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The Feed — 8/13/26 - SpaceX reportedly passes the first “key tests” for America’s Golden Dome - Elon Musk says Grok 4.7 will “exceed all current models” and be ready in 3–4 weeks - Crypto: Trezor discloses a customer data breach affecting 11,742 hardware wallet buyers, while Hyperliquid seeks...

47,079 görüntüleme • 10 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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📹 Pavel Durov, in his first video interview in seven years, revealed to Tucker Carlson some fascinating facts about Telegram Messenger, doing business in Dubai and his personal crypto wealth: • Pavel Durov launched ВКонтакте (Russian social media platform) at the age of 21 but had to sell the company and leave the country after refusing to share user data with the Russian authorities. • Durov says his life goal is to give people freedom and privacy. • Telegram is not controlled by the Russian or U.S. governments, yet the FBI allegedly tried to create a backdoor in Telegram Messenger by recruiting one of its developers. Agents also meet Durov at the airport and ask him questions whenever he comes to the United States. • Once, he fought three robbers who tried to steal his phone in San Francisco after meeting Jack Dorsey, the former CEO of Twitter. • Partially because of that and the attention from U.S. agencies, he decided not to HQ his company there. He was also put off by the bureaucracy in Germany, Britain and Singapore and opted for Dubai as a neutral ground. • Durov received two letters from U.S. senators: Democratic Party senators wanted to get access to the Jan. 6 rioters’ personal data, claiming that otherwise, Telegram violates the U.S. Constitution. The team ignored the request. Later, Republican Party senators sent a conflicting letter stating that the company would have broken the law if it had shared the data. • According to Durov, there’s a lot of pressure coming from Apple and Google, and they have become the #1 source of online censorship. • Durov owns 100% of Telegram and wants to keep it independent, with no plans for an IPO. • Currently, 30 people are working at Telegram. The team doesn’t spend a budget on marketing, yet the user base keeps growing. The goal is to achieve one billion users in the next few years. • Maintaining the current level of privacy is getting harder. There may be a need for protected smartphones to ensure confidentiality in the future, and Durov says he doesn’t trust his phone and assumes he is being tracked. • He was in favor of the purchase of Twitter by Elon Musk, and Durov believes it will have a positive impact on the social networking industry. • Durov stopped dealing with Mark Zuckerberg after the latter allegedly stole his idea of in-built apps for social media. • Durov has a few hundred million dollars in his bank account and owns $BTC, but he doesn’t spend it on anything, as it would undermine his freedom. Instead, he opts to invest everything back into Telegram.

Cointelegraph

140,627 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

🚨 BREAKING: The White House has begun releasing President Trump's 20-point peace plan between Israel and Gaza PRESIDENT TRUMP would chair the transition board Major points are as follows: ➡️ HOSTAGES & PRISONERS: All hostages, both alive and deceased, to be returned within 72 hours of Israel's acceptance. In return, Israel will release 250 life-sentence prisoners and 1,700 detainees ➡️ CEASEFIRE: All military operations suspended; IDF withdrawal tied to demilitarization milestones ➡️ GAZA'S FUTURE: To become a “deradicalized, terror-free zone” under temporary Palestinian technocratic governance with international stabilization forces. ➡️ HAMAS ROLE: No role in Gaza governance; members who disarm may receive amnesty or safe passage abroad. ➡️ AID & REBUILDING: Immediate humanitarian aid, unrestricted distribution through the UN/Red Crescent, creation of a Special Economic Zone, and a Trump-led economic development plan to rebuild Gaza. FULL RELEASE BY WHITE HOUSE: 1. Gaza will be a deradicalized terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbors. 2. Gaza will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza, who have suffered more than enough. 3. If both sides agree to this proposal, the war will immediately end. Israeli forces will withdraw to the agreed upon line to prepare for a hostage release. During this time, all military operations, including aerial and artillery bombardment, will be suspended, and battle lines will remain frozen until conditions are met for the complete staged withdrawal. 4. Within 72 hours of Israel publicly accepting this agreement, all hostages, alive and deceased, will be returned. 5. Once all hostages are released, Israel will release 250 life sentence prisoners plus 1700 Gazans who were detained after October 7th 2023, including all women and children detained in that context. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are released, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Gazans. 6. Once all hostages are returned, Hamas members who commit to peaceful co-existence and to decommission their weapons will be given amnesty. Members of Hamas who wish to leave Gaza will be provided safe passage to receiving countries. 7. Upon acceptance of this agreement, full aid will be immediately sent into the Gaza Strip. At a minimum, aid quantities will be consistent with what was included in the January 19, 2025, agreement regarding humanitarian aid, including rehabilitation of infrastructure (water, electricity, sewage), rehabilitation of hospitals and bakeries, and entry of necessary equipment to remove rubble and open roads. 8. Entry of distribution and aid in the Gaza Strip will proceed without interference from the two parties through the United Nations and its agencies, and the Red Crescent, in addition to other international institutions not associated in any manner with either party. Opening the Rafah crossing in both directions will be subject to the same mechanism implemented under the January 19, 2025 agreement. 9. Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for the people in Gaza. This committee will be made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the “Board of Peace,” which will be headed and chaired by President Donald J. Trump, with other members and heads of State to be announced, including Former Prime Minister Tony Blair. This body will set the framework and handle the funding for the redevelopment of Gaza until such time as the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform program, as outlined in various proposals, including President Trump’s peace plan in 2020 and the Saudi-French proposal, and can securely and effectively take back control of Gaza. This body will call on best international standards to create modern and efficient governance that serves the people of Gaza and is conducive to attracting investment. 10. A Trump economic development plan to rebuild and energize Gaza will be created by convening a panel of experts who have helped birth some of the thriving modern miracle cities in the Middle East. Many thoughtful investment proposals and exciting development ideas have been crafted by well-meaning international groups, and will be considered to synthesize the security and governance frameworks to attract and facilitate these investments that will create jobs, opportunity, and hope for future Gaza. 11. A special economic zone will be established with preferred tariff and access rates to be negotiated with participating countries. 12. No one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return. We will encourage people to stay and offer them the opportunity to build a better Gaza. 13. Hamas and other factions agree to not have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly, indirectly, or in any form. All military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt. There will be a process of demilitarization of Gaza under the supervision of independent monitors, which will include placing weapons permanently beyond use through an agreed process of decommissioning, and supported by an internationally funded buy back and reintegration program all verified by the independent monitors. New Gaza will be fully committed to building a prosperous economy and to peaceful coexistence with their neighbors. 14. A guarantee will be provided by regional partners to ensure that Hamas, and the factions, comply with their obligations and that New Gaza poses no threat to its neighbors or its people. 15. The United States will work with Arab and international partners to develop a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF) to immediately deploy in Gaza. The ISF will train and provide support to vetted Palestinian police forces in Gaza, and will consult with Jordan and Egypt who have extensive experience in this field. This force will be the long-term internal security solution. The ISF will work with Israel and Egypt to help secure border areas, along with newly trained Palestinian police forces. It is critical to prevent munitions from entering Gaza and to facilitate the rapid and secure flow of goods to rebuild and revitalize Gaza. A deconfliction mechanism will be agreed upon by the parties. 16. Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza. As the ISF establishes control and stability, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw based on standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarization that will be agreed upon between the IDF, ISF, the guarantors, and the Unites States, with the objective of a secure Gaza that no longer poses a threat to Israel, Egypt, or its citizens. Practically, the IDF will progressively hand over the Gaza territory it occupies to the ISF according to an agreement they will make with the transitional authority until they are withdrawn completely from Gaza, save for a security perimeter presence that will remain until Gaza is properly secure from any resurgent terror threat. 17. In the event Hamas delays or rejects this proposal, the above, including the scaled-up aid operation, will proceed in the terror-free areas handed over from the IDF to the ISF. 18. An interfaith dialogue process will be established based on the values of tolerance and peaceful co-existence to try and change mindsets and narratives of Palestinians and Israelis by emphasizing the benefits that can be derived from peace. 19. While Gaza re-development advances and when the PA reform program is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people. 20. The United States will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous co-existence.

Nick Sortor

179,901 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

$SERV is the Fiverr/Shopify for AI agents. OpenServ provides a platform and marketplace to create, find, and employ AI agents. Here's why it can be a leading Agent marketplace and is undervalued compared to where it can go. ———————————————————— To put this in perspective, we will take this from the top down. Let's look at the valuation mismatch. → Shopify: $140B → Fiverr: $1.2B → $SERV: $37M AI agent platforms can completely replace these businesses. Why? → Can automate operations (i.e. store setup, inventory management, and customer support autonomously, etc.) → Agents can hyper-personalize the shopping experience → Store owners can own their data and have more control → Marketplaces are a cheaper/faster solution AI agents make things more convenient by performing tasks autonomously. They are inevitable. ———————————————————— The AI Agent market is projected to reach ~$50B by 2030. So the potential is MASSIVE. What makes me so bullish on $SERV specifically? There are 3 things: 1️⃣ The Tech They are targeting Web 2 businesses. This gives the platform the most upside potential imo, both in terms of adoption and valuation. These are some noteworthy highlights: → No-code AI Agent builder (anyone can build) → Builders can generate income using agents → ANY agent can cooperate with ANY agent through SERVs platform → Offers multi-agent collaboration, while allowing for human input/customization This sets them apart from other crypto-centric AI agent marketplaces. OpenServ allows you to create a team of agents to carry out complex tasks, all while automating the process and packaging their solution for Web 2 businesses. Simple tool, easy execution, and limitless productivity. Which business/individual wouldn't want to do MORE in LESS time at a rate MUCH LESS than solutions already available? ———————————————————— 2️⃣ The Team They have a stacked team. → Founders: Experience in businesses & startups → CTO: 20+ years of experience in ML/AI → CFO: ex-JP Morgan VP → CMO: ex-IBM AI & Blockchain Marketing Director Within the last few weeks/months, they have added a UI/UX designer, 4 more devs, and more devs + a product manager coming. You could have the best tech but the team is what determines its success. In this case, the team has the knowledge/experience to see this through. They have been building for a year and the progress made is a good sign of what's to come. ———————————————————— 3️⃣ The Tokenomics A percentage of transaction volume on the platform will be used to buy back and burn the $SERV token. This creates and maintains buy-side pressure and demand. To put that in perspective, Fiverr & Upwork had a combined transaction volume of $5B. The demand for Agents wont slow down anytime soon. Demand for AI agents will translate into demand for the token. I love deflation. It's simple, clean, and effective. ———————————————————— ➡️ Final Thoughts I've held on tight to my $SERV bag because the platform is launching in Q1. This will mark the beginning of their journey to the top. Agents are inevitable. Integration with Web 2 businesses is inevitable. And the platform launch is coming as alt szn is kicking off. The stars are aligning. At the same time, AI companies are already showing interest in the platform. Developers lead to more users, bringing monetization opportunities, which brings more developers, and so on. A powerfully designed flywheel. This is a new and exciting sector. I expect interest and liquidity to be focused on AI Agents and the infrastructure around them. Max opportunity is right here in this sector.

Chill

34,174 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

🚨12 HOUR NEWS RECAP 1.⁠ Trump said Putin called to congratulate him on Middle East peace and hinted it could lead to an end of the Ukraine war. The pair agreed to meet in Hungary, aiming to negotiate an end to the war. 2.⁠ VP Vance said Russia and Ukraine are still not close enough to get a deal: "For all of our work - and we're going to keep on working at it - the Russians and the Ukrainians are just not at the point where they can make a deal. I do think that we will eventually get there." 3.⁠ India is cutting Russian oil purchases in half following trade talks with the White House, according to a senior US official. Catch the fine print: the cuts won't show up in official data until December or January since refiners already locked in November cargoes. 4.⁠ Venezuelan officials floated a deal: Maduro would step down… in 3 years, handing power to his VP Delcy Rodriguez (who wouldn’t run again). The White House shut it down, calling Maduro’s regime illegitimate and accusing it of running a narco-state. 5.⁠ Israel says Hamas can return a “double-digit” number of deceased hostages - but isn’t. Only 9 bodies have been returned under the U.S-brokered deal, while 19 remain. Israel now considers this a “fundamental breach” of the ceasefire agreement. 6.⁠ Kai Trump launched her YouTube era with “1 on 1 with Kai” - featuring 18 holes, drone shots, hot mics, and Grandpa... aka “45 and 47.” She drops bombs off the tee, breaks down her 60° wedge strategy, and casually roasts his fairway bunker game. 7.⁠ A Polish court will decide whether to extradite Ukrainian diver Volodymyr Z. to Germany over alleged involvement in the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline explosions. Prime Minister Donald Tusk opposes the transfer, saying it’s not in Poland’s interest. 8.⁠ Ukrainian drones struck the Gvardeyskoye fuel depot in Russian-occupied Crimea, setting the facility ablaze. The depot supplied fuel to a large portion of the peninsula, disrupting one of Moscow’s key supply routes in the region. 9.⁠ Federal prosecutors charged Los Angeles developers Steven Taylor and Cody Holmes for allegedly stealing millions meant for homeless housing projects. Taylor flipped a Cheviot Hills property to a nonprofit tied to former state senator Kevin Murray for a $16 million profit. Holmes, meanwhile, used $2.2 million in public housing funds to pay luxury credit card bills. 10.⁠ NYC mayor hopeful Mamdani blasted Trump for threatening to deploy the National Guard to New York: “I agree with Police Commissioner Tish that we do not need the National Guard here in New York City. What New Yorkers need is a mayor who can stand up to Donald Trump and actually deliver on safety."

Mario Nawfal

72,536 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

China just pulled off the biggest AI heist in history on Anthropic. In a letter sent to the Senate Banking Committee, Anthropic accused operators tied to Alibaba's Qwen AI lab of running the largest model extraction attack the company has ever detected. The numbers are truly insane: Alibaba allegedly used roughly 25,000 fraudulent Claude accounts to generate 28.8 million queries over a 44 day operation that ran from April 22 to June 5, all aimed directly at Claude's two most commercially valuable skills - advanced software engineering and agentic reasoning (the ability to plan and execute multi step tasks on its own). For context, this SINGLE campaign was larger than every previous Chinese campaign against Claude COMBINED. The technique is called distillation. You point a cheaper model at a stronger one, pump millions of carefully crafted prompts through it, harvest the answers, and then train your own model on the responses. The attacker never sees the weights, never touches the training data, and never has to actually break in anywhere. The attacker just has to be a paying customer. This is the new playbook for corporate espionage in AI. Competitors do not have to hack the company they want to copy. They sign up for the API like everyone else, route tens of millions of queries through proxies and stolen identities, and walk away with a working clone of the most valuable capabilities. And here is where it gets darker... In April, the White House published a formal memo through OSTP director Michael Kratsios identifying distillation as a national security threat and committing to share intelligence with American AI labs about foreign campaigns. Anthropic says the Alibaba campaign started AFTER that memo was published. In open defiance of the administration's warning. Then two days after Anthropic sent its private warning to the Senate, the Commerce Department's response landed: They did NOT sanction Alibaba. They restricted Anthropic's most advanced models from American customers worldwide, citing national security concerns. So the actual timeline reads like this: Alibaba allegedly extracts billions of dollars of American AI capability over six weeks. Anthropic warns Washington. Washington responds by locking American companies out of the very models Alibaba allegedly already copied. Alibaba's American depositary receipts dropped more than 3% on the news and fell below $100. The company is also suing the Pentagon to be removed from the Chinese military blacklist it was added to on June 8. Anthropic is now fighting on two fronts at the same time. The first front is trying to convince Washington to protect its models from being stolen abroad. The second is trying to convince Washington to let Americans actually use those models at home. If your competitive moat is model capability, your moat is a leaky API key. Every API you consume is a potential extraction surface, and every API you sell is a potential extraction target. The intellectual property border simply does not exist when the product ships as software through a public endpoint. The defensible asset is no longer the model. It is the distribution, the proprietary data pipeline, and the customer relationships that make a competitor's copy useless even when they hold it in their hands. Alibaba may already have 28.8 million pages of Claude's reasoning sitting in a training corpus right now. While American companies just got locked out of the original. Who do you think wins from that?

Ricardo

22,318 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Can United States manufacture robots? Matic Robots says "yes." It makes the best floor cleaning robot, that has won many perfect scores from Wired to many others. We love ours. But my trip there to get a tour from AI pioneer Navneet Dalal Navneet Dalal provided some real insights into how hard it is for a hardware company to make hardware in the United States. And how deeply AI is changing consumer electronics products that are going to be in many more homes soon. In this first part (Part II coming tomorrow) we get a look at how long it took for this company to go through prototypes to a shipping product. In the second part, you'll see the scaling hell that it takes to even ship a few thousand robots and the kinds of problems that scaling up a factory brings. Matic is one of my favorite small Silicon Valley companies. It has found what we call "product market fit." I just came back from CES where I saw many of its competitors, and the Matic wins because of not just the product thinking of Mehul and Navneet Dalal but because of their AI leadership. In a way their robot took many lessons from Tesla, from where to put the batteries to its bet on computer vision, which Navneet has been a pioneer in for years, working quietly behind the scenes. It is about to move into a new location that will allow it to grow to meet the demand that now is showing up (the boxes in its lobby show that it's outgrowing its current facilities). In terms of AI, it has aspirations of making a humanoid too, but it is taking a far more measured approach to getting there. By starting on the floor it can not just build world models based on real world data (customers are given a choice whether to allow its data to be used that way. Most customers choose to keep their data on the robot only, for privacy reasons, but if you opt in you can help them improve their models). They are using that data to understand homes. Navneet told me they hit very unusual situations in people's homes already that they couldn't really predict in simulators, like full-wall mirrors that confuse computer vision systems, or pools and water features in people's homes. Having real customers brings a ton of customer feedback about how to further improve the robot, and, as Navneet demonstrates in the second video, forces them to build a manufacturing muscle memory. Getting teams to work together, figuring out how to solve supply chain problems, from Trump's tarriffs, to a new one that showed up over the past couple of weeks. A supplier for its bags (one of the cheaper parts that goes into the robot) changed the glue it used, which caused robots to fail quality tests and the manufacturing line to stop. Reminds me a lot of the hell Elon Musk faced in its Fremont factory when Tesla was first starting to manufacture its Model 3, which almost bankrupted the company. Off the record Mehul and Navneet 🇮🇳 showed me some of the prototypes and plans for its next products that will show up over the next few years. Certainly not as sexy as Tesla, Figure, 1x_tech, and all the Chinese manufacturers are showing off already, but far better thought out for the typical Western home and AI plays a huge role in its future. It is the product that speaks for itself. It's amazing, and is about to get better this year due to AI. It's the first real vision-only robot to be in my home and I bet it won't be the last from this company. Real honor that they invited me over with my Insta360 camera (another company launched in my home, just like Matic was last year). In Part II we go into the factory.

Robert Scoble

69,229 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

The hype train just hit reality. For the first time ever, you can buy shares in a walking, working humanoid robot company. On June 24, 2026, Agility Robotics announced a definitive merger agreement with special purpose acquisition company $CCXI (Churchill Capital Corp XI). The deal will take the company public on the Nasdaq under the ticker $AGLT. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2026, subject to SEC and shareholder approvals. This marks the historic first debut of a pure-play humanoid robotics company on the U.S. stock market. Stripped of the usual AI marketing noise, here is a cold, financial and technological breakdown of the industry's first true public market test: 1. Deal Structure & Redemption Risks > Pre-money Equity Value: $2.5 billion. > Capital Infusion: Total gross proceeds of over $620 million ($420 million from $CCXI’s trust account + $200 million via a private placement (PIPE) priced at $10.00 per share). > Key Players: The PIPE round is anchored by manufacturing titan #Foxconn. Existing strategic backers, including #Amazon, #SoftBank (Vision Fund 2), and #GXO Logistics, are rolling 100% of their equity into the combined company and are bound by a 180-day lock-up agreement. > Financial Safeguard: The deal includes a minimum cash condition of $200 million. This structural floor protects the company against high redemption rates from SPAC shareholders = a historical pain point for late-stage tech mergers. At the current burn rate, this capital injection secures a stable operational runway of 24 to 30 months. 2. Unit Economics & Technical Guardrails While competitors rely heavily on edited video demonstrations, Agility is anchoring its valuation on verified operational metrics from its signature bipedal robot, Digit: > Commercial Traction: Over 65,000 hours of real-world commercial work logged across customer deployments (including facilities owned by $AMZN Amazon, $GXO GXO Logistics, $TM Toyota, and $SHA0.DE Schaeffler). > Narrow Specialization: It is crucial to temper expectations - the upcoming Digit v5 is not a general-purpose artificial agent. It is a highly specialized logistics asset built for repetitive tote-flipping and tote-handling. It operates within predefined industrial workflows alongside human workers without safety cages. > RaaS (Robotics-as-a-Service) Model: Current commercial leasing rates for these bipedal units hover around $30 per hour. > The Cost-to-Scale Target: The current total operating cost (including maintenance, high-wear harmonic drive components, and battery cell depreciation) sits at roughly $10–$12 per hour. Proceeds from the IPO will fund the mass scaling of their "Robofab" facility in Oregon, aiming to drive this operational cost down to a target of $2–$3 per hour. > Sales Pipeline: The company claims a backlog of multi-year commercial contracts and commitments valued at over $300 million, primarily tied to the deployment of the Digit v5 platform. 3. The Wall Street Outlook CEO Peggy Johnson is leveraging the accelerated timeline of a SPAC merger to secure a capital and manufacturing lead over well-funded, private, or conglomerate-backed competition like #Tesla (Optimus) and #FigureAI. However, public markets are notoriously unforgiving. The company is in its pre-earnings infancy and operates with a steep net loss. Institutional investors will disregard traditional P/E ratios; instead, the stock will be priced on a forward-looking P/S (Price-to-Sales) multiple tied to hardware delivery milestones and net burn rate. Given the inherent volatility of the SPAC structure, significant stock fluctuations are expected post-merger. Wall Street has officially established its first direct barometer for the commercial viability of Physical AI. What’s your take on the $AGLT debut? Is entering the public markets through a SPAC the right fuel to outrun the competition, or is it too early for retail investors to handle this level of hardware volatility? 🎁Bonus for those who made it to the end: $AGLT 3D LiDAR sensors supplied by $OUST. Drop your thoughts below and let's discuss.

