The Tampa Bay Rays' newest analytical strategy is breaking Baseball again

I would also add their games are a lot of fun to watch. Stealing bases, bunts, base hits left and right. Fun!

Small ball never should’ve died. Too many SO’s is killing the game.

You mean the Rays value actual hitting? They hate strikeouts? They protect the plate and shorten their swing with two strikes? They just try to get on base and get on base? 150 years of baseball common sense has come back around again. And stat nerds STILL try to take credit.

Cleveland’s been doing this the last 5 years, but it was called disgusting baseball 🤦🏽‍♂️

Aka put the ball in play and even the best players in the world struggle to make plays all the time. Striking out only makes the umpire tired

The underlying thesis of Moneyball was always just identifying the skills/tools that are undervalued by the game's orthodoxy (and therefore available without a premium) and then using your limited resources to capitalize. The Rays do this every 10 years. It rocks.

You got yourself a follow. This was a fantastic breakdown and you spoke like a real person speaks.

It helps they have a .306 BABIP as a team and are 9-1 in one run games, both are unsustainable.

They are putting the ball in play? Wow color me shocked, Cleveland does this shit too

@BaseballDoesnt They're exposing how defense fundamentals have been lost in the rest of the league. This would never have worked 20 years ago when defenders weren't tripping over each other and not knowing where to throw the ball

Sounds like they watched Moneyball and just decided to play baseball instead of having a HR derby.

Small Ball is the best ball. Putting the ball in play on the ground. Making the other team make a play. Walks are as good as hits. Bunt. Hit the other way. Steal. Putting a man in scoring position. Take a strike. Hit to right (or left) behind the runner. What is the message Analytics tells you? It tells you that considering the strikeout rate and low batting averages, the game is dominated by pitching not because the pitching is so much better than it used to be but because the hitters aren't hitting. Example: the other night the Phillies are trailing 3-1. Turner is up with one out in the ninth. The count goes to 2-0. The Phillies need base runners, right? Next pitch is a slider that breaks way off the plate. Turner swings. Misses. Strike one. Now the count is 2-1. Should be 3-0. Next pitch, Turner fouls it off. Suppose he's taking? Maybe the count goes to 3-1. We'll never know. Next pitch. Popup. Out. Two down. Also, he had struck out three previous times at bat. Trea Turner, the Phillies lead off hitter, is hitting .225. To put Turner in perspective, Bobby Wine, the 1960's great glove poor hitting shortstop, had a lifetime batting average of .215. The team that best exemplifies small ball was the LA Dodgers of the sixties. They won the pennant is 63, 65, and 66. They also had great pitching with two stoppers Koufax and Drysdale. My point is, you can win 66% of your games, 100 wins +/-, playing small ball with two very good pitchers.

@dennisdoddcbs Weird, who would have thought not striking out is good

@LukeEasterling Again? Remind me when Tampa has ever won anything? An absolute nothing burger of a franchise

The Rays are what I’ve used as my inspiration for my Fantasy Football League. I just have to be 2% smarter than the rest of my league and we aren’t exactly a bunch of Yale and Harvard graduates 😂 🧑‍🎓

It’s all good now. They’ll lose first round of the playoffs. At some point you gotta hit home runs in the postseason We’ll see. Still fun.

@BaseballDoesnt The Milwaukee Brewers are the reason I'll never fall for the launch angle/hard hit ball crap. They relied on the homerun ball year after year. Hit over 215 HRs multiple times and even hit 250 in 2019. When the ball isn't flying and your team can't find ways to generate runs-

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Teams should have options. You can’t rely solely on launch angle and HH%. Some days you will face guys that are unhitable and you will have to find a way. Bunts, steals, hit and runs. Tampa bay rays are doing a lot of these things and maybe that’s why they’re winning so much bc they have options. Unless you’re the Braves, they rake 😂

baseball in its purest form

They found a “Market Deficiency” doesn’t mean they found the “best way to win” like the boomers in the comments think. If all teams looked for these players you know what the rays would look for? That’s right guys they project to hit home runs via laugh angle and Exit velocity

“They made Nick Martinez a starter” is quite the stretch. His MO has long been a starting pitcher who has the flexibility and ability to cover bulk innings out of the bullpen. He started 26 games last year. The Rays didn’t convert him to anything.

Analytics die in playoffs if you don’t have good coaching, good pitching, and hitters who can’t hit good pitching

Need to check your history a little bit. look up those late 70s early '80s St Louis Cardinals. And a little thing called "Whitey ball"

> new strategy > make contact > dont strikeout

Just luck. It will regress. They aren't good.

I see you've discovered Guardsball.

So basically they're copying the Guardians from the last several seasons?

You mean what the Guardians started doing 5 years ago??

does the fact no one gives a fuck about the rays give them an edge? surely they are an incredibly well run org and find the right guys, but i have to imagine the stress free atmosphere is helpful in the early stages of rebuilding a player because no one gives a fuck.

This is interesting. But also ... 1) Smallish sample: Only 53 games so far, less than 1/3 of season. 2) Pythagorean is 29-24, far above actual 34-19. So reversion to the mean is likely. 3) They are barely above average in hitting: Team OPS+ of 104, total Rbat of just +4.

Love it but it’s completely unsustainable. Also with an outlier of 2020 (barely a real season) teams that play like this, rays and brewers, have great regular seasons and then get run in the playoffs by actually great teams. It’ll happen again

IDK what Kyle Snyder is doing with the pitchers, but I hope he can maintain it. As for the small ball, ball-in-play, speed, aggressive base running offense—well, that's so much fun to watch. (cont)

Nick Martinez was a full time starter for both the Padres and the Reds wtf?!?

No they’re just playing baseball the way it was played before some jackass emphasized Launch Angle and W.a.R.