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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The clock everyone should be watching runs out in mid-April... The world released 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to cushion the oil shock. That sounds like a lot until you remember Hormuz normally carries 20 million barrels a day. Do the math. Twenty days of normal flow...

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Mario Nawfal

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143,874 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Energy policy expert and analyst Kevin Book says that “if the Strait [of Hormuz] were to open today, it could still take weeks to bring production back on… maybe months.” “There’s room for the prices to rise as long as the Strait stays closed,” he says. “And then, if we look at the strategic reserve draw, the good news is that we've drawn 400 million barrels out of the oil savings account for the industrialized world. The bad news is, we've drawn 400 million barrels out of the oil savings account for the industrialized world.”
0:45

Energy policy expert and analyst Kevin Book says that “if the Strait [of Hormuz] were to open today, it could still take weeks to bring production back on… maybe months.” “There’s room for the prices to rise as long as the Strait stays closed,” he says. “And then, if we look at the strategic reserve draw, the good news is that we've drawn 400 million barrels out of the oil savings account for the industrialized world. The bad news is, we've drawn 400 million barrels out of the oil savings account for the industrialized world.”

Face The Nation

50,065 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

The EIA just confirmed that, in April, we experienced unplanned shortages of over 15 million barrels of oil per day. This was higher than March, and it's safe to assume May will be higher than April if the Strait remains closed. They go on to forecast we'll have 1.7 million barrels missing by the end of the year. I think that's being optimistic. Full report:
2:02

The EIA just confirmed that, in April, we experienced unplanned shortages of over 15 million barrels of oil per day. This was higher than March, and it's safe to assume May will be higher than April if the Strait remains closed. They go on to forecast we'll have 1.7 million barrels missing by the end of the year. I think that's being optimistic. Full report:

Chris Martenson

24,367 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

THE G7 IS ABOUT TO MAKE THE BIGGEST MISTAKE IN ENERGY MARKET HISTORY This morning, G7 finance ministers are holding an emergency call to discuss dumping 300-400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves onto the market. They think this will fix $108 oil. But it won't. Let me explain why: Let's do the math that nobody on CNBC will do for you. Global oil consumption runs approximately 103 million barrels per day. The Strait of Hormuz closure has removed somewhere between 4 and 6 million barrels per day from available supply. That's happening RIGHT NOW. Iraq has already cut 1.5 million barrels per day because it literally ran out of storage space. Kuwait is cutting production. Bahrain declared force majeure. So take 400 million barrels - the high end of what they're discussing - and divide it by the daily supply gap. You get roughly 67 to 100 days of coverage. Two to three months. That's it. That's the whole plan. And then what? You can't release reserves you've already released. The market figured this out in about 4 hours. Oil spiked over 20% overnight, the G7 leak hit the wires, and prices pulled back to... still up 12-15%. Traders looked at the arithmetic and said: "Thanks, but that doesn't solve anything." And they're right. Here's the part that should terrify you: The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at roughly 411 million barrels. That sounds like a lot until you remember it held 727 million barrels at its peak. The previous administration drained 180 million barrels in 2022 to fight $90 oil. That release bought consumers about 18 cents per gallon of relief. THIS disruption is structurally larger, geographically more dangerous, and has no visible end date. In 2022, the threat was Russian supply being redirected. Tankers still moved. Alternatives existed. The Strait of Hormuz was wide open. Today, the world's most critical energy chokepoint is effectively closed. And that not by a naval blockade but by insurance companies refusing to cover ships transiting it. And the political situation just got worse, not better. The conditions for oil to return to pre-war levels require the Strait to reopen, Iraqi production to restore, and Gulf shipping insurance to normalize. NONE of those conditions are achievable through reserve releases. They require the conflict to end or dramatically de-escalate. Nothing happening right now suggests either outcome. For 45 years I've watched governments try to solve structural supply problems with temporary demand-side gimmicks. It never works. It didn't work in the 1970s when Nixon tried price controls. It didn't work in 2022 when Biden drained the SPR. And it won't work now. Strategic reserves exist for genuine emergencies. This IS a genuine emergency. But using 25-30% of the world's total strategic stockpile (roughly a third of the entire 1.2 billion barrel IEA reserve) when the underlying crisis has no resolution in sight isn't strategy... It's PANIC. The smart money isn't waiting for G7 announcements. They're looking at what happens in 90 days when the reserves are depleted, the Strait is still closed, and the new Supreme Leader is still in power: Energy stocks. Gold. Silver. Real assets that don't depend on politicians solving a military conflict with a spreadsheet. The G7 can release every barrel they have. It doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't bring stability to Iran. It doesn't fix a 4-6 million barrel per day supply gap that grows wider every week. Arithmetic doesn't care about press conferences. And neither should you.
1:46