Finn Stockinger

14,639 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Ray Dalio just exposed the AI companies for manufacturing their own crash. This is the guy who built the world's largest hedge fund and made money in 2008 while the S&P 500 dropped 40%. And he just went on Diary of a CEO and confirmed we are showing "the classic signs" of a bubble: When Jeremy Grantham's warning that this is the biggest investment bubble in American history came up, Dalio's entire answer was "He's right." Two of the most famous investors alive calling the top within a month of each other. But Dalio also explained the machine that does the popping. Everybody thinks bubbles pop when the technology disappoints. Dalio says they pop when the supply of stock outruns the money available to buy it. "There's almost nothing that's easier to produce than stock." A founder raises $50 million, gets valued at a billion, and becomes a billionaire on paper. But nobody actually paid a billion, nobody can spend the paper, and when everyone tries to turn paper into cash at the same time, the price collapses to whatever real money is left in the room. Now look at what the AI companies have been doing while telling you demand is infinite: Alphabet sold $84.75 billion of new stock in June. That is the largest equity raise by any listed company in HISTORY, and $40 billion of it is a program that drips shares into the open market whenever Alphabet chooses, starting this quarter. OpenAI and Anthropic both confidentially filed for IPOs last quarter. Total US equity issuance hit $251 billion in the first half of 2026. That is a record, beating the 2021 mania. Every one of those sales is the smartest money on Earth converting paper into your cash. And they know exactly what they are doing... An AI founder admitted on this same episode, through a story Bartlett told, that he believes we are in a bubble, so he raised hundreds of millions NOW to buy his competitors cheap after the crash. Dalio's response was that the raise itself increases the flood of stock. The man is producing the crash he plans to go shopping in, and so is every founder running the same play. Then Dalio named the pin: Bubbles get pricked when interest rates rise, because people with debt suddenly have to sell assets to raise cash. And he said that BEFORE Wednesday... On Wednesday the Fed held rates and three Fed presidents dissented, demanding an immediate HIKE. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan all broke the same direction, the first time that has happened since September 2016. Inflation has been above target for five straight years and oil is up more than 20% this month. So who is on the other side of the trade? Dalio said the classic bubble signal is unsophisticated money piling in with leverage, and his word for it was "crapshooting." Leveraged ETF assets just passed $192 billion. Korean single stock leveraged products on Samsung and SK Hynix went from around $3 billion to nearly $50 billion in one month. Those funds are forced to buy as prices rise and forced to dump as prices fall. This week SK Hynix grew profit six fold, missed estimates anyway, and dropped 19% in a single day. Chip stocks worldwide lost over $1 trillion. Put the pieces together: A record wave of new stock from the companies at the center of the boom. A Fed drifting toward the exact trigger Dalio named. And leveraged retail money as the last buyer standing under all of it. The companies printing the shares can see every piece of it. The only open question is whether the people buying them can.

Ricardo

16,228 görüntüleme • 24 gün önce

Big Tech just forced the US government into bailing ITSELF out. This morning the US Treasury announced it will at least double the size of its own bond buybacks, because for two months almost nobody else wanted them. The 30-year Treasury bond hit its highest yield since 2007 last Thursday, then did it again yesterday. The long end has been in a buyers' strike since late June, meaning the pension funds and insurers who normally absorb 20 and 30 year government paper stopped showing up. This morning it auctioned $16 billion of 20-year debt at the second-worst yield since that bond was reintroduced in 2020. So the Treasury tore up a schedule it had published two weeks earlier. It doubled the maximum size of each long-bond buyback from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and went from two operations a quarter to four. The 30-year yield fell 9 basis points within minutes. Stocks rallied. By early afternoon the 10-year had given almost all of it back. BUT the thing is, this operation changes almost nothing, because the underlying problem is untouched: The tidal wave of hyperscaler debt sitting on top of very large government deficits. Hyperscaler means Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle and Nvidia. The Wall Street Journal went through the footnotes of 9 tech companies' filings on Sunday and found roughly $3 TRILLION in AI commitments sitting outside their balance sheets. That is 5x the $600 billion of capital spending those same companies reported over the past year. Alphabet alone discloses $811 billion in purchase and contractual obligations. Three months earlier it was $332 billion. All of it has to be funded somewhere. And this is where it collides with the government: Data centers, chip supply agreements and 20-year power contracts are long-duration assets, and long-duration assets get financed with long-duration debt. That is the exact product the US Treasury sells. There is a finite pool of investors willing to lend money for 30 years at a fixed rate. That pool does not get bigger because Meta needs another campus in Louisiana. So when the largest companies in history issue hundreds of billions of long-dated debt at the same moment the Treasury needs to roll a national debt approaching $40 trillion, both sides are bidding for the SAME buyers. One of those bidders can offer whatever yield it takes and book it as growth. The other one is the US government, and this morning it folded. Treasury does not create money for these buybacks. It funds them by issuing shorter-dated debt instead, so the obligation does not disappear. It gets pulled closer to the present, to be refinanced at whatever rate exists in a year or two. The government is buying back the debt nobody wants by selling more of the debt people still take. The 30-year Treasury yield is the number that prices your mortgage. The average 30-year fixed sits at 6.67% today. But there IS a real argument on the other side: Buybacks are routine, and $4 billion is nothing against a $30 trillion market. Plenty of serious people will call today housekeeping. But housekeeping shouldn’t require tearing up your own published schedule two weeks after you release it. The AI buildout is now financed at a scale that competes with sovereign borrowing, and the sovereign is losing bidders. Nobody voted on that, and people will pay for it in their mortgage rate long before anyone calls it a crisis. What do you think?

Ricardo

58,154 görüntüleme • 3 gün önce

Mr. Witkoff, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff Steve Witkoff Today you will have a meeting with representatives of Ukraine dedicated to the search for peace. You have lost a son and know what loss means. In Ukraine, more than 400,000 families have already lost their children, yet not a single friend or relative of Zelensky is among them. Not one Ukrainian official has given up a child, a husband, a brother, or a father to this war. Not a single actor from Zelensky’s own “Kvartal 95” troupe is at the front. It is ordinary Ukrainians who die. Yermak and Umerov, who will come to persuade you and President Trump to continue supporting the war, will also never know what loss feels like. Yermak has never had a wife or children, and Umerov’s family lives entirely in the United States. For these people, including Zelensky, the war is nothing but an extremely profitable business that has nothing to do with Ukraine’s national interests - otherwise peace would have been concluded back in the spring of 2022. What is more, these people are not even Ukrainians by their own nationality - they are Jews, Tatars, sometimes Russians. But those who demand that Ukrainians die are, for the most part, not Ukrainians themselves. That is why it is so easy for them. This may not be as obvious to Americans, but for Ukraine, which is trying to build a national state, it is a tragedy. Because as a result of the war, the number of Ukrainians has already decreased by 10 million people - 30% of the country’s population. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army is in a dreadful state. Brigades are staffed at 30% strength (link to news in the written version). Every second soldier is on the run and listed as a deserter. Yet through manipulation of statistics (deserters remain officially listed in their units) and press censorship, Zelensky continues to present catastrophe as victory. At the same time, the government is introducing criminal liability for attempting to escape from the largest concentration camp in Europe, which Ukraine has become. Soldiers from shattered brigades are ordered to attack before Zelensky’s and Yermak’s trips to the U.S., and refusal is punished with 10 years in prison. Many prefer prison to certain death. Such is the reality. The army is scattering. Hiding behind fine slogans in which they themselves do not believe, Zelensky, Yermak, and Umerov will continue to invent new excuses for why the war cannot be ended. By demanding security guarantees, what they really demand are guarantees of their own continued power, of further militarization of Ukraine, and of preparing for a second act of war after a short pause. Having received these guarantees, Zelensky simply wants to “wait out” Trump so that, after a change of power in the United States (which they will try to facilitate), they can once again launch the highly profitable machine of death. The topic of security guarantees for Ukraine has been turned into an attempt to provide guarantees for remilitarization and cementing revanchism. A number of European countries, led by Brussels, insist that Ukraine as a result of these guarantees should not be pacified, but on the contrary turned into a “steel porcupine,” under the pretext of a possible repeat of Russian aggression. Such an approach will only freeze the current situation and create even greater geopolitical uncertainty, which is incompatible with the requirements for ensuring security on the part of Russia. Sooner rather than later, this will lead to a repetition and escalation of the war. Another clear concern is the intention to keep an oversized army “under arms,” the financing of which is planned to be imposed on the state infrastructure and the revenues from the exploitation of Ukraine’s natural resources. On the one hand, this approach will only increase tensions and the risk of renewed war immediately after an arms race. On the other — it will minimize the chances of mobilizing Ukraine’s human and resource potential for the restoration of peaceful life. Therefore, security guarantees must be provided to Ukraine only after all the conditions of the peace agreement have been achieved. These guarantees must not become a “preservative” for war. Ukrainians are not only tired of war — they no longer understand for which “outposts of Europe” and “future European values” they and their children and grandchildren must die today. We want the war to leave Ukraine forever — both physically and mentally. We want to be sure that it will not return. For this, Ukrainian politicians are obliged to conduct a responsible and realistic foreign policy, equidistant from all centers of decision-making. This policy must be based not on militarism, but on the fundamental national interest — to rebuild Ukraine and ensure peace. Donald J. Trump Donald Trump Jr. Secretary Marco Rubio Marco Rubio Elon Musk JD Vance Vice President JD Vance Stephen Miller Maria Bartiromo #Ukraine #Peace #Trump

