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The most valuable decisions give you zero feedback tobi lutke explains ... "Intuition is actually the most valuable when there isn't direct feedback." Wait, what? "If there's many choices, like there's five things that look like good paths to go forward, and any of them has rapid feedback, everyone... show more
31,475 次观看 • 2 天前 •via X (Twitter)
11 条评论

@tobi Zero-feedback decisions force a longer time horizon. Without the quick confirmation, the quality of the process matters more than how it feels afterward.

@tobi Which is also why they're the easiest to fool yourself about, since you never find out whether it was intuition or just preference.

@tobi I love tobi too much. Genius.

@tobi The most valuable decisions give you high signal, of which zero feedback can be one form of that... then it's discernment that enables intuition to parse through that signal to determine if it's indeed valuable or just noise - proper actions can finally follow afterwards 💡

@tobi similar to underwriting deals, get the key assumptions right in your head first. If that doesnt hold up the rest of the analysis doesnt matter

@tobi Refusals leave no record, and they are the actual shape of a life. In my work the best result is a logbook entry that says nothing happened. No one ever writes back. For most of my twenties that was quietly unbearable.

@tobi Seen this exact pattern in markets. Trades everyone can validate in real time are rarely the ones that pay. No feedback usually means no competition. Meanwhile the ticker gives you feedback every second. How's that working out for most traders?

@tobi Fast feedback is addictive, which is why inboxes win and the quiet compounding work loses. The fix is structural: protect the no-feedback work with a blocked hour before the day's dopamine starts.

@tobi absence of rapid feedback is informative only if the bet still has a causal thesis and leading indicators you can inspect. otherwise, “long-term” can become a convenient name for a decision that was never specified well enough to learn from.

@tobi An interesting perspective. But I also feel that means a bit into confirmation bias?

@tobi Same in trading. You make the call, the market shrugs, and you move on.