THE G7 IS ABOUT TO MAKE THE BIGGEST MISTAKE IN ENERGY MARKET HISTORY This morning, G7 finance ministers are holding an emergency call to discuss dumping 300-400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves onto the market. They think this will fix $108 oil. But it won't. Let me explain why: Let's do the math that nobody on CNBC will do for you. Global oil consumption runs approximately 103 million barrels per day. The Strait of Hormuz closure has removed somewhere between 4 and 6 million barrels per day from available supply. That's happening RIGHT NOW. Iraq has already cut 1.5 million barrels per day because it literally ran out of storage space. Kuwait is cutting production. Bahrain declared force majeure. So take 400 million barrels - the high end of what they're discussing - and divide it by the daily supply gap. You get roughly 67 to 100 days of coverage. Two to three months. That's it. That's the whole plan. And then what? You can't release reserves you've already released. The market figured this out in about 4 hours. Oil spiked over 20% overnight, the G7 leak hit the wires, and prices pulled back to... still up 12-15%. Traders looked at the arithmetic and said: "Thanks, but that doesn't solve anything." And they're right. Here's the part that should terrify you: The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at roughly 411 million barrels. That sounds like a lot until you remember it held 727 million barrels at its peak. The previous administration drained 180 million barrels in 2022 to fight $90 oil. That release bought consumers about 18 cents per gallon of relief. THIS disruption is structurally larger, geographically more dangerous, and has no visible end date. In 2022, the threat was Russian supply being redirected. Tankers still moved. Alternatives existed. The Strait of Hormuz was wide open. Today, the world's most critical energy chokepoint is effectively closed. And that not by a naval blockade but by insurance companies refusing to cover ships transiting it. And the political situation just got worse, not better. The conditions for oil to return to pre-war levels require the Strait to reopen, Iraqi production to restore, and Gulf shipping insurance to normalize. NONE of those conditions are achievable through reserve releases. They require the conflict to end or dramatically de-escalate. Nothing happening right now suggests either outcome. For 45 years I've watched governments try to solve structural supply problems with temporary demand-side gimmicks. It never works. It didn't work in the 1970s when Nixon tried price controls. It didn't work in 2022 when Biden drained the SPR. And it won't work now. Strategic reserves exist for genuine emergencies. This IS a genuine emergency. But using 25-30% of the world's total strategic stockpile (roughly a third of the entire 1.2 billion barrel IEA reserve) when the underlying crisis has no resolution in sight isn't strategy... It's PANIC. The smart money isn't waiting for G7 announcements. They're looking at what happens in 90 days when the reserves are depleted, the Strait is still closed, and the new Supreme Leader is still in power: Energy stocks. Gold. Silver. Real assets that don't depend on politicians solving a military conflict with a spreadsheet. The G7 can release every barrel they have. It doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't bring stability to Iran. It doesn't fix a 4-6 million barrel per day supply gap that grows wider every week. Arithmetic doesn't care about press conferences. And neither should you.

George Noble

252,530 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 The IEA agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of crude oil in response to the disruption. 400 million barrels sounds like a lot. It's actually 4 days of global oil consumption. What strategic petroleum reserves actually are is a pressure valve. They exist to bridge a short disruption: a hurricane, a pipeline explosion, a temporary supply shock... while markets stabilize and production adjusts. They were never designed for a sustained war in the world's most oil-dense geography. Use it now and you arrive at the next crisis empty-handed. And the next crisis is already visible. Iran's export capacity (1.5 million barrels a day before this started) is disrupted. Strait of Hormuz traffic is being rerouted, delayed, repriced. Every tanker captain in the Persian Gulf is doing their own risk calculus right now. There's a specific moment in every resource crisis where the emergency measure becomes the emergency. Where the thing you deployed to buy confidence starts destroying it instead. 400 million barrels released in a single announcement. The world just showed its hand. Al Jazeera
1:04