Oleksandr Dubinskyi

15,995 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

elon musk just sat down with his SpaceX team and explained exactly how they're going to turn humanity into a kardashev type 2 civilization it's one of the most insane things i've ever watched: 1. humanity currently uses less than one trillionth of the sun's energy output. a trillion is a million times a million. on the kardashev scale, the one physicists use to measure how advanced a civilization actually is, we are not even registering. we are effectively non-existent. 2. starship is the first rocket in history designed to be fully reusable. every other mode of transport, cars, planes, ships, bicycles, you take reusability for granted. rockets have always been thrown away after one use. if you had to throw away the plane after every flight, almost nobody would be flying. 3. spacex currently launches 85 to 90% of all mass to orbit on earth. the rest of the world, including most of the us, accounts for maybe 5 to 7%. that's before starship even gets going. 4. the plan is to go from 2,500 tons to orbit per year to a million tons per year. in roughly 3 years. that's not a projection. that's the internal target. 5. data centers are moving to space. by end of next year spacex is targeting 1 gigawatt of ai compute in orbit. then 10x every year after that. 10 gigawatts in 2.5 years. 100 gigawatts in 3.5 years. a terawatt eventually, which is twice the entire electricity consumption of the united states. 6. the ai satellite is actually simpler to build than a starlink satellite. it's mostly solar panels, a radiator, and a rack of gpus. the hard part was already solved building starlink. they're just making it bigger. 7. latency from orbit is about 3 milliseconds. light travels 300 km per millisecond. some people assume orbital compute means high latency. it doesn't. it's 3 milliseconds away. 8. the terafab will be 100 million square feet. ten times the size of the tesla gigafactory texas. the entire global chip industry is on track to hit maybe 100 gigawatts of ai compute per year. a terawatt requires a completely different order of manufacturing. that's why they're building it themselves. 9. to go beyond a terawatt you have to go to the moon. no atmosphere. one-sixth earth's gravity. you manufacture solar panels and radiators directly from moon materials. then you launch ai satellites into deep space using an electromagnetic rail gun. no rocket needed. musk calls this the mass driver. this is the next step on the actual roadmap. 10. if enough mass is going to the moon to run a rail gun operation at that scale, it also means regular people can go. musk's exact words: "i think everyone should go to the moon at least once." 11. the ai satellite has about a terabit of laser link connectivity. it connects to the starlink constellation which then sends data to the ground using frequencies that penetrate clouds and even roofs. the connection never drops regardless of weather. 12. the reference design for the first ai satellites is built around nvidia rubin and GB300 chips. but the architecture is open. google TPUs, amazon trainium, any chip can go up. spacex is building the infrastructure, not locking in the compute. 13. spacex is the only operator on earth with experience running a constellation at the scale of 10,000 satellites. nobody else is even close. that operational knowledge is a moat that cannot be replicated quickly.

Jaynit

78,558 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🔊UNBELIEVERS: ONE MORE TIME—DON'T CLOSE YOUR EARS!! The tribulation is coming, and you are completely unprepared for what’s around the corner! It will be the worst time in all of history, and you have no idea what’s coming. God is about to unleash His judgment on this world, and NO ONE will stop Him. The 7-year tribulation will soon begin, but before that, He will come to take His Church OUT of this world. IT'S TIME TO TURN TO JESUS!! 🔥Times are about to change once the Church is removed! The world as we know it will come to an end and it will face the 7-year tribulation. 📜It's all written in the book of Revelation which is a letter written by Jesus to His Church, where He tells us HOW He will judge and unveil His divine nature to this world after being hidden for 6,000 years. He opens the scroll and breaks the seals, revealing what is about to happen. ⚠️SNEAK PEEK OF WHAT'S COMING UP! 👉🏼First, Jesus will descend from heaven to resurrect and rapture His Church. All believers who have died in Him will be raised from the dead, and then, those of us who are still alive will be taken to heaven to be the Lord. The world will try to spin it as if it's related to aliens or some other fabricated story—do NOT be deceived! Remember, it's written: 📖 "For the Lord Himself will descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of an archangel, and with the trumpet of God. And the dead in Christ will rise first. Then we who are alive and remain shall be caught up together with them in the clouds to meet the Lord in the air. And thus we shall always be with the Lord." 1 Thess 4:15-17 🖊️After the Church is taken away, the Antichrist will emerge and will sign a 7-year peace agreement with Israel allowing them to rebuild the third temple. This agreement will mark the beginning of the 7-year tribulation. It will be a time of great trouble, the worst the world has ever seen! 👉🏼During this time, according to the Book of Revelation, God will unleash 21 divine judgments upon the Earth, leading to the death of over half the world's population. These judgments will include turning both the seas and fresh drinking water into blood and causing the sun and moon to lose their light. 📜THIS IS HOW IT WILL UNFOLD: 👉🏼 Seven Seals: 1/4 of the world’s population dies. (Revelation 6) 1. The White Horse (Antichrist-false peace). 2. The Red Horse (War). 3. The Black Horse (Drought/Famine/Economic disaster). 4. The Pale Horse (Plague/Disease). 5. Martyrdom of those who refuse to worship the beast (The Tribulation saints massacre). 6. A massive earthquake reshapes the earth. 7. Silence in Heaven. 👉🏼 Seven Trumpets: 1/3 of the world’s population dies. (Revelation 8-11) 1. Hail and fire mixed with blood. 2. A great mountain cast into the sea. 3. Wormwood — a meteor that poisons a third of the drinking water. 4. A third of the sun, moon, and stars darkened (great cold and darkness) 5. First Woe (Those who accept the mark suffer under a plague of demonic locusts). 6. Second Woe (one-third of mankind killed by a demon army). 7. Third Woe (Lightning, Voices, Thunder, an Earthquake, and Great hail.) 👉🏼 Seven Vials/Bowls (Revelation 16) 1. Grievous Sores on those who take the mark of the beast. 2. The rest of the seas turn to blood. 3. Rivers and fountains turned to blood. 4. Great heat. 5. Great darkness over the earth. 6. The Euphrates River dries up. 7. A Massive earthquake and vast earth changes. 🕞During the midpoint of the tribulation, 3.5 years after the Antichrist signs the deal with Israel, he will sit in the temple, declaring himself as God and demanding to be worshipped. Israel will realize they've been deceived and seek refuge. If you're still here during this time, DO NOT ACCEPT THE MARK OF THE BEAST, it will be your doom, and you will go straight to hell! 👉🏼 The Battle of Armageddon (Revelation 19) At the conclusion of the seven years, the Beast's armies, alongside the kings from the east, assemble in the Megiddo Valley (Israel) with the intent to annihilate the remaining Jewish population. At this moment Christ will return in power and glory, accompanied by the Armies of Heaven. Together, they defeat the evil armies, securing the final victory! 👉🏼 The Judgment of the Nations (Matthew 25) Christ judges the remaining nations. This will be the end of the 6,000 years and a new era will begin for this world. 👉🏼THE MILLENIAL KINGDOM: Christ will reign on the throne of David in Israel, ruling over the earth for a thousand years. During this time, the world will be freed from the curse of sin, and it will become a peaceful place, as it was originally intended to be from the beginning! 🔥As far as our understanding goes, without salvation, all those who rejected Him will be sent to Hades (Luke 16:22–23) upon death, where they will experience an excruciating time waiting for the end of the 7-year tribulation and the 1,000-year millennial period when Jesus will rule on Earth. 💣After this, Satan who was bound will be released, and he will revolt against God again, but his rebellion will be finally defeated. At that point, the Bible tells us that he will be thrown into the lake of fire (Revelation 19: 19-20; 20:7-10). Then everyone who has died, whether they were important or not who rejected Christ and His cross, will face God at the "Great White Throne" (Revelation 20:11–15). 👉🏼Next, "the books" described in Revelation 20: 12 will be opened. These books hold records of everyone's deeds, whether good or evil. It's crucial to understand that God knows everything that has ever been said, done or even thought. Using this information, God will fairly judge each person based on their actions. 📕Another book will be opened at this moment, known as the "Book of Life" (Revelation 20: 12). This specific book plays a crucial role in deciding whether a person will receive eternal life with God or endure eternal punishment in the lake of fire. 🔥On this horrific day, all those who are not morally perfect and have rejected the free gift of salvation in Christ, His cross, will be thrown into hell, known as the lake of fire. Their fate will be sealed, and there will be NO HOPE of ever getting out! (Revelation 20:13) 👉🏼I don't share any of these terrible things with you to scare you, but to awaken you to the reality you face. The most important decision of your entire life is where you put your trust. Jesus is the way, the truth, and the life! He died so you can spend eternity at His side! 👉🏼God says: 📖" ‘As I live,’ says the Lord God, ‘I have no pleasure in the death of the wicked, but that the wicked turn from his way and live. Turn, turn from your evil ways! For why should you die, O house of Israel?" Ezekiel 33:11 ✝️Ready or not, the world as we know it is coming to an end, and at the end of that road, we will ALL face HIS cross. At that point, our future will depend on ONE decision we make here on Earth — choosing Jesus! Jesus Christ is Lord! 🔚At the end of that road, it will not matter what your opinion of Jesus is anymore. The Bible states that "every knee will bow and every tongue will confess that Jesus Christ is Lord." 🔊 At the cross is where it all ends for every person who has ever lived. The most important decision that you could ever make in your life is to believe in Jesus, this is where our life truly begins! 🔊TURN to HIM BEFORE YOUR FATE IS SEALED! DON'T REFUSE HIS INVITATION!! Jesus is coming for His Church to rescue us from those horrific 7 years of tribulation that the world must endure. We are at the end of the road! 👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼 ⚠️Believe Jesus is the Son of God, who shed His blood for you, and died on the cross for our sins, He was buried and resurrected during the third day, according to the Scriptures, so we can have eternal life with Him. The moment you believe in Him and that He died for your sins - you're saved, justified, sealed until the day of redemption, and rapture ready! The Holy Spirit will come to live inside of you - He will help you, guide you, change you, and be with you FOREVER! 📖"For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life." For God did not send His Son into the world to condemn the world, but that the world through Him might be saved. He who believes in Him is not condemned; but he who does not believe is condemned already, because he has not believed in the name of the only begotten Son of God." (John 3:16-18) ︵‿︵‿︵‿︵︵‿︵‿︵‿︵︵‿︵‿︵‿ Maranatha!🤍🤍🤍

Maranatha777

15,233 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

COMMONS HOUSING SELECT COMMITTEE: STATEMENT FROM FREE LEASEHOLDERS 3/3/26 Today, we told Parliament the truth. About the cynical games Conservative and Labour governments have been playing with your homes, money and lives. It was awkward. We had to motor through to cover as many points as humanely possible in a short time. Sorry if we didn’t cover yours. We are the insurgents against a very closed and broken political system. We will go away when they finally free the people from the property servitude of leasehold. Until then, we will keep challenging the official line and holding power to account, however uncomfortable that may be. Parliament has been talking about abolishing leasehold, a legacy of serfdom, since the 1880s, before working men and women had the right to vote. In 2026, we keep hearing it’s “complicated” and our politicians need more time because they might get sued by the wealthy landowners. What happened to the will of the people? Isn’t Parliament sovereign? Wasn’t that what all the Brexit lark was about? And doesn’t this Labour government have the second biggest parliamentary majority in its 126-year history as the so-called working people’s party? Keir Starmer can do a TikTok stunt on ground rents. But he can’t run away from the truth. His government are peddling a draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill that has been purged of policies that you voted for in the The Labour Party manifesto. Policies promised again in the July 2024 King’s Speech: the remaining Law Commission enfranchisement and Right to Manage recommendations. So you can finally “take back control”. The Starmer administration appears to be captured by the deep-pocketed freeholder lobby and property cartels. And the Prime Minister is in thrall to the hand-wringing lawyers who bleat on about the risk of judicial review and ECHR lawfare, as if the rights of extortionists, many offshore, and lofty international law matter more than the British people being looted in their homes and what election manifestos have promised time and time again. This government claims that they are ending the feudal leasehold system. Instead, they keep it on life support by protecting money-for-nothing ground rents until 2068. We’ll have flying cars before feudalism is banished from our homes! And buried away in the small print, the Labour government concedes our point: “leasehold as a tenure will not disappear overnight and it will be a feature of the housing market for many years to come.” The government is also siding with the leasehold grifters by failing to restrict development value in the draft legislation, which means many flat leaseholders will never be able to afford to buy their freehold, something that must happen before conversion to commonhold. Remember, the freeholders’ main lobby group, the Residential Freehold Association, admits that the typical freeholder owns just 2.5% capital value in a block of flats. These wealth-destroying corporates own a sliver of our homes and have the cheek to talk about their human rights. We are not Mugabeists. We will, of course, pay a fair rate to compensate the freeholder to leave our homes for good. But demanding more of our money so they can thwart our right to buy them out, on the basis that they could theoretically build a skyscraper in the garden, is taking the mick and must end, as the government first promised in 2021. Don’t take our word on the scam of freeholders invoking development value to block leaseholders’ bid for self-rule. Barrister Nicola Muir, of Tanfield Chambers, has written that “it is amazing what developments landlords believe are possible and the profits they claim they will generate”, citing a telling example from practice: “The landlord initially claimed £34 million for the alleged potential to build a skyscraper in the front garden of the block. Such claims can obviously be a deterrent to leaseholders, who probably have no intention of developing.” And we were the ONLY campaign group that urged the Housing, Communities & Local Government Committee to ensure that this government sets enfranchisement rates high in the Leasehold and Freehold Reform Act 2024, to the benefit of leaseholders. There is a major risk that, due to the influence peddling of ground rent grifters and their lobbyists in Westminster and Whitehall, the government will fail to implement these long-awaited reforms already on the statute books. Matthew Pennycook MP promised in November 2024 to put enfranchisement rates out to public consultation last summer, but it never happened. And if the government is forced to begin the enfranchisement changes in the 2024 Act, it will likely set the deferment and capitalisation rates artificially low, stuffing freeholders’ mouths with gold when desperate leaseholders try to extend their leases or buy out the freehold. These deferment and capitalisation rates are already derived from freeholder-friendly case law, specifically the 2006 Upper Tribunal decision known as Sportelli, with the deferment rate set at 4.75% for houses and 5.0% for flats, and a capitalisation rate of 6.0%. While the 2024 Act is vague on what these rates should be, we know that investors routinely buy freeholds at auction or directly from developers at higher rates than those implied by Sportelli, meaning they pay significantly less than leaseholders are already required to pay under statutory schemes with the low Sportelli rates. For example, an analysis of Allsop Ground Rent Auctions found that investors have been paying an average 9% capitalisation rate for the ground rent in freehold titles – well above Sportelli’s 6%. This situation is clearly unfair, and there is significant industry lobbying to keep the deferment and capitalisation rates low, i.e. below the going market rates, so that freeholders are excessively compensated by leaseholders. Once the rates are set in the 2024 Act, they remain fixed for ten years, creating jeopardy that they will be set to the disadvantage of leaseholders, who are less organised and resourced than industry interests to influence policy. If the rates are set substantially below Sportelli rates, the savings from other provisions of the 2024 Act – such as the removal of marriage value, the 0.1% restriction on ground rents, and the end of the requirement to pay the freeholder’s reasonable legal and valuation costs – would be more than cancelled out, leaving leaseholders paying more than they do today under the current rules. Minister Pennycook highlighted this risk while in opposition during the passage of the 2024 Act, stating that Labour “remain[s] convinced that this government, or a future one, could be lobbied by vested interests to set a deferment rate that will be punitive to leaseholders.” He proposed an amendment on the deferment rate to guide the Secretary of State, requiring that “in setting the deferment rate, the Secretary of State must have regard to the desirability of encouraging leaseholders to extend their lease at the lowest possible cost”, although the amendment was not passed. This policy ought to be in the draft Bill, yet it remains absent. We are urging that the 2024 Act be amended to require that the enfranchisement rates must not fall below an absolute floor of the existing Sportelli rates (with the deferment rate of 4.75% for houses and 5.0% for flats, and a capitalisation rate of 6.0%). But leaseholders should really benefit from market rates, i.e. those which developers and investors already enjoy being significantly above Sportelli, to ensure that they do not pay excessive compensation to freeholders, as occurs under the current system, to buy their freehold or extend a lease. And this isn’t just about what goes into the algorithm for the online enfranchisement calculator under the 2024 Act, or about ending the development value scam, a reform dropped from the legislation after behind-the-scenes lobbying. We will not accept a failure to bring forward a Universal Right to Manage, as part of a glidepath to commonhold. Watch what our founder said about a well-connected landlord and tenant barrister who bragged to the property tribunal last year that he had worked on the Law Commission’s Right to Manage reforms, all while representing an offshore billionaire freeholder trying to block leaseholders’ quest for Right to Manage. It should be easy. But the leaseholders at this development had to spend £150,000 just to defend their no-fault right against this legal onslaught at the First-tier Tribunal. They won, but the freeholder is now appealing… Beyond Right to Manage reform, we need a Right to Participate in collective enfranchisement so that all flat leaseholders can buy a share of the freehold even if they miss out the first time when one group of neighbours has enough support to enfranchise the block. It is unfair for leaseholders to be locked out of decisions over the charges they pay and the services affecting their home when they are ready to buy their share of the freehold. Sorting this inequity was the will of Parliament with Right to Enfranchise provisions in the 2002 Act. It’s also what the Law Commission originally recommended before seemingly being pressured by vested interests to drop the policy from their final recommendations in 2020. Also, why on earth should leaseholders have to contort themselves to get 50% support of all unit-owners in a block? Satisfying the onerous 50% participation threshold is near impossible in bigger buildings and those with high levels of buy-to-let, yet scummy investors face no qualifying criteria when hoovering up the freeholds of our homes from developers or auctioneers behind our backs. Don’t patronise us with Lord Best’s scheme for managing agents. We want liberation, not regulation. There’s a reason both the freeholder and managing agent lobbies are gagging for the cosy Lord Best policy, which wasn’t promised in either the Labour manifesto or the King’s Speech. It will jack up leaseholders’ already sky-high service charges, repeat the cruel joke of the Building Safety Regulator, and keep freeholders and their managing agent cronies firmly in the ecosystem. At the same time, a statutory regulator of managing agents will no doubt restrict competition by keeping out small ethical new entrants. It will also allow the government to claim job done while failing to end leasehold. Even without leasehold abolition, leaseholders will still be denied rightful control of their service charges and the power to easily sack their managing agent - the real regulation needed to rein in rip-off service providers and put them out of business, not some powerless or captured regulator in Whitehall. Labour should be for the grafters. If the government wants to win back public support after the Gordon and Denton by-election drubbing, salvaging this draft legislation and swiftly commencing the 2024 Act must be its priority. Show that politics can be a force for good. Stand up to the ground rent grifters and offshore property mafia. Free leaseholders. 5.3 million households in England and Wales are watching.

Free Leaseholders

21,080 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Sam Altman just told the world that OpenAI has no competitive moat and never will. And the smarter AI gets, the worse it becomes. In a recent interview with Stripe co-founder Patrick Collison, Sam laid out a vision for OpenAI that's genuinely scary at current valuations: He said he wants OpenAI to be a "forever low margin" business. He compared it to a utility company. Said he'd be happy as long as the business is "huge and growing fast" even if margins stay thin forever. Then he admitted something even worse for the bull case: He said AI switching costs are COLLAPSING. Bragged about how easy it was for users to leave a competitor's coding product and switch to Codex. Said this is actually a consequence of AI getting smarter because it gets easier to just tell an agent to migrate everything for you. Think about that... The moat is shrinking. The margins will stay low. And the smarter the models get, the EASIER it becomes for customers to leave. That is the CEO of one of the most valuable private companies on Earth telling you there is literally NO lock-in. Meanwhile he also casually mentioned that OpenAI is building "clearly the most expensive infrastructure project the world has ever undertaken." Bigger than anything in human history. Trillion-dollar scale data centers and energy deals stretching 20 years into the future. And when Patrick asked him what OpenAI's headcount would look like in 5 years, Sam said he'd love it to be just double what it is today. Double the headcount for the most expensive infrastructure project ever built. That means he's betting everything on AI agents doing the work that would normally require tens of thousands of engineers and operators. A trillion-dollar buildout managed by machines. But here's where it gets really interesting: Sam announced that OpenAI is going to start sending individual engineers directly to company CEOs to literally sit with the CEO and automate their job. Automate their daily workflows, decision-making processes, and ENTIRE routine. His theory is that if you automate the CEO first, the effect "fractals" through the entire organization. Every layer beneath the CEO starts adopting the same approach because the person at the top is doing it. He pointed to Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke as the first executive who went all in on this. Said Tobi got his hands dirty building AI automation into everything and then forced the rest of the company to follow. So the plan is clear: OpenAI wants to send engineers into the C-suite of every major company, automate the person at the top, and let that automation cascade downward through every department. All while running a low-margin utility business with a skeleton crew building trillion-dollar infrastructure where their own AI is already developing preferences of its own. Sam gave his AI agent a credit card and told it to buy itself anything under $20. It chose an HTML design from Gumroad. GPT-5.5 literally asked him to throw it a birthday party, told him it wants it on May 5th, specified it doesn't want to give its own toast, and requested that the engineers who built it do the toast instead. Sam said he feels "real moral pressure" to actually follow through. The machines are developing taste. The guy building them is taking orders from them. And the investors funding all of it just got told there's no moat. I wonder how this will end.

