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The next iPhone will cost more, and the reason has almost nothing to do with Apple. The chip that stores your photos cost Apple about 13 dollars last year. This year it runs around 51. Multiply that across every phone, laptop, and console on earth, and you are looking...

58,900 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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Elon Musk gave the entire entertainment industry its expiration date, and he is the one building the thing that kills it. Musk: “My guess is that we see the first compelling half hour, pure AI show next year.” Next year. A complete show generated entirely by AI. No writers. No actors. No cameras. No sets. No crew. No studio. Just a prompt and enough compute to render a reality that never physically existed. And shows are the easy part. Musk: “I say probably we’re maybe three years away from AI does the whole video game.” A show plays the same way every time. A game has to generate a living world that reacts to every decision in real time across every single frame. That is a fundamentally harder class of problem. And Musk put three years on it. Right now a single AAA title takes seven years and half a billion dollars across thousands of engineers and artists just to ship it. Musk is describing a world where one person types a paragraph and gets something comparable. The entire value proposition of a multi-billion dollar industry lives inside that gap. And it closes in thirty-six months. But the prediction is not the story. The person making it is. This is not an analyst speculating from the sidelines. This is the man building the largest AI compute clusters on the planet. The man who built xAI from zero in under two years. The man stacking hundreds of thousands of GPUs into facilities designed to do exactly what he is describing. When Musk says three years, he is not guessing about what someone else might eventually ship. He is reading you a delivery date off his own roadmap. Every media company on Earth is valued on a single assumption. That quality content is expensive and difficult to produce at scale. That one assumption is the structural foundation underneath every studio, every network, and every publisher in existence. Musk is dismantling it with raw compute. The studios still parading thousand-person production teams are not demonstrating strength. They are advertising the exact cost structure that one person with a prompt and a GPU allocation is about to make irrelevant. And it does not stop at entertainment. If AI can generate an interactive world that responds to human input in real time, it can generate anything. Advertising. Architecture. Training simulations. Product design. Every industry built on humans manually constructing visual experiences frame by frame is sitting on the same countdown Musk just read out loud. Now zoom out. Because this is not just an industry story. For the entire history of human civilization, the distance between imagining a world and actually creating one required thousands of people, millions of hours, and billions of dollars. That distance built Hollywood. That distance built the gaming industry. That distance made content scarce and studios powerful. Musk is collapsing that distance to zero. When the gap between imagining something and it existing disappears, every business model built on the difficulty of creation disappears with it. That is not disruption. That is a full inversion of how human beings create. Musk did not make a casual prediction on that podcast. He told you what he is building. He told you the timeline. And he told you which industries do not survive it. The entertainment industry is still debating whether this future is real. Musk is not part of that debate. He is building. And he just told you the delivery date.

Dustin

22,390 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🇺🇸 DALLAS IS ABOUT TO BECOME THE CAPITAL OF THE AMERICA FIRST MOVEMENT! For the first time in party history, Republicans are holding a midterm convention. Not a debate stage. Not a press conference. A full blown convention, September 9th and 10th, right in the heart of Dallas. The Democrats aren't ready for this! Trump called it exactly what it is. "It has never been done before, and will be a truly Historic Event." Think about that for a second. Presidential conventions happen every four years like clockwork. Midterm conventions do not happen at all, because most parties do not have anything worth celebrating in the off year. The GOP just decided they do. RNC Chairman Joe Gruters is already calling it Trumpapalooza. That is not a typo. That is the energy level we are talking about. This is not just a rally. It is a two day showcase of the Great American Comeback. No tax on tips. No tax on overtime. Falling oil prices while the administration denuclearizes Iran. A border that finally has a lock on the door. Trump is not asking Republicans to imagine the wins. He is putting them on a stage in Texas and pointing at them. And Texas is not a random choice. It is the epicenter of this year's fight for Congress, with Ken Paxton battling for Senate and multiple House seats hanging in the balance. Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson called it exactly right, an event that will "energize our party, strengthen the conservative movement, and help build momentum." Now look across the aisle. Democrats floated the idea of their own midterm gathering. Then they quietly shelved it. No unifying message. No standout headliner. No comeback story to tell voters, because they do not have one. That is the difference in one sentence. Republicans are throwing a party because they have something to celebrate. Democrats are staying home because they do not. Midterms usually punish the party in power. Trump just decided to rewrite that rule in Texas, in front of the cameras, with the whole country watching. Buckle up. Trumpapalooza is coming, and the other side has nothing on the calendar to answer it with.