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 The IEA agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of crude oil in response to the disruption. 400 million barrels sounds like a lot. It's actually 4 days of global oil consumption. What strategic petroleum reserves actually are is a pressure valve. They exist to bridge a short disruption: a hurricane, a pipeline explosion, a temporary supply shock... while markets stabilize and production adjusts. They were never designed for a sustained war in the world's most oil-dense geography. Use it now and you arrive at the next crisis empty-handed. And the next crisis is already visible. Iran's export capacity (1.5 million barrels a day before this started) is disrupted. Strait of Hormuz traffic is being rerouted, delayed, repriced. Every tanker captain in the Persian Gulf is doing their own risk calculus right now. There's a specific moment in every resource crisis where the emergency measure becomes the emergency. Where the thing you deployed to buy confidence starts destroying it instead. 400 million barrels released in a single announcement. The world just showed its hand. Al Jazeera

Mario Nawfal

376,721 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

IRGC General Jabari says the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that any ship attempting to pass will be set ablaze by Iranian naval forces. He says oil pipelines will be struck, no exports will be allowed from the region, and oil will hit $200 in the coming days. He adds that the world was taking 20 million barrels a day through the strait, and now nothing will move. Anyone entering the area will face a decisive response, pipelines will be hit, and not a single drop of oil will reach American markets.
0:41

IRGC General Jabari says the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that any ship attempting to pass will be set ablaze by Iranian naval forces. He says oil pipelines will be struck, no exports will be allowed from the region, and oil will hit $200 in the coming days. He adds that the world was taking 20 million barrels a day through the strait, and now nothing will move. Anyone entering the area will face a decisive response, pipelines will be hit, and not a single drop of oil will reach American markets.

Thomas Keith

13,074 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

🚨 UPDATE: JD Vance has just CONFIRMED to the world that the United States is extracting up to 15 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL from the Strait of Hormuz on some days, despite Iran trying to block it "A LOT of people aren't covering this...we're getting out some days 15 million barrels." 🔥🔥 "Iran DOESN'T have this ability to choke off trade, which REDUCES their leverage!" "We're preventing an energy crisis the Iranians are trying to create." Imagine when all the pipelines are done!
0:48

🚨 UPDATE: JD Vance has just CONFIRMED to the world that the United States is extracting up to 15 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL from the Strait of Hormuz on some days, despite Iran trying to block it "A LOT of people aren't covering this...we're getting out some days 15 million barrels." 🔥🔥 "Iran DOESN'T have this ability to choke off trade, which REDUCES their leverage!" "We're preventing an energy crisis the Iranians are trying to create." Imagine when all the pipelines are done!

Eric Daugherty

154,288 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Trump administration just dropped an Iran meme that has the whole world hoping they will be a million times better at negotiating an end to war. Ex-U.S. Navy Malcolm Nance suggested that Trump is stuck in fantasy land while the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz threatens to destabilize the U.S. "The U.S. is 2 to 3 million barrels of oil in the hole. So we have to buy that from Russia, or Canada, or someplace; it's not coming. And what oil companies in the U.S. are doing is selling off oil from the American government and the reserve to the highest bidder. Those oil tankers that are coming are going to other countries." Malcolm Nance
12:07

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Trump administration just dropped an Iran meme that has the whole world hoping they will be a million times better at negotiating an end to war. Ex-U.S. Navy Malcolm Nance suggested that Trump is stuck in fantasy land while the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz threatens to destabilize the U.S. "The U.S. is 2 to 3 million barrels of oil in the hole. So we have to buy that from Russia, or Canada, or someplace; it's not coming. And what oil companies in the U.S. are doing is selling off oil from the American government and the reserve to the highest bidder. Those oil tankers that are coming are going to other countries." Malcolm Nance

Mario Nawfal

78,088 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

In 2023, the Saudi Crown Prince (MBS) made strong statements about the future of competing oil-producing countries: “For example, the United States will not be an oil-producing country in ten years. Today it produces around 11 million barrels per day; in ten years, it will barely produce 2 million barrels. China currently produces about 4 million barrels domestically, but within four to seven years it will be producing close to zero by 2030, or only a marginal amount. Russia today produces around 11 million barrels, but in 19 years it will produce about 1 million barrels, or slightly more or less. So, supply will decline much more sharply than demand. Oil demand is expected to grow through 2030 and continue growing to 2040 according to most analysts, but supply will start to decline gradually within five years. This means that, in the future, it will fall on Saudi Arabia to increase its production to meet global oil demand. This is a promising aspect, but we should not rely on it alone.” And after three years, this vision is becoming clearer: both Russia and the United States are striving hard to secure even a small share of the future global energy market. Saudi Arabia had already anticipated this scenario forty years ago by building pipelines to transport and export oil via the Red Sea at full production capacity, without the need to rely on the Strait of Hormuz.
0:54

In 2023, the Saudi Crown Prince (MBS) made strong statements about the future of competing oil-producing countries: “For example, the United States will not be an oil-producing country in ten years. Today it produces around 11 million barrels per day; in ten years, it will barely produce 2 million barrels. China currently produces about 4 million barrels domestically, but within four to seven years it will be producing close to zero by 2030, or only a marginal amount. Russia today produces around 11 million barrels, but in 19 years it will produce about 1 million barrels, or slightly more or less. So, supply will decline much more sharply than demand. Oil demand is expected to grow through 2030 and continue growing to 2040 according to most analysts, but supply will start to decline gradually within five years. This means that, in the future, it will fall on Saudi Arabia to increase its production to meet global oil demand. This is a promising aspect, but we should not rely on it alone.” And after three years, this vision is becoming clearer: both Russia and the United States are striving hard to secure even a small share of the future global energy market. Saudi Arabia had already anticipated this scenario forty years ago by building pipelines to transport and export oil via the Red Sea at full production capacity, without the need to rely on the Strait of Hormuz.

🇸🇦

155,195 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

🚨The number that should terrify you is 7.8 billion barrels Global oil inventories started this crisis around 8.2 billion barrels. Six weeks of Hormuz disruption have drawn them down to roughly 8.0 billion. The draws are accelerating, running at 10+ million barrels per day in some weeks despite strategic reserve releases. Energy analysts are now circulating a threshold: 7.8 billion barrels. Below that, the system tips from "high prices" to "actual shortages." Refineries can't run on empty. Floating storage takes time to access. Regional imbalances mean Asia runs dry before anyone else. One estimate called 18 days "generous" before we cross that line. And that assumes draws stay linear... Source: HFI Research
0:21

🚨The number that should terrify you is 7.8 billion barrels Global oil inventories started this crisis around 8.2 billion barrels. Six weeks of Hormuz disruption have drawn them down to roughly 8.0 billion. The draws are accelerating, running at 10+ million barrels per day in some weeks despite strategic reserve releases. Energy analysts are now circulating a threshold: 7.8 billion barrels. Below that, the system tips from "high prices" to "actual shortages." Refineries can't run on empty. Floating storage takes time to access. Regional imbalances mean Asia runs dry before anyone else. One estimate called 18 days "generous" before we cross that line. And that assumes draws stay linear... Source: HFI Research

Mario Nawfal

198,755 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

NBC News’ Kristen Welker: “You’re talking about 140 million barrels of Iranian oil, and that’s just a little bit more than what the world uses in one day. How much can that really change prices here at home —” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: “Again, Kristen, terrible framing, terrible framing. No, no, no — prices here at home?” “Let me explain. 140 million barrels — about 20 million barrels a day — comes out of the Gulf. About five million has been the uh, repurposed by the Saudis, by the UAE. So, we’re at a 15 deficit. About 1.5 is Iranian oil that comes out. So, we are at between a 10 and 14 million deficit on a daily basis.” “If you think about 140 million barrels, that’s between 10 days and two weeks of supply. And one of the reasons, one of the reasons that prices in the U.S. of West Texas crude are below $100 — and we have not seen this massive spike as we did during the beginning of Russia/Ukraine — is because we are well supplied in the market, whether it is the Russian oil, whether it is the Iranian oil, or it is the largest the SPR release in history done by a coalition of 32 countries, 400 million barrels.”
1:25

