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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The ink wasn't even dry before both sides started walking it back. Brandon Weichert argues talks of an imminent deal with Iran have been greatly exaggerated. "I don't actually believe this deal is real. And I'm sorry to say that I know a lot of people were understandably... show more

Mario Nawfal

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48,973 views • 4 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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BRANDON WEICHERT: We are still not close to a deal. Any deal that sees the Iranians in control of the Strait of Hormuz, in any way, is going to be perceived as a failure. — The fear in Riyadh and elsewhere in the Arab states is if that Strait remains closed, then nobody is selling oil. Brandon Weichert

BRANDON WEICHERT: We are still not close to a deal. Any deal that sees the Iranians in control of the Strait of Hormuz, in any way, is going to be perceived as a failure. — The fear in Riyadh and elsewhere in the Arab states is if that Strait remains closed, then nobody is selling oil. Brandon Weichert

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35,449 views • 5 months ago

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Over 100 days of strikes and the bulk of Iran's missile force may still be untouched. Brandon Weichert says the intelligence community is now worried that many of the launchers hit were decoys. "A lot of what they've been hitting in terms of launchers were either outright decoys or were only part of the force that we were hitting." Iran doesn't even need missiles. It just needs to squeeze the Strait of Hormuz. Brandon Weichert

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Over 100 days of strikes and the bulk of Iran's missile force may still be untouched. Brandon Weichert says the intelligence community is now worried that many of the launchers hit were decoys. "A lot of what they've been hitting in terms of launchers were either outright decoys or were only part of the force that we were hitting." Iran doesn't even need missiles. It just needs to squeeze the Strait of Hormuz. Brandon Weichert

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51,985 views • 3 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran may have already decided Trump is a lame duck it can simply wait out. Brandon Weichert points to Tehran’s demands over the Strait of Hormuz, including control over which ships pass and potential reparations, as evidence that the two sides are negotiating from completely different realities. "The Iranians don't respect Trump anymore. They're angry at him and they don't want to deal with him." If Tehran believes the U.S. economy will deteriorate faster than Iran’s, Brandon says it may see little reason to compromise, risking a return to war. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran may have already decided Trump is a lame duck it can simply wait out. Brandon Weichert points to Tehran’s demands over the Strait of Hormuz, including control over which ships pass and potential reparations, as evidence that the two sides are negotiating from completely different realities. "The Iranians don't respect Trump anymore. They're angry at him and they don't want to deal with him." If Tehran believes the U.S. economy will deteriorate faster than Iran’s, Brandon says it may see little reason to compromise, risking a return to war. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

79,595 views • 1 month ago

🇮🇷 Iran's parliament locked the Hormuz tolls into law, and no deal can undo it. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert breaks down why the 60-day clock may not matter much. Iran's parliament already passed tolls on the strait, and Weichert says there's no walking that back: "This is forever. This is everything." That's the trap nobody's accounting for. Once revenge gets written into legislation, no negotiated deal is built to survive it. Brandon Weichert

🇮🇷 Iran's parliament locked the Hormuz tolls into law, and no deal can undo it. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert breaks down why the 60-day clock may not matter much. Iran's parliament already passed tolls on the strait, and Weichert says there's no walking that back: "This is forever. This is everything." That's the trap nobody's accounting for. Once revenge gets written into legislation, no negotiated deal is built to survive it. Brandon Weichert

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57,042 views • 3 months ago

🇮🇷 Brandon Weichert says the proposed Strait of Hormuz arrangement is running into a problem nobody can negotiate away: the people who actually move the world's cargo. Reports of Iran demanding 5–7% of cargo value in transit fees have raised alarm among shipping sources. Brandon compares that with fees charged in other major waterways and argues the difference is too large to ignore. Even if Washington, Tehran and Oman reach an agreement, he says insurers and ship owners may simply refuse to participate. "The politicians can make a deal. But shippers decide whether the ships move." Brandon Weichert

