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🎯 The 🎯 Master Way - As interpreted by AI 🌐 📺 Ep.003: Choosing the Right Level 💭 (quick editor's note: when it mentions "confluence with majors", that includes things like USDT.D, TOTAL1,2,3, ETH/BTC, ETH, BTC.D, etc. not just BTC)

14,663 просмотров • 1 год назад •via X (Twitter)

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BTC pushed above the TBO cloud over the weekend and is technically strong bullish in the short term, but Aaron’s core message today was still caution. Volume remains weak, the Slow line is still macro bearish, and RSI is putting in lower highs while price stalls just under 80K. Even with OBV still technically bullish, this move does not yet look strong enough to change the bigger bearish view. ETH looks even weaker than BTC here. It bounced, but it still has not cleanly cleared overhead resistance, RSI continues to trend lower, and volume plus OBV both look fragile. Aaron is still expecting a lower low on ETH, and that fits with the broader setup where BTC is holding up better than the rest of the market. The bigger macro warning signs are still in dominance and risk sentiment. BTC.D remains very strong, stablecoin dominance looks ready to push higher, and TOTALES plus OTHERS/BTC still look vulnerable to rejection. If stablecoin dominance rises while BTC.D stays firm, alts are likely to keep getting punished even if BTC itself only pulls back modestly. TradFi is also flashing risk-on excess while Aaron stays skeptical. DXY looks like it could bounce, USDJPY remains important after Japan intervention talk, GameStop pumping again is a sign of greed, and oil still looks strong while gold and silver stay mixed. On the watchlist, Aaron leaned bearish on names like XLM, NEAR, ICP, ARB, RENDER, DEXE, PENGU, MON, and AERO, while stronger charts like DOGE, HYPE, and MORPHO still look impressive but increasingly suspicious if momentum keeps fading. Chapters: 00:00 BTC above the cloud but still lacking conviction 03:10 ETH looks weaker than BTC 06:13 BTC dominance and stablecoin dominance warnings 10:42 TOTALES and OTHERS/BTC rejection risk 12:50 DXY, USDJPY, and stock market risk sentiment 16:57 Oil, gold, and silver check-in 18:56 TRX, ZEC, TAO, ONDO, and H 22:55 XLM, WLFI, NEAR, ICP, ARB, and ZRO 27:12 DEXE, PENGU, MON, and AERO 31:17 DOGE, HYPE, XMR, ALGO, MORPHO, and viewer picks 34:22 Final outlook for May and June

Aaron Dishner

13,263 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🚨EVERYONE THINKS ETHEREUM IS DEAD That's exactly why I'm paying attention The market is treating $ETH like it's just another altcoin It isn't Ethereum has already fallen almost 70% from its all-time high, while Bitcoin has held up much better That underperformance is exactly why the narrative has become so one-sided "ETH is dead" "The cycle is over" "Just buy BTC" I've heard this before The easiest way to see what's happening is the ETH/BTC chart The ratio has been crushed for years and is sitting near levels we haven't seen in a long time After months of underperformance, people stopped comparing Ethereum to Bitcoin and started comparing it to every failing altcoin That's the mistake $BTC and $ETH are still the only two crypto assets with more than a decade of history, no insider unlocks, no VC emissions and real institutional adoption The difference is that their economics are no longer the same Around a third of all $ETH is staked, earning native yield while remaining locked inside the network Bitcoin doesn't do that New $BTC is still issued every day, and miners regularly sell part of it to cover electricity, hardware and operating costs Then look at the corporate treasuries Companies holding Bitcoin own an asset that doesn't generate cash flow on its own Companies building Ethereum treasuries can stake their $ETH and earn yield while they wait It's the difference between holding an asset... And holding an asset that pays you to stay patient That's why I think the market is pricing Ethereum like a broken asset while ignoring how much its structure has changed over the last few years Could ETH still go lower? Of course. Markets always overshoot. That's why my interest starts between $1,400 and $1,050 Not because I know the exact bottom, but because that's where the risk/reward finally becomes asymmetric Last cycle everyone was calling for $10,000 $ETH It never happened This cycle everyone is calling Ethereum dead Markets have a funny habit of disappointing the majority I'm not bearish on both I just think the asset everyone has already given up on often becomes the one that surprises the most That's why I'm buying fear instead of chasing strength Maybe I'm early But I'd rather accumulate when everyone hates Ethereum than fight the crowd after it starts making new highs again Follow and turn notifications on Next few months could completely change the narrative

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27,548 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад