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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The most effective strategy currently available to the administration would be to simply walk away from a deal that isn't working. A blockade is currently in place that is causing significant damage and creating new adversaries for the U.S. globally. Professor Steve Hanke points out that the "madman...

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Mario Nawfal

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท INSULATION VS. GLOBAL DEPENDENCE Professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Steve Hanke, notes the U.S. is more insulated from damage as a top supplier of oil and helium. Professor Steve Hanke observes that American allies in Europe and Asia will suffer most from their dependence on the Strait. Hanke points out that India and Taiwan face massive hits to their fertilizer and chip-making industries. While the U.S. may benefit from energy exports, the overall global economic picture remains complicated and volatile. Steve Hanke

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท THE ENDGAME: WINGING IT TOWARD CRISIS Professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Steve Hanke, argues that the current administration lacks a clear plan and is essentially "winging it." Steve Hanke describes this as a crisis of epic proportions, worse than the oil shocks of the 1970s. Professor Hanke notes that even the intelligence community warned that these current strategies would not work. Professor Steve Hanke fears that without a rationale, the U.S. is simply escalating into a worse situation. Steve Hanke
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท THE ENDGAME: WINGING IT TOWARD CRISIS Professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Steve Hanke, argues that the current administration lacks a clear plan and is essentially "winging it." Steve Hanke describes this as a crisis of epic proportions, worse than the oil shocks of the 1970s. Professor Hanke notes that even the intelligence community warned that these current strategies would not work. Professor Steve Hanke fears that without a rationale, the U.S. is simply escalating into a worse situation. Steve Hanke

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท THE BIG WINNER: RUSSIAโ€™S ADVANTAGE Professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Steve Hanke, points out that Russia is the clear economic winner of the current conflict. Steve Hanke explains that Russia benefits from higher prices and has every reason to want the war elongated. Professor Hanke warns that a month of closed straits and boots on the ground signals a global financial crisis. Iran is also benefiting economically by exporting more oil at higher prices than before the war. Steve Hanke
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท THE BIG WINNER: RUSSIAโ€™S ADVANTAGE Professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Steve Hanke, points out that Russia is the clear economic winner of the current conflict. Steve Hanke explains that Russia benefits from higher prices and has every reason to want the war elongated. Professor Hanke warns that a month of closed straits and boots on the ground signals a global financial crisis. Iran is also benefiting economically by exporting more oil at higher prices than before the war. Steve Hanke

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท MARKET REALITY: THE SPOT PRICE EXPLOSION Professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Steve Hanke, warns that a Houthi closure of the Suez Canal would make a bad situation much worse. Steve Hanke notes the physical shortage of oil is driving spot market prices much higher than futures. Professor Hanke expects the paper market to be "mugged by reality" as it rushes to match physical prices. As a veteran trader, Professor Steve Hanke advises that things are destined to get worse before they get better. Steve Hanke
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท MARKET REALITY: THE SPOT PRICE EXPLOSION Professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Steve Hanke, warns that a Houthi closure of the Suez Canal would make a bad situation much worse. Steve Hanke notes the physical shortage of oil is driving spot market prices much higher than futures. Professor Hanke expects the paper market to be "mugged by reality" as it rushes to match physical prices. As a veteran trader, Professor Steve Hanke advises that things are destined to get worse before they get better. Steve Hanke

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท BEYOND OIL: THE HELIUM AND FERTILIZER THREAT Professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Steve Hanke, highlights that 30-33% of the worldโ€™s helium supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. He explains that these critical supplies power the global microchip and AI industries. Hanke points out that damaging regional infrastructure creates a gap that cannot be easily switched back on. The physical removal of these objects from the supply chain creates long-term damage regardless of when the war ends. Steve Hanke
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท BEYOND OIL: THE HELIUM AND FERTILIZER THREAT Professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Steve Hanke, highlights that 30-33% of the worldโ€™s helium supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. He explains that these critical supplies power the global microchip and AI industries. Hanke points out that damaging regional infrastructure creates a gap that cannot be easily switched back on. The physical removal of these objects from the supply chain creates long-term damage regardless of when the war ends. Steve Hanke