🇮🇷 Brandon Weichert says the proposed Strait of Hormuz arrangement is running into a problem nobody can negotiate away: the people who actually move the world's cargo. Reports of Iran demanding 5–7% of cargo value in transit fees have raised alarm among shipping sources. Brandon compares that with fees charged in other major waterways and argues the difference is too large to ignore. Even if Washington, Tehran and Oman reach an agreement, he says insurers and ship owners may simply refuse to participate. "The politicians can make a deal. But shippers decide whether the ships move." Brandon Weichert

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67,162 views • 2 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The leaked text of this deal could become a political bomb for Trump before the ink is even dry. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert says the agreement gives Iran a major win while leaving Washington exposed. “The Iranians are getting a conditional surrender from the United States.” Now Israel holds the match. The only question is whether they light it. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The leaked text of this deal could become a political bomb for Trump before the ink is even dry. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert says the agreement gives Iran a major win while leaving Washington exposed. “The Iranians are getting a conditional surrender from the United States.” Now Israel holds the match. The only question is whether they light it. Brandon Weichert

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68,531 views • 3 months ago

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 There is no deal, and the ceasefire itself may have been called because Trump needed to slow the economic bleeding, and the U.S. arsenal is running bone dry. Brandon Weichert says Iran made $1.7 billion in Strait tolls in 30 days and has zero incentive to stop. Even if they sign the current framework, they get up to 30 days to remove the blockade, and they would take every second of it. "This thing will become an Iranian river." Brandon Weichert

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 There is no deal, and the ceasefire itself may have been called because Trump needed to slow the economic bleeding, and the U.S. arsenal is running bone dry. Brandon Weichert says Iran made $1.7 billion in Strait tolls in 30 days and has zero incentive to stop. Even if they sign the current framework, they get up to 30 days to remove the blockade, and they would take every second of it. "This thing will become an Iranian river." Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

70,322 views • 4 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 One phone call to Lloyd’s of London could shake the global economy. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert argues Iran doesn’t need to fully close the Strait of Hormuz. It only needs the credible ability to disrupt shipping long enough for insurers, markets, and governments to panic. “All they have to do is have the believable ability to disrupt shipping for a protracted period of time through the Strait of Hormuz.” Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 One phone call to Lloyd’s of London could shake the global economy. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert argues Iran doesn’t need to fully close the Strait of Hormuz. It only needs the credible ability to disrupt shipping long enough for insurers, markets, and governments to panic. “All they have to do is have the believable ability to disrupt shipping for a protracted period of time through the Strait of Hormuz.” Brandon Weichert

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13,139 views • 3 months ago

🇮🇷 Iran can't accept a deal that puts Hormuz back the way it was, even with sanctions relief on the table. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert explains the trap Tehran built for itself by making resistance the center of its image: "If the pressure of the war is lifted and everything goes back to the way it was before the war, a lot of Iranians might be sitting there going, what the hell was this all for?" The regime needs something tangible to show for the damage, which is why a tolling system keeps coming back to the table. Brandon Weichert

🇮🇷 Iran can't accept a deal that puts Hormuz back the way it was, even with sanctions relief on the table. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert explains the trap Tehran built for itself by making resistance the center of its image: "If the pressure of the war is lifted and everything goes back to the way it was before the war, a lot of Iranians might be sitting there going, what the hell was this all for?" The regime needs something tangible to show for the damage, which is why a tolling system keeps coming back to the table. Brandon Weichert

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62,318 views • 2 months ago

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The US counter-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is leaking. Brandon Weichert says the Navy simply doesn't have enough ships to stop it. Chinese vessels are almost certainly slipping through untouched, and the whole operation was improvised under pressure with no real plan behind it. "You have the physical presence of the U.S. navy for the blockade to be effective." Brandon Weichert

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The US counter-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is leaking. Brandon Weichert says the Navy simply doesn't have enough ships to stop it. Chinese vessels are almost certainly slipping through untouched, and the whole operation was improvised under pressure with no real plan behind it. "You have the physical presence of the U.S. navy for the blockade to be effective." Brandon Weichert