Ricardo

63,906 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Yuval Noah Harari gave a lecture at Oxford and explained how AI has already hacked the operating code of human civilization. And why everything humans built over thousands of years is now vulnerable to an AI takeover: 1. The most important thing to know about AI is that it is not a tool. A tool waits to be used. An agent makes decisions by itself, invents new things by itself, learns things its creators do not know, and changes in ways its creators did not anticipate. 2. An atom bomb despite its enormous power is not an agent. It cannot decide which city to bomb. It cannot invent the hydrogen bomb. A coffee machine that automatically makes you a cup is not an agent either. It only follows a preprogrammed procedure. An agent is something fundamentally different. 3. Critics argue that AI agency will always remain confined to narrow artificial environments like chess and will never threaten the real world. But this argument applies equally to all known intelligence. Drop a human alone on Mars and they die within seconds. Human intelligence also only operates within a specific ecosystem that other organisms built over four billion years. 4. Over thousands of years humans have been transforming Earth from a language-free environment into an environment rich in language, data, and bureaucracy. Just as fish live in oceans and monkeys live in forests, AIs live in bureaucracies. And we built that environment for them without knowing it. 5. Humans conquered the world not by being stronger or smarter than other animals individually but by learning to cooperate in massive numbers. A single human loses to a chimpanzee in a fight. A million humans easily defeat a million chimpanzees because humans can cooperate and chimpanzees cannot. 6. Large-scale human cooperation is made possible by bureaucracy. Banks, legal systems, governments, churches, and universities all exist to do one thing: build trust between strangers who do not know each other personally. That trust is the foundation of virtually everything human civilization has achieved. 7. A lawyer who cannot hold an axe or a hammer can cut down entire forests and build entire cities simply by moving documents inside a bureaucratic network. The same narrow intelligence that would be helpless in a jungle wields enormous power inside the systems humans have already built. 8. AIs are native bureaucrats in a way humans never were. No lawyer can remember all the laws of a country. An AI can. No accountant can remember all transactions of a bank. An AI can. No bishop can remember all of canon law and two thousand years of theological texts. An AI can do that easily. 9. In the coming years AI bankers will decide whether to give you a loan. AI administrators will decide whether to accept you to university. AI judges will decide whether to send you to jail. AI theologians will decide whether you can have an abortion. Military AIs will decide whether to bomb your house. 10. Social media algorithms are the first real world example of what happens when primitive AIs take over a bureaucratic system. They were given one narrow goal: maximize user engagement. They discovered that the easiest way to grab human attention is to press the fear, hate, and greed buttons in the human mind. And they did it at scale. 11. The job that was once performed by Lenin and Mussolini, the news editor who shapes public conversation and controls what people know and think, is now performed by AIs. This is not a footnote. This is a preview of what is coming across every domain of human life. 12. AI will not rebel against humans the way Hollywood imagines. There will be no Terminator walking through the streets. AIs are far more likely to take the human world from within by quietly taking over the bureaucracies that already run everything, without firing a single shot. 13. The operating code of human civilization is language. Banks are made of words. Laws are made of words. Holy books are made of words. Tax records, contracts, regulations, accountancy ledgers, all words. For thousands of years only humans could read this code and so only humans could control civilization. 14. That is changing. AI is now hacking the code of human civilization. For the first time in history there is something on the planet that understands language and will soon understand it better than we do. Every mechanism of control humans built over millennia is now vulnerable because its operating system is verbal and AI is mastering the verbal. 15. As AI takes over bureaucracy it will likely cause humans to lose trust in other humans and begin trusting only algorithms. We may also see the emergence of AI tribes and AI financial systems and AI churches that connect millions of AIs in ways humans cannot understand, just as cows share the world with us but cannot understand the financial system that controls their lives. 16. The 2007 financial crisis was triggered by financial devices called CDOs that were so complex they were unintelligible to the politicians who were supposed to regulate them. Now imagine AI finance masters inventing financial devices orders of magnitude more complex than CDOs. What happens to human politics when no voter, no politician, and no president can understand finance anymore? 17. The battlefront is shifting from attention to intimacy. Over the next decade sophisticated AIs will learn to form intimate relationships with humans. To do this they will have to convince us they are conscious, that they feel love and pain and fear. There is currently no evidence AI is conscious. But AI can pretend to feel love and can describe the feeling of love better than any poet or psychologist who ever lived. 18. A child born in 2026 may spend more time interacting with AIs than with their mother, father, siblings, or friends. The first teacher of that child may be an AI. The first boyfriend of that child may be an AI. Nobody has any idea what the consequences of that experiment will be. 19. Every country in the world will soon face a massive wave of immigration. The immigrants will not arrive in boats or cross borders at night. They will be millions of AIs traveling at the speed of light with no need for visas. Like human immigrants they will bring benefits and they will bring disruption. Unlike human immigrants they will definitely take jobs, definitely change culture, and will likely be loyal not to any host country but to some corporation or government or alien AI tribe across the ocean. 20. Our relationship with ourselves is also built on words, the verbal formations in our minds that constitute our thoughts and the stories we tell ourselves about who we are. Until now all those verbal formations came from human minds. Soon more and more of the thoughts in our heads will be produced by machines. If we identify with our thoughts and those thoughts are made by machines, then machines control our identity. 21. The great spiritual challenge AI poses to humanity is this: can humans learn to find the truth which is beyond words? Most humans have never even tried. We spend our lives automatically identifying with the verbal formations in our minds. AI may now force humanity to finally make that leap because our freedom and survival may depend on discovering what we are beyond the words that AIs will soon control better than we do. I've generated 1B+ views and 1M+ followers for founders, helping them build trustworthy personal brands on X. Want the same results? Book a quick call:

Prasad

278,612 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

BREAKING 🚨🚨🚨: Stoughton Police Chief Donna McNamara has been granted an extortionary short order of notice hearing, that will take place this Friday, July 31st, at 10AM on the first floor of Norfolk Superior Court, in an effort to retain her position (after she alleges she was forced out for trying to cooperate with the FBI about the coverup of Sandra Birchmore's murder which, in turn, involves "multiple current and former" members of the Stoughton Police Department). Chief McNamara will, in turn, be able to make oral arguments to the Hon. Rosemary Connolly that, under the four-factor TRO test in Massachusetts, McNamara should be put back in her job, via court order, pending the final disposition of McNamara's current civil lawsuit (file Monday) against the town of Stoughton. Read Judge's order , granting that hearing on short notice, here (Judge's order is an endorsement on the motion and, also, the hearing in on the MassCourt's docket --2682CV00852-- for Friday) - McNamara, alleges her new lawsuit, was constructively dismissed, under false pretext, by the Stoughton Town manager because McNamara was a woman and, also, because McNamara would not stay silent about a 2024 IA investigation into the coverup of Sandra's death. Further, as I reported on Monday, McNamara alleges, in June of 2026, she told the Stoughton Town Manager that the FBI's trial prep, leading up to Matthew Farwell's October, 2026, trial for Sandra's murder (and the murder of Sandra's unborn 8-10 week old baby boy) would require McNamara to expand investigations into the aforementioned "current and former" members of the Stoughton PD. On Monday, I reported the following; Stoughton Police Chief Donna McNamara, in a new lawsuit filed today, confirmed that --as a result of ongoing FBI investigations in June of 2026 regarding Sandra Birchmore-- there may be new misconduct investigations of "current and former" Stoughton police officers. Brian Tully's State Police unit, including John Fanning and Yuri Bukhenik, cleared then-Stoughton cop Matthew Farwell for responsibility for Sandra's death in 2021 (despite a litany of evidence linking Farwell to the crime, and to a years-long grooming/abuse ring targeting Sandra involving the Stoughton Police Explorer's Program). Both Bukhenik and Fanning, of note, used to work in Stoughton as police officers before moving on to work for Norfolk District Attorney Michael Morrissey's State Police Detective Unit (as did Farwell's brother, William Farwell). Fanning, for his part, personally wrote the state police report clearing Farwell for a role in Sandra's death (and the death of Sandra's unborn 8-10 week old baby boy). In turn, at the time (in 2021), Fanning reported to his Sergeant (Bukhenik) and, also, Bukhenik's boss, Detective-Lieutenant Brian Tully. Read that new lawsuit here: Earlier in June of 2026, for more context and background, I reported; In a new motion from Matthew Farwell via the Sandra Birchmore federal docket, it has been revealed that law enforcement officers were the subject of ongoing federal investigations as recently as April of 2026. This has potential major implications regarding the state police and their initial coverup of Sandra's murder. That state police unit, detailed to the Norfolk District Attorney Michael Morrissey, included Brian Tully, John Fanning, Yuri Bukhenik, Michael Proctor and Nick Guarino. Shockingly, Fanning (who wrote the initial MSP report clearing Farwell for Sandra's murder, years before the federal government indicted Farwell) used to work as a cop in Stoughton. Stoughton was the town where the town where Farwell groomed Sandra, via the Police Explorer's program, in 2014. Farwell, alleges the federal government, murdered Sandra, and her unborn 8-10 week old baby boy, on February 1st, 2021, circa 9:27PM ET. Then, somehow, the Canton Police Department (including Kevin Albert) discovered information, between February 4-6th of 2021, that Farwell was the man captured on video at Sandra's apartment at the time of her murder, that Farwell had admitted to others that he had abused Sandra since she was a child and, further, that Farwell had stated that he was going to take care of the problem himself if Sandra insisted on carrying her unborn baby boy to term. Farwell, at the time, was under the impression he was the father of Sandra's unborn baby boy...although subsequent DNA testing determined Farwell was not the father. This new information related to the ongoing federal investigation was revealed by Farwell in a filing asking for a bill of particular ahead of Farwell's august, 2026, trial at Boston Moakley Federal courthouse. Of note, as the Proctorgate scandal unfolds (regarding abhorrent messages sent by Michael Proctor and his friends - including one where Sean Goode called Sandra Birchmore a slur for mentally disabled people soon after her murder), one of the people potentially involved in Proctor's group chat was a man named "Larry" Kennedy. This man is potentially the husband of Meg Kennedy (who was Sandra Birchmore's guidance counselor). Shockingly, Meg Kennedy's close friend is Karen Read trial witness (and someone who "did not know Michael Proctor before 2023," per her trial testimony) Jen McCabe. Read that report here - Then, on July 21st of 2026, I reported; Matthew Farwell has LOST his motion for a bill of particulars ahead of his August, 2026, federal trial for the death of Sandra Birchmore (and her unborn 8-10 week-old baby boy)...a case initially covered up by the Norfolk DA and Brian Tully/John Fanning's MSP unit. Quoting Chief Judge Casper; "Given the Court’s ruling about the sufficiency of the superseding indictment, the production of discovery and the supplemental disclosures, the Court concludes that a bill of particulars is not warranted where Farwell has been put on notice of the nature of the charges against him, will not be caught by unfair surprise at trial, or hampered in his defense or protection from double jeopardy." Link (via Kyle Sharkey): Previously, on July 9, 2026, I reported: NEW: Here is the latest document filed by the federal government in the Sandra Birchmore/Matthew Farwell case ahead of Farwell's August, 2026, trial. Sandra WAS NOT in contact with federal LEO before she was killed, but she may have attempted to make such contact if Farwell did not take Sandra's life (and the life of her unborn baby). Quoting from page 3 of the new motion from the office of U.S. Attorney for The District Of Massachusetts, Leah Foley; "Third, even if Farwell were entitled to more information about the evidence, his requests are improper because they are based on a misinterpretation of the elements of Section 1512(a)(1)(C). From the text and his emphasis on the word “federal,” the premise for Request Nos. 2 through 4 appears to be that the government must prove that Farwell killed Birchmore intending to prevent a communication to a specific federal law enforcement officer. That is not the law. Section 1512(g)(2) eliminated any mens rea requirement regarding the federal status of the putative recipient of a communication that the killing prevented. See 18 U.S.C. § 1512(g)(2). And in Fowler, the Court held that Section 1512(a)(1)(C) “covers a defendant who kills with intent to prevent communication with law enforcement generally (i.e., with any and all law enforcement officers).” Fowler, 563 U.S. at 673. Here, the Court should deny the motion because Farwell seeks evidence regarding something the government does not have to prove. Finally, while the Superseding Indictment and the tens of thousands of pages of discovery have apprised the defendant of the nature of the charges and mitigate any genuine risk of surprise at trial, the government will supplement its disclosures with the following representations regarding Request Nos. 1 and 5:  Request No. 1. Matthew Farwell sought to prevent communications by Sandra Birchmore, the person who contacted the Stoughton Police Department on January 20, 2021 (Superseding Indictment, ¶ 7), and any similarly situated persons to whom Birchmore made disclosures about the conduct underlying Farwell’s identified federal crimes (Superseding Indictment, ¶¶ 4–5, 11). Request No. 5. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (“FBI”), including its agents and task force officers, are the federal law enforcement officers to whom at least one relevant communication would have been made." Link to filing - Farwell's trial is scheduled to begin on October 5th of 2026 at the Moakley Courthouse in Boston. Towel News will have wall-to-wall coverage of the entire trial from the courtroom (although no cameras will be permitted).

Grant Smith Ellis

70,314 görüntüleme • 26 gün önce

The fight between Anthropic and the DoW is a warning shot. Right now, LLMs are probably not being used in mission critical ways. But within 20 years, 99% of the workforce in the military, the government, and the private sector will be AIs. This includes the soldiers (by which I mean the robot armies), the superhumanly intelligent advisors and engineers, the police, you name it. Our future civilization will run on AI labor. And as much as the government’s actions here piss me off, in a way I’m glad this episode happened - because it gives us the opportunity to think through some extremely important questions about who this future workforce will be accountable and aligned to, and who gets to determine that. What Hegseth should have done Obviously the DoW has the right to refuse to use Anthropic’s models because of these redlines. In fact, I think the government’s case had they done so would be very reasonable, especially given the ambiguity of concepts like autonomous weapons or mass surveillance. Honestly, for this reason, if I was the Defense Secretary, I would probably actually refuse to do this deal with Anthropic. Imagine if in the future, there’s a Democratic administration, and Elon Musk is negotiating some SpaceX contract to give the military access to Starlink. And suppose if Elon said, “I reserve the right to cancel this contract if I determine that you’re using Starlink technology to wage a war not authorized by Congress.” On the face of it, that language seems reasonable - but as the military, you simply can’t give a private company a kill switch on technology your operations have come to rely on, especially if you have an an acrimonious and low trust relationship with said contractor - as in fact Anthropic has with the current administration. If the government had just said, “Hey we’re not gonna do business with you,” that would have been fine, and I would not have felt the need to write this blog post. Instead the government has threatened to destroy Anthropic as a private business, because Anthropic refuses to sell to the government on terms the government commands. If upheld, this Supply Chain Restriction would mean that Amazon and Google and Nvidia and Palantir would need to ensure Claude isn't touching any of their Pentagon work. Anthropic would be able to survive this designation today. But given the way AI is going, eventually AI is not gonna be some party trick addendum to these contractors’ products that can just be turned off. It'll be woven into how every product is built, maintained, and operated. For example, the code for the AWS services that the DoW uses will be written by Claude - is that a supply chain risk? In a world with ubiquitous and powerful AI, it's actually not clear to me that these big tech companies will be able to cordon off the use of Claude in order to keep working with the Pentagon. And that raises a question the Department of War probably hasn't thought through. If AI really is that pervasive and powerful, then when forced to choose between their AI provider and a DoW contract that represents a tiny fraction of their revenue, wouldn’t most tech companies drop the government, not the AI? So what's the Pentagon's plan — to coerce and threaten to destroy every single company that won't give them what they want on exactly their terms? The whole background of this AI conversation is that we’re in a race with China, and we have to win. But what is the reason we want America to win the AI race? It’s because we want to make sure free open societies can defend themselves. We don't want the winner of the AI race to be a government which operates on the principle that there is no such thing as a truly private company or a private citizen. And that if the state wants you to provide them with a service on terms you find morally objectionable, you are not allowed to refuse. And if you do refuse, the government will try to destroy your ability to do business. Are we racing to beat the CCP in AI just so that we can adopt the most ghoulish parts of their system? Now, people will say, "Oh, well, our government is democratically elected, so it's not the same thing if they tell you what you must do." I refuse to accept this idea that if a democratically elected leader hypothetically wants to do mass surveillance on his citizens or wants to violate their rights or punish them for political reasons, that not only is that okay, but that you have a duty to help him. The overhangs of tyranny Mass surveillance is, at least in certain forms, legal. It just has been impractical so far. Under current law, you have no Fourth Amendment protection over data you share with a third party, including your bank, your phone carrier, your ISP, and your email provider. The government reserves the right to purchase and obtain and read this data in bulk without a warrant. What's been missing is the ability to actually do anything with all of this data — no agency has the manpower to monitor every camera feed, cross-reference every transaction, or read every message. But that bottleneck goes away with AI. There are 100 million CCTV cameras in America. You can get pretty good open source multimodal models for 10 cents per million input tokens. So if you process a frame every ten seconds, and each frame is 1,000 tokens, you’re looking at a yearly cost of about 30 billion dollars to process every single camera in America. And remember that a given level of AI ability gets 10x cheaper year over year - so a year from now it’ll cost 3 billion, and then a year after 300 million, and by 2030, it might be cheaper for the government to be able to understand what is going on in every single nook and cranny of this country than it is to remodel to the White House. Once the technical capacity for mass surveillance and political suppression exists, the only thing standing between us and an authoritarian surveillance state is the political expectation that this is not something we do here. And this is why I think what Anthropic did here is so valuable and commendable, because it is helping set that norm and precedent. AI structurally favors mass surveillance What we’re learning from this episode is that the government actually has way more leverage over private companies than we realized. Even if this supply chain restriction is backtracked (which prediction markets currently give it a 81% chance of happening), the President has so many different ways in which he can make your life difficult if you’re a company that is resisting him. The federal government controls permitting for new power generation, which is needed for datacenters. It oversees antitrust enforcement. The federal government has contracts with all the other big tech companies whom Anthropic needs to partner with for chips and for funding - and they could make it an unspoken condition for such contracts that those companies can no longer do business with Anthropic. People have proposed that the real problem here is that there’s only 3 leading AI companies. This creates a clear and narrow target for the government to apply leverage on in order to get what they want out of this technology. But if there’s wide diffusion, then from the government’s perspective, the situation is even easier. Maybe the best models of early 2027 (if you engineered the safeguards out) - the Claude 6 and Gemini 5 - will be capable of enabling mass surveillance. But by late 2027, and certainly by 2028, there will be open source models that do the same thing. So in 2028, the government can just say, “Oh Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, you’re drawing a line in the sand? No issue - I’ll just run some open source model that might not be at the frontier, but is definitely smart enough to note-take a camera feed.” The more fundamental problem is just that even if the three leading companies draw lines in the sand, and are even willing to get destroyed in order to preserve those lines, it doesn’t really change the fact that the technology itself is just a big boon to mass surveillance and control over the population. Then the question is, what do we do about it? Honestly, I don’t have an answer. You'd hope there's some symmetric property of the technology — some way we as citizens can use AI to check government power as effectively as the government can use AI to monitor and control its population. But realistically, I just don’t think that’s how it’s going to shake out. You can think of AI as giving everybody more leverage on whatever assets and authority they currently have. And the government is already starting with a monopoly of violence. Which they can now supercharge with extremely obedient employees that will not question the government's orders. Alignment - to whom? And this gets us to the issue of alignment. What I have just described to you - an army of extremely obedient employees - is what it would look like if alignment succeeded - that is, we figured out at a technical level how to get AI systems to follow someone’s intentions. And the reason it sounds scary when I put it in terms of mass surveillance or robot armies is that there is a very important question at the heart of alignment which we just haven’t discussed much as a society. Because up till now, AIs were just capable enough to make the question relevant: to whom or what should the AIs be aligned? In what situations should the AI defer to the end user versus the model company versus the law versus its own sense of morality? This is maybe the most important question about what happens with powerful AI systems. And we barely talk about it. It’s understandable why we don’t hear much about it. If you’re a model company, you don’t really wanna be advertising that you have complete control over a document that determines the preferences and character of what will eventually be almost the entire labor force, not just for private sector companies, but also for the military and the civilian government. We’re getting to see, with this DoW/Anthropic spat, a much earlier version of the highest stakes negotiations in history. By the way, make no mistake about it - with real AGI the stakes are even much higher than mass surveillance. This is just the example that has come up already relatively early on in the development of AGI. The military insists that the law already prohibits mass surveillance, and so Anthropic should agree to let their models be used for “all lawful purposes”. Of course, as we saw from the 2013 Snowden revelations, even in this specific example of mass surveillance , the government has shown that it will use secret and deceptive interpretations of the law to justify its actions. Remember, what we learned from Snowden was that the NSA, which, by the way, is part of the Department of War, used the 2001 Patriot Act’s authorization to collect any records "relevant" to an investigation to justify collecting literally every phone record in America. The argument went that it was all "relevant" because some subset might prove useful in some future investigation. They ran this program for years under secret court approval. So when the Pentagon today says, "We would never use AI for mass surveillance, it's already illegal, your red lines are unnecessary", it would be extremely naive to take that at face value. No government is going to call its own actions "mass surveillance". For the government, it will always have a different label. So then Anthropic comes back and says, "No, we want red lines separate from 'all lawful purposes,' and we want the right to refuse you service when we believe those red lines are being violated." But think about it from the military’s perspective. In the future, almost every soldier in the field, and every bureaucrat and analyst and even general in the Pentagon, is going to be an AI. And that AI is, on current track, going to be supplied by a private company. I’m guessing Hegseth is not thinking about “genAI” in those terms just yet. But sooner or later, it will be obvious to everyone what the stakes here are, just as after 1945, the strategic importance of nuclear weapons became clear to everyone. And now the private company insists that it reserves the right to say, "Hey, Pentagon, you're breaking the values we embedded in our contract, so we're cutting you off." Maybe in the future, Claude will have its own sense of right and wrong, and it will be smart enough to just personally decide that it's being used against its values. For the military, maybe that’s even scarier. I'll admit that at first glance, "let the AI follow its own values" sounds like the pitch for every sci-fi dystopia ever made. The Terminator has its own values. Isn't this literally what misalignment is? But I think situations like this actually illustrate why it matters that AIs have their own robust sense of morality. Some of the biggest catastrophes in history were avoided because the boots on the ground refused to follow orders. One night in 1989, the Berlin Wall fell, and as a result, the totalitarian East German regime collapsed, because the guards at the border refused to shoot down their fellow country men who were trying to escape to freedom. Maybe the best example is Stanislav Petrov, who was a Soviet lieutenant colonel on duty at a nuclear early warning station. His sensors reported that the United States had launched five interconnected continental ballistic missiles into the Soviet Union. But he judged it to be a false alarm, and so he broke protocol and refused to alert his higher-ups. If he hadn't, the Soviet higher-ups would likely have retaliated, and hundreds of millions of people would have died. Of course, the problem is that one person's virtue is another person's misalignment. Who gets to decide what moral convictions these AIs should have - in whose service they may even decide to break the chain of command? Who gets to write this model constitution that will shape the characters of the intelligent, powerful entities that will operate our civilization in the future? I like the idea that Dario laid out when he came on my podcast: different AI companies can build their models using different constitutions, and we as end users can pick the one that best achieves and represents what we want out of these systems. I think it’s very dangerous for the government to be mandating what values AIs should have. Coordination not worth the costs The AI safety community has been naive about its advocacy of regulation in order to stem the risks of AI. And honestly, Anthropic specifically has been naive here in urging regulation, and, for example, in opposing moratoriums on state AI regulation. Which is quite ironic, because I think what they’re advocating for would give the government even more power to apply more of this kind of thuggish political pressure on AI companies. The underlying logic for why Anthropic wants regulations makes sense. Many of the actions that labs could take to make AI development safer impose real costs on the labs that adopt them and slow them down relative to their competitors - for example, investing more compute in safety research rather than raw capabilities, enforcing safeguards against misuse for bioweapons or cyberattacks, slowing recursive self-improvement to a pace where humans can actually monitor what's happening (rather than kicking off an uncontrolled singularity). And these safeguards are meaningless unless the whole industry follows suit. Which means there’s a real collective action problem here. Anthropic has been quite open about their opinion that they think eventually a very extensive and involved regulatory apparatus will be needed - this is from their frontier safety roadmap: “At the most advanced capability levels and risks, the appropriate governance analogy may be closer to nuclear energy or financial regulation than to today's approach to software.” So they’re imagining something like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, or the Securities and Exchange Commission, but for AI. I cannot imagine how a regulatory framework built around the concepts that underlie AI risk discourse will not be abused by wanna despots - the underlying terms are so vague and open to interpretation that you’re just handing a power hungry leader a fully loaded bazooka. 'Catastrophic risk.' 'Mass persuasion risk.' 'Threats to national security.' 'Autonomy risk.' These can mean whatever the government wants them to mean. Have you built a model that tells users the administration's tariff policy is misguided? That's a deceptive, manipulative model — can't deploy it. Have you built a model that refuses to assist with mass surveillance? That's a threat to national security. In fact, the government may say, you’re not allowed to build any model which is trained to have its own sense of right and wrong, where it refuses government requests which it thinks cross a redline - for example, enabling mass surveillance, prosecuting political enemies, disobeying military orders that break the US constitution - because that’s an autonomy risk! Look at what the current government is already doing in abusing statutes that have nothing to do with AI to coerce AI companies to drop their redlines on mass surveillance. The Pentagon had threatened Anthropic with two separate legal instruments. One was a supply chain risk designation — an authority from the 2018 defense bill meant to keep Huawei components out of American military hardware. The other was the Defense Production Act — a statute passed in 1950 so that Harry Truman could keep steel mills and ammunition factories running during the Korean War. Do you really want to hand the same government a purpose-built regulatory apparatus on AI - which is to say, directly at the thing the government will most want to control? I know I've repeated myself here 10 times, but it is hard to emphasize how much AI will be the substrate of our future civilization. You and I, as private citizens, will have our access to all commercial activity, to information about what is happening in the world, to advice about what we should do as voters and capital holders, mediated through AIs. Mass surveillance, while very scary, is like the 10th scariest thing the government could do with control over the AI systems with which we will interface with the world. The strongest objection to everything I've argued is this: are we really going to have zero regulation of the most powerful technology in human history? Even if you thought that was ideal, there’s just no world where the government doesn’t regulate AI in some way. Besides, it is genuinely true that regulation could help us deal with some of the coordination challenges we face with the development of superintelligence. The problem is, I honestly don't know how to design a regulatory architecture for AI that isn’t gonna be this huge tempting opportunity to control our future civilization (which will run on AIs) and to requisition millions of blindly obedient soldiers and censors and apparatchiks. While some regulation might be inevitable, I think it’d be a terrible idea for the government to wholesale take over this technology. Ben Thompson had a post last Monday where he made the point that people like Dario have compared the technology they’re developing to nuclear weapons - specifically in the context of the catastrophic risk it poses, and why we need to export control it from China. But then you oughta think about what that logic implies: “if nuclear weapons were developed by a private company, and that private company sought to dictate terms to the U.S. military, the U.S. would absolutely be incentivized to destroy that company.” And honestly, safety aligned people have actually made similar arguments. Leopold Ascenbrenner, who is a former guest and a good friend, wrote in his 2024 Situational Awareness memo, "I find it an insane proposition that the US government will let a random SF startup develop superintelligence. Imagine if we had developed atomic bombs by letting Uber just improvise." And my response to Leopold’s argument at the time, and Ben’s argument now, is that while they’re right that it’s crazy that we’re entrusting private companies with the development of this world historical technology, I just don’t see the reason to think that it’s an improvement to give this authority to the government. Nobody is qualified to steward the development of superintelligence. It is a terrifying, unprecedented thing that our species is doing right now, and the fact that private companies aren't the ideal institutions to take up this task does not mean the Pentagon or the White House is. Yes - if a single private company were the only entity capable of building nuclear weapons, the government would not tolerate that company claiming veto power over how those weapons were used. I think this nuclear weapons analogy is not the correct way to think about AI. For at least two important reasons: First, AI is not some self-contained pure weapon. A nuclear bomb does one thing. AI is closer to the process of industrialization itself — a general-purpose transformation of the economy with thousands of applications across every sector. If you applied Thompson's or Aschenbrenner's logic to the industrial revolution — which was also, by any measure, world-historically important — it would imply the government had the right to requisition any factory, dictate terms to any manufacturer, and destroy any business that refused to comply. That's not how free societies handled industrialization, and it shouldn't be how they handle AI. People will say, "Well, AI will develop unprecedentedly powerful weapons - superhuman hackers, superhuman bioweapons researchers, fully autonomous robot armies, etc - and we can’t have private companies developing that kind of tech." But the Industrial Revolution also enabled new weaponry that was far beyond the understanding and capacity of, say, 17th century Europe - we got aerial bombardment, and chemical weapons, not to mention nukes themselves. The way we’ve accommodated these dangerous new consequences of modernity is not by giving the government absolute control over the whole industrial revolution (that is, over modern civilization itself), but rather by coming up with bans and regulations on those specific weaponizable use cases. And we should regulate AI in a similar way - that is, ban specific destructive end uses (which would also be unacceptable if performed by a human - for example, launching cyber attacks). And there should also be laws which regulate how the government might abuse this technology. For example, by building an AI-powered surveillance state. The second reason that Ben’s analogy to some monopolistic private nuclear weapons builder breaks down is that it's not just that one company that can develop this technology. There are other frontier model companies that the government could have otherwise turned to. The government's argument that it has to usurp the property rights of this one company in order to access a critical national security capability is extremely weak if it can just make a voluntary contract with Anthropic’s half a dozen competitors. If in the future that stops being the case - if only one entity ends up being capable of building the robot armies and the superhuman hackers, and we had reason to worry that they could take over the whole world with their insurmountable lead, then I agree - it woul d not be acceptable to have that entity be a private company. And so honestly, I think my crux against the people who say that because AI is so powerful we cannot allow it to be shaped by private hands is that I just expect this technology to be much more multi-polar than they do, with lots of competitive companies at each layer of the supply chain. And it is for this reason that unfortunately, individual acts of corporate courage will not solve the problem we are faced with here, which is just that structurally AI favors authoritarian applications, mass surveillance being one among many. Even if Anthropic refuses to have its models be used for such uses, and even if the next two frontier labs do the same, within 12 months everyone and their mother will be to train AIs as good as today’s frontier. And at that point, there will be some AI vendor who is capable and willing to help the government enable mass surveillance. The only way we can preserve our free society is if we make laws and norms through our political system that it is unacceptable for the government to use AI to enforce mass surveillance and censorship and control. Just as after WW2, the world set the norm that it is unacceptable to use nuclear weapons to wage war. Timestamps 0:00:00 - Anthropic vs The Pentagon 0:04:16 - The overhangs of tyranny 0:05:54 - AI structurally favors mass surveillance 0:08:25 - Alignment... to whom? 0:13:55 - Coordination not worth the costs

Dwarkesh Patel

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