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The Coatue framework for how SpaceX's value per launch scales with cadence. More launches means more constellations, more subscribers, and more recurring revenue. Companies, governments, and militaries are increasingly looking to own their own infrastructure. Thomas Laffont (coatue.thomas) at the All-In Liquidity Summit. ⬇️

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COATUE

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13,854 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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The Power Law Paradox: you're more likely to 10x at scale. → 8% of unicorns reach decacorn status. → 13% of decacorns reach $100B. → 31% of $100B companies have gone on to 10x. The conventional wisdom: early-stage has the best returns. The data: you're more likely to 10x at scale. Thomas Laffont (coatue.thomas) at The All-In Podcast Liquidity Summit. Full video in the comments ⬇️.
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The Power Law Paradox: you're more likely to 10x at scale. → 8% of unicorns reach decacorn status. → 13% of decacorns reach $100B. → 31% of $100B companies have gone on to 10x. The conventional wisdom: early-stage has the best returns. The data: you're more likely to 10x at scale. Thomas Laffont (coatue.thomas) at The All-In Podcast Liquidity Summit. Full video in the comments ⬇️.

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Thomas Laffont on how Coatue values SpaceX: “The quality of SpaceX's business model increases the more they launch.” “The number one driver correlated to the valuation of SpaceX is cadence of launches, which intuitively makes sense. If your business is the launch business, the more you launch, the higher your value should be. So I think we see that in the data. But there's another fundamentally different ratio that I want to point you to, which is, what if we took the valuation, we divided it by the number of launches, what would that look like? Well, you can see it was kind of in a fixed range for a while, and then it really started to move up. And we believe that markets are rational, and so we started thinking, well, why is it that the market is valuing SpaceX higher on a per launch basis when it's launching more than when it was just starting out? And my fundamental view, and we'll kind of call this our Coatue framework, is that the quality of SpaceX's business model increases the more you launch. So in phase one, which we call pre-constellation, you're just trying your rockets. And we know rockets are hard, and maybe you have a few government customers, and that's a one-time revenue business, and it's unpredictable. Then you get into your initial ramp, and now you might have one constellation. So why is a constellation important? Well, it's an end market and it's a recurring revenue business. The more satellites you put up, the more subscribers you have, the more revenue, etc. Now you can move from ramp into scale. Now you don't just have one constellation, you have multiple constellations. So now you move into being a scaled business, which ultimately becomes a platform. And we know how valuable these platforms are in this technology age. And platform means not only do you have many more customers in your core business, but you also have new businesses. It could be space datacenters, it could be the optionality of the Moon and Mars, and other space applications.” Elon Musk SpaceX $SPCX --------------------------------------- Thanks to our partners for making this possible! EY (EY) - Great tech starts with a big idea. From startup to scale, EY helps tech founders get financials right early so they can focus on what’s next. NYSE (NYSE 🏛) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.
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Thomas Laffont on how Coatue values SpaceX: “The quality of SpaceX's business model increases the more they launch.” “The number one driver correlated to the valuation of SpaceX is cadence of launches, which intuitively makes sense. If your business is the launch business, the more you launch, the higher your value should be. So I think we see that in the data. But there's another fundamentally different ratio that I want to point you to, which is, what if we took the valuation, we divided it by the number of launches, what would that look like? Well, you can see it was kind of in a fixed range for a while, and then it really started to move up. And we believe that markets are rational, and so we started thinking, well, why is it that the market is valuing SpaceX higher on a per launch basis when it's launching more than when it was just starting out? And my fundamental view, and we'll kind of call this our Coatue framework, is that the quality of SpaceX's business model increases the more you launch. So in phase one, which we call pre-constellation, you're just trying your rockets. And we know rockets are hard, and maybe you have a few government customers, and that's a one-time revenue business, and it's unpredictable. Then you get into your initial ramp, and now you might have one constellation. So why is a constellation important? Well, it's an end market and it's a recurring revenue business. The more satellites you put up, the more subscribers you have, the more revenue, etc. Now you can move from ramp into scale. Now you don't just have one constellation, you have multiple constellations. So now you move into being a scaled business, which ultimately becomes a platform. And we know how valuable these platforms are in this technology age. And platform means not only do you have many more customers in your core business, but you also have new businesses. It could be space datacenters, it could be the optionality of the Moon and Mars, and other space applications.” Elon Musk SpaceX $SPCX --------------------------------------- Thanks to our partners for making this possible! EY (EY) - Great tech starts with a big idea. From startup to scale, EY helps tech founders get financials right early so they can focus on what’s next. NYSE (NYSE 🏛) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.

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