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22,641 views • 3 months ago

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran is passing a law through parliament formalizing its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz before any moU is even signed. Brandon Weichert went further and touched upon the fact that the moU only lasts 60 days, and probably would have no impact on a final solution on the nuclear front. "Then we are at an impasse, then the hostilities start all over again." Brandon Weichert

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran is passing a law through parliament formalizing its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz before any moU is even signed. Brandon Weichert went further and touched upon the fact that the moU only lasts 60 days, and probably would have no impact on a final solution on the nuclear front. "Then we are at an impasse, then the hostilities start all over again." Brandon Weichert

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63,014 views • 4 months ago

This Was Never Real Peace, Just a Reload Before the Next Round. The U.S.–Iran “peace deal” and memorandum of understanding were never built to last. Once Trump spoke with Netanyahu, it was obvious this truce was temporary, not transformational. Brandon Weichert (Brandon Weichert) warned on Redacted that the U.S. and Israel are simply pausing to restock their arsenal, not pursuing real diplomacy. It was only a timeout before the next series of strikes.

This Was Never Real Peace, Just a Reload Before the Next Round. The U.S.–Iran “peace deal” and memorandum of understanding were never built to last. Once Trump spoke with Netanyahu, it was obvious this truce was temporary, not transformational. Brandon Weichert (Brandon Weichert) warned on Redacted that the U.S. and Israel are simply pausing to restock their arsenal, not pursuing real diplomacy. It was only a timeout before the next series of strikes.

Redacted

20,374 views • 3 months ago

🇮🇷 Iran just mined the exact side of the Strait of Hormuz now being used for escort missions. Brandon Weichert says that is Tehran’s answer to Washington after the nuclear talks collapsed: “𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘥𝘦𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘯𝘪𝘱 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘥.” This is no longer signaling from a distance... Iran is shaping the battlefield. Brandon Weichert

🇮🇷 Iran just mined the exact side of the Strait of Hormuz now being used for escort missions. Brandon Weichert says that is Tehran’s answer to Washington after the nuclear talks collapsed: “𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘥𝘦𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘯𝘪𝘱 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘥.” This is no longer signaling from a distance... Iran is shaping the battlefield. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

99,266 views • 8 days ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 The deal has passed most approval stages inside Iran, but it's stalled at the highest level, and Netanyahu is not on board. Geopolitical Analyst Brandon Weichert says if the Supreme Leader accepts a deal that doesn't meet America's stated strategic goals, it is a tell that Trump folded completely. The U.S. went into this war with enormous ambitions and achieved none of them. "We're trying to slunk out the back and hope nobody notices. We should have never done this war." Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 The deal has passed most approval stages inside Iran, but it's stalled at the highest level, and Netanyahu is not on board. Geopolitical Analyst Brandon Weichert says if the Supreme Leader accepts a deal that doesn't meet America's stated strategic goals, it is a tell that Trump folded completely. The U.S. went into this war with enormous ambitions and achieved none of them. "We're trying to slunk out the back and hope nobody notices. We should have never done this war." Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

93,018 views • 3 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump still won't say the word "war," and one of his most trusted aides just headed for the exit. Caroline Leavitt resigned with only 2 weeks' notice, well short of the standard month for that role. Meanwhile the administration's public messaging stays vague on where the Iran conflict actually stands, even while negotiating behind the scenes for a deal to end it. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump still won't say the word "war," and one of his most trusted aides just headed for the exit. Caroline Leavitt resigned with only 2 weeks' notice, well short of the standard month for that role. Meanwhile the administration's public messaging stays vague on where the Iran conflict actually stands, even while negotiating behind the scenes for a deal to end it. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

114,606 views • 1 month ago

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The supposed ceasefire in the Gulf is already on thin ice after a dramatic drone and missile exchange targeting an American vessel. Brandon Weichert warns that while low-level negotiators are shaking hands on an unrestricted shipping deal, there's good reason to believe we're just witnessing the calm before another storm. "I don't believe for a second that this is coming to an end. Operations are not shaping for peace, but for a better position for the U.S. and Israeli side in a new round of violence." Brandon Weichert