Bill Mitchell

13,708 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Why is the market selling off today? (Save this). The semi selloff right now is being driven by a mix of macro fear, profit taking and investors questioning how quickly all of this AI spending will actually pay off, not because demand for AI infrastructure suddenly disappeared. The market is basically trading this chain reaction, the ongoing US Iran escalation pushes oil higher, higher oil keeps inflation elevated, sticky inflation keeps Treasury yields high and that increases the risk of the Fed staying hawkish or even hiking again. That is a terrible setup for semis because many of these companies are valued on the massive earnings investors expect them to generate years from now. When yields rise, those future earnings become worth less today which is why the highest multiple AI and semiconductor names usually get hit first. (I don't think there will be a hike this year). This is also why everything is moving together right now. Nvidia, Micron, Nebius, SanDisk, Broadcom and Applied Optoelectronics are all completely different businesses, but institutions are not separating memory, networking, optics, compute and cloud infrastructure at the moment. They are reducing exposure to the entire AI trade, taking profits in the names that have already run the most and moving into a more defensive position potentially ahead of the Fed. There is also growing pressure around hyperscaler capex. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google are still spending enormous amounts on GPUs, data centers, networking and power but the market is starting to ask when all of that spending will actually turn into revenue and free cash flow. Investors are no longer satisfied with hearing that AI capex is growing. They want proof that the returns are arriving fast enough to justify the valuations already priced into the entire AI ecosystem. That creates a weird situation where hyperscaler capex can continue rising while semiconductor stocks still fall. The market is not asking whether AI spending is growing anymore but rather asking whether it is growing fast enough to beat the expectations already baked into these stocks. Crowded positioning is another major factor. Semis and AI infrastructure stocks have been some of the biggest winners in the market so institutions are sitting on huge profits and many funds own the exact same names. When macro risk increases, investors usually sell the most liquid winners first. That does not mean demand for memory, optics or custom chips suddenly collapsed but rather means investors are locking in gains and reducing risk. Tariffs add another layer because even when they are not directly placed on chips, they can still raise the cost of servers, electrical equipment, cooling systems, construction materials and the overall data center buildout. That makes AI infrastructure more expensive while also adding another source of inflation. Then you have Jensen Huang’s letter to the White House this morning about open weight AI models, which I think is one of the most important long term developments here. Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Palantir and several other companies are pushing Washington not to place broad restrictions on open weight AI. OpenAI and Anthropic were notably absent because open models are much more of a threat to their business models. OpenAI and Anthropic benefit from a world where a few closed frontier labs control the best models and companies have to pay them through subscriptions and APIs. Open weight models weaken that advantage because businesses can download a model, customize it for their own use and run it on their own infrastructure or through a neocloud. That is bad for OpenAI and Anthropic because it puts pressure on pricing, margins and the idea that they will control the intelligence layer of the economy but it is very good for the AI ecosystem as a whole over the long run. But the question is what does this mean for all the OpenAI and Anthropic commitments? so that's adding to the fear as well. But with that being said open models make AI cheaper and more accessible. Instead of AI being controlled by a few giant labs, thousands of startups, universities, governments and regular businesses can deploy models themselves. That spreads AI adoption across the entire economy and creates a much larger infrastructure opportunity and that is exactly why Jensen cares. Nvidia does not need OpenAI or Anthropic to win. Nvidia just needs more people using AI. Whether the model comes from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Mistral, Kimi or some startup nobody has heard of yet, it still needs GPUs, memory, networking, data centers and electricity. So open weight AI could actually weaken the model companies while making the infrastructure layer much bigger. More open models mean more companies running inference. More inference means more GPUs. More GPUs mean more HBM, optical transceivers, switches, data centers and power. That is bullish for Nvidia Nebius, Micron, Broadcom , Marvell and Applied Optoelectronics over the long run. So my take is that the current semi selloff is being driven mostly by macro uncertainty, higher oil, rising yields, Fed fears, tariffs, crowded positioning and questions around the return on hyperscaler capex. The underlying AI infrastructure thesis has not suddenly broken. We are not broadly seeing hyperscalers cancel GPU orders, slash capex, abandon data center projects or report that AI demand has collapsed. What has changed is the valuation investors are willing to pay while the macro environment remains unstable. The market is lowering the price it is willing to pay for semiconductor growth but is not necessarily saying that growth is gone. And while Jensen’s open weight push may be bad for OpenAI and Anthropic, it could be one of the best things possible for the AI ecosystem over the long run because it creates more models, more developers, more competition and ultimately much more demand for the infrastructure underneath all of it. Nothing about the AI thesis has changed for me, so I will be going shopping and taking advantage of this sale while the market is selling everything together. I am an analyst at Milk Road Pro, and if you want to see exactly what I am buying, you can join for just $1 using the link below.

Melvin

179,939 просмотров • 21 дней назад

Jeff Bezos just told you exactly how to price AI. Nobody listened. Bezos: “AI is real and it is going to change every industry. In fact it’s a very unusual technology in that regard in that it’s a horizontal enabling layer.” Horizontal enabling layer. Three words that reprice the entire technology sector. The iPhone was a vertical. One product. One new market. Electricity was a horizontal. One substrate that rewired every market on Earth. Wall Street is pricing AI like it is the next iPhone. Bezos is telling you it is the next electrical grid. Right now, thousands of companies are trying to sell AI as a product. A feature. A tool. A subscription tier. Every single one of them will be priced to zero. You do not sell a horizontal layer. You do not compete with it. You build on top of it or you disappear beneath it. For a century, entire industries survived on one thing. Complexity. The friction of navigating law, medicine, logistics, finance. That was the moat. If you could not memorize the maze, you could not compete. A horizontal layer does not navigate the maze. It dissolves the walls. Electricity did not compete with the candle industry. It erased the need for one. The most dangerous part of a horizontal shift is how quiet it is. It moves underneath the economy. The surface looks normal. Revenue still holds. Every day you operate on the old substrate, you accumulate a debt you cannot see and cannot repay. The internet repriced distribution. AI is repricing cognition itself. When intelligence becomes a utility that runs through the walls of every company on Earth, the premium on human expertise does not erode. It evaporates. This is not a disruption. Disruptions replace products. This replaces the ground you are standing on.

Dustin

540,966 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

The legitimacy of the case against the Islamic republic is first and foremost rooted in the demands of the Iranian people inside Iran, who have repeatedly risen up, most recently in the millions, to demand an end to this regime. In this movement, there has been only one name they have called for, and only one transitional leadership the Iranian people have fought for: Reza Pahlavi. Now that doesn’t mean every Iranian is a monarchist, and it doesn’t mean “restoring monarchy” either. If fact, Pahlavi himself has called for a transition to democracy and has only ever called for a transition leadership. Many people are calling for Pahlavi today who did not support the Shah in the past. The world is still talking over them. Instead of listening to the Iranian people, the international media and multiple governments around the world have consistently proposed plan after plan, actively ignoring the will of the Iranian people. They have minimized and in some cases even mocked the Crown Prince, when he and he alone has the ear of the people on the ground. There have been well funded and coordinated efforts against the Crown Prince attempting to cast doubt on his popularity with the Iranian public and to spread rumors that anyone who supports him as a traditional leader is “restoring monarchy”. He has been accused of all sorts of absurdities from being an “Israeli agent” to being asked to answer for political decisions of his father that have nothing to do with him and still he has maintained the respect and support of the Iranian people. This is a cataclysmic mistake on the part of the West. Iran is not Afghanistan or Venezuela. You will never have a successful foreign imposed leader like the terrorist Ghalibaf when the people are calling for something else entirely. How many times must the West repeat the same mistakes over and over against expecting different results?

