The Rate Hikes Are Coming...

Does warsh have the cohones?

At this point a pause is dovish. Now we have President threatening an embargo if the Fed doesn't cut... Gonna be a wild September.

Nop they're not

rates going up again?? same story every quarter and the market keeps climbing anyway. @LMexx1 called it weeks ago, nobody listened lol

Worth remembering the whole developed world isn't easing — New Zealand just hiked for a second straight meeting. If the US ends up the outlier cutting into a 162k print and 4.1% unemployment, that's a dollar-negative, gold-positive setup regardless of what the Fed calls it.

You think so?

Doubt it

No they are not

Nope

Pricing a hike is easy. Holding the long end when the path steepens is the hard part.

The rate conversation has flipped fast. Stronger labor data is putting hikes back on the table and forcing markets to rethink the path ahead.

The useful question isn’t “will they hike.” It’s which sleeve survives both a hike and a hold. Long-duration growth doesn’t. Short bonds, energy and cash do. If the book only works on one path, you’re making a rate call with equity beta.

The tell isn't the hikes — it's that nobody's hedging them. Polymarket has 72% odds of a 2026 hike, 93% of no cut, 10Y at 4.78%... yet VIX sits at 14.5 with 21 large caps coiled in the 45-55 RSI band. Complacency is the trade that breaks first.

Jobs +162K vs +55K, 10Y at its highest weekly close since Oct 2023, and the White House threatening to stop trading with deficit countries unless rates come down. A Fed hiking into a president demanding cuts is a setup nobody has a playbook for. Gold at $4,436 has one. 🦇

Zero chance

You seem to be under the impression that something stops this train

The market is pricing a different Fed than the one that cut into sticky inflation. Yields already voted with their feet.

Markets price the path, not the headline. Discipline is ignoring the noise between the data points.

Bessent already told Warsh: You are not raising rates M’F’er. The USA has an interest expense problem. You raise rates and the problem gets worse. The front end cannot absorb a hike, A$$hole! Jump to 27:45

Hikes make my 3% look better and my house feel smaller. Two toddlers do not care about rates.

THEY ARE NOT COMING

Hike language usually hits the front-end first and growth second. Useful tell is whether the curve keeps flattening or steepens at the long end. That is positioning, not thesis. #Nasdaq #Bitcoin

30-year Treasury pays 5.19% and the interest is state tax free. A bank CD can't do that.

Huge error if they do

Traders are leaning the same way. Polymarket puts the chance of no Fed hike this year at just 28.5%.

markets really gotta adjust rn

UBS just flipped their Fed call to hikes in Sept and Dec this morning. 'Higher for longer' is quietly turning into 'higher, full stop.'

There is no reason for a hike. This inflation is mainly due to an oil supply shock, a hike solves nothing. Next move by Fed is a cut in 2027.