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The supposed ceasefire in the Gulf is already on thin ice after a dramatic drone and missile exchange targeting an American vessel. Brandon Weichert warns that while low-level negotiators are shaking hands on an unrestricted shipping deal, there's good reason to believe we're just witnessing the calm before another storm. "I don't believe for a second that this is coming to an end. Operations are not shaping for peace, but for a better position for the U.S. and Israeli side in a new round of violence." Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

34,163 views • 4 months ago

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. raided its Indo-Pacific arsenal to fight Iran, and none of it is coming back anytime soon. Brandon Weichert says another round of war could leave everyone exposed, and Trump may be negotiating without fully grasping America's offensive limitations. "The United States military of 2026 is not even the same military of 2003 that invaded Iraq. Even though we have all of this money going into the system, it's going to the contractors, not the actual war capabilities." Brandon Weichert

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. raided its Indo-Pacific arsenal to fight Iran, and none of it is coming back anytime soon. Brandon Weichert says another round of war could leave everyone exposed, and Trump may be negotiating without fully grasping America's offensive limitations. "The United States military of 2026 is not even the same military of 2003 that invaded Iraq. Even though we have all of this money going into the system, it's going to the contractors, not the actual war capabilities." Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

31,459 views • 4 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original arguments over Iran’s nuclear program and missiles are becoming secondary. The real impasse is now control of the Strait of Hormuz. Brandon points to reported departures of anti-war officials and discussions of periodic strikes as signs Trump may be settling into a longer campaign. Washington won’t accept Iranian control of Hormuz. Iran won’t return to the pre-war status quo. That leaves remarkably little room between them. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original arguments over Iran’s nuclear program and missiles are becoming secondary. The real impasse is now control of the Strait of Hormuz. Brandon points to reported departures of anti-war officials and discussions of periodic strikes as signs Trump may be settling into a longer campaign. Washington won’t accept Iranian control of Hormuz. Iran won’t return to the pre-war status quo. That leaves remarkably little room between them. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

64,715 views • 1 month ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's immediate objective is simple: get the U.S. out of the Strait of Hormuz without allowing Iran to dictate who passes through it. The problem is that Tehran now sees Hormuz as its leverage. That may be the central problem with Washington's strategy. Economic warfare can avoid a ground invasion and nuclear escalation. But if Iran believes control of Hormuz is essential to its survival, sanctions may only convince Tehran to hold the strait tighter. The war may have moved from missiles to economics. The underlying confrontation hasn't moved an inch. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's immediate objective is simple: get the U.S. out of the Strait of Hormuz without allowing Iran to dictate who passes through it. The problem is that Tehran now sees Hormuz as its leverage. That may be the central problem with Washington's strategy. Economic warfare can avoid a ground invasion and nuclear escalation. But if Iran believes control of Hormuz is essential to its survival, sanctions may only convince Tehran to hold the strait tighter. The war may have moved from missiles to economics. The underlying confrontation hasn't moved an inch. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

70,863 views • 1 month ago

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran's oil exports have collapsed 90% and inflation is running near 80%, yet it's still the one setting the terms. Brandon Weichert frames this as a race to depletion, a question of who runs out of weapons or money first. The near term favors Tehran, though he doubts Iran can sustain it if the standoff drags past a few months. The real hazard sits in what both capitals believe about themselves. "It takes two to tango. Everybody thinks they've got the better hand and they don't." Which, as Brandon puts it, is not a good spot to be in if you're the world. Brandon Weichert

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🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran's oil exports have collapsed 90% and inflation is running near 80%, yet it's still the one setting the terms. Brandon Weichert frames this as a race to depletion, a question of who runs out of weapons or money first. The near term favors Tehran, though he doubts Iran can sustain it if the standoff drags past a few months. The real hazard sits in what both capitals believe about themselves. "It takes two to tango. Everybody thinks they've got the better hand and they don't." Which, as Brandon puts it, is not a good spot to be in if you're the world. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

51,505 views • 1 month ago