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The Strauss-Howe generational theory describes a recurrent cycle of same-aged groups with specific behavior patterns that change every 20 years. This is a visual representation of the concepts in 1997 book 'The Fourth Turning'. [📹 Van Neistat]

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McCullough: Embrace Uncertainty—The Key to Investing in the 'Fourth Turning' 🌎 In this exclusive clip from Hedgeye’s Q1 2025 Mid-Quarter Macro Themes Update, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough answers a critical question from an institutional client: 🔊 How should investors navigate the uncertainty of the Fourth Turning? The Fourth Turning is a historical theory developed by Hedgeye Demography analyst Neil Howe Neil Howe and his late partner William Strauss. It suggests that history moves in cycles of four generational eras, or “turnings,” with the Fourth Turning being a period of crisis—marked by upheaval, conflict, and transformative change. These moments often reshape society through war, revolution, or economic and political realignment. McCullough delivers a blunt reality check: anyone claiming to have a precise, certain answer for investing in this environment is likely full of $#!t. Instead of chasing false certainty, he argues, investors should embrace uncertainty and adapt to the evolving landscape. In volatile times, flexibility and an open mind aren’t just advantages—they’re necessities. "Why would I act on anything other than what the market is doing? Yes, the Fourth Turning is a thing. Yes, it just happened in the U.S. election. It happened in Argentina. It's going to happen in other countries. Is it going to create volatility? The answer is very clear: I don't know. And if you think you know I'm probably going to do better risk managing it. Some of the most thoughtful questions just don't have answers. I think the future is going to be much more Gen X types or a generation younger than me that uses math and rules-based processes because that's where the world's already gone. We're not going to use some crusty old bureaucrat from the Old Wall to tell me where inflation is going next." * * * * * Keith McCullough’s new, 52-page eBook "Master The Market" distills the investing process he’s honed over decades on Wall Street. Get the insights, risk management tools, and market strategies you need to navigate today’s volatility—download it for FREE now:

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