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The market has finally started trading what has been visible for weeks. A 25-basis-point BOJ hike in September or October, more regular hikes going forward, and potential QT changes. The 155 level in dollar-yen is the key. It has been support for four months. If it breaks, a real... show more

LiveSquawk

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14,084 次观看 • 14 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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Dollar-yen has ground from north of 160 to within spitting distance of 155 this week. No intervention, just a slow, steady move. BOJ terminal rate pricing has moved 20 basis points higher. Short yen is a very crowded trade. Every big figure lower makes those shorts more nervous.

Dollar-yen has ground from north of 160 to within spitting distance of 155 this week. No intervention, just a slow, steady move. BOJ terminal rate pricing has moved 20 basis points higher. Short yen is a very crowded trade. Every big figure lower makes those shorts more nervous.

LiveSquawk

16,966 次观看 • 13 天前

The BOJ is hiking at a snail's pace, afraid of repeating the mistake that burst the property bubble. The result is a weak yen, JGB long-end selling off, and no clear commitment to hikes. That is a toxic mix. The government says weak yen helps exports, then complains when it goes too far. The policy mix is not consistent.

The BOJ is hiking at a snail's pace, afraid of repeating the mistake that burst the property bubble. The result is a weak yen, JGB long-end selling off, and no clear commitment to hikes. That is a toxic mix. The government says weak yen helps exports, then complains when it goes too far. The policy mix is not consistent.

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86,361 次观看 • 4 个月前

NEW: The U.S. just made its biggest Bitcoin policy shift in a decade—and it could redefine this cycle. The CFTC has approved federally regulated spot Bitcoin trading, giving institutions real regulatory clarity and direct market access. In the new video, Adam Livingston explains: - What the new framework changes - Why major allocators now have a green light - How this puts the U.S. back in the lead on sound money - What it unlocks for liquidity and the next multi-year cycle This is the catalyst the market has been waiting for. Watch the full analysis to understand what just changed, and why it matters now more than ever.

NEW: The U.S. just made its biggest Bitcoin policy shift in a decade—and it could redefine this cycle. The CFTC has approved federally regulated spot Bitcoin trading, giving institutions real regulatory clarity and direct market access. In the new video, Adam Livingston explains: - What the new framework changes - Why major allocators now have a green light - How this puts the U.S. back in the lead on sound money - What it unlocks for liquidity and the next multi-year cycle This is the catalyst the market has been waiting for. Watch the full analysis to understand what just changed, and why it matters now more than ever.

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Graham Platner on Iran: “This is a war that has been started because Donald Trump is in the Epstein Files and he doesn’t want us reading them. This war has been started because Benjamin Netanyahu has been begging for it for 30 years and finally found a president who is stupid enough to do it”

Graham Platner on Iran: “This is a war that has been started because Donald Trump is in the Epstein Files and he doesn’t want us reading them. This war has been started because Benjamin Netanyahu has been begging for it for 30 years and finally found a president who is stupid enough to do it”

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It's been a wild day for stocks. A global selloff is deepening on growing concerns about the US economy. A rally in the yen has worsened the rout. Avril Hong explains

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There has been a shift in the foundation of Trump's support within the GOP. I had started to notice it, and now the polls are reflecting it.

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🇺🇸 🇯🇵 WARNING: YEN rate hike will trigger global economic crisis in September Yen shorts are at a nine-year high. Every single one of them is a potential forced buyer This is the death spiral: yen at 160, weakest in 40 years → BoJ hikes in September to defend it → the carry trade unwinds → to buy yen back, you have to sell what you bought with it, starting with US Treasuries (Japan is the largest foreign holder) → the 30Y is already at 5.26% (highest since 2007) and it goes higher into forced selling → US debt gets too expensive, the interest is already $1.25 trillion a year → the Fed has to choose between the bond market and inflation → it picks the bond market (because Trump forces Warsh to do it) and prints new dollars → middle class incomes get wiped, floating-rate debt and small business break first → consumption drops hard → tax revenue drops, deficit widens, global economic crisis starts Japan also imports nearly 100% of its oil and pays for it in dollars. That's a structural sell pressure against yen And yen already lost half the gains after US intervention happened 2 weeks ago It's not like every other crisis. This time you also have war in Iran, tech-race pressure from China, climbing oil prices and consumer sentiment worse than during peak depression The situation is seriously fucked up and it gets worse every single day I've already stacked over $1m in gold to buy the blood when it comes Many great companies are going to become literally free for a few months You got to have liquidity to take it If you don't: cut your spending in half, save as much as you can and just survive 99% of the population is not ready for what's coming