NBC News’ Kristen Welker: “You’re talking about 140 million barrels of Iranian oil, and that’s just a little bit more than what the world uses in one day. How much can that really change prices here at home —” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: “Again, Kristen, terrible framing, terrible framing. No, no, no — prices here at home?” “Let me explain. 140 million barrels — about 20 million barrels a day — comes out of the Gulf. About five million has been the uh, repurposed by the Saudis, by the UAE. So, we’re at a 15 deficit. About 1.5 is Iranian oil that comes out. So, we are at between a 10 and 14 million deficit on a daily basis.” “If you think about 140 million barrels, that’s between 10 days and two weeks of supply. And one of the reasons, one of the reasons that prices in the U.S. of West Texas crude are below $100 — and we have not seen this massive spike as we did during the beginning of Russia/Ukraine — is because we are well supplied in the market, whether it is the Russian oil, whether it is the Iranian oil, or it is the largest the SPR release in history done by a coalition of 32 countries, 400 million barrels.”

RedWave Press

664,112 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline, which carries about 4 million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, was shut down Friday. The number that should worry people isn't the 4%, it's the 5 to 7 days. A damaged pipeline is a supply problem with a known fix; a stockpile that runs out before the fix is finished is a price shock... because oil already loaded on ships doesn't care how fast Saudi Arabia's repair crews work. This pipeline exists specifically because it lets Saudi oil skip the Strait of Hormuz, so its outage doesn't just remove 4% of world supply, it removes the one workaround that was keeping that other 4-6% moving too. And the timing isn't isolated: Houthi fighters reportedly seized a Red Sea island the same day.
0:59

Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline, which carries about 4 million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, was shut down Friday. The number that should worry people isn't the 4%, it's the 5 to 7 days. A damaged pipeline is a supply problem with a known fix; a stockpile that runs out before the fix is finished is a price shock... because oil already loaded on ships doesn't care how fast Saudi Arabia's repair crews work. This pipeline exists specifically because it lets Saudi oil skip the Strait of Hormuz, so its outage doesn't just remove 4% of world supply, it removes the one workaround that was keeping that other 4-6% moving too. And the timing isn't isolated: Houthi fighters reportedly seized a Red Sea island the same day.

Donald J Trump Posts TruthSocial

214,884 görüntüleme • 23 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump’s message on the Strait of Hormuz: Iran has little room to move. Trump: “Today, [oil] is at $90 a barrel, and the last few days we've taken out more oil from the Strait of Hormuz. Our Navy is unbelieveable, we're the only ones that can get through, or somebody that we want. Iran hasnt had one ship in months... We’re taking out millions and millions of barrels of oil, and Iran doesn’t have much they can do.” Oil traders just got plenty to chew on. Writer: Val
1:41

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump’s message on the Strait of Hormuz: Iran has little room to move. Trump: “Today, [oil] is at $90 a barrel, and the last few days we've taken out more oil from the Strait of Hormuz. Our Navy is unbelieveable, we're the only ones that can get through, or somebody that we want. Iran hasnt had one ship in months... We’re taking out millions and millions of barrels of oil, and Iran doesn’t have much they can do.” Oil traders just got plenty to chew on. Writer: Val

Mario Nawfal

45,368 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce

🚨 HOLY CRAP! JD Vance just exposed that he knows who the European leaders are that publicly attack President Trump yet privately SUCK UP to him over denuclearizing Iran They're cowards, too afraid to show! "What a number of other countries have begged us not to do, including those in EUROPE who will PUBLICLY criticize us on the one hand, but then privately acknowledge that if we weren't doing what we were doing, nobody else in the world could do it!" "We are the only country in the world that can ensure, as you heard the President say, the control over the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranians would like zero million barrels to come out of the Strait of Hormuz. Last night, 15 million barrels came out of the Strait of Hormuz." "That's because of the United States of America, and if we don't do it, nobody else would do it."
0:47

🚨 HOLY CRAP! JD Vance just exposed that he knows who the European leaders are that publicly attack President Trump yet privately SUCK UP to him over denuclearizing Iran They're cowards, too afraid to show! "What a number of other countries have begged us not to do, including those in EUROPE who will PUBLICLY criticize us on the one hand, but then privately acknowledge that if we weren't doing what we were doing, nobody else in the world could do it!" "We are the only country in the world that can ensure, as you heard the President say, the control over the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranians would like zero million barrels to come out of the Strait of Hormuz. Last night, 15 million barrels came out of the Strait of Hormuz." "That's because of the United States of America, and if we don't do it, nobody else would do it."