Emily Schrader - אמילי שריידר امیلی شریدر

19,647 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🚨 WARNING: CHINA'S BIGGEST COLLAPSE IS STARTING. China’s real estate market just crashed to a 20-year low. About 25% of the market is already gone. And this collapse is NOT over. If you think this is just another China headline YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG. This is NOT just about apartments. This is about one of the biggest engines of Chinese growth staying broken for years. While household wealth, confidence, and demand keep getting hit at the same time. That one fact explains a lot. Because property crashes do NOT stay inside property. - They hit spending. - They hit credit. - They hit local government finances. And then they hit the whole economy. Now look at how deep this already is. New home prices fell 3.2% year over year in February. 53 out of 70 cities were still falling month over month. Property investment has now declined for four straight years. And in December 2025, that drop reached a record 17.2%. That is NOT a market that is stabilizing. That is a market still breaking. And it gets worse. Home prices are expected to fall another 4% in 2026. The downturn is now expected to run into 2027. Even after a 40% national property price fall from 2021 to 2025, the system is still under pressure. Now connect the dots. When a housing market this big keeps falling, the damage does NOT stay local. - China’s households get poorer. - Consumption gets weaker. - Developers stay trapped. - Local governments lose land-sale revenue. And global markets get another reminder that one of the biggest growth engines in the world is still in deep trouble. This is NOT a small problem. This is a REAL slow-motion collapse that keeps feeding into growth, confidence, and risk. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

58,308 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

There is a marble quarry in the Italian Alps that has been working since 1387, but in 639 years it has had only one customer... The quarry is at Candoglia, at the mouth of the Ossola valley. On 24 October 1387, Gian Galeazzo Visconti decided that the cathedral going up in his city should be built of marble rather than brick, and handed the quarry over to the Veneranda Fabbrica del Duomo, the body established to build it. He also granted the stone free passage down the waterways to Milan. The blocks went by raft from the river Toce into Lake Maggiore, down the Ticino, along the Naviglio Grande, then through a system of locks into a small lake in the centre of the city, a few hundred metres from the site. The bargemen carried the letters AUF, for "ad usum fabricae", for the use of the works, which cleared the cargo through customs without charge. People in Lombardy still say "a ufo" for something got for nothing, and the phrase is traditionally traced back to those barges... Mark Twain came in 1867 and noticed something most visitors walk past: "We saw a new statue put in its niche yesterday alongside of one which had been standing these four hundred years." It has never stopped: around a thousand tonnes of Candoglia marble still comes out of the mountain every year, and all of it goes to the same building. In a workshop in the Certosa district, sculptors cut replacements for whatever the weather has eaten away, from the same stone, for the same institution, founded in 1387. The cathedral was declared finished in 1965 but the quarry never stopped, because a cathedral like this is not something you complete... it is inherited, kept, and handed on. As John Ruskin wrote in The Seven Lamps of Architecture: "When we build, let us think that we build forever. Let it not be for present delight, nor for present use alone; let it be such work as our descendants will thank us for; and let us think, as we lay stone on stone, that a time is to come when those stones will be held sacred because our hands have touched them, and that men will say, as they look upon the labour and wrought substance of them: ‘See! This our fathers did for us.’"

James Lucas

98,321 просмотров • 18 дней назад