🇺🇸 🇯🇵 WARNING: YEN rate hike will trigger global economic crisis in September Yen shorts are at a nine-year high. Every single one of them is a potential forced buyer This is the death spiral: yen at 160, weakest in 40 years → BoJ hikes in September to defend it → the carry trade unwinds → to buy yen back, you have to sell what you bought with it, starting with US Treasuries (Japan is the largest foreign holder) → the 30Y is already at 5.26% (highest since 2007) and it goes higher into forced selling → US debt gets too expensive, the interest is already $1.25 trillion a year → the Fed has to choose between the bond market and inflation → it picks the bond market (because Trump forces Warsh to do it) and prints new dollars → middle class incomes get wiped, floating-rate debt and small business break first → consumption drops hard → tax revenue drops, deficit widens, global economic crisis starts Japan also imports nearly 100% of its oil and pays for it in dollars. That's a structural sell pressure against yen And yen already lost half the gains after US intervention happened 2 weeks ago It's not like every other crisis. This time you also have war in Iran, tech-race pressure from China, climbing oil prices and consumer sentiment worse than during peak depression The situation is seriously fucked up and it gets worse every single day I've already stacked over $1m in gold to buy the blood when it comes Many great companies are going to become literally free for a few months You got to have liquidity to take it If you don't: cut your spending in half, save as much as you can and just survive 99% of the population is not ready for what's coming

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Bailing Japan out isn't an act of altruism.... It's about survival. - Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. - A weaker yen raises import costs. - Higher import costs fuel inflation. - Higher inflation increases pressure on the BoJ to hike rates. That leaves the BoJ with two realistic options... neither is good for the US. 1. Sell UST to support the yen. 2. Raise interest rates. Option 1 pushes US yields higher by adding Treasury supply to the market. Option 2 risks blowing up the yen carry trade... which also puts upward pressure on US yields. By stepping in to support the yen through EUR sales, the US shifts part of that pressure onto Europe. And by making the intervention public, the message is clear: "You've seen us intervene in oil. Now we're willing to intervene in the yen." A new front in this war has just opened... A war against the yen short sellers.

Bailing Japan out isn't an act of altruism.... It's about survival. - Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. - A weaker yen raises import costs. - Higher import costs fuel inflation. - Higher inflation increases pressure on the BoJ to hike rates. That leaves the BoJ with two realistic options... neither is good for the US. 1. Sell UST to support the yen. 2. Raise interest rates. Option 1 pushes US yields higher by adding Treasury supply to the market. Option 2 risks blowing up the yen carry trade... which also puts upward pressure on US yields. By stepping in to support the yen through EUR sales, the US shifts part of that pressure onto Europe. And by making the intervention public, the message is clear: "You've seen us intervene in oil. Now we're willing to intervene in the yen." A new front in this war has just opened... A war against the yen short sellers.

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Qullamaggie on Learning How to Trade Is the Hardest Thing I Have Ever Done “Learning how to trade has been the hardest thing I’ve ever done. The thing about trading is that it always changes; the rules shift, and the game evolves. What worked a couple of weeks ago or a couple months ago may not work now. And what didn’t work a few weeks or a few months back may work in a few weeks or a few months. It’s not like more static games such as poker or chess. It’s the same thing over and over but like the rules change. That’s what makes it so trading so hard. You have to be very open to change, very adaptable.”

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THE BIGGEST NIGHTMARE FOR MARKETS IS BACK. The Bank of Japan is preparing faster interest rate hikes while actively intervening to strengthen the yen. This is the exact combination that triggered one of the biggest global market selloffs in 2024. In August 2024, after the BOJ hiked rates and intervened in the yen, the S&P 500 crashed more than 8% in just 3 trading days. History doesn't always repeat but this setup should have every investor paying attention.

THE BIGGEST NIGHTMARE FOR MARKETS IS BACK. The Bank of Japan is preparing faster interest rate hikes while actively intervening to strengthen the yen. This is the exact combination that triggered one of the biggest global market selloffs in 2024. In August 2024, after the BOJ hiked rates and intervened in the yen, the S&P 500 crashed more than 8% in just 3 trading days. History doesn't always repeat but this setup should have every investor paying attention.

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147,266 次观看 • 1 个月前

Iran has been a destabilizing force in the Middle East for 47 years. The US has Tehran's economy on the verge of collapse and the regime is running out of money. Even if it takes 3 more months to achieve change, the war will have been worth it, Rebeccah Heinrichs told Jake Tapper 🦅.

Iran has been a destabilizing force in the Middle East for 47 years. The US has Tehran's economy on the verge of collapse and the regime is running out of money. Even if it takes 3 more months to achieve change, the war will have been worth it, Rebeccah Heinrichs told Jake Tapper 🦅.

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105,879 次观看 • 4 个月前

The new trailer for ‘VENOM: THE LAST DANCE’ has been released. In theaters on October 25.

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My take on the US stock market bubble: "The elephant in the room is [the market in New York]. It is definitely in a bubble and has been so for some time. Bubble popping usually occurs when monetary policy tightens. But now the Fed is loosening." More w/ Anthony.

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39,160 次观看 • 8 个月前