Eric Daugherty

44,366 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

CRUDE SHORTAGE WHIPLASH: WHY OIL PRICES WILL SPIKE AFTER THE BACKLOG CLEARS IN DAYS Troy Eckard of Enterprises Oil & Gas Investing has just revealed why the headlines about record crude oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz are misleading at best. What looks like a sudden flood of supply is actually the release of oil that has been loaded and waiting for nearly four months. This temporary surge is masking a much deeper supply problem that the world has been papering over with strategic reserves. Once the backlog is gone, the real supply picture will come into focus fast. THE HORMUZ BACKLOG REALITY ➡️ The recent movement of 19.1 million barrels per day is not new oil from opened wells or increased production. ➡️ It is not coming from storage tanks sitting at the ports ready to go. ➡️ Every single barrel was loaded onto tankers before the strait closed and has been stuck waiting for safe passage. ➡️ The main body of the strait is still not open and remains full of mines. ➡️ Only a narrow pathway is being used to let these long-delayed vessels through. THE SCALE OF WHAT JUST MOVED ➡️ When the strait closed, estimates show 110 to 120 million barrels of oil were trapped on vessels behind the gate. ➡️ That amount equals just one day of total global consumption at 104 million barrels per day. ➡️ At the pace seen recently, that entire backlog will clear in roughly five to six days. ➡️ After those days pass, there will be no equivalent volume of new oil taking its place. THE FOUR-MONTH SUPPLY HOLE ➡️ The closure created a massive 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrel deficit over almost four months. ➡️ The world responded by draining strategic reserves, pipelines, and every available storage to prevent prices from reaching 150 or 200 dollars. ➡️ That emergency action suppressed prices and created the current calm at around 70 dollars and fifty cents. ➡️ But those reserves cannot be drained indefinitely. THE PRICE ILLUSION ➡️ Oil trading near 70 dollars today exists because traders are dumping positions on the back of this one-time inventory release. ➡️ The media is calling it a solution and record progress through the strait. ➡️ In truth, production has not ramped up and new infrastructure is still months away from delivering. ➡️ This is a pretend moment of adequate supply that will not last. THE COMING WHIPLASH ➡️ In five to eight days the extra 100 million barrels of backlog oil will be absorbed into the global supply chain. ➡️ Physical buyers needing real barrels for customers will then enter the market in force. ➡️ A daily shortfall of 8 to 12 million barrels could become clear within three to four weeks. ➡️ The shift from trader covering losses to genuine physical demand will create a sharp reversal. THE BOTTOM LINE The recent drop in oil prices is riding on the final escape of oil that was already in the system long before the recent disruptions. That temporary relief is ending fast, and the underlying four-month supply hole remains unfilled. The market is about to discover that celebrating this surge was premature. This is the sound of the real supply picture reasserting itself. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #OilPrices #HormuzBacklog #CrudeOilReality #SupplyShortage #EnergyMarkets #OilWhiplash
0:49

