The data points available do not reflect a situation in which the protesters are entirely peaceful, or the regime only clamps down on violent protesters. Reality appears far less neat. The government has clearly clamped down extremely brutally in the darkness of the internet shutdown. But evidence is also... emerging of brutal violence from elements within the protesters as well - levels of violence rarely seen in previous protests. In this clip, a group of protesters appears to have beaten up a police officer and then set him on fire. A young woman is seen filming it. Later, another group of protesters beat and kicked a lifeless person lying on the ground. Protesters are also seen throwing Molotov cocktails and setting buildings on fire. In the past, once protests turned violent (in 2009, this took several weeks and was on a smaller scale), it tended to repel other protesters and result in smaller but more radicalized demonstrations. Anger today, however, is at a completely different level, so a larger sway of the protesters may view violence as acceptable (anecdotally, there is a growing view in certain quarters that violence is necessary, based on past failures to overthrow the regime) All in all, when also taking into account the geopolitical situation in which a) Israel seeks a destabilized Iran, b) Trump showing a growing inclination to strike Iran militarily, c) pro-Israel elements in Washington declaring that the protesters will be receiving arms from the outside, the risk of the Syrianization of Iran cannot easily be dismissed. Everyone I have spoken to expresses both hope and fear. Hope, because some form of change is deemed necessary, and fear, because it is wishful thinking to dismiss the grave risks associated with the situation.show more

Trita Parsi

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