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Qatar secretly promised Iran it would choke LNG exports to spike prices and pressure the U.S., just to keep its gas fields intact. Professor Steve Hanke laid out exactly what that means for American power in the region. "The U.S. comes out as a very unreliable gas bag and no partners or unreliable partners." Every Gulf state is now hedging, and the U.S. has no one to blame but itself. Steve Hanke
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท THE CONSUMER PAIN: TARIFFS AND WAR Professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Steve Hanke, describes a "one-two punch" of Trumpโ€™s tariffs and rising war costs hitting consumers. Steve Hanke reports that February import prices have already surged far beyond consensus forecasts. Professor Hanke argues that protectionism, militarism, and interventionism are all negative for economic growth. The pipeline of inflation is already full, and Professor Steve Hanke warns that more pain is coming for the American public. Steve Hanke
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท THE CONSUMER PAIN: TARIFFS AND WAR Professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Steve Hanke, describes a "one-two punch" of Trumpโ€™s tariffs and rising war costs hitting consumers. Steve Hanke reports that February import prices have already surged far beyond consensus forecasts. Professor Hanke argues that protectionism, militarism, and interventionism are all negative for economic growth. The pipeline of inflation is already full, and Professor Steve Hanke warns that more pain is coming for the American public. Steve Hanke

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ณProfessor Steve Hanke warns that a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global humanitarian catastrophe. The UN has already signaled that millions of people could face famine if trade remains restricted for just a few more weeks. China is currently mitigating the crisis by tapping into its massive oil inventories to support neighboring Asian economies. "China is lending a helping hand in a way and using some of their excess inventories to mitigate the pain that's occurring in some of their neighboring countries in Asia." The global economy is currently on a countdown toward total exhaustion.
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ณProfessor Steve Hanke warns that a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global humanitarian catastrophe. The UN has already signaled that millions of people could face famine if trade remains restricted for just a few more weeks. China is currently mitigating the crisis by tapping into its massive oil inventories to support neighboring Asian economies. "China is lending a helping hand in a way and using some of their excess inventories to mitigate the pain that's occurring in some of their neighboring countries in Asia." The global economy is currently on a countdown toward total exhaustion.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท One-third of the normal ship traffic is moving through the Strait of Hormuz right now, and prices are barely reacting. Professor Steve Hanke calls it anomalous, and says the math simply doesn't add up. "If inventories are low, which they are now, we know that that's something we know. You find the price structure should be one in which you observe spot prices above futures prices by a considerable level." The market is pricing in a world that doesn't exist yet. Steve Hanke
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท One-third of the normal ship traffic is moving through the Strait of Hormuz right now, and prices are barely reacting. Professor Steve Hanke calls it anomalous, and says the math simply doesn't add up. "If inventories are low, which they are now, we know that that's something we know. You find the price structure should be one in which you observe spot prices above futures prices by a considerable level." The market is pricing in a world that doesn't exist yet. Steve Hanke

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท If the war continues, the global economy faces a level of disruption that far exceeds what has been felt in the first 40 days. We are seeing shortages in everything from aluminum to helium, with the cost of the war being imposed on the public through skyrocketing prices. Professor Steve Hanke argues that the administration has failed to tally the actual benefits and costs, ignoring the external economic impact of the conflict. Bogging down in a long-term war will only lead to more rationing, emptied petrol stations, and a permanent shift in the regional balance of power. Steve Hanke
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท If the war continues, the global economy faces a level of disruption that far exceeds what has been felt in the first 40 days. We are seeing shortages in everything from aluminum to helium, with the cost of the war being imposed on the public through skyrocketing prices. Professor Steve Hanke argues that the administration has failed to tally the actual benefits and costs, ignoring the external economic impact of the conflict. Bogging down in a long-term war will only lead to more rationing, emptied petrol stations, and a permanent shift in the regional balance of power. Steve Hanke

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท THE GLOBAL OIL CRISIS: REALITY VS. RHETORIC Professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Steve Hanke, warns we are facing a catastrophic oil crisis potentially larger than 1973. Hanke says the U.S. economy is growing at a normal 2.2-2.3%, not the hyped levels claimed by Washington. He stresses the need to ignore political spin and focus on the grim economic reality. The global repercussions of this war are already hitting the international economy hard. Steve Hanke
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท THE GLOBAL OIL CRISIS: REALITY VS. RHETORIC Professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Steve Hanke, warns we are facing a catastrophic oil crisis potentially larger than 1973. Hanke says the U.S. economy is growing at a normal 2.2-2.3%, not the hyped levels claimed by Washington. He stresses the need to ignore political spin and focus on the grim economic reality. The global repercussions of this war are already hitting the international economy hard. Steve Hanke

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท A retired U.S. Navy admiral says the U.S. should clear sea mines and secure the Strait of Hormuz. โ€œIf we donโ€™t do this, the message to the world is that Iran controls that strait.โ€ A chokepoint the world depends on.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท A retired U.S. Navy admiral says the U.S. should clear sea mines and secure the Strait of Hormuz. โ€œIf we donโ€™t do this, the message to the world is that Iran controls that strait.โ€ A chokepoint the world depends on.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Professor Steve Hanke argues that the war shows Americaโ€™s ability to enforce sanctions on the world is starting to come undone. In Steveโ€™s view, sanctions are unambiguously negative and have historically failed to achieve their stated political goals. โ€œThe communist country is becoming an advocate of free trade and commerce. I think China has gained tremendously, and the power shift toward BRICS is very significant. The pivot is away from the United States.โ€ Steve Hanke
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Professor Steve Hanke argues that the war shows Americaโ€™s ability to enforce sanctions on the world is starting to come undone. In Steveโ€™s view, sanctions are unambiguously negative and have historically failed to achieve their stated political goals. โ€œThe communist country is becoming an advocate of free trade and commerce. I think China has gained tremendously, and the power shift toward BRICS is very significant. The pivot is away from the United States.โ€ Steve Hanke

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ The state of the economy is currently worse than during previous assessments, primarily due to the unaccounted costs of the ongoing conflict. When the Office of Management and Budget was asked for the bottom-line cost of the war with Iran, the director admitted they had no idea. Professor Steve Hanke observes that while a 60-day ceasefire period is technically in place, the probability of sabotage remains high due to regional spoilers. Until there is a signed and delivered agreement, the markets remain in a state of reaction to an increasingly incoherent diplomatic reality. Steve Hanke
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Interest expenses on the debt have already surpassed the entire U.S. defense budget, a traditional indicator of an empire in terminal trouble. Professor Steve Hanke warns that the U.S. is facing a historic "regime uncertainty" as the national debt becomes fundamentally unsustainable. He's calling for a constitutional convention to implement a debt break and prevent a permanent economic flatline. "This will go down in history, by the way, as a major pockmark on Trump's presidency." The economic fundamentals of the United States are currently in a state of freefall.
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Interest expenses on the debt have already surpassed the entire U.S. defense budget, a traditional indicator of an empire in terminal trouble. Professor Steve Hanke warns that the U.S. is facing a historic "regime uncertainty" as the national debt becomes fundamentally unsustainable. He's calling for a constitutional convention to implement a debt break and prevent a permanent economic flatline. "This will go down in history, by the way, as a major pockmark on Trump's presidency." The economic fundamentals of the United States are currently in a state of freefall.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The failure to receive basic advice on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz suggests a breakdown in the administration's decision-making process. Key advisors have described the presentations regarding regime change working in just a few days as completely farcical and inaccurate. Professor Steve Hanke notes that being an effective advisor requires giving a clear red or green light, rather than remaining silent on critical issues. When the leadership relies on flawed intelligence rather than strategic reality, the result is often a series of "stupid decisions" with global consequences. Steve Hanke
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The failure to receive basic advice on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz suggests a breakdown in the administration's decision-making process. Key advisors have described the presentations regarding regime change working in just a few days as completely farcical and inaccurate. Professor Steve Hanke notes that being an effective advisor requires giving a clear red or green light, rather than remaining silent on critical issues. When the leadership relies on flawed intelligence rather than strategic reality, the result is often a series of "stupid decisions" with global consequences. Steve Hanke

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Hidden clauses buried in hundreds of pages, spotted by one congressman, and now the man who pushed them is out of office. Professor Steve Hanke says that is exactly how the Israel lobby operates. "The lobby gets it in. But what did the lobby do to Massie? He's out." If oil spikes this August, Republicans may not survive November. Steve Hanke
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท A month of bombing, a stockpile of expensive weapons burned through, and the U.S. ends up worse off than when it started. Steve Hanke just laid it all out. "The U.S. will be witnessing and signing on the line a major strategic defeat in which a large percentage of their stockpile of very expensive weapons has been used up." Washington will spin it as a win. The map tells a different story. Steve Hanke
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The crude market sits in backwardation 5% of the time. It has not flipped back. Professor Steve Hanke breaks down what the forward curve is actually telling us about global supply. "If a market is in backwardation, that means that inventories are very scarce and people are trying to borrow from the future and resupply shorts of short inventories." The market started this nearly flat. Something changed it. It hasn't changed back. Steve Hanke
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทProfessor Steve Hanke reveals that the Iranian regime has hundreds of millions of barrels of oil currently floating in tankers ready to flood the market. Tehran is considering a "wild card" strategy of launching a massive fleet of cargo ships simultaneously to overwhelm U.S. interception capabilities. Even under heavy sanctions, Iran continues to supply nearly two million barrels of oil daily to small independent refineries in China. "The Iranians, given the regime... can sustain this for quite a while." Iran is prepared to wait out the West in a battle of economic endurance.
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