CRUDE SHORTAGE WHIPLASH: WHY OIL PRICES WILL SPIKE AFTER THE BACKLOG CLEARS IN DAYS Troy Eckard of Enterprises Oil & Gas Investing has just revealed why the headlines about record crude oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz are misleading at best. What looks like a sudden flood of supply is actually the release of oil that has been loaded and waiting for nearly four months. This temporary surge is masking a much deeper supply problem that the world has been papering over with strategic reserves. Once the backlog is gone, the real supply picture will come into focus fast. THE HORMUZ BACKLOG REALITY ➡️ The recent movement of 19.1 million barrels per day is not new oil from opened wells or increased production. ➡️ It is not coming from storage tanks sitting at the ports ready to go. ➡️ Every single barrel was loaded onto tankers before the strait closed and has been stuck waiting for safe passage. ➡️ The main body of the strait is still not open and remains full of mines. ➡️ Only a narrow pathway is being used to let these long-delayed vessels through. THE SCALE OF WHAT JUST MOVED ➡️ When the strait closed, estimates show 110 to 120 million barrels of oil were trapped on vessels behind the gate. ➡️ That amount equals just one day of total global consumption at 104 million barrels per day. ➡️ At the pace seen recently, that entire backlog will clear in roughly five to six days. ➡️ After those days pass, there will be no equivalent volume of new oil taking its place. THE FOUR-MONTH SUPPLY HOLE ➡️ The closure created a massive 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrel deficit over almost four months. ➡️ The world responded by draining strategic reserves, pipelines, and every available storage to prevent prices from reaching 150 or 200 dollars. ➡️ That emergency action suppressed prices and created the current calm at around 70 dollars and fifty cents. ➡️ But those reserves cannot be drained indefinitely. THE PRICE ILLUSION ➡️ Oil trading near 70 dollars today exists because traders are dumping positions on the back of this one-time inventory release. ➡️ The media is calling it a solution and record progress through the strait. ➡️ In truth, production has not ramped up and new infrastructure is still months away from delivering. ➡️ This is a pretend moment of adequate supply that will not last. THE COMING WHIPLASH ➡️ In five to eight days the extra 100 million barrels of backlog oil will be absorbed into the global supply chain. ➡️ Physical buyers needing real barrels for customers will then enter the market in force. ➡️ A daily shortfall of 8 to 12 million barrels could become clear within three to four weeks. ➡️ The shift from trader covering losses to genuine physical demand will create a sharp reversal. THE BOTTOM LINE The recent drop in oil prices is riding on the final escape of oil that was already in the system long before the recent disruptions. That temporary relief is ending fast, and the underlying four-month supply hole remains unfilled. The market is about to discover that celebrating this surge was premature. This is the sound of the real supply picture reasserting itself. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #OilPrices #HormuzBacklog #CrudeOilReality #SupplyShortage #EnergyMarkets #OilWhiplash

Mark

73,884 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

The global economy has absorbed months of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. How much longer can it hold up? Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew tells Drop Site that more oil is moving through the strait, but a shortfall of 3 million to 4 million barrels a day remains. Stockpiles and some reduced consumption have helped fill the gap. But if that shortfall and high shipping costs persist into mid-2027, he warns, the pressure on prices will begin to show in the global economy. Gregory Brew | Murtaza Hussain
3:37

The global economy has absorbed months of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. How much longer can it hold up? Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew tells Drop Site that more oil is moving through the strait, but a shortfall of 3 million to 4 million barrels a day remains. Stockpiles and some reduced consumption have helped fill the gap. But if that shortfall and high shipping costs persist into mid-2027, he warns, the pressure on prices will begin to show in the global economy. Gregory Brew | Murtaza Hussain

Drop Site

20,213 görüntüleme • 9 gün önce

Sachs: This is a brazen US and Israeli attack on the whole world because it will bring down the world economy. Russia and China understand that this is a war of American global hegemony. And the US system is so broken that it’s like Rome being in the hands of Nero or Caligula. We’re on the way to a global economic catastrophe. Give it another few weeks: the production of gas and oil will be shut down. The facilities for transporting that gas and oil will be destroyed. The port facilities will be destroyed, and the Strait of Hormuz will still be closed. That will lead to a massive global economic crisis. Clearly, this would be a worldwide economic shock of enormous proportions.
0:58

Sachs: This is a brazen US and Israeli attack on the whole world because it will bring down the world economy. Russia and China understand that this is a war of American global hegemony. And the US system is so broken that it’s like Rome being in the hands of Nero or Caligula. We’re on the way to a global economic catastrophe. Give it another few weeks: the production of gas and oil will be shut down. The facilities for transporting that gas and oil will be destroyed. The port facilities will be destroyed, and the Strait of Hormuz will still be closed. That will lead to a massive global economic crisis. Clearly, this would be a worldwide economic shock of enormous proportions.

🅰pocalypsis 🅰pocalypseos 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🅉

35,309 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱🇶🇦🇸🇦 Israel crossed Iran's energy red line by striking the South Pars gas field, and now both sides are torching each other's energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Iran fired back at Israel's Haifa refinery, Qatar's Ras Laffan (the world's largest LNG plant), plus refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Israel went after facilities that produce 730 million cubic meters of gas daily. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively dead. Traffic dropped 96% in the first 18 days of war, from thousands of transits to just 98. Saudi Arabia is now desperately pumping oil west through pipelines to Yanbu on the Red Sea to bypass the strait. If Iran hits Yanbu, analysts say 5-6 million barrels a day disappear from global markets and oil could hit $150. Brent crude has already jumped from the $70s to $115 since the war started. Every major energy facility that gets hit pushes prices higher. This is now a global energy crisis that's about to slam inflation and interest rates worldwide. Source: Wall Street Journal
0:09

🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱🇶🇦🇸🇦 Israel crossed Iran's energy red line by striking the South Pars gas field, and now both sides are torching each other's energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Iran fired back at Israel's Haifa refinery, Qatar's Ras Laffan (the world's largest LNG plant), plus refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Israel went after facilities that produce 730 million cubic meters of gas daily. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively dead. Traffic dropped 96% in the first 18 days of war, from thousands of transits to just 98. Saudi Arabia is now desperately pumping oil west through pipelines to Yanbu on the Red Sea to bypass the strait. If Iran hits Yanbu, analysts say 5-6 million barrels a day disappear from global markets and oil could hit $150. Brent crude has already jumped from the $70s to $115 since the war started. Every major energy facility that gets hit pushes prices higher. This is now a global energy crisis that's about to slam inflation and interest rates worldwide. Source: Wall Street Journal

Mario Nawfal

237,381 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Dangote Refinery Receives Its Maiden Crude Cargo - Rotus Oddiri In a major step towards boosting Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity and attaining energy security (self-sufficiency), Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals plant has purchased 1 million barrels of Agbami crude grade from Shell International Trading and Shipping Company Limited (STASCO), one of the largest trading companies in Nigeria as well as globally, trading over 8 million barrels of crude oil per day. The STASCO cargo contained 1 million barrels from Agbami and sailed to Dangote Refinery’s Single Point Mooring (SPM) where it was discharged into the refinery’s crude oil tanks. The maiden 1 million barrels, which represent the first phase of the 6 million barrels of crude oil to be supplied to Dangote Petroleum Refinery by a range of suppliers, should sustain the initial 350,000 barrels per day to be processed by the facility. The next four cargoes will be supplied by the NNPC in two to three weeks and the final of the six cargoes will be supplied by ExxonMobil.
19:55

Dangote Refinery Receives Its Maiden Crude Cargo - Rotus Oddiri In a major step towards boosting Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity and attaining energy security (self-sufficiency), Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals plant has purchased 1 million barrels of Agbami crude grade from Shell International Trading and Shipping Company Limited (STASCO), one of the largest trading companies in Nigeria as well as globally, trading over 8 million barrels of crude oil per day. The STASCO cargo contained 1 million barrels from Agbami and sailed to Dangote Refinery’s Single Point Mooring (SPM) where it was discharged into the refinery’s crude oil tanks. The maiden 1 million barrels, which represent the first phase of the 6 million barrels of crude oil to be supplied to Dangote Petroleum Refinery by a range of suppliers, should sustain the initial 350,000 barrels per day to be processed by the facility. The next four cargoes will be supplied by the NNPC in two to three weeks and the final of the six cargoes will be supplied by ExxonMobil.

Imran Muhammad

53,271 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

🇮🇷 With Hormuz closed, how are Gulf countries exporting their oil? Short answer: with duct tape, wishful thinking, and a few backup pipes. Saudi Arabia pumps oil west to the Red Sea and hopes the Suez Canal keeps things moving. The UAE sneaks some barrels out via Fujairah, neatly dodging the chokepoint. Iraq sends a portion north to Turkey like it’s using a side door. Kuwait and Qatar? They’re basically stuck staring at a closed gate. But all these workarounds combined move ~6–7 million barrels per day… vs ~20 million that normally go through Hormuz. So yeah, gas prices won't be coming down soon. Source: Aufiora
0:37

🇮🇷 With Hormuz closed, how are Gulf countries exporting their oil? Short answer: with duct tape, wishful thinking, and a few backup pipes. Saudi Arabia pumps oil west to the Red Sea and hopes the Suez Canal keeps things moving. The UAE sneaks some barrels out via Fujairah, neatly dodging the chokepoint. Iraq sends a portion north to Turkey like it’s using a side door. Kuwait and Qatar? They’re basically stuck staring at a closed gate. But all these workarounds combined move ~6–7 million barrels per day… vs ~20 million that normally go through Hormuz. So yeah, gas prices won't be coming down soon. Source: Aufiora

Mario Nawfal

194,834 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce