than putting money on the outcome of a baseball game. On a prediction market consumers can trade on whether Astros second baseman Jose Altuve hits a home run in tonight’s game against the Rockies. Does a contract on a single player’s performance on a single statistic hedge any real economic risk?” Selig: “Congressman, there are many risks that could be hedged through various contracts on our markets. The bottom line is that these markets need to be well functioning and comprehensively regulated by the CFTC. Our statute mandates it and we’ll continue to do it.”

CFTC Chair Michael Selig says he’s not an expert on betting lines and can’t distinguish between ones on sportsbooks and prediction markets. Rep. Vasquez: “That’s exactly the problem, because consumers can’t either though the purpose of the activity is exactly the same.” “I understand the CFTC’s role has been overseeing derivatives markets. Traditionally that has been helping businesses hedge real economic risk. Airlines hedge fuel costs. Farmers hedge crop prices. That is very different than putting money on the outcome of a baseball game. On a prediction market consumers can trade on whether Astros second baseman Jose Altuve hits a home run in tonight’s game against the Rockies. Does a contract on a single player’s performance on a single statistic hedge any real economic risk?” Selig: “Congressman, there are many risks that could be hedged through various contracts on our markets. The bottom line is that these markets need to be well functioning and comprehensively regulated by the CFTC. Our statute mandates it and we’ll continue to do it.”

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Yellow

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SPK is now available on Revolut across the EU, and UK. This expands access to Spark through one of the largest consumer financial platforms in Europe. Spark is infrastructure for on-chain credit markets, allocating capital across lending markets and liquidity venues through a rules-based framework designed for predictable liquidity and transparent risk. Today, Spark coordinates over $11B in capital powering lending and savings activity across DeFi. More on Spark:

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Event contracts listed on CFTC-registered exchanges are derivatives subject to the CFTC’s exclusive regulatory authority. Whether the contract’s underlying event is sports, politics, corn, or grain, it trades on a federally-regulated exchange with an order book, clearing house, and investor protections. Watch more from House Committee on Agriculture yesterday ⬇️

Event contracts listed on CFTC-registered exchanges are derivatives subject to the CFTC’s exclusive regulatory authority. Whether the contract’s underlying event is sports, politics, corn, or grain, it trades on a federally-regulated exchange with an order book, clearing house, and investor protections. Watch more from House Committee on Agriculture yesterday ⬇️

Mike Selig

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The CFTC takes seriously its responsibility to reject prediction market contracts that are readily susceptible to manipulation and we’re working with the professional sports leagues to ensure we get this right. When a league raises manipulation concerns about a contract proposed to be listed on a prediction market, the agency considers the league’s concerns and may prohibit the contract from being listed. Watch more on ESPN with David Payne Purdum ⬇️

The CFTC takes seriously its responsibility to reject prediction market contracts that are readily susceptible to manipulation and we’re working with the professional sports leagues to ensure we get this right. When a league raises manipulation concerns about a contract proposed to be listed on a prediction market, the agency considers the league’s concerns and may prohibit the contract from being listed. Watch more on ESPN with David Payne Purdum ⬇️

Mike Selig

11,524 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

WOW … Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pulls a Kamala in Munich … how embarrassing for America when this is the best the Democrat Party has to offer.😳😲 Could someone please decipher what she said, because it’s all word-salad to me. “We are in a new day and a new time. But that does not mean that a majority of Americans are willing to walk away from a rules based order and that we’re ready to walk away from our commitment to democracy.” “I think what we identify in a rules based order, hypocrisy is vulnerability and so I think what we are seeking is a return to a rules based order that eliminates the hypocrisies around when too often in the West we look the other way for inconvenient populations to act out, to act out the paradoxes.” The only thing I took from this is a new phrase the leftist want to put into our vocabulary … and that is the phrase … ‘Rules Based Order’

WOW … Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pulls a Kamala in Munich … how embarrassing for America when this is the best the Democrat Party has to offer.😳😲 Could someone please decipher what she said, because it’s all word-salad to me. “We are in a new day and a new time. But that does not mean that a majority of Americans are willing to walk away from a rules based order and that we’re ready to walk away from our commitment to democracy.” “I think what we identify in a rules based order, hypocrisy is vulnerability and so I think what we are seeking is a return to a rules based order that eliminates the hypocrisies around when too often in the West we look the other way for inconvenient populations to act out, to act out the paradoxes.” The only thing I took from this is a new phrase the leftist want to put into our vocabulary … and that is the phrase … ‘Rules Based Order’

C-Reason🇺🇸

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A lot of discussion and announcements around prediction markets: purely for fun, I've built a demo app. Meet Betcha, my attempt to broaden the prediction markets TAM. 📊 Current state: Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are powerful truth-seeking tools because money on the line and arbitrage keep prices honest as new information hits. Most participants today are traders and bettors who are very fee-sensitive, so raising fees will be challenging. Growth has to come from much higher volume, which is achievable, but it will take time. 🏛️ Sportsbook/Regulatory Environment: Because CFTC-regulated event contracts create a potential path into some states that have not legalized sports betting, prediction-market rails can help sportsbooks reach markets they previously could not. Reframing parlays and prop-style outcomes as “predictions” is clever and expands reach from zero revenue in states where they can't operate sportsbooks to something. Still, these products will likely remain volume-constrained, struggling to match a traditional sportsbook’s vig. The positive is that the sportsbooks won't be getting gouged by state-level taxes as part of the process of leveraging prediction markets vs. sportsbooks. I still think this will be an exciting category that emerges, but it will take time. I want to see Polymarket build its own PM sports-specific app to compete here vs whitelabel (cc: Shayne Coplan 🦅) 📈 Market expansion thesis: Stop optimizing just for traders. Try building for the culture that lives on TikTok/Twitter/Reddit. They're already making predictions - just give them a scoreboard and an easier way to participate in returns. 🎪 Behavioral unlock: The mass market will never identify as "bettors." They want social proof, bragging rights, and gamified experiences. Critically, they're far less fee-sensitive when entertainment value is high, and that's the opportunity Prediction markets have a volume and take rate dilemma, and I think fun consumer apps like this can help solve it. Fine-tune the algorithm to serve event contracts I actually care about, let me lock in a pick fast, and build simple social features on top. Anyway, here's my demo. Any feedback/discussion is welcome!

A lot of discussion and announcements around prediction markets: purely for fun, I've built a demo app. Meet Betcha, my attempt to broaden the prediction markets TAM. 📊 Current state: Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are powerful truth-seeking tools because money on the line and arbitrage keep prices honest as new information hits. Most participants today are traders and bettors who are very fee-sensitive, so raising fees will be challenging. Growth has to come from much higher volume, which is achievable, but it will take time. 🏛️ Sportsbook/Regulatory Environment: Because CFTC-regulated event contracts create a potential path into some states that have not legalized sports betting, prediction-market rails can help sportsbooks reach markets they previously could not. Reframing parlays and prop-style outcomes as “predictions” is clever and expands reach from zero revenue in states where they can't operate sportsbooks to something. Still, these products will likely remain volume-constrained, struggling to match a traditional sportsbook’s vig. The positive is that the sportsbooks won't be getting gouged by state-level taxes as part of the process of leveraging prediction markets vs. sportsbooks. I still think this will be an exciting category that emerges, but it will take time. I want to see Polymarket build its own PM sports-specific app to compete here vs whitelabel (cc: Shayne Coplan 🦅) 📈 Market expansion thesis: Stop optimizing just for traders. Try building for the culture that lives on TikTok/Twitter/Reddit. They're already making predictions - just give them a scoreboard and an easier way to participate in returns. 🎪 Behavioral unlock: The mass market will never identify as "bettors." They want social proof, bragging rights, and gamified experiences. Critically, they're far less fee-sensitive when entertainment value is high, and that's the opportunity Prediction markets have a volume and take rate dilemma, and I think fun consumer apps like this can help solve it. Fine-tune the algorithm to serve event contracts I actually care about, let me lock in a pick fast, and build simple social features on top. Anyway, here's my demo. Any feedback/discussion is welcome!

Ryan Wyatt

83,651 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

🚨 NOW: President Trump GOES OFF on Governors trying to crack down against online prediction markets "It is critically important that the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive. Under my leadership, we are setting “rules of the road” that are the Gold Standard for the States." "We cannot have SCUM like Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker setting the rules! Other Countries are after this new form of Financial Market, and we want to remain at the top." "Likewise, and even more importantly, where we are currently the Crypto (Bitcoin, etc.) Capital of the World, other Countries are trying diligently to replace us in that capacity, but we won’t let that happen." "It is a major Industry, and we must protect it. Mike Selig, CFTC Chairman, and respected by all, is doing a great job. Thank you Mike! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

🚨 NOW: President Trump GOES OFF on Governors trying to crack down against online prediction markets "It is critically important that the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive. Under my leadership, we are setting “rules of the road” that are the Gold Standard for the States." "We cannot have SCUM like Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker setting the rules! Other Countries are after this new form of Financial Market, and we want to remain at the top." "Likewise, and even more importantly, where we are currently the Crypto (Bitcoin, etc.) Capital of the World, other Countries are trying diligently to replace us in that capacity, but we won’t let that happen." "It is a major Industry, and we must protect it. Mike Selig, CFTC Chairman, and respected by all, is doing a great job. Thank you Mike! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

Eric Daugherty

59,589 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce